The Russia Foreign Policy Toward the Syrian Conflict

THE RUSSIA FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD THE SYRIAN CONFLICT: THE IMPLEMENTATION OF RUSSIA FOREIGN POLICY TO SUPPORT PRESIDENT BASHAR AL-ASSAD IN THE FIGHT AGAINST THE FREE SYRIAN ARMY (FSA) AND ISLAMIC STATES OF IRAQ AND SYRIA (ISIS) IN 2011 – 2017

By: Aulia Tri Putranto ID no. 016201400026

A thesis presented to the Faculty of Humanities President University in partial fulfillment of the requirements of Bachelor Degree in International Relations Major in Strategic and Defense Studies

2018

THESIS ADVISER RECOMMENDATION LETTER

This thesis titled “The Russia Foreign Policy Toward The Syrian Conflict: The Implementation of Russia Foreign Policy to Support President Bashar Al-Assad in the Fight Against The Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Islamic States of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in 2011 – 2017” prepared and submitted by Aulia Tri Putranto in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Arts in International Relations in the Faculty of Humanities has been reviewed and found to have satisfied the requirements for a thesis fit to be examined. I therefore recommend this thesis for Oral Defense.

Cikarang, May 2018

Prof. Anak Agung Banyu Perwita, Ph.D Thesis Adviser

DECLARATION OF ORIGINALITY

I declare that this thesis, entitled “The Russia Foreign Policy Toward The Syrian Conflict: The Implementation of Russia Foreign Policy to Support President Bashar Al-Assad in the Fight Against The Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Islamic States of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in 2011 – 2017” is, to the best of my knowledge and belief, an original piece of work that has not been submitted, either or in part, to another university to obtain a degree.

Cikarang, May 2018

Aulia Tri Putranto

PANEL OF EXAMINERS APPROVAL SHEET

The Panel of Examiners declare that the thesis “The Russia Foreign Policy Toward The Syrian Conflict: The Implementation of Russia Foreign Policy to Support President Bashar Al-Assad in the fight against the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Islamic States of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in 2011 – 2017” that was submitted by Aulia Tri Putranto majoring in International Relations from the Faculty of Humanities was assessed and approved to have passed the Oral Examinations on 11 May 2018.

Prof. Anak Agung Banyu Perwita, Ph. D

Chair – Panel of Examiners

I Gusti Bagus Dharma Agastia, MSc.

Examiners

I Gusti Bagus Dharma Agastia, MSc

Examiners

I Gusti Bagus Dharma Agastia, MSc. Examiners

Bustanul Arifin, BA.IR., MA.

Examiners

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Dr. Endi Haryono Examiners ABSTRACT

Aulia Tri Putranto, International Relations 2014, President University.

Thesis Title: The Russia Foreign Policy Toward The Syrian Conflict: The Implementation of Russia Foreign Policy to Support President Bashar Al-Assad in the fight against the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Islamic States of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in 2011 – 2017

Arab Spring revolution is an important phenomenon in the Middle East and North Africa region in order to bring down the authoritarian leader. The Arab Spring widespread in Syria affected the major demonstrations since March 2011 aims to bring down President Bashar Al-Assad who ruling Syria since 2000. The Syrian government responded with brutal crackdown and violence toward demonstrators that becomes the Syrian conflict. The demonstrations turn out into the armed insurgency when Syrian Army defectors established the Free Syrian Army (FSA) alongside the demonstrators aims to bring down President Bashar Al-Assad. On June 2014, the Syria conflict was increased by the emergence of Islamic States of Iraq and Syria as the terrorist aims to take control of Syria territory, take control of Syrian oil refineries, also bring down the President Bashar Al-Assad. In 2015, the government opposition took control of Syrian territory affected the major setbacks of Syria Armed Forces. The Syrian conflict involved foreign intervention such as the United States and allies and Russia to resolve the conflict. Syria is Russian ally in the Middle East region, Russian foreign policy toward Syria support President Bashar Al-Assad through political, economic, and military attempts. Russia foreign policy cooperation with Syrian government aims to achieve Russian national interest in Syria. Russia implements its foreign policy provided an assistance of political, economic, and military aspects to President Bashar Al-Assad in the fight against the FSA and ISIS to resolve the conflict also liberate the Syrian territory from the government opposition. Keywords: Arab Spring, Syrian Conflict, Free Syrian Army, Islamic States of Iraq and Syria as The Terrorist, Russia Foreign Policy, Russian National Interest.

ABSTRAK

Aulia Tri Putranto, Hubungan Internasional 2014, Universitas President

Revolusi Musim Semi Arab adalah sebuah fenomena penting di kawasan Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara dalam menggulingkan pemimpin otoriter. Revolusi Musim Semi Arab yang telah menyebar di Suriah mempengaruhi demonstrasi besar sejak Maret 2011 yang bertujuan untuk menggulingkan Presiden Bashar Al-Assad yang memerintah Suriah sejak tahun 2000. Pemerintah Suriah menanggapi dengan penumpasan brutal serta kekerasan terhadap demonstran yang menjadi konflik Suriah. Demonstrasi menjadi pemberontakan bersenjata ketika pembelot Tentara Suriah mendirikan Tentara Pembebasan Suriah (FSA) bersama para demonstran bertujuan untuk menggulingkan President Bashar Al-Assad. Pada Juni 2014, konflik Suriah meningkat dengan munculnya Negara Islam Irak dan Suriah (ISIS) sebagai teroris yang bertujuan untuk menguasai wilayah Suriah, mengambil alih kilang minyak Suriah, dan menggulingkan Presiden Bashar Al-Assad. Pada tahun 2015, oposisi mengambil alih wilayah Suriah mempengaruhi kemunduran besar Angkatan Bersenjata Suriah. Konflik Suriah melibatkan intervensi asing seperti Amerika Serikat dan Sekutu dan Rusia untuk menyelesaikan konflik. Suriah adalah sekutu Rusia di Timur Tengah, kebijakan luar negeri Rusia terhadap Suriah mendukung Presiden Bashar Al-Assad dengan upaya politik, ekonomi, dan militer. Kebijakan luar negeri Rusia bekerjasama dengan pemerintah Suriah bertujuan untuk mencapai kepentingan nasional Rusia di Suriah. Rusia menerapkan kebijakan luar negeri dengan memberikan bantuan aspek politik, ekonomi, dan militer kepada Presiden Bashar Al-Assad dalam memerangi FSA dan ISIS untuk menyelesaikan konflik Suriah serta membebaskan Suriah dari oposisi pemerintah. Kata Kunci: Musim Semi Arab, Konflik Suriah, Tentara Pembebasan Suriah, Negara Islam Irak dan Suriah sebagai Teroris, Kebijakan Luar Negeri Rusia, Kepentingan Nasional Russia.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Firstly and Foremost, I would like to say Alhamdulillah and thank Allah S.W.T and support from my Parents. Thank you for every support, blessing, and mercies that make me stand-up still until this day to do with this thesis. Although, I was very doubtful of myself at the first time made a thesis, finally, I can finish the thesis as my obligatory and my responsibility as a student to achieve Bachelor degree of International Relations. Therefore, through this thesis, I can make my Parents proud and I can move to the bigger step to reach my dream and make my dream come true.

I would like to gratitude to the best lecturer in President University and the role model of mine Prof. Anak Agung Banyu Perwita, Ph.D. I am very grateful had been taught by you during the study in Defence class Batch 2014 and thesis-making. It a tremendous honor to be one of your student whose thesis is under your supervision. I would like to gratitude to I Gusti Bagus Dharma Agastia, MSc for guided me finish this thesis by your suggestions and critics. Thank you for both of you for guidance, criticism, suggestions, very fast response, consultation time, and your knowledge, it means a lot to me. Both of you are awesome!

Hello Ayu Laksmi Saraswati, I am grateful to have you and become my supporter during thesis making progress. I hope you can finish your thesis to reach S.IP degree in Brawijaya University and we can graduate in this year to achieve our dreams and realize the dream comes true. Thank you so much for steady supports, lots of prayers, and your love. Finally, I can finish this thesis.

I would also like to my great friends in my surrounding during thesis making. Thank you so much for David, Ircha, Surya, and Abu Rijal for your supports, discussion, stories, and attention. Thank you to PUMA IR for 2 years great experience, I very grateful to be in the part of the best organization and best major in the President University. Thank you to my division in PUMA IR Domestic Affairs and Creative Works for the time, great experience, fraternity, and thank you for the year of the champion in 2015 and 2016, I much learned from the beautiful experiences that once of my lifetime.

Thank you for Defence class Batch 2014, we had been gathered since 5th semester and I hope we can reach our dreams and we can reunite again in the next time. For me, Defence class Batch 2014 is the best class in the International Relations Batch 2014. Thank you for Dormitory S108 and S112 squads for funny moments, laugh, interesting stories, and togetherness since we lived in Dormitory. For non-academical inspirations, I would like to thank you to Small’s cafe to joyful and relaxing moments with friends. Lastly, for the readers, please enjoy reading my research and hope you are getting motivated and inspired!

Sincerely,

Aulia Tri Putranto

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TABLE OF CONTENTS THESIS ADVISER ...... i RECOMMENDATION LETTER...... i DECLARATION OF ORIGINALITY ...... ii PANEL OF EXAMINERS APPROVAL SHEET ...... iii ABSTRACT ...... iv ABSTRAK ...... v ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ...... vi LIST OF FIGURES ...... x LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ...... xi

CHAPTER I ...... 1 INTRODUCTION ...... 1 I.I Background of Study ...... 1 I.2. Identification of Problem ...... 4 I.3. Statement of Problem ...... 9 I.4. Research Objectives ...... 9 I.5. Significance of the Study ...... 9 I.6. Theoretical Framework ...... 9 I.6.1. Realism ...... 10 I.6.2. Offensive Neorealism ...... 10 I.6.3. National Interest ...... 11 I.6.4. Foreign Policy ...... 12 I.6.5. Rational Actor Model ...... 13 I.6.6. D.I.M.E ...... 15 I.7. Scope and Limitation of Study ...... 17 I.8. Research Methodology ...... 17 I.9. Structure of the Thesis ...... 18 I.9.1. CHAPTER I – Introduction ...... 18 I.9.2. CHAPTER II – The Strategic Environment of Middle East Region ...... 18 I.9.3. CHAPTER III – The Overview of Russia Foreign Policy Toward Syria ...... 18 I.9.4. CHAPTER IV – The Implementation of Russia Foreign Policy In Order to Support President Bashar Al-Assad in 2011 – 2017...... 19 I.9.5. CHAPTER V – Conclusion ...... 19 CHAPTER II ...... 20 THE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT OF MIDDLE EAST REGION ...... 20

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II.1. THE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT OF MIDDLE EAST ...... 20 II.1.1. The Wave of Arab Spring ...... 20 II.1.2. THE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT OF SYRIA ...... 25 II.1.2.1. The Beginning of Syria Civil War ...... 25 II.1.2.2. Geopolitical Changes After Arab Spring in Syria ...... 31 II.2. The Threat Assessment of Syria Government ...... 35 II.2.1. The Emergence of The Free Syrian Army (FSA) ...... 35 II.2.2. The Emergence of ISIS ...... 43

CHAPTER III ...... 55

THE OVERVIEW RUSSIA FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD SYRIA ...... 55 III.1. THE NATIONAL INTEREST OF RUSSIA IN SYRIA ...... 55 III.1.1. Political Aspects of National Interest ...... 55 III.1.2. Economic Aspects of National Interest ...... 58 III.1.3. Military Aspects of National Interest ...... 61 III.2. THE CONCEPT OF RUSSIA FOREIGN POLICY BY ...... 64 III.2.1. Political Instruments of Russia Foreign Policy...... 64 III.2.2. Economic Instruments of Russia Foreign Policy ...... 70 III.2.3. Military Instruments of Russia Foreign Policy ...... 76

CHAPTER IV ...... 82

THE IMPLEMENTATION OF RUSSIA FOREIGN POLICY IN ORDER TO SUPPORT PRESIDENT BASHAR AL-ASSAD (2011 – 2017) ...... 82 IV.1. The Cooperations Between Russia – Syria ...... 82 IV.1.1. Political Support of Russia to Syria Government ...... 83 IV.1.2. The Bilateral Economic Cooperation of Russia to Syria ...... 90 IV.1.3. Military Support of Russia to Syrian Government ...... 95 IV.2. The Development of Russia Attempts In Order to Win The ...... 102 War Against The FSA and ISIS ...... 102 IV.2.1. The Support of Russia to Syrian Government in the Fight Against the Free Syrian Army (FSA) ...... 102 IV.2.2. The Support of Russia to Syrian Government in the Fight Against Islamic States of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) ...... 104 CHAPTER V ...... 116 CONCLUSION ...... 116 BIBLIOGRAPHY ...... 120

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 Rusia First Airstrikes in 2015...... 2

Figure 1.2 Cicyle of Rational Actor Model...... 13

Figure 1.3 Rational Actor Model...... 14

Figure 2.1 Map of The Arab Spring...... 23

Figure 2.2 The FSA Controlled Territory in 2012 – 2013...... 41

Figure 2.3 The FSA Decline, Rise of ISIS...... 42

Figure 2.4 Foreign Fighters by Nationality...... 50

Figure 2.5 Foreign Fighters by Region...... 51

Figure 2.6 ISIS Territory in 2014...... 52

Figure 2.7 The Similarities and Differences of the FSA & ISIS...... 54

Figure 3.1 Oil and Gas Pipelines...... 59

Figure 3.2 Tartus Naval Base Map...... 62

Figure 3.3 Russia Arms Exports...... 72

Figure 3.4 Russia Arms Exports...... 73

Figure 3.5 Oil Refinery Controlled by ISIS...... 74

Figure 4.1 List of Russian Arms Supply to Syria...... 94

Figure 4.2 Russia Total Military Personnel...... 97

Figure 4.3 Russia Air Power...... 97

Figure 4.4 Russia Naval Power...... 98

Figure 4.5 Russia Army Power...... 98

Figure 4.6 Syria Territory on December 2017...... 113

Figure 4.7 Number of Foreign Fighters Returned...... 114

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

FSA Free Syrian Army

ISIS Islamic States of Iraq and Syria

NDF National Defence Forces

SOHR Syrian Observatory for Human Rights

UN United Nations

UNGA United Nations General Assembly

UNSC United Nations Security Council

US United States of America

CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

I.I Background of Study

Arab Spring is a wave of revolution in the Arab region since 18 December 2010 when self-immolation by Mohamed Bouazizi success triggered demonstrations in Tunisia due to a lot of corruption by the Tunisian government. The demonstration by civilian triggered the other states to bring down the government, especially in Jordan and Egypt. In July 2011, the demonstrations of Arab Spring success overthrew two state leaders which revolution in Tunisia success overthrew the regime after Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali resigned in January 2011 after became an authoritarian leader for 24 years as well in Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak resigned in February 2011 after 18 days demonstrations by civilian overthrew the authoritarian leadership for 30 years.1 The geopolitical factor becomes attention in the Arab region and driving to demonstrations in the other Arab states. The demonstrations taken by civil rebellion to enforcing democracy campaigns involve attacks, parades and social media utilization in Facebook and Youtube to organized, communicated also used propaganda “Ash-sha`b yurid isqat an-nizam” means The people want to bring down the regime, in order to raise awareness of the government.2 However, during the demonstrations, a lot of violence did by state officials due to pro with the government.

1 The Editors of Encyclopædia Britannica. (2015, January 14). Arab Spring. Retrieved from https://www.britannica.com/event/Arab-Spring

2 Khalidi, R. (2011, February 24). Reflections on the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt. Retrieved from http://foreignpolicy.com/2011/02/24/reflections-on-the-revolutions-in-tunisia-and-egypt/

Arab Spring triggered demonstrations in Syria to bring down President Bashar Al Assad government. The first demonstrations did in Southern Syria, Daraa city in March 2011 when students did critics to the government through graffiti in their school walls that read “Ash-sha`b yurid isqat an-nizam” means the people want to bring down the regime, then the government did persecution to students who did that critic.3 Since that tragedy, the government behavior triggered the demonstration in Syria due to intolerance of its civilian. Demonstrations by civilian aims to bring down Assad government and civilian aims a democracy in Syria with the presidential election. Bashar Al Assad is a dictator who cannot hear peoples aspiration. However, President Bashar Al Assad defending his authority and denied resignation since 11 years leading Syria replacing his predecessor as well his father Hafez Al Assad who had led for 32 years.4

The other factor of demonstrations in Syria because of the dissatisfaction of civilian towards the Syrian government that state assets owned by Assad family and the income of the state flow into Assad family.5 There are a lot of unemployment, poverty, nepotism that triggered demonstrations led to Syria revolution to bring down Assad government. Thus, Syria revolutions divided into two groups which pro- government and opposition involving Syria civilian and rebellion groups.6

However, Assad government responded with a brutal crackdown against demonstrators. Demonstrations by civilian carry out the issue of democracy to bring down Assad government. Demonstrators as well carry out human rights issue due to a lot of violence did by Syria government towards civilian.7 Demonstrations by the

3 The graffiti kids: How an act of teenage rebellion sparked the Syrian war. (2017, December 14). Retrieved from https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/the-graffiti-kids-who-sparked-the-syrian-war/article33123646/

4 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing down rebellion. (2015, October 21). Retrieved 2017, from http://www.bbc.com/news/10338256 5 Syria: The story of the conflict. (2016, March). Retrieved 2018, from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26116868

6 Ali, N. (2011, July 20). Syrian regime steps up propaganda war amid bloody crackdown on protests. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/20/syria-propaganda-protests-assad

7 Internal and External Dynamics of Syrian Crisis. (2013, May 24). Retrieved from https://orientalreview.org/2013/05/25/internal-and-external-dynamics-of-syrian-crisis/

2 civilian in Syria were unsuccessful, then Syria revolution becomes the continuous conflict until nowadays. In recent years, the complexity of Syria occurs by the involvement of external factors. The major external factors are the intervention of Russia under President Vladimir Putin who aims to assist Assad government to keep on his position.8 Internal and external factors make the complexity in Syria in recent years that led to Syria conflict in several cities such as Aleppo and Damascus.

The brutal crackdown by Assad state official to demonstrators become the attention of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) due to the conflict has taken many civilian lives. UNSC imposed arms and economic sanctions on Syria and UNSC as well demanded Assad to resign as President. However, the attempt was opposed by Russia by its veto.9 Russia is one of founding the father of UN that gets a privilege to use veto rights in every conflict resolution. Russia foreign policy on Syria under President Vladimir Putin aims to resolve the conflict with protecting Assad to keep on his position. Geopolitical and geostrategy approaches of Russia used to defending its power in the middle east especially Syria.10

In October 2011, the United States condemned Assad government with political and economic sanctions to Syria. United States proposed a UNSC draft resolution S/ 2011/612 to terminated Assad government violence towards Syrian civilians.11 Meanwhile, Russia veto denied the sanctions that burdening Syria under Assad government. Russia used veto for three times that was in October 2011, October 2012

8 Osterman, E. B. (2012, February). Russia U.N. veto on Syria aimed at crushing West's crusade. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-russia/russia-u-n-veto-on-syria-aimed-at- crushing-wests-crusade-idUSTRE8170BK20120208

9 News, S. (2017, March). Russia, China veto UN resolution on Syria sanctions. Retrieved from https://www.sbs.com.au/news/russia-china-veto-un-resolution-on-syria-sanctions

10 Russia in Syria and Putin's geopolitical strategy. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13294-russia-in-syria-and-putins- geopolitical-strategy.html

11 York, R. I. (n.d.). Russia and China veto UN resolution to impose sanctions on Syria. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/01/russia-and-china-veto-un-resolution-to- impose-sanctions-on-syria

3 and July 2012, that UNSC draft resolution cannot be implemented in Syria due to Russia has a veto as well China used a veto to protect President Bashar Al-Assad.12

I.2. Identification of Problem

Arab spring triggered demonstrations Syria civilian that aims to bring down Assad government. Syria conflict caused by Arab spring is ongoing conflict and complex conflict due to the failure of demonstrators bring down the government and Assad still defending his position by brutal crackdowns to civilian.13 As well, Syria civil war involving internal and external actors, which external actors are the intervention of Russia under Vladimir Putin aims to protect Assad position becomes Assad supporters, also the United States and alliances involve intervention to support civilian and rebel groups and become the opposition of Assad supporters.14

Russia did the intervention on Syria under Vladimir Putin is to actively strengthening its position in international politics as a significant actor through foreign policy. Russia foreign policy on Syria is evidence that Russia contributes international politics. By the foreign policy, Putin hopes that Russia can raise the status as Great Power and one of the strongest states in international relations as the Soviet Union in the past.15 Russia is Assad supporters that protect Damascus and resolve the Syria civil war with Russia military and political to protect from the threat of western intervention and west influences. Moreover, the foreign policy aims to protect Russia interest in Syria. The realization and decision Russia foreign policy under Vladimir Putin is based on great power state such as the Soviet Union in the past. Expectation

12 McKirdy, E. (2017, April). 8 times Russia blocked a UN resolution on Syria. Retrieved from http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/13/middleeast/russia-unsc-syria-resolutions/index.html

13 Mid-East unrest: Syrian protests in Damascus and Aleppo. (2011, March 15). Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-12749674

14 History.com Staff. (n.d.). Arab Spring. Retrieved from http://www.history.com/topics/arab-spring

15 Adelman, J. (n.d.). Thinking the Unthinkable: Russia Has Re-Emerged As a Great Power. Retrieved from https://www.huffingtonpost.com/jonathan-adelman/thinking-the-unthinkable- _2_b_9720304.html

4 to restoring the glory of Soviet Union in the present day by Vladimir Putin become Russia objective which is to create a multipolar international system.

Putin appointed as the President of Russia since 2012 made the good situation for Russia in the economy, politics, military and relations with the others states, which Russia has strong economic power as well always increase military power in each year. Russia under President Vladimir Putin capable to compete internationally, realize that Russia to bargaining position in the international community should have strong military power. Vladimir Putin serves as President since May 2012 is prioritizing the participation in international activities such as to resolve the other states conflicts by intervention. Anti-west by Putin reject the existence of the unipolar system because the unipolar international system makes the world remain one superpower that is the United States16, also Putin vision is to establish fair world order.

Syrian conflict emerged the rebel groups that supported by the United States and alliances such as FSA (also known as Free Syrian Army). The United States did the intervention in Syria aims to bring down Assad government along with rebel groups. The United States becomes Russia obstacle to achieve national interest in Syria due to facing the rebels that supported by the United States.17 Free Syrian Army consist defectors Syrian Armed Forces personnel who rebel and betrayed President Bashar Al-Assad since Arab Spring in Syria. Free Syrian Army supported by United States established in July 2011 led by Colonel Riad Al-Assad aims to bring down President Assad by armed operations. According to the United States media, Free Syrian army estimated consist of 10.000 – 25.000 personnel, also cooperated with demonstrans to bring down Assad government18. Free Syrian Army has adopted guerilla-style tactics which operates in Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Latakia, Daara, and Damascus.

16 Shift to multipolar world: Lavrov says Russia working to adjust foreign policy to new reality. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.rt.com/news/339082-russia-new-foreign-policy-multipolar/

17 Guide to the Syrian rebels. (2013, December). Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world- middle-east-24403003

18 Wagner, D. (2012, December). The Dark Side of the Free Syrian Army. Retrieved from https://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-wagner/dark-side-free-syrian_b_2380399.html

Syrian conflict as well emerged the terrorist group which taking advantages of chaos in Syria. Islamic States of Iraq and Syria (also known as ISIS) is the jihadist organization with fundamental of Islam which declared in June 2014. ISIS aims to establish “Khilafah”, a state/world which controlled by single religion leader and politics according to Islamic law or Sharia. Russia foreign policy on Syria has a concern to combating terrorism because terrorism becomes concern and threat for the international community. A lot of people in Syria join ISIS to bring down Assad government because the majority of the population in Syria is Sunni Islam that has no the same ideology with the Assad dictatorship. Sunni Islam and Shia Islam have the different ideology, meanwhile Bashar Al-Assad is Shia Islam adherent. According to CNN, ISIS has over 15.000 militias under Abu Bakar Al-Baghdadi, that ISIS existence becomes a major threat to Assad government and the world.19 ISIS capital city is in Raqqa Syria. ISIS could give the worst impact for Russia domestically, Vladimir Putin concern over ISIS is if its influence can spread into Russia, due Islam is the second largest religion with 9 million peoples in Russia after Christian.20

In addition, Putin concern over ISIS is if Russia becomes the terrorist target to attacked . Russia foreign policy placing the issue of eradicating international terrorism as an important task of the Russian government and a fundamental priority in the international security sector. Putin has quotes regarding combat terrorism in Syria, he stated that :

19 Dewan, A. (n.d.). Mosul now freed from ISIS: What's next for the city left in ruins? Retrieved from http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/10/middleeast/mosul-what-next/index.html

20 Taylor, G. (n.d.). Russia is No. 1 source country for ISIS foreign fighters: Report. Retrieved from https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/oct/24/russia-no-1-source-country-isis-foreign- fighters-r/

“To forgive terrorist is up to God, but to send them to Him is up to me”.21

In that quote and foreign policy, Russia condemns all forms of terrorism and opposes terrorist organizations to achieve political objectives, ideologies and other aims such as eradicate ISIS in Syria.

Since Arab Spring in Syria 2011, Russia supported Syria government with the political attempt. However, since 30 September 2015, Russia involve through direct military intervention, it is the first time that Russia entered an armed conflict outside borders of former the Soviet Union in order to raise Russia status as “Great Power”. Russia direct military intervention is to fulfill an official request by Syria government to against rebels and jihadist groups. Putin quoted before did direct military intervention that :

“We will carry out air strikes and support Syrian army offensives for as long as the Syrian army carries them out”.22

Russia responds to Syria is known to have good relations with Bashar Al-Assad.

