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Egyptian Foreign Policy (Special Reference After the 25Th of January Revolution)

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Egyptian Foreign Policy (Special Reference After the 25Th of January Revolution) UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS POLÍTICAS Y SOCIOLOGÍA DEPARTAMENTO DE DERECHO INTERNACIONAL PÚBLICO Y RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES TESIS DOCTORAL Egyptian foreign policy (special reference after The 25th of January Revolution) MEMORIA PARA OPTAR AL GRADO DE DOCTORA PRESENTADA POR Rania Ahmed Hemaid DIRECTOR Najib Abu-Warda Madrid, 2018 © Rania Ahmed Hemaid, 2017 UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID Facultad de Ciencias Políticas Y Socioligía Departamento de Derecho Internacional Público y Relaciones Internacionales Doctoral Program Political Sciences PHD dissertation Egyptian Foreign Policy (Special Reference after The 25th of January Revolution) POLÍTICA EXTERIOR EGIPCIA (ESPECIAL REFERENCIA DESPUÉS DE LA REVOLUCIÓN DEL 25 DE ENERO) Elaborated by Rania Ahmed Hemaid Under the Supervision of Prof. Dr. Najib Abu- Warda Professor of International Relations in the Faculty of Information Sciences, Complutense University of Madrid Madrid, 2017 Ph.D. Dissertation Presented to the Complutense University of Madrid for obtaining the doctoral degree in Political Science by Ms. Rania Ahmed Hemaid, under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Najib Abu- Warda Professor of International Relations, Faculty of Information Sciences, Complutense University of Madrid. University: Complutense University of Madrid. Department: International Public Law and International Relations (International Studies). Program: Doctorate in Political Science. Director: Prof. Dr. Najib Abu- Warda. Academic Year: 2017 Madrid, 2017 DEDICATION Dedication To my dearest parents may god rest their souls in peace and to my only family my sister whom without her support and love I would not have conducted this piece of work ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Acknowledgments I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Prof. Dr. Najib Abu- Warda for the continuous support of my Ph.D. study, for his patience, motivation, and support. His guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis. I could not have imagined having a better advisor and mentor for my Ph.D. study. Besides my advisor, I would like to thank the rest of my thesis committee for their insightful comments and encouragement, My sincere thanks also goes to the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs that I really proud to be part of it. the useful information and documents of the ministry have helped me a lot to conclude this thesis. As well I would like to utter my appreciation to both the Former Ministers of Foreign Affairs His Excellency Mr. Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Mr. Mohamed Al – Orabi whom their immense knowledge have enriched the my Ph.D. Last but not least, I would like to thank my all my friends who shared with me the unforgettable years that I spent in Spain, they all have encouraged me from the very beginning to complete this piece of work and without their precious support it would not be possible to conduct this research. Thanks to all Rania INDEX Title Page No. DEDICATION ACKNOWLEDGMENTS LIST of ABBREVIATIONS ABSTRACT 31 RESUMEN 35 INTRODUCTION: 50 I- Relevance of the study……………………………………………………….. 56 II- Objectives of the study………………………………………………………. 57 III- Methodology for the research……………………………………………….. 58 IV- Hypothesis…………………………………………………………………... 61 V- Structure of the doctoral thesis……………………………………………… 63 CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 67 Introduction 68 1.1.- Stages of revolutions…………………………………………………………… 68 1.2. - An Analysis of the Post-Revolutionary Foreign Policy Behavior……………… 70 1.3.- An assessment for Egypt’s Post-Revolutionary Foreign Policy………………... 75 1.4.-The Foreign Policy Behavior of Revolutionary States…...................................... 77 1.5.- Analysis of Egypt’s 2011 Revolution…………………………………………………... 78 1.6.- Renouncing a "Revolutionary" Foreign Policy………………………………… 81 1.7.-Egypt : The Middle Pivotal Power……………………………………………………… 83 1.7.1.- Pivotal State……………………………………………………...................... 89 1.7.2.- Combining the Pivotal State and Middle Power concepts…………………… 92 1.8.- Determinates of the Egyptian foreign policy…………………….................... 97 CHAPTER 2: EGYPT’S FOREIGN POLICY UNDER NASSER 103 2.1- Nasser: The First Republic……………………………………………………… 104 2.2- Pan Arab Nationalism…………………………………………………………………... 106 2.3- The African Circle……………………………………………………………… 109 2.4- Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)……………………………………………...... 112 2.5.- Relations with the Soviet Union……………………………………………….. 114 2.6.- Relations with the United States……………………………………………….. 116 2.7.- The Suez Crisis or the Tripartite Aggression………………………………………...… 118 2.8.- The 1967 Defeat………………………………………………………………………... 123 CHAPTER 3: SADAT'S ERA: EGYPT FIRST 128 3.1.