MARCH-2021

BULLETIN

Table of contents

I. Zangazur corridor will strengthen regional cooperation and reconnect the Turkic world 2

II. Armenia refuses to hand over landmine maps to Azerbaijan 3

III. Azerbaijan Warns Against Armenian provocations that might undermine the peace process 5

IV. Azerbaijan embraces smart tech solutions to revive liberated Karabakh 7

V. Azerbaijan pushes forward with coronavirus vaccination drive despite the COVAX letdown 8

VI. Participation of foreign fighters in Armenian military offensives during the Second Karabakh War 10

VII. The outcome of the Second Karabakh War for Armenia 2

I. Zangazur corridor will Armenia. Azerbaijan is fully committed to strengthen regional cooperation the creation of this corridor and restoration and reconnect the Turkic world of transport links as it considers cooperation to be the main tool for creating sustainable On March 31, an informal Summit of the peace in the region. The creation of the Cooperation Council of the Turkic-Speaking Zangazur corridor will add a new artery to States (Turkic Council) was held in a video the transportation network of Eurasia and conference format. Referring to a transport positively affect the economic and trade corridor that will pass through Zangazur and relations between the regional countries. link mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan Using this corridor Turkey will get a direct exclave and further to Turkey, President land road to Azerbaijan, boosting bilateral Ilham Aliyev underscored the importance of economic and tourism relations between the this corridor in reconnecting the once two countries. On the other hand, the separated Turkic world. The opening of the Zangazur corridor will also serve as a corridor is part of the peace deal signed gateway to Central Asia for Turkey, enabling between Azerbaijan and Armenia with it to strengthen its economic relations with Moscow's mediation on 10 November 2020 the Turkic World. Turkey is also working on a that ended the 44-day Karabakh war. “The new project to connect Nakhchivan to war is over, and the conflict belongs to Turkey through the Kars-Nakhchivan history. New opportunities have emerged. I railway. In the next stage, the linkage of this think the most critical opportunity among railway to the Zangazur Corridor will give these is transportation. We are already another impetus to the bilateral trade working very hard on the Zangazur corridor. relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey. At the Summit in Nakhchivan, I said that the For Russia, this corridor could become the decision to separate Zangazur from main route for the transportation of goods Azerbaijan and annex it to Armenia led to a to the South Caucasus and surrounding geographical divide of the Turkic world. If we countries. Russian trains could reach the look at the map, it looks as if a dagger was Zangazur corridor through the territory of stuck in our body and the Turkic world was Azerbaijan and then be directed to Armenia, separated. Zangazur, the land of ancient Turkey, Iran and Southern Asian countries. Azerbaijan, will now play the role of uniting Along with positively affecting the trade the Turkic world because the transportation, relations with Turkey, this corridor will also communication and infrastructure projects provide an alternative route for Russia to across Zangazur will unite the entire Turkic reach the markets of the Middle East world and create additional opportunities through the territory of Turkey. Besides, this for other countries, including Armenia, corridor has special importance for Russia in President Ilham Aliyev noted. terms of getting a direct land route to The establishment of the Zangazur corridor Armenia, one of its main allies in the region. is one the most important elements of the The Zangazur corridor and unblocking of all signed documents between Azerbaijan, economic communications will also increase Russia and Armenia and it serves the the attractiveness of the region for foreign interests of all regional countries, including investors. Despite the implementation of Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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several important energy and transport security. In this new situation, we must be projects in the South Caucasus for many able to assess the opportunities that exist in years, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has terms of lifting the blockade of Armenia” negatively affected the business adding that “we must be able to make environment and left Armenia isolated from decisions that will ensure the long-term the regional projects. Now, as the conflict sustainable development of the Republic of ended, regional countries have the Armenia, and in a sense, the long-term opportunity for the full use of the economic sustainable development of the region is potential of the region, to attract additional also within our area of responsibility". In this investments to different project context, the January 11th meeting of the implementations, which was not possible deputy prime ministers of Azerbaijan, due to the conflict. Russia, and Armenia in Moscow is a positive Armenia also recognizes the benefits of co- signal towards this goal. It became the first operation within regional transportation and trilateral meeting to discuss future peace in other communication projects. Through this the region. The sides agreed to establish corridor, Armenia will have a railway link expert subgroups to deal with the provision with its ally Russia and with neighboring Iran. of transport, including security, border, At the same time, this route will connect customs, sanitary, veterinary, and other Azerbaijan to Turkey and Central Asia to types of control relating to rail, road, and Europe. On 15 February, President Ilham combined transport. Aliyev inaugurated the construction of the At the same time, despite these positive 100-km Horadiz-Aghbend railway that would dynamics, there are still significant go along the Azerbaijani-Iranian border up to challenges and obstacles in implementing all the Armenian border and would be part of clauses of the November 10th agreement. As the rail link connecting mainland Azerbaijan Orkhan Baghirov, a leading advisor at the to Nakhchivan via the Zangazur corridor Center of Analysis of International Relations through Armenia. On March 30, Armenian (AIR Center), has put it, “Armenia could Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan chaired a benefit from the mentioned advantages of meeting of the Security Council that the Zangazur corridor only if it chooses to discussed the unblocking of regional prefer regional cooperation over the transport communications. Opening the aggressive policy against its neighbors that it meeting, Pashinyan said that Armenia has been implementing for almost three should be able to assess new opportunities