oslo FORUM papers N°006 - December 2016 Understanding fragmentation in conflict and its impact on prospects for peace Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham www.hd centre.org – www.osloforum.org Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue 114, Rue de Lausanne 1202 Geneva | Switzerland t : +41 22 908 11 30 f : +41 22 908 11 40
[email protected] www.hdcentre.org Oslo Forum www.osloforum.org The Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD) is a private diplo- macy organisation founded on the principles of humanity, impartiality and independence. Its mission is to help pre- vent, mitigate, and resolve armed conflict through dialogue and mediation. © 2016 – Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue Reproduction of all or part of this publication may be author- ised only with written consent and acknowledgment of the source. Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham Associate Professor at the Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland
[email protected] http://www.kathleengallaghercunningham.com Table of contents INTRODUCTION 2 1. WHAT IS FRAGMENTATION? 3 Fragmented actors 3 Multiple actors 3 Identifying fragmentation 4 New trends 4 The causes of fragmentation 5 2. THE CONSEQUENCES OF FRAGMENTATION FOR CONFLICT 7 Violence 7 Accommodation and war termination 7 Side switching 8 3. HOW PEACE PROCESSES AFFECT FRAGMENTATION 9 Coalescing 9 Intentional fragmentation 9 Unintentional fragmentation 9 Mediation 10 4. RESPONSES OF MEDIATORS AND OTHER THIRD-PARTY ACTORS TO FRAGMENTATION 11 Negotiations including all armed groups 11 Sequential negotiations 11 Inclusion of unarmed actors and national dialogue 12 Efforts to coalesce the opposition 13 5. AFTER SETTLEMENT 14 CONCLUSION 15 ENDNOTES 16 2 The Oslo Forum Papers | Understanding fragmentation in conflict Introduction Complicated conflicts with many disparate actors have cators of fragmentation, new trends, and a summation of why become increasingly common in the international system.