The Russia Foreign Policy Toward the Syrian Conflict
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“Arab Spring Or Arab Winter (Or Both)? Implications for U.S. Policy
www.pomed.org ♦ 1820 Jefferson Place NW, Suite 400 ♦ Washington, DC 20036 “Arab Spring or Arab Winter (or Both)? Implications for U.S. Policy” The Middle East Program Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW Tuesday July 19th, 9:30 a.m.-11:00 a.m. On Tuesday, the Middle East Program hosted an event at the Woodrow Wilson Center entitled “Arab Spring or Arab Winter (or Both)? Implications for U.S. Policy” featuring expert panelists: Marwan Muasher, Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Ellen Laipson, President and CEO of the Stimson Center; Rami G.Khouri, Director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut; and Aaron David Miller, Public Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center. Ellen Laipson asserted that the movement in the Middle East has surpassed a „season‟ and will prove to be an enduring and prevailing issue in global politics. She stated that overall, the movement was a “net positive for the region” although there is still unsettling uncertainty in the area. She also discussed a global transition that is taking place, where middle powers are rising and the U.S.‟ regional influences are diminishing. Also, she proposed the question of how the U.S. can initiate conversations with countries in the Middle East which haven‟t faced a revolutionary transition yet. Lastly, Laipson discussed how the U.S., as a part of the international community whole, can continue to promote democracy and institution-building in transitional governments. She noted that the security agenda mustn‟t be dismissed, and that security sector reform needs to be a part of the overall effort of the reform process. -
Syria and Repealing Decision 2011/782/CFSP
30.11.2012 EN Official Journal of the European Union L 330/21 DECISIONS COUNCIL DECISION 2012/739/CFSP of 29 November 2012 concerning restrictive measures against Syria and repealing Decision 2011/782/CFSP THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, internal repression or for the manufacture and maintenance of products which could be used for internal repression, to Syria by nationals of Member States or from the territories of Having regard to the Treaty on European Union, and in Member States or using their flag vessels or aircraft, shall be particular Article 29 thereof, prohibited, whether originating or not in their territories. Whereas: The Union shall take the necessary measures in order to determine the relevant items to be covered by this paragraph. (1) On 1 December 2011, the Council adopted Decision 2011/782/CFSP concerning restrictive measures against Syria ( 1 ). 3. It shall be prohibited to: (2) On the basis of a review of Decision 2011/782/CFSP, the (a) provide, directly or indirectly, technical assistance, brokering Council has concluded that the restrictive measures services or other services related to the items referred to in should be renewed until 1 March 2013. paragraphs 1 and 2 or related to the provision, manu facture, maintenance and use of such items, to any natural or legal person, entity or body in, or for use in, (3) Furthermore, it is necessary to update the list of persons Syria; and entities subject to restrictive measures as set out in Annex I to Decision 2011/782/CFSP. (b) provide, directly or indirectly, financing or financial assistance related to the items referred to in paragraphs 1 (4) For the sake of clarity, the measures imposed under and 2, including in particular grants, loans and export credit Decision 2011/273/CFSP should be integrated into a insurance, as well as insurance and reinsurance, for any sale, single legal instrument. -
Adaptation Strategies of Islamist Movements April 2017 Contents
POMEPS STUDIES 26 islam in a changing middle east Adaptation Strategies of Islamist Movements April 2017 Contents Understanding repression-adaptation nexus in Islamist movements . 4 Khalil al-Anani, Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, Qatar Why Exclusion and Repression of Moderate Islamists Will Be Counterproductive . 8 Jillian Schwedler, Hunter College, CUNY Islamists After the “Arab Spring”: What’s the Right Research Question and Comparison Group, and Why Does It Matter? . 12 Elizabeth R. Nugent, Princeton University The Islamist voter base during the Arab Spring: More ideology than protest? . .. 16 Eva Wegner, University College Dublin When Islamist Parties (and Women) Govern: Strategy, Authenticity and Women’s Representation . 21 Lindsay J. Benstead, Portland State University Exit, Voice, and Loyalty Under the Islamic State . 