In September 2015 as well, Russia Federation Council, the upper house of parliament authorized the Russia President to use armed forces and deploy the Russian air forces in Syria. Russia carries out its first airstrikes in Syria in 30 September 2015 targeting the ISIS and rebels in Homs and Hama with carry out of 50 aircrafts and helicopters, which the strike aircrafts are Sukhoi Su-34 and Sukhoi Su-24, multifunctions aircraft Sukhoi Su-30SM also helicopters Mi-8 and Mi-24.23

21 Classic Putin: 'To Forgive The Terrorists Is Up To God, But To Send Them To Him Is Up To Me'. (2015, November). Retrieved from http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/classic-putin-forgive- terrorists-god-send-them-him-me/ri11258

22 Oliphant, R. (2015, September 04). Vladimir Putin confirms Russian military involvement in Syria's civil war. Retrieved from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11845635/Vladimir-Putin-confirms- Russian-military-involvement-in-Syrias-civil-war.html 23 Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30, 2015 - October 1, 2015. (2015). Retrieved from http://www.understandingwar.org/map/russian-airstrikes-syria-september-30-2015-october-1-2015

In addition, in September 2015, Russia has sent 500 military personnel and assisted Syria armed forces with Tanks.Russia airstrikes deployed from Khmeimim Base Syria targeted Homs and Hama after received an official request by the Syrian government for military aid against ISIS and rebels. Russia support President Bashar Al-Assad retake territory from rebels that labelled by the United States also retake Syria territory from ISIS. 24

Figure 1.1 Russian First Airstrikes (2015) Source: http://www.understandingwar.org/map/russian-airstrikes-syria-september-30-october-3- 2015

24 Elgood, G., & Fletcher;, P. (2015, October 08). Syria extends offensive to retake territory in west. Retrieved from https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-syria/syria-extends-offensive-to- retake-territory-in-west-idUKKCN0S10BA20151008

I.3. Statement of Problem

Such situation in the previous section has therefore raised the Research Question which this thesis would be like to address:

Question: “How did the implementation of Russia foreign policy in the Syrian conflict in order to support President Bashar Al-Assad against the FSA and ISIS (2011-2017)?”

I.4. Research Objectives

The objectives of this thesis is:

To Analyze the foreign policy implementation of Russia in supporting President Bashar Al-Assad against ISIS and Free Syrian Army in 2015-2017.

I.5. Significance of the Study

The topic that is addressed and analyzed in this thesis meant to contribute for the following purpose:

To Understand the foreign policy implementation of Russia under President Vladimir Putin in supporting President Bashar Al-Assad against ISIS and Free Syrian Army.

I.6. Theoretical Framework

There will be specific theories used for analysis this thesis. The first theory is realism and offensive neorealism school of thought to understand the case of Syrian conflict for Russia, and the conceptual framework national interest and foreign policy to understand the policy making of Russia before implemented in the Syrian conflict, as well DIME to explain and understanding the Russia attempt to support President Bashar Al-Assad.

I.6.1. Realism According to H.J Morgenthau, Realism is a paradigm in the study international relations which emphasized the political world, the state is the main actor and anarchy world which there is no higher authority than states. Realism used as an approach to the study of international relations during World War I and World War II and Cold War. Realism views that the intention of power to dominate is a fundamental aspect of human nature.25 Moreover, Realism according to H.J Morgenthau emphasized that politics is about power struggles as a consequence of human ambition for power. Realism assumes the problem of the state tend to survival, that the states scoop up the natural resources as much as possible.

I.6.2. Offensive Neorealism Offensive Neorealism is part of realism paradigm which emphasized on conflict to ensure the security of the states, the states should prepare to face the conflict through economic and military development. According to John Mearsheimer, offensive realism assume that power is a means of achieving national interests, is the final goal and power must be obtained as much as possible. Offensive Neorealism assumes that the international system is anarchy and the state constantly looking for opportunities to gain more benefits over other states to achieve national interest. Anarchy international system makes the states have aggressive behavior in international politics. Mearsheimer state that in order to achieve national interest used offensive neorealism, the state needs to fulfill four requirements.26 First, the state capable to build powerful military in their region and other regions, the state has the high economic level to enhance military capability, the state capable to build superior weaponry compared to rival, and the state capable to dominate international organizations because international organizations can secure the legitimize every behavior of the states. In addition, offensive neorealism is a theory of international politics also a foreign policy that reflects the Russia role in the case of the Syrian conflict to support President Bashar Al-Assad against the FSA and ISIS to take advantages in Syria.

25 Anarchy. (2015, February 23). Retrieved from https://www.iapss.org/wp/2015/02/23/anarchy/ 26 John Mearsheimer – Offensive Realism in Brief. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://genius.com/John- mearsheimer-offensive-realism-in-brief-annotated

I.6.3. National Interest National interest is an object to be achieved to fulfill the state needs. National interest becomes main criteria for state actor or decision makers before formulating the policy, determine the attitude and action. National interest can be interpreted as an interest for a minimum of public welfare, the right to maintain viability (survival) of a State, the right economic interests, rights of legal protection. In a more specific meaning which is preserving and maintaining a political identity and culture. National interests are realized that a state could have made a cooperation or even conflict. According to HJ Morgenthau stated that the national interests of the state are pursuing power, that can establish and maintain control one state over other states.27 The relationship of power or control can be created through the techniques of coercion and cooperation of other States.

According to Donald E. Nuechterlein, the national interest of the state has four elements of interests28, that are:

1. Security

It is the main objective of the state to defend itself (self-defense) in the sense to protect population, territory, sovereignty and avoid the threats come from inside or outside the state, and threats are not only a war that is physical but also includes society, government, ideology, and economy.

2. Economy

Economic interest is an interest that aims to improve and enhance the state economy. The economy is one of fundamental interest, because the great or worst economic level of the state, will affect the life of the state as a whole.

27 Navari, C. (n.d.). Hans Morgenthau and the National Interest. Ethics & International Affairs, 30(1)

28 Nuechterlein, D. E. (2009). National interests and foreign policy: A conceptual framework for analysis and decision-making. Review of International Studies.

3. International system

International system interest is an interest which the state can play role in the international world. International system interest is to realize international politic and economic system which are beneficial for the state itself.

4. Ideology

Ideology is an interest which aims to protect and defend the state ideology form the influence of another ideology.

I.6.4. Foreign Policy National interest is a guide for Russia foreign policy. Foreign policy according to Joshua Goldstein is the strategy taken by the government to determine their action in the international world. The concept of foreign policy often related to other concepts uses such as the influence, authority, and forces. Implementation of influence can be done in a way that coercive and non-coercive.29 The force is used including removing the threat or seizure the power in state conflict. Foreign policy involves the goals, strategies, and actions of the states.

Foreign Policy has a middle term goal or long-term goal that can be directly implemented and have a long process to be realized, however, it is the main essence is to be achieved through a series of efforts in the implementation of foreign policy.30 Likewise, the middle-term goal is not the end result to be achieved in the national interest, but the thing is still important, even urgent condition, in an effort to realize the national interest to be achieved through the implementation of foreign policy.

29 Drury, A. Cooper (University of Missouri). (2005). Foreign Policy Analysis.

30 Pfaltzgraff, R., & McClelland, C. A. (n.d.). International relations. Retrieved from https://www.britannica.com/topic/international-relations

I.6.5. Rational Actor Model Foreign policy can be understood as the rational action of state actor in its efforts to achieve its national interests in the international environment. In an analysis of the foreign policy of the state, it is always not spared from the theories, approaches, and models used to describe the scheme of the policy-making process. In rational actor model, the decision is taken by sorting out goals and priorities of the states, then choosing which alternatives can be implemented and has a benefit.31

Goals/ Interest

Dictate Choice have Objectives,

consequences Provide Alternatives

Rationality

Figure 1.2. Cycle of Rational Actor Model

By applying cycle of rational actor model above, people can analyze the reason behind the action of the state actor, or predict action a certain leader would take. Interest/goals are the top priority for the survival of the state. The decision to achieve that goal can be broken down into actions, alternatives, and consequences.32

31 The benchmark for making effective decisions. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.decision-making- solutions.com/rational-decision-making.html 32 Rational choice theory. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/neuroscience/rational-choice-theory

However, state actor has consequences in every choice that he would take and then choose the choice that will be implemented with more benefit and lower costs.

INPUT PROCESS OUTPUT

 Implementation  National interest to Foreign Policy be achieved  Russia Foreign to achieve

Policy decision National  Threat Perception : making Interest by ISIS & The US Political, expand hegemony Economic, and in Syria Military

Figure 1.3 Rational Actor Model

Rational Actor model has its basis in realist school of thought. It explains decision making using the concepts of rationality, interest, choice, and consequence. This model perceives the government/nation as a unitary actor. The model stipulates the goal as maximization of national interest and security of the state.33 Human beings are rational, the meaning of rational is one of the behaviors of using his choices to achieve desired outcomes of the goals. The key to using the rational actor model is to link the goals of the actor and his action by taking consequences. The important thing to the actor is an achievement of his goals, there are several points of decision based on the rational model :

33 Articles Master of Arts in Diplomacy. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://graduate.norwich.edu/resources-mdy/articles-mdy/5-key-approaches-to-foreign-policy- analysis/

1. Determine goals

2. Identifies and analyzes every possible alternatives

3. Investigate consequences of each alternatives

4. Implement of national power instruments to achieve the national interest

I.6.6. D.I.M.E DIME (Diplomacy, informatical, military, economy) is instruments of national power refers to the tool a state used to influence other states or international organization or non-state actor. DIME is the ability of the state to advance its national interest. DIME remind the state actor and policy makers to consider the national power as not limited to the military power alone, state actor necessary build interactions with the other states in terms of four instruments of DIME.34 Diplomacy attempt capable to solve the problem and play role in the international organization as well, information is needed to support the other three instruments, economic interactions used to project power in a different way, also military is necessary to assist the other states to solve the conflict. Russia government state that Syrian conflict cannot be won by military attempt alone, the other instruments of diplomacy, information, military and economic should be implemented in order to support President Bashar Al-Assad to winning the Syrian conflict. Diplomacy, informatical, military and economy instruments used for Russia in the strategic environment to achieve its objectives, which depend on the instruments of DIME discussed herein in effective combinations for Russia to win the war in Syria.

34 Putting the "D" and "I" Back in DIME. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://inhomelandsecurity.com/putting-the-d-and-i-back-in-dime/

I.6.6.1 Diplomacy The State used diplomacy to enhance and strengthen relations with the other states. Diplomacy is principal instrument for engaging the other states to advance values, interests, and objectives, and support for military operations. Diplomatic way also used by Russia to play role in the international organization to protect President Bashar Al-Assad used a veto.35

I.6.6.2. Information Information is an important instrument of national power and strategic resources important to national security.36 Information used to military information, public diplomacy and communication resources. Information consist intelligence to support the military as well.

I.6.6.3. Military The State used the military instrument of national power to support its national security goals and national interest. The purpose of the state armed forces use military instrument is to fight and win the war.37 The military is coercive action, used to face the threat or combat the terrorism. Military power is integrated with the other instruments to reach the states values, interests, and objectives.

I.6.6.4. Economy Economic interaction includes trade and cooperations. Also, strong economic of the state capable to enhance military capability particularly enhance weaponry.38 Russia supports Syria with supplying the weaponry.

35 Kofman, M., & Rojansky, M. (n.d.). Military Review. What Kind of Victory for Russia in Syria? 36 Ibid. 37 Ibid.

38 Yeates, W. (n.d.). Putins World: The Econmic Ties Between Russia & Syria. Retrieved from https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/putins-world-the-econmic-ties-between-russia- syria_us_5921c6a4e4b0b28a33f62d33

I.7. Scope and Limitation of Study

This thesis aims to answer the problem addressed in the research question in the earlier section: “How did the implementation of Russia foreign policy in the Syrian conflict in order to support President Bashar Al-Assad against ISIS and the FSA (2011-2017)?” in order to narrow the focus, the thesis will limit its research to certain extent.

First, this thesis emphasized on the implementation of Russia foreign policy under President Vladimir Putin in the case of the Syrian conflict in order to support President Bashar Al-Assad against FSA and ISIS.

Thus, the research will be conducted on related data and information within the time framework of 2011-2017. The chosen time framework is due to Russia supports the Syrian government since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011 also Russia support the Syrian government as the foreign policy implementation.

I.8. Research Methodology

The research conducted for this thesis will be using qualitative research methodology. It is the form of scientific research and is used to understand a certain study case from theory and perspective.39

Qualitative research is used to understand aspects of social life that cannot be explained by numbers, it refers to data for its analysis. This method is usually used answer the question of ‘what’, ‘why’ and ‘how’.40 Qualitative research gathers sources from the interview, contextual data including observations, reports, and written data or oral data.

The data gathered and referred to this thesis will rely on contextual data: research from books, journals, articles, news and interview transcript from physical data and electronic media.

39 Family Health International, “Qualitative Research Methods: A Data Collector’s Field Guide” pg.1

40 Bricki, Nouria, and Green, Judith, “A Guide to Using Qualitative Research Methodology”, Medecins Sans Frontieres Field Research, 2007.

I.9. Structure of the Thesis

I.9.1. CHAPTER I – Introduction

This chapter consist the introduction of the thesis, the first chapter features the Background of Study, Identification of Problem, Statement of Problem, Research Objectives, Significance of the Study, Theoretical Framework, Scope and Limitation of Study, Research Methodology, and Thesis Structure. This chapter aims to give a comprehensive basic understanding about the focus that will be discussed within this research before going further into the case study.

I.9.2. CHAPTER II – The Strategic Environment of Middle East Region

This chapter provide a comprehensive explanation of changing dynamics of the strategic environment in the Middle East region and North Africa region and Syria after Arab Spring. This chapter as well will discuss the security issue in Syria with the emergence of FSA and ISIS that consider as a threat for President Bashar Al- Assad. This chapter further will explain the importance of Syria strategic environment for Russia. Data, information, and facts in regards to the Russia military intervention in Syria and the other actors involved will be provided and elaborated in this chapter.

I.9.3. CHAPTER III – The Overview of Russia Foreign Policy Toward Syria

This chapter will investigate Russia foreign policy for Syria. First, the explanation consists of input for Russia foreign policy that are national interest to be achieved and Russia threat perception of ISIS that becomes Vladimir Putin consideration to formulate Russia foreign policy. Secondly, it will lead the explanation of Russia foreign policy instruments to support President Bashar Al-Assad.

I.9.4. CHAPTER IV – The Implementation of Russia Foreign Policy In Order to Support President Bashar Al-Assad in 2011 – 2017.

This chapter will explain the implementation of Russia foreign policy in response to changing dynamics of the strategic environment in Syria after Arab Spring with the emergence of the FSA and ISIS. This chapter will elaborate Chapter II and Chapter III to explain in more detail about the implementation of Russia foreign policy in order to support President Bashar Al-Assad fight against the FSA and ISIS by political, economic, and military. Furthermore, this chapter will explain the implementation of Russia foreign policy through military operations of Russia – Syria in the fight against the FSA and ISIS.

I.9.5. CHAPTER V – Conclusion

The last chapter will conclude the whole of thesis, recommendations and suggestions to the topic of this thesis that may be advantageous for further research as well for international relations students.

CHAPTER II

THE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT OF MIDDLE EAST REGION

II.1. THE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT OF MIDDLE EAST II.1.1. The Wave of Arab Spring Arab Spring is the wave of revolution in the Middle East and North Africa region that began on 17 December 2010 in Tunisia in the Tunisian revolution. The wave of revolution in the Middle East and North Africa region sometimes known as Arab Awakening or Arab Uprising.41 However, most familiar known as the Arab Spring. Arab Spring referred to Arab revolutions which involve demonstration, riots, foreign intervention, and civil wars. Arab spring revolution divided the state into two blocs which are anti-government and pro-government. The Tunisian revolution strongly affected to five other states Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain, where those states occurred social violence during the demonstration. The violence did by those government toward civilians who did the demonstration as well as from pro- government militias to counter demonstrators with violence. Arab Spring resulted in the large scale of conflict, in Syria following by the Syria civil war, Iraqi insurgency following the civil war, the Egyptian crisis occurred coup and insurgency, Libyan civil war, and the Yemeni crisis following Yemen civil war. The vacuum of power in some Arab states came down to a contentious battle to struggle for power between a consolidation of power by religious elites and growing support for democracy in Muslim majority states. The first expectation of Arab Spring revolution was to end the government corruption, increase political participation with democracy, and bring the greater economic development in some Arab states to end the poverty and unemployment.42

41 The Arab Awakening. (2012). Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/general/2011/04/20114483425914466.html

42 The Latest Way to Solve Poverty in the Middle East. (2012, December). Retrieved from http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/?fa=50403

The Arab spring began on 17 December 2010 in Tunisia were caused by high unemployment, food inflation, corruption a lack of political freedom such as freedom of speech and poor living condition. The escalation of protest was the self- immolation of Tunisian Mohammed Bouazizi caused unable to get a job and unable to sell his fruit at the roadside stand in Sidi Bouzid city, Bouazizi wares confiscated by a municipal inspector on 17 December 2010. Then, an hour later he doused himself with gasoline and set himself a fire. His attempt began the Tunisian revolution on 18 December 2010 in Sidi Bouzid city due to ill-treatment of government.43 His death on 4 January 2011 triggered various groups who dissatisfied with the Tunisia government system, involved many of unemployment, human rights activist, labors, trade unionist, students and professors, lawyers and that began the Tunisian revolution with massive demonstrations and riot.

The demonstration resulted in a high level of death and injuries, that were the respond of police and state official against the demonstrators. However, massive demonstrations by civilian succeed overthrew Tunisian authoritarian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. After 28 days ran the demonstration, Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali resigned from His position on 14 January 2011 after led for 23 years. After resigned, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali also known as Ben Ali flees into exile in Saudi Arabia. The succeed of overthrew Ben Ali position affected to the dissolution of the former ruling party Democratic Constitutional Rally (Ben Ali party) and liquidation of its assets.44 Tunisia civilian is the most organized demonstration that often occurred on a day of rage usually on Friday afternoon prayer. Tunisia transition into democratic governance. The succeed of Tunisia civilian overthrew their leader triggered the demonstration outside Tunisia, widespread to other Arab states Egypt, Yemen, and Syria to bring down their authoritarian government.

43 Tunisia suicide protester Mohammed Bouazizi dies. (2011, January 05). Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-12120228

44 Davies, W. (2011, January 15). Tunisia: President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali forced out. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-12195025

Meanwhile, in Egypt, the demonstration began on 25 January 2011 inspired by the wave of revolution in Tunisia. Since 28 January, the Egyptian government attempted succeed eliminate the nation internet access in order to prevent the civilian ability to used media to organized demonstration through social media. Egyptian government blocked Facebook and the other internet access in five days. However, internet blackout and blocked social media failed to stop the demonstration, instead more triggered the civilian.45 Later that day, ten thousand civilians came down on the street did the demonstration in major cities of Egypt. The demonstrations by Egypt civilian aims to enforce the democracy in Egypt through bring down authoritarian leader Hosni Mubarak. The demonstration ran for 18 days, Egypt President Hosni Mubarak later appointed a new cabinet also appointed the first Vice President in almost 30 years.46 On 10 February, President Hosni Mubarak hand over his presidential position to Vice President Omar Suleiman. However, Hosni Mubarak announced that he would remain as President until the end of his Presidential term.

Thereafter announced his Presidential term, demonstration continued the next day, Omar Suleiman immediately announced that Hosni Mubarak resigned from Presidency and power transferred to Armed forces of Egypt. The military dissolved the Egyptian parliament and implemented the thirty-year emergency laws. Thus, politician Essam Sharaf was appointed on 4 March 2011 as Prime Minister of Egypt in order to enforce the democracy through speech in front of Tahrir square, Cairo, after Friday prayer addressed pro-democracy activist and civilian and He committed to democratic transition in Egypt.47 The demonstration continued until the end of 2011 due to Egypt civilian concern about the supreme council of armed forces considered sluggish in implemented reforms. On 30 June 2012, Mohamed Morsi inaugurated as Egypt first democratically elected President. Afterward, 22 November 2012 civilian started Anti Morsi demonstration due to the President was an

45 Dainotti, A. (n.d.). Analysis of Country-wide Internet Outages Caused by Censorship [Abstract]. 1. Retrieved from http://www.caida.org/publications/papers/2011/outages_censorship/outages_censorship.pdf

46 Shenker, J. (2011, January). Warning Egypt could follow Tunisia. Retrieved from https://www.theage.com.au/world/warning-egypt-could-follow-tunisia-20110119-19wly.html

47 In Egypt, crowd cheers newly appointed prime minister Essam Sharaf. (2011, March 05). Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/04/AR2011030406364.html

22 authoritarian leader which implemented Islam law without considered the interest of secular opposition. The Demonstration became violent which five people Anti Morsi were killed. Egyptian military gave an ultimatum to Morsi however it denied. On 3 July 2012, Egyptian armed forces coup President Morsi and appointed head of constitutional court Adly Mansour as the interim President of Egypt.48

Figure 2.1 Map of The Arab Spring Source: http://arabcooking.me/map-of-the-arab-spring.html/newsela-the-arab-spring-endear-map-of- countries-with-world-maps-at

During the Arab Spring, social media and digital technologies give influence on political activism such as propaganda and organized demonstration. The demonstration took place in the states with high level of internet usage such as Bahrain with 88% of the population online in 2011, Egypt with 45% of the population online in 2011, also Tunisia with 41% of the population online in 2011.49 The intensity of social media was increase in Arab states during the demonstration except for Libya due to the low level of internet usage with 17% population.

48 The Arab Spring. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://newsela.com/read/lib-arab-spring/id/29126/

49 Schillinger, R. (2011, September 20). Social Media and the Arab Spring: What Have We Learned? Retrieved from https://www.huffingtonpost.com/raymond-schillinger/arab-spring-social- media_b_970165.html

The social media showed collective intelligence that social media such as Facebook or Youtube has the power to support a collective action that affected the political change. On April 2011, the number of Facebook users in Arab states surpassed 27.7 million people that digital technologies and other forms of communication such as videos, phones, blogs, photos, e-mails have brought the concept of digital democracy in Arab states.50

The propaganda of Arab spring is “Ash-sha`b yurid isqat an-nizam” means the people want to bring down this regime. Propaganda through social media played an important role for Tunisian and Egyptian activist movement due to Tunisia and Egypt has a high level of internet usage.51 During the Arab spring, statistic shows that the number of social media users increase significantly especially facebook in Arab states where took place of political uprising. During the Arab spring as well, people created pages on Facebook in order to raise awareness about violence, human rights, and ill-treatment of government. In the low level of internet usage states such as Yemen and Libya, social media has a limited role. Yemen and Libya utilized mainstream electronic media devices such as phones, texts, and e-mails. In Egypt, besides social media, mosques were one main platform to coordinate and communicate the demonstration and raise the awareness of civilian. However, despite social media played an important role to gathered the demonstrator and spread the awareness of the unfair government, it did not create the final solution to resolve the state conflict.

50 E. (2013, February 08). Egypt and Tunisia's new 'Arab winter'. Retrieved from http://www.euronews.com/2013/02/08/egypt-and-tunisia-s-new-arab-winter 51 NATO. (n.d.). Social media: Cause, effect and response. Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/docu/review/2011/social_medias/21st-century-statecraft/EN/index.htm

II.1.2. THE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT OF SYRIA II.1.2.1. The Beginning of Syria Civil War On 17 July 2000, Bashar Al-Assad officially inaugurated as 19th President of Syria and become a successor of His father Hafez Al-Assad who was 18th President of Syria from 1971-2000.52 Bashar Al-Assad also commander in chief of the Syrian Armed Forces, General Secretary of Arab socialist Ba’ath party and regional secretary of the party branch in Syria. Bashar Al-Assad is heir apparent presidency of Hafez Al Assad, due to Bashar brother, Bassel Al-Assad died in a car crash on 21 January 1994. Bashar Al-Assad was recalled to Syria to take over Bassel’s role and entered Syria military academy in Homs. On January 1999, Bashar promoted Colonel and became political advisor President Hafez Al-Assad. On 10 June 2000, Hafez Al- Assad passed away. Then, Bashar Al-Assad was elected as Syrian President in 2000 after received 99.7% support.53 After the death of his father as well, the Syrian constitution was amended which minimum age requirement for President was lowered from 40 to 34 (which Bashar aged at that time). Official become Syrian President since 2000, His wife Asma Al-Assad is Sunni Muslim inspired for democratic reforms.54 Bashar promised to change Syria into democratic governance due to the Damascus spring.

The Damascus Spring was a period of political and social debate from June 2000 after the death of President Hafez Al-Assad until August 2001. During the Damascus spring, 99 Syrian intellectuals made the statement of 99 which to called the state emergency should be ended and called the political reform such as freedom of speech, political prisoners to be pardoned also demanded that Article 8 of the Syrian constitution should be repealed. The Article 8 state that “Ba’ath Party leads the states and the society”. During Hafez Al-Assad presidency, the political activity strictly controlled by the government and security agency at that day served to monitor

52 Syria profile - Timeline. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east- 14703995

53 Kifner, J. (n.d.). Syrians Vote To Confirm Assad's Son As President. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2000/07/11/world/syrians-vote-to-confirm-assad-s-son-as-president.html 54 Asma al-Assad. (2012, March 19). Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria- asma/asma-al-assad-a-desert-rose-crushed-by-syrias-strife-idUSBRE82I0MB20120319

25 political dissent. After the statement of 99, emerged the statement of 1000 consist 1000 intellectuals in January 2001 criticized one-party rule to called for multiparty democracy. 55 Syria officially established Republic in 1963 and governed by the Ba’ath Party until nowadays also Ba’ath consist majority of Shia Muslim adherents. The Damascus spring ended caused by the arrested and imprisonment of 10 activist leaders who called democratic and campaign of civil disobedience. Some analysts argued that Bashar Al-Assad failed to deliver democratic reforms. However, the subsequent election in May 2007, Bashar Al-Assad received 97.6% supporting his continued leadership and approved for another seven-year term of Presidency.56

During Hafez Al-Assad Presidency, He implemented free market policy in the later year and accelerated since Bashar Al-Assad served as President. Free market policies in Syria affected social economic inequality increased significantly. Emphasis on the service sector, that free market policy benefited for the minority of state population mostly the people who had connections with the government and mostly Shia Muslim group. In 2010, nominal GDP per capita of Syria was $2,834 which is far lower than its neighbors Lebanon with an annual growth rate of 3.39%.57 Syria faced high youth of unemployment rates, for example in 2002, Syria unemployment reached 26%. Thus, according to statistic, the number of unemployment in Syria was closer to 20% in 2009. Moreover, 70% Syria labor earn less than U$100/month which most Syrian people live in poverty. Then, in 2010, Syria has a population of 21 million people and consist 3.5 million people has no income.58 Before Arab spring occurred in Syria, dissatisfied of civilian toward government was stronger in Syria poor areas

55 Syrian ‘Damascus Spring’ activist set free. (2011, November). Retrieved from https://web.archive.org/web/20111117130608/http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/syrian-‘damascus- spring’-activist-set-free-2011-11-15

56 Black, I. (May). Democracy Damascus style: Assad the only choice in referendum. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/may/28/syria.ianblack

57 Youth exclusion in Syria: Social, economic and institutional dimensions. (2014, March 20). Retrieved from https://journalistsresource.org/studies/international/development/youth-exclusion-in- syria-economic 58 Rebels in Syria's largest city of Aleppo mostly poor, pious and from rural backgrounds. (2012, October). Retrieved from http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/10/16/rebels-in-syria-largest-city- aleppo-mostly-poor-pious-and-from-rural.html

26 predominantly Sunni Muslim people which live in the cities that have high poverty rates are in Daara and Homs.

