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11 July 2016 DAILY SUMMARY – 11 JULY 2016 1. Increasingly likely false reports of a coordinated attack north and west of Mosul 2. Three rockets fired towards Provincial Council building in Zummar 3. Targeting of civilians leaves five dead and two wounded in Kirkuk 4. Multiple Coalition and Iraqi airstrikes reported in western Anbar 5. Demonstrations conducted in east Baghdad concerning Karada attack 6. Gunmen shot and wounded a local Mukhtar in northern Babel Iraq-wide: The US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, and the Canadian Defense Minister Harjit Sajjan, arrived for an unannounced visit to the capital. Meetings were conducted with Prime Minister Abadi as well as Iraq’s Minister of Defense amongst other government leaders. The operation to seize the Qayyarah Airbase as a key support base for Mosul oriented operations was praised. During this visit it was also announced another 560 US servicemen would be deployed to Iraq as part of Mosul oriented operations discussed below, bringing the total number of authorized US permanent personnel up to 4,647. Lt. Gen. Stephen J. Townsend will reportedly take command of Operation Inherent Resolve forces in either August or September, and will replace Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland. Following the previously discussed resignation of the Minister of Interior, Badr Organization member Mohammed Salem al-Ghabban, Prime Minister Abadi assigned Aqil al-Khazali as the acting minister according to a Ministry of Interior statement. Later on 11 July, Badr Organization claimed Prime Minister Abadi instructed Minister of Communications Hassan Rashed as the acting Minister of Interior, and stated it did not see a need to replace Ghabban. Khazali currently serves as the Ministry’s administrative and financial head, forming a natural approach to avoid disrupting the functioning of the Ministry until a permanent replacement can be selected. The conflicting Badr Organization statement is interesting, as is their calls for Ghabban to retain his position. This detracts from the authenticity of Ghabban’s initially stated resignation request in accordance with previously discussed assessments of political maneuvering aimed at increasing the power of the Badr controlled ministry. It will remain important to monitor these developments as Badr Organization seeks to maintain control over this key security ministry. North: On Sunday evening officials of the Change Movement (Gorran) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) announced in a joint press conference that the two parties will merge to form a united political party under the PUK. The union will solidify political cooperation and mutual interest in the Council of Representatives as well as the Provincial Councils, with hopes of resolving the current political issues and improving conditions in the best interest of the region. The announcement comes two months after a bilateral agreement between Gorran and the PUK. With this alliance the new PUK will now hold a majority within the KRG Parliament, though strengthening of Gorran-PUK relations has thus far failed in its aspirations of forcing KDP to the negotiation table. On 11 July Dohuk officials discussed further plans for establishing five IDP camps in Dohuk province in anticipation of the influx of IDPs due to the Mosul offensive. The camps are to be situated within disputed territory related to Article 140, with the nearest of these sites approximately 20km from Dohuk City. The decision to place the camps in disputed territory will primarily allow the KRG to oversee their establishment with less long-term responsibility for the care of the displaced. Positioning IDPs on the outskirts of the province will also aid in mitigation efforts to limit IS infiltration from within IDP populations. CONFIDENTIAL – FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 2 of 6 Additional investigation of initially reported coordinated IS attacks west and north of Mosul, have yet to be corroborated or further discussed by media outlets or other sources. While it remains possible that these events are simply seeing delays in reporting, given the time delay, it is becoming increasingly likely that the account is in fact entirely false reporting and may well have originated with IS-affiliated sources seeking to boast an offensive in response to losses in Qayyarah. Even with misreporting however, the vast majority of accounts are based in some element of truth, with additional investigation taking place. However, it remains important to stress that current assessments as of the time of writing suggest a misreported or falsely reported event. As part of the above mentioned announcement by US Secretary of State Ashton Carter an additional 560 US troops would be deployed to Iraq, the bulk of these personnel are slated to prepare and then occupy the Qayyarah Airbase. The forces slated for arrival include engineers, security, communications and logistics personnel as well as other forces. As part of preparations, US military personnel visited Qayyarah on 10 July to conduct a site assessment, and while a timeline for troop arrival has not been reported, additional military personnel have received their warning order for deployment. Central: Developments in Baghdad were highlighted by multiple concluded and announced demonstration events. Between the evening of 10 July and morning of 11 July, hundreds of individuals gathered in al-Mawal Square of Palestine Street, demanding the execution of those responsible for 3 July Karada attack and other terrorists, and called for reparation payments to shopkeepers equivalent to the cost of the damage. Protestors cut off access to roads in the area and threatened to continue their sit-in if the government fails to implement their demands. A military parade will be conducted in Baghdad celebrating Republic Day and the anniversary of the 14 July Revolution. Multiple roads will be closed including Muthanna Airport Road and 24 Ramadan Bridge, with security concerns understandably expected to remain heightened following the 3 July Karada bombing. Muqtada al-Sadr issued a long anticipated announcement calling for a large-scale demonstration in Tahrir Square on Friday, 15 July. The focus will reportedly be on government corruption and its effects on the security situation as seen with the Karada bombing, along with calls on the removal of corrupt or negligent security officials. Additional attention has been drawn to Sadr supporters who remain incarcerated from actions taken against the Coalition during the Iraq War, and demands that these individuals be freed in order to take part in the liberation of Mosul. This period remains critical for the wider reform movement as they seek to regain momentum now that Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr have concluded. Activity in western Anbar during this period comprised of multiple Iraqi and Coalition airstrikes and against various headquarters and support facilities. During the course of various stability operations in and around Fallujah, Iraqi Army elements discovered an IED factory containing a substantial number of IED and rocket components. South of Fallujah, efforts to clear recently liberated areas northwest of Ameriyat al-Fallujah continue, with one Hashd al-Shaabi official likely optimistically claiming the CONFIDENTIAL – FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 3 of 6 area was 90% clear of explosive threats. The director of the sub-district announced damage to the area was very limited, with conditions now reportedly set for the reintroduction of some civilians to the area. South: The focus of the abovementioned demonstrations orchestrated by Muqtada al-Sadr will understandably be in the capital, with an enduring potential for significant numbers of individuals from the Southern Region to travel to the capital for this event. Significant demonstrations from both Sadr supporters and other reform movement protestors are also expected in the Southern Region in accordance with routine Friday patterns. Should any deviation and violent clashes materialize in Baghdad, the potential for sympathetic responses in the Southern Region will understandably rise. Most activity in Basra during this period comprised of routine arrests of dozens of individuals on various criminal charges. Further to previous reporting of a high-profile government convoy movement in Basra, additional unconfirmed reporting from local sources indicates the vehicles may have been utilized for a prison transfer for a number of individuals arrested on terrorism charges. In recent reporting there have been at least five individuals with suspected IS affiliations arrested on terrorism charges, as well as a number of others arrested on terrorism charges suspected of criminal activity in accordance with the broad nature of potential Article 4 charges. During a press conference on 11 July, Basra Governor Majed Nasrawi renewed criticisms against South Electricity Director Zaki Saad, along with the Ministry of Electricity, stating corrupt practices were responsible for power levels in the province being well below what many power stations are capable of producing. Power shortages in the province continue to be linked to funding shortages for fuel and maintenance, and related Ministry of Electricity control of provincial-level production and national grid distribution. As usual, power issues remain linked to the potential for unrest, but with most demonstrations that develop either routine in nature, or contingent upon a sudden and prolonged drop in power levels. International: KDP-I CALLS FOR GENERAL STRIKE IN KURDISH AREAS OF IRAN – NRT The Kurdistan Democratic
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