Confidential

2021 Election Poll August 18th Prepared by Counsel Public Affairs Inc . METHODOLOGY

3,499 Canadians were surveyed between August 16th and 18th 2021.

We used the Lucid Exchange Platform as the sample provider, which blends a variety of partner panels.

If the survey was a probability-based random sample of the same size, it would be considered accurate to +/- 1.7 nineteen times out of twenty.

Results are sub-regionally weighted for:

• Age and birth sex according to the 2016 Census. • 2019 Federal Vote.

All slides represent Decided and Leaning voting intentions. Nationally, the Liberals and Conservatives have not moved since our June poll. NDP are up 3 points, and the Greens are down 2 points.

100% 7.9% 6.9% 90% 6.9% 4.8% 7.8% 80% 7.7%

70% 17.9% 21.7% 60%

50% 27.6% 28.5% 40%

30%

20% 31.9% 30.3% 10%

0% Canada Canada June 4th, 2021 August 18th, 2021

Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party BC is largely unchanged from June 4th. NDP are up in the Lower Mainland, at the expense of the Liberals. 3rd Party support outside of the Lower Mainland is declining. to the benefit of the Conservatives and Liberals.

100% 5% 9% 6% 7% 6% 10% 90% 9% 8% 6% 11% 10% 12% 80% 24% 30% 70% 30% 28% 32% 33% 60%

50% 26% 26% 40% 28% 29% 34% 30% 31%

20% 36% 32% 26% 25% 10% 15% 18% 0% British Columbia British Columbia Lower Mainland Lower Mainland Rest of BC Rest of BC June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th

Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party In Alberta, the Conservatives are gaining outside of the urban centres. In Rural Alberta, 3rd party support is decreasing to the benefit of the three main federal parties.

100% 7% 10% 12% 16% 13% 3% 90% 3% 20% 2% 3% 80% 4% 15% 6% 21% 21% 18% 24% 70% 13% 60%

50% 57% 44% 40% 46% 49% 43% 50% 30%

20%

10% 17% 17% 20% 17% 18% 12% 0% Alberta Alberta Calgary and Edmonton Calgary and Edmonton Rural Alberta Rural Alberta Jun 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th

Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party Liberals down to the benefit of the NDP in Saskatchewan. Liberals down to the benefit of the CPC in Manitoba.

100% 9% 7% 14% 10% 90% 2% 5% 1% 5% 80% 17% 26% 26% 70% 18%

60%

50% 33% 54% 40% 40% 52% 30%

20% 29% 23% 10% 18% 12% 0% Saskatchewan Saskatchewan Manitoba Manitoba June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th

Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party Liberals up in Toronto, down in the GTHA. CPC unchanged in Toronto and GTHA. NDP unchanged in Toronto, up in GTHA.

100% 7% 7% 6% 5% 7% 9% 5% 90% 8% 5% 6% 5% 4%

80% 20% 21% 17% 19% 24% 23% 70%

60% 24% 23% 29% 50% 28% 28% 28%

40%

30% 47% 20% 44% 43% 38% 36% 36% 10%

0% Ontario Ontario Toronto Toronto GTHA GTHA June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th

Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party LPC down slightly in NE Ontario. CPC unchanged in both SW and NE Ontario. NDP up considerably in SW Ontario.

100% 7% 7% 10% 8% 9% 8% 90% 8% 5% 5% 6% 11% 8% 80% 19% 24% 17% 22% 31% 70% 21%

60% 28% 50% 28% 29% 30% 29% 40% 28%

30%

20% 38% 36% 37% 34% 29% 28% 10%

0% Ontario Ontario SW Ontario SW Ontario NE Ontario NE Ontario June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th

Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party Liberals, Conservatives and NDP up slightly in RS/RN at the expense of the Bloc. Bloc gains in Eastern Quebec with little movement for the other parties. Montreal is unchanged.

