African Megatrends: Looking Over the Horizon Into the Future

FIIA MARCH 2021 BRIEFING PAPER I 305

AFRICAN MEGATRENDS

LOOKING OVER THE HORIZON INTO THE FUTURE

Olli Ruohomäki

-◄ FINNISH - INSTITUTE 11 OF INTERNATIONAL - AFFAIRS FIIA BRIEFING PAPER MARCH 2021 I 305

AFRICAN MEGATRENDS LOOKING OVER THE HORIZON INTO THE FUTURE

• Tere are seven megatrends shaping the future of Africa. Tese include population growth, urbanization, climate change, democratization, protracted confict, connectivity and geopolitical competition.

• Te sustainability of positive developments in Africa is somewhat tenuous and uneven. Tere are both prospects for peace and prosperity, as well as instability and insecurity across the vast and diverse continent.

• Te young population wants to have a say in the direction that the future takes, and this may afect the course of the continent’s developments, particularly vis-à-vis the development of democracy. Tere are possibilities for leapfrogging in some felds, as exemplifed by digital connectivity.

OLLI RUOHOMÄKI Non-Resident Senior Fellow Global Security research programme Finnish Institute of International Afairs

ISBN 978-951-769-678-4 ISSN 1795-8059 Language editing: Lynn Nikkanen Cover photo: Michael Craus / Adobe Stock

Arkadiankatu 23 b The Finnish Institute of International Affairs is an independent research institute that POB 425 / 00101 Helsinki produces high-level research to support political decision-making as well as scientific and C Telephone +358 10)9 432 7000 FINNISH public debate both nationally and internationally. INSTITUTE Fax +358 [0)9 432 7799 All manuscripts are reviewed by at least two other experts in the field to ensure the high - OF INTERNATIONAL quality of the publications. In addition, publications undergo professional language checking -II. AFFAIRS www.fiia.fi and editing. The responsibility for the views expressed ultimately rests with the authors. AFRICAN MEGATRENDS LOOKING OVER THE HORIZON INTO THE FUTURE

INTRODUCTION Te choice of these particular megatrends is based on the assumption that they are deemed the most rel- Africa is an enormous continent composed of several evant for the formation of the big picture of the de- regions and 54 states, populated with more than 1.3 bil- velopments on the continent. Te main question that lion people. Tere are more than 1,500 languages and arises when contemplating Africa’s future is how these diverse cultures. Both low-income and high-income megatrends might afect the overall picture of what the countries and disparate levels of development are found continent will look like in a few decades. Will Africa on the continent. be a growth success story or will positive develop- There is both concern and hope in the air regard- ments be tempered by various internal and external ing the trajectory that Africa’s development will take. challenges? Dwelling solely on negative news about confict, political turmoil, hunger and refugees is not constructive. Neither is seeing Africa through ‘rose-tinted glasses’ RAPID POPULATION GROWTH as a continent full of promise for trade and investment prospects. Rather, a balanced and realistic vision that Forty-three million Africans are born every year, a looks over the horizon into the future is required. number that will increase to 53 million annually by Talking about the diverse and vast continent as a 2040. More than half of the global population growth whole is fraught with potential accusations of sweeping between now and 2050 is expected to occur in Africa. generalizations and even arrogance. Nonetheless, this is Fertility rates across Africa vary significantly, exactly what the business of forecasting is all about. To ranging from 7 in Niger to 1.4 in Mauritius. Accord- put it another way, predicting the future is essentially ing to the United Nations Population Division, there about painting the canvas with broad strokes and seeing is a large unmet demand for modern contraceptives the big picture. It is then up to area studies, sociology, whereby nearly a third of the population in sub- anthropology, political science and similar disciplines Saharan Africa is unserved. Tere is a strong corre- to dwell on the more nuanced and detailed case studies. lation between high child mortality and high fer- Hence, despite the complexity that forecasting tility. As children’s health improves, mortality de- the future of Africa entails, it is possible to outline clines and the demand for larger families decreases. the main contours of the trajectory of change that in- Fertility rates are also closely associated with income forms the course of developments on the continent.1 levels, education as well as urbanization. Many Af- It is with this in mind that this Briefng Paper exam- rican urban women have fewer children than their ines seven megatrends that are shaping the future of rural counterparts. For instance, in Ghana’s capital, Africa, namely: Accra, fertility rates are close to replacement levels, • Rapid population growth whereas those in rural parts of the country are closer • Dysfunctional urbanization to six children per woman. • Climate change Tere is also wide variation in terms of median age • Resilience of neo-patrimonial politics and slow and life expectancy across the continent. Te lowest democratization is in Niger with the median age being 16 years and life • Protracted confict expectancy 62 years, with the corresponding fgures • Attempts at connectivity and unlocking trade in Egypt standing at 25 and 72. Te median age of the potential continent is 20 years. Africa has the largest youth • A new scramble for Africa bulge as a proportion of the total adult population in the world. A large youth bulge is associated with in- 1 Te author of this paper is inspired by the authoritative work of leading South African scholar Jakkie Cilliers, who in his recent book Africa First! Igniting a creased confict risk and criminality. Tis phenomenon Growth Revolution (2020) uses 11 scenarios to unpack fundamental transitions required in agriculture, education, demographics, manufacturing and govern- is linked to the correlation between lack of education ance to ignite a growth revolution in Africa. In addition, the African Develop- ment Bank Group publishes useful analyses that review the recent economic and opportunities and gainful employment and a youthful political situations and predict the short- and long-term economic, political and social evolution of most African countries. population with few future prospects.