decades”. If Armenia wants to end its in terms of eliminating its regional transport economic isolation and get economic blockade and be ready for cooperation. “The development opportunities, the only way blockade has alienated the Republic of forward is to join regional cooperation. Armenia from the region to some extent. For Otherwise, the same economic situation example, we have only one land route [via accompanied by high unemployment, Georgia] with our strategic partner [Russia], emigration and poverty will remain in which is seasonal; it largely depends on the Armenia, eliminating its long-term economic weather conditions, which in turn brings development perspectives. many challenges, including in terms of Unfortunately, there are worrying signs Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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showing that peace is still not something of the war. The liberated territories of Armenia strives for in relations with Karabakh are among the most mined Azerbaijan. While Azerbaijan handed over of territories in the world. In his speech during 1400 bodies of Armenian servicemen, the informal Summit of the Cooperation Armenia in exchange returned only around Council of the Turkic Council on March 31, 100 bodies of Azerbaijani servicemen. While President Ilham Aliyev noted that Azerbaijan released Maral Najaryan – a “everything in the liberated lands has been Lebanese citizen, who entered Azerbaijani destroyed… Armenians have ravaged our territory illegally and subsequently detained cities, annihilated our historical sites, in Karabakh – facilitated humanitarian aid to plowed the cemeteries, knocked down the Armenian community of Karabakh, gravestones, and wrecked more than 60 permitted Armenians to visit the Khudavang mosques and kept cows and pigs in semi- Monastery in Kalbajar, and allowed the demolished ones… After the war, many transportation of Russian natural gas to Azerbaijani civilians and servicemen were Armenia via Azerbaijan, Armenia has tried to killed and wounded by landmines. Armenia smuggle Armenian troops to Karabakh via has not yet presented the maps of the Lachin corridor and refused to provide minefields to us. That is another war crime. maps of minefields. The landmine legacy is a Therefore, demining will take more time. significant challenge in the post-conflict Without completing this work, of course, we period. The Karabakh region has one of the will not be able to return our IDPs and largest mine contamination problems in the refugees to those lands”. post-Soviet space, and it is very difficult to The liberated territories have been remove all landmines without maps of the considerably mined, especially civilian minefields. The Armenian refusal to provide infrastructure, water canals, crossroads, maps of the minefields to Azerbaijan could cemeteries, riverbanks, rural and urban derail any peace efforts and integration paths. According to Azerbaijan Mine Action processes. Agency (ANAMA), “sometimes more than 10 mines per square meter are found in the II. Armenia refuses to hand over mined areas”. Demining and the clearance of landmine maps to Azerbaijan the liberated territories of unexploded ordnance and other explosive objects is one Armenia is still refusing to provide of the most pressing issues after the war. “In Azerbaijan with maps on the location of one of the latest mine explosions that mines set up during its three-decades-long occurred on March 16 in Aghdam region, six occupation of Karabakh. As a result, civilians suffered, two of them killed,” the Azerbaijani civilians and troops continue to Foreign Minister of the Republic of be killed and injured by those explosives. Azerbaijan Jeyhun Bayramov said at a joint Around 20 Azerbaijani citizens, including news conference with his Slovak counterpart civilians, have been killed and more than 70 Ivan Korcok in Baku on March 17, defining people have been wounded by mine this as “the continuation of Armenia’s explosions scattered throughout the aggression against Azerbaijan” and calling territories Armenia occupied since the end upon the international community to Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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pressure Armenia to share the minefield and other international organizations to maps. The international humanitarian law is accelerate demining process. The UN has clear about the prohibition of the provided $2 million to support the indiscriminate use of landmines. The fact emergency humanitarian response in that Armenia is unwilling to share with conflict-affected areas of Azerbaijan. With Azerbaijan its mine-laying records and maps an additional $1 million from United Nations in order for them to be used to guide Development Programme (UNDP) Crisis demining operations in the liberated Response and the UN’s Central Emergency territories is a clear war crime that Yerevan Response Fund, UNDP will provide support continues to commit without any to ANAMA to train, equip, and deploy repercussions. Moreover, Yerevan’s refusal emergency response teams to clear mines to abide by the international law and co- and unexploded bombs that pose risks to operate on this sensitive matter despite ever local communities living in conflict-affected increasing number of the victims rightfully zones. enrages the Azerbaijani side, further There is a good foundation to launch a new straining the regional situation and chapter in relations between Azerbaijan and hindering the emergence of a co-operative Armenia. Economic integration initiatives environment between the two countries. and unlocking of all transport links as laid out The demining of the entire liberated lands in the November peace agreement could be could take more than twenty years and is a powerful tool for achieving sustainable further complicated by the mountainous peace and stability in the region. Armenia’s nature of Karabakh. Dr Vasif Huseynov, a refusal to give access to landmine maps is senior advisor at the Center of Analysis of currently one of the biggest obstacles International Relations (AIR Center), has towards regional peace and prosperity. In noted that the international support that this context, Armenia providing records Baku has received helps to accelerate the showing where landmines have been process but does not solve the issue in the planted could give an additional boost to the needed timeframe, adding that Yerevan has reconciliation process, ease tensions and no sensible alternative but to co-operate in encourage peaceful coexistence while also the demining of Karabakh since every mine addressing humanitarian concerns in the that kills civilians is also a blow to the peace region. process. At the same time, as Shahmar Hajiyev, a leading advisor in the Center of III. Azerbaijan Warns Against Analysis of International Relations (AIR Armenian provocations that Center) pointed