100% 4% 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 4% 5% 3% 6% 4% 5% 6% 7% 4% 90% 6%

80% 20% 21% 33% 32% 38% 31% 36% 70% 48% 13% 60% 14% 7% 10% 12% 11% 8% 50% 10% 14% 14% 40% 15% 10% 25% 11% 23% 30% 7% 47% 20% 45% 34% 33% 31% 27% 27% 25% 10%

0% Quebec Quebec . Montreal Montreal Rive-Sud / Rive-Nord Rive-Sud / Rive-Nord Eastern Quebec Eastern Quebec June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th

Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party In Atlantic, Liberals are down 5 points. Conservatives are up 5 points. NDP are up 10 points. Greens are down 7.

100% 8% 6% 90% 4% 11% 80% 29% 70% 19%

60%

50% 24% 29% 40%

30%

20% 37% 32% 10%

0% Atlantic Atlantic June 4th Aug 18th

Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party Among men, Liberals are consistent with previous round, down slightly among 35-54. Conservatives are also consistent, up slightly among older men. NDP are up among young men.

100% 7.9% 7.0% 7% 8% 8% 6% 14% 12% 4% 90% 6.9% 4.8% 6% 5% 7% 10% 7.8% 6% 6% 5% 8% 80% 7.7% 4% 5% 12% 17% 13% 17% 70% 17.9% 21.7% 18% 24% 12% 60%

50% 32% 39% 27.6% 28.5% 25% 35% 35% 40% 25%

30%

20% 31.9% 32% 32% 30.3% 30% 28% 27% 28% 10%

0% Canada Canada M 18-34 M 18-34 M 35-54 M 35-54 M 55+ M 55+ June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th

Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party Liberals are consistent among female age groups. Conservatives are down slightly with younger women. NDP have gained considerably among women.

100% 5% 4% 7.9% 7.0% 9% 8% 7% 5% 5% 4% 4.8% 5% 90% 6.9% 6% 8% 10% 8% 11% 7.8% 5% 13% 80% 7.7% 2% 6%

70% 21.7% 13% 18% 17.9% 22% 28% 29% 37% 60%

50% 29% 29% 27.6% 28.5% 24% 24% 40% 17% 14% 30%

20% 35% 31.9% 30.3% 33% 31% 32% 31% 34% 10%

0% Canada Canada F 18-34 F 18-34 F 35-54 F 35-54 F 55+ F 55+ June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th

Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party Liberals are consistent among union status. Conservatives are down slightly with union members. NDP have gained considerably among private-sector union members.

100% 7.9% 7.0% 10% 9% 7% 6% 13% 13% 4% 90% 4.8% 7% 6.9% 7% 7% 7.8% 3% 7% 7.7% 10% 8% 80% 8% 10% 10% 8% 21% 70% 17.9% 21.7% 18% 22% 13% 22% 60% 24%

50% 27.6% 29% 31% 28.5% 22% 25% 40% 19% 22%

30%

20% 31.9% 30.3% 32% 31% 32% 30% 32% 30% 10%

0% Canada Canada Public Sector Union Public Sector Union Private Sector Union Private Sector Union Not Unionized Not Unionized June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th

Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party Liberals are down with visible minorities. Conservatives see little movement, down slightly among non-visible minorities. NDP are up among visible minorities.

100% 7.9% 7.0% 9% 9% 8% 6% 90% 4.8% 5% 6.9% 6% 5% 7% 7.8% 2% 3% 9% 80% 7.7% 9% 19% 70% 21.7% 25% 21% 17.9% 18% 60% 22% 50% 27.6% 22% 28.5% 29% 31% 40%

30%

41% 20% 36% 31.9% 30.3% 29% 28% 10%

0% Canada Canada Visible Minority Visible Minority Non-Visible Minority Non-Visible MInority June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th June 4th Aug 18th

Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin OToole New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet Green Party of Canada led by Annamie Paul Another Party