FIIA BRI EFING PAPER MARCH 2021 I 3 Africa’s very large number of children currently infrastructure break down, power grids are overbur- poses a drag on development. At the moment, there dened, the urban environment becomes dilapidated, are 1.3 persons of working age for every one depend- epidemics and diseases spread, and street violence ant in Africa. When the continent reaches a ratio of takes its toll, turning many parts of the crowded ur- 1.7 persons of working age to each dependant, it will ban spaces into what can only be described as ‘fe- enter a window of rapid economic growth from the ral cities’. These feral cities exist side-by-side with contribution of labour. Tis fgure is considered to be wealthy neighbourhoods, where the more afflu- the ideal ratio for economic growth by demographers. ent citizens live behind barbed wire fences patrolled According to current projections, this is likely to hap- by security guards. With increased socio-economic pen in Africa in 2054, which means that it will take inequality, overburdened urban spaces become sus- quite a few decades for Africa to reach a stage where ceptible to instability and insecurity. Without massive economic growth will start to kick in and pay divi- investment in urban environments, African urban in- dends in terms of sustainable development. frastructures are likely to get progressively worse as pressure from population growth and migration builds.

DYSFUNCTIONAL URBANIZATION CLIMATE CHANGE Africa’s urban population is the fastest growing globally. By 2050, over 1.3 billion Africans will live in urban Much has been written about climate change and its environments. As with population growth, there is di- impact on Africa. It sufces here to briefy summarize versity across the continent in terms of urbanization. the main efects of change that will unfold in the un- North Africa and West Africa are the most urbanizing likely scenario that carbon emissions will and can be regions, whereas East Africa, particularly the Horn of dramatically curbed in the next few decades. Africa, is the most rural. Climate change and protract- Africa’s contribution to global climate change in ed confict will accelerate urbanization. terms of carbon emissions is small, but the continent It is worth noting that in the case of Asia, urban- is disproportionately afected by the impacts of climate ization has largely been driven by people seeking change. Agriculture and rural livelihoods in North and employment and job opportunities in the productive West Africa, in particular, are under increased threat sectors in industrial zones and cities. To this end, ur- as higher temperatures and shifting rainfall take their banization has been the essential motor of econom- toll. Tese regions are already water-stressed. Extreme ic development. In Africa, this is not necessarily the weather patterns, such as fooding and drought, make case, at least not to the same extent. Rather, the main vulnerable populations even more susceptible to hun- thrust of people moving to urban areas has been es- ger, disease, and displacement. Climate change is also a caping rural areas because of destitution and poverty. long-term accelerator of violent resource competition. Tey move from subsistence farming to the informal As ecosystems are in peril and the impacts of cli- economy within the cities. Tis means that poverty is mate change unfold across the continent, African cit- urbanizing. In addition, power, water, transport and ies must prepare for internal migration.2 Communities communications are much more expensive compared that have contributed the