Political science

Bajrektarevic A.

Europe of Sarajevo 100 years later: Was history ever on holidays? (From WWI to www. 9/11 or 11/9?)

Abstract. Some 20 years ago the genocide of worst kind was taking place just one hour flight from Brussels. That time, assassination of different kind from the one of 1914 has enveloped Sarajevo. While massive European ignorance turned Bosnia (and the Union of different peoples – Yugoslavia) into a years-long slaughterhouse, the Maastricht dream was unifying the Westphalian world of the Old continent. Today, two decades later, Atlantic Europe is a political powerhouse (with two of three European nuclear powers, and two of five permanent members of the UN Security Council, P–5), Central Europe is an economic powerhouse, Russophone Europe is an energy powerhouse, Scandinavian Europe is a bit of all that, and Eastern Europe is none of it. No wonder that as soon as serious external or inner security challenges emerge, the compounding parts of the true, historic Europe are resurfacing again. Formerly in Iraq (with the exception of France) and now with Libya, Sudan, Mali and Syria; Central Europe is hesitant to act, Atlantic Europe is eager, Scandinavian Europe is absent, Eastern Europe is bandwagoning, and Russophone Europe is opposing. Did Europe change (after its own 11/9), or it only became more itself? Keywords: Europe, genocide, Bosnia, June–1914, unification, Westphalian Ummah, 9/11, geopolitics, civilization, Sarajevo.

urope of June 1914 and of June 2014. Hundred demographic and economic decline, chauvinism reload- years in between, two hot and one cold war. The ed … Twisting between the world of (Gavrilo) PRINCIP League of Nations, Cristal Night, Eurosong and and global village of (instant) MONETISATION (of every- Helsinki Decalogue Coco Chanel, VW, Marshall thing and everyone)… Are our past hundred years an EAid, Tito, Yuri Gagarin, Tolkien’s troll, Berlin wall and Eu- indication of what to expect throughout this century?! ro-toll Ideologies, purges, repeated genocides, the latest one coinciding with the Maastricht birth of the Union… a Sarajevo event of June 28th - televised slaughterhouse and the Olympic city besieged turedWhat isa fragileour roadmap?! equilibrium Is it of anyLa Belle help Èpoqueto reflect, and on theset the Old Continent (and its ,world) 1914 which into the has series finally of fracmo- » ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA tions that lasted for almost a century, before ending with for 1,000E non days, so più just pregare one hour flight from Brussels. the unique unionistic form of today’s Europe? E nell’amore non so più sperare E quell’amore non so più aspettare1 Four men leading one man bound One man whom the four men hound Key words in 1914: Jingoism, booming trade and One man counted bound and led lack of trust, assassination, imminent collision, grand One man whom the four men dread2 war. 100 years later; Europe absorbed by the EU project, The following lines are not a comprehensive ac- count on all of the events. Rather interpretative by its 1 Taken from the lyrics of Miss Sarajevo, the song written by nature, this is a modest reminder of what Europe used Bono Vox of U–2 and Luciano Pavarotti, and performed together and still tends to be, despite all our passions and hopes, with Brian Eno (1994). This instant radio-hit was inspired by the visions and targets, institutions and instruments. true events, when Sarajevens – as a form of urban protest to the world indifferent to their suffering – organized the Miss of Be- sieged Sarajevo beauty contest only few hundred meters from the battlefield lines. Translated from Italian, this line states: “…And I 2 Mak – Mehmedalija Dizdar, Bosnian poet of the modern gen- don’t know how to pray anymore / and in love I don’t know how eration. The quotation is actually an ending part of his poem: to hope anymore / and for that love I don’t know how to wait “A Note about the Five” (trans. Francis R. Jones), from his “Stone any m ore …” Sleeper” poetry collection (1966–71) Svjetlost, Sarajevo.

150 DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 Bajrektarevic A.

* * * * * opaque world, warmer but equally distant and un- Is the EU a post-Westphalian conglomerate and foreseen like ‘Mars’?6 post-Metternich concert of different Europes, the Is this Brussels-headquartered construct, the 20th world’s last cosmopolitan enjoying its postmodern century’s version of Zollverein with standardized tariffs holiday from history?3 Is that possibly the lost Atlán- tida or mythical Arcadia– a Hegelian end of history Thus, is the EU a political and economic re-approachment world? Thus, should this OZ be a mix of the locally do- ofand sovereign trade, but states of an autonomousor maybe just fiscal an(other) policy and enterprise politics? mesticated Marx-Engels grand utopia and Kennedy’s dream-world “where the weak are safe and the strong invisible hand are just”? Or, is it maybe as Charles Kupchan calls it a tacitlyof the borderlesscorrupted financialthe Maastricht capital? Treaty Ergo, wouldas to web-up that be a ‘postmodern imperium’ (exhorting its well-off status borderless,pure construct limitless, of financial wireless oligarchy and carelesswhose power hub, quo by notoriously exporting its transformative pow- while at the same time entrenching, silencing and rarefy- ers of free trade dogma and human rights stigma4–a ing labour within each nation state? Is this a supersized Switzerland (ruled by the ca- cophony of many languages and enveloped in econom- commerce,modified continuation5 Christianity of and colonial civilization legacy overseas), when the ic egotism of its self-centered people), with the cantons Europeana kind of ‘new conquerors, Byzantium’, with or fire is that and more sword, of a spread Rich- (MS, Council of EU) still far more powerful than the ard Young’s declining, unreformed and rigid Rome? central government (the EU Parliament, Brussels’ Com- Hence, is this a post-Hobbesian (yet, not quite a Kan- mission, ECJ), while Swiss themselves –although in the tian) world, in which the letzte Mensch expelled Über- geographic heart of that Union – stubbornly continue mensch - to defy any membership. Does it really matter (and if plies: EU=SU²? Does the EU-ization of Europe equals so, to what extent) that Niall Ferguson wonders: “…the to a restoration? Could it of be the as universalistic one old graffiti world in Prague of Rome’s im EU lacks a common language, a common postal system, Papacy? Is the Union a Leonard’s runner of the 21st a common soccer team (Britain as well, rem. A.B.) even century, or is it perhaps Kagan’s ‘Venus’–gloomy and a standard electric socket…“?7 Kissinger himself was allegedly looking for a phone number of Europe, too. Baron Ridley portrayed the Union as a Fourth Reich, 3 One of the greatest historians of our age, Sir Toynbee, gives not only dominated by Germany, but also institution- an interesting account of our civilizational vertical. He clas-sifies ally Germanized. Another conservative Briton, Larry as many as nineteen major civilizations: Egyptian, Andean, Sin- ic, Minoan, Sumerian, Mayan, Indic, Hittite, Hellenic, Western, Siedentop, remarked in his Democracy in Europe that Orthodox Christian/ Russian, Far Eastern, Orthodox Christian/ it is actually France who is running the EU ‘show’, in main body, Persian, Arabic, Hindu, Mexican, Yucatec, and Baby- the typical French way – less than accountable bureau- lonic). Further on, there are – as he calls them – four abortive cracy that prevents any evolution of the European into civilizations (Far Western Christian, Far Eastern Christian, Scan- an American-style United States. Thus, Siedentop’s EU

dinavian, Syriac) and five arrested civilizations (Polynesian, Es- » ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA kimo, Nomadic, Ottoman, Spartan). Like to no other continent, is more of a Third Bonapartistic Empire than possibly a majority of them are related (originating from or linked) to Eu- Fourth German Reich. The Heartland or Rimland? ropean proper. After all, is the Union yet another virtue out of ne- 4 Lately, it looks like a Gay-rights Jihad at many places. The cessity, as Brzezinski claimed, that after centuries of non-selective, but massive push without premeditation on the colonial overstretch and of mutual destructions (be- key issue here: whether homosexuality should be either toler- tween protagonists in close geographic proximity), Eu- ated behavior or promoted life-style, has to be urgently revis- ited and (re-)calibrated. As it stands now, this Gay-rights Jihad neither serves the human/behavioristic rights nor a worrying birth-rates decline. The European demographics is far more of 6 ”No venue has been created in which an EU-wide public opin- a serious and urgent socio-economic problem, as it is closely ion might be formed… European Parliament elections are not related to the emotional-charge inflammable issues of migration truly European because they are 27 different elections with dif- and integration, and by it triggered (to say: justified) right-wing ferent electoral systems after campaigns in which national issues anti-politics. predominate… Under present procedures, both the President of 5 Is globalization the natural doctrine of global hegemony? Well, the European Commission and the President of the European its main instrument, commerce –as we know – brings people into Council are selected in private meetings of heads of govern- contact, not necessarily to an agreement, even less to mutual ben- ments..”, says former Irish Prime Minister John Bruton. Bruton, efits and harmony...Or, “If goods cannot cross borders, armies J. (2013), How real is the danger of an EU collapse?, EU Journal will” is the famous saying of the XIX century French economist Europe’s World 23(13) 2013, Brussels. Frederic Bastiat, so often quoted by the longest-ever serving US 7 Ferguson, N. (2005) Colossus – The Rise and Fall of the Amer- Secretary of State Cordell Hull. ican Empire, Penguin Books (page 255).

