Volume 6 January 2009
Contents INTRODUCTION
The Unemployment Bulletin provides a monthly update on unemployment data for Part 1: Summary Gloucestershire, the South West region and the United Kingdom. It is produced by A summary of the Economic section of the County Council Chief Executive’s Support Unit unemployment data at Research Team. The data is sourced from the Office for National Statistics via district, County, regional Nomis (www.nomis.co.uk). and national level 1 The claimant count measures the number of people claiming unemployment- Part 2: County related benefit (currently Job Seeker’s allowance). The claimant rate is the number Unemployment figures of claimants as a proportion of the working age population. for the County compared to the South West and PART 1: SUMMARY the rest of the UK 3 The claimant rate in Gloucestershire was 2.7% in January 2009. This was an Part 3: Districts increase of 0.4% on the December 2008 figure. The rate has been continually A comparative break increasing since July 2008. Both the UK and the South West rates also increased down of unemployment by 0.4% between December 2008 and January 2009. Gloucestershire’s rate figures by district 4 remains slightly above the South West average of 2.5%, but 0.7% lower than the UK average of 3.4%.
Part 4: Wards Further breakdown of The claimant count in Gloucestershire in January 2009 rose by 1,259 people. The unemployment figures amount of people claiming in January 2009 was 15% higher than the number in by ward: December 2008 equalling a 15% increase in the South West and 11% for the UK. Cheltenham 6 The claimant count in Gloucestershire has been increasing since July 2008, it was Cotswolds 8 84% higher in January 2009 than at the same point in the previous year as shown Forest of Dean 10 in the graph below. Gloucester 12 Stroud 14 Gloucestershire claimants - Month on Month and Year on Year change Tewkesbury 16 90% 80% 70% 60% Part 5: Young People 50% Data about Young 40% 30% People Not in Education, 20% Employment or Training 10% % change 0% (NEET) -10% 18 -20% -30% -40% -50% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 08 Jan 09 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year Produced by:
The Research Team (Economics) Source: ONS Crown Copyright Reserved Chief Executive Support Unit Gloucestershire County Council February 2009 Unemployment Bulletin Page 2
DISTRICTS AT A GLANCE
At a glance unemployment information grouped by district. Includes:
Claim count: Total number of people claiming Job Seekers Allowance in January 2009 Compared to last month: How much larger/smaller January’s claim count is compared to November, expressed as a % Claimant rate: The % of working population claiming Job Seekers Allowance in January 2009 Highest claiming ward: The ward with the highest claim count in that district
CHELTENHAM BOROUGH GLOUCESTER CITY Claim count: 2,225 Claim count: 2,579 Compared to last month: +12.5% Compared to last month: +16.1% Claimant rate: 3.2% Claimant rate: 3.6% Highest claiming ward Hesters Way Highest claiming ward Westgate (6.3%) (6.9%)
COTSWOLD DISTRICT STROUD DISTRICT Claim count: 783 Claim count: 1,369 Compared to last month: +22.3% Compared to last month: +16.5% Claimant rate: 1.6% Claimant rate: 2.1% Highest claiming ward Cirencester Highest claiming ward Central Watermoor (4%) (4.3%)
FOREST OF DEAN TEWKESBURY BOROUGH Claim count: 1,473 Claim count: 1,069 Compared to last month: +12.8% Compared to last month: +16.3% Claimant rate: 3% Claimant rate: 2.3% Highest claiming ward Cinderford West Highest claiming ward Tewkesbury Priors (5.6%) Park (5.2%)
YOUNG PEOPLE NOT IN EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT OR TRAINING (NEET)
A the end of January 2009 there were 636 young people aged 16-18 not in education, employment or training in Glouces- tershire. This figure translates into an adjusted (*) 16-18 NEET population of 3.7%. This has remained in line with the strong performance of 3.9% at the end of November and December 2008 and, given the current economic climate, is very positive and results from continual tracking and enhanced support for young people from staff within Connexions. Unemployment Bulletin Page 3
PART 2: UK, SW AND GLOUCESTERSHIRE INDICATORS The unemployment situation in Gloucestershire compared to the South West and the UK.