least to climate change face to the corresponding prices in Asia, compounding the the harshest consequences. At the end of 2019, two challenges that migrants to African cities face. million people had been displaced across sub-Saharan Much of the urbanization in Africa is unplanned Africa as a result of climate-linked disasters. Tis fgure and unregulated. This has negative effects on urban will rise steadily in the coming years and decades. land tenure, land use and property rights. Over two- thirds of the African urban population live in informal settlements. Some are sheer mega-slums, as is the RESILIENCE OF NEO-PATRIMONIAL POLITICS AND case with Nairobi’s Kibera with over 700,000 peo- SLOW DEMOCRATIZATION ple, or Cape Town’s Khayelitsha with over 447,000. Urbanization rates in Africa are projected to rocket in At present, approximately 45 per cent of some 1.3 bil- the coming decades. Consequently, urban infrastruc- lion Africans live in 22 authoritarian states. Only 10 per ture and services are unable to cope with the demands of the growing populations. Water and sanitation 2 Mbiyozo, A-N. (2020). Migration: a critical climate change resilience strategy, Policy Brief. Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies.

FIIA BRIEFING PAPER MARCH 2021 I 4 Africa's population density

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Map illustrating the population density of Africa. Information missing from Sudan, South-Sudan, Somalia and Morocco. Source: Facebook Connectivity Lab and Center for International Earth Science Information Network - CIESIN - Columbia University. 2016. High Resolution Settlement Layer (HRSL). Source imagery for HRSL © 2016 DigitalGlobe. Accessed 5 March 2021. cent live in democracies. Tere are 15 hybrid democra- suppression regularly, while the space for and freedom cies that have a multiparty system and that go through of action for civil society is constantly under pressure. the motions of elections, but where open debate and Te Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) is media freedoms are often curbed. Te remaining six a tool that measures and monitors governance perfor- states, such as Equatorial Guinea and Eritrea, are out- mance in African countries.4 According to the IIAG, right dictatorships, while Libya is a failed state with overall governance in Africa has progressed slowly in little prospect of recovery.3 the past decade, but as of 2019 the continent registered Tere is, of course, movement from hybrid democ- a decline and progress appears to be coming to a stand- racies to fully-fedged democracies such as Botswana still. Te challenge remains that electoral democracy and Tunisia and vice versa, as is the case with Benin. has not delivered better governance as expected. Some Furthermore, the line between authoritarian and hy- observers are of the opinion that apart from a few ex- brid democracies is often thin, and there is back and ceptions, Africa lacks many of the conditions for the forth movement within these two categories. Te main consolidation of democratic governance.5 Tese include point here is that there has been a slow movement a coherent national identity, rule of law, strong checks towards democracy across the continent. Te prob- and balances, independent governance institutions and lem, however, concerns the quality of democracy. a strong civil society. In other words, the making of a Te incumbents fout electoral procedures and cook Weberian state where institutions matter, and person- the books to stay in power. Opposition groups face alized politics does not, is still a work in progress.