out, a total mine clearance might undermine the peace of the liberated lands is critical for process sustainable development and the region’s revival. It is this process that will affect the On March 14, President Ilham Aliyev settlement of Azerbaijani internally received the delegation of the Organization displaced persons (IDPs) and the region’s for Security and Cooperation in Europe economic integration process the most. (OSCE), led by this year’s OSCE chairperson- Therefore, Baku is cooperating with the UN in-office, Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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Linde. During their meeting, President Ilham armed forces from the territories of Aliyev reiterated his positive assessment of Azerbaijan. According to the document, the post-war situation in relations between concurrently with the deployment of Armenia and Azerbaijan stating, “We think Russia’s peacekeeping contingent, Armenian [the] four months [that] passed after [the troops were required to withdraw from the second Karabakh] war already demonstrate region. What happens weeks after the the will of both sides to turn the page [of signing of this document and establishment enmity] and to concentrate on the future”. of ceasefire is extremely alarming and Moreover, President Ilham Aliyev also undermines all the regional and reaffirmed his support for the launch of international initiatives for peace between transportation and communication channels Armenia and Azerbaijan. There are reports between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as agreed from multiple sources about Armenia’s in the November ceasefire statement, attempts to deploy its armed personnel to adding that this can serve as a “starting the Karabakh region, internationally point” for opening a new chapter in relations recognized part of Azerbaijan, through the between the two sides, finally “leaving the “Lachin Corridor” in total disregard to both conflict to history”. On the issue of POWs, the trilateral statement and international Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jeyhun Bayramov law. This was the concern raised by Jeyhun stated during his meeting with the OSCE Bayramov, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister, in Chair-in-Office, Ann Linde that Azerbaijan his letter addressed to the Secretary-General has already returned all POWs and of the United Nations dated March 1, 2021. exchanged bodies, and that those captured “According to the credible information in the liberated Azerbaijani territories after available to the Azerbaijani side, which is the November 10 declaration was signed do also validated by the reports of independent not count as POWs, but are terrorists. mass media sources, members of armed Despite the optimistic tone, President Ilham forces of Armenia, wearing civilian dress, are Aliyev and other senior officials continue to transferred to the territory of Azerbaijan repeatedly raise concerns about the threats through the “Lachin Corridor” in civilian to the precarious balance established by trucks, including disguised among the trilateral accord and to subsequent peace construction cargo, in an attempt to escape process. One of the elements of the the control procedures of the Russian statement that was meant to serve the peacekeeping contingent”, Minister of peace and reconciliation process was Foreign Affairs Bayramov noted. concerning the provision of stable The deployment of Armenian armed forces communication between the Karabakh to the Azerbaijani territories is also region of Azerbaijan and Armenia via the so- confirmed by the fact that the parents and called “Lachin Corridor” of which security is relatives of Armenian soldiers who reject the provided by the Russian peacekeepers. This transfer to the territories of another state corridor was supposed to be used for have publicly come together protesting this entirely non-military purposes in line with illegal practice of the Armenian government. another clause of the trilateral document “Armenian servicemen and their relatives that committed Armenia to withdraw its have voiced serious allegations of human Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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rights abuses, in particular torture and recurring radicalistic and revanchist slogans inhumane treatment, against the personnel in Armenian society stating that “Armenia deployed into territories of Azerbaijan”, should always be ready for war” has been in stated in the Minister of Foreign Affairs line with other provocative behavior from Bayramov’s letter to the UN Secretary- the Armenian side lately: using the Lachin General. Corridor for military purposes after the The sabotage operations and provocations November 10 agreement, transferring by the Armenian armed forces are alarming armed militias into the liberated Azerbaijani repercussions that would spiral out of territories to carry out acts of sabotage, later control if not properly countered. “It should demanding the release of those terrorists as be recalled that it was the transfer of prisoner of war (POW), refusal to give Armenian conscripts into the territory of Azerbaijan the map of the mined areas in the Azerbaijan in late November last year that liberated territories, sending out mixed eventually led to serious military tension. signals about Armenia’s intent to fulfill the Thus, the sabotage group of 62 Armenian November 10 declaration. Such actions servicemen committed a series of attacks on create a sense of insecurity around the the Azerbaijani military and civilians, causing already tenuous prospects of peace in the casualties and injuries, before being region. These threats and challenges to the detained as a result of an anti-terror post-war peace process are also exacerbated operation”, the letter informed the by the Armenian side’s refusal to Secretary General in his letter that was characterize the Karabakh conflict as circulated as General Assembly of the United “resolved”. The domestic political instability Nations (UN GA) and United Nations Security in Armenia and the pressure posed by more Council (UN SC) document. hardline political and military forces to the The deployment of Armenian armed government of Prime Minister Nikol personnel to the territories of Azerbaijan is a Pashinyan further strain tensions between move that drastically challenges the Yerevan and Baku, necessitating vigilance precarious balance established by the and intervention on the part of the trilateral statement and serves as a call for international community against destructive future armed confrontations. This threat is trends in the region. As Dr. Esmira Jafarova, reinforced by the internal domestic quarrels a Board Member of the Center of Analysis of within the Armenian government and the International Relations (AIR Center), pointed army’s attempts to