POMEPS STUDIES 30 Te Politics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction September 2018 Contents Introduction ...................................................................................3 Seeing Like a State-builder: Replication of Donor Reconstruction Dilemmas in Syria .................8 Frances Z. Brown, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace & University of Oxford Reconstructing Authoritarianism: Te Politics and Political Economy of Postconflict Reconstruction in Syria ...........................14 Steven Heydemann, Smith College & Te Brookings Institution Legal Pluralism and Justice in Iraq after ISIL ......................................................22 Jacqueline Parry, Institute for Regional and International Studies, American University of Iraqi Sulaimani Physical and Societal (Re)construction in Nineveh post Islamic State ................................28 Dylan O’Driscoll, Humanitarian and Conflict Response Institute (HCRI), University of Manchester Postwar Reconciliation and Fragile Peace in Algeria ...............................................34 Caroline Abadeer, Minerva/Jennings Randolph Peace Scholar at the United States Institute of Peace Yuree Noh, Postdoctoral Research Fellow at Harvard University’s Middle East Initiative, Belfer Center Algeria’s Peace Process: Spoilers, Failures and Successes ............................................38 Dalia Ghanem-Yazbeck, Resident Scholar, Carnegie Middle East Center Lebanon and the fog of reconstruction ..........................................................44 Deen Sharp, Earth and Environment Sciences, City University of New York Libya’s Policing Sector: Te Dilemmas of Hybridity and Security Pluralism ..........................51 Frederic Wehrey, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Marshalling Order in Yemen: How Reconstruction Will Make or Break the Post-War Order ...........56 Peter Salisbury, Chatham House Tinking about Legality: What Memory Studies Can Contribute to Transitional Justice ...............60 Sune Haugbolle, Roskilde University Normalizing the Siege: Te ‘Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism’ and the Contradictions of Humanitarianism and Reconstruction ....................................65 Pietro Stefanini, Te Palestinian Return Centre Wartime Nonviolent Mass Protests and Post-Conflict Politics ......................................71 Reyko Huang, Texas A&M University Te Project on Middle East Political Science Te Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS) is a collaborative network that aims to increase the impact of political scientists specializing in the study of the Middle East in the public sphere and in the academic community. POMEPS, directed by Marc Lynch, is based at the Institute for Middle East Studies at the George Washington University and is supported by Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Henry Luce Foundation. For more information, see http://www.pomeps.org. 2 INTRODUCTION econstruction following the devastating wars and state failure which followed the Arab uprisings of 2011 has become an increasingly pressing issue.In Iraq, the liberation of territories from the IslamicR State came at great human and infrastructural cost. In Syria, the reconquest of territories by the regime of Bashar al-Asad has been accompanied by international discussions of modest steps towards reconstruction, after a war which generated more the half of the world’s refugees and internally displaced whilst sowing devastation across much of the country. Yemen has endured the near complete destruction of its infrastructure and economy, leaving much of the population at risk of starvation and disease. Libya is devastated by its multiple conflicts and the successive disintegration of what is left of its institutional structures. While none of these wars has yet fully ended, international and expert attention is increasingly focused on the impending challenges of reconstruction, repatriation and reconciliation. It is difficult to exaggerate the extent of the destruction which these wars have left behind. Tese wars have unfolded across multiple levels. Millions of people have been dispossessed from their homes, driven into exile at home or abroad. Infrastructure has been devastated, with many cities and towns utterly destroyed. National economies have evolved into local war economies. State and local institutions have been fundamentally reshaped. Communal polarization around sectarian or political identities has progressed to extreme levels. Entire communities have been severely impoverished as health and educational attainments plummet. And the individual trauma suffered by tens of millions of people afflicted by conflict and violence will have enduring psychological and developmental effects. Te reconstruction now being discussed is not just about physical or economic rebuilding. Reconstruction can never be separated from politics, and the looming choices will rarely be driven only by humanitarian or economic needs. Reconstruction will take place across a range of political contexts, from the brutally fierce restoration of the Syrian regime to the corrupt, and the sectarian and inefficient Iraqi system to the nearly nonexistent states of Libya and Yemen. External and local actors alike will get rich or be frozen out, accumulate social power or face marginalization. Amnesties could restore war criminals to positions of power, or transitional justice institutions could lead to their political exclusion. Across the region, the forms and modalities of reconstruction will shape a new political status quo with long lasting implications. In January 2018, POMEPS and the Carnegie Middle East Center convened a workshop in Beirut to discuss original research from a wide range of cases on the politics of post-conflict reconstruction. Workshop participants made no assumptions either that conflict had ended or that reconstruction would imminently begin. Rather they aimed to explore the interlinkages between reconstruction, reconciliation and repatriation focusing on regional examples. Some of the cases presented involved ongoing conflicts, the winding down of which could be seen flickering on the horizon. Others involved conflicts which ended decades ago, such as Algeria’s and Lebanon’s civil wars, allowing for a historical perspective.Te research featured in this collection focuses on very different dimensions of post-conflict situations, from the contestation of memory to the physical rebuilding of cities in rubble. Several key themes and questions emerged from the discussions: 3 Te Politics of Reconstruction Reconstruction is itself a loaded term, one which might smuggle in a wide range of veiled assumptions. Some might infer that reconstruction meant a rebuilding of the status quo ante, something which might be neither normatively desirable nor politically possible. In some cases, as in the Gaza mechanism discussed by Stefanini, policies labeled as reconstruction can actually be a vehicle for sustaining and perpetuating structures of domination. Saudi and UAE humanitarian assistance in Yemen can be seen as an effort to sustain support for the broader military effort. Others might see the push to begin thinking about reconstruction as a political drive to force an end to any viable support for the conflict itself. American and European discussions, for instance, about how they might “win” the reconstruction of Syria could be a face-saving way to move on from more than a half decade of attempting to win through war. Te Asad regime, certainly, views calls for reconstruction as a way of signaling the end of conflict and the beginning of his international rehabilitation. Some might also see a focus on reconstruction as a way to avoid dealing with the difficult issues of responsibility, especially in contexts such as Syria where the key party to the conflict has been signaled out for forced population transfers and for crimes against humanity. A focus on physical rebuilding in such context implies that any justice mechanism, including transitional justice or the articulation of shared memories can and will take a back seat to the economic opportunities and political gambits which define post-conflict. Critically, such a focus is likely to undermine international norms of accountability and justice and will serve to reward those accused of such crimes. While many Syrians and outside actors alike call for “just and inclusive reconstruction,” the realities are likely to be anything but. Reconstruction in places like Syria are especially complicated by the questions of how assistance can be given to a regime that was in large part responsible for the country’s devastation and has been implicated in war crimes. International actors today are struggling with whether and how to support reconstruction for Syrian communities whilst ensuring that this does not end up privileging political supporters of the regime. Standing aside from reconstruction efforts in Syria may avoid offering support to the Asad regime, but at the cost of perpetuating Syrian suffering and ceding post-war influence to other actors. Tere are no clear positions yet on the institutional mechanisms through which reconstruction funding may be provided, what new institutions and oversight mechanisms are needed and what existing institutions within the different countries need to be rebuilt or simply reshaped. What needs to be reconstructed? Discussion of reconstruction often begins from economic needs assessment and templates derived from international best practices, rather than through engagement with the affected individuals or with