Rainy Season Monitoring World Food Programme Angola
February 2021
Angola Rainy Season Monitoring 2020-2021
Highlights • In most provinces precipitation started in the normal period with normal to slightly below normal levels in the first two months. • From December 2020 significantly below average rainfall has been registered in the provinces of Cuanza Sul, Benguela, Huambo, Namibe and Huíla. • Above average rainfall in the last two months in the provinces of Cabinda, Uíge, Moxico and Cuando Cubango. • Vegetation coverage below the average and with a decreasing trend until the middle of February 2021 in the provinces of Cuanza Sul, Benguela, Huambo, Namibe and Huíla. Metodology The analysis is based on the data from remote rainfall monitoring and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) available at WFP-VAM DataViz Platform (dataviz.vam.wfp.org). NDVI is an indicator of vegetation cover and, therefore, can be used to predict agricultural production and pasture conditions, as well as to monitor drought. For each geographical region, the rainfall and NDVI data are analysed comparing the values of the normal situation (average values) with the values observed at the present time. The analysis assumes that there is no other phenomenon, such as fires, which can affect vegetation in addition to the climate. Rainy Season Performance Rainfall data for the current rainy season indicate that precipitation started in the normal period in almost all provinces, which may have allowed the normal start of sowing.
In the last two months the provinces of the coastal and central areas of Angola received below average rainfall, with emphasis on Cuanza Sul, Benguela, Huambo, Namibe and Huíla with less than 40% of the average, Bié province and northwest of Cuando Cubango, which received between 40-60% of the average precipitation. The provinces of Uíge, southern part of Moxico, and most of the provinces of Cunene and Cuando Cubango had above average rainfall. A comparison of rainfall data since 1981 indicates that the southwestern provinces experienced the worst drought in the last 40 years during the months of November 2020 to January 2021.
As a result of low rainfall, the state of vegetation worsened from December 2020 to February 2021 as shown by the maps. The provinces of Luanda, Cuanza Sul, Benguela, Huambo, Namibe, Huíla and western part of Cunene have 50- 70% of the average vegetation, which can reduce agricultural productivity and quality of pastures.
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Angola Rainy Season Monitoring 2020-2021
Below is a summary of the situation in the five provinces most affected since the beginning of the rainy season, namely: Cuanza Sul, Benguela, Huambo, Namibe and Huíla.
Cuanza Sul The province of Cuanza Sul recorded almost normal rainfall 80 0.8 70 0.7 until the end of November 2020. In January 2021, 60 0.6 precipitation dropped significantly to around 10-16% of the 50 0.5
40 0.4 NDVI average. For this reason, the vegetation cover has dropped 30 0.3 considerably. Municipality data for January and February Precipitação (mm) 20 0.2 indicate that the situation is worse in Porto Amboim, 10 0.1 0 0 Sumbe, Conda, Sales and Cassongue. 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 Precipitação média (mm) Precipitação (mm) NDVI médio NDVI
Benguela The province of Benguela started the rainy season with 90 0.7 rainfall above normal in October 2020, from November 80 0.6 70 onwards the rainfall decreased reaching very low levels 0.5
60 (mm) 50 0.4 compared to the average in December and January. As
40 0.3 NDVI 30 a result, vegetation coverage has worsened. Data from
Precipitação 0.2 20 0.1 January and February show that all municipalities are 10 0 0 in a critical situation in terms of vegetation coverage. 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 Precipitação média (mm) Precipitação (mm) NDVI médio NDVI
Huambo In Huambo, rains started at the end of August following the 90 0.8 80 0.7 average trend until November 2020. In December 2020 and 70 0.6 60
(mm) 0.5 January 2021 there was a significant reduction in rainfall, 50 0.4
40 NDVI which considerably affected the vegetation cover that 0.3
30 Precipitação worsened from December 2020 onwards, and continues to 20 0.2 decrease in February 2021. The most affected municipalities 10 0.1 0 0 are those located in the western part of the province: 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Huambo, Caála, Ecuma, Ukuma, Longonjo, Londuimbale e 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 Tchinjenje. Precipitação média (mm) Precipitação (mm) NDVI médio NDVI
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Angola Rainy Season Monitoring 2020-2021
Namibe In Namibe, rains started in October and were always 40 0.35
35 0.3 below 10 mm per every 10 days until the beginning of 30 0.25 February 2021. For this season, rainfall levels have
(mm) 25 0.2 20 been lower than the average since December 2020, 0.15 NDVI 15 which made the coverage of the vegetation worse
Precipitação 0.1 10
5 0.05 than average. In the municipalities of Bibala and
0 0 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Namacuio the vegetation cover had a decreasing Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May trend, while in the others it remained stable although 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 Precipitação média (mm) Precipitação (mm) NDVI médio NDVI below normal.