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rope irreversibly lost its demographic, economic and to events before and after the Thirty Years’ War in gen- politico-military importance, and that the early EU was eral and to the post-Napoleonic Europe in particular. more of an attempt to rescue a nation state than it was Political landscape of today’s Europe had been actually the quest for a true enterprise of the European Com- conceived in the late 14th century, gradually evolving to munity building? its present shape. The universalistic world of the Holy Despite different names and categorizations at- Roman Empire and Papacy is steadily contested by the tached, historical analogies and descriptions used, explicitly confronta-tional or implicitly dismissive po- most scholars would agree upon the very geopolitical litical entities, be it ideologically (the Thirty Years’ War culminating with the Peace of Westphalia) or geopo- as a grand re-approachment of France and Germany af- litically (Grand Discoveries and the shift of the gravity terdefinition WWII, ofculminating the EU. It is,in thus,the Elysée predominantly accords of defined 1961. center westwards). The early round of colonizers, the An interpretation of this instrument is rather simple: a bilateral peace treaty through achieved consensus by entities that emerged, followed by France, Holland, which Germany accepted a predominant French say in Englandtwo Iberian and empires Denmark. of Spain (Belgium and Portugal, too, although are the it firstap- political affairs of EU/Europe, and France – in return – accepted a more dominant German say in econom- a continental prolongation of England for containment ic matters of EU/Europe. All that tacitly blessed by a ofpeared Central as a Europeans, buffer zone Dutchat first and– being Scandinavians a strategic depth, from perfect balancer– Britain, attempting to conveniently the open sea, while later on also becoming a strategic return to its splendid isolation from the Continent in depth of France for balancing Britain and containment the post-WWII years. Consequently, nearly all scholars of Denmark and Prussia.) would agree that the Franco-German alliance actually Engulfed with the quest of the brewing French revo- represents a geopolitical axis, a backbone of the Union. lution for the creation of a nation state, these colonizers, But, what does it mean, precisely? Why Germany, and why France? And why, besides the geographic (e.g. successfully adjusted to the nation-state concept. Im- north-south, Nordic-Mediterranean) and political (e.g. portantly,all of them the situated very processon the Atlantic of creation/formation flank of Europe, of have the the EU and non-EU Europe; the ‘good old’ West and nation-state has been conducted primarily on linguistic new ‘transitioning’ East, or old EU 15 and new EU 13, grounds since religious grounds were historically defeat- or the Paris treaty core–6, etc.) categorization, do we ed once and for all by the Westphalia:10 All peoples talking - the Portugo-phone dialects in one state, all Hispanophone tion of historical Europes?8 dialects in another state, all Francophone dialects in the need to take an additionally due look at the classifica third state, etc.11 This was an easy cut for peripheral Eu- Una hysteria importante Europe, notably for Portugal, Spain, France, England, Den- History of Europe is the story of small hysteric/xeno- mark,rope, the the so-calledNetherlands, old colonizersand Sweden. on the Atlantic flank of » ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA phobic nations, traditionally sensitive to the issue of Although geopolitically defeated and ideologically ethnic, linguistic, religious, and behavioristic other- contained by the Vienna Congress and its instrument: ness.9 If this statement holds the truth, then we refer the Holy Alliance of Eastern Conservative Courts, the very idea of a nation-state remained appealing. Once the revolutionary 1848 ousted the principal guardian 8 Classic division on north and south in the European news- peech originating from the London City and Frankfurt’s banking circles would be pigs vs. wings (indebted south: PIGS – Portugal, 10 To be more accurate: Westphalia went beyond pure truce, Italy, Greece and Spain vs. prosperous north: WINGS – West, In- peace and reconciliation. It re-confirmed existence of western dustrial North, Germany and Scandinavia). Christianity’s Ummah. Simply, it only outlawed meddling into 9 Enveloped in its own myopia of economic egoism, Europe- the intra-western religious affairs by restricting that-time ab- ans are in fact digging and perpetuating defensive self-isolation. solute Papal (interpretative) powers. From that point of view, While falling short to constructively engage its neighborhood (but Westphalia was not the first international instrument on religious not conveniently protected by oceans like some other emigrant- freedoms, but a triumph of western evangelic unity, which later receiving countries), Europeans constantly attract unskilled mi- led to the strengthening of western Christianity’s supremacy in- grants. The US, GCC, Far East, Australia, Singapore, lately even tercontinentally. Brazil, India, or Angola – all have enormously profited from the 11 All modern European languages that are taught in schools skilled newcomers. Europe is unable to preserve, protect and pro- today, were once upon a time actually a political and geographic mote its skilled migrants. Simply, European history of tolerance compromise of the leading linguists, who – through adopted con- of otherness is far too short for it, while the legacies of residual ventions – created a standard language by compiling different dia- fears are deep, lasting and wide. lects, spoken on the territory of particular emerging nation-state.

152 DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 Bajrektarevic A.

of feudalism in Europe, Metternich, the suppressed zone: Highly militarized but defensive and obsessively » ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA concept got further impetus. And, the revolutionary - romance went on… Hence, the very creation of central cretive, it represents one confederated state of two European nation-states was actually enhanced by Na- confrontingneutral, economically versions of omnipresent western Christianity, yet financially of three se - ethnicities and of four languages. Absent from most of ly obsessive, inten-tional deed (as he grew up in Nice the modern European politico-military events – Swit- withpoleon Italian III. The Carbonari unification of Italophones was his, near zerland in short – is terra incognita. papal and Habsburg’s control over the northern por- Historically speaking, the process of Christianiza- revolutionists who were fighting of Germanophones under the Greater Prussia was his the invading tribes, that demolished the Roman Em- non-intentionaltions of today’s Italy).mis-chief, Conversely, with the the two very subsequently unification piretion andof Europe brought used to anas endthe justificationthe Antique age,tool wasto pacify run- emerging ‘by-products’; modern Austria (German- ning parallel on two tracks. One of them was conducted speaking core assembled on the ruins of mighty mul- by the Roman Curia/Vatican and its hammer: the Holy tinational and multi-linguistic empire) and modern Roman Empire. The second was run by the cluster of Turkey (Turkophone core on the ruins of mighty multi- Rusophone Slavic Kaganates, who receiving (the or- racial and multi-linguistic empire). thodox or true/authentic, so-called Eastern version Despite being geographically in the heart of Eu- of) Christianity from Byzantium, and past its collapse, rope, Switzerland remained a remarkably stable buffer have taken over a mission of Christianization, while

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Political science

Union – meaning, less than 100 years, in best cases. No wonder that the dominant political culture of the East- Russophonesforming its first have state lived of Kiev in an Russia intact (and world thereafter, of univer its- firstsalism historic for centuries: empire). one So, toempire, the eastern one Tsar, edge one of Europe,religion deeply insecure small nations. Captive and restive, and one language.12 theseern Europeans are short resonatesin territorial residual depth, fears in demographic and reflects Everything in between Central Europe and Rus- projection, in natural resources and in a direct access sia is Eastern Europe, rather a historic novelty on the to open (warm) seas, after all, short in historio-cultural political map of Europe. Very formation of the Atlantic verticals and in a bigger picture-driven long-term poli- Europe’s present shape dates back to 14th–15th century, cies. They are exercising the nationhood and sover- of Central Europe to the mid-late 19th century, while a eignty from quite a recently. Therefore, they are often contemporary Eastern Europe only started emerging dismissive, hectic and suspectful, nearly neuralgic and between the end of WWI and the collapse of the Soviet xenophobic, with frequent overtones. The creation of a nation-state (on linguistic 12 Annotated from one of my earlier writings, it states as follow- grounds) in the Atlantic, Scandinavian and Central Eu- ing: “…Early Russian state has ever since expanded north/ north- rope was relatively a success-story. However, in East- east and eastward, reaching the physical limits of its outreach by ern Europe it repeatedly suffered setbacks, culminating crossing the Bering straits (and the sale of Russian Alaska to the in the Balkans, Caucasus and the Middle East, but also USA in 1867). By the late 17th and early 18th century, Russia had evident in the central or Baltic part of Eastern Europe.13 begun to draw systematically into European politico-military theatre. (…) In the meantime, Europe’s universalistic empire dis- solved. It was contested by the challengers (like the Richelieu’s Keeping the center soft France and others–geopolitical, or the Lutheran/Protestant – ideological), and fragmented into the cluster of confronted mon- Ever since Westphalia, Europe maintained the inner archies, desperately trying to achieve an equilibrium through balance of powers by keeping its core section soft. Pe- dynamic balancing. To this similar political process will affect Russian universal empire only by late 20th century, following the ripheral powers like England, France, Denmark, (Swe- Soviet dissolution. (…) Not fully accepted into the European col- den and Poland being later replaced by) Prussia, the lective system before the Metternich’s Holy Alliance, even had its Ottomans, Habsburgs and Russia have pressed and access into the post-Versailles system denied, Russia was still not kept the center of continental Europe as their play- ignored like other peripheral European power. The Ottomans, ground. At the same time, they kept extending their conversely, were negated from all of the security systems until the very creation of the NATO (Republic of Turkey). Through possessions overseas or, like Russia and the Ottomans, the pre-emptive division of Poland in the eve of WWII, and suc- over the land corridors deeper into Asian and MENA cessful campaigns elsewhere in Eastern Europe, Russia expanded proper.14 Once Royal Italy and Imperial Germany had both its territory and its influence westwards. (…) An early So- appeared, the geographic core ‘hardened’ and for the viet period of Russia was characterized by isolated bilateral agree- - ments, e.g. with Germans, Fins, Japanese, etc. The post WWII days have brought the regional collective system of Warsaw Pact ripheries. This new geopolitical reality caused a big se- » ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA into existence, as to maintain the communist gains in Europe and curityfirst time dilemma started lasting to politico-militarily from the 1814 Vienna press congress onto pe to effectively oppose geopolitically and ideologically the similar up to Potsdam conference of 1945, being re-actualized US-led block. Besides Nixon’s reapproachment towards China, again with the Berlin Wall destruction: How many Ger- the collapse of the Soviet Union was the final stage in the pro- manies and Italies should Europe have to preserve its gressive fragmentation of the vast Sino-Soviet Communist block 15 (that dominated the Euroasian land mass with its massive size inner balance and peace? As the late-comers the Cen- and centrality), letting Russia emerge as the successor. The sud- den Soviet break-up, however, was followed by the cultural shock and civil disorder, painful economic crisis and rapidly widening 13 Many would say that, past the peak Ottoman times, the aggres- disparities, as well as the humiliating wars in Caucasus and else- sive intrusion of Atlantic Europe with its nation-state concept, cou- where, since the centripetal and centrifugal forces of integration pled with Central Europe’s obsessive control and surveillance drive, or fragmentations came into the oscillatory play. Between 1989 has turned a magnificently mild and tolerant lands and intellectual and 1991, communist rule ended in country after country and the exchange-corridors of southeastern Europe and the Near East into Warsaw Pact officially dissolved. Subsequently, the Gorbachev- a modern day Balkan powder keg. Miroslav Krleza famously re- Jeltsin Russia experienced the greatest geopolitical contraction of marked: “It was humans who transformed our swine to a pig.” any major power in the modern era and one of the fastest ever in 14 history. Still, Gorbachev-Jeltsin tandem managed to (re-)brand Serves as a curios fact that the first border agreement ever themselves domestically and internationally – each got its own signed by Mexico with any of its neighbors was with Tsarist Rus- label of vodka…” (Verticalization of Historical Experiences: Eu- sia (delimitation of proper stretching over today’s western coast rope’s and Asia’s Security Structures – Structural Similarities and of Canada and the US state of Washington). Differences, Crossroads – the Macedonian Foreign Policy Jour- 15 At the time of Vienna Congress, there were nearly a dozen of nal, 4 (1), page 111–112, M-MFA 2008) Italophone states and over three dozens of Germanophone enti-

