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Egyptian Foreign Policy (Special Reference After the 25Th of January Revolution)

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UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS POLÍTICAS Y SOCIOLOGÍA DEPARTAMENTO DE DERECHO INTERNACIONAL PÚBLICO Y RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES TESIS DOCTORAL Egyptian foreign policy (special reference after The 25th of January Revolution) MEMORIA PARA OPTAR AL GRADO DE DOCTORA PRESENTADA POR Rania Ahmed Hemaid DIRECTOR Najib Abu-Warda Madrid, 2018 © Rania Ahmed Hemaid, 2017 UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID Facultad de Ciencias Políticas Y Socioligía Departamento de Derecho Internacional Público y Relaciones Internacionales Doctoral Program Political Sciences PHD dissertation Egyptian Foreign Policy (Special Reference after The 25th of January Revolution) POLÍTICA EXTERIOR EGIPCIA (ESPECIAL REFERENCIA DESPUÉS DE LA REVOLUCIÓN DEL 25 DE ENERO) Elaborated by Rania Ahmed Hemaid Under the Supervision of Prof. Dr. Najib Abu- Warda Professor of International Relations in the Faculty of Information Sciences, Complutense University of Madrid Madrid, 2017 Ph.D. Dissertation Presented to the Complutense University of Madrid for obtaining the doctoral degree in Political Science by Ms. Rania Ahmed Hemaid, under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Najib Abu- Warda Professor of International Relations, Faculty of Information Sciences, Complutense University of Madrid. University: Complutense University of Madrid. Department: International Public Law and International Relations (International Studies). Program: Doctorate in Political Science. Director: Prof. Dr. Najib Abu- Warda. Academic Year: 2017 Madrid, 2017 DEDICATION Dedication To my dearest parents may god rest their souls in peace and to my only family my sister whom without her support and love I would not have conducted this piece of work ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Acknowledgments I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Prof. Dr. Najib Abu- Warda for the continuous support of my Ph.D. study, for his patience, motivation, and support. His guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis. I could not have imagined having a better advisor and mentor for my Ph.D. study. Besides my advisor, I would like to thank the rest of my thesis committee for their insightful comments and encouragement, My sincere thanks also goes to the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs that I really proud to be part of it. the useful information and documents of the ministry have helped me a lot to conclude this thesis. As well I would like to utter my appreciation to both the Former Ministers of Foreign Affairs His Excellency Mr. Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Mr. Mohamed Al – Orabi whom their immense knowledge have enriched the my Ph.D. Last but not least, I would like to thank my all my friends who shared with me the unforgettable years that I spent in Spain, they all have encouraged me from the very beginning to complete this piece of work and without their precious support it would not be possible to conduct this research. Thanks to all Rania INDEX Title Page No. DEDICATION ACKNOWLEDGMENTS LIST of ABBREVIATIONS ABSTRACT 31 RESUMEN 35 INTRODUCTION: 50 I- Relevance of the study……………………………………………………….. 56 II- Objectives of the study………………………………………………………. 57 III- Methodology for the research……………………………………………….. 58 IV- Hypothesis…………………………………………………………………... 61 V- Structure of the doctoral thesis……………………………………………… 63 CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 67 Introduction 68 1.1.- Stages of revolutions…………………………………………………………… 68 1.2. - An Analysis of the Post-Revolutionary Foreign Policy Behavior……………… 70 1.3.- An assessment for Egypt’s Post-Revolutionary Foreign Policy………………... 75 1.4.-The Foreign Policy Behavior of Revolutionary States…...................................... 77 1.5.- Analysis of Egypt’s 2011 Revolution…………………………………………………... 78 1.6.- Renouncing a "Revolutionary" Foreign Policy………………………………… 81 1.7.-Egypt : The Middle Pivotal Power……………………………………………………… 83 1.7.1.- Pivotal State……………………………………………………...................... 89 1.7.2.- Combining the Pivotal State and Middle Power concepts…………………… 92 1.8.- Determinates of the Egyptian foreign policy…………………….................... 