Africa's Urbanization

WORKING PAPER NO. 7

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities

Maria E. Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipziger

ȱ WORKINGȱPAPERȱNO.ȱ7

Africa’sȱUrbanization:ȱ Challengesȱandȱ Opportunitiesȱ

MariaȱE.ȱFreire,ȱSomikȱLall,ȱȱ andȱDannyȱLeipzigerȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ©ȱ2014ȱTheȱGrowthȱDialogueȱ 2201ȱGȱStreetȱNWȱ Washington,ȱDCȱ20052ȱ Telephone:ȱ(202)ȱ994Ȭ8122ȱ Internet:ȱwww.growthdialogue.orgȱ EȬmail:ȱȱ[email protected]ȱ ȱ Allȱrightsȱreservedȱ ȱ 1ȱ2ȱ3ȱ4ȱ 15ȱ14ȱ13ȱ12ȱȱ ȱ TheȱGrowthȱDialogueȱisȱsponsoredȱbyȱtheȱfollowingȱorganizations:ȱȱ ȱ GovernmentȱofȱCanadaȱ UKȱDepartmentȱforȱInternationalȱDevelopmentȱ(DFID)ȱ KoreaȱDevelopmentȱInstituteȱ(KDI)ȱ GovernmentȱofȱSwedenȱ ȱ Theȱfindings,ȱinterpretations,ȱandȱconclusionsȱexpressedȱhereinȱdoȱnotȱ necessarilyȱreflectȱtheȱviewsȱofȱtheȱsponsoringȱorganizationsȱorȱtheȱ governmentsȱtheyȱrepresent.ȱ ȱ Theȱsponsoringȱorganizationsȱdoȱnotȱguaranteeȱtheȱaccuracyȱofȱtheȱdataȱ includedȱinȱthisȱwork.ȱTheȱboundaries,ȱcolors,ȱdenominations,ȱandȱotherȱ informationȱshownȱonȱanyȱmapȱinȱthisȱworkȱdoȱnotȱimplyȱanyȱjudgmentȱ onȱtheȱpartȱofȱtheȱsponsoringȱorganizationsȱconcerningȱtheȱlegalȱstatusȱofȱ anyȱterritoryȱorȱtheȱendorsementȱorȱacceptanceȱofȱsuchȱboundaries.ȱ ȱ Allȱqueriesȱonȱrightsȱandȱlicenses,ȱincludingȱsubsidiaryȱrights,ȱshouldȱbeȱ addressedȱtoȱTheȱGrowthȱDialogue, ȱ2201ȱGȱStreetȱNW,ȱWashington,ȱDCȱ 20052ȱUSA;ȱphone:ȱ(202)ȱ994Ȭ8122;ȱeȬmail:ȱ[email protected];ȱȱ fax:ȱ(202)ȱ994Ȭ8289.ȱ ȱ ȱ Coverȱdesign:ȱMichaelȱAlwanȱ Contentsȱ

AboutȱtheȱAuthorsȱ...... ȱv Abstractȱ...... ȱvii Acknowledgmentsȱ...... ȱix TheȱMainȱIdeaȱ...... ȱ1 Africa’sȱUrbanȱExpansionȱ...... ȱ4 AlternativeȱAnalyticalȱFrameworks:ȱIsȱUrbanizationȱDifferentȱinȱ Africa?ȱ...... ȱ9 DensityȱwithoutȱCongestion:ȱAreȱThereȱSolutionsȱThatȱAreȱFeasibleȱ andȱAffordable?ȱ...... ȱ11 ObservationsȱforȱtheȱFuture:ȱAsȱAfricaȱUrbanizesȱ...... ȱ21 Referencesȱ...... ȱ27 ȱ ȱ ȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities iii ȱ ȱ ȱ AboutȱtheȱAuthorsȱ

Dr.ȱMariaȱEmiliaȱFreireȱisȱaȱSeniorȱAdvisorȱatȱtheȱGrowthȱDialogueȱandȱ formerȱSeniorȱAdvisorȱatȱtheȱWorldȱBank.ȱȱ ȱ Dr.ȱ Somikȱ Lallȱ isȱ aȱ Leadȱ Economistȱ forȱ Urbanȱ Developmentȱ inȱ theȱ WorldȱBank’sȱUrbanȱandȱDisasterȱRiskȱManagementȱDepartment.ȱȱ ȱ Dr.ȱDannyȱLeipzigerȱisȱtheȱManagingȱDirectorȱofȱtheȱGrowthȱ Dialogueȱ andȱ Professorȱ ofȱ Internationalȱ Businessȱ atȱ theȱ Georgeȱ Washingtonȱ UniversityȱSchoolȱofȱBusinessȱinȱWashington,ȱDC.ȱȱ ȱ ȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities v ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Abstractȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities vii ȱ ȱ

ȱ Acknowledgmentsȱ

TheȱauthorsȱwouldȱlikeȱtoȱacknowledgeȱtheȱcommentsȱofȱDr.ȱMaryvonneȱ PlessisȬFraissardȱandȱProfessorȱDanielȱHoornwegȱonȱanȱearlierȱversionȱofȱ thisȱ paper.ȱ Researchȱ supportȱ fromȱ theȱ Instituteȱ forȱ Internationalȱ EconomicȱPolicyȱ(IIEP)ȱisȱgratefullyȱacknowledged.ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities ix ȱ ȱ ȱ

ȱ Africa’sȱUrbanization:ȱȱ ChallengesȱandȱOpportunities1ȱ

MariaȱE.ȱFreire,ȱSomikȱLall,ȱandȱDannyȱLeipzigerȱ

TheȱMainȱIdeaȱ

Africaȱisȱurbanizingȱfast.ȱItsȱrateȱofȱurbanizationȱsoaredȱfromȱ15ȱpercentȱ inȱ1960ȱtoȱ40ȱpercentȱinȱ2010,ȱandȱisȱprojectedȱtoȱreachȱ60ȱpercentȱinȱ2050ȱ (UNȱHabitatȱ2010).ȱUrbanȱpopulationsȱinȱAfricaȱareȱexpectedȱtoȱtripleȱinȱ theȱ nextȱ 50ȱ years,ȱ changingȱ theȱ profileȱ ofȱ theȱ region,ȱ andȱ challengingȱ policyȱ makersȱ toȱ harnessȱ urbanizationȱ forȱ sustainableȱ andȱ inclusiveȱ growth.ȱ Althoughȱ manyȱ haveȱ writtenȱ aboutȱ theȱ phenomena,ȱ whatȱ isȱ clearȱtoȱusȱisȱthatȱisȱimpossibleȱtoȱdealȱwithȱAfrica’sȱgrowthȱandȱpovertyȱ challengesȱ withoutȱ managingȱ urbanization.ȱ Urbanizationȱ isȱ notȱ aȱ subȬ plot,ȱbutȱratherȱtheȱmainȱpolicyȱnarrativeȱ forȱAfrica.ȱȱ Africa’sȱ urbanȱ growthȱ isȱ inȱ lineȱ withȱ theȱ trendsȱ observedȱ inȱ mostȱ emergingȱ andȱ developedȱ countries.ȱ Inȱ theȱ lastȱ 10ȱ years,ȱ theȱ region’sȱ economiesȱ grewȱ rapidly—aboveȱ 5ȱ percentȱ aȱ yearȱ (IMFȱ 2012)—andȱ theȱ outlookȱ forȱ theȱ nearȱ termȱ isȱ largelyȱ positive.ȱ Findingsȱ fromȱ economicȱ geographyȱ tellȱ usȱ thatȱ densityȱ isȱ neededȱ forȱ economicȱ prosperityȱ andȱ thatȱ urbanȱ growthȱ isȱ aȱ necessaryȱ conditionȱ forȱ acceleratedȱ growthȱ andȱ sharedȱ prosperityȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2008;ȱ Hendersonȱ 2005,ȱ 2010;ȱ Venablesȱ 2010).ȱLongȬrunȱgrowthȱneedsȱanȱefficientȱsystemȱofȱurbanȱcentersȱthatȱ produceȱ industrialȱ goodsȱ andȱ highȬvalueȱ services,ȱ alongȱ withȱ transportationȱ networksȱ toȱ linkȱ nationalȱ economiesȱ withȱ regionalȱ andȱ globalȱmarketsȱ(Spenceȱetȱal.ȱ2009;ȱWorldȱBankȱ2009).ȱȱ Alongȱ theȱ broadȱ spectrumȱ ofȱ developmentȱ patterns,ȱ Africaȱ urbanizationȱpresentsȱsomeȱpeculiarities.ȱWhileȱtheȱheterogeneityȱofȱtheȱ regionȱ precludesȱ easyȱ generalizations,ȱ oneȱ canȱ takeȱ noteȱ ofȱ someȱ