Besides economic issue that triggered demonstration in Syria, Human rights also is an important issue in Syria. Freedom of expression and speech were strictly controlled by the government. Human rights activist who criticized the government always arrested by authorities and often tortured while under the prison. Also, women faced discrimination in the public sector. Bashar Al-Assad had failed to improve the human rights in Syria since taking power.59

The dissatisfied of Syria civilian with economic condition and human rights issue in Syria are the internal factor initiated Arab spring occurred in Syria. The succeed Tunisia, Egyptian, and Libya civilian overthrew their authoritarian leader becomes motivation and awareness of Syria civilian to bring down Assad government with enforcing the democracy.60 The minor demonstration in Syria started on 26 January 2011 called government reforms and the police officers assaulted a man in Al- Hareeka street, Damascus, and that man was arrested after the assault. The demonstrators called for freedom of the arrested man. Thus, the Syrian activist called some civilian and set up the Syrian day of rage to be held on Friday 4 February after Friday prayer, however, it did not result in a demonstration. However, on the night of 11 was Hosni Mubarak downfall, the youth civilian of Syria written a graffiti under Damascus bridge read “Now it’s your turn, Doctor!” refferred to President Bashar Al-Assad who was an eye doctor before entered Syria Armed Forces.61

59 No Room to Breathe | State Repression of Human Rights Activism in Syria. (2015, April). Retrieved from https://www.hrw.org/report/2007/10/16/no-room-breathe/state-repression-human-rights- activism-syria#_ftn11

60 Krokowska, K. (2011). The Fall of Democracy in Syria. Retrieved from http://sam.gov.tr/the-fall- of-democracy-in-syria/

61 D. B. (2017). The boy whose graffiti changed the world: On sixth anniversary of Syria's civil war, the youth who sparked it by scrawling on a wall says he regrets the deaths but the country 'had to change' . Retrieved from http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4312502/The-boy-anti-Assad- graffiti-changed-world.html

The Minor demonstration in January 2011 transformed into a massive demonstration in March 2011. The massive demonstrations in Syria began on 15 March 2011. However on 6 March 2011, Syria police officers arrested 15 children in Daara, southern Syria after wrote propaganda Ash-sha’b yurid isqat an-nizam against the government at their school wall. The police officers tortured 15 children from prominent families, a 13 years old boy, Hamza al-Khateeb was tortured and killed.62 Tortured and killed children by the police officers triggered the rage of Daraa civilian. Daraa was the first city did the demonstration against the Ba’ath party who has been ruling since 1963.

On 15 March, the large scale of demonstration began demanded to release political prisoners, freedoms, and reduce the government corruption and improve the economic level. A Thousand demonstrators gathered in Damascus, Aleppo, Al- Hasakah, Daraa, and Homs led by Suhair Atassi female activist from government opposition becoming an unofficial spokesperson for the Syrian revolution.63 In the next day, the government claimed that arrested 3000 peoples and a few casualties. The next day as well, confrontations between the demonstrators and local police officers escalated on March 18 after Friday prayers. The Syrian Army assaulted the demonstrators who gathered at the Omari Mosque, Daraa, used tear gas followed by firearms and killing four civilians. On March 20, the civilian burned down a Ba’ath party headquarters and Syrian Army responded with firearms at the crowds attacked focal points of the demonstration and resulted in the death of fifteen demonstrators. Until on 25 March, the demonstration spread nationwide. The massive demonstrators emerged after Friday prayer on 25 March and subsequently spread to the other Syria cities Homs, Hama, Aleppo, Baniyas, Jasim, Damascus, and Latakia and resulted 20 demonstrators were reportedly killed.64

62 Syria's crackdown - The Irish Times - Tue, May 31, 2011. (2011, May). Retrieved from https://web.archive.org/web/20111026093919/http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0 531/1224298143757.html

63 Khalaf, R. (2012). Thorn in the side of the Assad regime. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/68d5cf72-6dc5-11e1-b9c7-00144feab49a

64 Ibid.

Until on 7 April 2011, the demonstrators still demanded democratic reforms, freedom of speech and expression, release political prisoners, an abolition of the 48 years emergency law, reduce the government corruption and improve the economic level.65 On 8 April, the demonstration shifted to calling for bring down the Assad government and the demonstration occurred simultaneously in ten cities. On 18 April, approximately 100.000 demonstrators gathered in the central city of Homs calling for the resignation of President Bashar Al-Assad. On 22 April, the large scale of the demonstration was increased and occurred in twenty cities.66

The demonstration continued, the Syrian government began deployed major military operations to suppress resistance, signaling a new phase in the demonstration. On 25 April, Daraa which had become a first focal point of the demonstration, was one of the first cities to be besieged by Syrian Army. 6.000 soldiers were deployed and firing their firearms at demonstrators and search house to house to beat demonstrators and hundreds of people arrested.67 Tanks were deployed for the first time also snipers took the position on rooftops against the demonstrators. Mosque utilized as demonstrators headquarters to organize the demonstration.

Before the Arab spring began in Syria, the Syrian government had made numerous arrests of political dissidents and human rights activist, many of them were labeled terrorist by the Assad government. Police officers and Syrian Army responded violent toward demonstrators with water cannons, tear gas, and beat demonstrators with firing firearms. In March and April 2011, Syrian government promised to reduce the chaos with offered political reforms and policy changes. Bashar Al-Assad fired Governor of Daraa as apparent attempt to reduce the corruption. The government announced that would release prisoners (politician and activist), cut taxes, raise the salaries of public sector workers, increase job vacancies, and provide freedom of speech and freedom of expression.68 However, the announced reforms were not implemented. Besides those problems, the government dominated by Shia Islam or

65 Jazeera, A. (2011, April 19). Syria to lift decades-old emergency law. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/04/2011419135036463804.html 66 Ibid. 67 Ibid. 68 Ibid.

Alawite sect that made concessions to the majority Sunni and minority populations. However, anti-government continued due to the rage of civilian toward Syrian Army and government that killed over one hundred civilian in March and April 2011.

Since minor demonstration began in Syria until mid-March 2011, the Syrian government did a campaign to arrest the demonstrators and captured ten thousand peoples. In response to the demonstrators, the Syrian government had been changed the Syrian law to allow the Police officers and Syrian Armed forces to detain a suspect for eight days without an arrest warrant.69 Arrest focused on political activist and men from the towns that Syrian Army would start to besiege in April. Those people who detained by police and Syrian Armed forces experienced ill-treatment such as some were beaten and some were electrically jolted.

The demonstrations continued throughout the following months in 2011. Throughout May, Syrian Army besieged and blockaded several towns around Damascus during demonstrations such as Baniyas, Homs, Talkalakh, and Latakia. The situation similar to those occurred in Daraa last April. After the end of each siege, violent toward demonstrators continued throughout the following months. After the siege as well, by 24 May, 1.062 people killed during demonstrations and had been documented by the National Organization for Human rights in Syria.70

As the demonstration progressed in order to bring down Assad regime, demonstrators became armed equipped and more organized. The first incident of armed demonstrators occurred on 4 June 2011 in Jisr ash-Shugur, is a city in the Idlib governorate in northwestern Syria bordered with Turkey. The demonstrators burned building and eight Syrian Army died in a fire and took the Syrian Army weaponry. Then, the demonstrators took control of police station to seized weaponry. The significant armed resistance against state security took place on that day as well, when some Syrian Army and intelligence executed soldiers who had refused to shoot civilians. Then, more soldiers defected to protect demonstrators and cooperated with

69 Macfarquhar, N., & Stack, L. (2011, April). Syrian Protesters Clash With Security Forces. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/02/world/middleeast/02syria.html

70 Jazeera, A. (2011, May 24). Syria death toll 'surpasses 1,000'. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/05/2011524182251952727.html

30 the armed civilian. On 6 June, Sunni civilian and Army defectors ambushed a group of Syrian Armed forces who want to head to the city. Later, the government deployed a large scale counter-attack. Fearing killed, the defectors along with 10.000 civilian fled across the Turkish border.71 Two senior military and security officers defected to the government opposition.

In June and July 2011, demonstrations continued when government expanded military operations significantly, deployed tanks and conducted arrest. The Rastan, Talbiseh, and Maarat al-Numaan cities besieged in early June. On 30 June, larger demonstration escalated in Aleppo, Syria largest city, against Assad government. On 3 July, Syria tanks deployed to Hama, two days after the largest demonstration against President Bashar Al-Assad in Aleppo. On July 29, a group of defectors officers declared of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)72, composed of Syria Armed Forces personnel, the rebel army attempt to remove Bashar Al-Assad and his government from power.

II.1.2.2. Geopolitical Changes After Arab Spring in Syria Since a minor demonstration until a massive demonstration in Syria, thousands of death have fallen in Syria. In 2012, which one year of the insurgency, the Syrian conflict has fluctuated that the insurgency continued with the government action tackled the demonstrators who threaten the survival of Ba’ath party in Syria. The Syrian conflict became the spotlight and concern of international media and international organizations after the Arab spring. The United Nation Commission on Human Rights, as well as United Nations, involved resolving the insurgency in Syria. In early January 2012, Kofi Annan acted as the UN-Arab League Joint Special Representative for Syria responsible to protect and uphold the humanity and participate in the conflict resolution in Syria. On 27 December 2011 – 19 January 2012, Arab League sent 60 Observers to Syria to analyze the situation in order to

71 Holliday, J. (2011). Struggle For Syria in 2011. Middle East Security Report 2,1-29. Retrieved from http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Struggle_For_Syria.pdf 72 Jazeera, A. (2012, July). Interactive: Tracking Syria's defections. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/syriadefections/

31 result in the resolution.73 However, the observers failed after Syria withdrew from the Arab League and the Syrian government prevented the observers to observe in the battlefield. Thus, the battle between the Syrian Armed forces troops against militant opposition continued across the states throughout following months in 2012.

The Middle East is a shatterbelt region, which area that has many internal conflicts and intervened by foreign state actors.74 Syrian conflict occurred caused by the Arab Spring, the Syrian conflict become a competition between the United States and Russia to expand its influence. Syria conflict also becomes an international concern due to many of states and various actors involved on issues of Human rights and the power struggle with conflict resolution. The United States supported the opposition include rebels for democratization in the Middle East and expand the United States hegemony. Meanwhile, Russia supported the Syrian government as part of Russia foreign policy to intervene in Syria conflict. Many state actors are involved in Syria conflict, the Arab League, Turkey, United Kingdom, are the United States alliances and stand above their own interest which one is to democratization in Syria. Russia is the greatest ally of Syria government. Since elected as Russian President in 2012, Vladimir Putin put a great attention and defend Bashar Al-Assad position as Syrian President.

International reactions toward Syrian civil war called for the Syrian government to dissolve. The Arab League and United Nations including western countries condemned Syria government due to did violent. On October 2011, The United States and alliances proposed United Nations Security Council (UNSC) draft resolution S/2011/612 which contain :

73 Lundgren, M. (n.d.). Mediation in Syria: Initiatives, strategies, and obstacles, 2011-2016. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303312425_Mediation_in_Syria_Initiatives_strategies_an d_obstacles_2011-2016.

74 Bayard, C. (2012, November). Settler States and the Shatterbelt. Retrieved from http://www.war- times.org/mir/2012/november/english

“strongly condemned the continued grave and systematic human rights violations and the use of force against civilians by the Syrian authorities, and expresses profound regret at the deaths of thousands of people; children and women”. 75

S/2011/612 draft resolution threatened Assad government with political and economic sanctions. However, Russia and China vetoed UNSC draft resolution. Russia vetoed due to those sanctions burdening Syria government. On 31 January 2012, UNSC discussed a Western-Arab League resolution that demanded to immediately stop military actions, also Arab League peace plan called on Assad to remove his power. On 4 February 2012, the resolutions and peace plan canceled due to Russia and China vetoed.76 The Russian veto against UNSC became a protector for Syria from west intervention. Russia actions used veto as a form of support without limit on Syria.

The succeed of west intervention in the Middle East such as overthrew Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi, the United States includes west countries aims to resolve another state conflict which is Syria civil war. The United States stated that Bashar Al-Assad should resign from his position to end up the conflict. Moreover, democracy is one of the goals of Arab Spring, due to the Middle East countries used the monarchy system that the election of leaders seen by the lineage, not by election. The United States expand its influence with intervening in the conflict for the goal of democracy. The superpower title of the United States able to intervene the conflict in the Middle East for the goal of democracy and expect the Middle East countries used democracy system. Beside the expand influence of democracy, Middle East region has rich in natural resources.77 The United States also aims to expand hegemony with military invasion in Syria since 2014. The states who have strong military power one by one began involved in Syria conflict. However, the important states actor of the Syrian

75 UN Documents. (2011, October 4). Retrieved from http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/un- documents/document/syria-s2011-612.php

76 Ibid. 77 Fisher, M., & Taub, A. (2016). Syria Provokes an American Anxiety: Is U.S. Power Really So Special? Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/09/world/middleeast/syria-provokes-an- american-anxiety-is-us-power-really-so-special.html

33 conflict are Russia and the United States aims to dominate the Middle East region through resolve the conflict.

The United States supported the opposition to bring down Assad regime, while Russia does not stop giving the support to Bashar Al-Assad with a veto. Russia also placed the Russian naval facility in Tartus port since November 2011 as a form of support Bashar Al-Assad. Russia sent marine careers and destroyer ships. Russian marine career facilitates the Syrian marines to some center of resistance by rebels. The ships also tasked to destruct the rebel military base and destruct rebel weaponry system who attacked Syrian government.78

Syrian conflict occurred since 2011 until nowadays. Syrian environment becomes a struggle for power for Russia, western countries, and Islamist groups Sunni adherents. After Arab spring in Syria, President Bashar Al-Assad facing the threat of his governance that emerged Sunni Islamist factions and emerged the Armed defectors called Free Syria Army that assisted by the western countries.79 Russia did the direct intervention to support President Bashar Al-Assad against his opposition, Putin considers that Middle East region is important to reach national interest of Russia.

78 Russia sending warships to its base in Syria. (2011, November 28). Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-syria-warships/russia-sending-warships-to-its-base-in- syria-idUSTRE7AR0S820111128

79 Ibid.

II.2. The Threat Assessment of Syria Government II.2.1. The Emergence of The Free Syrian Army (FSA) During the Syrian civil war on the end of April 2011, occurred the first defections from Syrian Army when the army sent to Daara to fought ongoing demonstration. There was some army refused to fire on demonstrators and had split from the army. During the Syrian civil war as well, the army who refused to fire civilians summarily executed by the army. On 4 June 2011 in the Idlib in governorate northwestern Syria, Syria demonstrators which majority Sunni Islam adherents took Syrian Armed forces weaponry after burned the police station and became Armed rebels against the Syrian government. The Syrian Army and intelligence sent to fight ongoing demonstration in Jisr ash-Shugur, Idlib governorate.80 However, Syrian Army and intelligence shot the army who refused to shoot civilians. At the same time, more Syrian army defected to protect civilians. On 6 June, the army defectors and Sunni civilian attacked the Syrian Armed forces who want to head to the Idlib. In late July 2011, the defectors who former Syrian Army ranked officers announced the established Free Syrian Army (FSA) that consist of former Syrian armed forces, civilian, and volunteers.

II.2.1.1. The Establishment of The FSA Free Syrian Army (FSA) is a Syrian armed opposition group and considered as the main Syrian military defectors group. FSA established by former Colonel in Syrian Air forces, Colonel Riad Mousa al-Assad also known as Riad al-Assad who defected from Syria Armed forces on 29 July 2011. FSA announced its establishment by a video released on the internet showed uniformed Syrian military who defected and Riad al-Assad spoke alongside other defectors and called the civilian to join them.81 Riad al-Assad has announced his defection since 4 July 2011, and he founded the FSA on 29 July 2011. Riad al-Assad stated the goal of FSA was to bring down the President Bashar Al-Assad. On August 2011, Riad al-Assad announced that FSA cooperates with demonstrators to bring down the regime. At the same time, Riad al-

80 Holliday, J. (march 2012). Syrian Armed Opposition. Middle East Security Report 3,1-59. Retrieved from https://web.archive.org/web/20120512145439/http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/S yrias_Armed_Opposition.pdf

81 Ibid.

Assad also announced that the Syrian government, Syrian Armed forces, and police attacked civilian as the targeted was facts. As highly organized and well-armed opposition, the FSA adopted the guerilla-style tactics mainly armed with AK-47.82 The FSA military strategy focused on a dispersed guerilla campaign with a tactical focus on armed action in cities and countryside. The campaign used to degrade the morale of the government and destabilize Damascus.

Colonel Riad al-Assad explained that the FSA resulted from the defected soldier who has a sense of nationalistic, loyalty to the people, decisive action to stop government killings, and soldier responsibility to protect unarmed people. Riad al-Assad intention cooperates with the demonstrators to achieve freedom and dignity through bring down President Bashar al-Assad. Riad al-Assad called on the officers from Syrian Armed forces to defect and stop pointed their rifles at the people or demonstrators and called to join FSA that can protect the Syrian people. Riad al-Assad also stated that Syrian Armed forces represent the group who protect the regime and declared the Syrian Armed forces and police killed the civilian as the legitimate target until now. Riad al-Assad aims to take control of all of the Syrian territory without exception and stated that

“You will find us everywhere at all the times, and you will see that which you do not expect until we re-establish the rights and freedom of our people”.83

During the first defection of Riad al-Assad, Army defectors, Sunni militia, and the other civilian ambushed a group of Syrian Armed forces heading to the Idlib city. However, the Syrian Armed forces deployed the large scale of counter-attack. On 27 September to 1 October, Syrian Armed forces led a major offensive to Rastan city, Homs governorate which controlled by the opposition for a couple weeks. Then, FSA reported destroyed 17 armored vehicles used landmine and Rocker Propelled

82 Syria's army weakened by growing desertions. (2012, January). Retrieved from https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-syria-defections/syrias-army-weakened-by-growing-desertions- idUKTRE80C0ST20120113 83 Raman, S. (2011, November). The Beginnings of the Syrian Civil War. Retrieved 2018, from https://web.archive.org/web/20120425233656/http://subyraman.com/the-beginnings-of-the-syrian- civil-war/

36 grenades (RPG) during clashes in Rastan. The battle between Syrian Armed forces and the FSA was the most intense action at that time. After fought in a week, the FSA retreated from Rastan due to fear of massacre. The defectors along with 10.000 civilians and Sunni militia fled across to Turkish border and arrived in Turkish officers camp in Hatay Province of Turkey.84 Riad al-Assad and the groups are under the protection of Turkish Armed forces. In October 2011, FSA headquartered in Turkey and started receiving military support from Turkey. The Turkish Armed forces allowed the FSA to operated its command and headquarters from Southern Hatay Province which is close to the Syrian border. The FSA often deployed attacks to Syria northwestern cities and used Turkish side of the border as a safe zone and supply route. In early December, estimated the number of defectors to the FSA ranged from 15.000 – 25.000. The FSA consisted of 90% Sunni Muslim, small minorities were Christians and Kurds.85

II.2.1.2. The United States and Allies support to The FSA Since the FSA establishment on 29 July 2011, the FSA has allies which received military aid from The United States, United Kingdom, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the NATO members. In July 2011, the Department of Foreign Affairs of the United States, Hillary Clinton stated that President Bashar Al-Assad had lost legitimacy. On 18 August 2011, President Barrack Obama written statement that “the future of Syria must be determined by its people” and the United States and allies consistently stated that Bashar Al-Assad should lead a democratic transition or resign from the position.86 However, President Bashar Al-Assad defends his position with the brutal crackdown on civilians. The first foreign military aid of the FSA occurred in October 2011 after the FSA battled in Rastan, Turkey began sheltering the FSA, offer a safe zone and base of operation. The Turkish Armed forces trained the FSA on its territory Hatay province and the FSA became under Turkish intelligence supervision. The

84 Syrian rebels: Too fragmented, unruly. (2012, September 01). Retrieved from http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/syrian-rebels-too-fragmented-unruly-29158 85 Syria's Armed Opposition: A Brief Overview. (2013, February). Retrieved from http://carnegie- mec.org/diwan/50896?lang=en 86 President Obama: "The future of Syria must be determined by its people, but President Bashar al-Assad is standing in their way." (2011, August). Retrieved from https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2011/08/18/president-obama-future-syria-must-be- determined-its-people-president-bashar-al-assad

Turkish Armed Forces also provided the FSA with arm and the other military equipment. The United States and allies support the FSA due to its aims expand hegemony through bring down President Bashar al-Assad.

The FSA continued its attack on the Syrian government. In 2012, The United States did non-lethal aid such as food rations, while CIA involved in a covert program armed and trained the FSA.87 In June 2012, CIA involved in covert operation along the Turkish borders and provided arms. The CIA also assisted the FSA to develop supply routes and provided them with communication training. The CIA distributed assault rifles, anti-tank rocket launchers, and other ammunition for the FSA. The Department of Foreign Affairs of the United States has allocated $15 million for a civilian opposition in Syria. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom also involved in covert with the United States since June 2011. The SAS commando conducted covert operations within Syrian territory and operated from Turkey on 26 June. The United Kingdom provided the FSA with medical supplies and provided the intelligence support from its Cyprus bases. Since December 2012, Saudi Arabia has supplied the FSA with arms, the arms included M79 Osa anti-tank weapons and M-60 recoilless rifles purchased by Saudi Arabia from Croatia.88

In April 2013, President Barrack Obama promised to double non-lethal aid to the FSA, specifically to $250 million. One year later in April 2014, the FSA used antitank rockets made by the United States BGM-71 TOW missiles which the first significant United States armaments in the Syrian conflict.89 In 2014, the United States and allies have given training, financial, non-lethal aid and lethal-aid to the FSA. In 2014 also, the FSA trained by the United States, Turkish, Saudi Arabia military officers at the NATO base in Southern Turkey.

87 Ibid. 88 Davis, C. (2013, February 26). Saudi Arabia Arming Syrian Rebels With Croatian Weapons Since December 2012. Retrieved from https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/26/saudi-arabia- arming-syrian-rebels_n_2764375.html

89 Perry, T. (2015, November 25). Syrian army source: Rebels make heavy use of TOW missiles. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-arms/syrian-army-source- rebels-make-heavy-use-of-tow-missiles-idUSKBN0TE1KJ20151125

In 2015, the United States continued sent weapons shipments to the FSA through CIA program since 2012. The United States with allies had broadened the number of FSA members clandestinely after the FSA received TOW missiles. The International business reported that TOW missiles attack against Syrian Armed forces increased by 850% between September and October 2015. The Saudi Arabia official confirmed the delivery of 500 TOW missiles to FSA fighters in October 2015. According to the Syrian government, the missiles delivered by the United States through Turkish territory.90 Arms deliveries from the United States and allies (United Kingdom, Turkey, Saudi Arabia) increased the FSA power significantly, and the western countries and the FSA have a goal that bring down President Bashar Al-Assad.

II.2.1.3. Syria Territorial Claim by FSA Since November 2011, the FSA operated throughout Syria territory which urban and countryside area, operated in the Northwestern of Syria Idlib and Aleppo governorate, the central region of Syria Homs and Hama governorate, the coast of Latakia, the Southern of Syria Daara governorate and Houran plateau, and the eastern of Syria Deir ez-Zor governorate and Damascus capital city, and their largest concentration were in Homs and Hama with nine active battalions. On 16 November, the FSA did a coordinated attack on Syrian air force intelligence complex in the Damascus suburb, Harasta. The FSA did attack with machine guns and RPG killed six soldiers. The next day, the FSA launched the RPG against the Ba’ath party youth headquarter in Idlib governorate. The FSA continued its attack on the airbase in Homs governorate on 25 November, six elite pilots, one technical officer, and three other personnel were killed.91 At the same time, the Syrian Army and intelligence were killed during the clash with the FSA in eastern Syria.

The clashes sustained in Idlib governorate on 26 November, the FSA killed 8 Syrian Army and 40 wounded. On 1 December, the FSA launched a raid on an intelligence building in Idlib and killed 8 Syrian Army. On the same day, the UN announced that Syria considered being in civil war. On 11 December, the clash between the FSA and

90 Birkner, G. (n.d.). Middle East state reportedly sends rebels antitank missiles. Retrieved from http://www.timesofisrael.com/middle-east-state-reportedly-sends-rebels-antitank-missiles/ 91 Associated Press, & Reuters. (n.d.). Activists report fierce battles in eastern Syria. Retrieved from https://www.haaretz.com/1.5213536

Syrian Army continued throughout the night until dawn on 12 December, The FSA killed 10 ten Syrian Army in the ambush on a convoy in Idlib, that attack was to revenge the death of the civilian in Idlib governorate in the previous day. On 21 December, reported that the FSA had taken control over Idlib governorate include towns and villages. The clash between the FSA and Syrian Armed forces sustained in 2012, by January 2012, the FSA succeed controlled the Zabadani town in Damascus governorate after intense clashes with the Syrian troops. The next day on 21 January, the FSA captured Douma near Damascus capital city. The FSA also succeed controlled Homs, the third largest city in Syria.92

Colonel Riad al-Assad attempt to fight until President Bashar al-Assad overthrown. On 22 September 2012, the FSA announced that moved its commands and headquarter from Hatay Provinces of Turkey to the liberated area in Idlib governorate Syria. On 18 November 2012, the FSA took control of the one Syrian Army largest military base in Northern Syria, base 46 Aleppo. The captured of base 46 Aleppo as one of the biggest victory by the FSA since the start of Syrian revolution against President Bashar Al-Assad and claimed that 300 Syrian Armed forces had been killed and the other 60 had been captured by the FSA fighters seized large amounts of heavy weapons, tanks, and ammunition.93 On 22 November, the FSA captured the Mayadin military base in Deir ez-Zor governorate, took control of a large amount of eastern Syrian territory bordered with Iraq. In the end of 2012, the FSA controlled the large city of Syria such as Homs, Hama, and Aleppo.94 Meanwhile, on 7 December 2012, Colonel al-Assad replaced by General Salim Idriss as the new leader of the FSA. Colonel Riad al-Assad replaced due to was not present the meeting in Antalya, Turkey with security officials from the United States, the United Kingdom, and France.95

92 Ibid. 93 Jazeera, A. (2012, November). Rebels capture key Syrian military base. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/video/middleeast/2012/11/20121119155411532198.html

94 Syria Uprising Map: March 2013. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.polgeonow.com/2013/03/syria-uprising-map-march-2013-9.html 95 Syria Countrywide Conflict Report No.5,1-35. (february 2015). Retrieved from https://www.cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/peace/conflict_resolution/syria- conflict/nationwideupdate-feb-28-2015.pdf.

