CHENNAI 10 EDITORIAL THE HINDU MONDAY, DECEMBER 9, 2013 The not-quite ‘semi-final’

MONDAY, DECEMBER 9, 2013 and what it portends N. Ram ‘wave’ — a decisive and overpowering swing Everything now points to the BJP emerging in the voter mood — can be detected across The rout of he results of the four State Assemb- the country in favour of any one party or ly elections conducted in Novem- as the single largest party, by some distance, leader. The question is not irrelevant because ber-December 2013 in northern historically there have been such electoral the Congress TIndia confirm one thing: the politi- in the sixteenth Lok Sabha. But the waves in India, notably in 1971, 1977, and cal marketplace has downgraded Congress 1984, under very different sets of circum- or the Congress, the humiliation in Delhi was stock to junk status. The clear message from Modi-led alliance will not go into the stances. Modi partisans would of course say more crushing than the defeats elsewhere. tens of millions of voters to the party ruling ‘yes’. But the evidence-based answer seems at the Centre is ‘get prepared to be in the mid-2014 ‘finals’ as the favourite, in any to be that while his prime ministerial candi- More ignominious than the failure to win Opposition for quite a stretch’. The Bharatiya dacy has gained traction and momentum and F Madhya Pradesh after two successive defeats Janata Party’s sweep of the two largest event not the overwhelming favourite. has significantly strengthened the electoral and the fall of the Congress government in Rajasthan States, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, is stock of his party, there is no ‘Modi wave’ that was the party’s miserable third-place finish in Delhi. significant but its cup of joy is not quite full. the BJP and its National Democratic Alliance The Congress trailed way behind the Aam Aadmi Party While a sterling performance by a fresh- latest Assembly contests as a ‘semi-final’ in has clearly overstayed its welcome. partners can ride straight to power at the led by Arvind Kejriwal, which has made a sparkling faced debutant, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which the winner’s form portends an over- As for what the 2013 Assembly election Centre. has denied it outright victory in Delhi, the powering victory in the ‘finals’ that will be outcomes add up to, it is interesting that five Need for allies debut. The close finish in Chhattisgarh was poor com- knife-edge contest in Chhattisgarh has raised played in April-May 2014. The problem with of these States, four in the north and Karna- pensation for the total rout in the other three States. some awkward questions. These questions the analogy is that the guaranteed winner of taka in the south, aggregate a hundred Lok Everything points to the BJP emerging as The party was left grappling with the long-term impli- revolve round how the people of the State, the other semi-final, which will be played in Sabha seats, while the other four, all in the the single largest party, by some distance, in cations of having lost so much ground to the AAP in which witnessed the shocking liquidation by virtual space, is a constellation of regional north-east, make up a combined total of six the sixteenth Lok Sabha. The Congress, some Delhi. The extraordinary rise of the AAP testified to extremists of the Congress’s top State lead- and some other non-BJP, non-Congress seats. So this is not quite political India: in pollsters speculate, could be reduced to half ership in May 2013, feel about governance, players, and the finals will be played by three fact, the State Assembly contests won and its present strength of 206. The regional, the success of the team of activists led by Mr. Kejriwal security, and the Raman Singh government’s contestants under differential rules — with lost in 2013 translate to less than a fifth of the Left, and other non-Congress, non-BJP par- in drawing new volunteers outside of the traditional accountability for a grave security failure. the two semi-final winners each able to play composition of the Lok Sabha. Secondly, if a ties and independents are likely to make up a political class who effectively channelled the sense of AAP’s performance on only part of the pitch and only the guaran- trend favouring the BJP can be detected in sizeable proportion of the next Lok Sabha, public disgust with mainstream parties. The four teed loser in a position to play on the whole the northern States that have gone to the well above the UPA’s total strength. So what States together send 72 members to the Lok Sabha, The humbling of the Congress and the pitch, more or less. polls this year, it is countered by what has is the threshold from which a Modi-led BJP and the Congress would now have to acknowledge that BJP’s surge in this round have been along So how is the contest shaping up for the big happened in the south, signifying the reality could bid aggressively to form a government? expected lines, more or less, but the AAP’s prize? that the party that speaks and functions in Given the overall political picture, it needs to its principal rival, the Bharatiya Janata Party, is the performance has been way beyond general Before we can answer this challenging the name of ‘Hindu nationalism’, or major- be well over 200 Lok Sabha seats for the