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CDiSS COMMENTARY National Defence University Malaysia (NDUM) Centre for Defence and International Security Studies (CDiSS) cdisscommentary.upnm.edu.my No . 9 5 – 15 December 2020 CDiSS NDUM Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical issues and contemporary developments. CDiSS commentaries and responses represent the views of the respective authors. These commentaries may be reproduced electronically or in print with prior permission from CDiSS and due recognition to the author(s) and CDiSS. To contribute article and provide comment or feedback, please email the Editor at [email protected] INDONESIA’S PRESIDENT GIVES BIRTH TO A POLITICAL DYNASTY By Ainur Rohmah Family gets a healthy leg up. Indonesian President Joko Widodo, who came to power in 2014 as a fresh figure seemingly unhobbled by political fetters, has revived the public’s Suharto- era memory of political nepotism by likely becoming the first active president to preside over political sinecures for both his son and son-in- law. A growing chorus of critics says the president’s reform credentials have increasingly faded as his time in office lengthens. 1 The charges of nepotism have hardly helped. Despite presidential protestations of electoral innocence, his first son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 33, is predicted to win the mayoral election of Surakarta, more commonly known as Solo, a post previously held by his father. Jokowi's son-in-law, Bobby Nasution, 29, is expected to win the mayoralty in his hometown, Medan City in North Sumatra. Several quick counts by survey institutions show Gibran and his running mate, Teguh Prakosa, winning more than 80 percent of the votes. Bobby and his running mate Aulia Rahman received more than 50 percent in their race. The official announcement of the results is scheduled by the General Election Commission in each area before December 23. The elections were held on December 9, involving more than 100 million voters to elect leaders in nine provinces, 224 districts, and 37 cities. The event was criticized for being conducted in the face of the coronavirus pandemic, with cases continuing to rise and with political campaigning adding to the Covid problems. An average of 6,000 new cases are being reported each day, with a cumulative total of more than 617,000, the highest in Asia. More than 18,000 have died, a figure that most authorities believe is low given the country’s less-than-optimum reporting standards. Data from the Covid-19 Handling Task Force show that 24 regions holding elections are so-called red zones (high transmission rate) and 189 others are reporting moderate transmission rates. Jokowi, a former furniture businessman and the first Indonesian leader without political or military baggage, began his career as a politician by becoming mayor of Solo in 2005. His career took off quickly when he became governor of Jakarta in 2012. He won the 2014 presidential election with support from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), a party that has embraced both of his children. The 59-year-old chief executive won over the public's heart by first publicly distancing his three children and their families from political positions, an attitude which his supporters considered to be the antithesis of Suharto's deeply corrupt families during the 32 years of the New Order, which began in 1966. As late as March 2018, Gibran said he wasn’t interested in becoming a politician. Apart from having no experience, he said, involvement in politics didn’t generate a lot of money, except through corruption. At that time, he said he had made sure that his family would not create a political dynasty. "My father doesn't have a political party. There is no (political dynasty). The people will be pity if there is a political dynasty," Gibran was quoted as saying by local media tempo.co. But Gibran last year suddenly registered as a member of the PDI-P and expressed his intention to participate in the Solo regional elections. The PDI-P ditched its own prospective candidate after Gibran registered, with PDI-P leader Megawati Soekarno Putri choosing him to represent the party. Gibran and his younger brother, Kaesang Pangarep, are known as successful culinary entrepreneurs. Bobby, who married Jokowi's second offspring Kahiyang 2 Ayu in 2017, is known as a culinary and property businessman. Despite their lack of political experience, both were supported by the majority of parties in their respective regions. "This is history, where the active president's children and in-laws are elected as regional heads," said Ujang Komarudin, a political analyst from Al Azhar University, a sign of the family’s growing clout in Indonesian politics. They benefit from the position of their father, who has great power to move various state institutions. Jokowi has a big name in Solo, his hometown, because he led this city for two periods. He even won more than 90 percent of the votes in the 2010 election to lead the city for the second time. "All politicians understand that if the president's son runs (in the election), no one will be able to fight back," said Komarudin. Pangi Syarwi Chaniago, execute director of the Voxpol Center, said that in the case of Bobby, while Jokowi’s power did contribute to the victory, the incumbent's dismal performance and the social situation in the area also contributed. "For example, the flood disaster that occurred before the voting day added to the dissatisfaction of the Medan community with the incumbent's performance.” Jokowi said in an interview on local television in November that he had never pushed his children to follow in his footsteps as politicians, but he argued that they have the same political rights as other citizens, the right to be elected and to vote. He said he had ordered them to find parties and campaign on their own without involving him. However, Komarudin said their candidacies as regional heads are full of elements of a political dynasty, which while even though it was their right, should have been avoided by Jokowi if he wants to foster a healthy democratic climate. "If we agree with a democratic system, then (political dynasties) should be avoided. But these days it's growing," he said. Trends show a growing tendency for officials’ families to participate in regional elections and hold positions in the legislative and executive branches. The Nagara Institute, a think tank, noted that at least 124 regional head candidates in the 2020 local leader elections have links to power elites, both at the local and central levels. According to academic Yoes Kenawas, 202 candidates were related to political dynasties in the 2015, 2017, and 2018 elections. Some 117 of them won. So Gibran and Bobby are hardly alone. Several other candidates linked to the political dynasty are also predicted to win, including the son of Cabinet Secretary Pramono Anung, Hanindhito Himawan; the nephew of the former Banten Governor and corruption defendant Ratu Atut Choisiyah, Pilar Saga Ichsan; wife of Banyuwangi Regent Azwar Anas, Ipuk Fiestiandini. However, some are also predicted to lose. Based on several survey institutions’ quick counts, the daughter of Vice President Ma'ruf Amin, Siti 3 Nur Azizah, and the nephew of Gerindra Party Chair Prabowo Subianto, Rahayu Saraswati, lost to Pilar Saga Ichsan in a power struggle in South Tangerang City. Nagara Institute Executive Director Akbar said political dynasty circles will protect each other's interests. He is worried that the problems in the regions will not be resolved because the formula used is for the safety and comfort of the groups. "We are not going anywhere and we are actually returning to the past,” Faisal said. “Policies that are extreme and which are good for the future of the region will not be taken.” Faisal said the public isn’t educated against the dangers, which should be the task of political parties. He is pessimistic because in fact the current parties, which number at least 14, are only oriented towards victory, not on recruitment and regeneration. "Political parties are enjoying this situation," he said. This article was published in Asia Sentinel dated 14 December 2020. Republished with permission from Asia Sentinel. CENTRE FOR DEFENCE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES (CDiSS) National Defence University of Malaysia Sungai Besi Camp, 57000 Kuala Lumpur Phone: (+603) 9051 3400 ext. 4618 Fax: (+603) 9051 3031 E-mail: [email protected] 4 .