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 1ȱThisȱworkingȱpaperȱhasȱbeenȱacceptedȱforȱpublicationȱinȱJ.ȱY.ȱLinȱandȱC.ȱMonga,ȱeds,ȱTheȱ Oxfordȱ Handbookȱ ofȱ Africaȱ andȱ Economics,ȱ Volumeȱ 1:ȱ Contextȱ andȱ Concepts,ȱ Newȱ York,ȱOxfordȱUniversityȱPressȱ(forthcoming,ȱ2015).ȱAllȱfutureȱrightsȱreserved.ȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities 1 ȱ singularȱ characteristics.ȱ Althoughȱ Africaȱ andȱ Asiaȱ haveȱ similarȱ urbanȱ ratesȱ(aroundȱ40ȱpercent),ȱperȱcapitaȱGDPȱinȱAfricaȱwasȱoneȱthirdȱthatȱofȱ Asianȱ countriesȱ inȱ 2012.ȱ Inȱ addition,ȱ Africa’sȱ literacyȱ ratesȱ andȱ institutionalȱ developmentȱ indicesȱ areȱ muchȱ lowerȱ thanȱ Asianȱ counterparts,ȱandȱAfrica’sȱinfrastructureȱlagsȱbehind.ȱȱ Recentȱpopulationȱcensusesȱareȱ providingȱmoreȱaccurateȱdataȱthanȱ hasȱbeenȱavailableȱinȱtheȱpast.ȱAmongȱotherȱissues,ȱthisȱnewȱinformationȱ willȱ shedȱ lightȱ onȱ suchȱ questionsȱ asȱ (a)ȱ theȱ sizeȱ andȱ sourceȱ ofȱ urbanȱ growthȱ acrossȱ Africanȱ countriesȱ (Pottsȱ 2012;ȱ Gollinȱ etȱ al.ȱ 2013);ȱ (b)ȱ theȱ roleȱ ofȱ ruralȱ migrationȱ versusȱ naturalȱ growthȱ inn ȱ urba ȱ expansionȱ (Foxȱ 2012);ȱ andȱ (c)ȱ theȱ usefulnessȱ ofȱ growthȱ modelsȱ inȱ explainingȱ theȱ longȬ termȱ patternȱ ofȱ urbanization.ȱ Theȱ typicalȱ modelsȱ ofȱ structuralȱ transformationȱexplainȱurbanȱexpansionȱthroughȱtheȱmovementȱofȱlaborȱ fromȱruralȱtoȱurbanȱareasȱthatȱfollowȱtheȱtransformationȱfromȱagricultureȱ toȱ industryȱ andȱ services.ȱ Urbanizationȱ wouldȱ beȱ aȱ resultȱ ofȱ eitherȱ aȱ “push”ȱfromȱagriculturalȱproductivityȱgrowthȱorȱaȱ“pull”ȱfromȱindustrialȱ productivityȱ growthȱ leadingȱ toȱ “productionȱ cities,”ȱ withȱ aȱ mixȱ ofȱ workersȱinȱtradableȱandȱnonȬtradableȱsectors.ȱȱ However,ȱthisȱmodelȱofȱdevelopmentȱdoesȱnotȱseemȱtoȱexplainȱtheȱ urbanizationȱ patternȱ ofȱ moreȱ thanȱ aȱ dozenȱ Africanȱ countries—thoseȱ whoseȱ economicȱ growthȱ hasȱ beenȱ associatedȱ withȱ naturalȱ resourceȱ exploitationȱ butȱ notȱ withȱ increasedȱ manufacturingȱ sharesȱ ofȱ GDPȱ (Collierȱ2009;ȱGollinȱetȱal.ȱ2013).ȱInȱtheseȱcountries,ȱurbanizationȱisȱlikelyȱ toȱ haveȱ beenȱ drivenȱ byȱ theȱ incomeȱ effectȱ ofȱ naturalȱ resourceȱ endowments.ȱ Assumingȱ thatȱ tradableȱ goodsȱ areȱ more ȱ likelyȱ associatedȱ withȱ increasesȱ inȱ productivityȱ thanȱ nonȬtradableȱ goods,ȱ theȱ lackȱ ofȱ manufacturingȱ developmentȱ couldȱ hinderȱ longȬrunȱ economicȱ potentialȱ forȱAfricanȱcities.ȱThisȱargumentȱmeritsȱfurtherȱempiricalȱresearch.ȱȱ Understandingȱ Africanȱ urbanizationȱ isȱ highlyȱ relevantȱ inȱ otherȱ domainsȱ asȱ well.ȱ Extremeȱ povertyȱ continuesȱ toȱ beȱ moreȱ prominentȱ inȱ ruralȱ thanȱ inȱ urbanȱ areasȱ (atȱ leastȱ threeȱ timesȱ higher).ȱ Therefore,ȱ urbanizationȱwouldȱseemȱtoȱbeȱaȱsuperiorȱwayȱtoȱprovideȱbetterȱservicesȱ andȱ livelihoodsȱ toȱ millions,ȱ asȱ wellȱ illustratedȱ inȱ theȱ caseȱ ofȱ Chinaȱ (Taylorȱ 2008).ȱ Oneȱ mayȱ expectȱ thatȱ overȱ time,ȱ theȱ gapȱ betweenȱ urbanȱ andȱ ruralȱ earningsȱ willȱ declineȱ andȱ eventuallyȱ disappear,ȱ asȱ surplusȱ laborȱ shrinksȱ andȱ theȱ ruralȱ sectorȱ modernizes.ȱ Butȱ itȱ beȱ quiteȱ aȱ whileȱ

2 Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ untilȱthisȱoccurs.2ȱAsȱpartȱofȱtheȱprocess,ȱoneȱmightȱstressȱtheȱimportanceȱ ofȱ governmentsȱ providingȱ basicȱ servicesȱ toȱ smallerȱ citiesȱ andȱ intermediateȱ townsȱ thatȱ canȱ facilitateȱ theȱ transitionȱ betweenȱ ruralȱ andȱ nonȬruralȱ activitiesȱ (Ferreȱ etȱ al.ȱ 2010),ȱ theȱ mobilityȱ ofȱ labor,ȱ andȱ theȱ generationȱofȱeconomicȱactivity.ȱȱ Asȱinȱmostȱdevelopingȱcountries,ȱurbanizingȱAfricaȱwillȱfaceȱseriousȱ challenges,ȱ especiallyȱ asȱ policyȱ structuresȱ adjustȱ slowlyȱ (Hendersonȱ 2005).ȱ Atȱ theȱ nationalȱ level,ȱ integrationȱ ofȱ capitalȱ marketsȱ oftenȱ occursȱ moreȱ slowlyȱ thanȱ laborȱ marketȱ integration,ȱ whichȱ isȱ facilitatedȱ byȱ migration.ȱ Investmentȱ inȱ infrastructureȱ isȱ woefullyȱ inadequate,ȱ institutionalȱ developmentȱ lags,ȱ andȱ theȱ fiscalȱ baseȱ isȱ weakenedȱ byȱ centralizedȱ processes.ȱ Urbanȱ managementȱ andȱ planningȱ needsȱ toȱ beȱ strengthenedȱtoȱhelpȱcitiesȱplanȱaheadȱandȱavoidȱcongestion,ȱpollution,ȱ andȱtheȱemergenceȱofȱurbanȱslums;ȱbutȱtheȱtrackȱrecordȱofȱmostȱAfricanȱ countriesȱinȱthisȱarenaȱisȱpoorȱsoȱfar.ȱForȱthisȱreason,ȱtheȱissueȱofȱurbanȱ managementȱisȱatȱtheȱcoreȱofȱtheȱcontinent’sȱdevelopmentȱchallenge.ȱ Thisȱ paperȱ addressesȱ theȱ questionȱ ofȱ whatȱ isȱ requiredȱ toȱ makeȱ Africanȱ citiesȱ efficient,ȱ sustainable,ȱ andȱ inclusive.ȱ Weȱ willȱ beȱ usingȱ economicȱ geographyȱ asȱ anȱ organizingȱ frameworkȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2008;ȱ Henderson,ȱ 2005;ȱ Venablesȱ 2010)ȱ forȱ policyȱ recommendationsȱ thatȱ supportȱ agglomerationȱ benefitsȱ whileȱ managing ȱ congestionȱ costs.ȱ Theȱ paperȱ isȱ organizedȱ inȱ fiveȱ sections.ȱ Theȱ firstȱ sharesȱ keyȱ elementsȱ onȱ Africanȱ urbanization.ȱ Theȱ secondȱ sectionȱ reviewsȱ recentȱ literatureȱ onȱ urbanȱ growthȱ modelsȱ andȱ howȱ theseȱ modelsȱ applyȱ toȱ Africa’sȱ urbanizationȱprocess.ȱTheȱthirdȱandȱfourthȱsectionsȱdiscussȱwhatȱitȱwillȱ takeȱtoȱencourageȱefficientȱandȱinclusiveȱAfricanȱcities,ȱwhileȱtakingȱintoȱ accountȱ theȱ diversityȱ ofȱ countriesȱ andȱ theȱ geographicalȱ andȱ socialȱ divisionȱ ofȱ theȱ continent.ȱ Sectionȱ fiveȱ closesȱ withȱ keyȱ conclusionsȱ andȱ observationsȱforȱtheȱfuture.ȱȱ