Figure 2.2. The FSA Controlled Territory in 2011-2013 Source: https://exposingtheinvisible.org/resources/thomasvanlinge

However, 2013 was the rise of the Islamic group in Syria. In April – May 2013, the FSA was losing its fighters to Islamist organization Front al-Nusra which emerged as the best equipped, more financed, and motivated to bring down Bashar al-Assad government. The FSA was loss 3.000 fighters in April 2013 gone to Front al-Nusra due to Islamist doctrine attracts the FSA fighters and the FSA lacks weapon and ammunition at that time.96 The growth of Front al-Nusra in mid-2013 disillusioned thousands of FSA fighters who felt that their own revolution against the government has been stolen from them.

96 Mahmood, M., & Black, I. (2013, May 08). Free Syrian Army rebels defect to Islamist group Jabhat al-Nusra. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/may/08/free-syrian- army-rebels-defect-islamist-group

There is an irreconcilable difference exist between the aims of FSA and those of Islamist organization in Syria against President Bashar Al-Assad, which the Islamist organization aims to seize the Syrian territory expand the Islamic States ideology. The emergence of ISIS in 2014 as the beginning of the end for the FSA, due to the paralysis within the FSA military command since the first 2014, lack ammunitions until Chief of Staff General Salim Idriss replaced by Abdul-Ilah al-Bashir. Some of the FSA territory taken by ISIS, Idlib governorate overthrew by ISIS from the FSA in October 2014 and the FSA has no longer effectively exist.97

Figure 2.3. The FSA Decline, Rise of ISIS Source: http://www.newsweek.com/dutch-high-school-student-maps-isiss-terrifying-advance-syria- and-iraq-342604

97 Galka, M. (2015, December). Maps That Explain the Middle East. Retrieved from https://www.huffingtonpost.com/max-galka/7-maps-that-explain-the-m_b_8766040.html

II.2.2. The Emergence of ISIS Syria is a multiethnic and multi-religious state with a majority of Sunni Islam. The political power of Syria states led by Ba’ath party which Shia Islam Alawite who minority in Syria states. The Sunni Islam majority group took revenge against Shia Alawite who took every benefit of the states which controlled the military, politics, and economic sector.98 However in Ba’ath party, military, politics, and economy become the pillars of power Assad family and Sunni Islam eliminated in Syria. Shia Alawite concerned about Sunni Islam nationalism, Syria government decided to eliminated Sunni Islam nationalism.

Shia Muslim growth in Syria with 1,5 million adherents. During the beginning of Syria civil war, 1.062 people killed by the Syrian government, which those 1.062 people are included Sunni Islam who the majority people in Syria. The Syria civil war raises several Islamist factions who fought Syrian government calling for President Bashar Al-Assad removal were violently suppressed.99 The Syria civil war grew out of Islamic States of Iraq and Syria declared in 2014 consist of Sunni Islam who aims bring down President Bashar Al-Assad and rule the world with Khilafah ideology. The presence of Islamic States affected the spirit of Jihad of Syrian civilian majority of Sunni Islam to bring down the dictatorial government which not the same ideology with their leader.

II.2.2.1. The Establishment of Islamic States of Iraq and Syria Firstly, Islamic group established Jama’at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in 1999 and joint with Al-Qaeda in 2004. The group involved in rebellion after west intervention on Iraq in 2003. The group declared the founder of Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) on 13 October 2006 led by Omar al-Baghdadi replaced previous leader al-Zarqawi died by the United States. However, Omar al-Baghdadi death in 2010 and replaced by current leader Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi. Since the Syria uprising on March 2011, Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi delegated the fighters to Syria in August 2011, the fighters called as

98 Manfreda, P. (n.d.). Is the Conflict in Syria a Religious War? Retrieved from https://www.thoughtco.com/religion-and-conflict-in-syria-2353551

99 Brady, E. (2016). The Syrian Conflict: Religion Conflict & Terrorism. Retrieved from https://thestandrewseconomist.com/2016/02/15/the-syrian-conflict-religion-conflict-terrorism/.

Front al-Nusra and controlled Sunni occupied areas in Ar-Raqqah governance, Idlib, Deir ez Zor, and Aleppo.100 Front al-Nusra is part of Al-Qaeda fought in Syria against Bashar Al-Assad and formed on 23 January 2012. Front al-Nusra founded by Abu Muhammad al-Jaulani at that time was part of Islamic States of Iraq (ISI) under Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi. In April 2013, al-Baghdadi declared announced the unification Islamic States of Iraq with Front al-Nusra became Islamic States of Iraq and Syam also known as Islamic States of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). However, the leader of Al- Qaeda Ayman al-Zawahiri and the leader of Front al-Nusra Abu Mohammad al- Julani denied the unification. The denial of unification became the struggle of power in Syria along eight months until early 2014. The Al-Qaeda disconnected the relations with Islamic States of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). On 3 February 2014, ISIS denied the negotiation and Front al-Nusra joint with Al-Qaeda. 101

On 29 June 2014, ISIS declared the organization as the Caliphate of the world also known as Khilafah of the world. ISIS is an organization fundamental of Sunni Islam. During the establishment, the member of ISIS announced through voice record that their leader Al-Baghdadi will the leader of Muslim worldwide. Al-Baghdadi made an invitation through propaganda in social media for all Muslim in the world to join ISIS and involve in establishing a world with Muslim Khilafah. In July 2014, according to Syrian Observatory for Human rights, ISIS recruited more than 6.300 people. ISIS has over 15.000 militia come from 80 countries on November 2014.102 ISIS also has 3 figures, Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi as the leader of ISIS, Abu Oemar al- Shisani as military commander of ISIS, and Abu Mohammad al-Adhani as spokesman of ISIS.

100 What is 'Islamic State'? (2015, December 02). Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world- middle-east-29052144 101 Ibid. 102 ISIS recruits at record pace in Syria: Observatory. (2014). Retrieved from http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Aug-20/267780-isis-recruits-at-record-pace- in-syria-observatory.ashx

II.2.2.2. The Threat of ISIS Ideology ISIS was known as ad-Dawlah al-Islamiyah fi’l-Iraq wa-sy-Syam or called Daesh in the Arab language. ISIS has 4 ideology, which Worldwide Khilafah, Salafist Jihadism, Wahhabism and Anti Shi’ism (Anti Shia).103 The world Khalifah is the concept of single world government under Islamic law led by Abu Bakar al- Baghdadi, which all the countries and Muslim people must be united in the world Khalifah and conquer the western world. Salafist Jihadism is rooted from Salafi word, Salafist is one of the method in Islam that teaches and implement Sharia law purely without any addition and subtraction based on Sharia law that existed in the generation of Prophet Muhammad and the companions and after them. Salafist Jihadism is a movement of returning to what adherents believe to be true Sunni Islam, and as Muslim people, establishing uncompromised Sharia law is a core value and goal of Jihadist. ISIS is part of global Jihadism who have a priority that fighting in non-Muslim countries or non-Sunni Muslim majority countries is part of purification of Muslims. Then, Wahhabism is an ideology and root of ultraconservative, hard-line of Islam and is part of certain orientation in Salafism which aims to back to the true teaching of Islam based on Qur’an, Hadith, and clean of all impurities such as practice that they consider as syirik104, Salafist and Wahhabist demands enforcement of Sharia Islamic law. Thus, Anti Shiasism is prejudice or hatred toward Shia Islam because of their religious history and heritage which that history divided Islam into two sects Sunni and Shia in the past.105

103 Bunzel, C. (march 2015). From Paper State to Caliphate: The Ideology of the Islamic State. The Islamic World,1-48. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/The- ideology-of-the-Islamic-State.pdf. 104 Ibid. P 7

105 Ibid. P 14

ISIS claimed the organization as Islamic states with world Khalifah as main ideology. As world Khalifah, ISIS claim controls the religion, politics, and military over Muslim people around the world. ISIS used extreme Muslim interpretation, support religious violence, and consider Muslim or other people who disagree with its interpretation called as Kafir or apostate (murtad).106 The perception of the Kafir is people who do not have the same creed with them. Then, disagree with them obviously called as kafir, and kafir people halal to be killed by them as labeled as jihad action. The Jihad movement derived from tauhid or monotheism perspective which proposing takfir. Takfir is a term for a Muslim who accuses other Muslim. Takfir also means the accusation derived from the word kafir (unfaith people) mentioned as the people who claim as Muslim who doubt his faith.107 However, ISIS was criticized and controversial by Islamist around the world due to the radical method and adopted a deviant of Islam teaching.108

The idea of ISIS logo is represented by the black flag symbolism that used by Prophet Muhammad during the fighting. The flag features the emblem of Prophet Muhammad in a white circle with the inscription “There is no god but God”, that symbol refers to ISIS believe that the organization will restore the glory of the ancient Khalifah Islam along with politics and religion. With the ISIS ideology, ISIS explained their goals of the organization in the Dabiq magazine, Dabiq magazine is an online magazine established by ISIS in July 2014 for propaganda and people recruitment. In the Dabiq Magazine 5th edition 21 November 2014, stated the goal of the organization that :

106 Ibid. P 38

107 Ibid. P 39

108 Landau-Tasseron, E. (2015, November). Delegitimizing ISIS On Islamic Grounds: Criticism Of Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi By Muslim Scholars. Retrieved from https://www.memri.org/reports/delegitimizing-isis-islamic-grounds-criticism-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi- muslim-scholars

“Extending the power and dominate the world until his flags which blessed by Allah flying over the eastern and western earth, sowing the seeds of the truth and Islamic justice throughout the world, ending the tyranny, and ending the United States hegemony”.109

By the khalifah ideology, ISIS aims to rule the world and all who do not believe in the interpretation of the ISIS version of Qur’an will be killed, the ISIS members also believe that all religions that agree with the democracy should be disappear.110

In its development to enforce Sharia Islamic law and the Islamic States realization, ISIS carried out repressive actions by intimidation, assault, arson citizen settlement, and bombing. ISIS brutally trying to get rid of non-Sunni societies and elites including the other religion. Until early 2016, 470 thousand people include women and children were the victims of ISIS action. The leader al-Baghdadi stated that :

“This war is yours, change the night of Kafir people into the day and spill their blood into streams”.111

Moreover, ISIS criticized by the international organization such as United Nations due to their radical perspective. On 24 September 2014, Secretary-General of United Nations Ban Ki-Moon stated that :

“As has been said by Islamic religious leaders around the world, ISIS organization have nothing to do with Islam, and they clearly not a country. They are better called Non-state Non-Muslim”.112

109 Joscelyn, T. (2015, September). Counter-terrorism efforts in Syria: A winning strategy? Retrieved from https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/09/us-counterterrorism-efforts-in-syria-a- winning-strategy.php 110 Ibid. 111 Ibid. 112 Secretary-Generals remarks to Security Council High-Level Summit on Foreign Terrorist Fighters Secretary-General. (2014, September). Retrieved from https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2014-09-24/secretary-generals-remarks-security- council-high-level-summit

In addition, ISIS also planted a bomb in the ancient city of Palmyra, a city with a population of 50.000 people. Palmyra counted as UNESCO world heritage site because it is the most extensive and best preserved ancient Roman ruins in the world. ISIS planted a bomb in Palmyra due to that place referred to the ancient culture of Christians.113 ISIS aims to eradicate the identity of other religion besides Islam, they knew that if the identity does not exist, it loses the memory, also it loses the history. That attempt was to sanctify of Kafir people, used heavy weaponry destroyed Temple of Bel and the other archeological sites in August 2015. The Director-General of UNESCO, Irina Bokova consider that ISIS act is a war crime.

II.2.2.3. ISIS Foreign Fighters ISIS foreign fighters emerged because of ISIS members expertise in playing social media propaganda for people recruitment. The Judgement day become propaganda of ISIS. The Judgement day is a major selling point for foreign fighters who want to visit places that are forecasted to be the last battleground of mankind. The civil war raged in Iraq and Syria reinforced the prediction of the Judgement day.114 Nowadays, the Judgement day is the reason for the more rational recruitment of foreign fighters by ISIS. The propaganda about the Judgement day also was published in Dabiq magazine in English. The name of Dabiq is taken from the name of Dabiq city in Northern Syria that mentioned in Hadith about the Judgement day. ISIS often used social media especially Twitter to spread its messages by a tagged campaign, posting with popular tags, and utilized the other software applications that allow its propagation spread automatically through the proponent’s account.115 However, in August 2014 Twitter closed every account that associated with ISIS to eliminated the propaganda.

113 Islamic State seeking to 'delete' entire cultures, UNESCO chief warns in Iraq. (2014). Retrieved from https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2014/1108/Islamic-State-seeking-to-delete- entire-cultures-UNESCO-chief-warns-in-Iraq

114 Wood, G. (2016, April). What ISIS Really Wants. Retrieved from https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/ 115 Ingraham, N. (n.d.). ISIS created its own social network to spread propaganda. Retrieved from https://www.engadget.com/2017/05/04/isis-created-its-own-social-network-to-spread-propaganda/

Firstly, ISIS made a rapid military growth since early 2014 in Nothern Syria and took controlled of that area. ISIS was affiliated with Al-Qaeda until early 2014 that involved 7.000 fighters in Syria include non-Syrian fighters. On November 2014, ISIS has 15.000 foreign fighters militia come from 80 countries. In February 2015, ISIS claimed has significantly increase of foreign fighters over 20.000-30.000 include 3.400 people from western countries. In December 2014, the total of ISIS members predicted consist of 200.000 people.116 Foreign fighters have fought in the Syria conflict for Syria opposition and ISIS against the Syrian government. For Sunni Islam itself, estimated total number of foreign Sunni fighters who fought in the Syrian conflict range from 5.000 over 10.000. The phenomenon cause concerns in home states of foreign fighters. The reason influx of foreign fighters in Syria that the government took no step to terminate the inflow of foreign fighters. In mid-2012, 1.400 Sunni fighters came from Iraq entered Syria and the numbers continued to increase. The Turkish border was most Jihadist entered Syria. In July 2013, foreign fighters continued to come to Syria against Bashar Al-Assad and clash with the moderate rebel group. This followed by Bashar Al-Assad signed the law that would punish anyone who enter Syria illegally with jail and a fine, and the fine would be between 5 million and 10 million Syrian pounds.117 However, foreign fighters continued to increase along years 2014 and 2015 as ISIS militia.

The foreign fighters involved women and children who traveled to Syria and Iraq to join Islamic State. The six years old children were recruited or abducted and sent to military and religious training camp. They are practiced decapitating the puppets and doctrines about the ISIS religious outlook. Children were used as a human shield at the frontline and source of blood transfusions for the ISIS militia. ISIS focused on how to prepare the children for future combat. According to foreign policy magazine, state that children under 15 years old are sent to Sharia camp to study about Islam,

116 UN Report On 15,000 Foreigners Joining ISIS Fighters In Syria And Iraq Will Shock You. (2014). Retrieved from https://web.archive.org/web/20141110162633/http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/571503/20141103/isis- un-report-haaretz-caliphate-security-council.htm

117 Syria: Anyone Who Enters Country Illegally Will Be Jailed, Fined. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://archive.almanar.com.lb/english/article.php?id=99029

49 meanwhile children over 16 years old are sent to military training camp.118 Children also used as propaganda material which the children hold the ISIS flag and posted a photo on social media.

In addition, according to World Bank study regarding foreign fighters state that ISIS foreign fighters most of well educated, 69% has secondary level education and study at the university, only 15% people left school before high school and less than 2% are illiterate. The foreign fighters are not driven by poverty and low education, however its cause by the influence of ISIS propaganda to the world.119

According to the Soufan group, 7 December 2015 reported the largest number of foreign fighters were Tunisian 6.000, Saudi Arabia 2.500, Russia 2.400, Turkey 2.100, and Jordan were 2.000 foreign fighters. The Soufan group also reported the top listed of the largest number of foreign fighters by region that estimated 8.240 from the Middle East, 8.000 from North Africa (The Maghreb), 5.000 from Western Europe, which 3.700 out of 5.000 came from France, Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. 120

Figure 2.4. Foreign Fighters by Nationalities

118 Brannen, K. (2014). Children of the Caliphate. Retrieved from http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/10/24/children-of-the-caliphate/

119 Mohdin, A. (2016, October). ISIL's foreign fighters are surprisingly well-educated, according to the World Bank. Retrieved from https://qz.com/802276/the-foreign-fighters-of-isisislamic-state-are- surprisingly-well-educated-according-to-the-world-bank/

120 Mohdin, A. (2015, December 08). Foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria come from 86 countries-and their numbers have doubled. Retrieved from https://qz.com/568503/foreign-fighters-in-iraq-and- syria-come-from-86-countries-and-their-numbers-have-doubled/

Figure 2.5. Foreign Fighters by Region

II.2.2.4. Syria Territorial Claim by ISIS The ISIS territory was from 2014 – 2017 in Iraq and Syria which the organization controlled significant of urban, rural, and dessert territory. Since the began of Syrian civil war in March 2011, ISI under al-Baghdadi leadership delegated the fighters to Syria and controlled Sunni Islam majority area which are Ar-Raqqah governate, Idlib, Deir ez-Zor, and Aleppo. In Ar-Raqqa, after rebel forces drove out Assad armed forces, ISIS infiltrated the city also controlled the city. On September 2014, The Wall Street Journal predicted 8 million people of Iraq and Syria living in ISIS territory. Ar-Raqqah, a city in Northern Syria with total area 1.962 km2, officially become the capital of ISIS and totally controlled since September 2014.121 Ar- Raqqah is the de facto capital as well as a simulation site of the ISIS government. ISIS has been rebuilding the structure of modern government for less than one year. Former Assad government in Ar-Raqqah official binding to ISIS remain in the current position. Government agencies that are functioned and reorganized provide services to Sunni community. However, police and military institution in Ar-Raqqah governorate replaced by ISIS fighters.

121 Remnick, D. (2017). Telling the Truth About ISIS and Raqqa. Retrieved from https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/telling-the-truth-about-isis-and-raqqa

In its development to realize the Islamic State since 29 June 2014, ISIS has established schools, administrated the judiciary, provided the public transportation and public facility, build the roads, and electricity management.122 ISIS controlled the area based on Sharia law include in the economic sector, also implemented Sharia law for women which are obligate to wearing a hijab and niqab. ISIS received homes that belonged to non-Sunni residents who evacuated from the city. ISIS provides welfare service, price controls, and taxes for the upper class, ISIS also implement social services program, religious sermons, and da’wah for local people. ISIS replaced the previous corrupt government with good governance and ISIS has imposed strict Sharia law over controlled land such as cut the hands of the thieves and stoning for adulterers.123

Figure 2.6. ISIS Territory in 2014 Source: http://www.globalghana.net/islamic-state-isis-who-are-they-what-do-they-want/

122 Birke, S. (n.d.). How ISIS Rules. Retrieved from http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2015/02/05/how-isis-rules/

123 Ibid.

ISIS expanded into claimed nine Syrian provinces covering most of the countries and largely along existing Syrian provincial boundaries which are Al-Hasakah, Deir ez- Zor, Ar-Raqqa, Homs, Aleppo, Idlib, Rif Dimashq (Damascus), and Latakia governorate. Later, ISIS create new provinces of al-Furat, which one is Dijla or known as Tigris bordered with Iraq and Turkey. 124 As explained earlier, ISIS controlled a third of Syrian territory. It established itself as one of the dominant force of Syrian opposition after defeated Front al-Nusra in Deir ez-Zor governate and claiming control over most Syrian oil and gas production.125

According to Syrian Observatory for Human rights, on July 2014 ISIS took control of the Shaer oil field killed 90 Pro-government forces and 270 government fighters were missing. On 25 July, ISIS took control Division 17 base near of ar-Raqqa. Division 17 is Syrian Army who responsible for north-eastern Syria. On 7 August, ISIS took the Brigade 93 base in ar-Raqqa used weapons captured from Iraq. Brigade 93 is Syrian government military installation in Eastern Syria. On 13 August, ISIS took control of Dabiq village nearby Aleppo from rebels.126 Afterward, ISIS in ar- Raqqa has launched a siege on Tabqa airbase, which the last military of Syrian Armed forces in ar-Raqqa, also ISIS attacked Kuwaires airbase in Aleppo.

On 16 August, ISIS killed 22 peoples in Daara village by a car bombed in front of Mosque. At the same time, ISIS seized the village of Beden in Aleppo governorate from rebels. Syrian observation for Human rights also reported that on 17 August, ISIS killed 700 people in Deir ez-Zor to took control of oil resource and Deir ez-Zor governorate.

124 BARRETT, R. (n.d.). The Islamic State. The Soufan Group: The Islamic State. Retrieved from http://soufangroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/TSG-The-Islamic-State-Nov14.pdf

125 Syria: Mapping the conflict. (2015, July). Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world- middle-east-22798391

126 Jihadists capture key base from Syrian army. (2014, August). Retrieved from http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Aug-08/266471-jihadists-capture-key-base- from-syrian-army.ashx

Meanwhile on 26 August, the Syrian Air forces carried out airstrikes against ISIS in the Deir ez-Zor governorate, that was the first time the Syrian Armed forces attacked them in the Deir ez-Zor as the Syrian Armed forces pulled out of ar-Raqqa and shifted to Deir ez-Zor for retaking its oil and gas resources as well as strategy to split ISIS territory.127 ISIS continued to defend its territory and control the other territory in order to realize the Islamic state. Therefore, there are the similarities also differences between the FSA and ISIS as Syrian government opposition.

Free Syrian Army (FSA) Islamic States of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) Similarities Aims to bring down the Assad Aims to bring down the Assad Government Government

Hold the Syrian territory Hold the Syrian territory

Sunni Islam adherent group Sunni Islam adhrent group

Differences FSA aims to enforce democracy ISIS aims to build Syria with in Syria Khalifah ideology and Sharia Law

FSA only threaten the internal ISIS threaten external environment of Syria environment by the emergence of foreign fighters

FSA is rebel group consist of ISIS is an terrorist, separated Syrian army defectors from Al-Qaeda and al-Nusra FSA backed by the United States ISIS is an independent and allies use guerilla tactics fundamental organization of style Islam and use former Al- Qaeda armaments

Figure 2.7 The Similarities and Differences of the FSA & ISIS

127 Naharnet Newsdesk. (2014, August). IS Killed More than 700 Syria Tribe Members in 2 Weeks. Retrieved from http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/143590-is-killed-more-than-700-syria-tribe- members-in-2-weeks

CHAPTER III

THE OVERVIEW RUSSIA FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD SYRIA

III.1. THE NATIONAL INTEREST OF RUSSIA IN SYRIA III.1.1. Political Aspects of National Interest Russia has supported the Syrian government since the beginning of the Syria conflict in 2011 by politically and military aid and direct involvement since 30 September 2015. The direct involvement of Russia authorized by the Federation Council, Russia upper of Parliament to allow the Russia President use Armed forces in Syria. Russia acknowledged that Armed strikes targeted to ISIS and also moderate rebel group. According to the Syrian government in July 2015, the Syrian President Bashar Al- Assad made a formal request to Russia for deploy airstrikes combating international terrorism after the major setbacks suffered by Syrian Armed forces and significant part of Syria territory claimed by ISIS in the first 2015.128 Thus, the political agreement was reached between Russia and Syria to intensify the Russian involvement. The Russia direct involvement in Syria also as the Russian foreign policy implementation to achieve national interest in Syria by political, economic, and forces. The national interest is the highest assumption by the government as a representation of the foreign policy.129 The Russia direct involvement in Syria as foreign policy implementation marked the first time of Russia since the end of the Cold War that entered armed conflict outside the borders of the former Soviet Union.

128 Walker, S. (2015, September). Russian parliament grants Vladimir Putin right to deploy military in Syria. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/30/russian-parliament-grants- vladimir-putin-right-to-deploy-military-in-syria

129 Racke, W. (2016, December). A Realist Approach to Russia – Arc Digital. Retrieved from https://arcdigital.media/a-realist-approach-to-russia-58c0d536cc76

In spite of the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the Soviet Union bequeath a perception that Russia is a Great Power. The Great Power is the state seek to survive by increasing the power to achieve security. The greater of power, the more likely the states survive. The states do not count how much power that wants to have, due to the states tend to always increase the power to reach its national interest and expand its hegemony to all of the regions.130 However, the ambition to restore the Great Power reminds Russia that power is not reflected by the military and economic power only, its how the Russia political influence affects the other states in the international relations, and Vladimir Putin stated that:

“Promoting the interest of the Russian Federation as a Great Power and one of the most influential centers in the modern world by ensuring the country security, preserving and strengthening its sovereignty and territorial integrity and its strong and authoritative position in the world community (in order to promote) the growth of its political, economic, intellectual, and spiritual potential”.131

The perception as Great Power becomes a point of view of the Russia government elite toward the international system. The realization of Russia national interest is based on Great Power identity of Soviet Union in the past, which expect to restore the glory of Soviet Union in nowadays that becomes Russia national interest by President Vladimir Putin. In the realization of national interest, Vladimir Putin actively in the international organization and international conflict settlement, due to aims create the multipolar international system.132 Participation in all forums contributes to Russia as Great Power with interest all over the world. President Vladimir Putin considers the importance of establishing the multipolar international system which Russia as the major state could lead the global order. President Vladimir Putin considers that by the multipolar system and status as Great Power Russia could rule the world.

130 Ibid. 131 THE FOREIGN POLICY CONCEPT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/4116 132 Putin's Multipolar World and What it Means for U.S. Strategy. (2017). Retrieved from https://www.ausa.org/publications/putins-multipolar-world

The Russia television conduct a talk show with the President called Direct Line with Vladimir Putin, Direct Line with Vladimir Putin is annual special Television Program and a Q&A show broadcasted by Russia-1 Television and Russia radio stations and its supported by Kremlin Press Secretary. During the program, Russian citizens asked questions to Vladimir Putin by telephone which asked about Russian political interest in Syria.133 President Vladimir Putin responded the questions and stated that:

“We plan to build a peaceful political process involving all parties to the conflict. Our short-term goal is to enhance the Syrian Army fighting capacity and retreat to our Khmeimim and Tartus base. If the need arises to, say, use warplanes, we could support them in their fight against terrorist organizations”.134

In that statement, Vladimir Putin expects that the political process which cooperations between Syrian government and Russia able to pave the road into a peace settlement. Russia and Syria have moments in the history of bilateral cooperations and interacted closely since President Hafez Al-Assad Presidential terms.135 Moreover, Vladimir Putin aims to resolve the conflict with peace settlement with his role in the United Nations supported legitimate leader Bashar Al-Assad.

