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The Decline of the New Democratic Party: the Politics of Postmateeualasm Or Neo-Liberalism?

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The Decline of the New Democratic Party: the Politics of Postmateeualasm Or Neo-Liberalism? THE DECLINE OF THE NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY: THE POLITICS OF POSTMATEEUALASM OR NEO-LIBERALISM? Jonah Butovsky A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Department of Sociology University of Toronto O Copyright by Jonah Butovslq 2001 National Library Bibliothèque nationaIe I*I of Canada du Canada Acquisitions and Acquisitions et Bibliographie Services services bibliographiques 395 Wellington Street 395. me Wellington Ottawa ON KIA ON4 Ottawa ON K1A ON4 Canada Canada The author has granted a non- L'auteur a accordé une licence non exclusive licence allowing the exclusive permettant à la National Lhrary of Canada to Bibliothèque nationale du Canada de reproduce, loan, distribute or sell reproduire7prêter, distribuer ou copies of this thesis in microform, vendre des copies de cette thèse sous paper or electronic formats. la forme de microfiche/film, de reproduction sur papier ou sur format électronique. The author retains ownership of the L'auteur conserve la propriété du copyright in this thesis. Neither the droit d'auteur qui protège cette thèse. thesis nor substantial extracts fkom it Ni la thèse ni des extraits substantiels may be printed or otherwise de celle-ci ne doivent être imprimes reproduced without the author's ou autrement reproduits sans son permission. autorisation. THE DECLINE OF THE NEW DEMOCMTS: THE POLITICS OF POSTMATERIALISM OR NEO-LIBERALISM? Doctor of Philosophy, 2001 Jonah Butovsky Graduate Department of Sociology University of Toronto ABSTRACT The New Democratic Party (NDP), Canada's social democratic pax-ty, suffered a precipitate declïne during the 1990s. They received an average of almost 20% of the vote during the l98Os, but gained only 7% in the vote in 1993 and 1 1% in 1997. This dissertation considers Inglehart's postmaterialist thesis and Lipset's declining- significance-of-class thesis as possible explanations for the NDP's decline. Lipset focuses on the decline of materialist politics whereas lnglehart focuses on the rise of a new postmaterialist politics. however both scholars argue that due to a prolonged period of peace and prosperity in the postwar years, a growing share of the population have their material needs met. In the political realm, this se-ment of the population has turned its attention toward postmatenalist issues such as support for the environment, minority rights, and other quality-of-lifè issues. The postrnateriaIist thesis implies that the NDP has suffered because they remain wedded to a materialist politics. However, using data from the Canadian Election Studies (1 984-1 997), I found that postmaterialist issues have had a modest impact in shaping people's ideoIogica1 outlooks. In addition, postmaterialist issues have played a minor role in structuring recent kderal elections. ..- III I trace the NDP's decline to the shifi in the balance of power in Canada toward the corporate class at the expense of organized labour and "working people". The neo-liberai ideology which champions the fiee market and legitimizes stark social inequalities, has become hegemonic in the past decade. This ideology portrays the NDP: which maintains that the state should play a key role in the redistribution of wealth, as passé and out of touch with the realities of the global economy. As a result of these economic and ideological shifts the NDP is increasingly disadvantaged in mustering resources with which to contest elections. ACKNOWEDGEMENTS The completion of this dissertation was helped by many people. First of dl, 1 would Iike to thank my thesis comrnittee: Bob Bryrn, John Hannigan. and Jack Veugelers. Whenever speaking to fellow students about my cornmittee, they typically comrnented that it sounded like a "great" comrnittee. I couldn't agree more. Each of them contrîbuted something unique to this project and to my education. John introduced me to theoretical approaches that have enriched my thinking and this dissertation. Jack was painstaking in his review of my work-in-progress. He offered cogent cornmentary on particular arguments, missing citations. poorly chosen words. and so on. while helping me keep my eye on the broader aims of the research. 