NDA front runner for the bigger battle in 2014. Yet, given expectations. In fact, as far as political per- question, we need to figure out some kind of itarianism, is not quite a national party in the — which after all is a shadow of the alliance it that these four States were primarily sites of bipolar ceptions and portents go, it would not be basic explanatory insight into what has hap- sense it does not have a serious electoral was when Atal Bihari Vajpayee, a much more contests between the BJP and the Congress, this ver- much of an exaggeration to say that Arvind pened in the nine States where Assembly presence in a large part of India. It is surely acceptable political leader than Mr. Modi, dict cannot be construed as a “semi-final”, as some Kejriwal’s team of dedicated campaigners elections have been held in 2013 and what significant that these no-go regions cumu- spearheaded it to power in 1998 and 1999. analysts are inclined to argue. First, the 2014 general and contestants in Delhi have stolen the the outcomes add up to, quantitatively and latively elect about 250 members to the Lok The essential political truth is that not- limelight from the architects of the BJP’s qualitatively. The short answer to the first Sabha, which means the victor of this ‘semi- withstanding his present avatar as ‘Vikas Pu- election will take place on a larger canvas with more sweep of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. sub-question, based on what we can learn final’ will go to the ‘finals’ knowing it can play rush’, the Man of Development, Mr. Modi leading players such as the regional parties, and the This time the opinion, exit, and post polls can from the information provided by the opin- on just one-half of the pitch. And one does does not attract allies; he repels erstwhile verdict will reflect this complex interplay. This said, claim to have been on the right side of the ion, exit, and post polls and also from jour- not need political punditry to realise that allies and also potential allies. It is well estab- there is no denying that in the race to be the single popular mood and the electoral trends. How- nalistic reportage, is this. The price rise, the electoral victory and defeat is made by sever- lished that he is a highly polarising and divi- largest party in the next Lok Sabha, the BJP is surely ever, the vote share estimates and seat fore- relentless pressures on livelihood and living al factors, local, regional, and national, and sive figure, with a special notoriety rooted in casts (which have varied significantly and, in standards, and corruption have figured high any analysis that reduces the diversity and his and his government’s role in the 2002 ahead. To attract potential allies, especially from the case of Delhi, wildly) have been off in among voter concerns, and on these sensitive complexity of India’s electoral game to one or Gujarat pogrom. among fence-sitting regional players and to forge seat- varying degrees, with virtually all the polls issues the big loser is the Congress and the two factors will be wrong-headed and Interestingly, India’s newspapers and sharing agreements before the next election, it is es- grossly underestimating the AAP. United Progressive Alliance government, deluded. news television channels have, by and large, sential to be seen as the party most likely to head the Hindutva spokespersons have depicted the which has been thoroughly discredited and This leads us to the question whether any maintained the necessary professional dis- next government at the Centre. tance in reporting the Modi campaign. But what they have also done is to keep the focus While the results certainly boost the BJP’s chances on the deeply troubling path he has taken to in 2014, it would be premature to read these as an CARTOONSCAPE the national stage — and on what this por- unqualified endorsement of the party’s Hindutva tends for secular and democratic brand of politics. For instance, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, governance. the star performer of the party and a charismatic That this essential political truth has had an impact even at the top leadership levels of leader in his own right, has led the BJP to victory in the BJP was evidenced by Lal Krishna Ad- Madhya Pradesh for the second time. He sought a vani’s revolt against the installation of Mr. renewed mandate on the basis of his development Modi, first as the BJP’s election campaign schemes and welfare projects and has evidently suc- chief, and then as its prime ministerial candi- ceeded. Likewise, in Chhattisgarh, the BJP under Ra- date. Instant media analysis might have con- cluded that the BJP’s pre-eminent ideologue man Singh banked on food subsidies to win votes. In and strategist was deeply offended because Rajasthan, the BJP rode on the strong anti-incum- he was overlooked for the top job but that bency sentiment, bringing Vasundhara Raje back to reading is both shallow and simple-minded. another term in office. The Congress government un- The more likely explanation is that Mr. Ad- der Ashok Gehlot failed miserably to make an impact; vani, with his long institutional memory, is the development work in the State was uneven, and disturbed by what lies in store for both the party and the Parivar — given Mr. Modi’s some of the populist