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Greetings from the Project on Middle East Democracy!

Last week, Syrian violence and repression continued as Secretary Clinton announced President Assad had lost his legitimacy. Secretary Clinton also announced U.S. recognition of the Transitional National Council in Libya. Analysts debated the legitimacy of the National Dialogue in Bahrain amidst continued government repression. Meanwhile, popular frustration continues to mount in Egypt at the slow pace of reform. Look for next week to be dominated by increased international pressure on President Assad in Syria, as well as working toward a negotiated settlement in Libya.

For more detailed coverage of the debates surrounding U.S. foreign policy and the prospects for democracy in the Middle East, be sure to check out our blog, the POMED Wire.

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The Weekly Wire

July 18, 2011 Legislation

No relevant legislation was discussed this week.

Committee Hearings The Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia held the first of two hearings on “Promoting Peace? Re-examining U.S. Aid to the Palestinian Authority.” The hearing was presided over by Chairman Steve Chabot (R-OH), and ranking member Gary Ackerman (D- NY). The witnesses were Jacob Walles, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs; Lieutenant General Michael Moeller; and George A. Laudato, USAID Administrator’s Special Assistant for the Middle East.

The U.S. House of Representatives Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission held a hearing on human rights in Syria. The witnesses were Michael Posner, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor; Andrew Tabler, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Radwan Ziadeh, the Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy; Mona Yacoubian, the U.S. Institute for Peace Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention; and Mara Karlin, Instructor in Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.

From Washington

Syrian Regime Condemned: The U.N. Security Council condemned the attacks on U.S. and French embassies. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that President Bashar al-Assad has lost legitimacy and is “not indispensable.” President Barack Obama said that Assad is increasingly losing legitimacy with his people. The New York Times argued that the U.S. has now “turned decisively” against Syria. U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford said that he has seen “no evidence” of the regime’s willingness to reform, and rejected the possibility of being recalled from Syria. French Prime Minister François Fillon suggested that Assad is losing power; he joined Western powers in calling for the U.N. Security Council to take action, and said that Syria has “gone beyond all boundaries.” French President Nicolas Sarkozy demanded more sanctions against the regime.

Debating Action in Syria: Andrew Tabler noted that Assad’s regime is disintegrating but a transition “is going to take a long time.” The Washington Post Editorial Board and Max Boot praised U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford and called for the U.S. to continue pressuring the Syrian regime. The Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI) released a fact sheet outlining steps the U.S. can take to ensure Assad’s speedy exit. Stephen Cook noted that the state-supported dialogue was not a credible step towards democracy, and predicted that the military will be a decisive factor in resolving the conflict. Soner Cagaptay and Andrew Tabler recommend the U.S. and Turkey work to pressure the Syrian regime and to prepare for post-Assad Syria. Soner Cagaptay also speculated on the domestic and international impact of Turkey invading Syria. Gareth Jenkins noted the worsening relationship between Turkey and Syria, and the economic difficulties of this deterioration.

U.S. Recognizes TNC: U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced full recognition of the Transitional National Council (TNC). The remaining members of the Libya Contact Group will recognize the TNC as well. Chinese and Russian representatives declined the invitation from Turkey to attend the Contact Group meeting, where representatives were expected to develop a political plan to end hostilities in Libya.

Debate on Negotiations in Libya: A French spokesperson denied reports of direct negotiations with the Libyan government, but acknowledged that indirect contact had been made and that the rebels should begin negotiations. In response, the State Department reiterated that Gadhafi must leave and the Libyan people must decide how the transition proceeds. Con Coughlin argued that NATO countries are losing their resolve.

Skepticism on Gadhafi Exit: New intelligence reports indicated that Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi may be ready to negotiate a settlement. Le Figaro reported that Prime Minister Baghdadi al-Mahmoudi expressed willingness to negotiate unconditionally after a ceasefire. Other reports indicated a desire for Saif al-Islam to play a role in post-conflict Libya. French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé said that Gadhafi’s exit is still not certain. U.S. State Department Spokesperson Victoria Nuland remained skeptical.

U.S. on Egypt Transition: A U.S. State Department Spokesperson reiterated U.S. support for “a transparent, participatory process that is inclusive and open. The sequence and timing is up to the Egyptian people.” Analyst Dina Guirguis described the continuing frustration regarding the pace of constitutional change as well as the major political divisions.

Prospects for Yemen: Jeb Boone argued that the next Yemeni government “will face the almost insurmountable task of recreating a state out of a county that has descended into regional control.” Bernard Haykel asserted that no viable future leaders exist, a national unity government is the best possible outcome, and even then democracy is not a guarantee.