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 2ȱForȱexample,ȱinȱtheȱRepublicȱofȱKorea,ȱtheȱurbanȬruralȱwageȱgapȱwasȱeliminatedȱbyȱ1994;ȱ andȱinȱSriȱLankaȱtheȱratioȱwasȱunderȱ1.4ȱbyȱ1995.ȱByȱcomparison,ȱAfricaȱstandsȱfarȱafieldȱinȱ termsȱofȱwageȱdisparities.ȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities 3 ȱ

Africa’sȱUrbanȱExpansionȱȱ

Inȱ mostȱ partsȱ ofȱ theȱ world,ȱ urbanizationȱ hasȱ beenȱ accompaniedȱ byȱ industrializationȱ andȱ economicȱ development,ȱ asȱ increasesȱ inȱ productivityȱ inȱ manufacturingȱ andȱ servicesȱ benefitedȱ fromȱ proximityȱ andȱ concentrationȱ ofȱ activitiesȱ andȱ inputs.ȱ Inȱ Africa,ȱ dataȱ forȱ 2011ȱ confirmȱtheȱrelationȱbetweenȱperȱcapitaȱincomeȱandȱurbanizationȱlevelsȱ (seeȱfigureȱ1).ȱHowever,ȱAfrica’sȱurbanizationȱisȱoccurringȱatȱlowerȱlevelsȱ ofȱ incomeȱ andȱ withȱ farȱ lessȱ investmentȱ inȱ infrastructure.ȱ Theseȱ trendsȱ suggestȱ seriousȱ problemsȱ inȱ copingȱ withȱ theȱ challengesȱ ofȱ rapidȱ urbanization,ȱnotablyȱaccommodatingȱaȱlargerȱpopulationȱandȱensuringȱ aȱfavorableȱbusinessȱenvironment.ȱȱ Africanȱ urbanizationȱ isȱ characterizedȱ byȱ aȱ numberȱ ofȱ uniqueȱ characteristics,ȱdescribedȱbelow.ȱ ȱ Figureȱ1:ȱIncomeȱandȱUrbanizationȱRate,ȱ2011ȱ

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30

Urbanization rates 20 10 0 567891011 Ln per capita income, 2011 ȱ Source:ȱWorldȱBank 2013c.ȱ

Heterogeneityȱȱ SubȬSaharanȱAfricaȱisȱaȱcollectionȱofȱwidelyȱheterogeneousȱcountriesȱandȱ citiesȱwithȱconsiderableȱdifferentiationȱinȱtheirȱpatternsȱofȱurbanization.ȱ Forȱ example,ȱ thereȱ areȱ 13ȱ countriesȱ withȱ urbanizationȱ levelsȱ aboveȱ 50ȱ percent,ȱ mostlyȱ oilȬproducingȱ countriesȱ andȱ middleȬincomeȱ countries.ȱ

4 Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ Sevenȱcountriesȱhaveȱlevelsȱbelowȱ20ȱpercent;ȱtheseȱincludeȱtheȱlowestȬ incomeȱ countriesȱ suchȱ asȱ Burundi,ȱ Ethiopia,ȱ Niger,ȱ andȱ Uganda.ȱ Withȱ theȱexceptionȱofȱNigeria,ȱallȱcountriesȱwithȱurbanizationȱratesȱaboveȱ50ȱ percentȱhaveȱperȱcapitaȱincomesȱ(inȱ2000ȱU.S.ȱdollars)ȱaboveȱUS$1,300.ȱȱ Africanȱ urbanizationȱ hasȱ happenedȱ quickly,ȱ butȱ withȱ littleȱ changeȱ inȱtheȱeconomicȱstructureȱofȱmostȱofȱitsȱcountries.ȱTheȱaverageȱshareȱofȱ manufacturingȱhasȱactuallyȱdeclinedȱinȱtheȱlastȱ15ȱyearsȱ(figureȱ2),ȱwhileȱ servicesȱ haveȱ remainedȱ atȱ 51ȱ percentȱ ofȱ GDP,ȱ accordingȱ toȱ theȱ Worldȱ Bank’sȱWorldȱDevelopmentȱIndicatorsȱ(WorldȱBankȱ2013c).ȱȱ ȱ Figureȱ2:ȱOutputȱShares,ȱSubȬ SaharanȱAfricaȱandȱEastȱAsiaȱandȱtheȱ Pacificȱ

30 EAP Percent 20 SSA

0 1995 2012 1995 2012 1995 2012 Manufacturing Industry Services ȱ Source:ȱWorldȱBankȱ2013c.ȱ ȱ Africaȱshowsȱmuchȱlowerȱincomeȱlevelsȱthanȱotherȱregions,ȱsuchȱasȱ EastȱAsiaȱorȱSouthȱAsia,ȱatȱsimilarȱstagesȱofȱurbanization.ȱCountriesȱinȱ Eastȱ Asiaȱ andȱ theȱ Pacificȱ (EAP)ȱ surpassedȱ urbanizationȱ ratesȱ ofȱ 50ȱ percentȱinȱ2009ȱwhileȱexhibitingȱanȱaverageȱGDPȱperȱcapitaȱofȱUS$5,300ȱ (inȱ 2005ȱ US$).ȱ Theȱ Middleȱ Eastȱ andȱ Northȱ Africaȱ (MENA)ȱ becameȱ 50ȱ percentȱurbanȱinȱ1981ȱwithȱanȱaverageȱGDPȱperȱcapitaȱofȱUS$3,700,ȱandȱ Latinȱ Americaȱandȱ theȱ Caribbeanȱ(LAC)ȱcrossedȱtheȱsameȱthresholdȱinȱ 1961ȱatȱGDPȱperȱcapitaȱofȱUS$2,300ȱ(seeȱfigureȱ3).ȱSubȬSaharanȱAfricaȱisȱ currentlyȱ37ȱpercentȱurbanȱwithȱanȱaverageȱGDPȱperȱcapitaȱofȱUS$992.ȱ Comparedȱ withȱ otherȱ developingȱ regions,ȱ theȱ continentȱ isȱ urbanizingȱ whileȱpoorer.ȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities 5 ȱ

