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Revolution and International Tension by Alireza Nouri a Thesis in The Revolution and International Tension By Alireza Nouri A Thesis in The Department of Political Science Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts (Political Science) at Concordia University Montreal, Quebec, Canada October 2019 © Alireza Nouri, 2019 Concordia University School of Graduate Studies This is to certify that the thesis prepared By: Alireza Nouri Entitled: Revolution and International Tension And submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts (Political Science) Complies with the regulations of the University and meets the accepted standards with respect to originality and quality. Signed by the final examining committee: ____________________________ Chair Dr. James Kelly ____________________________ Examiner Dr. Tina Hilgers ____________________________ Supervisor Dr. Julian Schofield Approved by _________________________________________ Dr. James Kelly, Graduate Program Director October 29, 2019 ________________________________________________ Dr. André Roy, Dean of Faculty of Arts and Science ii Abstract Revolution and International Tension Alireza Nouri Revolutions have a tremendous impact on international relations, yet the relationship between the two has not been studied sufficiently. This thesis attempts to shed light on this issue. It explores the weaknesses in the pre-existing literature and recommends a new approach and mechanism on how revolutions cause international tension. Through the study, a revamped definition and categorization of revolution is offered for a better understanding of the revolution. The proposition is that revolutions that affect the balance of threat significantly or have social revolution characteristics, and inflict considerable misery to a country are likely to generate significant tension with other countries and, ultimately, war. Sixty revolutions are examined both quantitatively (by an OLS regression) and qualitatively to test the hypothesis. The regression illustrates that the model has substantial correlation value and the qualitative study of the sixty cases, confirm the quantitative findings more in-depth. iii Acknowledgments To my supervisors, examining committee, family, and friends who have supported me through this process, as without their guidance and support, this would not have been possible. iv Contents Chapter 1 : Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 1 Literature Review ......................................................................................................................... 3 Chapter 2 : Research Design .................................................................................................................... 26 2.1. Unit of Analysis: ............................................................................................................ 26 2.2. Dependent Variable: ..................................................................................................... 28 2.3. Independent Variables .................................................................................................. 30 2.4. Quantitative Model Procedure: ................................................................................... 34 2.5. Discussions: .................................................................................................................... 37 Qualitative Section/Case Studies: ............................................................................................................ 40 Chapter 3 : Mass Revolutions .................................................................................................................. 42 3.1. Violent Revolutions: ........................................................................................................... 42 3.1.1. French Revolution of 1789 ..................................................................................................... 42 3.1.2. French Revolution of 1830 ..................................................................................................... 47 3.1.3. French Revolution of 1848 ..................................................................................................... 50 3.1.4. Iran Constitutional Revolution of 1905 ................................................................................. 53 3.1.5. Mexican Revolution, 1910-1920 ............................................................................................. 57 3.1.6. Chinese National (Xinhai) Revolution of 1911 ..................................................................... 60 3.1.7. Russian Revolution of 1917 .................................................................................................... 63 3.1.8. Finnish Revolution 1918 ......................................................................................................... 66 3.1.10. Chinese Civil War 1927-1937 ............................................................................................... 67 3.1.11. Chinese Revolution 1946-1949 ............................................................................................. 69 3.1.12. Spanish Revolution 1936-1939 ............................................................................................. 79 3.1.13. Bolivian 1952 Revolution: .................................................................................................... 84 3.1.14. Iranian Revolution, 1979 ...................................................................................................... 85 3.1.15. The Algerian Civil War, 1992-1998 ..................................................................................... 87 v 3.1.16. Tajik Civil War, 1992-1997 .................................................................................................. 89 3.1.17. Kyrgyzstan Revolution, 2010 ............................................................................................... 91 3.1.18. The Arab Spring, 2011 .......................................................................................................... 93 3.1.19. Ukraine Euromaidan Revolution, 2014............................................................................. 105 Remarks: .......................................................................................................................................... 109 3.2. Peaceful Revolutions: ........................................................................................................ 110 3.2.1. 1820 Revolutions: Spanish Trienio Liberal and Portuguese Liberal Revolution ........... 112 3.2.2. Portugal 1910 republican revolution:................................................................................ 115 3.2.3. The Carnation Revolution (1974): ..................................................................................... 116 3.2.4. Philippine Revolution of 1986 ............................................................................................. 117 3.2.5. 1989 Revolutions in Eastern Europe: ................................................................................ 118 3.2.6. Color Revolutions in the Post-Communist States: Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia .............................................................................................................. 128 Remarks: .......................................................................................................................................... 130 Chapter 4 : Elite Revolutions:................................................................................................................ 132 4.1. Coup d’états ..................................................................................................................... 132 4.1.1. Ottoman 1908 Young Turks Revolution: .......................................................................... 132 4.1.2. Egyptian Revolution, 1952: ................................................................................................ 135 4.1.3. Iraqi 14 July Revolution: .................................................................................................... 136 4.1.4. North Yemen Civil War: .................................................................................................... 138 4.1.5. Somalian 1969 Coup: .......................................................................................................... 139 4.1.5. French Upper Volta 1983 Coup: ........................................................................................ 140 Remarks: .......................................................................................................................................... 141 4.2. Popular Coup d’états ....................................................................................................... 141 4.2.1. Dominican Republic Revolution 1965 (April-September): ............................................. 142 4.2.2. Ethiopian Revolution and Civil War (1974-1991): .......................................................... 143 4.2.3. Saur Revolution (1978) ....................................................................................................... 145 vi Remarks: .......................................................................................................................................... 149 Chapter 5 : Guerrilla Revolutions ........................................................................................................
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