topple the incumbent out, “there were no winners from the thirty- government. As Dr Farid Shafiyev, Chairman year-long occupation of Azerbaijani of the Center for Analysis of International territories; however, everyone in the South Relations (AIR Center), pointed out, “so far, Caucasus region suffered the dire the modern political discourse in Armenian consequences of the Armenia–Azerbaijan society and the diaspora has not changed. conflict”. As the last three decades tragically The nationalist dream of revenge and demonstrated, the only way to achieve messages about the “status” of Karabakh, enduring peace is for all sides of the conflict which entail the continuation of the conflict, to accept new security architecture based on still prevail in the political discourse”. The the principle of territorial integrity and Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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mutual respect for international borders— and up to 500 Mw of wind energy potential. on the basis of which, minority rights can The process of establishing a green energy then be developed. There is no alternative to zone has already started and the Energy peace in the South Caucasus, and this is why Ministry of Azerbaijan had meetings with Pax Caucasia is the only way forward. international financial institutions. At the meetings, the organization of renewable IV. Azerbaijan embraces smart tech energy auctions and the possibility of solutions to revive liberated attracting private investments were Karabakh discussed. Along with discussions of green energy projects, other energy projects have Azerbaijan is planning to adopt innovative already started. Currently, two power lines approaches with technology, policy, and are being laid to Shusha. The “Azerishiq in management to achieve more sustainable Karabakh” project is being implemented to growth and development in the liberated provide electricity to government buildings. territories after the Second Karabakh War. Works are also underway for the restoration The main goal is to utilize technology of hydroelectric power plants (HPP) that integration and smart solutions as the were destroyed by the Armenian occupants. conduit for rebuilding the region. The The 8-megawatt Gulabird HPP in Lachin government also sees smart development as region has already been put into operation. an opportunity to use technology as a boost Restoration and reconstruction of two and catalyst for economic growth in hydroelectric power plants in Sugovushan, Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan plans to use the Khudaferin and Qiz Qalasi HPPs in Jabrayil technology-based approach for the urban and Shukurbayli HPP in Fuzuli are also planning in Karabakh. The cities and villages underway. in the liberated territories will be re- The three-decade-long occupation have established based on the “smart city” and resulted in massive destruction in Karabakh. “smart village” concepts. “Smart city” Armenia has almost completely destroyed solutions will create effective municipality- the existing infrastructure in the occupied to-resident interaction, high quality of territories, razing most of the cities and government services and citizen welfare. villages to the ground. Agdam faced the The first smart village will be built in the most extreme destruction and was dubbed Aghali village of the Zangilan region. It is the “Hiroshima of the Caucasus.” According planned to build 200 houses in the village to the UN estimates, the total economic and the energy supply of the village will be damage of the occupation was around $53.5 provided by only alternative energy sources. billion. According to the Military One of the main goals of Azerbaijan in the Prosecutor’s Office of Azerbaijan, if all the restoration process is to provide energy material and environmental destruction is security to the liberated territories and taken into account, the total damage that create a “Green Energy Zone”. Thus, priority Azerbaijan is faced with is about $819 billion. will be given to the use of renewable energy With the end of the occupation, Azerbaijan sources. It is estimated that liberated now aims to fully revive the liberated territories have more than 4,000 Mw of solar territories. Despite the fact that the scale of Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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the devastation makes the economic Azerbaijani soldiers to liberate Shusha city, recovery process complex and time- the cultural center of Azerbaijan. Therefore, consuming, Azerbaijan wants to transform President Ilham Aliyev named it “The Road the liberated territories into areas of high- to Victory.” Along with the Ahmadbeyli- tech development. Thus, immediately after Fuzuli-Shusha highway in the southern part the war, the plan for socio-economic of Karabakh, Azerbaijan plans to construct development of the liberated territories was the Horadiz-Zangilan-Qubadli-Lachin road. prepared and the reconstruction process has It is also planned to connect Horadiz with started. For the efficient organization of the Fuzuli and Shusa by railway. Currently, this recovery process “Coordination project is in its planning stage and the Headquarters” and 17 working groups on construction of this railway is expected to different areas were established. Initially, start in 2021. Other railway projects include $2.2 billion is planned to be allocated in the the Barda-Aghdam railroad which is part of 2021 budget for the restoration process. the Yevlakh-Khankendi railway (104 km). The These funds will be used for the formation of construction of a 45-kilometer section from infrastructure and ensuring the availability Barda to Agdam has already started and of utilities. At the next stage, priority will be initially, $2.94 million has been allocated. given to private and foreign investments. The Horadiz-Agband railway will also be The first steps taken in the restoration restored. This road is one of the main process were the construction of roads and components of the Zangazur corridor. In the highways. The first transport project, which northern part of Karabakh, Azerbaijan works was launched during the war was the on the Toganalı-Kalbacar highway project. reconstruction of roads connecting Tartar With an approximate length of 190 km, this city with Sugovushan and Talish villages in highway will get through the Murovdag the North-East direction of Karabakh. The mountain range and will be extended to the total length of highways is 28.5 km and the Istisu resort area. At some points, the first stage of reconstruction of these altitude of the highway will reach 3500 highways has already been completed. At meters. Therefore, it is planned to build the next stage, it is also planned to restore several tunnels with a total length of 10-12 the roads from Naftalan City to the Talysh km in order to avoid possible