ȱ Figureȱ3:ȱUrbanizationȱandȱperȱCapitaȱGDPȱacrossȱRegionsȱ

ȱ Source:ȱWorldȱBankȱ2013c.ȱ ȱ Rapidȱurbanȱgrowthȱatȱearlyȱstagesȱofȱdevelopmentȱhasȱmeantȱthatȱ peopleȱ haveȱ beenȱ concentratingȱ inȱ urbanȱ areasȱ withoutȱ theȱ accompanyingȱ investmentȱ inȱ physicalȱ structuresȱ andȱ humanȱ capitalȱ neededȱ toȱ reapȱ theȱ expectedȱ economicȱ benefitsȱ ofȱ agglomeration;ȱ andȱ governmentsȱ haveȱ beenȱ lessȱ ableȱ toȱ manageȱ negativeȱ externalities.ȱ Inȱ fact,ȱ averageȱ populationȱ densitiesȱ ofȱ citiesȱ inȱ SubȬSaharanȱ Africaȱ areȱ estimatedȱ toȱ beȱ approximatelyȱ 20,861peopleȱ perȱ squareȱ mile,ȱ whichȱ isȱ comparableȱtoȱdensitiesȱinȱEAPȱ(19,223ȱpeopleȱperȱsquareȱmile)ȱandȱLACȱ (18,190ȱ peopleȱ perȱ squareȱ mile)ȱ cities,ȱ andȱ moreȱ thanȱ fourȱ timesȱ theȱ OECDȱaverageȱ(4,882ȱpeopleȱperȱsquareȱmile).3ȱTheȱnetȱresult,ȱasȱseenȱinȱ figureȱ 4,ȱ isȱ thatȱ Africaȱ hasȱ notȱ seenȱ theȱ majorȱ declineȱ inȱ povertyȱ experiencedȱ inȱ Eastȱ Asia,ȱ forȱ example,ȱ inȱ theȱ courseȱ ofȱ theȱ lastȱ twoȱ decades.ȱTheȱkeyȱvariableȱinȱexplainingȱthisȱisȱtheȱrelativeȱlowȱlevelȱofȱ capitalȱinvestmentȱduringȱtheȱrapidȱurbanizationȱperiod.ȱȱ ȱ

ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 3ȱDataȱfromȱDemographia:ȱhttp://www.demographia.com/.ȱ

6 Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ Figureȱ4:ȱComparingȱSubȬSaharanȱAfricaȱandȱEastȱAsiaȱandȱtheȱPacificȱ 60 East Asia and the Pacific 50 Sub-Saharan Africa

30 Percent 20

0 1995 2012 1995 2012 1995 2012 1990 2010

Manufacturing Investment Urban share as Poverty, % below as % GDP as % GDP % of population poverty line ȱ Source:ȱDemographia:ȱhttp://www.demographia.com/.ȱ ȱ Capitalȱ investmentȱ inȱ Africaȱ hasȱ remainedȱ aroundȱ 20ȱ percentȱ ofȱ GDPȱ forȱ theȱ pastȱ 40ȱ years.ȱ Inȱ contrast,ȱ Eastȱ Asianȱ countriesȱ suchȱ asȱ China,ȱ Japan,ȱ andȱ theȱ Republicȱ ofȱ Koreaȱ steppedȱ upȱ infrastructureȱ investmentȱ duringȱ periodsȱ ofȱ rapidȱ urbanization.ȱ Inȱ China,ȱ capitalȱ investmentȱ (includingȱ infrastructure,ȱ housing,ȱ andȱ officeȱ buildings)ȱ increasedȱ fromȱ 35ȱ percentȱ ofȱ GDPȱ inȱ 1980ȱ toȱ 48ȱ percentȱ inȱ 2011,ȱ accompanyingȱaȱrapidȱincreaseȱinȱurbanȱpopulationȱfromȱ18ȱpercentȱinȱ 1978ȱ toȱ 52ȱ percentȱ inȱ 2012.ȱ Forȱ theȱ regionȱ asȱ aȱ whole,ȱ Eastȱ Asiaȱ investmentȱ remainsȱ aboveȱ 40ȱ percentȱ ofȱ GDPȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2013a).ȱ Povertyȱ reductionȱ isȱ probablyȱ theȱ mostȱ visibleȱ accomplishment.ȱ Whileȱ theȱpercentageȱofȱpeopleȱlivingȱunderȱUS$1.25ȱperȱdayȱdeclinedȱfromȱ58ȱ percentȱtoȱaboutȱ12ȱpercentȱinȱEastȱAsia,ȱtheȱshareȱofȱpeopleȱatȱveryȱlowȱ incomeȱlevelsȱremainsȱatȱoverȱ45ȱpercentȱinȱSubȬSaharanȱAfrica.ȱȱ Urbanȱ populationsȱ inȱ Africaȱ areȱ concentratedȱ inȱ smallȱ towns,ȱ reflectingȱ earlyȱ stagesȱ ofȱ development.ȱ Basedȱ onȱ theȱ mostȱ recentȱ populationȱ estimates,ȱ thereȱ areȱ moreȱ thanȱ 20ȱ Africanȱ countriesȱ whereȱ moreȱthanȱ70ȱpercentȱofȱtheȱurbanȱpopulationȱlivesȱinȱcitiesȱofȱlessȱthanȱ 500,000ȱ peopleȱ (Simkinsȱ 2013).ȱ Thisȱ isȱ similarȱ toȱ China’sȱ experienceȱ inȱ theȱ1990s,ȱwhenȱitsȱcitiesȱwereȱ(relatively)ȱundersizedȱdueȱtoȱmigrationȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities 7 ȱ restrictions,ȱsubstantiallyȱimpairingȱtheirȱefficiencyȱ(AuȱandȱHendersonȱ 2006).ȱ Migrationȱ restrictionsȱ limitedȱ laborȱ mobilityȱ andȱ agglomeration,ȱ andȱatȱthatȱtimeȱChinaȱhadȱaȱmuchȱlargerȱshareȱofȱitsȱurbanȱpopulationȱ inȱ smallerȱ citiesȱ (betweenȱ 100,000ȱ andȱ 1ȱ million)ȱ thanȱ otherȱ emergingȱ economies.ȱ Theȱ relaxationȱ ofȱ migrationȱ restrictionsȱ hasȱ sinceȱ redrawnȱ China’sȱ demographicȱ map,ȱ promptingȱ aȱ hugeȱ redistributionȱ ofȱ peopleȱ acrossȱ citiesȱ ofȱ differentȱ sizes.ȱ Asȱ largeȱ citiesȱ playȱ aȱ criticalȱ roleȱ inȱ productivityȱ levelsȱ andȱ businessȱ climateȱ (Pugaȱ andȱ Venablesȱ 1996;ȱ HendersonȱandȱVenablesȱ2010),ȱitȱisȱclearȱthatȱAfricaȱisȱmissingȱaȱlargeȱ opportunity.ȱȱ

TooȱFewȱLargeȱCitiesȱȱ Mostȱcitiesȱ inȱAfricaȱhaveȱpopulationsȱtooȱsmallȱtoȱproperlyȱexploitȱtheȱ scaleȱ benefitsȱ ofȱ clusteringȱ localȱ economicȱ activity,ȱ therebyȱ limitingȱ urbanȱ productivityȱ gainsȱ andȱ economicȱ growth.ȱ Relativeȱ toȱ theȱ restȱ ofȱ theȱ world,ȱ Africanȱ countriesȱ distinctlyȱ lackȱ citiesȱ inȱ theȱ rangeȱ ofȱ 1–5ȱ millionȱ inȱ population.ȱ Asȱ Hendersonȱ (2009:ȱ 5)ȱ notes:ȱ “Whileȱ Shanghai,ȱ Beijingȱ andȱ Guangzhou,ȱ forȱ example,ȱ haveȱ evolvedȱ intoȱ megacities,ȱ recentȱresearchȱsuggestsȱthatȱmanyȱprefectureȬlevelȱcitiesȱareȱaboutȱhalfȱ theirȱ efficientȱ size.ȱ Theȱ researchȱ indicatesȱ thatȱ aȱ doublingȱ ofȱ theȱ populationȱinȱsuchȱcitiesȱwouldȱleadȱtoȱaȱ20Ȭ35ȱpercentȱincreaseȱinȱoutputȱ perȱ worker.”ȱ Divisionsȱ betweenȱ countriesȱ inȱ Africaȱ haveȱ ofȱ courseȱ playedȱaȱroleȱinȱthisȱpatternȱofȱurbanization.ȱIfȱAfrica’sȱ50ȱcountriesȱwereȱ 50ȱ statesȱ inȱ oneȱ countryȱ likeȱ theȱ Unitedȱ States,ȱ thenȱ theȱ largestȱ citiesȱ wouldȱbeȱlargeȱenoughȱtoȱsustainȱgreaterȱdiversificationȱandȱincubationȱ ofȱnewȱfirmsȱ(Venablesȱ2010).ȱȱ Thereȱisȱalsoȱevidence ȱtoȱsuggestȱthatȱcityȱprimacyȱinȱSubȬSaharanȱ Africaȱ isȱ lowerȱ thanȱ optimalȱ forȱ manyȱ countries.ȱ Hendersonȱ (2004)ȱ arguesȱthatȱoptimalȱprimacyȱisȱinverselyȱrelatedȱtoȱlandȱarea,ȱpopulation,ȱ andȱincomeȱperȱcapita.ȱDeviationsȱfromȱoptimalȱprimacyȱentailȱcostsȱinȱ termsȱ ofȱ productivityȱ growth.ȱ Basedȱ onȱ estimatesȱ inȱ Hendersonȱ (2003)ȱ andȱ dataȱ forȱ 2010,ȱ theȱ followingȱ countriesȱ haveȱ lessȱ thanȱ 80ȱ percentȱ levelsȱ ofȱ optimalȱ primacy:ȱ Benin,ȱ Chad,ȱ Ethiopia,ȱ Ghana,ȱ Lesotho,ȱ Madagascar,ȱ Malawi,ȱ Morocco,ȱ Mozambique,ȱ Nigeria,ȱ Rwanda,ȱ Sierraȱ Leone,ȱandȱSouthȱAfrica.ȱPoliticalȱfragmentationȱfurtherȱimpingesȱonȱcityȱ sizeȱandȱcanȱhurtȱproductivity.ȱCollierȱandȱVenablesȱ(2007)ȱandȱVenablesȱ (2010)ȱ showtȱȱtha countryȱ areaȱ andȱ populationȱ areȱ highlyȱ significantȱ