schemes did not reach all the political notoriety, which, among other intended beneficiaries. In Delhi, the AAP ran a high- things, repels potential BJP allies. voltage campaign against corruption and the estab- All this suggests that the BJP, although lished political class, but the principal beneficiary of assured of its single largest party status, will the anti-Congress wave was the BJP, which too kept not go into the mid-2014 ‘finals’ as the favou- rite, in any event not the overwhelming fa- the focus on corruption and rising prices. If the BJP is vourite. Interesting political moves are on, seeking to sharpen the ideological divide over secular- for example, the Congress’s reported attempt ism by nominating Narendra Modi as its prime minis- to strike a deal with the Bahujan Samaj Party, terial candidate ahead of the Assembly elections, there the alliance manoeuvres in Bihar, not to is little evidence from this round of elections that such mention the Telangana drama that lies a strategy will deliver guaranteed victories on the ahead, that could make a difference on the ground. It is quite conceivable, even likely, ground. Mr. Modi was omnipresent as the BJP’s face, that a post-poll combination of triumphant yet the campaign stars were clearly the local leaders, regional parties will, with external support and the issues dominant in the election discourse were from the Congress and the Left, be able to livelihood and social security concerns. form the next government. There is no denying that Mr. Modi has injected some vigour into the BJP’s election strategy with his aggres- Letters emailed to [email protected] must carry the full sive campaign style. The Gujarat strongman has ex- LETTERS TO THE EDITOR postal address and the full name or the name with initials. panded his sphere of influence well beyond his home State in the months since he was elevated to the na- While it is evident that the Congress The Congress entered this race on transformation, from shackled addressed to Mr. Mandela and tional stage as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. Winds of change is losing ground, the BJP may not be the back foot as a limping economy existence to freedom, take place in apologise for the belated response Even among those who disagree with his polarising That the Congress has suffered a gaining equally even if one cast its long shadow on the their lifetime. to your correspondence. Please politics are those who appreciate his decisiveness, and drubbing in Delhi and Rajasthan considers the Modi factor. The performance of UPA-II. The Jayaprakash Kallurkatte, note that the contents of your letter his pro-growth measures and relatively corruption- will lead to much soul-searching Delhi results indicate that people elections reflect this. In two- Mysore have been noted.” free governance in Gujarat. If anything, Mr. Modi has within the party. It must also are yet undecided, which shows cornered contests, the sole Vinayachandran K.T., also been under pressure to reinvent himself as a mass examine why its electoral pitch of how difficult it still is to predict beneficiary was the BJP, while the I vividly remember reading a social Kochi pro-poor policies didn’t attract voter behaviour in our democracy. AAP has sent out a clear message studies chapter on Nelson Mandela leader showcasing a development-oriented agenda. many takers. The party now has a Varanasi Gopalakrishnan, about capturing the imagination of in my childhood, but when I see the A shame Given the apparent ineffectiveness of an enfeebled few months left if it is to get its act Chennai young India. One cannot rule out outpouring of grief all over the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the Gujarat Chief together. While it is still not clear the emergence of a Third Front. world over his passing, it only It is truly disheartening to know Minister has managed to present himself as a national whether the “Modi factor” is The lacklustre performance of R. Narayanan, confirms my first impression of him that more than half the nation has alternative who can carry his party with him on all working for the BJP, for the UPA-II is crystal clear. What is a Ghaziabad that he was at least a million levels to attend “nature’s call” in the most important issues. There is as yet no exact measure of Congress, Ms Sonia Gandhi and Mr. shocker for the Congress is that its above us in terms of humanity and unhygienic conditions (editorial, Rahul Gandhi will have to effect attempt to use development as a While the BJP has reasons to be forgiveness. It is wrong to speak of Dec. 7). Health camps must be the Modi effect in the Assembly elections. What is drastic midcourse correction to plank didn’t save it this time. The pleased, the real credit goes to Anna the “death” of Mandela because conducted especially in the rural certain is that the new political energy that Mr. Modi their campaign style and substance Modi factor is going to be hard to Hazare and Arvind Kejriwal whose such people never die. They live on areas to increase awareness on this has brought into the BJP’s national election campaign to convince voters. ignore in the days to come. These sustained campaigns exposed the in the hearts of the people. His great unhygienic practice. It is shameful would be a consolidating