This electronic thesis or dissertation has been downloaded from the King’s Research Portal at https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/ The making of hazard: a social-environmental explanation of vulnerability to drought in Djibouti Daher Aden, Ayanleh Awarding institution: King's College London The copyright of this thesis rests with the author and no quotation from it or information derived from it may be published without proper acknowledgement. END USER LICENCE AGREEMENT Unless another licence is stated on the immediately following page this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ You are free to copy, distribute and transmit the work Under the following conditions: Attribution: You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). 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Oct. 2021 The making of a hazard: a social-environmental explanation of vulnerability to drought in Djibouti Thesis submitted to King’s College London For the degree of Doctor of Philosophy By Ayanleh Daher Aden Department of Geography Faculty of Social Science and Public Policy December 2014 “The key to riding the wave of chaos is not to resist it, but to allow yourself to know you are a part of the energy of chaos, allowing a new form of organization in it, rather than imposing your old system organization upon it. - Bashar 2 Abstract This research addresses the aetiology of current chronic socio-environmental vulnerability of rural households to the hazard known as ‘drought’ in the country of Djibouti. Tracing the main forces of change affecting the sustainable practice of pastoralism is akin to studying the social production of vulnerability. The exercise forms an integral part of Wisner et al’s Disaster Pressure and Release (PAR) model which is used here to shed light on the mechanisms and the path of change from root causes of vulnerability up to the appearance of unsafe conditions. Based on information from primary research conducted with pastoral communities, relevant secondary sources and raw historical rainfall data, the study generates novel data on communities’ exposure to risk, vulnerability and coping capacities associated with food insecurity in the face of drought. The first part of the thesis explores the ‘root causes’ of vulnerability to drought in Djibouti, i.e. the process of border-making, the imposition of geographical boundaries to pastoral life, division and power disequilibrium between the Afars and the Somali-Ise and the gradual weakening of traditional organizational systems’ legitimacy. The second link in the chain of explanation corresponds to dynamic processes which are by-products of root causes. They include regional and internal influences on rurality and the effects of Djibouti’s progressive entry into the world economy on rural livelihoods. Finally, the third part of the thesis investigates the nature and creation of ‘unsafe conditions’ of the Afar and Somali-Ise pastoral communities under study. These conditions correspond to hazardous locations of living, the fragility of pastoral livelihoods and the reinforcing impacts from non-drought hazards on their vulnerability to drought. The thesis demonstrates that rather than the hazard itself, it is the historical accumulation of factors of vulnerability and eventually the nature of current rural households’ unsafe conditions that are responsible for their present chronic vulnerability to drought in the study areas. 3 Acknowledgements In the United Kingdom (UK), I would like to thank the Royal Geographical Society’s financial help by awarding me the Dudley Stamp Memorial to partially fund this research. I would also like to send my thanks to King’s College London, its Department of Geography and the members of the Environment, Politics and Development Research group, including Dr Daanish Mustafa, for their support, encouragement and guidance. In particular, I cannot thank enough Dr Debby Potts, my thesis supervisor, friend and long-time guide through the meanders of rural vulnerability research in East Africa. I sincerely hope that this dissertation honors the time and dedication she gratefully contributed to this research. I am also grateful for my encounter with Dr Frank Eierdanz in Kaiserslautern (Germany), who has provided me with inspiring knowledge about assessing uncertainty in the face of droughts. In addition, I thank Dr Laura Hammond (Department of Development Studies at SOAS, London, UK) and Dr Benjamin Wisner (Aon-Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, University College London & Environmental Studies Program, Oberlin College, Oberlin, OH, USA) for having kindly examined this work and for sharing precious research