EURASIA The Impact of Azerbaijan’s Statements

OE Watch Commentary: The governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan often make statements that highlight the capabilities of their respective armed forces and periodically threaten each other with consequences if fighting over Karabakh were to resume. The accompanying excerpted articles are examples of these types of statements, but there is a notable difference that shows how the conflict has changed. The article from Baki Xabar, a pro-government Azerbaijani newspaper, includes a statement from Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev on how Azerbaijan’s army “took under its control part of occupied territories during the April 2016 clashes as well as the wider area it liberated on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Nakhchivan front following successful operations Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh_conflict#/media/File:Nagorno-Karabakh_Map2.png, CC 4.0 in May 2018.” The excerpt from Interfax includes another statement from Aliyev a few weeks later, where he states that Azerbaijan’s military “freed a part of the occupied lands in the Agdam, Fuzuli, and Jabrayil districts” in reference to the April 2016 clash.

The excerpt from AzTv is an interview with Azerbaijan’s Defense Minister, Zakir Hasanov, and he makes the same reference on how Azerbaijani forces took territory in April 2016, though his statement comes as an apparent response to the Armenian defense minister’s recent comment of a “new war in exchange for new territories.” He goes on to claim that only a fraction of the Azerbaijani army “defeated the Armenian army within three or four days” and noted the patriotism “Azerbaijani army officers and civilians demonstrated during the April fighting.” The statements from Azerbaijani officials come on the three year anniversary of the April clashes and while they are similar to past claims of capabilities, the clashes in April 2016 and May 2018 are notable for territory exchanging hands for the first time since the 1990s. If steps taken by the Armenian government for the development of its armed forces over the past couple of years are any indication (see: “Armenia’s “Offensive” Strategy?,” OE Watch, April 2019; and “Gauging Armenian and Azerbaijani Military Exercises,” OE Watch, November 2018), statements like these are being listened to and could have an impact. End OE Watch Commentary (Stein)

“The April fighting was a highly successful operation from the military point of view, considering that crucial, strategic heights were taken over.”

Source: Tahir Taghiyev, “Status-kvonu bundan artıq saxlamaq cəhdi – Ermənistan hər an müharibəni tətikləyir... (An Attempt To Further Extend Status Quo -- Armenia Will Trigger War at Any Moment…),” Baki Xabar, 19 March 2019. http://www.baki-xeber.com/siyaset/89402. html …President Ilham Aliyev has said on many occasions that the Azerbaijani Army has worthily responded to the enemy and it will continue to do so like it did when it took part of the occupied territories under its control during the April 2016 clashes as well as the wider area it liberated on the Nakhchivan front following successful operations in May 2018…

Source: “Aliyev describes April war in Karabakh as one of Azerbaijan’s most successful military operations,” Interfax, 2 April 2019. http:// www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?id=895427 …“The Azerbaijani army accomplished a highly successful operation aimed at stopping Armenia’s provocations and freed a part of the occupied lands in the Agdam, Fuzuli, and Jabrayil districts,” Aliyev said. “The April fighting was a highly successful operation from the military point of view, considering that crucial, strategic heights were taken over,” he said.

Source: “EKSKLÜZİV MÜSAHİBƏ: Müdafiə naziri Zakir Həsənov “Günün nəbzi” proqramının qonağı oldu - 03.04.2019 (EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW: Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov was the guest of the “Pulse of the Day” program - 03.04.2019),” AzTv, 3 April 2019. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6qT8LtutVE …Asked to comment on the phrase “new war in exchange for new territories”, uttered by Armenia’s defence minister regarding the Karabakh territorial conflict between the two countries, Hasanov said the remark was only meant for domestic consumption in Armenia…Hasanov commented on the April 2016 fighting, in which Azerbaijan reclaimed some of its land held by ethnic Armenian troops…He said the results for the Armenians were “catastrophic” as “20 per cent of the Azerbaijani army” defeated the Armenian army within three or four days. He also praised the patriotism that he said Azerbaijani army officers and civilians demonstrated during the April fighting…

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