26 Mara Revkin, Yale University and Ariel I. Ahram, Virginia Tech The Muslim Brotherhood Between Party and Movement . 31 Steven Brooke, The University of Louisville A Government of the Opposition: How Moroccan Islamists’ Dual Role Contributes to their Electoral Success . 34 Quinn Mecham, Brigham Young University The Cost of Inclusion: Ennahda and Tunisia’s Political Transition . 39 Monica Marks, University of Oxford Regime Islam, State Islam, and Political Islam: The Past and Future Contest . 43 Nathan J. Brown, George Washington University Middle East regimes are using ‘moderate’ Islam to stay in power . 47 Annelle Sheline, George Washington University Reckoning with a Fractured Islamist Landscape in Yemen . 49 Stacey Philbrick Yadav, Hobart and William Smith Colleges The Lumpers and the Splitters: Two very different policy approaches on dealing with Islamism . 54 Marc Lynch, George Washington University The Project on Middle East Political Science The Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS) is a collaborative network that aims to increase the impact of political scientists specializing in the study of the Middle East in the public sphere and in the academic community . -
The Potential for an Assad Statelet in Syria
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ASSAD STATELET IN SYRIA Nicholas A. Heras THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ASSAD STATELET IN SYRIA Nicholas A. Heras policy focus 132 | december 2013 the washington institute for near east policy www.washingtoninstitute.org The opinions expressed in this Policy Focus are those of the author and not necessar- ily those of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors. MAPS Fig. 1 based on map designed by W.D. Langeraar of Michael Moran & Associates that incorporates data from National Geographic, Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, UNEP- WCMC, USGS, NASA, ESA, METI, NRCAN, GEBCO, NOAA, and iPC. Figs. 2, 3, and 4: detail from The Tourist Atlas of Syria, Syria Ministry of Tourism, Directorate of Tourist Relations, Damascus. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publica- tion may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2013 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050 Washington, DC 20036 Cover: Digitally rendered montage incorporating an interior photo of the tomb of Hafez al-Assad and a partial view of the wheel tapestry found in the Sheikh Daher Shrine—a 500-year-old Alawite place of worship situated in an ancient grove of wild oak; both are situated in al-Qurdaha, Syria. Photographs by Andrew Tabler/TWI; design and montage by 1000colors. -
What Does Syria Want?
What Does Syria Want? A Presentation by Raymond Hinnebusch for the Center for Naval Analyses and the ForumForum dudu FuturFutur (france) 1 A Presentation by Raymond Hinnebusch for the Center for Naval Analyses and the Forum Du Futur (France) The distinguished American academic Raymond Hinnebusch, Director of the Centre for Syrian Studies and Professor of International Relations and Middle East Politics at the University of St. Andrews (UK), recently spoke at a France/U.S. dialogue in Paris co-sponsored by CNA and the Forum du Futur. Dr. Hinnebusch agreed to update his very thoughtful and salient presentation, “What Does Syria Want?” so that we might make it avail- able to a wider audience. The views expressed are his own and constitute an assessment of Syrian strategic think- ing. Raymond Hinnebusch may be contacted via e-mail at: [email protected] (Shown on the cover): A double portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (left) and his father (right), Hafez al-Assad, who was President of Syria from 1971-2000. 2 What Does Syria Want? the country and ideology of the ruling Ba’th party, is a direct consequence of this experience. By Raymond Hinnebusch Centre for Syrian Studies, “Syria is imbued with a powerful sense University of St. Andrews, (UK) of grievance from the history of its formation as a state.” With French President Nicholas Sarkozy’s invitation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Paris in July, More than that, from its long disillusioning experience 2008, the question of whether Syria is “serious” about with the West, Syria has a profoundly jaundiced view changing its ways and entitled to rehabilitation by the of contemporary international order, recently much re- international community, has become a matter of some inforced, which it sees as replete with double standards. -
Omar-Ashour-English.Pdf