1 am also thankful to Jack for his faith in me and his reassurance that this project was widiin rny reach. Bob has been my mentor ever since 1 walked through the doors at U of T. Bob was available ?O me virtually 24 hours a day and saw this project through fiom beginning to end. 1 am indebted to hirn for offering his wise counsel and sharing his vast sociological knowledge. Talking politics with my good friends had an indirect but critical role in this project. Beyond that. their Company was an invaluable countenveight to the sometimes isolating nature of dissertation research and writing. Naomi Dachner has been by my side from the time 1 began studying sociology in my second year as an undergraduate to the preparations for my dissertation defeense. Naomi has been rny key source of emotional and intellectual support. Perhaps more importantly. she has been my best friend. This dissertation is dedicated to my parents, Lillian and Sid Butovsky, as a token of my cratitude for their unwavering love. support. and confidence in me. C TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract Chapter 1. Introduction 1.1 Stratification, Party Systerns, and Alienation from Electoral Politics 1.2 Increasing Voter Cynicisrn and the Tum Toward Non-Conventional Politics 1.3 An Electoral Paradox? Chapter 2. The Salience of Postmaterialism in Canada 2.1 Postrnaterialism 2.2 Postmaterialism Quantified 2 -3 Postmaterialism in Canada 2.4 Has Postmaterialism Become More Important it the Minds of the Canadian Electorate 2.5 Predictors of Postmaterialism 2-51 Predicting Inglehart's Postrnaterialism in Canada in 1988 2-52 Data and Methods Used 2-53 Interpretation of Results 2.6 Tracking the Level of Postmaterialism Over Time 2.6.1 Data and Methods Used 2.7 Conclusion Chapter 3. The Old and New Left in Canada: Conflict or Compatibility 3.1 The CCF-NDP: The Short Course 3.2 The Waffle InterIude 3 -3 Adding on Postmaterialism 3.4 The Current Predicament of the Canadian Lefi 3 -5 Ideological Views of NDP Supporters: A Divided Party? 3.6 Exodüs to Reform? 3 -7 Conclusion Chapter 4. CIass Voting in Canada During the 1990s 4.1 The Roots of Class Politics 4.2 Class and Voting 4.3 The Declining Significance of Social Class? 4.4 Class and Voting in Canada 4.5 The 1984 Federal Election 4.6 The 1997 Federal EIection 4.7 The Relationship Between Class and Voting in the 1984 and 1997 Federal Elections 4.8 Logistic Regression: The Predictors of Voting Choice 4-8.1 Results 4.9 Conclusion Chapter 5 Success and Failure: Power and Resource Mobilization in NDP Eiectoral Campaigns 5.1 A Cornparison of the Ideologies of Nova Scotians and Quebeckers 5.2 Description of Cases 5.2.1 Quebec in 1988 5 -2.2 Nova Scotia in 1997 5.2.3 Why Quebec and Nova Scotia? 5.3 Getting Out the Message 5.3.1 Alexa McDonough and the NDP's Hi& Exposure in Nova Scotia 5.3.2 Ed Broadbent and the Anonyrnity of the NDP in Quebec 5 -4 The Impact of Carnpaign Spending 5.4.1 Bulging Wallets in Nova Scotia 5.4.2 Restricted Spending in Quebec 5.5 The New Democrats: A Bureaucratie Party? 5-6 The Mass Media and Canadian Politics 5.6.1 Newspaper Coverage of the 1988 Election 5.6.2 Newspaper Coverage on the 1997 Election 5.6.3 Television Coverage in 1997 5.7 The NDP's Platform and Strategy 5.7.1 Quebec 1988 5.7.2 Nova Scotia 1997 5.8 Conchsion Chapter 6. The Politics of Neo-Liberalism and the Decline of the NDP 6.1 From the Keynesian Welfare State to Capitalist Crisis and Economic Restructuring 6.2 The Canadian Capitalist Class 6.2.1 The Structure of the Capitalist Class in Canada 6.2.2 The Business CounciI on National Issues 6.3 The Free Trade Agreement (FTA): A Tuming Point in the Capitalist Offensive 6.4 nie Declining Power of the Labour Movernent 6.5 Shifiing to the Right: The Construction of Neo-Liberal Hegem 6.6 Conclusion Chapter 7. Conclusion 7.1 The Postmaterialist Explanation 7.2 A Critique Postrnaterialism 7.3 The Declining Significance of Classllhe Shrinking of the Industrial Working CIass 7-4 ExpIaining the NDP's Successes and Failures 7-5 Neo-Liberal Ideology and the Decline of the NDP References viii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 "What is the most important issue of the carnpaign?" 1988- 1997 Table 2.2 Postmaterialist issues 1988-1997 Table 2.3 Results of regession anaiysis predicting Inglehart's postrnaterialism score 1988 Table 2.4 Predicting postrnateriaIism/tolerance fiom 1988-1997 Table 3.1 Mean scores for supporters of each of the main parties on important lefi and right issues Table 3.2 Cornparing the attitudes of blue-collar/white-collar NDP voters on important left and right issues Table 3.3 Comparing the attitudes of blue-collar workers in each of the parties Table 3.4 Destination of those who moved fkom the NDP in 1988 to another party in 1993 Table 3.5 Comparing consistent NDPers (1988-1993) with those that moved to the Reform Party in 1993 Table 3 -6 Cornparison of 1988 NDP voters who voted Refom in 1993 with those who stayed with the NDP in 1993 Table 3.7 The collar/party relationship 1984-1 997 Table 4.1 Relationship between occupational class and vote in the 1984 federal election Table 4.2 Relationship between occupational class and vote in the 1997 federal election Table 4.3 Effects of social characteristics of voting NDP TabIe 5.1 Political Views of Quebeckers vs- those in the rest of Canada 1938 Table 5.2 Political Views of Nova Scotians vs.
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