Claimant Rate
Figure 1: Claimant Rate for Gloucestershire, the South West and UK over the past year
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
Rate (%) 1.5 United Kingdom
1.0 South West
0.5 Gloucestershire
0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v Dec 08 Jan 09 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
Figure 1 shows the claimant rate for Gloucestershire at 2.7% in January 2009. The rate has remained slightly higher than the South West average over the past year, but persistently lower by approximately 0.7% against the UK average during the same period. January 2009 represented a 0.4% increase on December 2008.
Claimant Count Table 1: Analysis of UK, South West and Gloucestershire Claimant Counts Area Claimant Count % change on Average % Consecutive in January 2009 December 2008 increase over the months last six months increasing
UK 1,282,645 11.2 5.6 9
South West 76,814 15.1 8.1 9
Gloucestershire 9,498 15.3 7.2 10
Table 1 shows that in January 2009, the numbers of claimants in Gloucestershire was 15.3% higher than the numbers in December 2008. This is 4.1% higher than the UK figure and 0.2% higher than the South West .
The average growth in claimants in Gloucestershire for the six months to January 2009 was 7.2%. This is 1.6% higher than the UK average and 0.9% lower than the South West region. Unemployment Bulletin Page 4
PART 3: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT ANALYSIS Claimant Rate and Claimant Count Figure 2: Claimant Rate (%) across Gloucestershire - January 2009
4.0
3.5 Gloucestershire 2.7% 3.0
2.5
% 2.0
1.5
1.0 0.5 3.2 1.6 3.0 3.6 2.1 2.3 0.0
ld r o an te ury w es b nham ts f De Stroud te o kes el C Glouc w Ch Te Forest o Figure 2 shows the claimant rate for January 2009 in Gloucestershire. Every district in Gloucestershire experienced an increase in the claimant rate between December 2008 and January 2009. Figure 3: Total claimants over the past year across Gloucestershire Districts
10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 Cotswold 5,000 Number Tewkesbury 4,500 4,000 Stroud 3,500 Forest of Dean 3,000 2,500 Cheltenham 2,000 1,500 1,000 Gloucester 500 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 08 Jan 09 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
Figure 3 shows the overall claimant count for Gloucestershire over the past year. It demonstrates the gap that is widening across all the districts as the UK economy continues in recession. The widest gaps unsurprisingly reflect the urban areas of Cheltenham and Gloucester. Unemployment Bulletin Page 5 Table 2: Analysis of Gloucestershire and District Claimant Counts
Claimant Count in % Change on Average % increase over Consecutive months Area January 2009 December 2008 the last six months increasing Cheltenham 2,225 12.5 6.1 10 Cotswold 783 22.3 9.1 7 Forest of Dean 1,473 12.8 8.8 8 Gloucester 2,579 16.1 6.1 4 Stroud 1,369 16.5 7.9 4 Tewkesbury 1,069 16.3 8.0 3 Gloucestershire 9,498 15.3 7.2 10
Table 2 shows the change in the claimant count in January 2009 compared to December 2008. The January 2009 increase was experienced across all six districts. Cotswold District showed the greatest percentage increase from the previous month and the highest average percentage increase over the last six months. Unemployment Bulletin Page 6 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS This section covers the six districts and a comparison of their constituent wards.
4.1 Cheltenham Borough
Claimant Rate and Claimant Count
Figure 4: Cheltenham Borough claimant rate over the last year
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
8 8 08 0 08 08 08 08 0 l v p 08 o ay Ju ug 08 e Oct 08 ec Jan Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr M Jun A S N D Jan 09 Figure 4 shows the claimant rate in Cheltenham was at its highest for over a year at 3.2%. The rate has been climbing for nine consecutive months. Figure 5: Cheltenham Borough claimants - Month on Month and Year on Year change
80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v Dec 08 Jan 09 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
Figure 5 shows the claimant count continually increasing each month since April 2008. In addition, claimant counts have increased every month compared to the same month in the previous year since July 2008. Unemployment Bulletin Page 7 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS
4.1 Cheltenham Borough continued...
Figure 6: Claimant rates across Cheltenham Borough wards - January 2009
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0 Cheltenham 3.2%
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
s ll e n k k y i e 's 's o r wn r ille g g l r v H e la ints pt Pa o t l down a au bank ark's s Vil S P g M Oakley s Way am eddings Pit Col r h lton Pa R on All St rin St te k rlton King r Prestbury Lan d p St Pete c a Battled Warden n S e h Up Hatherle i Hes L C Cha Sw
ll and The
Benha
Figure 6 shows the claimant rates for Cheltenham Borough wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the Borough, with eight wards above the average of 3.2%.
Table 3: Analysis of Claimant Count at Cheltenham Borough ward level - January 2009
District Ward Rate Rank* bottom 10% of county Cheltenham Leckhampton 1.2 15 first quartile of county Cheltenham Park 1.4 24 second quartile of county Cheltenham Charlton Kings 1.6 42 third quartile of county Cheltenham Battledown 1.7 51 fourth quartile of county Cheltenham Charlton Park 1.7 51 highest 10% of county Cheltenham Prestbury 1.7 51 * 1 = “best” and 142 = “worst” Cheltenham Up Hatherley 1.7 51 Cheltenham Benhall and The Reddings 2.1 75 Cheltenham Pittville 2.4 89 Cheltenham Warden Hill 2.5 91 Cheltenham College 2.7 94 Cheltenham Lansdown 2.9 102 Cheltenham Swindon Village 3.5 114 Cheltenham All Saints 3.6 116 Cheltenham St Paul's 4.0 122 Cheltenham Springbank 4.4 127 Cheltenham St Mark's 4.7 130 Cheltenham St Peter's 5.0 132 Cheltenham Oakley 6.2 139 Cheltenham Hesters Way 6.3 140 Table 3 shows overall claimant rates for Cheltenham Borough wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire. Unemployment Bulletin Page 8 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS
4.2 Cotswold District
Claimant Rate and Claimant Count Figure 7: Cotswold District claimant rate over the last year
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
8 8 8 8 8 08 08 0 0 08 09 n ul 0 v J Oct 08 Ja Feb Mar 08 Apr 0 May 08 Jun Aug 0 Sep No Dec 08 Jan
Figure 7 shows the claimant rate in Cotswold District was at its highest for over a year at 1.6%. The rate has been increasing since June 2008. Figure 8: Cotswold District claimants - Month on Month and Year on Year change
120.0% 110.0% 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v Dec 08 Jan 09 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
Figure 8 shows the claimant count increasing since July 2008. In addition, claimant counts are higher compared to the same month the previous year since July 2008. For example, in January 2009, the claimant count was over 117% higher than it was in January 2008. Unemployment Bulletin Page 9 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS
4.2 Cotswold District continued...
Figure 9: Claimant rates across Cotswold District wards - January 2009
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 Cotswold 1.6% 2.0 1.0 0.0
k n h e e n r ns ng ley ay ell ad ter o k w ad e ton Par ni w ridg each bury -Coln Ermi Wa hl t er r Park moo smeet er ite chl mpt e r Ave Bloc h Fairford a Te er at Le he- H at pney issingto Chedwort Fosse Sandy Nort Rive R W -t W Churn Valley Three Rivers rd- Am Beacon-Stow on-W fo Thames H on er Chest Grumbolds Ash Campden-Vale t t at ps Cirencest tr ton- Moreton-in-Marsh cester S ur Cirencester Beeches r Kem o rences en B te Ci Cir
rences Ci Figure 9 shows the claimant rates for Cotswold District wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the District. Nine wards lie above the District average of 1.6% Table 4: Analysis of Claimant Count at Cotswold District ward level - January 2009
