TABLE 1. REAL GDP AND GROWTH RATES IN THE ESCWA REGION AT CONSTANT 1995 PRICES, 2001-2004 (Millions of US dollars and percentages) Percentage change
Country/area 2000 2001 2002 2003 a/ 2004 b/ 2001 2002 2003 a/ 2004 b/ Bahrain 7226.6 7561.7 7947.4 8368.6 8787.0 4.64 5.10 5.30 5.00 Kuwait 29119.0 29305.3 29194.0 30945.6 31874.0 0.64 -0.38 6.00 3.00 Oman 16278.2 17500.7 17798.2 18243.1 18899.9 7.51 1.70 2.50 3.60 Qatar 12703.6 13503.9 14092.7 15008.7 15909.2 6.30 4.36 6.50 6.00 Saudi Arabia 161711.4 163829.9 162765.0 173116.8 177098.5 1.31 -0.65 6.36 2.30 United Arab Emirates 58383.2 60403.2 61484.4 64558.6 67141.0 3.46 1.79 5.00 4.00 GCC Countries 285421.9 292104.7 293281.6 310241.5 319709.6 2.34 0.40 5.78 3.05 Egypt 85358.8 88090.2 90821.0 93999.8 97477.8 3.20 3.10 3.50 3.70 Jordan 7839.3 8168.6 8577.0 8851.5 9294.0 4.20 5.00 3.20 5.00 Lebanon 12341.3 12514.1 12764.4 13147.3 13476.0 1.40 2.00 3.00 2.50 Syrian Arab Republic 16055.4 16596.5 17132.2 17303.5 17770.7 3.37 3.23 1.00 2.70 Yemen 5538.3 5798.6 6007.3 6241.6 6460.1 4.70 3.60 3.90 3.50 More diversified economies 127133.0 131167.9 135301.9 139543.7 144478.6 3.17 3.15 3.14 3.54 ESCWA region c 412554.9 423272.6 428583.5 449785.1 464188.1 2.60 1.25 4.95 3.20 Palestinian Territory 4654.4 3956.2 3382.6 3534.8 3863.5 -15.00 -14.50 4.50 9.30 Iraq 3024.6 3330.7 3114.2 2435.3 3540.9 10.12 -6.50 -21.80 45.40 Source: ESCWA, based on national and international sources. a/ ESCWA estimates, April 2004. b/ ESCWA projections, April 2004. c/ Excluding Palestine and Iraq owing to the unavailability of reliable data. Data for Palestinian Territory based on official figures until 2000, and estimates for 2001-2004 based on EIU, Country Report , January 2004 and are therefore not official ESCWA estimates. Data for Iraq based on official figures until 2001, and estimates for 2002-2004 based on EIU, Country Report, March 2004 and are, therefore, not official ESCWA estimates. TABLE 2. PER CAPITA REAL GDP AND GROWTH RATES IN THE ESCWA REGION AT CONSTANT 1995 PRICES, 2001-2004 ( US dollars and percentages) Percentage change
Country/area 2000 2001 2002 2003 a/ 2004 b/ 2001 2002 2003 a/ 2004 b/ Bahrain 11295.9 11602.1 11980.0 12404.7 12819.4 2.71 3.26 3.55 3.34 Kuwait 15210.5 14868.2 14432.6 14937.9 15023.9 -2.25 -2.93 3.50 0.58 Oman 6413.4 6674.2 6569.6 6517.0 6534.1 4.07 -1.57 -0.80 0.26 Qatar 22466.7 23490.1 24137.3 25330.5 26468.9 4.56 2.76 4.94 4.49 Saudi Arabia 7948.0 7791.2 7500.5 7737.8 7680.6 -1.97 -3.73 3.16 -0.74 United Arab Emirates 22403.7 22763.5 22765.1 23494.3 24027.6 1.61 0.01 3.20 2.27 GCC Countries 9976.3 9901.5 9653.6 9924.9 9943.5 -0.75 -2.50 2.81 0.19 Egypt 1257.4 1275.2 1292.3 1315.2 1341.7 1.41 1.34 1.77 2.02 Jordan 1595.6 1617.2 1650.7 1655.7 1690.2 1.36 2.07 0.30 2.08 Lebanon 3529.6 3519.5 3532.0 3581.6 3616.7 -0.29 0.36 1.40 0.98 Syrian Arab