Climate Structure, Phenology, and Change in Pinot Noir Wine Regions

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

ASEV Joint Gregory V. Jones Burgundy-California-Oregon Dept of Environmental Studies Symposium Southern Oregon University June 16-17, 2008 Portland, Oregon Talk Outline

¾ Pinot Noir Regions, Climates, and Vine Phenology ¾ Climate Change, Viticulture, and Wine Gregory¾ Observed Trends V. Jones, PhD ¾ Projected Trends ¾ Summary/Conclusions Growing Degree-Days in Pinot Noir Regions 350 Tamar Valley 988 Otago 1006 300 Orange 1128 Salem 1177 Marlborough 1199 250 McMinnville 1210 Santa Maria 1298 Burgundy 1319 200 Mornington 1320 Yarra Valley 1356 Carneros 1379 150 GregorySanta Rita 1456 V. Jones, PhD Russian River 1468

100 Growing Degree-Days (10°CDegree-Days Growing base)

50

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month (NH: Jan-Dec; SH: Jul-Jun) Unpublished Precipitation in Pinot Noir Regions

1200 70 Annual Precipitation % Growing Season to Annual Growing Season Precipitation 60 1000

50 800

40

600

30

400 GregoryPrecipitation (mm) V. Jones, PhD 20 % Growing Season to Annual %

200 10

0 0 Otago Salem Orange Carneros Burgundy Santa Rita Mornington McMinnville Yarra Valley Santa Maria Marlborough Tamar Valley Tamar Russian River

Unpublished Comparison of Pinot Noir Phenology

Burgundy Willamette North Coast

Apr 18th (10) Apr 10th (12) Mar 20th (15)

June 14th (10) June 15th (10) May 25th (14) Gregory V. Jones, PhD

Aug 9th (8) Aug 17th (9) Aug 4th (12)

Sept 26th (10) Oct 1st (12) Sept 15th (13)

Jones, 2005; plus meta-analysis ¾ All varieties have inherent climatic thresholds for optimum quality and production characteristics ¾ Pinot Noir exhibits one of the most narrow climatic niches for premium quality Gregoryproduction V. Jones, PhD

Jones, 2006 ¾ All varieties have inherent climatic thresholds for optimum Russian quality and production River characteristics ¾ Pinot Noir exhibits one of the most Tamar narrow climatic niches Valley for premium quality Gregoryproduction V. Jones, PhD ¾ From what we know Burgundy about today’s Pinot Noir regions, growing season average temperatures range from ~14-16°C, or ~ a 2°C climatic niche

Jones, 2006 Climate Change, Viticulture, and Wine ¾ Changes in average climate structure and variability ¾ Warmer and longer growing seasons ¾ Warmer dormant periods ¾ Reduced frost damage (in some areas) ¾ Altered ripening profiles Gregory¾ Earlier phenology (plant V. growth Jones, events) PhD ¾ Altered disease/pest timing and severity ¾ Changes in soil fertility and erosion

¾ CO2 fertilization … but wine effects? ¾ Water availability and timing of irrigation (some places drier, some wetter) Observed Climate Trends for the Western U.S. 1948-2005 and Burgundy 1945-2005

Willamette North Central Variable Burgundy Valley Coast Coast

Growing Season Tavg +1.1°C +0.9°C +0.9°C +1.3°C GregoryRipening Period Tavg V.+1.2°C Jones,+0.5°C +0.6°C PhD+1.1°C Growing Degree-Days +215 +171 +160 +165

Precipitation (Ann & GS) NS NS NS NS

Additional trends include – earlier last spring frosts, later first fall frosts, longer frost-free periods, and increases in the number of days above 35°C

during the growing season and ripening period

Jones, 2005; Jones et al, 2005 Observed Degree-Day Changes in McMinnville 1600

1400

) 1200

°C base 1000 10 ( Days Days - 800 McMinnville GDD Trend ~35 units/decade Gregory600 V. Jones,R 2 = PhD0.36

