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Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Angola Research Highlights – Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Angola

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Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Angola Research Highlights – Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Angola RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Angola Research Highlights – Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Angola Funded by ‘Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme’ (ASAP) Phase 2. International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) Produced by the University of Cape Town Undertaken in support of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) by: African Climate & Development Initiative (www.acdi.uct.ac.za) Climate System Analysis Group (www.csag.uct.ac.za) Environmental Policy Research Unit (www.epru.uct.ac.za) Recommended citation: Hunter. R., Crespo. O., Coldrey, K, Cronin, K, New, M. 2020. Research Highlights – Climate Change and Future Crop Suitability in Angola. University of Cape Town, South Africa, undertaken in support of Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme’ (ASAP) Phase 2. International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), Rome. The content and presentation of material in this report is the sole responsibility of the Authors and does not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Fund for Agricultural Development of the United Nations. The project team gratefully acknowledges the support of IFAD towards this research and in particular the IFAD country office and project staff. The project team thanks the various stakeholders and contributors who have shared their knowledge and time during this study. CONTENTS Background and context . 1 Summary results . 1 Method and Approach . 2 Impacts........................................................................................2 Figure 1. Demonstration example of the distribution of crop suitability index. generated using EcoCrop ........3 Climate projections . 4 Projected changes to Temperature in Angola by 2050 . 4 Table 1. Projected influence of climate change on mean monthly temperature (°C) in Angola at Historical and Mid-Century periods, and monthly anomalies between the two time periods ..............................4 Climate – projected changes to rainfall in Angola by 2050 . 5 Table 2. Projected influence of climate change on mean monthly precipitation (mm/month) in Angola at Historical and Mid-Century periods, and monthly anomalies between the two time periods ..........................5 Climate change and its effect on crops: BEANS . 6 Climate change and its effect on crops: CASSAVA . 8 Climate change and its effect on crops: GROUNDNUT . 10 Climate change and its effect on crops: MAIZE . 12 Climate change and its effect on crops: SORGHUM . 14 Summary of findings, recommendations, adaptation strategies and climate-resilient alternative for smallholder farmers . 16 Appendix tables . 18 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN ANGOLA BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT The Adaptation for Smallholder The full Climate Risk Analysis report Agriculture Programme (ASAP) is (accessible via the IFAD Country AGRICULTURE IN a flagship programme within the page 1) provides an analysis of ANGOLA International Fund for Agricultural inter alia i) the current and future Development’s (IFAD’s) portfolio climate characteristics of Angola; Angola’s agricultural production of activities aimed at channelling ii) the potential change in the is characterised by moderately low climate and environmental finance suitability of various crops under productivity of a wide selection of staple crops, a diverse variety of to smallholder farmers, and which projected climate changes; and annual and perennial horticultural allows IFAD country programmes iii) potential risks and economic impacts related to climate change, products, and cash crops. Rainfed to design projects which integrate as well as potential adaptation agriculture, practiced by smallholder considerations of the impacts of options and opportunities to farmers, accounts for the vast climate change on smallholder increase climate resilience. The majority of the planted area. In farmers. To support the integration following report provides a brief addition to rainfed production of of climate information and summary of highlighted results staple crops, there are complex improved knowledge of climate for Angola, including: i) projected mixed farming practices that related risks to the smallholder changes to temperature and include various fruit trees adjacent agriculture sector, IFAD precipitation as a result of climate to households (bananas, avocado, commissioned a Climate Risk change; and ii) impacts of climate mango, coconut, papaya and Analysis to assess the potential change on the future suitability of other), mixed kitchen-scale gardens impacts of climate change on several major crops and resulting for production of diverse vegetable several crops and commodities in impacts on production across each crops, and grazed production of Angola. of the country’s 18 provinces. cattle and small ruminant livestock. 1 https://www.ifad.org/en/web/operations/country/id/Angola SUMMARY RESULTS The likely effects of climate change onset of rainfall, and an overall season. The overall effect of these are not fully consistent between decrease in the annual and reductions in monthly precipitation each of Angola’s 18 provinces seasonal precipitation between the throughout the rainy season is to or the crops assessed, however, present day and the ‘Mid-Century’ reduce the total seasonal rainfall several general observations can future (defined by the period for the period October–April by be made. For example, all Provinces 2040–2069). Average monthly 8.5 %, from 765 mm/season to 700 in the study area are predicted to rainfall is predicted to decrease mm/season. The total estimated experience increasing temperatures in all Provinces, including during change in annual rainfall between throughout the year, indicated the months of October-December the Historical and Future periods is by increased average monthly which are considered to be the start 84mm per year. ‘Mean Temperature’ as well as of the rainy season. These results average ‘Minimum Temperature’. may be indicative of a delay in The full study includes analyses Furthermore, all provinces are the onset of the traditional rainy of the predicted effect of climate predicted to experience increasing seasons, or alternatively a decrease change on various crops, particularly delays or inconsistencies in the in the effective duration of the rainy cereals (maize, sorghum), legumes CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY IN ANGOLA 1 (beans, groundnuts), and root crops Huambo, Cunene are predicted races or improved cultivars. This (cassava) in each of Angola’s 18 to experience negative impacts study cannot account for indirect provinces. The combined effects of on virtually all crops – the latter effects of climate change on crop reduced precipitation during the areas are likely to require extensive production, such as increased traditional growing seasons and support and capacity-building to vulnerability to pests and disease, increased temperatures will result manage the impacts of climate soil degradation or flooding/ in a complex matrix of positive change on agricultural production waterlogging. However, the study and negative effects on the crops and food security. does find that climate change is assessed. The annual production of likely to result in multiple negative The climate-related risks to critical staple crops such as beans, effects on smallholder farmers in the agricultural households in each maize and sorghum is expected to study area, through disruption of Province are a function of both the be negatively impacted by increased familiar seasonal trends, increased impact of climate change on crop temperatures and reduced or water and heat stress and reduced production, as well as the adaptive delayed rainfall, thereby causing a growing season. In the absence of capacities of each community to reduction in the extent of suitable adequately detailed socio-economic manage and respond to climate production areas as well as reducing data, this study was unable to risks. It is important to note that undertake a rigorous assessment of the productivity of remaining the following analyses are based the adaptive capacities of farming areas. Conversely, certain climate on consideration of a narrow range resilient species such as cassava and of modelled variables and the households in each province – it is groundnuts are comparatively less resultant effects on crop suitability. anticipated that the finalisation of affected by the predicted climate Consequently, this study cannot Angola’s next agricultural census changes and experience mild account for local-level factors such study will contribute useful data positive effects on crop suitability as differences in performance, that will support future initiatives in certain provinces. Arid southern climatic suitability and yield focused on adaptive capacity and provinces such as Namibe, Huila, potential between local land vulnerability to climate change. METHOD AND APPROACH The analyses presented in this one of four hypothetical scenarios study are intended to provide IMPACTS for future global greenhouse an illustrative comparison of The Impacts (I) of climate change on gas emissions proposed by the the potential effects of future crops were estimated by projecting Intergovernmental Panel on Climate climate change on production of the likely future changes to Angola’s Change). This analysis was used to economically important crops, as climate, and then analysing the generate predictions of the effect well as the differential
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