97 CHAPTER 2: EGYPT’S FOREIGN POLICY UNDER NASSER 103 2.1- Nasser: The First Republic……………………………………………………… 104 2.2- Pan Arab Nationalism…………………………………………………………………... 106 2.3- The African Circle……………………………………………………………… 109 2.4- Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)……………………………………………...... 112 2.5.- Relations with the Soviet Union……………………………………………….. 114 2.6.- Relations with the United States……………………………………………….. 116 2.7.- The Suez Crisis or the Tripartite Aggression………………………………………...… 118 2.8.- The 1967 Defeat………………………………………………………………………... 123 CHAPTER 3: SADAT'S ERA: EGYPT FIRST 128 3.1.-The Corrective or Rectification Revolution………………………...................... 129 3.2.-Policy of Economic and Political Reform…………………………….................. 130 3.3.- Foreign Policy Reorientation from East to West…………………...................... 132 3.4.- October 1973 War and Camp David Agreements………………………………. 138 3.5.-The Impact of the Peace Agreement on the Egyptian–Arab Relations………… 143 CHAPTER 4: MUBARAK: SEARCHING for BALANCE 146 4.1.-Egypt return to the Arab world…………………………………………............. 147 4.2.-The Iraqi-Iranian Gulf war 1980-88……………………..………………....................... 150 4.3.- The ties with the Soviet Union………………………………..……………………….. 151 4.4.- The ties with the United States and The Second Gulf war 1991…………….… 152 4.5.- Invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the Counterterrorism Efforts………………….… 159 4.6.- Military cooperation between Cairo and Washington……………………….… 161 4.7.- The Arab- Israeli Conflict…………………………………………................... 164 4.8.- Relations with Africa………………………………………………………..… 168 4.9.- Relations with Europe and the Mediterranean…………………………………………. 170 4.10.- Stages of Development of the Egyptian Regional Role from 1952- 2011…… 175 4.10.1.- The Rise Stage……………………………………………………………………... 175 4.10.2.- The Recession or Decline Stage……………………………………………………. 176 4.10.3.- The Renovation or Renewal Stage………………………………………………….. 177 4.10.4.-The Regression or Retreat Stage……………………………………………………... 178 CHAPTER 5: THE ARAB SPRING 180 5.1.- Regional and Domestic Changes Affecting Egypt Before the Arab Spring…… 181 5.2.- Contemporary Challenges Facing the Egyptian National Security since 2011... 182 5.3.-The Transformation Process of the Middle East Region in the Wake of the Arab Spring.. 185 5.4.- The 2011 Revolution: Roots and Consequences…………………….................. 195 5.4.1.- Inheritance of power…………………………………….…………………… 196 5.4.2.- The socio-economic factors…………………………………………………. 198 5.4.2.1.-The development of Social and political movements in Egypt since 1952…. 200 5.5.- The Foreign policy dimension in the January 25th revolution………………….. 210 5.6.- International Reactions towards the January 2011 revolution………………….. 212 5.7.-The Foreign Relations of Egypt during the Transitional Period after January25thRevolution………………………………………..………………... 218 CHAPTER 6: EGYPT UNDER THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD REGIME 220 6.1.- Origins of the Muslim brotherhood……………………………………………. 221 6.2.- Provisions for Undergoing the Presidential Elections in 2012………………… 223 6.2.1.- The Establishment of the Freedom and Justice Party……………………..… 224 6.3.- Egyptian Foreign Policy under Muslim Brotherhood…………………………. 227 6.4.- Hamas Organization Relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood Regime……………. 234 6.5.- Hamas and the Egyptian national security………………………………........... 237 6.6.- Relations with Iran……………………………………………………………… 240 6.7.- Ties with Syria…………………………………………………………………. 242 6.8.- Relations with Europe…………………………………………………………. 245 6.9.- The Fall of Muslim brotherhood in Egypt and its strategic effects………......... 250 6.10.- Ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood and International Reactions…………….. 260 6.10.1.- Goals of the Saudi support to Egypt……………………………………...... 270 6.10.2.- The Western Point of View Towards Riyadh's Supporting Position to Egypt 273 6.10.3. - The Reaction of the Turkish regime………………………………………… 279 6.11.- A Precise Examination of the Muslim Brotherhood Policy During One Year. 289 6.12.- Final Analysis of the one year of Muslim Brotherhood rule…………………... 290 6.13.- Constrains of The One-Year Rule of the Muslim Brotherhood Regime in Egypt 292 6.14.- Role of the Diminutive Time frame and lack of experience…………………… 292 6.15.- The Effect of the fall over of The Muslin Brotherhood On the Political Islam Forces.. 293 6.16.- The future of the Muslim brotherhood and the political Islam………………… 296 CHAPTER 7: THE THIRD REPUBLIC UNDER PRESIDENT AL-SISI 299 7.1.