Since the UNSC released draft resolution S/2011/612 for Syrian conflict toward the Syrian government, Russia vetoed. The draft resolution was economic and political sanction toward the Syrian government, Russia vetoed due to protect Bashar Al- Assad as well as to achieve its national interest in Syria. The political interest of Russia also is to against the United States hegemony in all of the region. The current international system is Unipolar, that the United States as single superpower did unilateral steps to intervene the Syria conflict, expand its hegemony and influence. The United States supported the oppositions, while Russia supported the President Bashar Al-Assad as a legitimate leader. The Russia interest aims to win the Syrian conflict through conflict resolution that supports Bashar Al-Assad. Through win the

133 Direct Line with Vladimir Putin. (2017, June). Retrieved from http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54790 134 Ibid. 135 Ibid.

57 war, Russia can dominate Syria as well as reject the western influence in the Middle East region. Syria has a strategic geographic position for Russia, its location in the Middle East and political proximity to Russia are considering capable to eliminate the United States power that as a threat.136 Moreover, the Russia interest also supports President Bashar Al-Assad to liberate Syria from rebels and Islamic states. By the reject the western influence, Russia aims to create a multipolar international system in every state conflict and able to campaigning peace in the world.

III.1.2. Economic Aspects of National Interest The Russia intervention in Syria conflict is to achieve economic well being of national interest. The economic well being is a fundamental and important thing that should be maintained by the state. Russia has an important role toward Syria in economic which has the significant arms trade relations. In addition to arms trade cooperation, Russia and Syria establish cooperation in oil and gas industry. The Russia intervention in the Syria conflict is an act of maintaining the economic assets that are the sources of the Russian economic revenue.137 Russia intervention in Syria also is to defend the Russia economic resources in Syria due to Russia has been cooperating with Syria since a long time ago. Therefore, Russia does not want if the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad bring down, and the political turmoil can disrupt the economic interest of Russia in Syria.

136 Lo, B. (n.d.). Russia and the multipolar myth. Retrieved from http://www.cer.eu/insights/russia- and-multipolar-myth

137 Damla, B. (2017). Russia to take a quarter of Syria's oil revenue. Retrieved from https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/russia-to-take-a-quarter-of-syrias-oil-revenue-2740613

Figure 3.1. Oil and Gas Pipelines Source: http://www.ibtimes.com/us-airstrikes-syria-target-lucrative-isis-oil-operations-1694658

The Russia political map is in the interest of securing the oil route from the Middle East to Asia and Europe. Russia is the fifth largest oil-consuming country with the consumption of 3.2 million barrels per day.138 Syria is the oil strategic route from the Middle East region to Europe and Asia. In addition to being one of the world oil exporters, Syria has become the main oil line in the Middle East region. The oil and gas lines in Syria has a high economic value for the western countries and Russia that the United States with allies and Russia involved in Syria conflict. Syria also is a strategic point of the oil and gas lines, which the oil and gas lines to Turkey and Europe streaming through Northern Syria, the oil and gas lines to Egypt and North Africa region streaming through Southern Syria, also the route of oil to Iran streaming in Syria.139

138 Russian oil market. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.interfoxresources.se/en/market- overview/russian-oil-market/

139 The Energy Consulting Group. (2015, June). Retrieved from http://energy- cg.com/MiddleEast/Syria/Syria Oil and Gas Overview.html

In addition, on July 2011, Iran – Iraq – Syria signed a memorandum in Bushrer Province, Iran, regarding the new construction of a new gas pipelines streaming along 5.600 Km from South Pars/North Dome – Gas condensate field near of Asaluyeh city, Iran toward Europe to supply European customers. The new gas pipelines have maximum discharge 110 million cubic meters of natural gas per day with cost about US$ 10 Billion.140 The project of a new gas pipeline called as Islamic gas pipelines, streaming from South Pars via Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, and extended to Mediterranian to European country passes through a refinery in Damascus. The project of the gas pipeline will be profitable for Syria, also profitable for Russia due to Iran, Iraq, and Syria are Russian ally in the Middle East region. The project is Syria government rationale for rejecting the Qatar-Turkey pipeline via Saudi Arabia passes through Syria to protect the Russia interest as an ally, which Rusia is Europe’s top supplier of the gas.141 Therefore, Russia – Syria government is an ally that Russia deserves to protect the economic national interest in Syria against western countries.

Since the beginning of the Syria conflict, Russia Prime Minister, Dmitry Medvedev state that Russia is conducting a military operation in Syria to protect Russia national assets and national interest. Dmitry Medvedev also stated that :

“Nothing is more important than protecting Russia overseas assets and national interest”.142

The Russia assets in Syria are oil and gas as a key long-term economic interest. The energy resources in Syria is crucial for Russia economy which a key goal is to retake control of oil and gas pipelines and gain control over Russian companies Soyuzneftegaz and Gazprom involved in production and distribution of Russian oil and gas abroad.143 In order to fulfill the rising demand in Europe, Russia depends on

140 (2011, July). Retrieved from http://www.construction.am/news/103-islamic-pipeline/

141 Ibid.

142 Allegations of Russian Troops Reflect Battle Over Syria's Future. (2015, September). Retrieved from https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/allegations-of-russian-troops-reflect-battle-over-syrias- future-49553 143 Ibid.

60 oil and gas reserves in Syria which are then resold to Europe at the higher price as Russia revenue.

Russia considers that the Syrian conflict will weaken the Syria economy, also the impact is the inhibition of oil and gas supply to Europe. Russia is oil and gas exporters to European countries, it is very important for Russia to protect the energy resources in Syria. The oil and gas contract in Syria owned by Russia, some of oil and gas Russia company such as Gazprom and Soyuzneftegaz are in Syria as well as oil refining. Russia considers if the Syria territory controlled by the rebels or the ISIS who are the major oppositions of Bashar Al-Assad, Russia assets in Syria will be controlled by the oppositions.144 Minister of Energy of Russia, Alexander Novak stated that :

“We attach great importance to restoring the Syrian economy, especially the oil and gas sectors which will certainly contribute to the normalisation of the economic and social situation in the country. Syria is a land of unlimited riches, Russia company have the moral right to develop large-scale economic projects.”145

According to that statement, Russia committed protect energy assets in Syria with intervene the Syrian conflict. Moreover, if Bashar Al-Assad falls in the hand of rebels or the ISIS, the Russia assets in the form of oil exploration in Syria would be controlled and destroyed, that could weaken the Russia economy.

III.1.3. Military Aspects of National Interest The Military interest of Russia is to protect the political and economic interest of Russia in Syria and in the Middle East region. The Russia national interest in Syria includes the military interest. Syria is the only states that provide the Russia naval base in the Middle East region after the collapsed of the Soviet Union, the naval base located in Tartus. Therefore, it is very important for Russia to assist the President Bashar Al-Assad regime, due to if Bashar Al-Assad brings down, its have an impact

144 Ibid. 145 E. (n.d.). Russia wants to help Syria relaunch oil production - ET EnergyWorld. Retrieved from https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/russia-wants-to-help-syria-relaunch- oil-production/62910348

61 on existing policy and cooperation between the Russia and Syria.146 The worst case is if the United States, rebel groups, or the ISIS dominate the Syria territory and bring down the President Bashar Al-Assad regime, it will eliminate the influence of Russia in the Middle East region.

Russia President Vladimir Putin interviewed by host Vladimir Solovyov from Russia-1 channel television on 11 October 2015 about the military operation in Syria. President Vladimir Putin spoke that the military ambition on Syria conflict to fighting with terrorist as part of the Russia foreign policy. President Vladimir Putin stated that:

“As for what we plan to do there, we are going to foster a peaceful political settlement between all the parties to the conflict. Our task in the near future is to upgrade the level and capability of the Syrian Armed forces and proceed to the facilities that we have created in Syria including Khemeimim airbase and Tartus naval base. It necessary to provide them (Syria Armed forces) with operational support in fighting terrorist groups including employing our combat aviation”.147

In the statement above, Vladimir Putin commits to active conduct military operation in Syria which is a task to stabilize the legitimate government and establish the condition that possible to look for political compromise.148 President Vladimir Putin plans is to take control the Middle East region and Mediterranian sea by utilizing the Tartus and Kheimim base permanently also to prevent the threat toward Syrian government. The Tartus naval base is remaining Russia military facility outside the Soviet Union territory. The Tartus and Khemeimim base as Russia motivation to assist President Bashar Al-Assad with maintaining the Middle East regional stability.

The role of Russia direct involvement in the Syria conflict is to eliminate the moderate rebels and international terrorism. Russia considers that terrorism is a major threat and attack directed against the state. The threat and terrorist attacks disrupt the state stability and have an impact on disrupting the state security and the national

146 Ibid. 147 Ibid p. 3 148 Ibid p. 3

62 interest.149 The Russia involvement attempt to conduct a more intense attack on rebel groups and international terrorism. Russia assists the Syrian government through increase the military power, which from the attack carried out and the number of weapons deployed against the FSA and ISIS. Russia as a major power in the world aims to create a peace through combating all form of terrorism.

Figure 3.2. Tartus Naval Base Map Source: https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/10/10/Russia-to-build-permanent- naval-base-in-Syria/6541476115524/

The Russia military interest is increasing the security in Tartus, which the Russia naval base for its vessels in the Middle East region in accordance with the agreement with the Syrian government in 2008 after Russia erased the Syria government debt since the Soviet Union era.150 Russia aims to maintain Tartus port in Western Syria to protect its national interest by increasing the power in the Middle East region and to neutralize the threat in the Syria territory. The Tartus port used by Russia to send technical assistance and logistics for the Russian navy also for vessels deployed in the Mediterranean waters. Tartus port also used for the entrance for Syrian weapons shipments. The Russian naval base in Tartus increases the power to the Russian

149 Ibid. 150 Pike, J. (n.d.). Military. Retrieved from https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/syria/tartous.htm

63 military after build Khmeimim air base for Russia air forces. If the Russian vessels and submarines equipped with Kalibr cruise missile in Tartus, it will allow Moscow to control the situation in the Middle East region and around Mediterranian area, also Russia can dominate the Middle East and Mediterranian area.151

III.2. THE CONCEPT OF RUSSIA FOREIGN POLICY BY PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN152

III.2.1. Political Instruments of Russia Foreign Policy Vladimir Putin since elected as Russia president for presidential term 2012-2018, evokes the Russia patriotism with the obsession to restoring patriotism of Russia that has been faded to make a powerful nation and remain as the Great Power.153 The Russia foreign policy by Vladimir Putin is more aggressive toward regional and international developments, which requires the Kremlin to play an active role in protecting Russia national interest. The Russia role more actively in the international organization to resolve the state conflict. Syria considered as Russia ally in the Middle East region. In the Syrian conflict, President Bashar Al-Assad asked Moscow for assistance, Russia has stood of its ally in difficult circumstances. Syria was a Soviet Union ally during the Cold War and it is very logical for Bashar Al-Assad to asked Russian assistance. The observer from the economist has argued that the Russia direct involvement in Syria is a bold challenge to the United States and allies in the Middle East region.154 The Middle East conflict tend to fluctuate and grow even more in every year. In this regard, Russia position to stand with its ally is important. The Russia decision involve in Syria was too risky, Kremlin made a bold choice for action.

151 Russian Warships in Eastern Mediterranean to Protect Russian Strike Fighters in Syria. (2015, October). Retrieved from https://news.usni.org/2015/10/05/russian-warships-in-eastern- mediterranean-to-protect-russian-strike-fighters-in-syria

152 Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation. (2013, April). Retrieved from http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/- /asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/122186

153 Gonzales, F. J. (april 2013). THE FOREIGN POLICY CONCEPT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: A COMPARATIVE STUDY. 1-22. 154 An odd way to make friends. (2015, October). Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21672295-intervention-syria-was-supposed-rebuild- relations-west-unsurprisingly-it-not

III.2.1.1. Russia Against Unipolar International System Russia under Vladimir Putin leadership actively strengthens its position in international politics as a significant actor. Russia Foreign Policy toward Syria conflict is evidence that Russia has implemented an assertive foreign policy in the international politics. The doctrine of Russia foreign policy is a new approach of Moscow to the region and the world with attention to current developments, challenges, and opportunities. The doctrine also describes the international system order desired by Russian, an order based on multipolar international system and the dominant role of United Nations as a regulator of relations of the World nations.155

Russia foreign policy is a response to the United States to equate the position between Russia and the United States as a global leader in maintaining global stability.156 Russia in the past was the Soviet Union, that one of the founders the United Nations in 1945. As a founder of the United Nations, the Soviet Union play a role significantly as superpower country in a Bipolar international system with the rival of the United States. However, the Soviet Union had collapsed in 1991 and remain the United States as the superpower with a Unipolar International system. Nowadays, Russia foreign policy by President Putin aims to create a multipolar international system against the United States domination and the realization the Great Power identity of the Soviet Union in the past. By the Multipolar system, Russia aims to create the sustainable and fair world order, rule of law in international relations, strengthening international security, international economy, environmental cooperation, and international cooperation in Human Rights.157

The one of primary mission is to maintain its position at the global level. The Russian Prime Minister, Dmitry Medvedev emphasized that Moscow does not accept the existing international system order, which is the unipolar international system because it has the potential to create and instability. Therefore, the international system should be changed into a multipolar international system. According to

155 Basulto, D. (2015, September 29). The 10 most important lines from Vladimir Putin's UN speech, ranked. Retrieved from https://medium.com/@dominicbasulto/the-10-most-important-lines-from- vladimir-putin-s-un-speech-ranked-129fbb777479

156 Ibid. 157 Ibid.

Russia, a multipolar international system which the dominant role of the United Nations that organize the relations of all the states should be upheld. Russia considers the importance of multipolar international system which major countries play a role in the global order and major countries have the right to achieve their interest as long as not interfere each other in terms of the determination of the influence.158

In divisive of conflict tension, the annual 14th annual conference of the Valdai Discussion Club took place in the Sochi, Russia on October 2015 with 130 intellectuals, politicians, and diplomats. Vladimir Putin spoke at an international discussion forum in Sochi to affirmed the Russia position, role of Russia in the world and called a dialogue to solve today problems.159 President Vladimir Putin told to Russia Beyond and stated that:

“Now Russia is actively opposing Washington policy in Syria. The unipolar world does not take Russia interest into account, and Moscow will defend its position on issues that are key to it”.160

According to Vladimir Putin, Moscow has no intention of isolating itself in foreign policy despite the souring relations with the western countries over the conflict in Syria.161 Russia foreign policy by Vladimir Putin showing the assertiveness opposed the unipolar international system. In addition, Putin also stated that:

“The unipolar world order has proven unsustainable for a hegemonic world power. The unstable structure of unipolar world has proven its inability to effectively counter the threats such as regional conflicts and terrorism. 162

158 Ibid.

159 Litovkin, N., & Surkov, N. (2014, October 29). Time to establish a new world order, says Putin. Retrieved from https://www.rbth.com/international/2014/10/29/time_to_establish_a_new_world_order_says_putin_ 40973.html

160 Ibid. 161 Ibid. 162 Ibid.

The Russian Presidents, politicians, and experts have been speaking the realization of a multipolar world that will dethrone the United States hegemony and establish a fair world order.163 The Russia campaign on Syria is the proof that the multipolarity is coming. Russia seeks the creation of a multipolar international system which genuinely reflects the diversity of modern world with its delivery of interest.164 Russian President Vladimir Putin has called on the international community to establish a new world order with the aim of preventing future conflicts.

III.2.1.2. Reject The United States Influence In The Middle East Region Since serving as Russian President in 2012, Vladimir Putin foreign policy has highlighted the several important issues which are resolving the Syrian conflict, liberating Syria against West influence, maintain the territorial integrity, and form an international coalition to combat terrorism. The doctrine of Russia foreign policy indicates a new approach to overseas international issues or international conflict and new consequences in global relations. The Moscow took the direct involvement with deployed first airstrikes on 30 September 2015 fulfilled Damascus request to send troops to Syria. The Russia direct involvement was beyond the Western estimation and has changed the balance of power which beneficial for the Syrian government and Syrian government allies.165 The Russia foreign policy also affirms that Russia will continue to support a political solution to end the conflict in Middle East region especially Syria without foreign intervention also supports the idea of turning the Middle East into a peace zone.

One of the main focuses of the doctrine of Russia foreign policy is to against the western threat assertively, especially the United States. Russia considers that the formation of Western alliances in Syria as a threat for the Middle East also Syrian government. Russia considers that the chaos in the Middle East region caused by the

163 How Russia sees the multipolar world. (2016, September). Retrieved from http://intersectionproject.eu/article/russia-world/how-russia-sees-multipolar-world

164 Russia and multipolarity. (2017, August). Retrieved from https://www.geopolitica.ru/en/article/russia-and-multipolarity

165 Black, I., & Luhn, A. (2015, September 22). Syria confirms receipt of Russian jets to target Isis. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/22/syria-confirms-receipt-russian-jets- isis

United States foreign policy toward the Middle East.166 The United States actions as superpower country in a unipolar international system are the main reason for the chaos in the Middle East and North Africa after the tragedy of 11 September 2001. By the reason of the United States to combat terrorism (Al-Qaeda), the United States launched attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq. The attacks have failed to terminate the terrorist, and further destabilizing the Middle East and increase the terrorism with the emergence of a new terrorist organization such as ISIS and Front al-Nusra and these terrorist groups massacred thousands of people.167

In the discussion forum in Sochi, Russia, President Vladimir Putin also opposed the United States action in the Middle East, called about multipolarity order and stated that:

“Our Western partners became convinced of the justness of their case and declared themselves the victors of the cold war. Overconfidence invariably leads the mistakes. The outcome was unfortunate, two and a half decades gone to waste, a lot of missed opportunities and a heavy burden of mutual distrust. The global imbalance has only intensified as a result”.168

President Vladimir Putin considers that the western influence in the Middle East region undermines the regional and global stability. The Russia foreign policy stated that the western countries attempt is to maintain its position, including imposing their views on global trends and policies to overcome other states have exacerbated the instability in international relations and increased the tension at regional and international levels.169 The Russia Ministry of Foreign Affairs also stated that the United States attempt in the Syria conflict was a military aggression toward the Syrian government as it did toward Iraq.170 Moreover, Russia defined the goal in

166 Putin's 2015 UN speech on 'multipolar world' coming to fruition. (2016, November). Retrieved from https://www.rt.com/op-ed/367568-putins-un-speech-multipolar-world/

167 Ibid. 168 Meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club. (2017, October). Retrieved from http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55882 169 Ibid p.13 170 Ibid.

Syria as stabilizing the legitimate power in Syria and creating the conditions for a political compromise.

The Syria conflict grows due to the emergence of moderate rebel supported by the western countries aims to bring down the legitimate leader of Syria. On 11 October 2015, President Vladimir Putin interview by Russia-1 television program with host Vladimir Solovyov regarding the Russian foreign policy fighting terrorism.171 President Vladimir Putin stated that:

“I do not understand some of our colleagues in Europe and the United States though when they say they are fighting terrorism, but we see no real results. What is more, it is a well-known fact that the Americans have shut down the program to train the Free Syrian Army”172

In Syria conflict, the United States and allies did military intervention against the Syrian government. The United States and allies supported with arms deliveries to moderate rebels the FSA. In 2012, the CIA involved in a covert operation to provide arms, non-lethal aid, intelligence and military training to the FSA. Then, President Vladimir Putin warned the United States and allies that the military intervention with supported the oppositions was not the answer to conflict resolution, that action will increase the chaos in Syria.173 President Vladimir Putin also stated that the intervention of western military into Syria to combat Assad government forces is not a good action, due to the fallen victims will be more increase and more destructive the Syrian environment. The Assad government will survive and Russia believes that the western intervention for humanity in Syria conflict is misguided, due to the

171 Sinelschikova, Y., & R. (2015, October). Vladimir Putin on terrorism, Syria and Russia's foreign policy. Retrieved from https://www.rbth.com/politics/2015/10/12/vladimir_putin_on_terrorism_syria_and_russias_foreign_ policy_50013.html

172 Ibid.

173 Foster, P. (2013, September). Vladimir Putin warns America to obey international law over Syria. Retrieved from https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10305483/Vladimir- Putin-warns-America-to-obey-international-law-over-Syria.html

69 western action for humanity in the Syria conflict is to achieve its interest and expand the western influence.174

III.2.2. Economic Instruments of Russia Foreign Policy Since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the political and economic influence of the Soviet Union in the world has been faded. Therefore, protect its allies that have built a relationship since Soviet era is a valuable action to defend by Russia, also Russia protects the sovereignty, maintain the relations with cooperation with Syria. Since the instability in Syria began in 2011, Russia provides military and economic aid to Syria to faced an armed militia and the other government oppositions. Russia develops the production of armaments to develop its economy. Nowadays, Russia becomes one of the largest arms producers in the world. The motivation of President Vladimir Putin in Syria with campaigning peace cannot be separated from economic factor, which the Russia intervention caused by the need an oil from Middle East region in order to finance the state budget, fulfill the military needs, also increase the level of arms sales to Syria government.175

III.2.2.1 Increase Arm Sales The close relations between Russia and Syria occurred more than four decades since the Cold War after the Soviet Union assisted Hafez Al-Assad took a power in a coup in 1970. Hafez Al-Assad, Bashar Al-Assad father had joined jet fighter exercise in the Soviet Union and first official government of Syria visited Moscow signed a million dollar arms deal with Russia.176 Since Bashar Al-Assad led Syria, Russia became the biggest supplier of arms to Syria and got permission to build the naval base in Tartus. Since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Russia was more at war in its territory and its former Soviet countries. Since President Vladimir Putin, Russia began its operation outside the border of former Soviet countries. The operation of

174 Ibid. 175 Russian resolve: Why Syria matters to Putin. (2017). Retrieved from https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/russian-resolve-why-syria-matters-to- putin/article34643406/

176 Novosti, R. (2017, January 22). Russia, Syria Agreed Upon Naval Base in Tartous. Retrieved from http://mil.today/2017/Syria17/

Russia in Syria is to show off new weapon technology with support the old Soviet allies.177

Increase the number of Arms exports becomes the one of Russia national economic interest in Syria. Since Soviet Union era, Syria is one of the Soviet allies. Syria is one of the biggest Rusian arms importers, and Russia supported President Bashar Al- Assad through Arms supply against the rebel groups and the terrorist. President Vladimir Putin was broadcast live by Rossiya-1 channel television, which the Russian citizens asked about what is the prospects for Russian Armed Forces operation in Syria.178 President Vladimir Putin stated that:

“There are several aspects what have our Armed forces gained from the operation in Syria. First, this is of great value for our defence industrial sector. The use of newest weapon system has made it possible for us to understand how they work on the battlefield and improve the quality of these advanced weapon systems. Our Armed forces in combat conditions with the newest weapon are precious. We saw how they perform on the battlefield”.179

According to that statement, Russia shipped arms to Syrian government since the beginning of Syria conflict in 2011, the military-economic aid to Syrian government capable to combat against rebel groups and ISIS in the battlefield. Russia exports the modern armaments to Syrian government including anti-tank, anti air-missile system, ballistic missile, Yak-130 light fighter aircraft, and Amur-class submarines. Preventive action by Russia is to prevent the loss of Russian ally that purchases the Russian Arms, also become Vladimir Putin motivation to assist the President Bashar Al-Assad.180 The Arms exports are to support Russian national interest by strengthening stability and maintaining the security of the Middle East region.

177 Lister, T. (2015, October). Russia presses 'accelerate' pedal in Syria. Retrieved from https://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/15/middleeast/russia-syria-hardware-lister/ 178 Ibid p.3

179 Ibid p.3

180 Russia defends arms sales to Syria. (September). Retrieved from https://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/09/29/Russia_defends_arms_sales_to_Syria/UPI- 28611222726785/

Figure 3.3. Russia Arms Exports Source: https://www.verdict.co.uk/need-know-russias-arms-exports/

Regarding on the figures above, as the former of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited the sophisticated armaments that were used by the Soviet Union, it made Russia as a state that produces many armaments products sold to the international world as a source of state income. One of the customers of Russia armaments product is Syria, Russia is a largest military armaments exporters to Syria. Russia is ranked second in the world of arms exporters after the United States. Russia competes with the United States as the world largest arms supplier. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reported in 2012-2016 that Russia controls 33.000 of the world supply of armaments. Meanwhile, the United States controls 47.000 of the world supply of armaments.181 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reported that Russia continues armaments supply to Syria and reported a 72% supply of armaments to President Bashar Al-Assad.182

181 TIV of arms exports from the top 50 largest exporters, 2012-2016. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/html/export_toplist.php

182 What you need to know about Russia's arms exports. (2017, March). Retrieved from https://www.verdict.co.uk/need-know-russias-arms-exports/

Figure 3.4. Russia Arms Exports Source: https://reader.chathamhouse.org/russias-role-arms-exporter-strategic-and-economic- importance-arms-exports-russia#

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute also reported that the biggest exports from Russia to Syria were in 2008-2013 included anti-airborne missile system Buk-2M and Pantsir-S1 in order to increase the military capability of Syria from the threat of western intervention.183 In 2005, Russia erased Syria government debt to Russia as much as 75% which was borrowed by the Syrian government in the Soviet Union era, instead, Syria bought armaments from Russia and Syria provide naval bases in Tartus.184 Tartus port becomes first Russia naval base in the Middle East region after the collapsed of the Soviet Union. Therefore, its very important for Russia to protect the regime of President Bashar Al-Assad, due to Syrian as a strategic partner of Russia.

183 Ibid.

184 Carlson, J. (2017). Russia's Strategic Interest in Syria. Retrieved from https://www.themarketswork.com/2017/04/12/russias-strategic-interest-in-syria/

III.2.2.2. Oil Russia aims to resolve the Syrian conflict and dominate the Middle East region due to financial vested interest. Russia aims to ensure that Europe relies on Russia for its energy needs and keep the oil price high. The Russia government have been protecting Gazprom company which lucrative gas sales to the European market and the deal of Soyuzneftegaz company – Syria since October 2004 is one of Russia way to protect the sources of gas sell to Europe. The Gazprom and Soyuzneftegaz are the Russian oil and gas company. Since December 2013, Soyuzneftegaz signed a 25- year agreement to prospect for more oil in Syria.185 However, in 2015, the company temporarily stopped its operations due to the Syrian conflict. The Russia government involved in Syria conflict aims to protect the economic interest in order to develop its economy from oil and gas, also resolve the Syrian conflict against Bashar Al- Assad oppositions.