8 Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ driversȱofȱcityȱsize.ȱTheyȱfurtherȱshowȱthatȱaȱmergerȱofȱtwoȱsimilarȱsizeȱ countries—thatȱ is,ȱ aȱ doublingȱ ofȱ populationȱ andȱ area—wouldȱ leadȱ toȱ developmentsȱresultingȱinȱaȱ75ȱpercentȱincreaseȱinȱtheȱsizeȱofȱtheȱlargestȱ city.ȱȱ Poorȱ qualityȱ ofȱ dataȱ continuesȱ toȱ hinderȱ theȱ qualityȱ ofȱ analysisȱ ofȱ Africanȱ urbanizationȱandȱdevelopmentȱ(Hendersonȱetȱal.,ȱ2013,ȱSimkinsȱ 2013).ȱ Newȱ populationȱ censusesȱ haveȱ improvedȱ theȱ informationȱ onȱ Africa’sȱ urbanization,ȱ butȱ manyȱ countriesȱ stillȱ haveȱ notȱ hadȱ censusesȱ sinceȱ 2000ȱ andȱ forȱ thoseȱ whoȱ haveȱ hadȱ them,ȱ publicȱ accessȱ isȱ limited.ȱ Thereȱ areȱ alsoȱ problemsȱ ofȱ definitions.ȱ Inȱ theȱ caseȱ ofȱ Nigeria,ȱ whenȱ urbanizationȱ isȱ measuredȱ byȱ densityȱ andȱ distanceȱ betweenȱ dwellings,ȱ theȱresultȱisȱ100ȱmillionȱpeopleȱratherȱthanȱtheȱ140ȱmillionȱmentionedȱinȱ theȱ censusȱ (AFRICAPOLISȱ 2008).ȱ Basedȱ onȱ censusȱ dataȱ andȱ individualȱ cityȱ analysis,ȱ Foxȱ (2012)ȱ andȱ Pottsȱ (2010)ȱ argueȱ thatȱ urbanizationȱ mayȱ haveȱ slowedȱ downȱ inȱ severalȱ countries,ȱ suchȱ asȱ Benin,ȱ Burkinaȱ Faso,ȱ Mauritania,ȱ Mozambique,ȱ Niger,ȱ Senegal,ȱ andȱ Zimbabwe.ȱ Oneȱ explanationȱ ofȱ thisȱ findingȱ inȱ contrastȱ toȱ overallȱ urbanizationȱ ratesȱ reportedȱbyȱtheȱWorldȱBankȱandȱothersȱisȱthatȱprimateȱcitiesȱhaveȱgainedȱ populationsȱ whileȱ secondaryȱ townsȱ andȱ citiesȱ haveȱ not.ȱ Thus,ȱ nationalȱ urbanizationȱpercentagesȱmayȱnotȱexceedȱpopulationȱgrowth;ȱyetȱslumsȱ areȱ growingȱ inȱ theȱ primateȱ cityȱ withȱ higherȱ cityȱ concentrations.ȱ Bothȱ Pottsȱ (2013)ȱ andȱ Gollinȱ etȱ al.ȱ (2013)ȱ argueȱ thatȱ naturalȱ demographicȱ growthȱofȱcitiesȱandȱtownsȱ(dueȱtoȱhighȱfertilityȱrates)ȱratherȱthanȱruralȱ migrationȱ isȱ atȱ theȱ rootȱ ofȱ cityȱ growth.ȱ Pottsȱ (2013)ȱ suggestsȱ thatȱ theȱ contributionȱofȱinȬmigrationȱtoȱurbanȱgrowthȱhasȱfallenȱfromȱ55ȱpercentȱ inȱtheȱearlyȱ1960sȱtoȱaroundȱ30ȱpercentȱfromȱtheȱmidȬ1990sȱonwards.ȱȱ

AlternativeȱAnalyticalȱFrameworks:ȱ IsȱUrbanizationȱDifferentȱinȱAfrica?ȱ

Theȱ typicalȱ analyticalȱ frameworkȱ thatȱ explainsȱ theȱ linkȱ betweenȱ urbanizationȱandȱeconomicȱdevelopmentȱisȱtheȱstructuralȱtransformationȱ model.ȱ Itȱ suggestsȱ thatȱ asȱ growthȱ occurs,ȱ productionȱ shiftsȱ outȱ ofȱ agricultureȱ toȱ manufacturingȱ andȱ servicesȱ andȱ tendsȱ toȱ concentrateȱ inȱ urbanȱ areas,ȱ benefitingȱ fromȱ largeȱ poolsȱ ofȱ laborȱ andȱ capitalȱ andȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities 9 ȱ proximityȱtoȱotherȱfirms.ȱAsȱagricultureȱisȱlandȱintensive,ȱthereȱisȱlimitedȱ scopeȱforȱaȱlargeȱnumberȱofȱpeopleȱtoȱconcentrateȱinȱoneȱsettlement.ȱForȱ manufacturing,ȱ however,ȱ capitalȱ canȱ substituteȱ forȱ landȱ limitations.ȱ Inȱ addition,ȱ scaleȱ andȱ agglomerationȱ economiesȱ increaseȱ efficiencyȱ ofȱ productionȱ andȱ alsoȱ theȱ likelihoodȱ ofȱ spatialȱ concentrationȱ ofȱ industryȱ andȱ services.ȱ Certainlyȱ thisȱ isȱ theȱ basicȱ developmentȱ paradigmȱ originatingȱ withȱ W.ȱ Arthurȱ Lewisȱ (1955)ȱ andȱ reinforcedȱ byȱ theȱ policyȱ empiricsȱ ofȱ theȱ Commissionȱ onȱ Growthȱ andȱ Developmentȱ (2008)ȱ inȱ itsȱ GrowthȱReport.ȱ Aȱ recentȱ bodyȱ ofȱ literatureȱ suggestsȱ thatȱ theȱ aboveȱ linkȱ betweenȱ urbanizationȱ andȱ industrializationȱ mayȱ notȱ beȱ universal,ȱ however.ȱ Urbanizationȱ inȱ Africaȱ (atȱ leastȱ inȱ severalȱ countries)ȱ mayȱ haveȱ beenȱ triggeredȱ byȱ developmentȱ ofȱ naturalȱ resourceȱ exportsȱ ratherȱ thanȱ byȱ improvementsȱ inȱ manufacturingȱ productivity.ȱ Usingȱ aȱ sampleȱ ofȱ 116ȱ countriesȱ forȱ 2010,ȱ Gollinȱ etȱ al.ȱ (2013)ȱ illustrateȱ thatȱ aȱ numberȱ ofȱ countriesȱ areȱ highlyȱ urbanizedȱ withoutȱ havingȱ industrializedȱ much.ȱ Theseȱ areȱ mostlyȱ resourceȬexportingȱ countriesȱ thatȱ haveȱ urbanizedȱ withoutȱincreasingȱoutputȱinȱeitherȱmanufacturingȱorȱindustrialȱservices.ȱ Thisȱ patternȱ isȱ alsoȱ observedȱ byȱ Collierȱ (2006).ȱ Inȱ theȱ moreȱ prevalentȱ developmentȱ paradigm,ȱ urbanizationȱ happensȱ asȱ consequenceȱ ofȱ productivityȱ increasesȱ inȱ manufacturingȱ (enablingȱ higherȱ wagesȱ andȱ attractingȱlaborȱfromȱ theȱruralȱareas);ȱinȱaddition,ȱproductivityȱincreasesȱ inȱ agricultureȱ (agricultureȱrevolution)ȱ freeȱ ruralȱlaborȱ toȱ moveȱ toȱ citiesȱ andȱbeȱemployedȱinȱtradableȱproduction—soȬcalledȱ“productionȱcities.”ȱ Inȱtheȱalternativeȱmodel,ȱcitiesȱinȱcountriesȱderivingȱsubstantialȱincomeȱ fromȱcommoditiesȱandȱnaturalȱresourceȱexportsȱwillȱgrowȱinȱresponseȱtoȱ theȱ consumptionȱ ofnȬȱ no tradablesȱ associatedȱ withȱ thatȱ increaseȱ inȱ disposableȱincome.ȱInȱthisȱcase,ȱresourceȬledȱdevelopmentȱwouldȱleadȱtoȱ theȱ creationȱ ofȱ “consumptionȱ cities”ȱ byȱ increasingȱ theȱ incomeȱ surplusȱ andȱshiftingȱworkersȱawayȱfromȱtheȱtradableȱsector.ȱȱ TheȱlatterȱmodelȱseemsȱtoȱapplyȱtoȱmanyȱAfricaȱcountriesȱ(atȱleastȱ 15ȱ ofȱ them)ȱ (Gollinȱ etȱ al.ȱ 2013).ȱ Theȱ authorsȱ showȱ thatȱ thereȱ isȱ littleȱ evidenceȱofȱaȱgreenȱrevolutionȱinȱSubȬSaharanȱAfrica,ȱasȱfoodȱyieldsȱhaveȱ remainedȱlowȱ(EvensonȱandȱGollinȱ2003);ȱinȱ2010,ȱcerealȱyieldsȱwereȱ2.8ȱ timesȱ lowerȱ thanȱ inȱ Asia.ȱ Concomitantly,ȱ anȱ industrialȱ revolutionȱ inȱ Africaȱisȱnotȱevident.ȱItsȱmanufacturingȱandȱhigherȬvalueȱserviceȱsectorsȱ areȱ relativelyȱ smallȱ (McMillanȱ andȱ Rodrikȱ 2011)ȱ andȱ itsȱ 2010ȱ