-The Corrective or Rectification Revolution………………………...................... 129 3.2.-Policy of Economic and Political Reform…………………………….................. 130 3.3.- Foreign Policy Reorientation from East to West…………………...................... 132 3.4.- October 1973 War and Camp David Agreements………………………………. 138 3.5.-The Impact of the Peace Agreement on the Egyptian–Arab Relations………… 143 CHAPTER 4: MUBARAK: SEARCHING for BALANCE 146 4.1.-Egypt return to the Arab world…………………………………………............. 147 4.2.-The Iraqi-Iranian Gulf war 1980-88……………………..………………....................... 150 4.3.- The ties with the Soviet Union………………………………..……………………….. 151 4.4.- The ties with the United States and The Second Gulf war 1991…………….… 152 4.5.- Invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the Counterterrorism Efforts………………….… 159 4.6.- Military cooperation between Cairo and Washington……………………….… 161 4.7.- The Arab- Israeli Conflict…………………………………………................... 164 4.8.- Relations with Africa………………………………………………………..… 168 4.9.- Relations with Europe and the Mediterranean…………………………………………. 170 4.10.- Stages of Development of the Egyptian Regional Role from 1952- 2011…… 175 4.10.1.- The Rise Stage……………………………………………………………………... 175 4.10.2.- The Recession or Decline Stage……………………………………………………. 176 4.10.3.- The Renovation or Renewal Stage………………………………………………….. 177 4.10.4.-The Regression or Retreat Stage……………………………………………………... 178 CHAPTER 5: THE ARAB SPRING 180 5.1.- Regional and Domestic Changes Affecting Egypt Before the Arab Spring…… 181 5.2.- Contemporary Challenges Facing the Egyptian National Security since 2011... 182 5.3.-The Transformation Process of the Middle East Region in the Wake of the Arab Spring.. 185 5.4.- The 2011 Revolution: Roots and Consequences…………………….................. 195 5.4.1.- Inheritance of power…………………………………….…………………… 196 5.4.2.- The socio-economic factors…………………………………………………. 198 5.4.2.1.-The development of Social and political movements in Egypt since 1952…. 200 5.5.- The Foreign policy dimension in the January 25th revolution………………….. 210 5.6.- International Reactions towards the January 2011 revolution………………….. 212 5.7.-The Foreign Relations of Egypt during the Transitional Period after January25thRevolution………………………………………..………………... 218 CHAPTER 6: EGYPT UNDER THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD REGIME 220 6.1.- Origins of the Muslim brotherhood……………………………………………. 221 6.2.- Provisions for Undergoing the Presidential Elections in 2012………………… 223 6.2.1.- The Establishment of the Freedom and Justice Party……………………..… 224 6.3.- Egyptian Foreign Policy under Muslim Brotherhood…………………………. 227 6.4.- Hamas Organization Relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood Regime……………. 234 6.5.- Hamas and the Egyptian national security………………………………........... 237 6.6.- Relations with Iran……………………………………………………………… 240 6.7.- Ties with Syria…………………………………………………………………. 242 6.8.- Relations with Europe…………………………………………………………. 245 6.9.- The Fall of Muslim brotherhood in Egypt and its strategic effects………......... 250 6.10.- Ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood and International Reactions…………….. 260 6.10.1.- Goals of the Saudi support to Egypt……………………………………...... 270 6.10.2.- The Western Point of View Towards Riyadh's Supporting Position to Egypt 273 6.10.3. - The Reaction of the Turkish regime………………………………………… 279 6.11.- A Precise Examination of the Muslim Brotherhood Policy During One Year. 289 6.12.- Final Analysis of the one year of Muslim Brotherhood rule…………………... 290 6.13.- Constrains of The One-Year Rule of the Muslim Brotherhood Regime in Egypt 292 6.14.- Role of the Diminutive Time frame and lack of experience…………………… 292 6.15.- The Effect of the fall over of The Muslin Brotherhood On the Political Islam Forces.. 293 6.16.- The future of the Muslim brotherhood and the political Islam………………… 296 CHAPTER 7: THE THIRD REPUBLIC UNDER PRESIDENT AL-SISI 299 7.1.- Re-Orientation of the Egyptian Foreign Policy…………………………………. 300 7.2.- Priorities of the Egyptian Regime Post June 30th Revolution……………............ 302 7.3.- Sisi's foreign policy………………………………………………………….... 307 7.3.1.- Relations with the Gulf………………………………………………………. 307 7.3.2.- The return of the Egyptian role in the African arena…………………………. 310 7.3.2.1.- Egypt and the African Union………………………………………………... 310 7.3.2.2.- Egypt's membership in the Council of the African Union Peace and Security 311 7.3.2.3.- Egyptian activity on the level of the African summits and bilateral level….. 312 7.3.2.4.-The relations with the Nile basin countries under Al-Sisi………………….. 313 7.3.3.- Tense relations with Turkey…………………………………………….......... 316 7.3.4.- The ties with the United States……………………………………………….. 318 7.3.5.- Ties with Russia………………………………………………………………. 320 7.3.6.- The Yemini Crisis………………………………………………………......... 322 7.3.7.- The Syrian Crisis………………………………………………………….… 325 7.3.8.- The Libyan crisis……………………………………………………………… 327 7.3.9.- The Palestinian- Israeli
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