4 See https://mo.ibrahim.foundation/iiag. 3 Ruohomäki, O. (2019). Länsi-Afrikka erottuu edukseen. Ulkopolitiikka, (1), 5 Cheeseman, N. (2015). Democracy in Africa: Successes, Failures and the Strug- 66–69. gle for Political Reform. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

FIIA BRIEFI NG PAPER MARCH 2021 I 5 Jakkie Cilliers takes the view that the resilience Holding regular free and fair elections, electoral re- of neo-patrimonialism is the main obstacle to Afri- form, robust independent electoral monitoring and ca’s democratization process.6 Te term describes a strict adherence to term limits are steps in the right system of politically corrupt patron-client relations direction. While authoritarian tendencies will contin- that dominates African politics, and that exists at the ue to linger, the growing demands for change by civil highest national level down to the community level society and the younger generations, many of whom in small villages. Competition is about personal and are technologically savvy, will inevitably lead to more family beneft and politics is about who governs, not substantive democracy in the long term. Te road is about national policy, economic growth and the bet- fraught with challenges and hurdles, however. terment of the nation at large. Tis form of politics is sometimes referred to as ‘big men’ politics. ‘Big men’ politics is damaging when the electoral competition is PROTRACTED CONFLICT of the winner-takes-all type and there are weak institutions in place that are not able to act as checks Tere is no development without peace and stability. and balances against the abuse of power. Some an- Tis maxim is highly relevant in many parts of Africa, alysts take the argument further by arguing that in particularly in the Sahel and Horn of Africa, where vi- many African countries state actors function as or- olent confict has become entrenched, and has caused ganized criminal entrepreneurs through corruption immense misery and suffering. The prospects for and rent-seeking activities in an entirely legal mar- breaking the vicious circle are bleak. Furthermore, ketplace, duly compromising the nature of the African violent confict not only creates more vulnerabilities state in the process.7 in already stressed-out situations, it also causes inter- Despite the somewhat gloomy picture of the cur- nal displacement, forcing people to fee to the cities rent state of afairs of African governance and politics, and urban areas from the more remote hinterlands Africans are tired of autocrats and ‘big men’. Te Afro- and borderlands, where diferent armed groups hold barometer fndings of recent years show that demand sway. A case in point is the situation in Cabo Delgado in and support for democracy in Africa are growing.8 For northern Mozambique, where a radical Islamist group instance, a recent poll in Africa’s most populous coun- has terrorized the local population since 2017. try, Nigeria, found that 74 per cent of the surveyed Low levels of education, the spread of small arms, population preferred democracy over other forms of unemployment, radical ideologies and geopolitical government. Another Afrobarometer poll of 11 African competition have been some of the structural factors countries found that 79 per cent rejected strongman that have contributed to the prevalence of violent con- rule. People want to have a say in decisions that afect fict. Poor governance and lack of development have their lives, and are in need of accountable leaders and not helped the situation. Many of the current confict transparent institutions. hotspots will remain highly problematic sources of in- Globally speaking, the Fourth Wave of democracy stability for years and decades to come as the structural is thought to have been set in motion after the Arab factors underlying confict remain poorly addressed. Spring. Te global forecast is that in the long run de- With rapid urbanization and population growth mocracy will slowly take hold and increase across the in the cities, the nature of violence and confict will world, albeit with peaks and troughs. Furthermore, gradually change. Increased connectivity and travel democratic backsliding is much more likely among will, for instance, shrink the ungoverned spaces that low-income and lower-middle-income countries than are associated with modern-day African insurgencies. in high-income countries, where robust checks and Concomitantly, large areas in the hinterlands and bor- balances on power are in place. derlands will become permanently beyond the reach Only progress towards substantive democracy and and writ of central governments. the development of strong independent institutions Te mobile phone revolution and increase in the use will undo the resilience of neo-patrimonial politics. of various social media platforms, together with rising levels of literacy and education, boost the ability of op-

6 Cilliers, J. (2020). Africa First! Igniting a Growth Revolution. Cape Town: Jona- position and protest movements to mobilize followers than Ball Publishers. to demand change. In all likelihood, social protest, 7 Scheye, E. and Pelser, E. (2020). Why Africa’s Development Models Must Change: Understanding Five Dynamic Trends, Policy Brief. Pretoria: Institute demonstrations, riots and urban discord will become for Security Studies. 8 See https://afrobarometer.org/online-data-analysis. more prevalent in the coming decades. Conficts over