10 Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ employmentȱ sharesȱ inȱ industryȱ wereȱ 5ȱ percentȱ ofȱ totalȱ employment— oneȱ thirdȱ ofȱ Asia’sȱ shareȱ ofȱ laborȱ inȱ manufacturing.ȱ Africanȱ laborȱ productivityȱwasȱalsoȱroughlyȱhalfȱthatȱofȱeitherȱindustryȱorȱservicesȱinȱ Asiaȱ(WorldȱBankȱ2013a).ȱAsȱnotedȱbyȱGollinȱetȱal.ȱ(2013):ȱȱ

Despiteȱtheȱlackȱofȱtheȱstandardȱpushȱoutȱofȱagricultureȱorȱpullȱfromȱ industry,ȱAfricaȱhasȱurbanizedȱtoȱtheȱsameȱlevelȱasȱAsiaȱoverȱtheȱlastȱ halfȬcentury.ȱNaturalȱresourcesȱextractiveȱactivitiesȱareȱhighlyȱcapitalȬ intensive,ȱandȱtheirȱproductionȱcreatesȱveryȱlittleȱdirectȱemployment.ȱ Butȱ theȱ rentsȱ generatedȱ provideȱ aȱ differentȱ originȱ forȱ aȱ “pull”ȱ intoȱ urbanȱareasȱasȱtheȱincreasedȱpurchasingȱpowerȱmadeȱavailableȱfromȱ resourcesȱincreasesȱdemandȱforȱurbanȱgoodsȱandȱamenities.ȱ WhetherȱurbanizationȱisȱdifferentȱinȱAfricaȱmayȱnotȱmatterȱasȱmuchȱ asȱ theȱ consequences.ȱ Ifȱ urbanizationȱ isȱ unaccompaniedȱ byȱ formalȱ employmentȱ andȱ broadȬbasedȱ incomeȱ gains,ȱ thenȱ citiesȱ willȱ becomeȱ concentrationsȱ ofȱ relativelyȱ richerȱ peopleȱ purchasingȱ lowȬlevelȱ servicesȱ fromȱ thoseȱ migratingȱ toȱ cities.ȱ Theȱ creationȱ ofȱ slumsȱ willȱ beȱ inevitableȱ andȱ theȱ concentrationȱ ofȱ basicȱ infrastructureȱ servicesȱ toȱ caterȱ toȱ theȱ higherȬincomeȱ partsȱ ofȱ theȱ cityȱ willȱ continueȱ theȱ cycleȱ ofȱ poverty,ȱ whetherȱ inȱ ruralȱ areasȱ orȱ inȱ cities.ȱ Oneȱ canȱ alsoȱ visualizeȱ theȱ developmentȱ ofȱ importantȱ serviceȱ sectorsȱ thatȱ reflectȱ theȱ geographicalȱ andȱ physicalȱ advantagesȱ ofȱ theȱ region.ȱ The ȱ broaderȱ issueȱ ofȱ viableȱ developmentȱ strategiesȱ thenȱ fallsȱ backȱ onȱ governmentȱ toȱ createȱ theȱ conditionsȱ forȱ higherȱ densities,ȱ betterȱ connectivity,ȱ andȱ deliberateȱ andȱ targetedȱ interventionsȱ toȱ makeȱ developmentȱ inclusiveȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2008).ȱȱ

DensityȱwithoutȱCongestion:ȱAreȱThereȱSolutionsȱ ThatȱAreȱFeasibleȱandȱAffordable?ȱȱ

RapidȱurbanizationȱisȱprojectedȱtoȱcontinueȱinȱAfrica,ȱandȱmanyȱprimateȱ citiesȱmayȱdoubleȱorȱtripleȱinȱtheȱnextȱtwoȱdecades.ȱPredictingȱtheȱfutureȱ sizeȱ ofȱ Africanȱ citiesȱ isȱ riskyȱ sinceȱ theȱ spatialȱ transformationsȱ thatȱ accompanyȱdevelopmentȱorȱrespondȱtoȱeconomicȱshocksȱcannotȱeasilyȱbeȱ foreseenȱ (Hendersonȱ 2005).ȱ Moreover,ȱ itȱ isȱ difficultȱ toȱ separateȱ urbanizationȱ policiesȱ fromȱ broaderȱ economicȱ policies,ȱ economicȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities 11 ȱ planning,ȱandȱtheȱroleȱofȱtheȱstate.ȱTrade,ȱinvestment,ȱandȱspecializationȱ resultȱinȱspatialȱtransformations;ȱtheseȱwillȱbeȱsmootherȱifȱlandȱmarketsȱ functionȱ well,ȱ ifȱ localȱ infrastructureȱ isȱ ableȱ toȱ boostȱ competitiveȱ advantage,ȱandȱifȱcitiesȱofferȱtheȱamenitiesȱandȱservicesȱrequiredȱbyȱtheȱ growingȱworkforce.ȱGoodȱurbanȱpoliciesȱareȱrequiredȱ toȱmaintainȱwellȬ functioningȱ citiesȱ (Freireȱ 2013).ȱ Someȱ expertsȱ haveȱ identifiedȱ landȱ policiesȱandȱtaxȱpoliciesȱasȱcriticalȱelements,ȱwhileȱothersȱhaveȱstressedȱ governanceȱ moreȱ generally.ȱ Oneȱ keyȱ variableȱ thatȱ distinguishesȱ successfulȱfromȱunsuccessfulȱcitiesȱisȱtheȱqualityȱofȱinfrastructure.ȱ Thereȱhasȱbeenȱconsiderableȱworkȱonȱtheȱdearthȱofȱinfrastructureȱinȱ SubȬSaharanȱ Africaȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2010)ȱ andȱ itsȱ linkȱ toȱ lowerȱ ratesȱ ofȱ economicȱ growth.ȱ Equallyȱ important,ȱ however,ȱ isȱ theȱ impactȱ ofȱ infrastructureȱinvestmentsȱonȱtheȱgenerationȱofȱoutputȱandȱincomeȱandȱ jobs.ȱ Aȱ simpleȱ pictureȱ ofȱ energyȱ accessȱ andȱ economicȱ activityȱ forȱ Tanzaniaȱ(figureȱ5)ȱshowsȱ theȱ clearȱ relationshipȱ betweenȱ infrastructureȱ andȱtheȱlevelȱofȱeconomicȱactivityȱinȱcities.ȱMostȱTanzanianȱcitiesȱhaveȱ electrificationȱratesȱatȱorȱbelowȱ20ȱpercentȱofȱtheȱpopulation.ȱȱ ȱ Figureȱ5:ȱEnergyȱAccessȱandȱEconomicȱAtivityȱinȱTanzanianȱCitiesȱ