Huila The province of Huíla recorded rainfall close to average in 70 0.8 60 0.7 0.6 the first two months, however, as of November 2020 the 50
(mm) 0.5 difference with the average grew and worsened in 40 0.4
30 NDVI December 2020 and January 2021. As a consequence of the 0.3
Precipitação 20 scarcity of precipitation, the vegetation cover decreased 0.2 from January to February, with municipalities of Lubango, 10 0.1 0 0 Cacula, Chibia, Caconda, Caluquembe, Quilengues, 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Quipungo, Chicomba, Chipindo Gambos and Humpata being 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 the most affected. Precipitação média (mm) Precipitação (mm) NDVI médio NDVI
Household Vulnerability to Food and Nutritional Insecurity The lack of precipitation in some provinces could affect food security and, consequently, the nutritional status of individuals in the coming months depending on the severity of the phenomenon and the vulnerability of households. IIMS 2015/2016 data indicate that Angola has a very high rate of chronic malnutrition (37.6%) and agriculture is the main income generating activity for many households, therefore, a significant reduction in agricultural production will have negative impacts in the well-being and food security of households. A 2019 food security assessment carried out in some municipalities in the provinces of Cunene, Huíla and Namibe indicated that there were 421,174 people in acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+) in the months of July to September 2019 due to the drought experienced in the rainy season 2018 / 2019. Considering the number of municipalities affected in the current rainy season and the severity of the drought until the second decade of February 2021, a greater number of people can be expected to experience different levels of acute food insecurity. Considering the proportion of the population whose main economic activity is agriculture, animal production, hunting, forestry and fishing (Table 1), it can be expected that the drought will impact the lives of many Angolans in the southwest.
Table 1: Chronic malnutrition, access to food, employment, access to land and animal husbandry
Province % Chronic % households without Principal employment: % % malnutrition enough food during 7 agriculture, animal households households (2015/2016) months or longer production, hunting, owning land practising (2018/2019) fishing, in % of (2018/2019) animal households husbandry (2018/2019) (2018/2019) Cuanza Sul 48,8 11,0 80,0 82,2 55,8
Benguela 33,1 18,6 43,4 45,6 44,4
Huambo 43,6 10,9 69,8 76,1 57,0
Namibe 33,8 17,5 25,4 24,5 32,3
Huíla 43,6 5,0 68,5 67,9 67,2
Nacional 37,6 13,8 46,0 51,2 35,3
Source: IIMS, 2015/2016; IDREA, 2018/2019.
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Angola Rainy Season Monitoring 2020-2021
Since last week of October 2020, WFP has been remotely monitoring the vulnerability of households to food insecurity through phone call interviews (mVAM). The objective of this country-wide exercise is to provide high- frequency data to track food security trends in real time. Data from last two months indicate that over 80% and 65% of households respectively are consuming store-bought cereals and roots/tubers. The consumption of products from own production has a weight of 16% in cereals and 29% in roots and tubers. Other food sources cited are regular remittances from relatives and occasional offers.
Implications for Food and Nutritional Security In general, the rainy season in the provinces of Cuanza Sul, Benguela, Huambo, Namibe and Huíla ends at the beginning of May, so there are only two months left to the end of the rainy season. If the lack of precipitation prevails, there will be low harvests from the first crop and few opportunities for second crop due to the lack of residual moisture in the soil. Depending on the severity of the drought, some regions may have water shortages for human consumption as in 2019. Agricultural production is the main source of food and cash income for rural households in the countries of the SADC region. In this regard, low agricultural production puts many households in food insecurity due to i) lack of food produced by themselves, ii) lack of money from sales of agricultural production, and iii) rise in food prices due to reduced supply in markets. Food insecurity is manifested by inadequate food consumption, both in quality and quantity, and in the later phase it has implications for nutritional status, that is, it increases the rates of acute malnutrition and the consequent effect on the health of individuals. Recommendations Given that the rainy season continues until the beginning of May, there is a need for continuous monitoring of precipitation in order to identify the most critical provinces and municipalities for an in-depth assessment of post- harvest food and nutritional security in order to measure in detail the magnitude and severity of the impacts of scarcity of rain on food and nutritional security. It is advisable that the sectors and entities dealing with food security and nutrition outline possible mitigation interventions for acute food insecurity and acute malnutrition for the period of scarcity that will run from September 2021 to March 2022.
Contacts
1. Michele Mussoni Head of Office for WFP Angola Email: [email protected] 2. Antonio Paulo Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping Officer Email: [email protected]
3. Maria Riabinina Programme Policy Consultant Email: [email protected]
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