transportation village with a length of 22 km. The other difficulties in the winter. This highway will be important transport project is the also extended to the Lachin district. All the Ahmadbeyli-Fuzuli-Shusha highway, which is mentioned transport projects will create the 101.5 km in length and reduces the distance necessary infrastructure to reach Kalbajar from the capital Baku to Shusha to about 363 and Lachin regions both from northern and km. Initially, $29.4 million were allocated for southern directions. the construction and these highways are Along with highways and railways, the expected to be completed by late 2021 or Azerbaijani government also plans to build 2022. The final part of this road which three airports in the liberated territories. connects Fuzuli and Shusha has a symbolic The first airport project is the Fuzuli meaning for Azerbaijan as the road passes International Airport, the foundation of from the territory that was used by the which was laid on January 14. The runway of Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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the airport is 2,800 meters long and it is “The promise to provide Azerbaijan with the going to be commissioned this year. The new appropriate vaccine within the framework of airport will facilitate the travel of foreign the COVAX initiative has not been fulfilled to visitors and tourists to the liberated date,” spokesperson for the State Agency for territories, especially to Shusha. Fuzuli- Compulsory Medical Insurance of Azerbaijan Shusha highway will be connected to the said in March. It was expected that Fuzuli airport, which will make it easier for Azerbaijan would get two million doses of a foreign visitors to travel to Shusha. It is also Covid-19 vaccine as part of the COVAX planned to build other airports in Lachin and campaign, but was later revealed that Zangilan districts. Azerbaijan was not included in the list of 18 Establishing a green energy zone and smart countries that would be provided with villages will create substantial opportunities Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines by COVAX. Such an for sustainable economic growth. attitude towards Azerbaijan is not only Reconstruction of transport networks and wrong, but also run counter to COVAX’s establishment of airports in the liberated objectives. territories will boost trade relations and will Despite the apparent failure of the COVAX create a favorable environment for the full platform at this stage, Azerbaijan is swiftly usage of tourism opportunities. As a result, moving forward with its vaccination Azerbaijan will be able to use lost campaign. As of March 29, 536871 people, opportunities and resources and bring the or 5 percent of the country’s population, share of liberated territories in the economy have already been vaccinated. Azerbaijan to pre-occupation levels. Economic purchased 4 million doses of the Chinese development in turn will contribute to the CoronaVAC vaccine for its vaccination maintenance of sustainable peace and open rollout. Two million people is expected to be prospects for future reconciliation between vaccinated with CoronaVac. Moreover, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan will get 432000 doses of AstraZeneca and 300000 doses of Sputnik V V. Azerbaijan pushes forward with vaccines as well. coronavirus vaccination drive President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly despite the COVAX letdown underscored the significance of the joint fight of the countries of the world against Azerbaijan has criticized the COVID-19 the coronavirus pandemic and close Vaccine Global Access Facility (COVAX) for cooperation in this area. Ever since its early not providing the country with Covid-19 days, the COVID-19 pandemic has been a vaccines. Azerbaijan was one of the first 50 true test of multilateralism, exposing the countries to join the WHO-led COVAX cracks and weaknesses within the platform aimed at ensuring the fair and international system. Throughout its equitable distribution of Covid-19 vaccines development, certain aspects of the to every country. However, recently pandemic have been politicized, with some Azerbaijan was informed by the COVAX countries putting their nationalistic agendas platform that in the near future they will not above the collective health of the be able to provide Azerbaijan with vaccines. international community. Among the Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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unfortunate tendencies ignited by the the pandemic, Azerbaijan has decided to pandemic, the most recent and the most take a NAM-wise coordinated approach pressing one today is what has been referred towards this crisis and has chosen a to as “vaccine nationalism”. Global vaccine multilateralist approach with initiatives like distribution has been neither fair nor equal, the online Summit of the Non-Aligned with even developed countries quarrelling Movement (NAM) called “United Against amongst themselves about the distribution COVID-19” held under Azerbaijani of vaccines. In February, President Ilham chairmanship in May 2020. Delivering a Aliyev pointed out the unjust and unequal statement on behalf of 120 Member States access to vaccines. While developed of the NAM at a Special Session of the United countries account for 14 percent of the Nations General Assembly in Response to world's population, they have booked 53 the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) percent of the world's supply of vaccines, Pandemic in December of 2020, President President Aliyev said, adding that more than Ilham Aliyev stated that “NAM stresses the 95 percent of Moderna and Pfizer vaccines importance of affordable, unhindered and have been ordered by rich countries. “But equitable access by all countries to what should the citizens of poor countries medicines, vaccines and medical equipment, do? Get sick? When they get sick, they are which should constitute an integral part of a more likely to die because the health care coordinated and effective global response to system in such countries is by far worse than COVID-19”. On March 23, 2021, within the that of developed countries. Therefore, we framework of the 46th session of the UN must talk about these issues and not hush Human Rights Council, on the initiative of them up,” President Ilham Aliyev said. Azerbaijan as the chairman of the Non- From a moral point of view, vaccine Aligned Movement, a resolution was nationalism is not only causing the pandemic adopted entitled "Ensuring equal, to last, but it also has the potential of leading affordable, timely and universal access to to preventable deaths of the most vaccines against COVID-19". The resolution vulnerable populations in developing calls on UN Member States and other countries. Vaccinating those at low risks in relevant bodies (international