- Re-Orientation of the Egyptian Foreign Policy…………………………………. 300 7.2.- Priorities of the Egyptian Regime Post June 30th Revolution……………............ 302 7.3.- Sisi's foreign policy………………………………………………………….... 307 7.3.1.- Relations with the Gulf………………………………………………………. 307 7.3.2.- The return of the Egyptian role in the African arena…………………………. 310 7.3.2.1.- Egypt and the African Union………………………………………………... 310 7.3.2.2.- Egypt's membership in the Council of the African Union Peace and Security 311 7.3.2.3.- Egyptian activity on the level of the African summits and bilateral level….. 312 7.3.2.4.-The relations with the Nile basin countries under Al-Sisi………………….. 313 7.3.3.- Tense relations with Turkey…………………………………………….......... 316 7.3.4.- The ties with the United States……………………………………………….. 318 7.3.5.- Ties with Russia………………………………………………………………. 320 7.3.6.- The Yemini Crisis………………………………………………………......... 322 7.3.7.- The Syrian Crisis………………………………………………………….… 325 7.3.8.- The Libyan crisis……………………………………………………………… 327 7.3.9.- The Palestinian- Israeli
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    ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ Hopkins The Political Economy of اﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻰ the New Egyptian Republic ﻟﻠﺠﻤﻬﻮرﻳﺔ اﳉﺪﻳﺪة ﻓﻰ ﻣﺼﺮ The Political Economy of the New Egyptian of the New Republic Economy The Political Edited by ﲢﺮﻳﺮ Nicholas S. Hopkins ﻧﻴﻜﻮﻻس ﻫﻮﺑﻜﻨﺰ Contributors اﳌﺸﺎرﻛﻮن Deena Abdelmonem Zeinab Abul-Magd زﻳﻨﺐ أﺑﻮ اﻟﺪ دﻳﻨﺎ ﻋﺒﺪ اﳌﻨﻌﻢ Yasmine Ahmed Sandrine Gamblin ﺳﺎﻧﺪرﻳﻦ ﺟﺎﻣﺒﻼن ﻳﺎﺳﻤﲔ أﺣﻤﺪ Ellis Goldberg Clement M. Henry ﻛﻠﻴﻤﻨﺖ ﻫﻨﺮى إﻟﻴﺲ ﺟﻮﻟﺪﺑﻴﺮج SOCIAL SCIENCE IN CAIRO PAPERS Dina Makram-Ebeid Hans Christian Korsholm Nielsen ﻫﺎﻧﺰ ﻛﺮﻳﺴﺘﻴﺎن ﻛﻮرﺷﻠﻢ ﻧﻴﻠﺴﻦ دﻳﻨﺎ ﻣﻜﺮم ﻋﺒﻴﺪ David Sims دﻳﭭﻴﺪ ﺳﻴﻤﺰ Volume ﻣﺠﻠﺪ 33 ٣٣ Number ﻋﺪد 4 ٤ ﻟﻘﺪ اﺛﺒﺘﺖ ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة ﻓﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ أﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﻨﻬﻞ ﻻ ﻏﻨﻰ ﻋﻨﻪ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎرئ اﻟﻌﺎدى واﳌﺘﺨﺼﺺ ﻓﻰ ﺷﺌﻮن CAIRO PAPERS IN SOCIAL SCIENCE is a valuable resource for Middle East specialists اﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ. وﺗﻌﺮض ﻫﺬه اﻟﻜﺘﻴﺒﺎت اﻟﺮﺑﻊ ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺔ - اﻟﺘﻰ ﺗﺼﺪر ﻣﻨﺬ ﻋﺎم ١٩٧٧ - ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺒﺤﻮث اﻟﺘﻰ ﻗﺎم ﺑﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﺣﺜﻮن and non-specialists. Published quarterly since 1977, these monographs present the results of ﻣﺤﻠﻴﻮن وزاﺋﺮون ﻓﻰ ﻣﺠﺎﻻت ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﳌﻮﺿﻮﻋﺎت اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ واﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ واﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ واﻟﺘﺎرﻳﺨﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ. ,current research on a wide range of social, economic, and political issues in the Middle East وﺗﺮﺣﺐ ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﲢﺮﻳﺮ ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﻻت اﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﻬﺬه اﻟﺎﻻت ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺮ ﻓﻰ ﻣﺪى ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ. وﻳﺮاﻋﻰ ان ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﺒﺤﺚ .and include historical perspectives ﻓﻰ ﺣﺪود ١٥٠ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺗﺮك ﻣﺴﺎﻓﺘﲔ ﺑﲔ اﻟﺴﻄﻮر، وﺗﺴﻠﻢ ﻣﻨﻪ ﻧﺴﺨﺔ ﻣﻄﺒﻮﻋﺔ وأﺧﺮى ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﻄﻮاﻧﺔ ﻛﻤﺒﻴﻮﺗﺮ (ﻣﺎﻛﻨﺘﻮش Submissions of studies relevant to these areas are invited. Manuscripts submitted should be أو ﻣﻴﻜﺮوﺳﻮﻓﺖ وورد). أﻣﺎ ﺑﺨﺼﻮص ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ اﳌﺮاﺟﻊ، ﻓﻴﺠﺐ ان ﺗﺘﻮاﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﳌﺘﻔﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻰ ﻛﺘﺎب ”اﻻﺳﻠﻮب ﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ around 150 doublespaced typewritten pages in hard copy and on disk (Macintosh or Microsoft ﺷﻴﻜﺎﻏﻮ“ (The Chicago Manual of Style) ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻜﻮن اﻟﻬﻮاﻣﺶ ﻓﻰ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻛﻞ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ، أو اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﳌﺘﻔﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻰ Word).
  • How to Navigate Egypt's Enduring Human Rights Crisis