ȱ Source:ȱBasedȱonȱdataȱfromȱNationalȱAccountsȱofȱTanzanianȱMainlandȱandȱPowerȱSystemȱ MasterȱPlanȱ2012ȱUpdate.ȱ

12 Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ Therefore,ȱ itȱ isȱ notȱ surprisingȱ thatȱ perȱ capitaȱ incomeȱ inȱ thoseȱ secondaryȱcitiesȱisȱoneȱquarterȱtoȱoneȱhalfȱofȱincomeȱinȱtheȱcapital.ȱLikeȱ education,ȱ infrastructureȱ isȱ theȱ greatȱ equalizer.ȱ Moreover,ȱ onceȱ connected,ȱtheȱinfrastructureȱcitiesȱcanȱgenerateȱwillȱscaleȱeconomiesȱinȱ waysȱ similarȱ toȱ agglomeratedȱ cities.ȱ Givenȱ theȱ patternȱ describedȱ byȱ CollierȱandȱVenablesȱ(2011)ȱofȱone,ȱundersizedȱprimaryȱcity,ȱAfricaȱmustȱ betterȱconnectȱitsȱsecondaryȱorȱintermediateȬsizedȱcitiesȱ(inȱlineȱwithȱtheȱ establishedȱ evidenceȱ ofȱ theȱ importanceȱ ofȱ connectivityȱ andȱ prosperity)ȱ whileȱ tryingȱ toȱ achieveȱ theȱ largerȱ densitiesȱ requiredȱ forȱ efficiencyȱ inȱ productionȱandȱserviceȱdelivery.ȱȱ Givenȱ the ȱ realitiesȱ ofȱ geography,ȱ connectivityȱ cannotȱ beȱ viewedȱ onlyȱwithinȱnationalȱborders.ȱThisȱhasȱimplicationsȱforȱcitiesȱandȱspatialȱ planning.ȱ Someȱ citiesȱ willȱ beȱ closerȱ toȱ aȱ railȱ linkȱ orȱ aȱ portȱ inȱ aȱ neighboringȱcountry,ȱsoȱtheȱeconomicsȱwillȱrequireȱadditionalȱeffortsȱinȱ theȱ realmȱ ofȱ politicalȱ economy.ȱ Greaterȱ regionalȱ integrationȱ andȱ cooperationȱwillȱbeȱimportantȱforȱsharedȱinfrastructure,ȱsuchȱasȱenergyȱ supply,ȱasȱwellȱasȱforȱoverallȱgrowth.ȱTheȱlackȱofȱsizeȱandȱdensityȱcan,ȱinȱ someȱ respects,ȱ beȱ compensatedȱ forȱ byȱ connectedȱ cities,ȱ andȱ deeperȱ integrationȱ andȱ cooperationȱ canȱ leadȱ toȱ largerȱ economicȱ dividends.ȱ CrossȬborderȱmigrationȱandȱits ȱmanagementȱisȱgettingȱattentionȱinȱmanyȱ ofȱ theȱ Africanȱ agendasȱ andȱ someȱ progressȱ isȱ beingȱ recorded.ȱ Suchȱ integrationȱisȱoccurringȱalongȱtheȱcorridorsȱofȱselectedȱtradeȱroutesȱandȱ couldȱ mirrorȱ theȱ largerȱ megacitiesȱ ofȱ Asiaȱ ifȱ regionalȱ infrastructureȱ obstaclesȱcanȱbeȱovercomeȱ(WorldȱBankȱ2009).ȱȱ Theȱ particularȱ characteristicsȱ ofȱ theȱ Africaȱ regionȱ requireȱ specificȱ urbanizationȱpolicies.ȱDrawingȱfromȱtheȱWorldȱDevelopmentȱReportȱ2009ȱ (WorldȱBankȱ2009),ȱsomeȱpillarsȱareȱessential.ȱFirst,ȱAfricanȱcountriesȱareȱ characterizedȱ byȱ lowȱ populationȱ densitiesȱinȱ smallȱandȱscatteredȱ cities,ȱ whichȱlackȱscaleȱandȱprimacy—although,ȱatȱtheȱcityȱlevel,ȱdensitiesȱareȱ asȱhighȱasȱinȱLatinȱAmericaȱorȱEastȱAsia.ȱTheȱpopulationȱmovementsȱwillȱ beȱ intenseȱ inȱ theȱ nearȱ futureȱ asȱ theȱ regionȱ movesȱ upȱ theȱ urbanizationȱ ladder.ȱ Nationalȱ developmentȱ policyȱ willȱ thereforeȱ needȱ toȱ focusȱ onȱ aȱ portfolioȱofȱplacesȱtoȱimproveȱtheȱsynergiesȱandȱconnectivityȱofȱcities.ȱAsȱ seenȱinȱfigureȱ6,ȱhalfȱofȱtheȱpopulationȱlivesȱinȱtheȱruralȱhinterlandȱandȱ 10ȱpercentȱinȱperiȬurbanȱareas.ȱToȱfacilitateȱmobilityȱandȱefficiencyȱinȱtheȱ densificationȱ process,ȱ landȱ policies,ȱ infrastructureȱ investments,ȱ andȱ marketȬbasedȱenergiesȱwillȱneedȱtoȱfocusȱequallyȱonȱbothȱmegacitiesȱandȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities 13 ȱ intermediateȱ andȱ secondaryȱ cities.ȱ Spatialȱ considerations—suchȱ asȱ connectivityȱtoȱtheȱcapital,ȱaccessȱtoȱports,ȱandȱtheȱavailabilityȱofȱlargerȱ (atȱ timesȱ crossȬborder)ȱ markets—willȱ beȱ keyȱ toȱ success.ȱ Therefore,ȱ governmentsȱwillȱneedȱcustomizedȱdevelopmentȱplansȱbasedȱonȱenergy,ȱ transport,ȱandȱeconomicȱactivity.ȱPeopleȱwillȱmigrateȱtowardȱeconomicȱ opportunitiesȱandȱtheȱprovisionȱofȱbasicȱservices.ȱȱ ȱ Figureȱ6:ȱDistributionȱofȱPopulationȱinȱSubȬSaharanȱAfricaȱ Remote Megacities Rural 13% Secondary Areas cities 16% 11%

Rural Hinterland 50%

Periurban areas 10% ȱ Source:ȱWorldȱBankȱ2010.ȱ ȱ Densification.ȱ Densificationȱ isȱ anȱ importantȱ elementȱ ofȱ efficientȱ urbanizationȱinȱAfrica.ȱTheȱaverageȱpopulationȱdensityȱonȱtheȱcontinentȱ (77ȱpeopleȱperȱsquareȱkilometer)ȱisȱstillȱamongȱtheȱlowestȱinȱtheȱworld.ȱ Theȱ agglomerationȱ indexȱ inȱ theȱ Worldȱ Developmentȱ Reportȱ 2009ȱ givesȱ Africaȱaȱscoreȱofȱ30ȱpercent,ȱcomparedȱwithȱaboutȱ50ȱpercentȱforȱtheȱrestȱ ofȱtheȱworldȱ(WorldȱBankȱ2009).ȱAsȱaȱwhole,ȱurbanȱdensityȱinȱtheȱAfricanȱ continentȱ isȱ quiteȱ flat,ȱ althoughȱ theȱ averageȱ cityȱ densityȱ isȱ aboutȱ theȱ sameȱlevelȱasȱobservedȱinȱEastȱAsiaȱandȱLatinȱAmerica.ȱHowever,ȱrapidȱ expansionȱ ofȱ periȬurbanȱ citiesȱ withoutȱ planningȱ andȱ withoutȱ infrastructureȱ willȱ resultȱ inȱ patchyȱ development.ȱ Thisȱ willȱ increaseȱ theȱ costsȱofȱprovidingȱbasicȱservicesȱandȱwillȱhurtȱconnectivityȱandȱmobilityȱ ofȱlabor.ȱDensityȱmattersȱbecauseȱtheȱconcentrationȱofȱpeopleȱandȱfirmsȱ inȱtownsȱandȱcitiesȱgenerateȱscaleȱandȱagglomerationȱeconomies,ȱbecauseȱ theȱ costsȱ ofȱ providingȱ basicȱ servicesȱ declineȱ rapidlyȱ withȱ density,ȱ andȱ becauseȱ densityȱ canȱ beȱ greener.ȱ Theȱ averageȱ greenhouseȱ gasȱ (GHG)ȱ