District Ward Rate Rank* bottom 10% of county Cotswolds Churn Valley 0.6 1 first quartile of county Cotswolds Ampney-Coln 0.8 3 second quartile of county Cotswolds Grumbolds Ash 0.8 3 third quartile of county Cotswolds Riversmeet 0.9 6 fourth quartile of county Cotswolds Three Rivers 0.9 6 Cotswolds Ri ssingtons 1.0 8 highest 10% of county Cotswolds Campden-Vale 1.1 10 Cotswolds Water Park 1.1 10 * 1 = “best” and 142 = “worst” Cotswolds Ermin 1.2 15 Cotswolds Avening 1.4 24 Cotswolds Beacon-Stow 1.4 24 Cotswolds Blockley 1.4 24 Cotswolds Chedworth 1.4 24 Cotswolds Cirencester Stratton-Whiteway 1.4 24 Cotswolds Fosseridge 1.4 24 Cotswolds Sandywell 1.4 24 Cotswolds Kempsford-Lechlade 1.5 33 Cotswolds Thames Head 1.5 33 Cotswolds Fairford 1.6 42 Cotswolds Bourton-on-the-Water 1.7 51 Cotswolds Hampton 1.7 51 Cotswolds Moreton-in-Marsh 1.7 51 Cotswolds Northleach 1.8 63 Cotswolds Tetbury 1.8 63 Cotswolds Cirencester Beeches 2.1 75 Cotswolds Cirencester Che sterton 2.3 83 Cotswolds Cirencester Park 3.0 103 Cotswolds Cirencester Watermoor 4.0 122 Table 4 shows overall claimant rates for Cotswold District wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire. Unemployment Bulletin Page 10 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS
Claimant Rate and Claimant Count
Figure 10: Forest of Dean District claimant rate over the last year
3.5 3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5 0.0
8 8 8 9 0 08 08 0 0 08 0 t v pr 08 n ul n u J Oc a Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 A May 08 J Aug 08 Sep No Dec J
Figure 10 shows the claimant rate in the Forest of Dean was at its highest for over a year at 3%. The rate has been increasing since July 2008. Figure 11: Forest of Dean District claimants - Month on Month and Year on Year change
FOREST OF DEAN CLAIMANTS - MONTH ON MONTH AND YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE
100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No v Dec 08 Jan 09 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
Figure 11 shows the claimant count has increased since May 2008, and that claimant count compared to the same month the previous year has been higher since June 2008. The number of claimants in January 2009 exceeded that of January 2008 by around 95%, Unemployment Bulletin Page 11 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS
4.3 Forest of Dean District continued...
Figure 12: Claimant rates across Forest of Dean District wards - January 2009
CLAIMANT RATES ACROSS FOREST OF DEAN WARDS - JANUARY 2009
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Forest of Dean 3.0% 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
y y n r e n ill t t m e o o r ell ral s s a ury l n ton w w .. East t a H am a e h b r ock k s . n e y e E ntral tpury n a m North A iavels lo t h e d W r untle e ic r il s t r rr Br y e d H d m B y B P a e r Ha i Dy h e u Be ford East n T West ed Tibbertd s Woola St We R e d rfo d R n li d ent C y e and n a g n w d L and Longhope Lydn ent Nor n Col d m a n and a a and Ruspidge and Drybrook in a ow E n w Ne k n n ColefordCinderford C C East h m r d d o o a a r n n t e e e a r Ne ro urc b u d b h wnha s h lsfield and wla lb n d tled C Blaisdone e e y a y t urc N A L Li tcheld N , i h ew M tc H n Bromes nhall ri gto e h in Ox C lv A
Figure 12 shows the claimant rates for Forest of Dean District wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the District. Ten wards are above the District average of 3.0% Table 5: Analysis of Claimant Count at Forest of Dean District ward level - January 2009
District Ward Rate Rank* bottom 10% of county Forest Hartpury 0.6 1 first quartile of county Forest Churcham and Huntley 0.8 3 second quartile of county Forest Tidenham 1.0 8 third quartile of county Forest Blaisdon and Longhope 1.6 42 fourth quartile of county Forest Newnham and Westbury 1.7 51 Forest Redmarley 1.7 51 highest 10% of county Forest Tibberton 1.8 63 Forest Bromesberrow and Dymock 1.9 69 * 1 = “best” and 142 = “worst” Forest Christchurch and English Bicknor 2.2 80 Forest Hewelsfield and Woolaston 2.2 80 Forest Lydney North 2.2 80 Forest Awre 2.3 83 Forest Newland and St Briavels 2.3 83 Forest Pillowell 2.5 91 Alvington, Aylburton and West Lyd- Forest ney 2.7 94 Forest Oxenhall and Newent North East 2.7 94 Forest Newent Central 2.8 98 Forest Lydbrook and Ruardean 3.1 106 Forest Littledean and Ruspidge 3.3 110 Forest Mitcheldean and Drybrook 3.5 114 Forest Berry Hill 3.8 120 Forest Coleford East 3.9 121 Forest Bream 4.1 124 Forest Lydney Ea st 4.6 129 Forest Coleford Central 4.7 130 Forest Cinderford Ea st 5.1 133 Forest Cinderford West 5.6 137 Table 5 shows overall claimant rates for the Forest of Dean District wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire. Unemployment Bulletin Page 12 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS
4.4 Gloucester City
Claimant Rate and Claimant Count
Figure 13: Gloucester City claimant rate over the last year
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
8 8 8 8 8 0 08 08 08 0 08 0 08 08 09 0 t b pr n Jul 0 ug ep Oc Jan Fe Mar A May Ju A S Nov Dec 08 Jan
Figure 13 shows the claimant rate for Gloucester City was at the highest point for over a year at 3.6%. The rate has been increasing since May 2008. Figure 14: Gloucester City claimants - Month on Month and Year on Year change
90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 08 Jan 09 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
Figure 14 shows the claimant count has always been increasing or remaining steady for over a year. Unemployment Bulletin Page 13 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS
4.4 Gloucester City continued...
Figure 15: Claimant rates across Gloucester City wards - January 2009
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 Gloucester 3.6% 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
s t h ge ur rt en ffley o tton land o cote ridge an wood o w wood le Abbey b n Tu ldc re s stgate c glev Gr o ed in e m ie M r on El evern Vale Bar F nd W T W Huc L S y d Podsmead e a Rob l an ge holm s ton Qued ing Bar tson and Quedgeley K a M Figure 15 shows the claimant rates for Gloucester City district wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the City. Seven wards are above the City average of 3.6% Table 6: Analysis of Claimant Count at Gloucester City ward level - January 2009
District Ward Rate Rank* bottom 10% of county first quartile of county Gloucester Hucclecote 1.3 21 second quartile of county Gloucester Abbey 1.7 51 third quartile of county Gloucester Longlevens 1.7 51 fourth quartile of county Gloucester Elmbridge 2.0 71 highest 10% of county Gloucester Quedgeley Severn Vale 2.1 75 Gloucester Grange 2.8 98 * 1 = “best” and 142 = “worst” Gloucester Barnwood 3.1 106 Gloucester Tuffley 3.3 110 Gloucester Quedgeley Fieldcourt 3.7 118 Gloucester Kingsholm and Wotton 4.4 127 Gloucester Moreland 5.2 134 Gloucester Barton and Tredworth 5.4 136 Gloucester Matson and Robinswood 5.7 138 Gloucester Podsmead 6.3 140 Gloucester Westgate 6.9 142
Table 6 shows overall claimant rates for Gloucester City wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire. Unemployment Bulletin Page 14 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS
4.5 Stroud District Claimant Rate and Claimant Count
Figure 16: Stroud District claimant rate over the last year
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
8 8 8 0 08 0 0 09 r 08 l a y g n a Ju Oct a Jan 08 Feb 08 M Apr 08 M Jun 08 Au Sep 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 J
Figure 16 shows the claimant rate for Stroud District was at 2.1%, the highest it has been for over two years. Figure 17: Stroud District claimants - Month on Month and Year on Year change
100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 08 Jan 09 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
Figure 17 shows that when compared to the same month in the previous year, claimant counts have been increasing since July 2008. The January 2009 figure was 91% higher than it was during January 2008. Unemployment Bulletin Page 15 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY AND DISTRICT ANALYSIS
4.5 Stroud District continued... Figure 18: Claimant rates across Stroud District wards - January 2009
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Stroud 2.1% 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