Figure 3.5. Oil Refinery Controlled by ISIS Source: http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2014/09/world/isis-explained/

185 REUTERS SUMMIT-Russias Soyuzneftegaz drops plans for offshore oil... (2015, September 29). Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-syria-oil/reuters-summit-russias- soyuzneftegaz-drops-plans-for-offshore-oil-and-gas-exploration-in-syria- idUSL5N11Z2HO20150929

Syria is the oil and gas strategic route from the Middle East region to Europe and Asia. In addition to being one of the world oil exporters, Syria has become the main oil line in the Middle East. In spite of the current of refinery production fell due to the civil war, the oil pipelines are still actively passing Syria from Saudi Arabia to Iraq to Europe and Asia.186 However, the oil production of Syria fell due to part of the center of oil production in Northern and Southern Syria controlled by the oppositions and partly fell to ISIS. Through the Syrian oil, ISIS able to establish its government in Ar-Raqqah as the capital city, Al-Hasaka governorate and Aleppo governorate which includes the development of religion, education, security, and infrastructure.187 Russia considers that oil prices will become unstable if rebel groups and ISIS control major oil refineries in Syria.

Russia is the fifth largest oil-consuming country after the United States, China, Japan, and India. The Russia daily consumption reaches 3.2 million barrels per day.188 The petroleum sector is income resources of Syria. However in 2011, since the Arab Spring in Syria, the oil production has slumped as its one of main oil refineries was in a militant-controlled area in Northern Syria and used by the rebels. The oil is one of the reasons behind the uprising of the Syrian conflict. Russia gives a firm stance on the Syria conflict with protecting President Bashar Al-Assad. Moreover, that become the Russia opportunity to bring down the power of ISIS through the oil price game and eliminate the ISIS.189

186 Ibid. 187 Malik, S. (2015, December 07). The Isis papers: Leaked documents show how Isis is building its state. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/07/leaked-isis-document- reveals-plan-building-state-syria

188 Duddu, P. (2013, December). The 10 biggest oil consuming countries. Retrieved from https://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/features/featurethe-10-biggest-oil-consuming- countries-4141632/ 189 Temerko, A. (2015, October). Putin's Syria strikes are a long-term play for higher oil prices. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/10/putin-russia-syria-oil-prices

Since 2011, Syria suffered the decline due to Syria civil war and international sanction. Syria produces 250.000 barrels of oil per day before the Syrian conflict in 2010. Syria can only produce 15.000 barrels of oil per day due to the Syria conflict and oil refineries damaged by the oppositions.190 According to Minister of Petroleum and Mineral resources of Syria, Suleiman Al-Abbas state that :

“The beginning of the Syria conflict, Syria suffered losses in the oil and gas sector such as losses oil and gas resources. The government oppositions damaged the infrastructure, damaged the installations and pipelines, and damaged to the industrial equipment”.191

The damage of infrastructure affected to the decline of total oil production and affected the Russian oil revenue. By the Syrian conflict, in the January 2014, the Syrian government lost 12 billion dollars in hydrocarbons due to damage to oil refineries, oil production equipment, and lost the number of exports.192 The Russia foreign policy is to protect the oil resources in Syria also retake the territory of Syria which rich an oil to reach national interest of Russia.

III.2.3. Military Instruments of Russia Foreign Policy Russian military campaign represents Moscow return to the Middle East region. The Russia foreign policy concerned with a new needs in Russia external environment and consideration of changing condition with current realities such as the emergence of the terrorist group ISIS. The Syrian environment tends to fluctuate and growth more even year, that Russia assists with the political solution also military assistance to the Syrian government in order to resolve the conflict.193 In the Russia foreign policy, the involvement in Syria conflict had mainly consisted of supplying the

190 Katona, V. (n.d.). Russia Is Taking Over Syria's Oil And Gas. Retrieved from https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Is-Taking-Over-Syrias-Oil-And-Gas.html

191 Bulos, N. (2013, December 26). Russian firm signs 25-year energy deal with Syria. Retrieved from http://articles.latimes.com/2013/dec/26/world/la-fg-wn-russia-energy-oil-gas-syria-20131226

192 Enzer, G. (n.d.). Syria's hydrocarbons industry in chaos. Retrieved from http://www.arabianoilandgas.com/article-11951-syrias-hydrocarbons-industry-in-chaos/ 193 Chance, M. (2016). Syria: 5 things Russia wants in war. Retrieved from https://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/08/middleeast/syria-aleppo-russia-strategy/index.html

Syrian army. Since 2011, Russia supports Syria government with a political settlement in United Nations and military aid. However, the emergence of moderate rebels and ISIS increase the tension of conflict. In military aid, President Vladimir Putin stated that:

“No one except for Al-Assad army is fighting against ISIS or other terrorist organizations in Syria, no one else is fighting them on Syria territory. Minor airstrikes, including those by the United States aircraft do not resolve the issue in essence; in fact, they do not resolve it all”194

The Russia officials stated that the apart from fighting terrorism such as ISIS, Russia goals included assisting the Syrian government retake territory from anti-government groups that are labeled by the United States and its allies as moderate opposition. The military assistance aims to resolve the conflict. Russia also concerned with the Russian foreign fighters that joined with the ISIS and could be threatened the national security of Russia.

III.2.3.1. Concern Toward Russian Foreign Fighters Russia in its doctrine of foreign policy puts the issue of combating international terrorism as an important task of the government and fundamental priority in the international security sector. Russia condemns all form of terrorism and opposes the misuse of the terrorist organization to achieve the political object, ideology, and the other objectives.195 The widespread of international terrorism by its ideology react the negative response for the international community. Since the declaration of ISIS, the ideology of ISIS widespread through propaganda in Dabiq Magazine to around the world. The widespread of ISIS ideology used to foreign fighters recruitment.

194 Vladimir Putin gave an interview to American journalist Charlie Rose. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.russianembassy.org/article/vladimir-putin-gave-an-interview-to-american-journalist- charlie-rose 195 Russia's goal in Syria is to ensure national security – PM Medvedev. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.rt.com/news/365485-russia-syria-national-security/

The widespread of propaganda until Russia, that led the increase of Russian foreign fighters in Syria. Russia Prime Minister, Dmitry Medvedev stated that :

“Thousand of Russian citizens and individuals from other post-Soviet republics are fighting in Syria. These completely brainwashed people return home as professional murderers and terrorist and we do not want them to stage something similar in Russia after their Syria stints expire”.196

ISIS consist of Sunni Islam adherents. However, President Vladimir Putin acknowledges the existence of Russian Islam.197 Islam is the second largest religion in Russia after Russian Orthodox Christianity. Russia has a population of 146.583.630 from the survey in 2012, revealed that 58.800.000 or 41% is Russian Orthodox Christianity and Muslim consist 9.400.000 or 15% of the total population of Russia. The majority of Muslim in Russia adhere to Sunni Islam, about 10% of total population in Russia is Sunni Islam and approximately 2.000.000 people of Muslim in Russia is Shia adherents.198

The Russia Federal Security Services in July 2013, estimated that about 200 Russian citizens were fighting for the Syrian oppositions. In December 2013, Russian media reported estimate for Russia citizens fighting for Syria opposition was increased to 400. The Russia media also reported that the fighters enter through easy access route via Turkey to the battlefield and brought more fighters. Between 2014 and 2015, the Soufan Group reported that nearly 300% increase in the number of foreign fighters originating from Russia and Central Asia or former Soviet Union countries.199

196 Ibid. 197 Akhmetova, E. (n.d.). ISLAM IN RUSSIA. Retrieved from http://islam.ru/en/content/story/islam- russia

198 Ibid.

199 Ibid.

In September 2015, an estimated 2.500 Russian nationals were fighting alongside ISIS against President Bashar Al-Assad. President Vladimir Putin concern that their return to Russia will be the threat to Russia internal security. President Vladimir Putin also concerns to ISIS and Russian fighters as a major threat and it better to fight them on Syrian ground.200 The Prime Minister of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev stated that the Moscow priority is to protect the lives and dignity of all Russian people.

III.2.3.2. Regional Influence The geographical position of Syria that border with Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, and Turkey is a strategic position to play role politically and dominate the Middle East region against the United States.201 The Military Doctrine of foreign policy is to support the politic and economic instruments of the Russia foreign policy in the Middle East, such as protect the Russia assets in the Middle East region. Syria is a way for Russia to take advantages of becoming an influential state considering the Middle East is a shatterbelt. The Syrian conflict is competition arena of interest and friction between regional power. The Syrian environment is a struggle for influence of regional interest of the western countries and Russia. The conflict and violent condition become a region for the emergence of the radical movement that acted violently in seizing power such as the FSA and the ISIS to control the Syrian territory.202 Moscow aims to plays a significant role to eliminate the FSA, the ISIS and western influence to increase the influence of Russia in the Middle East region.

200 Dearden, L. (2015, October). Syrian army general says new ground offensive backed by Russian air strikes will 'eliminate terrorists'. Retrieved from https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syrian-army-general-says-new-ground- offensive-backed-by-russian-air-strikes-will-eliminate-a6686086.html 201 Martini, J., York, E., & Young, W. (2013). RAND Corporation. Syria as an Arena of Strategic Competition,1-14. Retrieved from https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR200/RR213/RAND_RR213.pdf

202 Ibid.

In order to stabilize the Middle East region and widespread of Russian influence in Syria, Vladimir Putin has an obstacle by the terrorist aggression.203 The situation of Syrian conflict currently is a hot topic for international media, Vladimir Putin thinks about it and stated that:

“We support the Syrian government in confronting terrorist aggression. We have been providing and will continue to provide the necessary military and technical assistance to the Syrian government.”204

Russia is the largest country in the world by land area and the largest population in Europe that located at a strategic crossroads between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Russia is transit corridor for energy lines. The Russia geography, regional influence, role in the United Nations as permanent member become the potential states to resolve the Syrian conflict.205 According to the statement above, President Vladimir Putin asserts Russian influence in the Middle East region through military power. Russia military and technical assistance to the Syrian government is to realizing of its long-term geopolitical interest aims control the oil and gas pipelines. Russia long-term presence in Syria would increase the dominance and the influence in the Middle East and Mediterranian region.206 Tartus and Khmeimim base capable of hosting the largest military presence outside the former Soviet Union borders and the Russian presence give a significant challenge to western countries military. Russia aims to increase the dominance and influence in the Middle East and Mediterranian region that is the significant step to multipolar global power balance which it has sought since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.207

203 The President's Speech: Best Quotes of Vladimir Putin Ahead of UNGA Address. (2015, September 26). Retrieved from https://sputniknews.com/politics/201509261027585893-putin-best- quotes-ahead-unga/

204 Ibid.

205 Sogoloff, N. (2017, August). Russia's Energy Goals in Syria. Retrieved from http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikraforum/view/russias-energy-goals-in-syria 206 Ibid. 207 Ibid.

Syria position is located in the Middle East region on the silk road, that a strategic position is a meeting point between Europe, Asia, and Africa continent. The Syria position makes Syria is a state that attracting many state actors. The Syria territory has a vital position which is an energy roadmap in the regional and international maps.208 Syria plays an important role in the oil and gas production and distribution, Syria is one of the countries that hold an infrastructure of oil and gas pipelines with an important geopolitical position for the life of oil and gas economy in the Middle East region. The Syria territory is an entrance and exit of trans-continent pipelines.209

Russia under President Vladimir Putin is assertive. Russia wants to maintain its naval base in Tartus in the Western Syrian territory due to aims to maintain its existence in the Middle East region, also Russia does not want the Russian foreign fighter alongside ISIS comeback to Russia and threatens the security. The Tartus naval base located on the Mediterranian waters that are a trade route between Europe, Asia, and North Africa region. The Tartus naval base also used by Russia to protect the economic interest of Russian defence, due to the Tartus port is the entrance for Armaments deliveries to the Syrian government.210

In addition to Arms deliveries, Tartus ports able to sends technical and logistics assistance for Russian Armed forces serve in the Syrian conflict and Mediterranian waters. The Tartus port is a military reinforcement of Russia in Syria after has a Khmeimim Airbase. Beside the political assistance, Russia considers the importance of protecting President Bashar Al-Assad by forces assistance against the FSA, ISIS, and western influence, and if Russia lost in the Syrian conflict, the Russian assets will be eliminated by the oppositions and eliminate the Russian interest in the Middle East region. 211

208 Ibid.

209 Ibid. 210 Synovitz, R. (n.d.). Explainer: Why Is Access To Syria's Port At Tartus So Important To Moscow? Retrieved from https://www.rferl.org/a/explainer-why-is-access-/24619441.html

211 Putin signs Syria base deal, cementing Russia's presence there for... (2017). Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-russia-syria/putin-signs-syria-base-deal- cementing-russias-presence-there-for-half-a-century-idUSKBN1AC1R9

CHAPTER IV

THE IMPLEMENTATION OF RUSSIA FOREIGN POLICY IN ORDER TO SUPPORT PRESIDENT BASHAR AL-ASSAD (2011 – 2017)

IV.1. The Cooperations Between Russia – Syria

Russia – Syria is an ally. Russia has strong and stable bilateral relations with Syria since the Cold war era. The relations between Russia – Syria cannot be separated from the politics, economic, and military aspects. Russia has a geopolitical interest in Syria and depends on Syrian oil and gas. Russia – Syria has signed an agreement to cooperate in politics, economy, and military since Hafez al-Assad Presidency. Moreover, in economic military cooperations, Syria depends on Russia sophisticated armaments and Syria becomes the top importers of Russian armaments in the Middle East region to increase Syrian Armed Forces capability. Since President Bashar Al- Assad ruling the Syria, Rusia – Syria cooperation continued in politics, economy, and military aspects as well. 212

During the Syrian conflict, President Bashar Al-Assad made a formal request to Russia for deployed its military against government opposition due to Russia is a reliable partner. Syria as one of the Russian ally in the Middle East region fulfills the Bashar Al-Assad request by direct military intervention deployed first airstrikes to Homs and Hama Governorate. During the Syrian conflict also, Russia supported Syrian government with political, economic, and military support. Russia also deployed major forces in Syria as Russian implementation of foreign policy in the fight against terrorism. Russia attempts to support the Syrian government with political, economic, and military to resolve the Syrian conflict and keep the Bashar Al-Assad position as Syrian President. 213

212 Colonna, J. (2017). Russia and Syria are not allies, only strategic partners. Retrieved from https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/2/18555/Russia-and-Syria-are-not-allies-only-strategic-partners 213 Ibid.

IV.1.1. Political Support of Russia to Syria Government In 1971, under President Hafez Al-Assad made an agreement which the Soviet Union allowed to open the naval base in Tartus giving the Soviet Union a stable presence in the Middle East region. In 1977, Hafez Al-Assad visited Moscow met the Soviet Union leader Leonid Brezhnev to sign the improved Russia – Syria relations. Later in October 1980, Syria and Soviet Union signed a twenty-year Treaty of cooperation.214 The twenty-years treaty of cooperations has extensions for five years unless one of the parties terminates the agreement. The bilateral cooperation provided regular consultation on the bilateral and multilateral issue of interest, coordination of responses in the event of the crisis, and conduct a military cooperation.215

After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, In January 1992 the Syria government recognized the Russia Federation as the legal successor of the Soviet Union.216 Russia – Syria is the strategic partner which Russia has the naval base in the port of Tartus to operate its Black Sea Fleet in Mediterranian sea. Since the beginning of Syrian conflict in March 2011, Russia always used its veto in the UNSC against western countries to prevent the economic or military sanctions and keep supplying large amounts of Russia armaments that had Arms contract earlier with Syria government.217

214 Relations with the Soviet Union. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://countrystudies.us/syria/68.htm 215 Ibid. 216 Weir, F. (2012, January). Why Russia is willing to sell arms to Syria. Retrieved from https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2012/0119/Why-Russia-is-willing-to-sell-arms-to-Syria 217 Ibid.

IV.1.1.1. Russia Politcal – Diplomatic Role in United Nations to Support Syria Government

In the beginning of Syria conflict due to the Arab Spring, Russia considers Syria as an old friend. The Arab Spring triggered Syria conflict that many state actors were involved in order to resolve the conflict. Since May 2011, the Russia Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov opposed the United Nations foreign involvement in Syria and stated that218:

“the situation doesn’t present a threat to international peace and security, Syria is a very important country in the Middle East region and destabilizing Syria would have repercussion far beyond its borders”. 219

Sergei Lavrov asserted to the United Nations that President Bashar Al-Assad had attempt conduct major reform to decrease the major demonstrations and the foreign involvement could affect the destabilization of Syria environment. Later in October 2011, Russia as Permanent members of UNSC, vetoed the UNSC Draft resolution S/2011/612 proposed by the United States and allies, and Sergei Lavrov argued that UNSC Draft resolution is to justify the NATO military intervention such as in the case of Libya, which NATO military intervention in Libya led into war against Libyan government.220 Sergei Lavrov also asserts to opposed the proposal no-fly zone in Syria due to in case of Libya as well before that the no-fly zone in Libya had been used to support one side in the civil war.

On 15 December, Russia proposed a UNSC draft resolution condemned all violence by all parties in Syria environment. In the January 2012, Western countries, Saudi Arabia allies opposed the Russia UNSC draft resolution which did not condemn violence and did not rule out the foreign military intervention. Russia concerned that draft resolution by western countries, Saudi Arabia, and allies supplied the weapons

218 Henry Meyer, Brad Cook and Ilya Arkhipov. (2011, June 02). Russia Warns U.S., EU Not to Aid Syria Protests After Libya. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-06- 01/russia-warns-u-s-nato-against-military-aid-to-syria-protests-after-libya 219 Ibid. 220 Ibid.

84 to the Syrian rebel groups.221 Later on 4 February, Russia vetoed the UNSC draft resolution S/2012/77 that proposed by western countries, Saudi Arabia allies which urged President Bashar Al-Assad to obey the peace plan by Arab League which called withdrew Syrian Armed forces operations from streets. Moreover, Sergei Lavrov stated that Syria should hold the power to change the fate of its people without foreign intervention.222

On 30 January, Sergei Lavrov proposed the informal talks in Moscow between the Syrian government and opposition, and the authorities had already agreed to the Russian offer. The Syria oppositions told to Reuters that they had not received any invitation for talks and stated that the opposite position has not changed and there is no dialogue with President Bashar Al-Assad.223 Then, in 2013, Russia announced that trying to conduct talks in Moscow between Syrian government and opposition. Russia Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mikhail Bogdanov stated that Moscow talks could focus on humanitarian problems as well on the political issue.224

Since 7 May 2012, Vladimir Putin elected as Russia Federation President and become the successor of former President Dmitry Medvedev. President Vladimir Putin renews the concept of Russian foreign policy in 2013 more assert than the previous concept. On September 2013, President Vladimir Putin urging the United States to avoid unitlaeral political and military action and urged to conduct international cooperations in support of a negotiated solution to the Syrian conflict. Vladimir Putin stated that the potential strike by the United States against Syria government will result in more innocent victims and escalation spreading the conflict far beyond Syria

221 Worsnip, P. (2011, December 15). Russian draft offers hope of U.N. Syria resolution. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-syria-un/russian-draft-offers-hope-of-u-n-syria-resolution- idUSTRE7BE25320111215

222 Macfarquhar, N., & Shadid, A. (2012, February 04). Russia and China Block U.N. Action on Crisis in Syria. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/05/world/middleeast/syria-homs-death- toll-said-to-rise.html

223 Staff, R. (2012, January 30). Syria opposition member says no talks with government. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-russia-opposition/syria-opposition-member-says-no- talks-with-government-idUSTRE80T0U220120130

224 Dorell, O. (2013, November). Canceled Syria talks may get new start in Moscow. Retrieved from https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/11/07/syria-peace-talks-chemical- weapons/3464091/

85 borders.225 The strikes also increase violence and emerge the new terrorism, and the conflict further destabilizes the Middle East and North Africa. Russia under Vladimir Putin has advocated Syria peaceful dialogue to develop a compromise plan for their future. President Vladimir Putin stated that we must stop using forces and return the path of civilized diplomatic and political settlement.

On 28 September 2015, President Vladimir Putin took more responsibility for Syrian conflict as the foreign policy implementations in Syria to reach political national interest of Russia.226 On 28 September also, at the 70th session of the UN General Assembly, Vladimir Putin stated that:

“We all know that after the end of Cold War, a single center of domination emerged in the world. We are all different, and we should respect that. No one has to conform to a single development model that someone has once and for all recognized as the appropriate one. Attempts to push for changes within other countries based on ideological reasons often led to tragic consequences and to degradation rather than progress. Just look at the situation in the Middle East and North Africa, political and social problems have been pilling up for a long time in this region and people wanted a change. What was the actual outcome? Instead of bringing reform, aggressive intervention rashly destroyed government institution and local people. Instead of democracy and progress, there is now violence, poverty, social disasters, and total disregard for human rights. Vacum of power in the Middle East and North Africa obviously resulted in the emergence of areas of anarchy.”227

According to the statement, President Vladimir Putin called for cooperation with the Syrian government to fighting the Syrian oppositions. Then, President Vladimir Putin will convene a ministerial meeting to carry out an analysis of threat and supported a comprehensive analysis of threat in the Middle East region.228 President Vladimir

225 Putin, V. (2013, September 12). A Plea for Caution From Russia. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html 226 70th session of the UN General Assembly. (2015, September 28). Retrieved from http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50385 227 70th session of the UN General Assembly. (2015, September 28). Retrieved from http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50385 228 Ibid.

Putin rejected the unilateral international system and action which stressing that the action of the state in international conflict should be clear and transparent.229 The United States did the intervention to combating ISIS and no combating ISIS at all. President Vladimir Putin complained about the democratic revolutions did by the United and allies which it has led to violence, poverty, and political disaster more broader.230 Russia believed that the huge potential of UN and his role could make the world safe.

On 30 September 2015, President Vladimir Putin requested the permission from Federation council which the upper house of the Russian parliament to deploy the military operation in Syria. Federation Council approved the deployment of Russia military to fighting ISIS and rebel groups in Syria. The permission resulted in a unanimous vote to deploy Russia military at a President Bashar Al-Assad request for Russia with provided military assistance.231 Russia military deployed its first airstrikes targeted Homs, Rastan, and Tabliseh.

On 12 October, Vladimir Putin did critics through media United Press International that the United States direct intervention in Syria for sending armaments to the wrong hands. Pentagon under Obama administration announced to train Syria rebels to fight against terrorism that cost $500 million.232 Vladimir Putin stated about a wrong decision of the United that:

“It would have been better to give us $500 million. At least we would have used it more effectively from the point of view of fighting terrorism”233

229 Ibid. 230 Ibid. 231 Walker, S. (2015, September). Russian parliament grants Vladimir Putin right to deploy military in Syria. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/30/russian-parliament-grants- vladimir-putin-right-to-deploy-military-in-syria 232 Putin says U.S. should have given $500M to Russia instead of Syria rebels. (2015, October 12). Retrieved from https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2015/10/12/Putin-says-US-should- have-given-500M-to-Russia-instead-of-Syria-rebels/5211444650476/ 233 Ibid.

According to the statement above, in spite of the terrorism is one of the Russian first priority, Russia stated the goals also to fight non-terrorist groups and rebels whose intent to overthrow Bashar Al-Assad.234 Vladimir Putin criticized that the United States did not eradicate terrorist on the ground, instead train the rebels and create the unstable condition of Syria.

At the same time, Russia stated that Russia did the legal military intervention on 30 September due to accept the official request by legitimate leader of Syria and follow the international law.235 Vladimir Putin stated that:

“Our task is to stabilize the legitimate government and create the conditions for a political compromise by military means, of course.” 236

Vladimir Putin deployed the Russian airstrikes was intended to back up Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad also to stabilize the political climate in Syria that will continue until the national goals achieve. Russian task and priority are to stabilize the legitimate authorities that create the condition for finding the political solution in Syria.237

The Russian political support to Bashar Al-Assad continued on 14 November 2015 at Vienna. Russia criticized the United States idea on Syria political transition which aims to Assad remove His power that Syrian can decide the Syria future through the democratic process, John Kerry stated that238 :

“The war cannot end as long as Bashar Al-Assad hold is there (serve as President).”239

234 Ibid 235 Ibid 236 Ibid 237 Ibid 238 Press, A. (2015, November 14). Diplomats set plan for political change in Syria. Retrieved from http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-3318305/Syria-talks-begin-Vienna-pall-Paris- attacks.html 239 Ibid.

Meanwhile, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov responds John Kerry statements said that :

“The conflict or its solutions are not about Assad as President. It does not matter if you are for Assad or against him, ISIS is your enemy.”240

The statement from the two actors reflected continued differences of an idea to resolve the conflict. The two actors dominantly play role in the UN to determined the Syrian future including the convince the political transition, the United States argued that Bashar Al-Assad should have no role in Syria future, meanwhile Russia argued that the legitimate leader should not to force down, however, it should conduct the Syria election to decide who will rule in Syria.241

In bilateral cooperation between Russia and Syria, President Vladimir Putin led Russia to defend President Bashar Al-Assad as a legitimate leader. The bilateral cooperation between Russia and Syria occurred since Soviet Union era had the cooperations in political-economy and political-military aspects. Russia assertively takes part in Syria conflict to reach Russian national interest through maintaining the position of President Bashar Al-Assad. The bilateral cooperation with Syria led to the military campaign against rebel and ISIS which intended to protect Russian national interest in Syria.242

Russia signed bilateral cooperations before the Syrian conflict. In four and a half of Syrian conflict, Moscow received Damascus request to intervene in Syria conflict called to prioritize the fight against government opposition. The agreement between Moscow and Damascus led the Russia intervention on 30 September that led to show its military capability as great power state in the fight against government opposition.243 In the bilateral cooperation with Syria, Russia takes a lot of advantages which able to control Syrian oil refineries that become the revenue of Russia, also

240 Ibid. 241 Ibid. 242 Kirasirova, M. (n.d.). What Vladimir Putin Really Wants in the Middle East. Retrieved from http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/12/15/what-vladimir-putin-wants-in-the-middle-east/ 243 Ibid.

