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The Lessons of the Iraq War

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The Lessons of the Iraq War CSIS___________________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775-3270 (To comment: [email protected] For Updates see Executive Summary: http://www.csis.org/features/iraq_instantlessons_exec.pdf; Main Report: http://www.csis.org/features/iraq_instantlessons.pdf) The Lessons of the Iraq War: Main Report Eleventh Working Draft: July 21, 2003 (Note: This is the last prepublication version. The CSIS book to be published this fall will have substantial additions and corrections, and comments on this draft will be incorporated into the book, and the ongoing CSIS Lessons of War project. Comments --and requests to cite, quote, or reproduce any part of this document should be requested in writing or by e-mail to [email protected].) Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair for Strategy Cordesman: Lessons of the Iraq War 7/23/03 Page 2 Acknowledgments The author would like to thank Brian Hartman and Julia Powell of ABC for help in the research for this book, and Brian Hartman for many of the numbers on the size of the Coalition air effort, and Coalition Forces. Ryan Faith helped with the research for the chronology of events and both Ryan Faith and Jennifer Moravitz helped with the organization and editing. The reader should also be aware that this book makes extensive use of reporting on the war from a wide range of press sources, only some of which can be fully footnoted, interviews with serving and retired officers involved in various aspects of the planning and execution of the war, and the extensive work done by Australian, British, and US officers in preparing daily briefings and official background materials on the conflict. Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. May not be reproduced, excerpted, or quotes without the author’s written permission. Cordesman: Lessons of the Iraq War 7/23/03 Page 3 Index Acknowledgments.................................................................................................................................. 2 I. Introduction ............................................................................................. 12 KEY INITIAL LESSONS OF THE CONFLICT.................................................................................................. 12 ANALYZING THE MORE DETAILED LESSONS ............................................................................................ 14 SOURCES AND METHODS.......................................................................................................................... 15 II. The Limits of Analysis........................................................................... 17 III. The Forces Engaged............................................................................. 22 THE CHANGING AND UNCERTAIN NATURE OF FORCE RATIOS ................................................................. 22 IRAQ’S MISUSE OF ITS FORCE STRENGTH DURING THE FIGHTING............................................................. 24 FAILURES IN IRAQI LEADERSHIP............................................................................................................... 25 THE IMPACT OF SEAPOWER ...................................................................................................................... 26 THE IMPACT OF AIRPOWER....................................................................................................................... 27 The Size and Nature of the Iraqi Air Force......................................................................................... 27 The Size and Nature of the Coalition Air Component......................................................................... 29 The Coalition Application of Airpower............................................................................................... 32 Effects-based Bombing........................................................................................................................ 33 Anything But a Cakewalk.................................................................................................................... 33 LAND-BASED AIR DEFENSES .................................................................................................................... 36 The Iraqi Air Defense Command ........................................................................................................ 36 IRAQI AND COALITION LAND FORCES ...................................................................................................... 38 Coalition Land Forces ........................................................................................................................ 39 The Size and Capability of Iraqi Forces ............................................................................................. 41 The Iraqi Land Force Command Structure......................................................................................... 43 The Iraqi Manpower Base................................................................................................................... 43 The Iraqi Land Force Order of Battle................................................................................................. 44 The Deployment of Iraqi Land Forces................................................................................................ 45 Iraq’s Irregular Forces....................................................................................................................... 47 Iraqi Tank Strength............................................................................................................................. 47 Other Iraqi Armored Equipment Strength ..........................................................................................48 Iraqi Artillery Strength ....................................................................................................................... 48 Other Iraqi Major Land-Force Weapons............................................................................................49 Army Aviation ..................................................................................................................................... 50 Army Air Defenses .............................................................................................................................. 50 OTHER QUALITATIVE PROBLEMS ............................................................................................................. 50 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. May not be reproduced, excerpted, or quotes without the author’s written permission. Cordesman: Lessons of the Iraq War 7/23/03 Page 4 THE PROBLEM OF FUTURE FORCE RATIOS ............................................................................................... 51 IV. The Course of the War and the Interaction of Joint Forces............ 52 THE BEGINNING OF THE CONFLICT: THE DECAPITATION STRIKE AND INITIAL LAND ADVANCE.............. 53 18/19 March: Prelude......................................................................................................................... 54 19/20 March: G-Day........................................................................................................................... 55 INTENSIVE AIR OPERATIONS AND CONTINUING LAND ADVANCES........................................................... 55 20/21 March........................................................................................................................................ 57 21/22 March........................................................................................................................................ 58 22/23 March........................................................................................................................................ 61 23/24 March........................................................................................................................................ 63 24/25 March........................................................................................................................................ 64 THE CONTINUING ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTH........................................................................................ 65 25/26 March........................................................................................................................................ 67 26/27 March........................................................................................................................................ 68 27/28 March........................................................................................................................................ 69 28/29 March........................................................................................................................................ 70 30/31 March........................................................................................................................................ 72 31 March/1 April................................................................................................................................. 74 1/2 April.............................................................................................................................................. 76 2/3 April.............................................................................................................................................. 78 3/4 April.............................................................................................................................................
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