FIIA BRIEFING PAPER MARCH 2021 I 6 urban tenure, land and property rights will increase. 1.3 billion people across Africa, with a combined gross With large unemployed and youthful populations, the domestic product of USD 3.4 trillion.9 It is expected dysfunctional megacities of Africa will become hotbeds to boost trade between and among the African coun- of violence. Ungoverned and unserviced urban dys- tries, promote industrialization, create jobs and im- topias will join ungoverned hinterlands. People mi- prove the competitiveness of local industries on the grating to cities as ‘climate refugees’ will compound global stage. Nevertheless, transport infrastructure – already difcult situations. State fragility will remain including roads, railways, sea transport and aviation a major hurdle for the sustainability of any positive de- – needs huge investments and maintenance in order velopments that might otherwise take root. for real regional integration and economic growth to be realized. It will take decades before the AfCFTA will be any- ATTEMPTS AT CONNECTIVITY AND UNLOCKING where near as efcient as other regional arrangements TRADE POTENTIAL in the developing world, such as that of ASEAN (Asso- ciation of South-east Asian Nations) for instance.10 Real Te levels of connectivity in Africa vary immensely. integration needs legal and regulatory frameworks in Megacities such as Lagos, Nairobi and Johannesburg place combined with robust and independent insti- are well connected to regional and global flows and tutions that deliver. Given the current state of afairs networks of goods, people, services, capital and infor- vis-à-vis governance in Africa, this will take a very mation, whereas connectivity in much of sub-Saharan long time to come to fruition. If successful, the AfCFTA Africa is low. Greater connectivity is a basic prerequi- will be a key factor in Africa’s gradual economic self- site for the continent to meet the rapidly rising needs reliance. In one sense, the AfCFTA is very much about of the growing population. the continent’s second phase of independence follow- A reliable energy supply is perhaps one of the most ing political independence in the 1950s and 1960s. critical needs. According to the United Nations Envi- Peace and stability are basic prerequisites for any ronment Programme, it will take sub-Saharan Africa concrete infrastructure projects to proceed, and for until 2080 for its entire population to have universal countries and regions to connect. Nevertheless, the access to energy. Tis means major investments in en- trajectory of regional integration within the African ergy infrastructure. Nevertheless, the continent has continent is the right one and has the potential to lift great potential for harnessing hydroelectric, geother- tens of millions of people out of poverty. mal, solar and wind as sources of renewable energy. There are examples of rapidly developing connectivity in Africa. For instance, mobile coverage in A NEW SCRAMBLE FOR AFRICA sub-Saharan Africa is increasing, with 70 per cent of the population currently having access, while the Tere is a new scramble for Africa. Te reasons behind fgure for mobile internet penetration is 24 per cent. this are increasing demands for the vast natural re- Tere are at present some 272 million mobile internet sources of the continent, the growing African consum- users in sub-Saharan Africa. Tis fgure is expected to er market, and geopolitical competition. Some players rise to 475 million by 2025. However, low literacy and such as Saudi Arabia and China are leasing land on the digital skills coupled with afordability still pose bar- continent to ensure their food supplies. External pow- riers to digital connectivity, particularly in rural areas. ers vie for the votes of African states in global govern- As the example of expanding mobile coverage ance structures. Others seek local alliances to hedge shows, leapfrogging in some felds and sectors is possi- against their competitors. ble. Decentralized mini- and of-grid energy solutions, Te ties that bind Africa and the European Union ICT and digitization are other examples where the con- are broad and deep as a result of history, proximity tinent can potentially leapfrog in terms of development and shared interests. Cooperation ranges from securi- and growth. Services such as mobile banking are rap- ty, migration and mobility to aid, trade and cultural af- idly expanding across Africa. fairs. Te EU has been and remains, for the time being, In 2018, the African Union embarked on an ambi- the most important partner for most African countries. tious plan to enhance and foster intra-African trade. 9 See https://au.int/en/cfta. Te AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade Area) is 10 Gaens, B. and Ruohomäki, O. (2018). Regionalism à la ASEAN: Past achieve- estimated to be as large as the current population of ments and current challenges. FIIA Briefng Paper 237.