Criticism on Bahrain: Mehdi Hasan condemned the international community’s failure to act against Bahrain. Human Rights First condemned emerging reports of the torture and abuse of Bahraini football players. And Brian Dooley said that activists are wary that the National Dialogue is “elaborate play-acting for the international community’s benefit,” and the international investigation will be ineffective. Moroccan Reform Discussed: Ahmed Charai and Joseph Braude lauded the Moroccan referendum as highly significant, but Human Rights Watch was more skeptical, noting that violence continues and promises for reform have yet to be realized.

Supporting Democracy and Foreign Aid: Ted Piccone argued that the global democracy community gained a second wind at the recent Community of Democracies meeting. Former members of Congress Tom Daschle and Tom Ridge defended the importance of foreign aid and diplomacy in promoting economic growth, national security, and conflict prevention.

Iranian Dissent and Power Struggles: Alireza Nader discussed the growing rift between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guards, who have reportedly been instructed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to “help set the conditions for next year’s parliamentary elections as well as future elections.” Geneive Abdo released the “New Green Movement Manifesto.”

Also Worth Reading

Human Rights First issued a new report on the Bahraini regime’s continued intimidation, torture, and detention of activists, and violence against civilians.

The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) released a detailed report on Tunisia’s new election process.

International Crisis Group issued an analysis of “The Syrian Regime’s Slow-motion Suicide.”

From the Middle East

Ongoing Protests in Egypt: In an effort to meet demands resulting from protests that began last week in Cairo, Alexandria and the Suez region, the Egyptian Supreme Council for the Armed Forces (SCAF) announced that they have postponed parliamentary elections scheduled for September, which garnered support from several political parties. Also, SCAF dismissed or reassigned 669 police personnel associated with the deaths of nearly 900 protesters in the February demonstrations. There is no word on how the interim plans are proceeding with trials of Mubarak-era officials accused of opening fire on demonstrators (which Hosni Mubarak denied that he ordered). At least eight have been injured in recent protests, according a report by al-Jazeera. Demonstrators demand swifter reforms or threatened “further escalation” will take place; Prime Minister Essam Sharaf claimed that he supports the people’s right to demonstrate but that protests must not disrupt the rest of the public. And Omar Ismail also brought protests abroad when he asked to demonstrate in front of the British cabinet to call for a freezing of assets of those associated with the Mubarak regime.

Syrian Protest Movement Gains Momentum: Protests escalated throughout the week. Forces stormed the central city of Homs, killing two and injured 20. Friday saw at least 14 deaths and the shutdown of phone and internet services. A harsher and continued crackdown is feared as a result of mounting international pressure and a shift in U.S. rhetoric. It is estimated that 1,750 civilians and security personnel have been killed and 12,000 arrested since the uprisings began. A report emerged of security forces beating a handicapped man.

Political Developments in Syria: U.S. and French embassies in Syria were attacked, resulting in considerable building damage and anti-American graffiti referring to U.S. ambassador Robert Ford as a “dog,” but no reports of fatalities. The Syrian government condemned Secretary Clinton’s harsh response as evidence of “U.S. flagrant interference.” Participants of the national dialogue issued a final statement, which fell short of the demands of protesters. Syrian Embassy Spokesperson Ahmed Salkini announced his resignation, and apologized for his unresponsiveness to the uprisings. President Bashar al-Assad named Anas Abdul-Razzaq Na’em as the new governor of Hama.

Egypt Appoints New Information Minister: Osama Heikal was appointed as Egypt’s new Information Minister. Ahram Online suggested the move was a “significant turnabout in the interim administration’s attitude towards freedom of expression and media freedom.

Bahrain: Attention on Abuses, as Dialogue Continues: Ayat al-Qurmez, who was detained in March and sentenced in June for “anti-state crimes,” was released from prison. A group of Irish doctors, activists and politicians visited Bahrain to shed light on the persecution of medical professionals. The National Dialogue continued and al-Wefaq reiterated calls for a government led by parliamentary majority.

Continuing Protests in Morocco: Protests in Morocco continued; thousands of demonstrators demanded greater reforms outlined by the constitutional referendum.

Developments in Libya: Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi‘s son, Seif al-Islam, said that the Libyan government began negotiations with France. Also, Libyan officials announced that the rebel-held eastern half of the country could be cut off from drinking water supplies if a cease-fire is not enacted to allow for essential system maintenance.