Growing Degree 400

200

0 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year

Jones, 2005 Observed Phenological Changes in Burgundy

300

280

260 Harvest Date – 26 Sept. 2003 240

220

200 Véraison Date – 9 August

180

Gregory160 V. Jones, PhD Day of the Year

140 Floraison Date – 14 June

120

100

80 Bud Break Date – 18 April

60 1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 Year Jones et al, 2005 Observed Changes in the Bud Break to Harvest Period in Burgundy

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

Chabin and Madelin, 2007

Observed Elevational Changes in Burgundy

Gregory V. Jones, PhD

~ 200 m elevation difference

Chabin and Madelin, 2007

Climate Model Predictions HadCM3

1950-2049 observed and modeled growing season temperature changes

Trends range from Gregory V. Jones,2.5-3.7°C PhD

Average growing season temperatures increase 1.8°C between the 1950- 1999 and 2000-2049 50-year periods

Jones et al, 2005 Observed and Projected Average Growing Season Temperatures in Burgundy 4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0 Gregory0.0 V. Jones, PhD -1.0

-2.0 Burgundy Growing Season Tavg Trend ~0.26°C/decade (2.6°C overall) R2 = 0.41 -3.0

-4.0 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 Growing Anomaly Average Temperature Season (°C) from 1950-1999 average Year

Jones et al, 2005 Burgundy’s past and projected future climate change … Average growing 1955-1980 season temperatures 1980-2005

from 1955-1980 where 2005-2030 on average like the coldest years during 1980-2005 GregoryAverage growing V. Jones, PhD season temperatures in 2005-2030 are projected to be like the Burgundy warmest of years during 1980-2005 Is 2003 an analog of future conditions? 2003

Jones, 2006 Summary ¾ Pinot Noir has a narrow climatic niche for best suitability, quality, and production ¾ Pinot Noir climates today are found at ~14-16°C (~1000-1500 GDD) ¾ Warming of ~1.0-1.9°C (~160-220 GDD) Gregoryhas occurred overV. the Jones, last 40-50 years PhD in Pinot Noir regions ¾ Grapevines have responded with earlier phenology of ~5-10 days per 1°C of warming, plus a shortening of the intervals between events Summary ¾ Meta-Analysis: ~1.1-4.5°C warming in wine regions globally by 2050 ¾ Best estimate ~1.7-2.2°C with plants likely showing an additional 9-22 day shift ¾ Warming of this magnitude would push Gregorymany existing V.regions Jones, outside of what PhD is considered suitable today ¾ Uncertainty issues include: ƒ Climate system sensitivity ƒ Emission scenario (already at upper end) ƒ Changes in extremes (↑ frost, heat, precipitation, etc) ƒ Variability in the climate system (↑↑) Conclusions

¾ Climates have clearly changed … along with temperature we are seeing more evidence of coherent changes in many aspects of Earth’s systems ¾ What is absolutely clear from history is that the viticultural climates of tomorrow will not be like the those of today … terroirs as we know them will change ¾ We view our social and economic systems as static Gregorytoday, however history V. shows Jones, that change should PhD be expected ¾ The wine industry has tremendous adaptive capacity, but can not achieve it without agreeing there is an issue and developing clear strategies associated with a portfolio of research, policy, adaptation, and mitigation Acknowledgements

¾ Jean-Pierre Chabin and Malika Madelin, Université de Bourgogne ¾ Allen Holstein, Argyle Winery ¾ Molly Hodgins, Chehalem ¾ Joel Myers, VineTenders Gregory¾ Glenn McGourty, UC V. Extension Jones, PhD ¾ Zac Robinson, Husch Vineyards ¾ Bob Gibson, Roederer Estate ¾ Mike Trought, Marlborough Wine Research Centre ¾ Andrew Hall, Charles Sturt University ¾ Kevin Bell, Mornington Peninsula Vignerons Association