organizations, countries without or before vaccinating private sector representatives, civil society those at high risk is inevitably causing members, etc.) to take appropriate preventable deaths. As the incumbent measures to ensure that COVID-19 vaccines chairman of the Non-Aligned Movement are distributed fairly among all states. The (NAM), the largest international resolution, which expresses support for organization after the United Nations, international initiatives created to support Azerbaijan holds not just a moral but an equitable distribution of vaccines, including official responsibility to advocate for equal the COVAX initiative, calls on all states to vaccine distribution. Azerbaijan has remove unnecessary barriers on the export provided humanitarian assistance to more of vaccines to other countries. than 30 countries in the fight against COVID- Referring to the row between the European 19 and donated $10 million to the World Union and the United Kingdom about Health Organization. Since the beginning of vaccine distribution during an interview to Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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national television, President Aliyev stated countries will be achieved only by 2024, new “If developed countries can’t share these variants are bound to emerge, threatening vaccines fairly and make mutual accusations, the progress towards stabilization. Unless then what should other countries do? Who international collaboration is strengthened will help poor countries, those living in in the vaccination program, the virus will developing countries? Doesn’t anyone think continue to circulate, mutate, cause more about that? I have not heard such calls from preventable deaths and reduce global the leaders of developed countries so far.” economic output. Considering this, it is less To quote World Health Organization (WHO) costly to join the initiative of fair vaccine director-general Tedros Adhanom distribution and follow the motto of “No one Ghebreyesus, “Vaccine equity is not just the is safe, until everyone is”. Sticking to vaccine right thing to do, it’s also the smart thing to nationalism and rejecting a globalized do”. A study commissioned by the approach to this global problem will make it International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) much longer for the world to get back to Research Foundation discovered that what used to be normal. Vaccine equity is vaccine nationalism could cause the global not only a question of morality but one of economy up to US$ 9.2 trillion, with half of ensuring the fastest road to recovery. that amount falling on advanced economies. According to the study, states are economically better off if they invest in the VI. Participation of foreign fighters Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator (ACT in Armenian military offensives Accelerator), a “groundbreaking global during the Second Karabakh War collaboration to accelerate development, production, and equitable access to COVID- The involvement of military personnel in the 19 tests, treatments, and vaccines”. fighting on the side of Armenia during the Investing US$27.2 billion in the ACT Second Karabakh War went beyond Accelerator (the currently existing funding Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh and gap of the collaboration) is expected to Armenia itself. There is ample evidence that return 166 times the investment. The study foreign fighters (citizens of France, Russia, also demonstrated that those economies and Georgia) as well as mercenaries were with high degrees of international exposure deployed by the Armenian side. Azerbaijan will suffer the most. Therefore, it is the has launched criminal cases against advanced economies with international mercenaries and members of PKK-PYD-YPG linkages that have much to lose; global terrorist organizations, as well as foreign vaccine distribution will advantage them. fighters such as two Lebanese citizens of At the same time, the longer the virus cannot Armenian origin, Khagop Terziyan and be suppressed, the higher are the chances of Khagop Khzhiryan. Armenian diaspora it mutating, as already witnessed with the organizations played a critical role in the UK, South African and Brazilian variants of Second Karabakh War, contributing the virus, which also makes it possible for the manpower and financing to Armenian army. variants to evade the vaccines. With claims Armenian organizations all over the world that mass COVID-19 immunization in poor circulated ads for the recruitment of military Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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forces, and one such organization named Valmenier, a notorious neo-Nazi and the VoMA (short for Armenian “Ողջ Մնալ ու leader of the far-right group Zouaves Paris Արվեստ” – “the art of staying alive”), (ZVP), verified his presence in the occupied operating in Yerevan, launched accelerated territories of Azerbaijan. military training courses with the aim of The Armenian diaspora organizations widely establishing a mountain rifle battalion under disseminated the calls to join military the command of the Ministry of Defense of operations among their members. Among Armenia. As foreign combatants recruited those who joined the military trainings were for the purpose of “undermining the citizens of Australia, Belarus, Belgium, Brazil, territorial integrity of a State” fall under the Canada, Cyprus, Denmark, Egypt, France, definition of “mercenaries”, deployment of Greece, India, Jordan, Lebanon, Mexico, the these fighter is considered a violation by the Russian Federation, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine Armenian side of the international laws of and the U.S. For instance, despite the fact war under the Article 47 of the 1977 that the Article 208(2) of the Criminal Code Additional Protocol I to the 1949 Geneva of Russian Federation prohibits the Conventions and Articles 1 and 5 of the participation of its citizens in an armed force International Convention against the that is not ordained by a federal law, and Recruitment, Use, Financing and Training of states that such actions may carry up to five Mercenaries of 1989. According to several years in prison, the head of the “Armenian media agencies, an indeterminate number Union of Russia” (“Союз армян России”) Ara of French citizens joined the military Abramyan on 28th of September 2020 operations against Azerbaijan, among them announced that 20 thousand Russian a French Armenian by the name of Artur Armenians were eager to fight for the Oganisyan, who, in his interview to Russian Armenian separatist regime in the Karabakh outlet “Новая газета” mentioned that he region of Azerbaijan. As a result, on and his two brothers arrived in Armenia, September 29th, members of Armenian received automatic assault rifles without diaspora in Russia, including