factor at the national level. D.B.N. Murthy, results are only a sample of what is scam-ridden Congress which deeds immortalised him long ago. that when India is trying to unravel Bangalore to come in 2014. clearly misjudged the mood of the N. Venkata Sai Praveen, the mysteries of planet Mars, In sum, while the four States are not representative K.M. Lakshmana Rao, people. Though the Congress must Chennai people across the country still have of the rest of India, they offer strong indications of the The impressive debut of the Aam Visakhapatnam be credited for its efforts in bringing to go about their morning ablutions trend of public opinion in major States of the Hindi Aadmi Party (AAP)in the Delhi the RTI, RTE and MGNREGA, it He was the guardian of his people, a under the open sky. heartland. In some of the other States, the Congress is Assembly elections is not only its The results show that the “hand” is never bothered to tackle mega-level man of vision, a freedom fighter Nithya G. Nair, pitted against regional or Left parties, and not directly victory but that of the common man not clean. graft. The parties which have won who rejected violence. He set a Thiruvananthapuram as well who is fed up with misrule at The verdict in Delhi has revealed now should exercise caution as the personal example for his people in against the BJP. In some others, the regional parties the Centre. That it has managed to that youngsters cannot be ignored verdicts are largely against the long years he spent in prison. He While the government seems to are the main players with little or no role for either the register its presence is bound to as they have not hesitated to speak corruption. was never arrogant. He worked to think it unimportant to construct Congress or the BJP. After two terms in government, send termors within the Congress. out against corruption, price rise R. Sridharan, mend the tears in South African’s more toilets, the neglect of existing and a series of scams that led to the resignation of Ajay S. Kumar, and nepotism. Chennai society and, with his character, public facilities is also a matter of Ministers, the Congress-led UPA is likely to lose seats Thiruvananthapuram E. Rajakumar managed to prevent outbursts of concern. As a recent opinion article to the BJP and other parties in the next election. Just Arulanandham, Mandela’s legacy racial hatred. He will be in The Hindu pointed out, India The thumbs up for the AAP is a clear Palayamkottai remembered as the father of new must study the success story of as the BJP could not have gained critical mass by indication that India offers political While Nelson Mandela has been South Africa and as an outstanding Indonesia in addressing this issue. relying on Hindutva alone, the Congress cannot hope space for an alternative political . The people are looking for an compared to another apostle of moral leader. Mihir Chhangani, to continue to win votes by merely targeting the BJP’s grouping even if there are giant alternative to both national parties. peace, Mahatma Gandhi, there are Babita Aggrawat, Jodhpur communally divisive agenda. Building election planks national parties. In many States, there are no some palpable differences between New Delhi on scare scenarios too can offer only limited purchase. The possible alternative grouping alternatives to existing parties. As the two. Gandhiji’s satyagraha was In India, there is no concept of the will now have the capacity to in Delhi, we need a movement in the respected to a great extent by the I once received a letter from the sanitary aspect of life. People have Whether it is the Congress or the BJP, the message address the angst of the average other States. Instead of hiding British as they believed in the office of the Nelson Mandela been encouraged to carry out their that the voters appear to be sending to the political citizen who is weighed under the behind the “anti-incumbency” concept of the rule of law. Mandela, Foundation in reply to my ablutions in the open, the logic class is that the party which does not have a credible burden of price rise, governmental screen, the Congress and others who himself believed in peaceful invitation to Mandela to visit my being that nature would take care of agenda for governance and development, is likely to apathy and a sense of general who have lost should now methods, was a part of the African father’s residence in Thrissur when everything. Western systems are far perish. The rise of the Aam Aadmi party also signals despair. Let us hope that the AAP introspect and learn to build National Congress which did not he came to India in 2003. Written more sensible and utilitarian in public alienation from traditional political parties will now inspire political bridges to people, who are the believe in securing change by by John Samuel, Chief Executive of value and one hopes that things will alternatives in every State. backbone of democracy. peaceful means — maybe with some the foundation, it said: “We improve soon. which appear increasingly disconnected from people’s C. John Rose, S.A. Srinivasa Sarma, justification. However, both were acknowledge with gratitude receipt T. Santhanam, aspirations and expectations. Kanyakumari Hyderabad epoch-makers and saw the of your letter dated 04 July 2003 Chennai CM YK CH-CH