y e h t y l y k e d n ys g s th p e y e le ic o er gh e i p ale rds k nds se le ley s v u l ster a c init u s anhill l ntra -Ed troud e V a Wes r g e Bi d Ul swo m East swor wi pl Tr ho Va Slad n g Se a er halford l Thru eon d U Du Pa C C Stan d C Standai L ar Berkeley ne Painsw in odboro N ver S H Cam o K R he -un nd O St St Cainscross T a ton n Coaley a to Minchinhampton g Upton Wot tin s Farmhill and Ea Amberley and Woodch Figure 18 shows the claimant rates in Stroud District wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the District and ten of the wards are above the District average of 2.1%. Table 7: Analysis of Claimant Count at Stroud District ward level - January 2009 District Ward Rate Rank* bottom 10% of county Stroud Bisley 1.1 10 Stroud Painswick 1.1 10 first quartile of county Stroud Coaley and Uley 1.2 15 second quartile of county Stroud Kingswood 1.2 15 third quartile of county Stroud Severn 1.3 21 fourth quartile of county Stroud Cam East 1.5 33 Stroud Rodborough 1.5 33 highest 10% of county Stroud The Stanleys 1.5 33 Stroud Wotton-under-Edge 1.5 33 * 1 = “best” and 142 = “worst” Stroud Chalford 1.6 42 Stroud Eastington and Standish 1.6 42 Stroud Nailsworth 1.6 42 Stroud Over Stroud 1.6 42 Stroud Thrupp 1.7 51 Stroud Amberley and Woodchester 1.8 63 Stroud Vale 1.8 63 Stroud Upton St Leonards 1.9 69 Stroud Hardwicke 2.0 71 Stroud Uplands 2.0 71 Stroud Minchinhampton 2.1 75 Stroud Berkeley 2.3 83 Stroud Cam West 2.3 83 Stroud Trinity 2.7 94 Stroud Stonehouse 2.8 98 Stroud Cainscross 3.0 103 Stroud Dursley 3.1 106 Stroud Farmhill and Paganhill 3.3 110 Stroud Valley 3.3 110 Stroud Slade 4.2 125 Stroud Central 4.3 126 Table 7 shows overall claimant rates for Stroud District wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire. Unemployment Bulletin Page 16 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY DISTRICT AND WARD ANALYSIS
4.6 Tewkesbury District Claimant Rate and Claimant Count Figure 19: Tewkesbury District claimant rate over the last year
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
8 8 8 8 9 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 r y ct 08 an eb a Jul 0 O an J F Mar 08 Ap M Jun 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Nov Dec J
Figure 19 shows the claimant rate for Tewkesbury District was at 2.3%, the highest it has been for over a year.
Figure 20: Tewkesbury District claimants - Month on Month and Year on Year change
80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 08 Jan 09 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
% change on previous month % change on previous year
Figure 20 shows that claimant counts have been increasing since June 2008. The rate in January 2009 figure was 78% higher than it was in January 2008. Unemployment Bulletin Page 17 PART 4: LOCAL AUTHORITY AND DISTRICT ANALYSIS
4.6 Tewkesbury District continued... Figure 21: Claimant rates across Tewkesbury District wards - January 2009
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Tewkesbury 2.3% 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
e ll t f n g ill e l e 's y h n n Hi if w in t b n e t o rk rn rd o n H Hil rl to a u a t y e oh e gt it P o ve Wes w b on om th hael's in M s sb e e Bridge C ew cleco t c t J a orthway ic d r' I le w n N T m c h ith C a o S H N M ur io lto ry o Hu inc n n eve GrangeBrockwor t h w Pr H a u C BadgeworthOxen w e S Cleev W o w W sb o Cl ve S ry e hd D e own u ith k c h T it le y sb am with w w ur C r ke n h h w Te C bu w Churchdown Brookfieldrc rth s igh u o e Te H ch w k h ew s ns T A In Figure 21 shows the claimant rates in Tewkesbury District wards. The red line represents the average claimant rate across the District and eight of the wards are above the District average of 2.3%. Table 8: Analysis of Claimant Count at Tewkesbury District level - January 2009 District Ward Rate Rank* bottom 10% of county Tewkesbury Isbourne 1.1 10 first quartile of county Tewkesbury Cleeve Hill 1.2 15 second quartile of county Tewkesbury Cleeve