a few providing any identification or requiring any representatives of the ARF Dashnaksutyun permissions, and were swiftly added to the party, traveled from Sochi to Yerevan with army. Such cases were also highlighted by the aim of joining military operations as the “France24” news agency, which volunteers. Similar cases took place in published video materials validating the several European states: according to the stories of a number of volunteers heading to “Sputnik Hellas” news agency, at least 30-35 Armenia to join military action, among them Greek Armenians, as well as 10-15 ethnic a veteran referred to as “Vardan” and a 28- Greeks departed for Armenia to join the year-old French citizen Sipan Muradyan. military actions against Turkish armed Information on Marc de Cacqueray- forces. A similar case was covered by the Valmenier, French citizen participating in Spanish “El Confidencial”news agency. military training by the Armenian military Additionally, an information leak revealed forces was disseminated by “Libération” that members of the Kurdistan Workers’ news agency. A photograph published on Party (PKK) from Syria and Iraq, as well as social media by Marc de Cacqueray- 1,500 Kurdish mercenaries joined the Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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Armenian military. many years for Armenia to rebuild its army. Because of the war, Armenia also lost access VII. The outcome of the Second to the natural resources situated in the Karabakh War for Armenia occupied territories of Azerbaijan and exploited by Armenia for about thirty years. In March, the Center of Analysis of Those resources played an important role in International Relations (AIR Center) the provision of food and energy security in published a comprehensive report detailing Armenia. Now, Armenia has to increase its military and economic consequences of the imports of energy and food products in order recent war for Armenia. According to the to substitute lost resources from the report, the Second Karabakh War had previously occupied territories. Moreover, massive military, demographic and the war also significantly affected the fiscal economic fallout for Armenia that will take sector of Armenia and deepened its financial decades to recover from. The biggest impact crisis. During the war, Armenia had to make of the latest war on Armenia, where the changes to its budget because of the population is decreasing every year, will increasing military and social costs. surely be demographic. A country with a Increased budget expenditures, in turn, population of just 2.9 million and a fertility necessitated the attraction of foreign rate of 1.7 is a disappearing country. Along finance, which created additional financial with the low fertility and migration, the security problems for Armenia. As a result of decades-long war with Azerbaijan is the budget changes in 2020, budget income critical element here that also has serious decreased about $590 million (17.5 percent) implications for demographics. Against the and the budget deficit increased by about background of the lost war in Karabakh, the three times. The high level of the budget economic downturn and political chaos in deficit, in turn, created substantial financial Armenia have intensified the question of security problems for Armenia. In order to mass emigration. Although the birth rate in serve the high budget deficit and solve its Armenia in 2020 increased by 0.9 percent financial problems, Armenia had to incur compared with 2019, during the same foreign debt. Despite the fact that the rising period, the death rate in the country level of public debt is one of the main recorded an increase of 35 percent, despite economic problems in Armenia, it did not the fact that not all those killed during the have any other choice than attracting Karabakh War are included in these financial resources from other countries or statistics. In other words, the natural institutions. Doing so resulted in the population growth was 1077 people. Now, it continuation of an increasing level of public is expected that, following the war, the debt in Armenia. According to official data number of Armenians leaving the country from the Armenian government, in 2020, the will increase as soon as global borders total public debt of Armenia increased by reopen. about $1.37 billion (18.5 percent), The financial cost of the war to Armenia is amounting to $8.74 billion at the end of the almost equal to Armenia’s total military year. High public debt, in turn, worsened the expenditure for the last ten years. It will take economic situation in Armenia, threatening Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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the financial security of the country. As a to use its limited foreign exchange reserves, result, the Debt-to-GDP ratio of Armenia has which also creates financial problems for the reached a dangerous level and is expected to country. increase in the coming years. After the Armenia’s defeat in the war resulted in its second amendment to the state budget, the army suffering the loss of most of its military Armenian government predicted that Debt- equipment and combat capabilities. In the to-GDP ratio would reach nearly 67 percent, war, the Armenian army lost military passing the 60 percent threshold. However, hardware and equipment costing hundreds as the recorded decline of GDP was greater of millions of dollars. It is estimated that the than the predictions of the government, by value of Armenian military equipment the end of the year the Debt-to-GDP ratio of destroyed or taken as trophies by the Armed Armenia had reached 69 percent. Owing to Forces of Azerbaijan during the war is about existing economic problems, it is expected $3.8 billion. a. In the last 10 years, the annual that this ratio will reach even higher levels in military expenditure of Armenia 2021 and subsequent years. Because of approximately doubled, from $357 million to these financial problems, Armenia cannot $716 million. Despite the fact that the achieve the approved state budget annual level of military expenditure of projections for 2021. Thus, government Armenia cannot be considered high members are actively discussing decreasing compared with countries that spend a budget expenditures in public institutions considerable amount of money on and in the military sector. militarization, for a small country such as Along with the fiscal sector, economic Armenia with limited economic resources, problems have also put pressure on the this is a huge financial expense. In the past national currency of Armenia. As the decade, the share of the military negative economic effects of the war began expenditure of Armenia in its Gross to be felt after the end of the war, the Domestic Product (GDP) was about 4 depreciation of the dram accelerated, and