CENTER ON DEMOCRACY, DEVELOPMENT, AND THE RULE OF LAW STANFORD UNIVERSITY BROOKINGS DOHA CENTER - STANFORD PROJECT ON ARAB TRANSITIONS PAPER SERIES Number 3, November 2012 FROM BAD COP TO GOOD COP: THE CHALLENGE OF SECURITY SECTOR REFORM IN EGYPT OMAR ASHOUR PROGRAM ON ARAB REFORM AND DEMOCRACY, CDDRL FROM BAD COP TO GOOD COP: THE CHALLENGE OF SECURITY SECTOR REFORM IN EGYPT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY gence within the police force of a cadre of reform- ist officers is also encouraging and may help shift Successful democratic transitions hinge on the the balance of power within the Ministry of Interi- establishment of effective civilian control of the or. These officers have established reformist orga- armed forces and internal security institutions. The nizations, such as the General Coalition of Police transformation of these institutions from instru- Officers and Officers But Honorable, and begun to ments of brutal repression and regime protection push for SSR themselves. The prospects for imple- to professional, regulated, national services – secu- menting these civil society and internal initiatives, rity sector reform (SSR) – is at the very center of however, remain uncertain; they focus on admira- this effort. In Egypt, as in other transitioning Arab ble ends but are less clear on the means of imple- states and prior cases of democratization, SSR is mentation. They also have to reckon with strong an acutely political process affected by an array of elements within the Ministry of Interior – “al-Ad- different actors and dynamics. In a contested and ly’s men” (in reference to Mubarak’s longstanding unstable post-revolutionary political sphere, the minister) – who remain firmly opposed to reform. -
Torture Methods the Syrian Regime Continues to Practice in Its Detention Centers and Military Hospitals
Documentation of 72 Torture Methods the Syrian Regime Continues to Practice in Its Detention Centers and Military Hospitals Identifying 801 Individuals Who Appeared in Caesar Photographs, the US Congress Must Pass the Caesar Act to Provide Accountability Monday, October 21, 2019 1 snhr [email protected] www.sn4hr.org R190912 The Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), founded in June 2011, is a non-governmental, independent group that is considered a primary source for the OHCHR on all death toll-related analyses in Syria. Contents I. Introduction and methodology of the report II. The Syrian Network for Human Rights’ cooperation with the UN Rapporteur on deaths due to Torture III. The toll of victims who died due to torture according to the SNHR’s database IV. The most notable methods of torture in the Syrian regime’s detention centers Physical torture Health neglect, conditions of detention and deprivation Sexual violence Psychological torture and humiliation of human dignity Forced labor Torture in military hospitals Separation V. New identification of 29 individuals who appeared in Caesar photographs leaked from military hospitals VI. Examples of individuals shown in Caesar photographs who we were able to identify VII. Various testimonies of torture incidents by survivors of the Syrian regime’s detention centers VIII. The most notable individuals responsible for torture in the Syrian regime’s detention centers according to the SNHR’s database IX. Conclusions and recommendations 1 snhr [email protected] www.sn4hr.org I. Introduction and methodology of the report: Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have been subjected to abduction (detention) by Syrian Regime forces; according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights’ (SNHR) database, at least 130,000 individuals are still detained or forcibly disappeared by the Syrian regime since the start of the popular uprising for democracy in Syria in March 2011. -
The Political Economy of the New Egyptian Republic
ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ Hopkins The Political Economy of اﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻰ the New Egyptian Republic ﻟﻠﺠﻤﻬﻮرﻳﺔ اﳉﺪﻳﺪة ﻓﻰ ﻣﺼﺮ The Political Economy of the New Egyptian of the New Republic Economy The Political Edited by ﲢﺮﻳﺮ Nicholas S. Hopkins ﻧﻴﻜﻮﻻس ﻫﻮﺑﻜﻨﺰ Contributors اﳌﺸﺎرﻛﻮن Deena Abdelmonem Zeinab Abul-Magd زﻳﻨﺐ أﺑﻮ اﻟﺪ دﻳﻨﺎ ﻋﺒﺪ اﳌﻨﻌﻢ Yasmine Ahmed Sandrine Gamblin ﺳﺎﻧﺪرﻳﻦ ﺟﺎﻣﺒﻼن ﻳﺎﺳﻤﲔ أﺣﻤﺪ Ellis Goldberg Clement M. Henry ﻛﻠﻴﻤﻨﺖ ﻫﻨﺮى إﻟﻴﺲ ﺟﻮﻟﺪﺑﻴﺮج SOCIAL SCIENCE IN CAIRO PAPERS Dina Makram-Ebeid Hans Christian Korsholm Nielsen ﻫﺎﻧﺰ ﻛﺮﻳﺴﺘﻴﺎن ﻛﻮرﺷﻠﻢ ﻧﻴﻠﺴﻦ دﻳﻨﺎ ﻣﻜﺮم ﻋﺒﻴﺪ David Sims دﻳﭭﻴﺪ ﺳﻴﻤﺰ Volume ﻣﺠﻠﺪ 33 ٣٣ Number ﻋﺪد 4 ٤ ﻟﻘﺪ اﺛﺒﺘﺖ ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة ﻓﻰ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ أﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﻨﻬﻞ ﻻ ﻏﻨﻰ ﻋﻨﻪ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎرئ اﻟﻌﺎدى واﳌﺘﺨﺼﺺ ﻓﻰ ﺷﺌﻮن CAIRO PAPERS IN SOCIAL SCIENCE is a valuable resource for Middle East specialists اﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ. وﺗﻌﺮض ﻫﺬه