Republic 991.8 999.2 1005.4 989.8 991.1 0.75 0.62 -1.55 0.12 Yemen 301.8 303.4 301.7 300.9 299.1 0.51 -0.55 -0.25 -0.61 More diversified economies 1147.1 1156.6 1166.0 1175.5 1190.1 0.83 0.81 0.81 1.24 ESCWA region c 2958.6 2961.8 2927.1 2999.2 3022.9 0.11 -1.17 2.46 0.79 Palestinian Territory 1458.6 1195.0 985.2 993.3 1047.8 -18.08 -17.55 0.82 5.49 Iraq 131.8 141.2 128.4 97.7 138.2 7.14 -9.05 -23.94 41.46 Source: ESCWA, based on national and international sources. a/ ESCWA estimates. b/ ESCWA projections. c/ Excluding Palestine and Iraq owing to the unavailability of reliable data. Data for Palestinian Territory based on official figures until 2000, and estimates for 2001-2004 based on EIU, Country Report, January 2004 and are, therefore, not official ESCWA estimates. Data for Iraq based on official figures until 2001, and estimates for 2002-2004 based on EIU, Country Report, March 2004 and are, therefore, not official ESCWA estimates. Table 3. AVERAGE OPEC BASKET CRUDE OIL PRICES, 1999-2004 (US dollars per barrel)
Price (US$) 1999 17.47 2000 27.60 2001 23.12 2002 24.36 2003 28.10 2004 a 25.00 % Change 2001-2002 5.36 % Change 2002-2003 15.35 Jan-02 18.33 Feb-02 18.89 Mar-02 22.64 Apr-02 24.88 May-02 24.76 Jun-02 23.80 Jul-02 25.13 Aug-02 25.99 Sep-02 27.38 Oct-02 27.32 Nov-02 24.29 Dec-02 28.39 Jan-03 30.34 Feb-03 31.54 Mar-03 29.78 Apr-03 25.34 May-03 25.60 Jun-03 26.75 Jul-03 27.43 Aug-03 28.63 Sep-03 26.32 Oct-03 28.54 Nov-03 28.45 Dec-03 29.44 Source: OPEC, Annual Statistical Bulletin 2002 and Monthly Oil Market Reports. a/ ESCWA forecast. Chart 2. OPEC basket monthly prices, January 2002-December 2003
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Jul-02 Jul-03 Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Jun-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03
Chart 3. OPEC basket annual prices, 1999-2004
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00 US$ 10.00
5.00
0.00 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 a TABLE 4. OIL PRODUCTION IN THE ESCWA REGION, OPEC AND THE WORLD, 1999-2003 (Thousands of barrels per day)
Change (2002- Percentage change a/ 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003) (2002-2003) Country Bahrain b/ 190 190 190 190 190 0 0.0 Kuwait 1873 1996 2021 1885 2173 288 15.3 Oman 910 950 950 900 830 -70 -7.8 Qatar 609 648 683 648 746 98 15.1 Saudi Arabia c/ 7565 8095 7939 7535 8709 1174 15.6 United Arab Emirates 2049 2175 2163 1988 2243 255 12.8 GCC countries 13195 14054 13946 13146 14891 1745 13.3 Egypt 830 800 760 750 750 0 0.0 Iraq 2720 2810 2383 2000 1313 -687 -34.4 Syrian Arab Republic 550 520 520 510 540 30 5.9 Yemen 420 450 470 460 440 -20 -4.3 More diversified 4520 4580 4133 3720 3043 -677 -18.2 economies ESCWA region 17715 18634 18079 16866 17934 1068 6.3 Total OPEC Crude Oil 26500 28000 27200 25300 26900 1600 6.3 Production Total World Oil Supply 74200 76900 77200 76700 79200 2500 3.3