percent and reached almost 5 percent in this has pushed the Armenian government 2019. That figure is even greater than those to use its currency reserves to stabilize the of countries such as the U.S.A. (3.4 percent) dram. From November 13, 2020 to March and Russia (3.9 percent) that dedicate 15, 2021, the dram fell by about 6.3 percent. substantial financial resources to More broadly, from the beginning of the war militarization. The total military expenditure up to March 2021, the dram depreciated by of Armenia in the most recent ten years was about 8.6 percent. As pandemic-related $4.9 billion. Thus, the value of military restrictions are still effective in Armenia and equipment lost by Armenia in the Second other countries, this moderates the outflow Karabakh War constitutes more than 77 of foreign currency from the country. This, in percent of the total military spend in the turn, prevents the rapid deprecation of the past ten years. If the other losses of Armenia currency. Therefore, the dram is expected to are also taken into account, such as military continue to fall even in the post-pandemic personnel (officially about 4000) and war- period. In order to maintain the stability of related economic damage, we see that in the the currency, the Armenian government has Second Karabakh War Armenia was deprived Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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of the greater part of its military capabilities burden on the country. that had been accumulated over a period of In the last ten years, the average annual ten years. Therefore, given its existing amount of the money spent for military economic and financial problems, Armenia purposes in Armenia was about $490 million. will need several decades to recover its With spending at this average value, to military potential. recover the $3.8 billion in damage that Taking into account all of its economic and Armenia experienced in the war will need at financial problems, the Armenian least eight years. However, Armenia cannot government plans to cut military mobilize all of its financial resources for the expenditure, as envisaged in the 2021 state recovery of its military capabilities. Because budget. Meetings among government of the pandemic and the war, Armenia is members and the defense ministry were faced with serious economic and social held for planning military cuts. Despite the problems. In order to solve these problems fact that there are disagreements in the and head off rising social discontent in the Ministry of Defense over decreasing the country, the Armenian government also military budget, the Armenian government needs to allocate financial resources for does not have any other choice. Utilization economic development. Thus, with the of a substantial part of its limited financial existence of economic and financial resources for military purposes would leave problems, Armenia will need many years to other economic problems unresolved. This, rebuild its army. in turn, could further increase the already The liberation of the occupied territories by growing social tensions because of the war. Azerbaijan has created problems for the Considering the impossibility of restoring the energy security of Armenia. As those army in a short time, the Armenian territories have huge water resources, many government is currently focusing more on hydroelectric power stations were built the economic and social problems. there during the period of occupation. The Armenia is faced with economic damage not electricity produced in those stations met only because of its military losses, but also the energy demands of the Armenians living because of the loss of various natural in the occupied territories and surplus resources in the territories that were under electricity was exported to Armenia in both its occupation for about 30 years. During the spring and summer. In recent years, occupation, Armenia exploited all energy, electricity imported from the occupied mineral, and agricultural resources in the territories made up about 7 percent of the occupied territories. These resources played electricity supply in Armenia. However, as a an important role in the energy, food, and result of the war, 30 hydroelectric power financial security of Armenia. Now, as stations out of the 36 that existed in the Azerbaijan has liberated its territories, occupied territories came under the control Armenia is deprived of those resources, of Azerbaijan. This led to the loss of 60 which creates additional economic problems percent of the electricity production for Armenia. To replace the lost resources, capacity for Armenians in the previously Armenia needs to import them from other occupied territories. In 2020, Armenia countries, which will increase the financial planned to import about 330 million kWh of Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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electricity from the occupied territories. from the occupied territories provided about However, owing to the war, only a fraction 20–25 percent of the country’s total of the planned volume was delivered and demand. Therefore, the Second Karabakh this created an electricity shortage in War has noticeably affected the agriculture Armenia. It is also worth mentioning that sector and food security of Armenia. As with Armenia now not only has to import the energy sector, because of the lost electricity from abroad, but also should agricultural resources, Armenia must export electricity to support the Armenian substantially increase grain imports in order population left in the previously occupied to meet the needs of its population. territories. All the economic damage and financial Because of the war, Armenia also lost the problems that Armenia is facing indicate large agricultural lands of Azerbaijan that it that, for the restoration of the army and exploited over the last thirty years and which establishment of a sustainable economy, played a crucial role in the provision of food Armenia needs many years and a huge security. As a result of the war, Azerbaijan amount of financial resources. In the current has liberated more than 90000 hectares of situation, the only way for Armenia to arable land used for grain production. This achieve economic development and means that Armenia has lost about 90 restoration is to abandon its aggressive percent of arable land in the previously policy against its neighbors and join regional occupied territories. Those territories were initiatives. By supporting regional producing 150000 tons of various grain crops cooperation, Armenia could get support annually, of which 100000 tons were from its neighbors and become part of exported to Armenia. As the total demand regional projects. for grain products in Armenia is about 450000 tons, the grain products imported

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]