FIIA BRIEFI NG PAPER MARCH 2021 I 7 Tere is growing interest in Africa within the EU. Tis models for development that they can turn to. African is exemplifed by the EU’s strategy with Africa that was leaders and governments can attract investments in a unveiled on 9 March 2020, and the subsequent Council competitive environment and diversify their partners conclusions on Africa.11 In a similar vein, Finland has to reduce economic and political dependency.12 If they completed a strategy for Africa. Te US also continues play their cards wisely, African leaders and governments to be a major actor, particularly in the security feld, can claim back the agency that was stripped from them with multiple military bases across the continent. in the colonization process, and in recent decades where However, new players have taken to the stage and are the global North has dictated the terms of engagement changing the ways in which Africa interacts with the with Africa. For the EU, this means that it will become outside world. Tey bring with them development and just another player among the plethora of actors vying growth models that serve as an alternative to the Euro- for Africa’s attention and resources. pean and American models, which espouse democratic governance and market liberalism. China’s footprint has expanded enormously in re- UNEVEN DEVELOPMENTS, GLIMMERS OF HOPE, cent years. Although the main focus of China’s Belt and WISE CHOICES NEEDED Road Initiative is on connecting China to its immediate neighbourhood in Asia, Africa is benefting particularly Te main argument of this Briefng Paper has been that from major infrastructure projects, such as seaports, the sustainability of positive developments in Africa is roads and railways. China’s authoritarian governance somewhat tenuous and uneven. Tere are both pros- model coupled with state capitalism attracts some pects for peace and prosperity as well as instability African leaders. Turkey and Persian Gulf monarchies and insecurity across the vast and diverse continent. are extending their infuence and strategic footprint, Some parts of the continent will gradually develop and particularly in the Red Sea region and the Horn of Af- catch up with competitors in the rest of the developing rica. For instance, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, world, while other parts will be caught up in a vicious Saudi Arabia and Turkey have established numerous circle of violence and underdevelopment. Structural seaports, logistics hubs and military bases along the factors that hinder development need to be tackled shores of the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. head-on. Nevertheless, the young population wants India’s ties with African states have increased to have a say in the direction that the future takes, and steadily in the economic, politico-strategic, educa- this may afect the course of the continent’s develop- tional and cultural spheres. India is projected to be- ments. Tere are possibilities for leapfrogging in some come a dominant player, particularly in eastern and felds, as exemplifed by digital connectivity. southern Africa and not least because some three Above all, Africa needs to harness the vast natural million people of Indian origin live on the continent. resources and its growing urbanizing population in Russia is an important defence partner for Africa order for the continent to develop. At the same time, and the major supplier of arms to the region. It also it needs to regain and exert a strong sense of agency, has economic motives for involvement in the conti- choose its partners wisely and strategically, and avoid nent, as it has a shortage of certain minerals such as becoming a playing feld for geopolitical rivalries. On manganese, bauxite, and chromium, all of which are both domestic and foreign policy fronts, much de- important for industry. Cooperation in the field of pends on the quality and leadership of African leaders. nuclear energy is another facet of Russia’s involve- Visionary, Nelson Mandela-like African leaders would ment. Nonetheless, Russia’s clout in Africa is and will be sorely needed on this perilous journey towards the remain tied to a handful of client states with limited future. While climate change and its efects on Africa strategic signifcance. is a mega-level trend that is to a large extent beyond In all likelihood, the scramble for Africa will intensify the control of the African continent, all of the other in the coming decades. Africans will become more cog- megatrends and their direction are very much afected nizant of the fact that they have alternative partners and by political choices. I

11 European Commission (2020). Joint Communication to the European Parlia- ment and the Council: Towards a Comprehensive Strategy with Africa, 9 March; 12 Soule, F. (2020). ‘Africa+1’ summit diplomacy and the ‘new scramble’ narrative: Council of the European Union (2020). Council conclusions on Africa, 30 June. Recentering African agency. African afairs, 119/77, 633–646.

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