The Foreign Policy of the Arab Gulf Monarchies from 1971 to 1990
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The Foreign Policy of the Arab Gulf Monarchies from 1971 to 1990 Submitted by René Rieger to the University of Exeter as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Middle East Politics in June 2013 This thesis is available for Library use on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. I certify that all material in this thesis which is not my own work has been identified and that no material has previously been submitted and approved for the award of a degree by this or any other University. Signature: ………… ………… 2 ABSTRACT This dissertation provides a comparative analysis of the foreign policies of the Arab Gulf monarchies during the period of 1971 to 1990, as examined through two case studies: (1) the Arab Gulf monarchies’ relations with Iran and Iraq and (2) the six states’ positions in the Arab-Israeli conflict. The dissertation argues that, in formulating their policies towards Iran and Iraq, the Arab Gulf monarchies aspired to realize four main objectives: external security and territorial integrity; domestic and regime stability; economic prosperity; and the attainment of a stable subregional balance of power without the emergence of Iran or Iraq as Gulf hegemon. Over the largest part of the period under review, the Arab Gulf monarchies managed to offset threats to these basic interests emanating from Iran and Iraq by alternately appeasing and balancing the source of the threat. The analysis reveals that the Arab Gulf monarchies’ individual bilateral relations with Iran and Iraq underwent considerable change over time and, particularly following the Iranian Revolution, displayed significant differences in comparison to one another. These developments are attributable to both disparities among Arab Gulf monarchies and change over time with respect to a variety of factors: geostrategic position, military strength, the existence of military aggression, territorial claims, subversive activities, or ideological challenges by either Iran or Iraq, the national and sectarian composition and ideological orientation of the population, and national economic orientation. The thesis reveals that the Arab Gulf monarchies’ policies in the Arab-Israeli conflict were mainly influenced by (1) identity/ideology, (2) religion, and (3) strategic considerations. In consequence, during the entire period under review, all Arab Gulf monarchies, although setting different priorities, shared an objective in the realization of following interests: the realization of Palestinian national rights, the return of occupied Arab lands, and the restoration of Muslim control over the holy places in Jerusalem; the guarantee of regime stability; the preservation of strategic relations with the United States; the containment of Soviet penetration into the Arab world; the maintenance of Arab unity dominated by moderate Arab forces; and the attainment of a holistic peace settlement supported by an Arab consensus. The analysis shows that the Arab Gulf monarchies succeeded in realizing most of these objectives. In addition, 3 the thesis highlights a significant rapprochement in the Arab Gulf monarchies’ individual policies in the Arab-Israeli conflict, a development most visible in the 1980s. The dissertation identifies the Arab Gulf monarchies as a unit of state and regime entities with broadly similar interests and challenges and, despite a striking power disparity among themselves, inferiority in power status compared with and vulnerability to their neighbours. The similarity of both their objectives and constraints motivated and even required them to cooperate and coordinate in the foreign policy arena. As the analysis demonstrates, this cooperation and coordination increased during the timeframe under review, even when individual foreign policies diverged. 4 To Julia 5 6 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I should like to express my deepest gratitude to several individuals without whose great help and support the completion of this dissertation would not have been possible. My thanks go to Prof. Dr. Martin Geyer, Professor of Modern and Contemporary History at Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich, for encouraging me to pursue a doctorate and guiding me in the early phase of my dissertational work. I owe particular thanks to Prof. Gerd Nonneman, former Al-Qasimi Chair in Gulf studies at the University of Exeter, for the great confidence he put in me, one and a half years of exceptional supervision, and his continuing support after his departure for Doha. My great gratitude goes to Prof. Tim Niblock, Professor Emeritus at the University of Exeter’s Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies, for his excellent supervision during the last one and a half years of my dissertation, his outstanding guidance and support, and his great kindness. I shall also like to thank Prof. Gene R. Garthwaite, Professor Emeritus of History at Dartmouth College, for all the advice and support he granted me years after I had the privilege to be his student. My explicit thanks go to my dear friend Ashwan Reddy for his efforts in drawing the brilliant maps that greatly enrich this dissertation. I am especially grateful to my parents. Without their constant support over the past three decades, I would not be where I am today. Last but not least, my indefinite gratitude is owed to Julia, for her unconditional love, her unfailing support, and her patience during the seemingly never-ending final phase of my dissertation work. 7 8 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................... 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS....................................................................................... 7 TABLE OF CONTENTS ....................................................................................... 9 List of Abbreviations ........................................................................................... 11 1. Introduction and Conceptual Framework................................................. 13 1.1 Background...................................................................................13 1.2 Rationale, Research Puzzle, and Scope ....................................... 17 1.3 Literature Review........................................................................... 21 1.4 Primary Source Material and Research Methods .......................... 28 1.5 Foreign Policy Analysis ................................................................. 32 2. The Arab Gulf Monarchies in 1971: Interests, Options, and Challenges............................................................................................... 47 2.1 The Global International System, the Middle East, and the Gulf in 1971 ................................................................................... 49 2.2 The Arab Gulf Monarchies in 1971: Material Capabilities.............. 55 2.3 The Arab Gulf Monarchies in 1971: The Domestic Realm............. 67 2.4 The Arab Gulf Monarchies in 1971: Foreign Policy Interests......... 85 2.5 The Arab Gulf Monarchies in 1971: Non-Material Capabilities and Weaknesses.......................................................87 2.6 Overview of Key Domestic and Environmental Changes, 1971-1990 ..................................................................................... 88 3. The Relationship of the Arab Gulf Monarchies with Iran and Iraq, 1971-1990 ............................................................................................... 95 3.1 The Pre-1971 Era.......................................................................... 96 3.2 From the British Withdrawal to the Algiers Accord....................... 133 3.3 From the Algiers Accord to the Iranian Revolution ...................... 162 3.4 From the Iranian Revolution to the End of the Iran-Iraq War ....... 186 3.5 From the End of the Iran-Iraq War to the Invasion of Kuwait....... 239 3.6 Chapter Conclusion ..................................................................... 253 4. The Position of the Arab Gulf Monarchies in the Arab-Israeli Conflict, 1971-1990................................................................................ 263 4.1 The Pre-1971 Era........................................................................ 267 4.2 Britain’s Withdrawal, the October War, and the Use of the Oil Weapon.................................................................................. 290 9 4.3 Camp David and Egypt’s Expulsion from the Arab League ......... 319 4.4 The Fahd Plan and Egypt’s Return to the Arab Fold ................... 344 4.5 The First Intifada and Oman’s Change of Policy ......................... 359 4.6 Chapter Conclusion ..................................................................... 363 5. General Conclusion and Outlook........................................................... 367 APPENDIX.......................................................................................................375 Map 1: The Arab Gulf Monarchies in 1971 ............................................ 375 Map 2: The Arab Gulf Monarchies in 1990 ............................................ 376 Map 3: Giant Oil Fields in the Gulf......................................................... 377 Map 4: Warba and Bubiyan Island......................................................... 378 Map 5: Abu Musa and the Tunb Islands ................................................ 378 Permission for Use of Third Party Copyright Material...........................