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CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND Purchase this document TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Defense Research Institute View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Democratization in the in Democratization Arab World Daunting challenges lie ahead for Arab countries where revolutions upended longstanding authoritarian regimes in 2011. These unexpected events created new uncertainties in a troubled region: Would the Arab Spring lead to a flowering of democracy? Would loosening of the political systems in these countries unleash dangerous forces of extremism or ethno-sectarian conflict? Would new autocrats replace the old ones? Through a comparative analysis of past democratization experiences throughout the world over nearly four decades and a comprehensive look at recent uprisings in the Arab world, Democratization in the Arab World aims to help policymakers understand the challenges ahead, form well-founded expectations, shape diplomatic approaches, and take practical steps to foster positive change. The monograph explores the conditions and decisions that are most likely to influence whether democratization succeeds in Arab countries undergoing political transitions. It identifies the main challenges to democratization in these countries; analyzes how countries in Europe, Latin America, Asia, and Africa have dealt with similar challenges in the past; and suggests what the United States and broader international community can do to help strengthen fledgling democracies in the Arab world. “Democratization in the Arab World is both a valuable contribution to the literature on transition and an essential guide for understanding the Arab Spring. While fully recognizing the immense challenges that lie ahead, it argues convincingly for a policy of sustained yet prudent support for the process of democratic transformation that is now only beginning to unfold.” —Carl Gershman, Democratization in President of the National Endowment for Democracy “Democratization in the Arab World is an excellent book that fills a need for concise profiles of democratic transitions and the lessons that can be drawn from them. It the Arab World breaks new ground in very deliberately, thoughtfully, and parsimoniously applying the lessons of theory and experience to the transition processes underway in the Arab world. This book has both academic integrity and great practical value.” Miller et al. Miller Prospects and Lessons from —Larry Diamond, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy Around the Globe Laurel E. Miller, Jeffrey Martini, F. Stephen Larrabee, OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. C O R P O R A T I O N EFFECTIVE SOLUTIONS. Angel Rabasa, Stephanie Pezard, Julie E. Taylor, $44.95 Tewodaj Mengistu RAND publications are available at www.rand.org This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research R findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE MG-1192-RC Democratization in the Arab World Prospects and Lessons from Around the Globe Laurel E. Miller, Jeffrey Martini, F. Stephen Larrabee, Angel Rabasa, Stephanie Pezard, Julie E. Taylor, Tewodaj Mengistu Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE This monograph results from the RAND Corporation’s continuing program of self-initiated research. Support for such research is provided, in part, by donors and by the independent research and development provisions of RAND’s contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Democratization in the Arab world : prospects and lessons from around the globe / Laurel E. Miller ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-7207-8 (pbk. : alk. paper)r) 1. Democratization —Arab countries. 2. Democracy—Arab countries. 3. Arab countries—Politics and government. I. Miller, Laurel (Laurel E.) JQ1850.A91D47 2012 320.917'4927—dc23 2012028225 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover: An Egyptian election official counts the ballots following the presidential election in Cairo, May 24, 2012 (AP Photo/Fredrik Persson). © Copyright 2012 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2012 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface The hopes and drama of the Arab Spring captured the world’s attention early in 2011. As events unfolded during that year and into 2012, it quickly became clear that daunting challenges lie ahead for postrevolu- tionary Egypt and Tunisia and for other Arab countries that might also experience regime change. In this volume, we explore the conditions and decisions that are most likely to influence the success of democra- tization in countries undergoing political transitions. We identify the main challenges to democratization in the Arab world; analyze how other countries around the world that transitioned from autocracies have overcome or failed to overcome similar challenges; and suggest what the United States and the broader international community can do to help transitioning countries strengthen their fledgling democra- cies. The results are intended to be useful to policymakers seeking to understand the challenges ahead, shape diplomatic approaches to the region, and take practical steps to foster positive change. This study is a product of the RAND Corporation’s continu- ing program of self-initiated independent research. Support for such research is provided, in part, by donors and by the independent research and development provisions of RAND’s contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and devel- opment centers. This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, iii iv Democratization in the Arab World the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. xi Tables ............................................................................. xiii Summary .......................................................................... xv Acknowledgments .............................................................. liii Abbreviations ..................................................................... lv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ......................................................................
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