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Presentation Outline Syrian Civil War Oral Presentation - Outline ● Introduction: ○ What is the Syrian Civil War and how did it GENERALLY start? ■ Started during protests against the oppressive Assad regime ● Violent suppression of these protests escalated into war ■ Since then it has turned into a complex and messy civil war with many sides ○ When did it happen? ■ Started in 2011 still going on ● fighting has slowed down recently ○ Who was involved in the war? ■ Assad regime: Oppressive regime that had been in power since 1970 ■ Rebel groups: People rising against the Assad regime ■ Kurds: People from eastern Syria also fighting against the Assad regime who wanted autonomy from the rest of the country ■ ISIS: Group that broke away from the rebels and started fighting against them and the Kurds ○ Who were key players (other countries) ■ Backing Assad: Iran, Russia, Hezbollah ● Iran: ○ Involvement ■ Iran was the main supporter and the first to get involved ■ Supporting loyal forces of Assad with money, weapons, and intelligence ■ Sent military advisers ■ Backing the militant group Hezbollah ■ Organized paramilitary militia ○ Motivations ■ Iran and Syria had a mutual defense pact before the Syrian Civil War began ■ Views Syrian Civil War as a way to expand regional influence ■ The Assad regime allows for Iran to fund Hezbollah (enemy of Israel) ● Russia: ○ Involvement ■ Deployed troops ■ Fighting against ISIS ■ Fighting against anti-Assad groups ■ Provided the Assad regime cover from UN resolutions ○ Motivations ■ Wants to secure influence in the Middle East ● Maintaining a military air base and a naval base ■ Wants to bolster Russia in the Middle East at the expense of the United States ● Hezbollah: ○ Involvement ■ Militia fighting alongside the Assad Regime ■ Backed by Iran ○ Motivations ■ Longtime ally of Syria ■ Fighting against Israel ■ Backing rebels: Turkey, USA, Gulf States, Jordan ● Turkey: ○ Involvement ■ Supported non-Kurdish opposition groups ■ Allowed opposition forces to enter the Turkey-Syria border ■ Fighting ISIS ■ Fighting against Kurds ○ Motivations ■ Focus on preventing Kurds from gaining autonomy in Syria ■ Considers U.S. backed Kurdish groups to be terrorist organizations ■ Turkey wants to create safe zones for the 3 million refugees which fled from Syria into its borders ● USA: ○ Involvement ■ Lead the coalition against ISIS with airstrikes ■ Provided air support and weapons to opposition groups in northern Syria ■ Deployed about 2,000 special forces to fight alongside the Syrian Democratic Forces ○ Motivations ■ Main goal is to destroy ISIS and other extremist groups in Syria ■ Seeks to halt Iranian influence and expansion in the middle east ■ Position on Assad is unclear: Obama did not support the Assad regime, Trump was more ambiguous in his views ● Gulf States: ○ Involvement ■ Broken ties with Syria ■ Sends money and weapons to rebels ● First through Turkey, then through Jordan ● Does this to counter Iran’s influence ■ Saudia Arabia specifically, has played a limited role in U.S. led opposition against ISIS ○ Motivations ■ Initially there was concern for the humanitarian issues facing the Syrian population ■ Motivations shifted to diminishing Iranaian influence in Syria ■ Want to replace Assad with pro-Saudi, anti-Iranian leader ● Jordan: ○ Involvement ■ Receives funds from Gulf States to fund rebels ■ Houses Syrian refugees ○ Motivations ■ Wants to create safe conditions in Syria to prompt the return of refugees ■ Wants to open borders for economic prosperity ○ Themes of our presentation on the war ■ Throughout the war there has been a sense of these other countries fighting for their own goals and Syria as their chess board ■ War is largely decided by foreign aid and power ■ Fear of committing to one side and upsetting the other leads to inaction, suffering, and “another Vietnam” ● This comes from the fact that so much of the war is dictated by foreign powers ■ These were also main themes in the Vietnam war ○ Thesis: ■ In a war-torn country, divided into supporters of an oppressive ruler and opposition forces comprised of unhappy and oppressed citizens, with inconsistent levels of U.S. involvement, the starkest contrast between the Syrian Civil War and the Vietnam War is Syria’s greater number of opposing forces, as well as the lack of consistent bounds and binds between them. Syria is a case study of the importance and repercussions of foreign aid, and what happens when foreign powers clash. ● Section 1: Context ○ The Arab Spring ■ When and why did it start: ● Followed by a 5-year drought, unemployment rates were at an all-time high, and things reached a boiling point ● People in the middle-east and north Africa were fed up with decades of oppressive rule ● Tunisian fruit vendor sparked protests in the Spring of 2011 ● Tunisia overthrew their government, followed by Egypt, and protests spread like wildfire ● Arabs demanded regime changes ○ Desired freedom and a better economic situation ○ They admired western liberty ■ Who was involved: ● Largely muslim countries were involved: Tunisia, Morroco, Syria, Libya, Egypt, and Bahrain ■ Impact on Syria: ● Teenage school boys began Syrian protests by spray painting a wall with the words “The people want the fall of the regime.” They were arrested and tortured ● March 11, 2011: pro-democracy protests begin ○ Peaceful protests in Damascus and Aleppo ○ Syria uses Egypt and Tunisia’s success as a model, and protests and coups spread ● Soon after, shots were fired into crowds and protesters were brutalized. Peaceful protest sparked into civil war ■ Resolution: ● Only Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya saw regime changes ● In Syria, ISIS ended up being almost wiped out, but Assad’s regime remains, and little has changed in favor of the rebels ● The biggest lasting outcome has been refugee crises across the region ○ Backlash to protesters, and the rise of opposition rebel groups ■ Assad security forces shot into crowds of protestors killing over a dozen ● Sparks protests across the entire country (only 45 days after the graffiti) ■ Clock tower massacre, was a pivotal point ● Half of Syria’s security forces defected (220,000) ■ Military arms depots became open to civilians ● Led to the rise of opposition groups ● The peaceful uprisings turned into an armed resistance ○ Why certain rebel groups failed (they did not have to means to fight) ■ Syrian rebel groups mostly failed because they were underfunded and disorganized ■ Without external support (foreign aid), they had little more than a unifying cause ■ This can be seen when Trump ends U.S. support to CIA program assisting rebels in 2017 ● Leads to problems again and lack of power, putting pressure on other Arab countries to support rebel groups in Syria ■ Rebel groups: ● Army of Islam ● Free Syrian Army ● Syrian National Coalition ● Syrian Democratic Council ● (among others) ■ Funded primarily by: (through the SNC) ● Gulf donors (Qatar, Saudia Arabia, Bahrain, etc.) ● Turkey ● The U.S. starting in 2013 ● Section 2: U.S. Involvement ○ Initial response and Hesitance to interfere ■ Imposed economic sanctions, withdrew diplomats, and called for Assad to resign - in essence, mostly just cut ties ■ Declared a “red line” in regards to the use of chemical weapons by Assad regime ■ Does not want to repeat mistakes like in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya ■ Administration was scared to fight Assad head on, and prioritized keeping conflict within Syrian borders ■ Fear of inciting violent conflict with Russia, who was heavily supporting Assad ○ First actions and initial deployment of troops ■ Assad used chemical weapons (killing 1429 people, of whom at least 426 were children), crossing Obama’s red line, and in response, the Obama Administration started funding rebel groups, providing them with arms ■ At first, only 50 special ops troops were deployed to Kurdish territory ● Similarly to Vietnam, these forces were deployed to help teach the Kurds how to fight, and train them in combat strategy ■ The primary purpose of these forces and the fighting early on was to help local Kurish and Arab forces to fight ISIS, rather than regime ○ Troops (and airstrikes) with Kurds against ISIS ■ 50 troops grows into 2,000, and they are all settled on the Syrian-Turkish border ■ US was launching hundreds of airstrikes at a time on Syrian soil, but not at Assad’s forces. Their primary target was ISIS ■ They did not fight Assad directly until he launched another chemical attack ○ Red line crossed and missiles fired against regime ■ Trump claimed that new chemical attack crossed many lines past Obama’s “red line,” and he orders the first airstrikes aimed at Assad’s territory ■ Still, Assad was not the primary target of US forces, and once ISIS was mostly gone, Trump withdrew troops ● Section 3: Other Foreign Powers and their Motivations (touch on UN and China/Russia vetoes) ○ Who else is involved and their motivations: ■ Israel: ● Involvement ○ Launched airstrikes on Hezbollah, and Iranian targets in Syria ○ Backed small rebel groups ● Motivations ○ Wants to prevent Iran from developing political and military presence on its borders ○ Wants to prevent a possible attack from Hezbollah, due to Hezbollah’s increase in missiles from Iran ■ Germany: ● Involvement ○ Flown surveillance flights over Syrian territory to support airstrikes against ISIS ○ Called upon Iran and Russia to stop support for Assad ○ Major funder of humanitarian aid to Syrian refugees ● Motivations ○ Wants to see defeat of ISIS ○ Opposes Assad regime ■ France: ● Involvement ○ Provided medical supplies and
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