اﻟﻜﺘﻴﺒﺎت اﻟﺮﺑﻊ ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺔ - اﻟﺘﻰ ﺗﺼﺪر ﻣﻨﺬ ﻋﺎم ١٩٧٧ - ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺒﺤﻮث اﻟﺘﻰ ﻗﺎم ﺑﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﺣﺜﻮن and non-specialists. Published quarterly since 1977, these monographs present the results of ﻣﺤﻠﻴﻮن وزاﺋﺮون ﻓﻰ ﻣﺠﺎﻻت ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﳌﻮﺿﻮﻋﺎت اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ واﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ واﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ واﻟﺘﺎرﻳﺨﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮق اﻷوﺳﻂ. ,current research on a wide range of social, economic, and political issues in the Middle East وﺗﺮﺣﺐ ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ﲢﺮﻳﺮ ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﻻت اﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﻬﺬه اﻟﺎﻻت ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺮ ﻓﻰ ﻣﺪى ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ. وﻳﺮاﻋﻰ ان ﻳﻜﻮن اﻟﺒﺤﺚ .and include historical perspectives ﻓﻰ ﺣﺪود ١٥٠ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺗﺮك ﻣﺴﺎﻓﺘﲔ ﺑﲔ اﻟﺴﻄﻮر، وﺗﺴﻠﻢ ﻣﻨﻪ ﻧﺴﺨﺔ ﻣﻄﺒﻮﻋﺔ وأﺧﺮى ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﻄﻮاﻧﺔ ﻛﻤﺒﻴﻮﺗﺮ (ﻣﺎﻛﻨﺘﻮش Submissions of studies relevant to these areas are invited. Manuscripts submitted should be أو ﻣﻴﻜﺮوﺳﻮﻓﺖ وورد). أﻣﺎ ﺑﺨﺼﻮص ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ اﳌﺮاﺟﻊ، ﻓﻴﺠﺐ ان ﺗﺘﻮاﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﳌﺘﻔﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻰ ﻛﺘﺎب ”اﻻﺳﻠﻮب ﳉﺎﻣﻌﺔ around 150 doublespaced typewritten pages in hard copy and on disk (Macintosh or Microsoft ﺷﻴﻜﺎﻏﻮ“ (The Chicago Manual of Style) ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻜﻮن اﻟﻬﻮاﻣﺶ ﻓﻰ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻛﻞ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ، أو اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﳌﺘﻔﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻰ Word). -
Reforming the Syrian Arab Army: Russia’S Vision Yury Barmin, RIAC
Discussion Paper (4) Reforming the Syrian Arab Army: Russia’s vision Yury Barmin, RIAC Discussion paper for the workshop on: “The emerging security dynamics and the political settlement in Syria”, Syracuse, Italy, 18-19 October 2018 1 The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) is an international foundation established in 1995, with 52-member states, for the primary purpose of promoting peace, security and international cooperation through executive education, applied policy research and dialogue. The GCSP trains government officials, diplomats, military officers, international civil servants and NGO and private sector staff in pertinent fields of international peace and security. Omran for Strategic Studies An independent think tank and policy centre focusing on presenting an objective understanding of Syria and the region to become a reference for public policies impacting the region. Omran began in November 2013 in Istanbul, Turkey. It publishes studies and policy briefs on Syrian and regional affairs in the areas of politics, economic development and local administration. Omran also conducts round-table discussions, seminars and workshops that promote a more systematic and methodical culture of decision making among the future leaders of Syria. Omran’s work supports decision-making mechanisms, provides practical solutions and policy recommendations to decision-makers, identifies challenges within the Syrian context, and foresees scenarios and alternative solutions. Yury Barmin Yury Barmin, is the Director for the Middle East and North Africa at MPG, a Moscow-based political consulting firm. He is a fellow at the Russian International Affairs Council covering the Middle East and North Africa, Moscow’s policy towards the region as well as the conflict in Syria. -
Russia’S Presence Eldin Inthe the Military Fi That October, Russia Dispatched Two Tu-160 Strategic Middle East and Africa Has Been Growing