ESCWA share of world 23.9% 24.2% 23.4% 22.0% 22.6% total a ESCWA estimates. b/ Including Bahrain’s share of the Abu Saafa oilfield. c/ Including a 50 per cent share of the Neutral Zone. TABLE 5 . GROSS OIL EXPORT REVENUES IN THE ESCWA REGION, 1998-2003 (Billions of US dollars)
Change (2002- Percentage change(2002- Country 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 a/ 2003) 2003) Bahrain b/ 1.69 2.78 4.48 3.68 3.96 4.68 0.72 18.28 Kuwait 8.46 11.04 18.17 14.95 14.06 18.35 4.30 30.58 Oman 3.72 5.53 8.91 7.63 7.42 7.75 0.33 4.39 Qatar 3.11 4.17 6.80 5.80 6.18 8.20 2.02 32.76 Saudi Arabia c/ 32.47 44.75 70.65 59.61 63.62 82.07 18.45 29.00 United Arab Emirates 9.39 12.30 21.63 17.75 16.95 21.75 4.80 28.34 GCC countries 58.85 80.56 130.65 109.42 112.18 142.81 30.62 27.30 Egypt 1.73 2.56 2.56 2.60 2.48 3.35 0.87 35.08 Iraq 6.79 12.41 17.81 12.23 10.24 7.68 -2.56 -25.00 Syrian Arab Republic 1.38 2.34 3.56 4.06 4.28 3.72 -0.55 -12.95 Yemen 1.23 2.13 3.40 2.91 3.15 3.46 0.31 9.93 More diversified 11.13 19.44 27.32 21.80 20.14 18.21 -1.93 -9.59 economies ESCWA region 69.98 100.00 157.97 131.22 132.32 161.02 28.69 21.69 a ESCWA estimates. b/ Including Bahrain’s share of the Abu Saafa oilfield. c/ Including a 50 per cent share of the Neutral Zone. Table 6. Latest Official Unemployment rates in ESCWA Countries % Country/area 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 a/ Bahrain 2.50 5.23 Kuwait 0.70 0.80 0.8 1.10 Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia 4.30 4.60 4.62 7.80 United Arab Emirates 2.25 GCC Countries Egypt 8.00 8.80 9.10 9.90 10.45 Jordan 15.44 14.50 Lebanon Syrian Arab Republic 11.20 11.68 MoreYemen diversified 11.47 11.00 economies ESCWA region c West Bank and Gaza Strip 11.8 14.1 25.5 31
Sources: Official sources and ILO, Laborstat database. For 2002 in the West Bank and Gaza, figures relate to the second quarter. Table 7. Latest Nationals Unemployment rates in ESCWA Countries % Country/area 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Bahrain 13.96 Kuwait 8.00 Oman 23.02 Qatar Saudi Arabia 8.10 8.34 United Arab Emirates GCC Countries
Sources: Official sources and ILO, Laborstat database. TABLE 8. RATES OF INFLATION IN THE ESCWA REGION, 2000-2003 (Percentage)
Country/area 2000 2001 2002 2003 a/ GCC countries Bahrain -0.68 -1.18 -0.50 -0.20 Kuwait -0.60 1.80 0.49 0.70 Oman -1.11 -0.41 -0.31 -0.62 Qatar 1.68 1.44 0.24 2.26 Saudi Arabia -1.00 -1.01 0.00 0.61 United Arab Emirates 1.37 2.71 2.90 3.00 Egypt 2.70 2.30 2.70 4.20 Iraq 5.00 16.40 19.30 33.62 Jordan 0.70 1.80 1.80 2.30 Lebanon -0.89 1.30 4.25 1.37 Syrian Arab Republic -3.85 3.00 0.97 3.17 Palestinian Territory 5.54 2.79 5.71 4.40 Yemen 8.50 11.90 4.33 13.59 a ESCWA estimates. 2003 estimates are based on official preliminary figures.