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“ or Arab Winter (or Both)? Implications for U.S. Policy” The Middle East Program Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW Tuesday July 19th, 9:30 a.m.-11:00 a.m.

On Tuesday, the Middle East Program hosted an event at the Woodrow Wilson Center entitled “Arab Spring or Arab Winter (or Both)? Implications for U.S. Policy” featuring expert panelists: Marwan Muasher, Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Ellen Laipson, President and CEO of the Stimson Center; Rami G.Khouri, Director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut; and Aaron David Miller, Public Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center.

Ellen Laipson asserted that the movement in the Middle East has surpassed a „season‟ and will prove to be an enduring and prevailing issue in global politics. She stated that overall, the movement was a “net positive for the region” although there is still unsettling uncertainty in the area. She also discussed a global transition that is taking place, where middle powers are rising and the U.S.‟ regional influences are diminishing. Also, she proposed the question of how the U.S. can initiate conversations with countries in the Middle East which haven‟t faced a revolutionary transition yet. Lastly, Laipson discussed how the U.S., as a part of the international community whole, can continue to promote democracy and institution-building in transitional governments. She noted that the security agenda mustn‟t be dismissed, and that security sector reform needs to be a part of the overall effort of the reform process.

Rami Khouri asserted that the current movement is “the most important moment in the Arab world” because “individual men and women are using their power to demand and get what they believe are their rights as citizens.” Khouri said that there are two visible trends developing in the Middle East as a result of the revolutions: collective Arab citizenry and „real politics‟. Collective citizenry in Arab countries like and has allowed individuals to participate in a constant give-and-take to reconfigure power structures. „Real politics‟ protects the rights of individuals as well as allows the community to participate in the public arena and figure out what role they (can) play in a legitimate government system. Khouri said that this process has transformed the commoner from a „humiliated citizen‟ to a legitimate partaker of civil affairs. Lastly, Khouri emphasized that the U.S. should uphold a strong position and continue to “behave democratically”.

Marwan Muasher stated that he thinks the “process will go on for decades and will surpass all seasons; [the U.S] must remember that these are countries with no serious opposition, no economic models, and no real revolutionary leaders.” Additionally, Muasher added, is prevalent in many Arab countries because the people don‟t have an acceptable, reliable option in contrast to what Islamists can offer. “In an open, pluralistic system, the Islamists probably won‟t have the same popularity that they have seen in recent months,” he commented. According to Muasher, it is of utmost importance how the U.S. and other supporting countries go about enforcing reform efforts, ensuring that the process leads to redistribution of power. He concluded by noting that U.S. policy over

www.pomed.org ♦ 1820 Jefferson Place NW, Suite 400 ♦ Washington, DC 20036 the past few decades have prioritized stability rather than the actual reform effort, and that instead, the U.S. “needs to refocus and enforce stability while embracing reform.”

Aaron Miller concluded the discussion by noting the magnitude of the revolts unfolding the Middle East, saying that the transformative events have resulted in “greater accountability and responsibility, greater human rights…and a new degree of authenticity and genuine ownership” that makes the changes more legitimate. He addressed two problems that he can see in the formidable future: state-run and historic institutions are very well-organized and can potentially crowd out other new, prospective institutions that are trying to integrate into the reform efforts (he used the example of how the military and the influences politics in Egypt). Additionally, he noted, less-organized institutions (such as those in , and Yemen) may have to reinvent themselves to garner more legitimacy, a process that could take months or years.

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