West 1.2 15 third quartile of county Tewkesbury Churchdown Brookfield 1.3 21 fourth quartile of county Tewkesbury Highnam with Haw Bridge 1.4 24 highest 10% of county Tewkesbury Ashchurch with Walton Cardiff 1.5 33 Tewkesbury Tewkesbury Newtown 1.5 33 * 1 = “best” and 142 = “worst” Tewkesbury Twyning 1.5 33 Tewkesbury Coombe Hill 1.6 42 Tewkesbury Hucclecote 1.6 42 Tewkesbury Badgeworth 1.8 63 Tewkesbury Oxenton Hill 2.0 71 Tewkesbury Winchcombe 2.1 75 Tewkesbury Churchdown St John's 2.3 83 Tewkesbury Innsworth with Down Hatherley 2.4 89 Tewkesbury Cleeve Grange 2.5 91 Tewkesbury Brockworth 2.8 98 Tewkesbury Northway 3.0 103 Tewkesbury Cleeve St Michael's 3.2 109 Tewkesbury Shurdington 3.6 116 Tewkesbury Tewkesbury Town with Mitton 3.7 118 Tewkesbury Tewkesbury Prior's Park 5.2 134 Table 8 shows overall claimant rates for Tewkesbury District wards and their position relative to all wards in Gloucestershire. Unemployment Bulletin Page 18 PART 5: YOUNG PEOPLE NOT IN EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT OR TRAINING (NEET) IN GLOUCESTERSHIRE
Data provided by Prospects, the Connexions service in Gloucestershire on the situation of young people (16-18) in Gloucestershire who are not in education, employment or formal training.
Connexions Gloucestershire is required to report performance with the 16-18 age range against nationally defined criteria for counting the NEET group. The NEET group includes young people actively seeking education, employment or training as well as those young people who are either not yet ready or who are unable to access these opportunities because of their personal circumstances. The figures quoted below include young people in both of these categories.
SUMMARY
As at the end of January 2009 there were 636 young people aged 16-18 not in education, employment or training in Gloucestershire. This figure translates into an adjusted (*) 16-18 NEET population of 3.7%. This has remained in line with the strong performance of 3.9% at the end of November and December 2008 and, given the current economic climate, is very positive and results from continual tracking and enhanced support for young people from staff within Connexions.
Total NEET Group by District Area 31 January 2009 Cheltenham Cotswold Forest Gloucester Stroud Tewkesbury Total 148 NEET Group 50 92 181 103 62 636(*)
% NEET of
total 16-18 5.7% 1.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.3% 3.0% 3.7%(*) cohort
Targeted action
We are working closely with key stakeholders and partners to ensure that we provide the best possible support during these challenging times. We have already published evidence of the impact of the recession on NEET young people and please find detailed below some of the initiatives we have developed to maximise opportunities for young people in Gloucestershire;
FE retention and progression workshop - Connexions Gloucestershire and the local LSC co-hosted a very positive workshop with FE Colleges to discuss practical steps which can be taken to help retain more young people in Further Education. Further events are now being planned with Schools and Work Based Learning providers.
Service Level Agreement with Job Centre Plus – We have just signed a new SLA with Job Centre Plus which will further cement our positive relationship with this key partner. We are also looking at further programmes to offer support to 18 yr old NEETs.
Provision for young people at level 2 – We have successfully negotiated access to additional provision for young people who are already at level 2. This group of young people (approx 100) became NEET as an early impact of the recession and prompt support for this group will hopefully see them quickly re-engage with learning.
If you would like to receive any further information on Gloucestershire’s NEET strategy then please contact [email protected] or telephone 01452 426900
(*) Adjustment includes a proportion of young people aged 16-18 whose outcomes are not-known to Connexions Gloucestershire