154 DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 Bajrektarevic A. tral Europeans have faced the overseas world, clearly any change of its borders with Czechoslovakia and Po- land. The same modus operandi applied to the Austrian borders with Italy, Yugoslavia, Hungary and Czechoslo- perspectivedivided into of spheres European of influence. belligerent parties, both world vakia. The Locarno accord actually instrumentalized warsIn were very fought simplified between terms, the we forces can ofsay status that fromquo andthe two sorts of boundaries around Central Europe (Ger- many–Austria): strict, inviolable ones towards Atlantic both wars was that Atlantic Europe has managed to di- Europe; but semipermeable and soft towards Eastern vertthe challengers the attention to ofthis Central status Europeansquo. The final from epilogue itself and in Europe.18 That is how the predominant player from its vast overseas possessions onto Eastern Europe, and Central Europe, Germany, was accepted to the League, 16 Just to give the most illustrative a collective system which the Soviet Russia (meaning: of many examples; the Imperial post-Bismarck Germany Rusophone Europe) was admitted to only a decade lat- hasfinally carefully towards planned Russia. and ambitiously grouped its troops er (1934).19 Soon after, this double standard sealed-off on the border with France. After the assassination of the a faith of many in Europe and beyond. Austrian Archduke in Sarajevo (28 June 1914), Europe In fact, the 1930s were full of public admirations was technically having a casus belli – as the subsequent mutually declared war between all parties quickly fol- It was not only reserved for the British royal family (e.g. lowed this assassination episode and the Austrian ulti- Edwardof and frequent VIII), but official for many visits more to an prominents Austrian-born from Hitler. both sides of the Atlantic. By 1938 in Munich, this ‘spirit of was not taking place on the southeastern front, as ex- pectedmatum – to between Serbia. However,the Eastern the belligerent first armed parties engagement such as President Daladier and British PM Chamberlain (At- Austria, Serbia, Russia, the Ottomans, Greece, Bulgaria, lanticLocarno’ Europe) has been jointly confirmed paid a visit in practice to Germany when and French gave concessions – practically a free hand – to Hitler and taking place in the opposite, northwest corner of Europe Mussolini (Central Europe) on gains in Eastern Europe. andetc. Theonly first months military later. operations It was in German of WWI penetration were actually of Neither Atlantic Europe objected to the pre-Munich Belgian Ardennes. Still, the very epilogue of la Grande Guerra and absorption of Austria, following a massive domes- of Germany was achieved only in Eastern Europe. De- ticsolidification Austrian support of Central to Nazism Europe: of Hitler–Mussoliniits 890,000 members pact spite a colossalwas such 4-years that a singlelong military significant effort, territorial the German gain of the Nazi party as well as a huge ring of sympathizers. western border remained nearly unchanged.17 By brokering the Ribbentrop-Molotov non-aggression The end of WWI did not bring much change. The deal between Berlin and Moscow, but only a year af- accords de paix – Versailles treaty was an Anglo-French ter the Munich-shame – in 1939 (including the stipula- triumph. These principal Treaty powers, meaning: tions on Finland, Baltic states and Poland), Stalin des- perately tried to preempt the imminent: A horror of an League of Nations in 1926, based on the 1925 Treaty uncontrolled expansion of Central onto Eastern Europe ofAtlantic Locarno. Europe, By the invitedletter of Germany this treaty, to Germany finally join obliged the and closer to Russia, something that was already large- » ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA itself to fully respect its frontiers with Belgium and ly blessed and encouraged by Atlantic Europe.20 France (plus demilitarized zone along the Rhine) with

18 Farce or not, history nearly repeated itself to the last detail in early 1990s. The western frontiers of Central Europe remained tiesthe – unspecified 34 western German promise states to + arbitrate 4 free cities before (Kleinstaaterei), pursuing intact, while the dramatic change took place to its East. Besides Austria and Prussia. Potsdam conference concludes with only Anschluss of Eastern Germany by the Western one, borders there three Germanophone (+ Lichtenstein + Switzerland) and two Ita- remained the same, but many former neighbors have one by one lophone states (+ Vatican). disappeared for good from the political map. 16 Why did the US join up Atlantic Europe against Central Eu- 19 The Cold War era has prevented any comprehensive scientific rope in both WWs? Simply, siding up with Central Europe would consensus. The unbiased, de-ideologized and objective view on have meant politico-military elimination of Atlantic Europe once the WWII was systematically discouraged. Soviets consistently and for all. In such an event the US would have faced a single Eu- equated Nazism and imperialism while the US, for its part, equat- ropean confrontation-potent block to engage with sooner or later, ed fascism and communism. Until this very day, we do not have a and would have lost an interfering possibility of remaining the full accord on causes and consequences of events in years before, perfect balancer. The very same balancer role, the US inherited during and after the WWII. from the declining Britain. 20 We should keep in mind that for the very objective of leben- 17 V.I. Lenin leaves Switzerland in April 1917, and is heading to sraum policy (character and size of space needed for Germano- Russia by train (in the sealed off wagon) crossing all over Ger- phones to unhindered, live and prosper), the Jews, Roma and many – a self-telling episode of the WWI. behavioristic minorities were the non-territorial obstacle. How-

DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 155 Political science

For some 300 years, Russia and the Ottomans Small wonder, that in 1945, when Russians – suf- have fought series of bitter wars over the control of fering over 20 millions of mostly civilian casualties and the Black Sea plateau and Caucasus – sectors, which by far the heaviest continental burden of the war against both sides (especially the Ottomans) have considered Nazism – arrived on wings of their tanks and ideology as geopolitically pivotal for their existence. Still, nei- to Central Europe, they decided to stay. Extending their strategic depth westwards–southwestwards, and forti- » ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA seriously jeopardize the very existence of the other. fying their presence in the heart of Europe,22 was morally However,ther party Russiahas ever has progressed experienced at the such battlefield moves assev to- eral times from within Europe. Three of them were critical for the very survival of Russia and the forth the time of the young Bolshevik Russia that saturated the country was rather instructive: the Napoleonic wars, Hitler’s (bringing the unbearable levels of starvation and hunger up to Drang nach Osten, the so-called “contra-revolution- cases of cannibalism), took away 5 million mostly civilian lives, ary” intervention,21 and set the stage for ‘red terror’. humiliating war with Poland (1919–21). 22 With the politico-military settlement of the Teheran and Yal- and finally the brief but deeply ta Conference (1943), and finally by the accord of the Potsdam Conference (1945), the US, UK and the SU unanimously agreed to reduce the size of Germany by 25% (comparable to its size of ever, Slavs and their respective Slavic states in Eastern Europe 1937), to recreate Austria, and to divide both of them on four were the prime territorial target of Hitler-led Central Europe’s occupation zones. The European sections of the Soviet borders ‘final solution’. Therefore, no wonder why so much fifth column were extended westwards (as far as to Kaliningrad), and Poland among Slavs. For the speeding and smoothening of the leben- was compensated by territorial gains in former Eastern Prussia/ sraum objective, Quisling was needed as PM in Norway, but Germany. The pre-WWII inclusion of the three Baltic republics Slavic quisling-elites in each and every of that time major Slavic into the Soviet Union was unanimously confirmed by the Ameri- state – useful idiots in Poland, in Ukraine, in Czechoslovakia, in cans and Britons in Potsdam, too. Practically, Russians managed Yugoslavia, in Bulgaria, etc.). to eliminate Germany from Eastern Europe (and of its access to 21 The 6-year-long insurgencies (largely financed and inspired central and eastern portions of Baltic, too), and to place it closer by Western Europe as an overt ‘regime change’ intervention) at to the Atlantic Europe’s proper.

156 DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 Bajrektarevic A.

an occupation. Still, it was geopolitically the single option reconciliation of two Europes, the Atlantic and Central left, which Stalin as a ruthless person but an excellent one. The status quo Europe has won on the continent geo-strategist perfectly understood. Just a quick look but has soon lost its overseas colonies. Once realizing at the geographic map of Europe would show that the low-laying areas of western Russia, Belorussia, Ukraine protagonists in a close proximity was wide open.23 This isit, the the full road meaning for ‘unification’ of the 1961Elysée. of the equally weakened » ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA indefen-sible. Their topography exposes the metropoli- tanand area Eastern and city Europe of Moscow are practically to an extreme non-fortifiable vulnerability. and Europe of Genocide and of Unification – So, the geostrategic dictatum is that in absence of any Happy EU to You! deep canyon, serious ridge or mountain chain, the only protection is either a huge standing army (expensive The collapse of the Soviet Union marked a loss of the and badly needed in other corners of this vast country) historical empire for Russia, but also a loss of geopo- and/or an extension of the strategic depth. litical importance of nonaligned, world-wide respected In a nutshell, we can say that the very epilogue of both WWs in Europe was a defeat of Central Europe (challenger of status quo) against Atlantic Europe (sta- 23 Nowadays, from the safe time-distance, it is easy to claim that tus quo defender), with the relatively absent, neutral the portion of Europe under Americans was of considerably bet- Scandinavian Europe, of Eastern Europe being more an ter fortune than a part under the Soviet influence. Interestingly object than a subject of these mega-confrontations, and enough, the opposite situation was elsewhere: India – Pakistan, Vietnam – the Philippines, Cuba – Colombia, Egypt – Saudi Ara- bia, Ghana – Liberia. That means that the intra-European differ- Finally, back to Franco-German re-approachment: ences are beyond pure American–Russian influences, and there- Thisfinally is withfar more a variable than justsuccess a story of Russia. about the two coun- fore far more significant. Proof? The standard-of-living difference tries signing d’accord between London and Bucurest or Paris and Sofia today is of the same –or even wider – distance than it was some 40 years ago. . It truly marked a final decisive DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 157

Political science

Yugoslavia,24 which shortly after burned itself in series goslavia? It responded to the Soviet collapse in the of brutal genocidal, civil war-like ethnical cleansings. best fashion of a classic, historical nation-state, with The idea of different nations living together and com- the cold calculi of geopolitical consideration deprived municating in different languages in a (con-)federal of any ideological constrains. It easily abandoned al- structure was (though imperfect) a reality in Yugosla- truism of its own idea by withdrawing its support to via, but also a declared dream of the Maastricht Europe. the reformist government of Yugoslavia and basically Moreover, this country was the only truly emancipated sealed-off its faith. Intentionally or not, indecisive and and indepen-dent political entity of Eastern Europe contradictory political messages of the Maastricht-time and one of the very few in a whole of the Old Conti- EU – from the explicate encouragement of separatism, nent. Despite the post-Cold War, often pre-paid, rheto- - rics that Eastern Europe rebelled against the Soviet al integrity and sovereignty of Yugoslavia – were bring- domination in order to associate itself with the West, ingand thisthen multinational back to the full Slavic reconfirmation state into of schizophrenic the territori the reality was very different. Nagy’s Hungary of 1956, situation. Consequently, these Europe’s mixed political messages –most observes would agree– directly accel- Poland of 1981 dreamt and fought to join a liberal Yu- erated inner confrontations of the Yugoslav peoples. goslavia,Dubček’s andCzechoslovakia its internationally of 1968 declared and (pre-)Jeruzelski 3rd way! Soon after, Atlantic-Central Europe axis contained the By 1989–90, this country still represented a hope western Balkans, letting the slaughter-house to last of full emancipation and real freedom for many in the essentially unchecked for years.25 At the same time, East. How did the newly created EU (Atlantic-Central it busily mobilized all resources needed to extend its Europe axis) react? At least tolerating (if not eager to own strategic depth eastwards (later formalized by the support), or actively eliminating the third way of Yu- so-called enlargements of 1995, of 2004, of 2007 and -