Part 1 Security Environment Surrounding Japan Section 4 Russia ❶ General Situation ● President Vladimir Putin, who has been seeking the revival sanctions—has emerged among some of the countries with of Russia as a strong and infl uential power, successfully a close economic relationship to Russia. On the other hand, achieved reelection in 2018. In his inaugural address in May Russia’s ability to withstand sanctions has been growing, of that same year, President Putin stated that Russia is a as it has promoted import substitution, while on the foreign strong, active and infl uential participant in international life, policy front, President Vladimir Putin has taken the stance and that the country’s security and defense capability are that “there are other organizations which play an important Chapter reliably secured. He also stated that quality of life, wellbeing, role in world affairs” and the country has been demonstrating 2 security and health were his main goals, and that Russia has a growing presence in the G20 and multilateral diplomatic risen like a phoenix a number of times throughout history, forums in which Western countries do not participate, such Defense Policies of Countries Defense Policies and believes it would achieve a breakthrough again. as the SCO and the association of fi ve major emerging At the annual presidential address to the Federal economies (BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Assembly of Russia in March of that same year, held prior to Africa). the presidential election, President Putin said, “Russia ranks In addition, Russia’s presence in the military fi eld in the among the world’s leading nations with a powerful foreign Middle East and Africa has been growing. -
I. the Middle East and North Africa: 2016 in Perspective Dan Smith
armed conflict and instability in the middle east 75 I. The Middle East and North Africa: 2016 in perspective dan smith Introduction The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remained at the heart of global security concerns throughout 2016. Events in the region continued to have a major impact on neighbouring areas and on the world stage, while the influence and actions of outside powers in turn had a crucial impact on the region. Because of its strategic location and natural resource wealth in oil and gas, it is an arena in which external powers compete for power, both directly and through local alliances. The region’s strategic significance for world peace and security thus remains as great and as troubling as ever. No single factor can explain its seemingly chronic insecurity and persistent susceptibility to armed conflict. A variety of factors need to be understood and addressed to help the region achieve greater stability and security for its people. These factors include governance failures in most Arab countries and the anger and resentment this has provoked, which led to a surge of popu- lar mobilizations in 2011 that at the time seemed set to transform the Arab world. Other factors relate to the still-unfolding consequences of the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the United States-led coalition and the complex relations and rivalries between regional powers, most notably between Iran and Saudi Arabia. There is also an increasing tendency for the regional powers to intervene in the affairs of other countries in the region. In 2016 at least 7 of the 16 countries in the region used military force in combat on their own territory, and 11 on the territory of other countries (see table 3.1). -
Egypt: a Moment of Change and Challenge | the Washington Institute
MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 1754 Egypt: A Moment of Change and Challenge by J. Scott Carpenter, David Schenker Feb 7, 2011 ABOUT THE AUTHORS J. Scott Carpenter J. Scott Carpenter is an adjunct fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. David Schenker David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs. Brief Analysis n February 2, 2011, J. Scott Carpenter, Dina Guirguis, David Schenker, and Robert Satloff addressed a special O Policy Forum luncheon at The Washington Institute. Mr. Carpenter is the Institute's Keston Family fellow and director of Project Fikra: Defeating Extremism through the Power of Ideas. Ms. Guirguis is a Keston Family research fellow with Project Fikra. Mr. Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks; Dr. Satloff's remarks were published separately as PolicyWatch #1751. Watch this event at C-Span.org J. Scott Carpenter P lacing Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution and Egypt's current unrest into historical context is important when discussing broader transition in the Middle East. In the 1990s, a phenomenon known as the Third Wave swept across Central and Eastern Europe, promoting democratic political transition throughout the former Soviet Union, Africa, and Latin America. The Middle East was notably absent from this global transformation. After the September 11 attacks, members of the Bush administration began asking why this political opening had failed to occur in the region. Many argued that such a transformation was simply impossible in Arab lands, but President Bush called these claims "the soft bigotry of low expectations." Today, many are asking whether this is truly a revolutionary moment in Egypt, one that might usher in an Islamist, theocratic takeover of a broad-based political movement.