insights to extend and build on this study’s findings. In Djibouti, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Water and Fisheries (MAPE-RH), the Ministry of Interior (MID) and the Executive Secretariat for Disaster Risk Management (SEGRC). In particular, special thanks are addressed to Mr Djama ‘Séraphin’ (Technical adviser to the Minister) who was my focal point at the Ministry of Agriculture (MAPE-RH) and whose help in obtaining various authorizations was crucial for my fieldwork inland. My thanks also go to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN) which allowed me to do my fieldwork during my consultancy. In particular, I underline Mr Abdoulkader Ismail (Deputy FAO-Djibouti Representative), Mr Dany Lanoë (Emergency Programme Manager) and Mr Omar Osman (Programme Monitoring and Evaluation)’s 4 continuous support and encouragement throughout my time at FAO and in Djibouti in general. In thanking ACF-France, I extend my deep gratitude to Ms Marie Sardier (FSL Advisor) and Ms Sandrine Roussy (DRM Advisor) for their guidance and advice in successfully completing the Participatory Vulnerability and Capacity Assessments (PVCAs). With regards to ACF-Djibouti, my thanks naturally go to Mr Nicolas Faraüs (Country Director) and Mr Yann Capponi (Head, DRM/FSL Department) for their understanding, continued support and valuable experience. I am especially grateful for the kindness and help provided to me by my close friends and colleagues Ms Cécilia Séhabiague (Head, Human Resources Department), Mr Haladou L. Mahaman Zailani (Programme Manager, WASH) and Mr Gustave Gnagny (Programme Manager, WASH). For the effective completion of the PVCAs and the Coping Strategy Indexes (CSIs), I would like to sincerely thank the full involvement, patience, dedication and determination of Mr Abdillahi Ismael Sougueh, Mr Aden Mirgan Mirgan, Ms. Ismahan Ali Omar, Mr Mohamed Mohamed Abdoulkader, Mr Mohamed Ibrahim, Ms Hasna Ismael Moyale, Ms. Halima Houmad Gadito and Dr Abdo Alawan Isse who were the undisputed pillars behind the data gathering process. In Dikhil region, I thank the Prefecture and the Regional Council of Dikhil for their support, involvement and for sharing invaluable knowledge about local issues. In particular, I would like to address my special thanks to Mr Mohamed Cheiko (Prefect of Dikhil), Mr Idriss Houssein Abass (Focal point for the SEGRC), Mr Abdourahman Yonis Arreh (President of Dikhil’s Regional Council) and Mr Houmed Ibrahim Idriss (Vice-President of Dikhil’s Regional Council) for their advice, wisdom and availability throughout the fieldwork. They were key players in its effective implementation and completion. At the very local level, I would like to address a special recognition note to both men and women pastoralists and agro-pastoralists from the local communities of Sankal, Hanlé 2, Koutabouya, Dadahalou and Bondora for their time and without whom this research project would have never seen the light of day. At a more personal level, I take this opportunity to sincerely thank Mr Djama Mahmoud Haid (Allah Yerhamo) and his wife, Ms Choukri Hassan Doualeh, for their invaluable support throughout my time spent in Djibouti. Likewise, I extend my profound gratitude to Mr Djama 5 Guedi and his family whose generosity, kindness and help during my time in Dikhil City and Sankal were unparalleled. Concerning the impetus behind this research project, I would like to thank my lifelong friend, Abderrahmane Tebbal and my closest cousin, Kenedid-Anwar Aidarousse Daher (Mohamed), whose moral support, encouragement and sense of humor were the best weapons against the pitfalls of solitary research. I would also like to underline the love, patience and tolerance of one of my closest friends, Houda Ahmed Malow, who stayed solid as a rock and supportive through my ups and downs. Finally, I thank my cousins, aunts and uncles who have always believed in me. I also would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to my grandmother, Mariam Hassan Farah, for her tireless encouragements and support during both my fieldwork and writing-up stage. Last but not least, I will never thank enough my parents, Anne N’Zaou Daher Aden and Daher Daher Aden, and sisters, Keensy Daher Aden and Ilienka Daher Aden, for having always been there for me in times of need and for being my source of motivation for as long as I can remember. This work was funded by the Dudley Stamp Memorial Award and myself with the logistical support of the FAO-UN and ACF-International. This document should be cited as: Daher Aden, A. (2014). The making of a hazard: a social-environmental explanation of vulnerability to drought in Djibouti. Department of Geography.