89 able to modernize the Syrian Armed forces armaments with supply a sophisticated of Russian arms. Russia protects President Bashar Al-Assad due to Vladimir Putin fears that the existing cooperations would eradicate by the new leader.

IV.1.2. The Bilateral Economic Cooperation of Russia to Syria Damascus was Moscow ally since the Cold War era. Since Hafez Al-Assad became Syrian President in 1970, Russia – Syria has the historical background in Arms trade accounted 90% of all Syrian arms imports from Russia. Syria is one of the Russia allies in the Middle East region. Since the beginning of Syrian conflict, Moscow continued refusal support of the United States and Saudi Arabia and allies condemned Bashar Al-Assad regime. President Vladimir Putin and President Bashar Al-Assad have an autocratic solidarity, and Vladimir Putin afraid that Arab Spring could eliminate the major national economic interest in Syria which one is Arms trades. Vladimir Putin afraid if the Syrian government loss and Bashar Al-Assad bring down, therefore, Vladimir Putin did direct intervention as one of the economic motives in preventing Syria government loss by the opposition, also preventing the loss of Russia ally that has Russian arms contracts is one of Vladimir Putin motivation for backing the Syrian government. 244

IV.1.2.1. Direct Russian Arms Sales & Arms Supply to Syria Russia continues to dominate a global position of strength in the defence industry.245 It can be considered as superpower in the global arms trade after the United States, exporting the high amount of sophisticated weapons system to growing number of states in the world that increase the economic revenue of Russia.

Before the beginning of the Syria conflict, In 2008, Syria agreed to the modernization of Syrian Armed Forces through purchase modern arms such as anti-air missile system, MiG-29SMT aircraft fighters, Pantsir S1E anti-aircraft, Iskander ballistic

244 Tierney, D. (2016, January 08). The Danger of Putin Losing in Syria. Retrieved from https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/01/putin-russia-syria-war/423309/ 245 Woody, C. (2017, June 19). The US and Russia are dominating the global weapons trade. Retrieved from http://www.businessinsider.sg/us-russia-global-arms-sales-2016-12/?r=US&IR=T

90 missiles, Yakovlev Yak-130 light attack aircraft, and Amur-1650 Submarines.246 The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia arms exports to Syria in line with the international law and strengthening stability and maintaining the Middle East region to achieve national economic interest of Russia outside former Soviet Union border.247

Since the beginning of Syrian conflict in 2011, Russia remains export arms to Bashar Al-Assad government for use against rebels that backed up by the United States and allies. According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Syria arms contracts with Russia in 2011 and 2012 worth $687 million.248 Russia also provided Syrian Armed Forces MI-25 helicopter gunship, MI-17 and MI-8 helicopter, Buk-M2 air defence system, and the Bastion coastal defence missile system. Russia also provided the fuel, spare parts of the military vehicle engine, transmission, and rotors that have assisted Syrian Armed Forces.249

In 2012, Syrian Armed Forces received an attack helicopter from Kremlin. During the deliver the Russian Mi-25 helicopter gunship, Russia Head of the federal service of military-technical cooperation told to Russian news agency stated that:

“Syria is our friend, and we fulfill all our obligation to our friends”250

According to the statement above, Head of the federal service of military-technical cooperation along with Sergei Lavrov argued that the arms are defensive in nature and arms used to the defensive attempt of the Syrian government.251 Russia simply

246 Tovrov, D. (2012, November 09). Russia?s Arms Deals With Syria: A Timeline. Retrieved from http://www.ibtimes.com/russias-arms-deals-syria-timeline-705522 247 Ibid. 248 Ali, N. (2016, December). Why is Russia bombing Syria? Retrieved from https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/blog/2016/12/30/why-is-russia-bombing-syria 249 Michael R. Gordon, David E. Sanger and Eric Schmitt. (2014, February). U.S. Scolds Russia as It Weighs Options on Syrian War. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/18/world/middleeast/russia-is-scolded-as-us-weighs-syria- options.html?hpw&rref=world&mtrref=en.wikipedia.org&gwh=EFA05911193202E98DAEA25EF E8CE880&gwt=pay 250 Elder, M. (2012, June 28). Syria will receive attack helicopters from Russia, Kremlin confirms. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jun/28/syria-receive-attack-helicopter- risussia?newsfeed=true 251 Ibid.

91 fulfilling its contracts and obligations for Russian ally. Arms exports increase the political, economic, and military influence outside former Soviet Union border.

Tartus port in Syria utilized by Russia to sent aircraft and careers. The attack aircraft that supplied to Syrian Armed Forces designed by Russia to shoot terrorist and rebels targets on the ground. Since the beginning of Syrian conflict also Russia invested $19.4 billion in Syria infrastructure and invested $1.1 billion in the next year.252 If President Bashar Al-Assad bring down, it threatens the Russia business in Syria and could have a domino effect in the nearby Russia Caucasus region.253

On 30 March 2015, President Bashar Al-Assad interviewed by Russian government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta mentioned that Russia arms supplies to Damascus were agreed before the conflict began.254 President Bashar Al-Assad stated that:

“There are contracts that had signed before the crisis started and were carried out during the conflict. There are other agreements on arms supplies and cooperation that have signed during the conflict and are being carried out now.”255

According to the statement above, Russia is the second largest arms exporter, President Bashar Al-Assad revealed on the statement that arms supplied by Russia since the beginning of the Syrian conflict which has killed more than 220.000 people and displaced millions by March 2015.256 Russia supplied Syrian Armed Forces to take into account the type of fighting against the terrorist and rebel groups.

252 Barry, A. (2013, May 10). Adding Fuel to Syria's Fire - FPIF. Retrieved from http://fpif.org/adding_fuel_to_syrias_fire/ 253 Ibid. 254 Staff, R. (2015, March 30). Syria gets Russian arms under deals signed since conflict began: Assad. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-russia-arms/syria-gets-russian-arms- under-deals-signed-since-conflict-began-assad-idUSKBN0MQ0RK20150330 255 Ibid. 256 Ibid.

The Russian arms supply used a political influence which Russia aims to restore Soviet Union era position in arms market.257 Before and since the began the Syrian conflict, Russia consistently gives a military-economic support to the Syrian government. Moscow has shown of its best and sophisticated arms to fight in real combat in the Syrian conflict. According to the database in SIPRI, the arms supplied on Syria occurred significantly in 2007-2013 and Russia supplied with a high amount of arms which explained that258:

Arms Arms Type Ordered Year(s) Year No. of Description Arms of Delivery Delivered Order

T-90 Tank 10 2015 2015 10 T-62 Tank 25 2016 2017 25 BMP-1 Infantry 10 2017 2017 10 Fighting Vehicle 96K9 Pantsyr-S1 Mobile Anti 36 2006 2008- 36 aircraft system 2013 9M311 Surface-to-Air 700 2006 2008- 700 Missile 2013 9M317 Grizzly Surface-to-Air 160 2007 2010- 160 Missile 2013 Buk-M2 Surface-to-Air 8 2007 2010- 8 Missile System 2013 K-300P Bastion Coast Defence 2 2007 2010- 2 System 2011

257 Salacanin, S. (2017, March). Weapons sales: The key to Russia's Middle East agenda. Retrieved from https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/indepth/2017/3/13/weapons-sales-the-key-to-russias- middle-east-agenda 258 Arms Trade Register. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/page/trade_register.php

S-125 Pechora- Surface-to-Air 12 2007 2011- 12 2M Missile System 2013 Yakhont SS N-26 Anti-Ship 72 2007 2010- 72 Missile 2011 KAB-500KR Guided Bomb 100 2010 2012- 100 2013 RVV-AE for Beyond-Visual- 50 2010 2012- 50 MiG-29 Combat Range Air-to- 2013 Aircraft Air Missile (BVRAAM) BPM-97 Armored 10 2014 2014 10 Personnel Carrier Total 1.195 Unit

Figure 4.1. List of Russian Arms Supply to Syria

In spite of provoked critics due to the arms embargo on Syria government by the western countries in response to the violent repression since the beginning of the conflict, Russia dismissed criticism that the arms export to Syrian government did not violate arms embargoes due to Russia has arms contract with Syrian government before the Syrian conflict began.259 Russia turns blamed that the tragedy of Syrian conflict is the outcome of financial aid and arms supply of western countries to rebels, including recruitment of foreign mercenaries.260 President Bashar Al-Assad supports the legitimate leader of Syria by arms supply to fighting rebels and terrorist.

259 Galpin, R. (2012). Russian arms shipments bolster Syria's embattled Assad. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-16797818 260 UN calls for investigation into Houla killings in Syria. (2012, June 01). Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-18295291

IV.1.3. Military Support of Russia to Syrian Government Since 2014, Syrian conflict emerged the ISIS that claimed the significant part of Syria territory and its recognized as terrorist by the international community. On the other hand, the FSA took control of city and villages in Syria that was supported and armed by the United States and allies. Since September 2014, the United States led coalition conducted airstrikes against ISIS.261 However, the airstrikes by the United States was unsuccessful. Instead, the United States aims to bring down the Bashar Al-Assad along with supported the rebels to achieve the United States goals in Syria.262

In July 2015, President Bashar Al-Assad made a formal request to President Vladimir Putin for airstrikes combating the Syrian government opposition. In August 2015, Russia began delivered warplanes, tanks, and artillery and combat troops to military base in Latakia.263 On 26 August 2015, Russia utilized the Khmeimim airbase after signed treaty with Syria government that stipulated terms and condition of Khemeimim airbase with free of charge and permanently.264

In early September 2015, Russia warship of the Black Sea fleet arrived in Tartus port Syria.265 Then, the Russia military direct intervention began on 30 September 2015 deployed its airstrikes targeted Northwestern Syria Homs and Hama Governorate against the FSA and ISIS. Russia direct military intervention aims to assist Syrian government to retake its territory that claimed by the FSA and ISIS. The direct military intervention marked the first time of Russia entered the armed state conflict outside the former Soviet Union border since the end the Cold War.

261 Nissenbaum, D. (2015, January 15). Months of Airstrikes Fail to Slow Islamic State in Syria. Retrieved from https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-led-airstrikes-fail-to-slow-islamic-state-in-syria- 1421271618 262 Ibid. 263 Meeting with President of Syria Bashar Assad. (2015, October). Retrieved from http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50533 264 Russian base in Syria 'to be made permanent and enlarged'. (2016, August). Retrieved from https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russian-base-syria-made-permanent-enlarged/ 265 Luhn, A. (2015, September 14). Russia sends artillery and tanks to Syria as part of continued military buildup. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/14/russia-sends- artillery-and-tanks-to-syria-as-part-of-continued-military-buildup

IV.1.3.1. Russia Military Capability In recent years, Syria Armed Forces relied on Russian arms and Russian assistance. Russia supported the Syrian government since the beginning of the conflict with political, diplomatic, arms supply and direct intervention since September 2015. Syrian Armed forces faced big setbacks on the battlefield that killed 250.000 people in early September 2015.266 Syrian troops pull out from Idlib Governorate which loss of government control from early 2015.

Syria as Moscow ally continued aggressively pursue its foreign policy and security goals by employe the state capabilities which powerful military with perceived threat of intervention.267 Since the began of direct intervention in September 2015, Russia has shown a new capability in the military that capable of intervening in a foreign conflict. Syria conflict as power projection of Russian military which Russia used maritime and airstrikes to deploy its forces in Syria.268 The Russian airstrikes to Syria have supported the Russian ground troops and Syrian Army to focused on rebels and ISIS targets as Russia military campaign.

Russia direct intervention in Syria as a showcase for its military modernization program and sophisticated conventional weapons system and to demonstrate its power projection capabilities. Russia is ranked 2 out of 136 countries considered for the annual Global Fire Power (GFP) index review.269 In GFP index 2015, Russia has 3.586 million total military personnel with 1.013 million an active personnel and 2.572 million reserve personnel. Russia has 5.085 total air power includes planes, helicopters, aircraft from all branches of service (Air force, Navy, Army).

Air power is the important component of modern military forces. In addition to aircraft strength, Russia has 245 total naval power including 1 aircraft carriers, 4

266 Baczynska, G. (2015, September 09). Exclusive: Russian troops join combat in Syria - sources. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-exclusive/exclusive-russian- troops-join-combat-in-syria-sources-idUSKCN0R91H720150909

267 Russia Military Power. (2017). Defense Intelligence Agency. Retrieved from http://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Documents/News/Military Power Publications/Russia Military Power Report 2017.pdf 268 Ibid. 269 Global Firepower Index 2015. (2015). Retrieved from http://peace-league.com/en/rankings/global- firepower-index-2015/

96 frigates, 12 destroyers, 74 corvettes, 55 submarines, 65 coastal defence craft, 34 mine warfare.270

Russia has the greatest number of armored vehicles which has more than 15 thousand tanks including main battle tanks, light tanks, armored fighting vehicle (AFV), self- propelled guns (SPG), towed artillery pieces and multiple-launch rocket system, which in total has 61.086 Army power.271

Russian Manpower Units Total Total Population Persons 142.470.272 Active Military Personnel Persons 1.013.628 Reserve Military Personnel Persons 2.572.500 Total Military Personnel 3.586.128

Figure 4.2. Russian Total Military Personnel

Russian Air Power Units Total Fighters/Interceptors Number 769 Fixed-Wing Attack Aircraft Number 1.305 Transport Aircraft Number 1.083 Trainer Aircraft Number 346 Helicopter Number 1.120 Attack Helicopter Number 462 Total Air Power 5.085

Figure 4.3. Russian Air Power

Russian Naval Power Units Total Aircraft Carriers Number 1 Frigates Number 4 Destroyers Number 12 Corvettes Number 74

270 Kosenkov, K. (2015, July). Global Firepower 2015. Retrieved from https://knoema.com/infographics/ssmsxvd/global-firepower-2015?indicator=Power Index 271 Ibid p.13

Submarines Number 55 Coastal Defence Craft Number 65 Mine Warfare Number 34 Total Naval Power 245

Figure 4.4. Russian Naval Power

Russian Army Power Units Total Tanks (Main Battle Tanks & Number 15.398 Light Tanks) Armored Fighting Vehicle Number 31.298 (AFV) Self-Propelled Guns Number 5.972 Towed Artillery Pieces Number 4.625 Multiple-Launch Rocket Number 3.793 System Total Army Power 61.086

Figure 4.5. Russian Army Power

In addition, Russia has annual $60.4 billion defence budget in 2015.272 In the total of 3.586 Russian military personnel, Russia deployed 4.300 troops to Syria in 2015. Russia defence capability showed that Russia trying to comeback as a great power in the region with involved in Syria conflict.

272 Ibid p.13

IV.1.3.2. Military Deployment of Russia Toward Syria Conflict By 14 September 2015, T-90 main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, the helicopter of Russia arrived in Khemeimim airbase and 500 Russian ground troops arrived at the next day indicating that Russia deployed troops inside Syria to conduct the operation support Bashar Al-Assad regime not only equipped the Syrian Armed Forces.273 On 15 September, Russian cargo airplanes IL-76 and An-124 arrived in Khemeimim airbase carried the trucks and ammunition also Russian Black Sea Fleet arrived at Tartus with sent more ground and naval troops. Russian marines also deployed to protect the naval base and airbase from the rebels and ISIS. The presence of Russia in Khemeimim airbase Latakia and Tartus port intended to protect Russian military base in Syria from the opposition threat. The Russia military deployment to Syria is a game changer, it will alter the international negotiation, create political compromise, weaken the cohesion and attempt of the United States-led coalition and strengthen Bashar Al-Assad regime.274

The military intervention started on 30 September 2015, Russia deployed six Sukhoi Su-34 from Khemeimim airbase for fight against ISIS and rebels. Sukhoi Su-34 is one of the most advanced fighter aircraft that able to bombing and defending themselves in air-to-air.275 Russia deployed its Su-34 airstrikes from Khemeimim airbase targeted ISIS and rebels in Homs and Hama Governorate.

October 2015 is the turning point of the Syrian government for four and a half year war, President Bashar Al-Assad thank President Vladimir Putin for Russian military assistance in Syria conflict.276 On November, Russia deployed more ground troops and deployed more advanced main battlefield tank T-90. On December, President Vladimir Putin warns that Russia scales up its military assistance in Syria conflict to

273ISW. (2015, September 17). Russian Deployment to Syria: Putin's Middle East Game Changer. Retrieved from http://www.understandingwar.org/russian-deployment-syria-putins-middle-east- game-changer

274 Ibid. 275 Marcus, J. (2015, October 07). Syria: What can Russia's military do? Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34411477 276 Quinn, B. (2016, March 14). Russia's military action in Syria – timeline. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/14/russias-military-action-in-syria-timeline

99 end the war. On March 2016, according to Syrian Observatory of Human Rights, Russian airstrikes killed 4.408 people between September 2015 and March 2016.277

In addition to airstrikes, Russia assertively involved in ground operations which deployed 4.300 ground troops in 2015. Since 5 October 2015 a week after direct intervention, President Vladimir Putin sent Spetsnaz Special Forces to protect President Bashar Al-Assad and eradicate ISIS and the FSA.278 Spetsnaz are highly mobile, well-trained, equipped and the task is extremely covert mission and wipe out of the ISIS and rebels that threating President Bashar Al-Assad and Spetsnaz Special Forces conducted the intelligence and coordinate airstrikes in key battlefield areas.

Spetsnaz Special Operation Force also conducted military training for Syria Armed Forces and the reservist purpose to the capacity building which provided training with testing sophisticated equipment and tactics. In particular, Spetsnaz has provided valuable experience fighting an enemy of comparable capability in combat including the use of heavy weapons, infantry fighting vehicle, and unarmed aerial vehicle.279 The Syrian Armed Forces and reservist received weapon training, tactical course, engineering and medical training. The troops acquired good arms that could be used in the defensive or offensive operation.280 Defensive aids and reactive armor also have been tested during training. Syria Armed Forces and the reservist trained by Spetsnaz provided substantial increases in warfighting capability. The military training is to strengthen and modernize the Syrian Armed Forces capability in the battlefield against rebels and terrorist. In two years from September 2015 – September 2017, Russia have trained 1.200 Syrian Armed Forces and reservist at the near of Damascus.281

277 Ibid. 278 Richter, G. (2015, October 05). UK Mirror: Russian Spetsnaz Special Forces Sent In to Protect Assad. Retrieved from https://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/russia-spetsnaz-special- forces/2015/10/05/id/694822/ 279 Russian military instructors train over 1,000 Syrian troops near Damascus. (2017, September). Retrieved from http://tass.com/defense/964424 280 Ibid. 281 Ibid.

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Moreover, Spetsnaz Special Operation Forces contributed to the liberation of Palmyra and battle in Aleppo along with Russia ground troops, Syrian Army, and the reservist.282 Palmyra was strategic locations for Syrian government and opposition due to its located in central of Syria. In March 2016, Palmyra recaptured by Spetsnaz along with Syria Army and its marked a major victory by retaking the ancient town from the ISIS. In December 2016, Russian and Syrian Army won in the battle for Aleppo marked Assad greatest victory in the Syrian conflict after several year Aleppo controlled by the oppositions. Spetsnaz and Russian air support assist intercepted the oppositions communication and supply lines. 283

In addition, Russian military deployment in Syria conflict provided an arena to test its sophisticated armaments in the battlefield which tested Kalibr cruise missiles launches by Russian bomber aircraft, Russian warships and submarines and the long- range precision strike cruise capability have given a high value for the Russian military.284 In October 2016, Russia deployed sole aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov sailed to Eastern Mediterranian to launched combat mission. Others arms for the first time tested in Syria conflict is the Sukhoi Su-34 since introduce in 2014, the Mi-28 and the Ka-58 attack helicopter.285

282 Russian Special Operations Forces. (2017, August). Retrieved from https://southfront.org/russian- special-operations-forces/ 283 ABC News. (2017, June). Key moments in Russia's campaign, involvement in Syrian war. Retrieved from http://web.archive.org/web/20170616170148/http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/key- moments-russias-campaign-involvement-syrian-war-48083114 284 Ibid. 285 Ibid.

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IV.2. The Development of Russia Attempts In Order to Win The War Against The FSA and ISIS

IV.2.1. The Support of Russia to Syrian Government in the Fight Against The Free Syrian Army (FSA) The Russian upper parliament has given formal consent to President Vladimir Putin to use the national military in Syria fulfill President Bashar Al-Assad request against rebels and terrorists. Consent necessary for use the national military for foreign mission under Russian constitution.286 Free Syrian Army is the moderate rebels that threaten Assad government since July 2011. According to Institute for the Study of war in 2015, FSA still occupied around Aleppo and Hama and southern Syria in spite of some FSA area was retake by ISIS. President Vladimir Putin portrays the FSA as the terrorist. Russia started military intervention on 30 September 2015 with airstrikes targeted FSA and ISIS. Russia did military offensive to eliminated rebels in Aleppo from October – December 2015.

IV.2.1.1. Russia Military Operations in the Fight Against The Free Syrian Army (FSA) In early October, Russia airstrikes hit CIA trained rebel sites in Latakia and Idlib Governorate by KAB-500 bomb.287 On 16 October, Russia started operations in Aleppo targeted FSA. In the morning of 16 October, Russian Armed Forces and Syrian Army coordinated to launched large-scale attack in southern Aleppo. Then, Russia and Syrian Army success captured villages that occupied by FSA in southern Aleppo and killed a lot of FSA fighters. On 17 October, the counter-attack did by FSA used TOW missiles that funded by CIA destroyed a bulldozer and captured Infantry fighting vehicle BMP-1.288

286 Russian parliament unanimously approves use of military in Syria to fight ISIS. (2015, October). Retrieved from https://www.rt.com/news/317013-parliament-authorization-troops-abroad/

287 Russian air strikes hit CIA-trained rebels, commander says. (2015, October 01). Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-camp/russian-air-strikes-hit-cia-trained- rebels-commander-says-idUSKCN0RV4KM20151001

288 Perry, T. (2015, October). Syrian rebels say they receive more weapons for Aleppo battle. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-aleppo/syrian-rebels-say- they-receive-more-weapons-for-aleppo-battle-idUSKCN0SD16O20151019

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On 19 October, Russia and Syrian government did counter-attack with captured the other villages in southern Aleppo and killed a lot of FSA fighters. On 20 October until 23 October, Russian and Syrian Army full control of villages in southern Aleppo and ten thousand of people fled from southern Aleppo.289 On 28 October, Russia continued airstrikes operation to the other part of Aleppo Governorate which the airstrikes bombed the FSA headquarters in northern Aleppo countryside.

On 24 November, the Russian Sukhoi Su-24 fighter aircraft shot down by Turkish Air Forces used F-16 Fighting Falcon.290 While the Russian pilot descending his parachute, the FSA shot and killed the pilot.291 Afterward, Russia responds with deploy additional air defence weapons in the Syria conflict and accompany bombers aircraft with fighters aircraft.

On 28 November, Russia and Syrian Army continued its military operations in southern Aleppo to captured remain FSA area. In early December until mid- December, Russia and Syrian Army captured nine villages that still occupied by the FSA. On 20 December, Russia and Syrian Army captured the strategic town of Khan Tuman in southwest Aleppo which places for FSA ammunition depot. The Russia and Syria Army also severed the primary FSA supply route from the capital of Idlib Governorate to the capital of the Aleppo Governorate. In the next day, the FSA withdrew from Khan Tuman town and Syrian Army took full control south part of Aleppo. On 1 February 2016, the Syrian Army launched an attack in Northern Aleppo severed the FSA supply Aleppo – Turkey and full control of North Aleppo which its marked a major victory of Syrian Armed Forces against the FSA.292

289 Barnard, K. F. (2015, October). Russia Makes an Impact in Syrian Battle for Control of Aleppo. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/21/world/middleeast/russia-makes-an-impact-in- syrian-battle-for-control-of-aleppo.html 290 Turkish F-16s shoot down Russian warplane near Syrian border. (2015, November 24). Retrieved from http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-24/turkey-shoots-down-jet-near-syrian-border/6970776 291 I. (2015, November 27). Syria: Photos of Alparslan Celik, rebel leader from Turkey who shot Russian pilot, go viral. Retrieved from https://www.ibtimes.co.in/syria-photos-alparslan-celik-rebel- leader-turkey-who-shot-russian-pilot-go-viral-656993 292 Al Jazeera. (2016, February 03). Syrian army encircles Aleppo as ceasefire talks fade. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/syrian-army-encircles-aleppo-ceasefire-talks-fade- 160203033045269.html

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IV.2.2. The Support of Russia to Syrian Government in the Fight Against ISIS ISIS has taken over the large portion of Syrian territory since declared in June 2014 as its mission to create Khilafah/Caliphate world. ISIS also took control of several oil and gas fields in Syria. ISIS also took control several Syrian Governorate after the battle with the rebels or the FSA. Since the declaration of ISIS in June 2014, ISIS active in social media targeted potential recruits and supporters over worldwide which thousands of Russia citizens joined and would be the threat to national security.293

Russia received a formal request by President Bashar Al-Assad to use forces against government opposition.294 Then, Russia ready to assist Bashar Al-Assad with military action. Sergei Ivanov, Russian politician and Head of Staff of the Presidential Administration stated that :

“Unlike the United States-led coalition of countries that bombs militant troops in Syria, Russia was invited to do so by the legal authorities of Syria and follows international law. The Military goals of the operation are strictly to provide air support for Syrian government forces in their fight against ISIS.”295

According to the statement above, Russia ready to deploy more airstrikes on Syria to eliminate the FSA, also ISIS as a threat to the international community. Russia considered the Russian foreign fighters that if return home would threaten the national security.296 Russia also aims to protect Bashar Al-Assad as a legitimate leader in Syria and assist Bashar Al-Assad retake territory from ISIS.

293 Ibid p.19 294 Ibid p.19 295 Ibid p.19 296 Ibid p.19

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IV.2.2.1. Russia Military Operations in the Fight Against ISIS The Russian first airstrikes conducted on 30 September 2015 launched from Khmeimim airbase attacked Rastan and Talbiseh in the Homs Governorate and attacked Salamiyah in the Hama Governorate in Northwest of Syria. The first airstrikes of Russia deployed Sukhoi Su-34 dropped the bomb KAB-500s targeted the FSA and ISIS. President Vladimir Putin said that the military operation prepared in advanced and success bombed the Homs and Hama Governorate Syria.297 The Homs Governorate is crucial to President Bashar Al-Assad control of Northwestern Syria due to Homs Governorate is the largest province in Syria that fully controlled by Syria government opposition.