24 cide and the EU enlargement go hand in hand at the Yugoslavia was by many facets a unique European country: finally of 2013). This is the only answer how can geno No history of aggression towards its neighbors, with the high same time on such a small continent. toleration of otherness. Yugoslav peoples were one of the rare As said, the latest loss of Russophone Europe in Europeans who resolutely stood up against fascism, fighting it in its geopolitical and ideological confrontation with the a full-scale combat and finally paying it with 12% of its popula- West meant colossal changes in Eastern Europe. We tion in the 4-years war. (Relative to the 1939 size of state territory may take a look into geopolitical surrounding of at the- and incumbent population within, the top WWII fatalities were suffered by Poland – 18%, the Soviet Union – 15%, Yugoslavia time largest eastern European state, Poland, as an illus- 12%, III Reich/Germany – 10%. For the sake of comparison, the tration of how dramatic was it.26 All three land neigh- Atlantic rim suffered as follows: France – 1,3%, UK –0,9%, the

US – 0,3%.) Yugoslavs also firmly opposed Stalinism right after 25 the WWII. Bismarck of southern Slavs – Tito doctrinated the so- The brief but bloody 1989 televised episode of a witch-hunt, called active peaceful coexistence after the 1955 Bandung south- followed by the hasty extrajudicial and savage killing of Roma- south conference, and assembled the non-Aligned movement nian president and his wife Ceausescu, shocked the world – but » ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA (NAM) in its founding, Belgrade conference of 1961. Steadily for not for long. The first ever fully televised war with its highly dis- decades, the NAM and Yugoslavia have been directly tranquil- turbing pictures of genocidal Armageddon came by early 1990s. izing the mega confrontation of two superpowers and satellites It remained on TV sets for years all over Europe, especially to its grouped around them (and balancing their irresponsible calami- East. Although the Atlantic-Central Europe axis kept repeating ties all over the globe). In Europe, the continent of the sharpest we do not know who is shooting whom in this powder keg and ideological divide, with practically two halves militarily confront- it is too early to judge, this –seemingly indecisive, wait-and-see, ing each other all over the core sectors of the continent, and with attitude– was in fact an undeniably clear message to everyone in its southern flank of Portugal, Spain and Greece (and Turkey Eastern Europe: No III way will be permitted. East was simply sporadically) run by the military Juntas, Yugoslavia was remark- expected to bandwagon – to passively comply, not to actively en- ably mild island of stability, moderation and wisdom. Domesti- gage itself. cally, Yugoslavia had a unique constitutional setup of a strictly 26 Ethnically, linguistically and religiously one of the most ho- decentralized federation. Although being a formal democracy in mogenous countries of Europe, Poland in its post-communist its political life, many aspects of its social and economic practices concepts reinvigorates the faith (as being, past the days of Ta- as well as largely enjoyed personal freedoms and liberties featured deusz Mazowiecki, massively de-Slavicized). No wonder as the the real democracy. The concept of self-management (along with Polish-born Karol Józef Wojtyła served the Roman Curia as Pon- the Self-managing Interest Community model) in economic, so- tifex Maximus from 1978, to be replaced by the German-born cial, linguistic and cultural affairs gained a lot of external atten- Joseph Ratzinger in 2005. Prizing Roman-Catholicism over eth- tion and admiration in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. Still, there was nicity, even harshly denouncing any Slavic sentiment as a dan- neither enough sympathies nor mercy in the towards-EU-head- gerous roter russischer Panslawismus, ‘fortress’ Poland effectively ing Europe, to save either the Yugoslav people from an immense isolates itself on a long-run as none of its neighbors is Catholic. suffering or the symbol that this country represented domesti- To the contrary, the four fifths of its land-borders are shared with cally and internationally. other Slavic states. To externally mobilize, the elites (in any East-

158 DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 Bajrektarevic A. bors of Poland; Eastern Germany (as the only country tive rulers, while in reality the true power holder re- to join the EU without any accession procedure, but by sides outside, although is domestically suppor-ted by pure act of Anschluss), Czechoslovakia and the Soviet a dense web of NGOs, multinational corporations and Union have disappeared overnight. At present, Polish locally handpicked ‘elites’? border countries are a two-decade-old novelty on the Accidentally or not, for the last 25 years, our re- European political map. Further on, if we wish to com- porting on Eastern Europe was rather a matter of pare the number of dissolutions of states worldwide faith than a reflection of the empirical reality. This over the last 50 years, the Old continent suffered as ‘rhetoric’ was dominated by fragmented intellec- many as all other continents combined: American con- tual trends that are more cultural (e.g. poetry, paint- tinent – none, Asia – one (Indonesia/ East Timor), Af- than coherently economic and geo- rica – two (Sudan/South Sudan and Ethiopia/Eritrea), political in focus as they should be. How one defines and Europe – three. aings, challenge film, etc.) largely determines the response – effectively Interestingly, each and every dissolution in Europe points out Brzezinski. Hence, the arts will always elabo- was primarily related to Slavs (Slavic peo-ples) living rate on emotions and the science will look for the facts. in multiethnic and multi-linguistic (not in the Atlantic If the front of Atlantic-Central Europe lately suffered Europe’s conscripted pure single-nation) state. Further (an economic) problem which has been diagnosed as a on, all three – meaning, every second dissolution in the distributional and compositional, than who and when world – were situated exclusively and only in Eastern Europe. That region has witnessed a total dissolution of Rusophone Europe and its burning geo-economic (dis- Czechoslovakia (western Slavs) and Yugoslavia (south- tributional,is holistically compositional), and scientifically socio-political/ideological to examine the Eastern- ern Slavs, in 3 waves), while one state disappeared (space-time in history) and geopolitical (logical and from Eastern Europe (DDR) as to strengthen and en- areal) problem? There is a lot of (pre-paid and post- large the front of Central Europe (Western Germany). paid) attention-diverting and velvet-silencing, but Finally, countless centripetal turbulences severely af- besides this cacophonic noise where is a serious re- fected Eastern Europe following the dissolution of the search on that? If the equality of outcome (income) was SU (eastern Slavs) on its frontiers. a communist egalitarian dogma, is the belief in equality Irredentism in the UK, Spain, Belgium, France and of opportunity a tangible reality offered to Eastern Eu- Italy, or Denmark (over Faroe Islands and Greenland) rope or just a deceiving utopia sold to the conquered, is far elder, stronger and deeper. However, the disso- plundered, ridiculed and cannibalized countries in lutions in Eastern Europe took place irreversibly and transition? overnight, while Atlantic Europe still remained intact, By contrasting and comparing available HDI data with Central Europe even enlarging territorially and (UN DP’s Human Development Index) and all relevant expanding economically. WB, OECD, UNCTAD, ILO and WHO socio-economic As early as in XVI century, the Easter European and health indexes including the demographic trends thought – in the person of famous Sarajevan, Bosnian of last two decades, we can easily spot a considerable » ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA economic and socio-human growth in Asia, in Latin far reaching wisdom that progress is both the focus of America and elsewhere. The only trend of negative aMachiavelli, vision and Kafijaattainable Pruščak reality – is spellingfor all.27 a If universal this futuris and- growth (including the suicide and functional illiteracy tic assertion is still accurate, than the progress itself is unthinkable without social cohesion. That would, this of Eastern Europe, is situated in (the central-west, consequently, necessitate shared interest which only centralfigures) to comparable Horn/central-east by its durationportions of) and sub-Saharan severity to comes with thorough debates affecting all segments of Africa. Euphemisms such as countries in transition or society (or at least its major interest groups). Is today’s new Europe cannot hide a disconsolate fact that East- Eastern Europe a clas-sic case of indirect rule? Is it a ern Europe has been treated as defeated belligerent, deep imperial periphery of nominally independent na- as spoils of war which the West won in its war against communist Russia.28 ern European state) would need an appealing intellectual case – 28 A sharp drop in LE (life expectancy) in Russia, from age 72 to not a mare ethno-religious chauvinism. 59, is something faced only by nations at war. The evidence that 27 Taken from Kafija Pruščak, H. (1596), Universal theory of the Russia has suffered such a steep decline, unreversed ever since the global governing wisdoms (Usul Al-hikam fi nizami-el-alem, org. collapse of the Soviet Union, is unprecedented in a peace-time Temelji mudrosti o uređenju svijeta). At the time, he was nick- history of any industrialized nation. Although not so alarming named in Western Europe as the Oriental Machiavelli. like in the post-Soviet Russia, the rest of post-Soviet republics and

DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 159 Political science

It concludes that (self-)fragmented, de-industrial- East does not exercise its political sovereignty ized, rapidly aged and depopulated, (and de-Slavicized) (gone with the EU), its military sovereignty (gone with » ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA the NATO), its economic and monetary sovereignty of the world – one of the very few underachievers. Obe- (gone with the massive domestic de-industrialization dientlyEastern submissive Europe is probably and therefore, the least rigid influential in dynamic region en- ‘preached’ by the IMF, EBRD, EIB and eventually ECB),30 vironment of the promising 21st century, Eastern Euro- peans are among last remaining passive downloaders and slow-receivers on the otherwise blossoming stage ing, balanced and multivector foreign policy. Fergusson goes as of the world’s creativity, politics and economy.29 far as to claim for Eastern Europeans that: “they looked at Brus- sels (of NATO) the way former British colonies obeyed every- thing said and done in London.” 30 “The entry criteria for Eastern European states was particu- Eastern Europe closely follow the same LA pattern – not to men- larly costly: the so-called small and open economies, de-indust- tion devastating birth rates, brain drain and other demographic rialized and over-indebted didn’t have any chance to be equal data. E.g. the projected LA of the today’s born Berliner is around partners. For most of them, FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) is 100 years, while of Muscovite is only 67 years. Simply, the East is the only economic solution, which turned them into colonies…” – unable to (re-)produce its own life (or, once conceived, to keep admitted even the Nobel laureate, economist Stiglitz in his The the best of it at home). Price of Inequality. Moreover, the overly strong and rigid ex- 29 With some exceptions of Visegrád countries (such as Poland change rate of the domestic currencies in Eastern Europe is only or Czech Republic, and lately Hungary) sporadically opposing a good for foreign landers. It awards importers while disadvantages constant bandwagoning (but even that only in the domain of nar- domestic manufacturing base and home exporters. This outdated row EU fiscal or economic matters), Eastern Europe of today is anti-growth economic policy has been universally abandoned unable to conceive and effectively promulgate a self-emancipat- long ago, even by the LDC (the UN-listed Least developed coun-