    How to Navigate Egypt's Enduring Human Rights Crisis

    How to Navigate Egypt’s Enduring Human Rights Crisis BLUEPRINT FOR U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY January 2016 Human Rights First American ideals. Universal values. On human rights, the United States must be a beacon. Activists fighting for freedom around the globe continue to look to us for inspiration and count on us for support. Upholding human rights is not only a moral obligation; it’s a vital national interest. America is strongest when our policies and actions match our values. Human Rights First is an independent advocacy and action organization that challenges America to live up to its ideals. We believe American leadership is essential in the struggle for human rights so we press the U.S. government and private companies to respect human rights and the rule of law. When they don’t, we step in to demand reform, accountability and justice. Around the world, we work where we can best harness American influence to secure core freedoms. We know that it is not enough to expose and protest injustice, so we create the political environment and policy solutions necessary to ensure consistent respect for human rights. Whether we are protecting refugees, combating torture, or defending persecuted minorities, we focus not on making a point, but on making a difference. For over 30 years, we’ve built bipartisan coalitions and teamed up with frontline activists and lawyers to tackle issues that demand American leadership. Human Rights First is a nonprofit, nonpartisan international human rights organization based in New York and Washington D.C. To maintain our independence, we accept no government funding.
  • Fault Lines: Sinai Peninsula 20 OCT 2017 the Sinai Peninsula Is a Complicated Operational Environment (OE)

    Fault Lines: Sinai Peninsula 20 OCT 2017 the Sinai Peninsula Is a Complicated Operational Environment (OE)

    Fault Lines: Sinai Peninsula 20 OCT 2017 The Sinai Peninsula is a complicated operational environment (OE). At present, there are a number of interconnected conditions creating instability and fostering a favorable environment for the growth of Islamic extremist groups. Egypt is battling this situation with large-scale security operations, yet militant activity is not diminishing. The Egyptian government, in coordination with the Israeli government, is placing renewed interest on countering insurgent actors in the region and establishing a lasting security. Despite its best effort, Egypt has been largely unsuccessful. A variety of factors have contributed to the continued rise of the insurgents. We submit there are four key fault lines contributing to instability. These fault lines are neither mutually exclusive nor are they isolated to the Sinai. In fact, they are inexorably intertwined, in ways between Egypt, Israel, and the Sinai Peninsula. Issues related to faults create stability complications, legitimacy concerns, and disidentification problems that can be easily exploited by interested actors. It is essential to understand the conditions creating the faults, the escalation that results from them operating at the same time, and the potential effects for continued insecurity and ultimately instability in the region. FAULT LINES Egypt-Israel Relations - Enduring geopolitical tension between Egypt and Israel, and complex coordination needs between are “exploitable dissimilar and traditionally untrusting cultures, has potential for explosive effects on regional stability. sources of Political Instability - Continued political instability, generated from leadership turmoil, mounting security concerns, and insufficient efforts for economic development may lead to an exponentially dire security situation and direct and violent instability in the challenges to the government.
  • CBC Nir Mar 11.Indd

    CBC Nir Mar 11.Indd

    EGYPT AND THE DAYS OF ANGER Introduction A wind of revolutionary change began communication technologies of social Focus to stir in the small North African media to spread information and rally This News in Review country of Tunisia in December 2010. new supporters to their cause. Mubarak’s story focuses on After enduring years of corruption and government had dealt with protests the revolution that repression at the hands of President before, never hesitating to deploy its occurred in Egypt Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, huge crowds widely feared internal security apparatus in January and took to the streets demanding he step to crush them. But this time, the sheer February 2011. The revolution led to the down. On January 14, 2011, much to size and scope of the demonstrations, and fall of an entrenched their surprise and delight, the protestors their resolutely peaceful tactics, seemed dictatorship and were successful, driving Ben Ali and his to disable the regime. helped to perpetuate family from the country and ushering in For 18 days Egypt, and the world, change across the a new era of democracy. watched as the drama unfolded in Tahrir Middle East and Inspired by the Tunisian example, Square. After a failed attempt by pro- beyond. masses of Egyptians began to congregate Mubarak gangs to drive the protestors in Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo away by force, and after being advised on January 26, 2011. Protesters voiced by the army that it would not fire on its similar demands for democracy and the own people, Mubarak’s position was no resignation of the country’s president, longer tenable.