On 1 October, the Su-34 destroyed an ISIS command center and training camp in Ar- Raqqah, capital of ISIS.298 In the next day, Su-34 bombed Hama governorate hit ISIS underground bunker and destroyed ammunition depots in Maarat al-Numan, Idlib Governorate. Russia Air Forces representatives stated that Su-34 acquired targets used the Russian satellite system GLONASS for bombing against ISIS.299

On 8 October, Russia increased its airstrikes significantly over 60 attacks in a day. On 9 October, Minister of defence of Russia, Sergey Shoygu stated that over 60 attacks were hit ISIS in the past 24 hours and killed 300 militants in the most intense airstrikes in October.300 The other attack on that day destroyed a former prison that utilized by ISIS as ammunitions depot.

297 Syria crisis: Russian air strikes against Assad enemies. (2015, September 30). Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34399164 298 S. (2015, October 02). Russian Air Force Destroys ISIL Command Center, Training Camp in Syria. Retrieved from https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201510021027898340-russia-airstrike-destroys- isil-command-center-syria/ 299 S. (2015, October 03). Russian Bombers Use Satellite-Guided Missiles for High Precision (VIDEO). Retrieved from https://sputniknews.com/military/201510031027974131-russian-planes- use-glonass-satellite-system/ 300 Russian air force hits 60 Islamic State targets in Syria, kills 300 jihadists. (2015, October). Retrieved from https://web.archive.org/web/20151012021729/http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com//world/middleeast/Russian-air-force-hits-60-Islamic-State-targets-in-Syria-kills-300- jihadists/articleshow/49292491.cms

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Later on 17 November, President Vladimir Putin deployed long-range strategic bombers Tupolev Tu-160, Tu-95MSM, Tu-22M3 purposed to launched air cruise missile to attack ISIS in Ar-Raqqa, Deir ez-Ezzor, Aleppo, and Idlib Governorate.301 According to Sergey Shoygu, Russia deployed more than 50 aircraft to intensify Russian military campaign in Syria.302 According to the Russia Ministry of Defence also, strikes by long-range bombers with the fired cruise missile in the same area in Syria occurred in the following day.

Since 5 December, President Vladimir Putin commanded Sergey shoygu to continued intensified airstrikes that conducted over 3 days with Russian aircraft Tu- 22M3 strategic bombers and resulted in 600 ISIS targets killed in Ar-Raqqa Governorate.303 On 8 December 2015, Sergey Shoygu announced that Russia deployed a Kilo-Class Submarine with launched 3M14K cruise missiles targeted ISIS in Ar-Raqqa Governorate while submerged, also it marked the first strikes from the Mediterranian water.304

On 19 December, President Vladimir Putin commended the Russia Armed Forces performance in Syria conflict to the Russian news agency and stated that:

“The Russia Armed Forces have not employed all their capability in Syria and may use more military means if necessary. We see how efficiently our pilots and intelligence agents coordinate their effort with various kind of forces – Army, Navy, Aviation, how they use the most modern weapons. I want to stress that these are by far not all of our capabilities, we have more military means and we will use if need be.”305

301 This Infographic provides all the details about the Russian Strategic Bomber Fleet Operations over Syria. (2015, November 21). Retrieved from https://theaviationist.com/2015/11/21/infographic- russian-strategic-bombers-syria/ 302 Russia involves strategic missile carriers in operation against Islamic State in Syria. (2015, November). Retrieved from http://tass.com/defense/837226 303 Ibid. 304 Russia hits targets in Syria from Mediterranean submarine. (2015, December 08). Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35041656 305 Putin - Russia ready to use 'more military means' in Syria if need... (2015, December 19). Retrieved from https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-army/putin-russia-ready-to-use- more-military-means-in-syria-if-need-be-agencies-idUKKBN0U20IP20151219

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On 25 December, Head of the Russian General Staff Main Operations Department, Sergey Rudskoy stated that since the beginning of military intervention on 30 September 2015, Russian Air Forces has conducted 5.240 airstrikes in Syria conflict including 145 airstrikes by long-range aviation.306 Later, on 14 January 2016, Russian under Ministry of Defence launched the first joint bombing mission by Russian Air Forces Sukhoi Su-25 fighters aircraft and Syrian Air Forces Mikoyan MiG-29 aircraft.307

On 1 February 2016, Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov speech in UN Geneva Syria Peace Talks stated that:

“Russia would not stop its airstrikes until Russia truly defeated terrorist organization of ISIS. And I do not see why these airstrikes should be stopped.”308

According to the statement above, Sergey Lavrov disagrees with the United States Minister of Foreign Affairs John Kerry statement in Syrian peace talks that Russia should stop bombing the government opposition.309 Sergey Lavrov denied that statement due to Russia goals is to eradicated ISIS on the ground and ISIS actively recruits the foreign fighters which would be the threat if the foreign fighters return home.

Later in March 2016, the Russia Armed Forces along with Spetsnaz did more intensive operations to support the Syrian government recapture the Palmyra that includes the UNESCO world heritage site. The military operations called Palmyra offensive started on 9 March 2016 when heavy Russian airstrikes hit Palmyra area

306 Eleftheriou-Smith, L. (2015, December 27). Russia releases fresh footage of air strikes in Syria claiming to hit Isis oil targets. Retrieved from https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/russia-releases-fresh-footage-of-air-strikes-in-syria- claiming-to-hit-isis-oil-targets-a6787211.html 307 Syrian MiG-29 Escort Russian Su-25 During Air Raids Against IS. (2016, January 19). Retrieved from http://www.defenseworld.net/news/15100/Syrian_MiG_29_Escort_Russian_Su_25_During_Air_Rai ds_Against_IS#.Wt0rvy5ubIU 308 Lavrov: Russia won't stop Syria strikes until 'terrorists' defeated. (2016, February 03). Retrieved from https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-lavrov/lavrov-russia-wont-stop-syria- strikes-until-terrorists-defeated-idUKKCN0VC0SM 309 Ibid.

107 resulted 32 ISIS fighters killed.310 The major ground troops deployed 12 March attacked Palmyra Castle in Jabal Qassoun mountain. However, ISIS built tranches to defensive attempt. On 14 March, the ground troops attack Jabal Hayyan mountain at the southwest part of Palmyra and captured at the next day.311

On 17 March, ISIS took advantage of a sandstorm to launched a counter-attack toward Jabal Hayyan mountain against Russia. The Russian ground troops repelled the ISIS attacks, and later the Syrian marines from the Latakia Governorate deployed by the government as Palmyra reinforcements to strengthen attacks. In the same day, ISIS sent reinforcements killed Spetsnaz commander Alexander Prokhorenko when he ordered airstrikes on himself after surrounded by ISIS fighters and became the international media attention.312

In the following day, Russia conducted the airstrikes for 20-25 times per daily on ISIS position concurrently with intensive ground troops operations. On 21 March, Russian ground troops and Syrian Army assisted by reinforcement from NDF (National Defence Force) which pro-government militia group raises the number of forces into 6.000 people in the area.313 On 25 March, the Russian ground troops and Syria Army took control of hilltops in Palmyra and captured Palmyra Castle in the next day. Palmyra Castle is important for Syria government due to is one of the icon world heritage site in Syria.

310 Syrian army aims for eastward advance with Palmyra attack. (2016, March). Retrieved from http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2016/Mar-11/341718-syrian-army-aims-for- eastward-advance-with-palmyra-attack.ashx 311 Breaking: Syrian Army storms the Palmyra Castle. (2016, March). Retrieved from https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-storms-palmyra-castle/

312 Dearden, L. (2016, April 30). Body of Russian special forces officer who 'ordered air strike on himself' to kill Isis militants returned home. Retrieved from https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russian-special-forces-officer-ordered-air-strike- on-himself-to-kill-isis-militants-surrounded-body-a7008106.html

313 More reinforcements pour into Palmyra as the Syrian Army prepares to storm the city. (2016, March 22). Retrieved from https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/reinforcements-pour-palmyra- syrian-army-prepares-storm-city/

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The war raged in the next day in another archeological site and ISIS withdrew their equipment from Palymira. In the next day on 27 March, Palmyra fully captured by Syrian Army after remaining ISIS defence collapsed and remain ISIS fighters in Palmyra killed by Russian ground troops and Syria Army. After deliberation of Palmyra, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that Palmyra offensive killed 417 ISIS fighters out of 2.000 fighters and remain fighters were retreating from Palmyra. Meanwhile, 3 Russia Armed Forces were killed in action and 191 Syria Armed Forces killed in action.314 Afterward, Russian installed an air defence system to protect the archeological sites as Syrian world heritage.

On December 2016, Palmyra offensive continued when ISIS fighters launched its attack recaptured the ancient city. ISIS previously controlled Palmyra from May 2015 until March 2016 captured by Russia and Syria Armed Forces. ISIS held attacks from eastern Homs Governorate on 8 December. ISIS recaptured Palmyra to control oil fields and the ISIS attack launched when Russia and Syria Armed Forces were focused launched attacks in another city and Governorate. 315

In the next day, Syrian Army launched a counter-attack to recapture the city with reinforcements of airstrikes. However, 15 Syrian Army were killed by ISIS during the ambush, and ISIS took control of Palmyra oil fields. On 10 December, military reinforcement arrived in Palmyra, Russian and Syrian Air Forces targeted ISIS in oil fields and destroyed several ISIS armored vehicle. In the same day, during launched the next airstrikes, Syrian Air Forces MiG-23 crashed after shot down by ISIS and ISIS did military reinforcements captured the city and killed more Russia and Syrian Army.316 Therefore, on 11 December, ISIS success recaptured and took control of the Palmyra oil fields and Palmyra castle.

314 Boyle, D. (2016, March). Pictured: Syrian army on the ground as they continue to retake historic city of Palmyra from ISIS after massive offensive as Iraqi forces advance on Mosul. Retrieved from http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3507616/Syrian-army-enters-historic-city-Palmyra-ISIS- warned-crushed-feet-Assad-s-forces.html 315 Islamic State fighters re-enter ancient Palmyra in Syria. (2016, December 10). Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38275905 316 Press, A. (2016, December). The Latest: IS says it shot down Syrian jet near Palmyra. Retrieved from http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-4019876/The-Latest-IS-says-shot-Syrian-jet-near- Palmyra.html

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In January 2017, Russia and Syria Army launched an attack to recapture Palmyra after ISIS took controlled in December 2016.317 On 16 February, the Syrian Army retake gas fields and success retake oil fields. On 24 February, the Russian and Syrian Army success retake Jabal Hayyal mountains. On 1 March, the Syrian Army captured the Palmyra castle and the other ancient archeological sites. In the same day, ISIS failed launched a counter-attack due to Russian and Syrian Army has full control over Palmyra and killed a lot of ISIS fighters. In the same day, Russian and Syrian Army succeed recapturing Palmyra after ISIS totally withdrew and again Russia and Syria Army took control of oil and gas fields. According to Russian military claimed that more than 1.000 ISIS fighters killed and destroyed 19 tanks, 37 armored fighting vehicles during Palmyra offensive in December 2016 – March 2017.318

After recaptured Palmyra, the Russian and Syrian Army continued its military operations to the region around Palmyra. In March until May 2017, the Russian and Syrian Army operated in East Homs Governorate offensive. At the end of May, the Russian and Syria Army controlled all roads linking Damascus Governorate with Palmyra.319

On 9 May 2017, the Russian and Syrian Army did offensive operations against the remain ISIS strongholds in eastern Aleppo Governorate for the second times before launch attack on Ar-Raqqa Governorate. Russia started with heavy airstrikes against ISIS in the eastern countryside of Aleppo.320 On 17 May, the Syrian Army captured 11 villages in east Aleppo also in 21 and 24 May, Syrian Army captured 11 villages reached within 6 Km from ISIS strongholds in Maskanah eastern Aleppo. On 26 May, Syrian Army captured a village that only 3Km from ISIS strongholds in

317 Al-Khalidi, S. (n.d.). Islamic State militants capture Palmyra despite heavy Russian strikes. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-palmyra/islamic-state- militants-capture-palmyra-despite-heavy-russian-strikes-idUSKBN13Z073 318 Palmyra Front (March 3, 2017): Palmyra Liberation: The Road Back from T-4. (2017, March 04). Retrieved from https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/palmyra-front-march-3-2017-palmyra- liberation-road-back-t-4/ 319 Syrian Army annihilates ISIS in Homs, reopens all roads between Palmyra and Damascus. (2017, May 25). Retrieved from https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-annihilates-isis-homs- reopens-roads-palmyra-damascus/ 320 Russian jets hammer ISIL ahead of Syrian military's offensive in east Aleppo. (2017, May 10). Retrieved from https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-jets-hammer-isil-ahead-syrian- militarys-offensive-east-aleppo/

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Maskanah. On 1 June, Syrian Army severed ISIS main supply route toward Maskanah. On 3 June, the Russian and Syrian Army captured ISIS strongholds in Maskanah and surrounding villages. Afterward, ISIS withdrew from eastern Aleppo which its last ISIS strongholds in Aleppo Governorate.321

In the next month, the Russian and Syrian Armed Forces started the central Syria campaign which deployed more large-scale military operations against ISIS. The goals were to capture the strategic oil town in Al-Sukhnah in Homs Governorate and capture 11.000 Km2 ISIS territory in central Syria.322 The campaign also was to capture Ar-Raqqa Governorate which capital city and strongholds of ISIS in Syria. During central Syria campaign, Russia deployed large-scale airstrikes to Ar-Raqqa, Homs, Deir ez-Zor Governorate. 323

Started on 14 July, Russia and Syrian Army deployed offensive attacks to Resafa, south of Ar-Raqqa Governorate.324 On 16 July, the Resafa oil and gas fields captured by Russian and Syrian Army killed dozens ISIS fighters. On 18 July, ISIS pushed out in the western and southwestern of Ar-Raqqa Governorate when Russia deployed large scale of airstrikes and besieged by Syrian Army. Between 23 and 25 July, massive army reinforcements deployed to capture Al-Sukhnah. On 25 July also, Russia Air Forces did multiple airstrikes in Homs and eastern Hama Governorate against ISIS and Syrian Army deployed a large artillery bombardment to ISIS position in eastern Hama. On 5 August, the Syrian Army captured Al-Sukhnah and full control of oil field in Homs Governorate.325

321 Breaking: Syrian Army liberates Maskanah, ISIL expelled from Aleppo. (2017, June 03). Retrieved from https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-liberates-maskanah- isil-expelled-aleppo/ 322 The regime forces are about 70 km away of besieging the “Islamic State” in more than 11000 square km within the provinces of al-Raqqa, Homs, and Hama. (2017, July 14). Retrieved from http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=69945 323 Ibid. 324 Ibid. 325 Huge artillery bombardment laid down on ISIS by pro-Syria forces in eastern Hama (2017, July 29). Retrieved from https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/huge-artillery-bombardment-laid-isis- pro-syria-forces-eastern-hama-video/

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On 5 September, Russia deployed more airstrikes and navy to besiege ISIS in Deir ez-Zor. Later on 3 November, Russia and Syrian Army also took control of Deir ez- Zor Governorate and on 17 November ISIS fighters surrendered in Deir ez-Zor that regained full control of territory surrounding Deir ez-Zor Governorate.326 In addition, at the end of October, Ar-Raqqa Governorate had been liberated by Syrian Army from ISIS.

On 21 November, President Bashar Al-Assad traveled to the Sochi city, Russia for meeting with President Vladimir Putin. President Vladimir Putin congratulated to both President Bashar Al-Assad and Russian Armed Forces on very important strategic victory. The Russian military stated that Syrian territory had been liberated from rebels and ISIS.327 President Vladimir Putin stated that:

“Our fight against terrorism in Syria is concerned, this military operation is really coming to end”.328

Meanwhile, President Bashar Al-Assad responds and stated that:

“Over this period, great success has been achieved, both directly on the battlefield and in political terms. Many of area of Syria have been liberated from terrorist, and Syrian who were forced to leave earlier could return to these areas”.329

According to the statement above, Russia accomplishes its mission against ISIS. Syria territory has been liberated from the FSA and ISIS. Afterward, on 11 December, Syria government declared that had been completely liberated from ISIS. Later, President Vladimir Putin visited the airbase and naval base in Syria and announced that he ordered the partial withdrawal of Russian Armed Forces in Syria.330 On 26 December, Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Shoigu had formed

326 Syrian forces break ISIS siege of Deir ez-Zor airfield after Russian air strike. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://tass.com/politics/964823 327 A. (2017, November 21). WINNERS: Bashar al-Assad meets Vladimir Putin in Russia. Retrieved from http://theduran.com/winners-bashar-al-assad-meets-vladimir-putin-russia/ 328 Ibid. 329 Ibid. 330 Putin announces Russian troop withdrawal from Syria during visit. (2017, December 11). Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42307365

112 permanent grouping at the Tartus naval airbase and Khemeimim airbase in Latakia. President Vladimir Putin approved and the upper parliament approved the ratification of an agreement between Russia and Syria on expanding naval base which turns into a full fledge of the naval base.331

Figure 4.6 Syrian Territory on December 2017 Source: https://www.businessinsider.sg/map-of-isis-territory-2017-12/?r=US&IR=T

The map above shows ISIS dramatic losses of territory in 2017 wiped out by Russia and Syria Armed Forces. Moreover, ISIS still control three area in Syria which are Abu Kamal village in Deir ez-Zor Governorate bordered with eastern Iraq, northwest near kurdish area, and in the far southwest bordered with Israel. In spite of losses most of its territory, many fighters fled the fighting and return to their countries, or sneaking across the border to Turkey.332

331 Russia's upper house ratifies agreement on naval base in Syria's Tartus. (2017, December 26). Retrieved from http://tass.com/defense/983048 332 Kranz, M. (2017, December 22). This map shows how ISIS has been almost completely wiped out. Retrieved from http://www.businessinsider.sg/map-of-isis-territory-2017-12/?r=US&IR=T

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IV.2.2.2. Russia Concerns Toward The Remaining of Russian Foreign Fighters Russia becomes one of the top exporters of foreign fighters who join ISIS in Syria conflict. In 2015, Russia reported that has 2.500 people become foreign fighters join ISIS. Meanwhile, in the next year, the Soufan Group reported that Russian foreign fighters were increased approxiamately to 3,417 people.333 Russia government concerned about the threat of foreign fighters that return to Russia become professional murder and bombers also threaten the Russian national security.334

Figure 4.7. Number Of Foreign Fighters Returned Source: http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/10/31/russia-now-leading-source-of-isis-fighters-and- other-neglected-russian-stories-euromaidan-press/

According to Soufan Group, 400 Russian foreign fighters had been returned home after surrendered themselves in the battlefield.335 The return of foreign fighters to Russia become the security challenges for the government. As the end of Khilafah,

333 Fox News. (2017, October 25). Russia 'exports' more ISIS fighters than any other country, report finds. Retrieved from http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/25/russia-exports-more-isis-fighters- than-any-other-country-report-finds.html 334 Ibid. 335 Ibid.

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Russia address this security concern and prepare to deal with an outflow of individuals that potentially to influence and launch an attack.

Moreover, Sergey Lavrov admitted that Russian foreign fighters traveled to Syria and join ISIS based on their own accord and for a variety reasons.336 Since Russia military intervention in September 2015, hundreds until thousands of Russian and other former Soviet Union foreign fighters were killed during battle in Syria since Russian military offensive in Palmyra, Homs, Eastern Aleppo, Hama, Ar-Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, and Idlib Governorate.337

In addition, Head of Federal Security Service or also known as FSB, Alexander Bortnikov conducted a meeting of Russia National Anti-Terrorism Committee purposed to prevent returned Russian foreign fighters attack in the Russian environment.338

336 Bennetts, M. (n.d.). Russia admits 'several dozen' of its citizens killed in Syria fighting. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/20/russia-admits-several-dozen-its-citizens- killed-syria-fighting 337 Ibid. 338 R. (2017, December 12). Returning ISIS fighters are a 'real threat' to Russia, according to security- service chief. Retrieved from http://www.businessinsider.com/r-return-of-defeated-is-fighters-real- threat-to-russia-ria-cites-fsb-chief-2017-12/?IR=T

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CHAPTER V

CONCLUSION

Arab Spring revolution occurred in the Middle East region since December 2010 driven by demonstrations of civilian to bring down the regime caused by the corruption, economic gap, discrimination of lower economic people, and violence by the government to its civilian. Firstly, Arab Spring began in Tunisia on December 2010 when self-immolation did by street vendors Mohamed Bouazizi after the social harassment and humiliation committed by the Tunisian government. After the death of Mohamed Bouazizi, demonstrations widespread to all of the Tunisian province to bring down the government and succeed bring down Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ali. The successful of Tunisian demonstrations triggered the other Arab States to started demonstration in order to bring down the authoritarian government. Afterward, the demonstration widespread to Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and the other Arab states in January 2011 through the propaganda in social media and news that read Ash-sha’b yurid isqat an-nizam which means the people want to bring down this regime.

The Arab Spring revolution occurred in Syria since March 2011 after the government tortured the 15 students who wrote its Arab Spring slogans Ash-sha’b yurid isqat an- nizam in their school walls in Daara, Southern Syria. The government tortured those 15 students triggered major demonstration in Syria aims to bring down President Bashar Al-Assad who ruling since 2000 and ruling Shia Ba’ath Party who ruling Syria since 1963. On April 2011, the demonstrators approximately gathered 100.000 people in the central square of Homs city called for the resignation of President Bashar Al-Assad. However, the Syrian government responded with brutal crackdown and violence resulted in dozens of casualties and its resulted the Syrian conflict.

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The Arab Spring also triggered the foreign involvement to resolve the conflict, which involved the United States and allies, and Russia. Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, the United States and allies and Russia play role in United Nations to resolve the conflict. Meanwhile, the major countries have a different approach to resolve the conflict, which the United States and allies called President Bashar Al-Assad to down from His presidential position and Russia support President Bashar Al-Assad as a legitimate leader who determines the fate of its people without foreign intervention. Russia also condemned the United States unilateral action did the intervention in the Middle East region that affected the instability of the region.

The demonstration increase in June 2011 when the demonstration become an armed insurgency after demonstrators took control of police station in Idlib Governorate, also a lot of Syrian Armed Forces defectors from Sunni Islam adherents which refused to shot the demonstrations during the operations. On July, the defector of Syrian Armed forces Riad Al-Assad established the Free Syrian Army (FSA) consist the Sunni Militia alongside demonstrators aims to bring down President Bashar Al- Assad with guerilla-style tactics. The FSA funded by the United States and allies with economy and military which arms supplied and conducted the training by CIA. Then, the FSA did the operations to control the villages and cities in the Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor, and Homs Governorate.

The Syrian conflict fluctuates in each year with the emergence of Islamic States of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) led by Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi. ISIS consist of Sunni Islam adherents declared the organization in June 2014 with Khilafah ideology aims to bring down the Assad government who the majority is Shia Muslim adherents also to widespread its Khilafah ideology around the world. Since the declaration, ISIS did propaganda in social media, magazine, and news to attract people become the foreign fighters. Russia is one of the most contributors countries of foreign fighters, and it threatens the national security of Russia.

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In addition, Russia and Syria is an ally that has relations since the Cold war era. Before the beginning of the Syrian conflict, Russia supports Syria with direct arms sales and arms supply to the modernization of Syrian Armed forces. Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011, Russia support politically with the role in UN used vetoes against the United States and ally also support with economic continued its direct arms sales and arms supply to the Syrian government. Moreover, in July 2015 President Bashar Al-Assad made a formal request to Russia for deployed airstrikes in Syria to fight against government opposition due to in 2015 was the major setbacks of Syrian Armed Forces in four and a half the Syrian conflict.

On 30 September 2015, Russia did the direct military intervention to fulfill the Damascus request deployed its first airstrikes against government opposition in Homs and Hama Governorate. Russia did direct military intervention as an implementation of Russia foreign policy under President Vladimir Putin aims to restore Soviet Union glory as Great Power country. President Vladimir Putin renew the previous concept when He served as Prime Minister. President Vladimir Putin elected since 2012 renew the concept of Russian foreign policy in 2013 that assertively opposed the unipolar international system. The unipolar international system by the United States as remain superpower tend to did a unilateral action that can unstabilize the region. Meanwhile, Russia did the direct intervention to show its capability as Great Power to create the multipolar international and fair world order.

Russia also implements a foreign policy to support the legitimate leader in Syria, due to Russian has political, economic, and military national interest in Syria. In political national interest, Russia protects Bashar Al-Assad as a strategic partner, also Russia – Syria is an ally since the Cold war era that Russia prevents to loss its ally in the Middle East region and aims to create a multipolar international system through resolve the Syrian conflict. In economic national interest, Syria has a strategic location of oil and gas pipelines passing through Europe and Russia is top exporters of oil to European countries. Russia depends on Syrian oil and gas as one of the economic revenue. Russia also is the top exporters of armaments to Syria and the cooperations in armaments between Rusia – Syria occurred since Hafez Al-Assad Presidency in 1970.

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In military national interest, Russia aims to resolve the conflict through direct military intervention. Russia aims to resolve the Syrian conflict through eradicating the ISIS as an international terrorist and the FSA as rebels. Russia also aims to stabilize the Middle East region through resolve the Syrian conflict. In addition, Russia has signed an agreement that Tartus port as Russian naval base since the long time ago. Russia intervention in Syria is to maintaining the Tartus port that is a strategic location to put Russian Marines operate and control the Mediterranian waters. Russia supports President Bashar Al-Assad with political, economic, and military support. Military action by Russia is to protect the Russian assets such as oil and gas.

Throughout all the research conducted, it leads to findings of Russia supports President Bashar Al-Assad with political, economic, and military attempts as an implementation of Russia foreign policy toward Syrian conflict. Political support conducted an agreement of bilateral cooperation between Russia – Syria to fight against terrorism and continued the arms contracts in Syria conflict. In political support also, Russia play role in multilateral level in UN to support Syrian government resolve the conflict. Russia deployed its military as military support to President Bashar Al-Assad did operations fight against ISIS and the FSA also retake the oil refineries and Syrian territory that claimed by ISIS. Russia also deployed its military to training the Syrian Armed Forces and the reservist increase the capability against the government opposition. Russia in Syria battlefield shown its sophisticated armaments and Syria becomes an arena to test its sophisticated armaments.

The Russian airstrikes, marines, army, and Spetsnaz had been deployed during the operations and succeed retake Syrian territory from the government opposition which its marked as the major victory of Rusia and the Syrian government. In addition, at the end of 2017, ISIS and the FSA declined after loss 85% its power and territory. President Bashar Al-Assad thank President Vladimir Putin for its assistance. Moreover, at the end of 2017 also, President Vladimir Putin said that the mission has accomplished and ordered the partial withdrawal of Russian Armed Forces in Syria.

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