160 DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 Bajrektarevic A.

- Honduras-ization of Eastern Europe is full and tion of German, Austrian and Swedish banks).31 Most complete.34 If the post-WWII Soviet occupation of East- ofand the its Eastern financial European sovereignty states (gonedo not by control full penetraa single ern Europe was overt and brutal, this one is tacit but commercial bank on their territory.32 Additionally, this subversive and deeply corrosive.35 region does not effectively control its media space Interestingly, the physical conquest, usually re- – media there (of too-often dubious orientation and ferred to as the EU enlargement, was primarily the US- ownership) is discouraging, disorienting and silencing led NATO one, and only then the EU enterprise. Simply, - no eastern European country entered the EU before rection and to it related calls for self-(re) assessment. Eastany sense is sharply of national aged and pride, depopulated influence –theover worstdestiny of diits kind ever – which in return will make any future pros- joining the NATO at first. It should not be forgotten pect of a full and decisive generational interval simply tervals. This was an engine of our evolution…Presently, with de- impossible.33 mographically collapsing East European societies (natality rates, generational and brain drain), the young cohort will never con- stitute more than a tiny minority – in the sea of aged, backward- looking, psychologically defeatistic and biologically incapable, tries). No wonder that the GDP in the most of Eastern European conservative status quo keepers. Hence, neither the generational states is below its pre–1990s levels. change that brings fresh socio-political ideas, nor technological 31 According to findings of the Budapest Institute of Econom- breakthrough –which usually comes along – will successfully ics (Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary), for the past ever take place in future of such demographics.” (For a detailed two decades, the volume of Austrian banking sector has in- demographic outlook and tentative recommendations/ conclu- creased 370%–all that in the country of a flat domestic econom- sions, see: Bajrektarevic, A. (2005), Our Common Futures: EU- ic and negative demographic growth. This covert occupation RO-MED Human Capital beyond 2020, Crans Montana Forum, of south-eastern Europe by the foreign financial sector did not Monaco, 2005, as well as Bajrektarevic, A. (2005), Green/Policy create new jobs or re-create any industrial base there. As we can Paper Submitted to the closing plenary of the Ministerial (Chair- conclude aftermath, it was only meant to dry-out the remain- manship summarizing the recommendations and conclusions of ing liquid assets (and private savings) from the rapidly pauper- the OSCE Ministerial Summit Prague 2005), OSCE Documents ized, defeated belligerent. In 1914, Austria controlled banks as EEA 2005.) well; in Croatia, Bosnia, Romania, Serbia, Hungary, southern 34 Eastern Europe is Hondurized – this term refers to an opera- Poland and western Ukraine. However, at that time, it also had tionalization of Monroe Doctrine in Central America, by which a strict governing obligation as all of them were a part of the Washington allows its strategic neighborhood to choose their Monarchy. By having recognized the formal sovereignty to each own domestic political and economic systems to an acceptable of these entities, Austria today (like Sweden towards the three degree, while the US maintains its final (hemispheric) say over Baltic States in the northeast flank of Europe, and Germany in their external orientation. The so-called Brezhnev doctrine (of the central sector of Eastern Europe) has no governing obliga- irreversibility of communist gains) postulated the Soviet (Suslov- tions whatsoever. It can easily externally socialize (externalize) Stalin) equivalent to Honduras-ization – Finlandization. all its costs including banking risks, and individualize all profits (internalize), yielding it only for itself. Hence, the EU accession 35 Eastern Europe, the (under-)world of dramatic aging which is additionally demographically knocked down by the massive

criteria, combined with a nominal independence of Eastern Eu- » ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA ropean entities (pacified by the pre-paid media and guided by generational and brain drain. Passed the dismantling of the com- the post-paid ‘elites’), means that the economic and other assets munist order, these emerging economies, countries in transition are syphoned out, but the countries have to take a burden of the of the new Europe contain reactionary forces (often glorifying state maintenance solely on themselves. the wrong side of history), predatory ‘elites’ and masses of dis- 32 illusioned (in a life without respect and dignity, humiliated and Current labor relations in the most of Eastern Europe (Ru- ridiculed in the triviality of their lasting decline). Even if the sophone Europe, too) resembles pictures of the 18th rather than new jobs are created or old kept, they are in fact smoke screens: of the 21st century’s conditions, especially in the private sector Mostly a (foreign-loans financed) state-sponsored poverty pro- of employment. It is all with a weak or even totally absent trade grams where armies of the underemployed and misemployed unionism, dismal labor rights and poor protection of other es- cry out miserable wages in dead-end jobs. Former Slovakian sential social rights. “We have stringent labor conditions to the cabinet minister laments in private: “Our ‘liberated East’ lives unbearable maximum, so that the few self-styled ‘top managers’ on foreign loans, or in the best case as the industrial suburbia of can play golf more frequently and for a longer time…how can you West Europe, having these few ‘generously’ franchised factories possibly build any social cohesion when disproportionately many like Renault, VW or Hugo Boss. Actually, these are just automo- suffer for the dubious benefit of the asocial, predatory few…” – tive assembly lines and tailor shops – something formally done confessed to me the Ambassador of one of the largest Eastern Eu- only in the III World countries. Apart from the Russian Energia- ropean countries who served as a mayor of his country’s capital, Soyuz (space-program related) delivery system, what else do we before his ambassadorship in Vienna. have domestically created anywhere from Bratislava to Pacific? Is 33 Some ten years ago, for the special OSCE forum for demo- there any indigenous high-end technical product of past decades graphics, I warned: “…lasting political, social and economic known? ... Our EU accession deals are worse than all Capitulation changes including very important technological breakthroughs – agreements combined that the Ottomans and Imperial China throughout our history – primarily occurred at generational in- have ever signed in their history.”

DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 161 Political science

that the NATO was and remains to be an instrument Until this very day, each of them is portraying the NATO - enterprise as the central security consideration: One as cal, military presence in Europe. Or, as Lord Ismay vo- a must-go, and another as a no-go.38 (institutionalized political justifier) of the US physi No wonder that the absolute pivot of Eastern Eu- Americans in, and the Germans down’. The fact that the rope – Ukraine, is a grand hostage of that very dilemma: UScally remained defined init in1949:Western ‘to Germany, keep the and Russians that the out, Soviet the Between the eastern pan-Slavic hegemony and western Army pulled out from Eastern Germany did not mean ‘imperialism of free market’.39 For Ukraine, Russia is a ‘democratization’ or ‘transition’. It was a direct military geographic, socio-historic, cultural and linguistic real- defeat of the Gorbachev Russia in the duel over the core sectors of Central and Eastern Europe. As direct spoils the seducing, but distant Euro-Atlantic club. Ukraine for of war, DDR disappeared from the political map of Eu- ity. These days, this reality is far less reflected upon than rope being absorbed by Western Germany, while the ited by ethnic Russian; Abkhazia-South Ossetia and Crimea-East more than half of the US 75 major overseas military Ukraine) and were (unsuccessfully) justified as the encirclement preemption, the US-led NATO intervened overtly. In both NATO basesAmerican are Armysituated still in resides Europe. in Upunified to this Germany. day, Germany In fact, cases (Bosnia and Serbia-Kosovo), it was well beyond any mem- hosts 25 of them. bership territory, and short of any UN-endorsed mandate, mean- Admittedly, by the early 1990s, the ‘security hole’– ing without a real international legitimacy. “Humanitarian inter- Eastern Europe, has been approached in multifold fash- vention in Kosovo was never exactly what it appeared… It was a ion: Besides the (pre-Maastricht EC and post-Maastricht) use of imperial power to support a self-determination claim by a national minority”– wrote Michael Ignatieff about the 1990s Bal- EU and NATO, there was the Council of Europe, the CSCE kans events, as fresh and accurate as if reporting was from Sevas- (after the 1993 Budapest summit, OSCE), the EBRD and topol in spring 2014. EIB. All of them were sending the political, economic, 38 It is anticipated that Iran (and Syria) on the Russian south- human dimension, commercial signals, assistance and west flank serve as a pivotal security buffer. Indeed, Teheran is in expertise.36 These moves were making both sides very constant need of a diplomatic cover from Moscow – as it inter- nervous; Russia becoming assertive (on its former pe- nationally seeks, at least, a turn-key technology legalization for 37 itself. In return, Iran refrains from its own Islamic projection on and it shields the Caucasus and Central Asia – considered by Rus- sians as their strategic backyard – from the assertive Wahhabism. ripheries) and Eastern Europe defiantly dismissive. On the other hand, boldness of Iran endorses a perfect pretext for 36 Through the EBRD–EIB conditionalities and EU accession a reinforced missile shield. This – interestingly enough – rather criteria, Eastern Europe was dictated to practically dismantle its encircles Russia then it deters Iran, as the recent architecting of essential industrial and service base. This dictatum upon defeated the Missile shield predominantly to Eastern Europe (from the belligerent – euphemistically called countries in transition or new Baltics, Poland, Czech Republic and Romania) has showed. There Europe – was followed by loans and assets received from the EU are exceptionally few reinforced Patriot missile batteries (of ad- Accession and Structural funds. It was ‘sold’ to the East as award equate quantities and configurations) stationed e.g. in Turkey– and as such presented to the deceived population. (However, it the only NATO member of a close proximity, capable to engage

» ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA was rather to tranquilize the population at large and to pacify Syria or Iran. Hence, while such a missile hype does not deter Iran their local scenes, not at all aimed to modernize, re-industrialize (does not democratize Turkey, does not bring stability to Iraq, nor or diversify economy, or to make production and service sector the regime change in Syria), it still achieves a lot. It seriously com- more efficient or competitive. Consequently, it was merely to sub- promises the 1990 CFE Treaty, since the US unilaterally withdrew sidize the deteriorating purchasing power of the East – to make from the 30-years-in-place ABM treaty in 2002, and poses a chal- the peoples there accustomed to and encouraged for the foreign lenge to the OSCE guarded politico-military/CSBM cooperation goods and services.) Thus, the funds were predominantly con- among the Organization’s 56 member states. sumed for the western commodities. Ergo, Atlantic and Central 39 It is further burdened by the imperialism in a hurry – an in- Europe extended themselves geographically, while economically flammable mix of the Lithuanian-Polish past traumas and Ger- they skillfully managed to subsidize their own industrial base. To man ‘manifest destiny’ of being historically yet again ill-fated; this very end, Eastern Europe’s elites readily took loans, while –in impatient for quick results – simply, unable to capitalize on its return– laying down sovereignty in issuing the guaranties. By do- previous successes. One of my German students recently very ing so, they indebted their own states beyond bearing, and hence, vividly ironized: “The irony of unintended consequence is that they finally eliminated their own countries as any current or fu- the intense relationship between Über-mutti (Chancellor Merkel) ture economic competitor or politico-military challenger. and boxman at large Klitschko is interpreted by Moscow as 37 Since the end of WWII, there was no other external mili- asexual, but not as apolitical.” To say, overly cosmopolitan inter- tary interventions but to the Europe’s East. To be accurate, in its est for a faith of foreigners living in Germany for someone who long history (earlier and nearly double longer than of the War- infamously said: “multiculturalism is dead in Europe…” (Sar- saw pact), the only two interventions of NATO ever conducted kozy, Cameron and Merkel openly and repeatedly viewed and in Europe were both taking place solely on Eastern European diagnosed ‘death of multiculturalism’, as if the cluster of Atlantic- soil. While the two Russian (covert) interventions aimed at its Central Europe’s national-states lived a long, cordial and credible strategic neighborhood (former Soviet republics, heavily inhab- history of multiculturalism on its soil.

162 DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 Bajrektarevic A.

the old rational of the 1814 Vienna Congress as well pivot. For Moscow, Kiev is an emotional place – an in- as the Bismarck’s dictatum to Andrássy at the 1878 dispensableRussia is more bond than of ahistorio-civilizational lame western-flank’ geopoliticalattachment Congress of Berlin. Reinvigorating these geo-economic – something that makes and sustains Russia both Chris- and strategic imperatives, Austria does not hesitate to tian and European. Putin clearly redlined it: Sudden an- add and shed emotional charge: it is nearly neuralgic nexation of Crimea was an unpleasant and humiliating on the Turkish EU accession, Russian presence or inner surprise that will bring a lot of foreign policy hangover Slavic strength. In an attempt to control the core sec- for both the NATO and EU. Thus drifting chopped off and tors of the Balkans, Austria jealously keeps the highest away, Ukraine itself is a prisoner of this domesticated se- curity drama. This false dilemma so tragically imploded its hands.42 At the same time, it is the main protégé of within this blue state, of a 50:50 polarized population, Croatia’spost in the bid Office for the of EUHigh membership Representative (2013). for De-indusBosnia in- over the question where the country belongs – in space, trialized, over-indebted and increasingly de-Slavicized, time and side of history. Conclusively, Eastern Europe is further twisting, while gradually combusted between 43 Ukrainization and Pakistanization.40 Croatia – for that matter of course, further fortifies the Austro-influencedissolution of Yugoslavia, deeper in by the forming Balkan theproper. ever smaller, Least to the East and Nest of the West incapacitatedThe rest of mini the nation-states.Western Balkans (The is prevailingstill finishing politi the- cal culture of the Western Balkans is provincial, anti- too. In the course of last few centuries, the Balkans was European. There was another time when Europe claimed to have The EU has secured itself on the southeastern flank, a comprehensive multilateral setting, while keeping two pivotal (also by the Ottomans), Turkey on the south and cen- powers outside the system– interwar period. No wonder that the ter,either Austria influenced on the ornorth controlled and west, by with Russia the on pockets the east of League of Nations did not prevent but, on contrary, only acceler- ated the pre-WWII events with its ‘system error’, (in)action and lack of outreach. This reads that ever since the late XVII c. (precisely, 42 fromAnglo-French 1686 when influence, Russia toojoined (Greece, the Holy Serbia, League, Albania). and Colloquially known as the Colonial Office, OHR (Office of the High Representative) is the (US military base induced, the past the subsequent 1699 Treaty of Karlovci), the pe- 19th century Congress look alike) ‘internationally’ set body with ripheries kept center of the Balkans soft, as their own the supreme (legislative) prerogatives and highest executive (po- playground. The only (pre-modern and modern) period litical) powers in the country. This non-UN-, non-OSCE-, and when the center was strong enough to prevail, marks non-EU mandated office is increasingly criticized for its shadowy the time of the Balkans’ Bismarck: Tito of Yugoslavia. influence and opaque decision-making. Since its inauguration in 1995, the post of the chief OHR executive – High Represen- Presently, the Eastern Balkans (Romania and tative (nicknamed as Colonial Governor), is dominated by At- - lantic-Central Europe – 6 out of 7 individuals. Although Austria ing hastily admitted to the Union (2007). Turkey is itself is regularly criticized for its dismal score on protection of containedBulgaria) isby cutoff Greece from (1980) any Russianand Cyprus influence (2004), by and be minorities, it managed – like no other state to get the top OHR » ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA is waiting on the EU doorstep for decades without post twice, and to stay in that office for already 9 out of 19 years. 41 Moreover, as the first and only country ever under the EU sanc- any clear prospect to join. All that, as if it follows tions (for inviting its far-right political party to the coalition gov- ernment in 2000), Austria was strong-ly condemned by all EU member states, but not in Bosnia, where it continued to keep the 40 Ukrainization could be attributed to eastern and western post of the High Representative. Slavs– who are fighting distinctions without significant differ- 43 In his well-publicized Sarajevo speech, Turkish Foreign Min- ence. Pakistanization itself should describe the southern Slavs’ ister Davutoglu returned the usual EU rhetorics back to the Euro- scenery: In lieu of truth and reconciliation, guilt is offered as a pean front-yard: “…I have to say that my country is disappointed control mechanism, following the period of an unchecked escala- that an important religious symbol, that of a minaret, has been tion, ranging from a hysteria-of-a-small-difference to a crime-of- subjected to a referendum in Switzerland. It is a mistake to put a otherness purge. fundamental religious right to a popular vote and I hope that this 41 Why is the biggest and richest city of Europe (still) outside mistake will be rectified. The spread of human rights and fun- the Union? Does it illustrate a Huntingtonian fact that the EU is damental freedoms may not have been possible, had countries not as multi-religious multilateral system as its younger (twin) chosen to put specific freedoms to referenda. It might be useful brother – ASEAN, but only a nest for the western Christian Um- to recall that the Franciscan Catholic Monastery in Fojnica, some mah? True, but not completely. The last spot of Europe with both 35 miles from here- Sarajevo, holds the original copy of an edict economic and demographic growth is Turkey. Just one more Eu- issued by the Ottoman Sultan on 28 May 1463. This edict protects ropean country also has a steady economic growth – Russia. An- the religious rights of Bosnian Christians and the sanctity of their other commonality for them is that both are outside the system churches. It is one of the oldest documents on religious freedom which portrays itself as a truly Europo-cosmopolitan and pan- in Europe ever.” (BiH MVP Archives, 14 DEC 2009)

DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 163 Political science

intellectual, xenophobic, irresponsible anti-politics). pear with the return to a historical legacy –life in a Less than a decade after President Tito’s death, the larger, multinational entity. tectonic changes in the Eastern bloc have caused the In his luminary work ‘The New Asian Hemisphere’, dramatic change of geopolitical position of Yugosla- Mahbubani accurately concludes that Gorbachev – not via and the NAM. The external players and local élites, understanding the real success of Western strength and whom they chose to boost and cooperate with, had si- power, handed over the Soviet empire and got nothing lently agreed that for the amortization of revived An- in return.47 Is our history directional or conceivable, glo-French, Germanophone, Russian and Turkish (tra- dialectic or cyclical? The Soviet Union was far more of ditional), and the US (non-traditional) projections on a classic continental military empire (overtly brutal; the region, the Southern Slavs should (de-industrialize, rigid, anti-individual, omnipresent, secretive), while de-Slavicize, and) live in far more than two states. In the absence of compromise among the major external hierarchical, yet asocial, exploitive, pervasive, polar- geopolitical projectors, the region still undergoes the the US was more a finan-cial empire (covertly brutal; fragmentational erosion, being kept (like once upon a Athens vs. Sparta. Phoenicia vs. Rome. Thus, Soviets time Germany) as a soft center for strong peripheral wentizing). bankrupt Bear of permafrostby mid 1980s. vs. fishSo did of thethe warmAmericans seas. pressures.44 Bosnia is the best example of such an ex- (the ‘white man burden’ fractured them already by the ternal intrusion, and of the powers that purposely set a Vietnam war, with the Nixon shock dysfunctional government.45 Although assertive, none of the Four + the US wants to prevail in this core sec- an illusion of it) insofar as to be(come) only a officializing debtor empire it), tor of the Balkans (and solely take a burden), but wish throughbut the United the Wall States Street managed guaranties. its financial48 Sputnik capital titanium (or to keep its presence strong enough as to observe and deter others. Nevertheless, ever since the Antique Roman called Dayton Peace Accord, and further on strongly encouraged times, the Southern Slavs territories (even all of the and supported in everyday practice for nearly two decades. It is clear that any conceptual, therefore inclusive politics, would sooner Balkans) have always existed within the larger mul- or later end up in a reconciliatory, integrative approach. Perpetuat- tinational entities (be it Byzantium, Hungary, the Ot- ing the anti-politics in Bosnia aims at keeping the former Yugoslav tomans, the Habsburg Empire or Yugoslavia) – hardly (political, cultural, economic and territorial) space separated, an- ever in more than two states. Accommodation to a tagonized – fragmented into little xenophobic and inward-looking life in the numerous nano nation-state-alikes is a his- quasi nation-states. Moreover, as the only surviving (last) state of the multiethnic constituency anywhere from Adriatic to Pacific, torical novelty, therefore only a transitory stage of the Bosnia has to remain purposely dysfunctional. Slavs elsewhere Western Balkans.46 The lasting solution will only ap- have to be painfully reminded that a single-ethnos based, nano-to- small sized nation-state is the best option for them. 47 44 Or, by the words of the senior UN diplomat who, contemplat- How deep is the rabbit hole… Republic of Macedonia is a ing with me over the question whether a middle-power foreign

» ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA good demonstration case for it. No other European country was policy is adequate for a great power, recently told me in Geneva: forced to abandon its own constitutional name and seek the in- “The difference between Russia and the Soviet Union is that the ternational recognition under the strange name of a saturated Federation desperately looks around for respect, but leaves the country that does not exist anymore for over 20 years – Former world responsibilities solely to the US. As known, admiration and Yugoslav Federal Republic of Macedonia. respect is earned not given for free.” Clearly, the post-Soviet Rus- 45 By far the largest EU Delegation ever run is the Mission in sia avoids any strategic global competition with the US, but feels Bosnia (Delegation of the EU to BiH). As the Mission’s staff kept rather insulted with the current strategic global partnership – as increasing over the last two decades, so did the distance of Bos- both the US and China treat Moscow as a junior partner. Is it nia from any viable prospect of joining the Union. Many around possible to (re-)gain a universal respect without any ideological are bitterly joking if the Mission’s true mandate is – in fact – to appeal? That could be debated, but one thing is certain, even the hinder, and not to assist the EU integration. According to the mid-size powers such as Brazil, Indonesia or Turkey have moved UN and ICTY, Bosnia has suffered genocide on its territory – the on from a bandwagoning, reactive and slow to a proactive, accu- worst atrocities on European soil since the end of WWII. Judging rate and extensive foreign policy. the speed of admission process offered to Bosnia, seems that the 48 How was a debtor empire born? One of the biggest (nearly EU does not like its victims. Sarajevo 20 years after is a perfect lit- schizophrenic) dilemmas of liberalism, ever since David Hume mus paper – an EU barometer, for the ethical deficit of the Union and Adam Smith, was an insight into reality; whether the world is and its members! essentially Hobbesian or Kantian. The state will rob you, but in ab- 46 Bosnia as a habitual mix of cultures, ethnicities and religions sence of it, the pauperized masses will mob you. The invisible hand has a historical legacy and strong quality of integration, a cohesive of Smith’s followers have found the satisfactory answer – sovereign spill-over potential for the region. Therefore, instead of conceptual debt: relatively strong government of the state (heavily) indebted politics after the war, the territorial anti-politics (with the confron- (firstly to local merchants, than to foreigners). With such a mixed tational political culture) was at first externally imposed by the so- blessing no empire can easily demonetize its legitimacy.

164 DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 Bajrektarevic A. vs. gold mine of printed paper. Nothing epitomizes this question whether our history is dialectic or cyclical, the better than the words of the longest serving US Federal current Ukrainian events are like a bad-taste déjà vu. Reserve’s boss, Greenspan, who famously said to then ‘End of the Cold War’ – such a buzz word, of a dia- French President Chirac: “Indeed, dollar is our curren- metrically different meaning. East would interpret it cy, but your problem”. Hegemony vs. hegemoney. This very nature of power explains why the Ameri- have no such an illusion. To them it is the end of war, cans have missed to take the mankind into completely whichas the finalonly endcame of after confrontation, the unconditional while the surrender Westerners of other direction, towards the non-confrontational, de- East. Another powerful evidence to support our claim: Just 20 years ago, distance between Moscow and NATO psychologized, the self-realizing humankind. They had troops stationed in Central Europe (e.g. Berlin) was suchcarbonized, a chance de-monetized/de- when, past the financializedGorbachev’s uncondi and de-- over 1.600 km. Today, it is only 120 km from St. Pe- tional surrender of the Soviet bloc, the US – unconstra- tersburg.52 Realities have dramatically changed for the ined as a ‘lonely superpower’ – solely dictated terms of Atlantic-Central Europe and for Russia, while for East- reference.49 ern Europe much remains the same – East still serves opportunity for the US. The very epilogue of the WWII others as a strategic depth.53 meant a full Sadlysecurity enough, guaranty that for was the not US: the Geo-economi first missed- In short, Atlantic Europe is a political power- cally – 52% of anything manufactured in the world was house, with two of 3 European nuclear powers and carrying a label Made in USA, and geostrategically – the US had uninterruptedly enjoyed nearly a decade of the Council, P–5. Central Europe is an economic power- ‘nuclear monopoly’. Up to this very day, the US scores house,2 out of Russophone five permanent Europe members is an energy of the power-house, UN Security the biggest number of N-tests conducted, the largest Scandinavian Europe is all of that a bit, and Eastern Eu- stockpile of nuclear weaponry, and it represents the rope is none of it.54 only power ever deploying this ‘ultimate weapon’ on other nation. To complete the irony, Americans enjoy geographic advantage like no other empire ever. Save real winner of the superpowers’ playoff is actually the third. It is the US, as Ikenberry vividly notes: “every major power not only that Asia is resurfacing very self-confident. Deeper and in the world lives in a crowded geopolitical neighbor- structural, the issue is more subversive as well: One of the most remarkable achievements in the world history of capita-lism is hood where shifts in power routinely provoke counter- happening under the leadership of the largest Communist party balancing…”50 The US neighbors are oceans. on this planet. The very epilogue of lasting ideological confronta- Indeed, no successful empire does rely merely on tion between Byzantium and (Sassanid) Persia and their colossal coercion, be it abroad or at home. However, unable to geopolitical overextension, was an appearance of the third power escape its inner logics and deeply-rooted appeal of center on geopolitical and ideological terrain, gradually prevail- con- ing from the 7th century onwards. frontational nostalgia, the prevailing archrival is only a 52 winner, rarely a game-changer.51 So, to the above asked Despite the (formal) end of the Cold War, and contrary to

all what we celebrate as a technological progress, our Gini coef- » ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA ficients’ distances are far larger than they were two decades ago. Additionally, as the EU was getting closer to Eastern and Rus- 49 One of the biggest ideological victories of the US is the fact that sophone Europe, the socio-economic inequalities and politico- only two decades years after the Soviet collapse, Russia today has an cultural exclusions there were growing wider. economy, dominated by oil-rich class of billionaires, whose assets 53 Before too long, Washington will have to decide: either con- are 20% of country’s GDP –by far the largest share held by the ultra- tainment or accommodation – a viable truce with Moscow or un- rich in any major economy. The second largest ideological victory conditional backing of Russia’s closest neighbours. If Putin finally for the US is reported by the New York Times that the outgoing abandons the non-confrontational course, and regularizes the leader of the country that officially rests on ideology of oppressed play on a confrontational nostalgia card, the US-led West might working class has allegedly accumulated family wealth of 1,7 bil- award Moscow by returning Baltics, some central-southern por- lion in less than a decade of his rule. Some in the US are not that tions of Eastern Europe, along with Central Asia and Caucasus happy about it, and are wondering – like Fukuyama in his luminary to Russian sphere of influence. If the history of Russo-American essay – “where is a counter-narrative?” To ease the pain for all bal- confrontations is deep, wide and long, their ability to broker a deal ance-seekers: Even if the ideological triumph of the US might be a is remarkably extensive, too. Or, as prof. W.R. Mead elaborates: clear cut, geopolitically it remains undecided. While Russians were “…In deciding how hard to press Russia over Ukraine, the While absorbing the shock of loss of their historical empire, the ‘lonely House cannot avoid calculating the impact on Russia’s stance on superpower’ didn’t know what to do with its colossal gain. the Syrian war or Iran’s nuclear program.” (Mead, W.R. (2014), 50 Ikenberry, G.J. (2014), The Illusion of Geopolitics, Foreign Af- The Return of Geopolitics, Foreign Affairs Magazine 93(3) 2014) fairs Magazine 93(3) 2014 54 Does anyone still remember ‘heroic’ labor union Solidarność 51 There are many who would claim that the West was unable from the Gdańsk shipyards? Well, today there are no more union- to capitalize on the collapse of the Soviet Union, and that the ists, their leader Lech Wałęsa is forgotten, as there are no ship-

DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 165 Political science

From WWI to www. 9/11 or 11/9? 100 years after the outbreak of the WWI on 28th June 2014, young generations of Europeans are being For most of our history both progress as well as its taught in schools about a singularity of an entity called (horizontal) transmission was extremely slow and te- the EU. However, as soon as serious external or inner dious a process. Well to the classic period of Alexander security challenges emerge, the compounding parts the Macedonian and his glorious Alexandrian library, of the true, historic Europe are resurfacing again. For- the speed of our transmissions –however moder- merly in Iraq (with the exception of France) and now ate– was still always surpassing cycles of our break- with Libya, Mali, Syria and Ukraine: Central Europe is hesitant to act, Atlantic Europe is eager, Scandinavian be faster than the speed of their transmissions – that Europe is absent, and while Eastern Europe is band- wasthroughs. a point When of our the departure. breakthroughs Simply, finallyour civilizations turned to wagoning, Russophone Europe is opposing. The 1986 Reagan-led Anglo-American bombing of Libya was a their respective techno-agrarian, politico-military, eth- one-time, head-hunting punitive action. This time, both no-religious,started to significantly ideological differentiate and economic from set-ups. each other In the in Libya and Syria (Iraq, Mali, Ukraine, too) have been giv- eve of grand discoveries, that very event transformed en a different attachment: The considerable presence wars and famine from the low-impact and local into of China in Africa; successful pipeline deals between the bigger and colossal. Faster cycles of technological Russia and Germany (which, while circumventing East- breakthroughs, patents and discoveries than their own ern Europe, will deprive it from any transit-related transmission, primarily occurred on the Old continent. bargaining premium, and will tacitly pose an effective That event marked a birth of mighty European empires joint Russo-German pressure on the Baltic states, Po- and their (liberal) schools of applied biologism, rac- land and Ukraine),56 ism, genocide, organized plunders, ethno-social engi- neering and eugenics, and similar forms of ideological and finally relative decline of the mannered and well-informed, erudites, thinkers of paramount dreamt hope – all for the sake of modern times. From analytical insights, charismatic charming and highly intelligent, WWIjustifiers. to www. For theIs this past modernity few centuries, of internet we lived age, fear with but all they represented intellectual crème de la crème of that time so- cieties. By the 1945 San Francisco Conference, the world already the suddenly reviled breakthroughs and their instant counts several hundreds of active ambassadors. At present, transmission, now harboring us in a bay of fairness, there are some 25–30,000 individuals with this title (20–25,000 harmony and overall reconciliation?55 active national, and some 5–8,000 retired national, as well as up to 1,000 paradiplomats of ambassadorial ranks serving IOs). Sadly enough, in more than a few cases, this post is obtained yards ever since Poland (eager, but without careful preparations today by persons who are simply career opportunists, without have) opened its EU accession talks… The similar termination of sufficient professional or moral merits to hold ambassadorial all public subsidies is stipulated in chapter 8 (Competition Policy) position (individuals who just climbed their careers by being of the accession treaty admitting Croatia to the EU, and the Eu- yes-men, no-action-no-mistake-stance grey apparatchiks, dis-

» ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA ropean Commission has been closely monitoring the implemen- loyal bed mannered and ill-informed but well webbed-up in ei- tation of the ‘restructuring’ program for the Croatian shipyards. ther nepotistic or crony networks, political removals, rich indi- This ongoing shipyards demise will complete Croatia’s de-indus- viduals who bought the post much like the car is purchased). In trialization (adding to the already record high unemployment this gradual but total erosion of ambassadorship, something still of some 25% in the coastal areas). All over the globe, states as- remains firm and stabile: privileges, immunities and of course a sist shipbuilding as it is a formidable job provider: In Italy, the paycheque /Source on figures: author’s free account./ Fincantieri shipyards are entirely in public hands; in France, the 56 In late spring 2011 Chancellor Merkel has surprisingly but state is still a minority shareholder in the biggest yards such as repeatedly and firmly promised to her fellow Germans the clos- STX-Chantiers de l’Atlantique. Even in South Korea, the world ing of all national nuclear plants. Mixing it with the growth and champion in naval construction, the state subsidizes shipbuild- stability move, many applauded to this heated political rhetoric, ing. Seems that all what is globally acceptable is forbidden in as a long-waited and badly needed plan for the High/Green Tech Eastern Europe; all the way from Poland to Croatia, in the name renewal of the EU. Adding a flavor of emotional charge to it, most of European integration. analysts have interpreted the Chancellor’s bold word of promise 55 At this point, let me allow myself a little story in bracket. with the safety concerns related to that time brewing Japanese It is not to romanticise the past but to note on an erosion of Fukoshima drama, as if Germany shared Japan’s geography, re- one very important governmental post, which is a key for daily actor technology and seismic activity. However, the majority of execution of international relations… By my free account, in commentators remained silent on the timing which was well co- 1815 at the time of Vienna Congress, there are not more than 50 inciding with the successful completion of the first phase of the ambassadors worldwide. By the Berlin Congress, their number so-called North Stream. It was the first of several planned, long is still well below 100. Each and every one of them is an excep- pipelines that delivers hydrocarbons from Russia directly to Ger- tional individual of the high moral grounds, of a deep passion many via the North Sea seabed. This arching pipeline eliminates affection and loyalty, of an excellent professional standing. Well- any transit bargaining premium from the Eastern Europeans and

166 DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 Bajrektarevic A.

US and re-calibration of their European commitments. All of this combined, must have triggered alarm bells across Atlantic Europe.57 This is to understand that although seemingly - ments, each of them with its own dynamics, legacies andunified, its own Europe political is essentially culture (considerations, composed of several priorities seg and secure on the one end, and (the EU and non-EU) Easternand anxieties): Europe Atlanticas well asand Russia Central on theEurope other confident end, in- secure and neuralgic, therefore, in a permanent quest for additional security guaranties. “America did not change on September 11. It only became more itself” – Robert Kagan famously claimed.58 Paraphrasing it, we may say: From 9/11 (09th Novem- ber 1989 in Berlin) and shortly after, followed by the genocidal wars all over Yugoslavia, up to the Euro, MENA or ongoing Ukrainian crisis, Europe didn’t change. It only became more itself – a conglomerate of

Postfive different Scriptum Europes.

How can we observe and interpret (the distance be- tween) success and failure from a historical perspec- with a single) answer... The immediate force behind the rapidtive? This and questionsuccessful remains European a difficult overseas one projection to (satisfy was all actually the two elements combined: Europe’s techno- logical (economic) and demographic expansion (from nalized violence and organized (legitimized) coercion early 16th century on). However, West/Europe was not that Europe successfully projected. The 21st century – frankly speaking – winning over the rest of this planet Europeans often forget this ‘inconvenient truth’, while by the superiority of its views and ideas, by purity of its the non-Europeans usually never do. virtues or by clarity of its religious thoughts and prac- The large, self-maintainable, self-assured and secure tices. For a small and rather insecure civilization, it was civilizations (e.g. situated on the Asian landmass) were » ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA - traditionally less militant and confrontational (or the nation-state ‘exclusive’), but more esoteric and generous, just the superiority and efficiency in applying the ratio - poses in effect a joint Russo-German pressure on the Baltic states, lizations (e.g. situated on a modest and minor, geographi- Poland, Ukraine, and even as far as Azerbaijan and Georgia. inclusive, attentive and flexible. The smaller, insecure civi 57 cally remote and peripheral, natural resources scarce, In response to the MENA crisis, Europe failed to keep up a and climatically exposed continent of Europe) were more broad agenda and all-participatory basis with its strategic neighbor- hood, although having institutions, interest and credibility to do so. focused, obsessively organized and “goal–oriented” (in- Europe compromised its own perspectives and discredited its own cluding the invention of virtue out of necessity – a nation- transformative powers’ principle by undermining the indigenous state). No wonder that European civilization has never and authentic institutional framework: Barcelona Process (EU), the ever generated a single religion (although it admittedly Euro-Med (OSCE). The only direct involvement was a military en- gagement via the Atlantic Europe-led coalition of the willing (Libya, Mali, Syria). The consequences are striking: The sort of Islam that the East-revelled religion of Christianity). On the other hand, EU supported (and the means deployed to do so) in the Middle East nodoctrinated, other civilization ‘clergified’ but the and European headquartered has ever the created Middle a yesterday, is the sort of Islam (and the means it uses) that Europe gets today. No wonder that Islam in Turkey (or in Kirgizstan and in In- This work is at first published in Bahasa lan- donesia) is broad, liberal and tolerant while the one of the Northern significant, even a relevant political ideology. Europe is dismissive, narrow and assertive. guage, Jakarta 2011 (Seputar Indonesia). Its ad- vanced version was published in Italian language, 58 Kagan, R. (2004) Of Paradise and Power, Vintage Books (page 85).

DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 167

Political science

Rome 2013 (IsAG-Rome), and by the Foreign Policy * All displayed maps per the author’s idea made by Journal of Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur 2013 (JDFR). The Anneliese Gattringer. first English language version was published by the ** All displayed maps per the author’s idea made Routledge/Francis & Taylor and IAFOR (London – by Anneliese Gattringer. Washington 2013). This is yet, unpublished, expanded *** The 100-years anniversary poster made by version of the text prepared for the 100th anniversary.

References: Amna Mahić.

2. Toynbee, A. J. (1934–61), A Study of History, Vol VII: Universal States; Universal Churches (Oxford University 1. PressDizdar, 1954) M. (1971), and Vol Stone XII: ReconsiderationsSleeper (org. Kameni (Oxford Spavač), University Svjetlost Press Sarajevo 1961) 3. McBrien, R. (2000), Lives of the Popes, Harper San Francisco

Brussels 5.4. Kissinger,Bajrektarević, H. ( 1994),A. (2013), Diplomacy, Future of A EuropeTouchstone (Of Lisbon Book and Generational Interval), EU Journal Europe’s World, 6. Siedentop, L. (2001), Democracy in Europe, Penguin Books 7. Bruton, J. (2013), How real is the danger of an EU collapse?, EU Journal Europe’s World 23(13) 2013, Brussels 8. Brzezinski, Z. (1997), The Grand Chessboard, Basic Books (Perseus); 9. Leonard, M. (2005), Why Europe Will Run the 21st century, Fourth Estate London 10. Fukuyama, F. (2012), The Future of History, Foreign Affairs Magazine 91(1) 2012

Structural Similarities and Differences, Crossroads – the Macedonian Foreign Policy Journal, 4 (1), page 111– 11. 112,Bajrektarević, M-MFA07. A. (2007), Verticalization of Historical Experiences: Europe’s and Asia’s Security Structures – 12. Friedman, G. (2009), The Next 100 Years, Anchor Books/Random House NY;

14. Winder, S. (2014), Danubia – A Personal History of Habsburg Europe, Barnes & Noble 15.13. Ferguson, C�engic, E. (1985),N. (2005), S Krležom Colossus iz – dana The Riseu dan and I – FallIV, Globus of the AmericanZagreb Rad Empire, Beograd Penguin Svjetlost Books Sarajevo (page 255) - ship summarizing the recommendations and conclusions of the OSCE Ministerial Summit Prague 2005), 16. OSCEBajrektarević, Documents/EEA A. (2005), 2005/05/14857/En Green/Policy Paper Submitted to the closing plenary of the Ministerial (Chairman 17. Clark, C. (2013), The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914, HarperCollins Publishers 18. Mahbubani, K. (2008), The New Asian Hemisphere, Public Affairs, Perseus Books Group (page: 44–45) 19. Stiglitz, J.E. (2012), The Price of Inequality, Penguin Economics » ) www.nbpublish.com BENE (ООО « НБ-Медиа © NOTA - politica Rivista dell’Istituto di Alti Studi in Geopolitica e Scienze Ausiliarie, Rome 21.20. Wallerstein,Bajrektarević, I. (1999),A. (2013), The Da End Lisbona of the a WorldBarcellona: as We Tutti Know gli it: strumenti Social Science dimenticati for the dell´ XXI Unionecentury, Europea, Minneapolis: Geo University of Minnesota Press 22. Ignatieff, M. (2003), Empire lite: Nation-Building in Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan, Vintage (page 70)

23. Bosniaks),Kafija Pruščak, BZK-Preporod, H. (1596), Universal Sarajevo theory of the global governing wisdoms (Usul Al-hikam fi nizami-el-alem, org. Temelji mudrosti o uređenju svijeta), taken from: Imamovic, M. (1998), Historija Bošnjaka (History of 25. Garton Ash, T. (2012), The Crisis of Europe – How the Union Came Together and Why It’s Falling Apart, For- 24. eignYoungs, Affairs R. (2011), Magazine Europe’s 91(5) Decline2012 and Fall – The struggle against global irrelevance, Profile Books 26. Maalouf, A. (2009), Le Dérèglement du monde : Quand nos civilisations s’épuisent, Grasset, Paris 27. Mead, W.R. (2014), The Return of Geopolitics – The Revenge of the Revisionist Powers, Foreign Affairs Maga- zine 93(2) 2014

Europe pays for it, Nordic Page, Oslo Norway 29.28. Ikenberry,Bajrektarević, G.J. (2014),A. (2013), The Multiculturalism Illusion of Geopolitics, is D(r)ead Foreign in Europe Affairs – Magazine MENA Oil 93(3) and the2014 (hidden) political prize 30. Kagan, R. (2004), Of Paradise and Power, Vintage Books (page 85)

168 DOI: 10.7256/1339-3057.2014.2.12495 Bajrektarevic A.

References (transliterated):

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