14 Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ emissionȱ ofȱ aȱ denseȱ cityȱ isȱ exponentiallyȱ lowerȱ thanȱ aȱ sprawledȱ oneȱ (Hoornwegȱ 2011).ȱ Theȱ challengeȱ inȱ Africaȱ willȱ beȱ toȱ getȱ theȱ “right”ȱ densityȱ thatȱ harnessesȱ marketȱ forcesȱ toȱ encourageȱ concentrationȱ andȱ promoteȱ convergenceȱ inȱ livingȱ standardsȱ betweenȱ villages,ȱ towns,ȱ andȱ cities.ȱForȱinstance,ȱtheȱeconomicȱdensityȱinȱNewȱDelhiȱisȱmoreȱthanȱ60ȱ timesȱ higherȱ thanȱ Accra;ȱ obviouslyȱ oneȱ isȱ overȬsizedȱ andȱ theȱ otherȱ underȬsized.ȱPlannersȱwillȱhaveȱtoȱdealȱwithȱNewȱDelhi’sȱproblemsȱasȱaȱ retrofit,ȱwhereasȱAccra’sȱplannersȱhaveȱtheȱchanceȱtoȱanticipateȱandȱplanȱ (WorldȱBankȱ2013c).ȱ ȱ Expansionȱofȱbasicȱservices.ȱTheȱprovisionȱofȱ infrastructureȱandȱpublicȱ servicesȱ shouldȱ beȱ cheaperȱ andȱ moreȱ efficientȱ inȱ denserȱ areas,ȱ andȱ indeedȱ thisȱ isȱ theȱ case.ȱ However,ȱ theȱ sheerȱ sizeȱ ofȱ newȱ populationsȱ typicallyȱconstitutesȱaȱsubstantialȱburdenȱforȱalreadyȱstretchedȱmunicipalȱ budgets.ȱ Theȱ resultȱ isȱ thatȱ inȱ someȱ casesȱ serviceȱ coverageȱ hasȱ beenȱ declining,ȱ notablyȱ withȱ regardsȱ toȱ waterȱ supply.ȱ Adequateȱ investments—whetherȱ publicȱ orȱ private—inȱ infrastructureȱ andȱservicesȱ willȱbeȱcrucialȱtoȱreapȱtheȱbenefitsȱofȱdensity.ȱFurthermore,ȱinadequateȱ provisionȱ ofȱ basicȱ servicesȱ doesȱ notȱ deterȱ theȱ migrationȱ ofȱ peopleȱ toȱ cities;ȱtheyȱwillȱcomeȱjustȱforȱtheȱchanceȱofȱgettingȱtheseȱservices.ȱ ȱ Infrastructure.ȱ Africanȱ countriesȱ lag ȱ behindȱ theirȱ peersȱ inȱ developingȱ countriesȱinȱinfrastructureȱprovisionȱ(WorldȱBankȱ2010).ȱTheȱdifferencesȱ areȱparticularlyȱlargeȱforȱpavedȱroads,ȱpowerȱgeneration,ȱandȱaccessȱtoȱ potableȱ waterȱ andȱ sanitation.ȱ Accessȱ toȱ electricityȱ reachesȱ onlyȱ 16ȱ percentȱ ofȱ Africanȱ citizens,ȱ comparedȱ withȱ 41ȱ percentȱ inȱ otherȱ developingȱcountries.ȱAverageȱpowerȱconsumptionȱ4isȱ12 ȱkilowattsȱperȱ capita,ȱorȱ10ȱpercentȱofȱthatȱinȱtheȱrestȱofȱtheȱdevelopingȱworldȱ(Worldȱ Bankȱ2010).ȱAfricanȱfirmsȱreportȱlosingȱ5ȱpercentȱofȱtheirȱsalesȱbecauseȱofȱ frequentȱ powerȱ outages;ȱ thisȱ figureȱ jumpsȱ toȱ 20ȱ percentȱ forȱ informalȱ firms.ȱ Whileȱprivateȱfirmsȱ areȱ eagerȱ toȱ exploreȱ theȱpotentialȱ ofȱAfricanȱ rapidȱgrowingȱmarkets,ȱtheȱlackȱofȱinfrastructureȱandȱredȱtapeȱconstituteȱ majorȱobstaclesȱtoȱprivateȱinvestment.ȱȱ ȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities 15 ȱ

Figureȱ7:ȱPavedȱRoadsȱinȱCitiesȱinȱSubȬSaharanȱAfricaȱ(milesȱperȱ1,000ȱ inhabitants)ȱȱ

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0 Miles per 1,000 inhabitants Miles Addas Dar as Dakar SSA Average of Abeba Salaam average developing Cities City ȱ Source:ȱWorldȱBankȱ2006.ȱ ȱ Strengtheningȱ connectivity.ȱ Citiesȱ withinȱ aȱ countryȱ areȱ notȱ isolatedȱ entitiesȱ andȱ theirȱ successȱ isȱ closelyȱ linkedȱ toȱ theirȱ connectivityȱ withȱ domesticȱandȱinternationalȱmarkets.ȱCitiesȱinȱAfricaȱhaveȱrelativelyȱpoorȱ connectivityȱwithȱdomesticȱandȱinternationalȱmarkets.ȱUrbanizationȱhasȱ beenȱ associatedȱ withȱ motorization,ȱ butȱ investmentȱ inȱ roadsȱ andȱ improvedȱ trafficȱ managementȱ hasȱ lagged,ȱ leadingȱ toȱ highȱ levelsȱ ofȱ congestion.ȱ Whileȱ muchȱ isȱ madeȱ ofȱ Africa’sȱ distanceȱ fromȱ worldȱ markets,ȱ theȱ primaryȱ problemȱ isȱ domestic—longȱ distancesȱ withinȱ countries.ȱ Africaȱ hasȱ oneȱ ofȱ theȱ lowestȱ roadȱ densitiesȱ inȱ theȱ world,ȱ secondȱonlyȱtoȱLatinȱAmericaȱ(figureȱ7).ȱButȱunlikeȱLatinȱAmerica,ȱAfricaȱ hasȱasȱthirdȱofȱit ȱpopulationȱinȱlandlockedȱcountriesȱandȱevenȱmoreȱfarȱ fromȱ accessȱ toȱ regionalȱ ifȱ notȱ globalȱ markets.ȱ Lowȱ interȬregionalȱ transportȱ costsȱ areȱ alsoȱ criticalȱ toȱ fosteringȱ industrialȱ competitiveness,ȱ particularlyȱ inȱ theȱ contextȱ ofȱ retainingȱ tradeȱ andȱ manufacturingȱ competitivenessȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2009).ȱ Africaȱ scoresȱ poorlyȱ onȱ logisticsȱ indices.ȱȱ High ȱtransportȱcostsȱaddȱtoȱtheȱhighȱfragmentationȱofȱtheȱcontinent.ȱ Transportationȱ costsȱ fromȱ Westȱ Africaȱ toȱ theȱ Unitedȱ Statesȱ areȱ twiceȱ thoseȱofȱotherȱregions.ȱItȱtakesȱmoreȱthanȱ40ȱdaysȱforȱgoodsȱtoȱpassȱtheȱ borderȱ inȱ Africa,ȱ twiceȱ theȱ periodȱ inȱ Latinȱ America.ȱ Forȱ landlockedȱ

16 Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ countriesȱ theȱ constraintsȱ areȱ evenȱ larger.ȱ Integrationȱ isȱ theȱ obviousȱ recommendation;ȱ butȱ whileȱ thereȱ areȱ manyȱ internationalȱ agreements,ȱ theyȱnotȱnecessarilyȱreflectȱsuccessfulȱcooperation.ȱForȱexample,ȱtheȱcostsȱ ofȱparticipatingȱinȱtheȱagreementsȱareȱtooȱhigh,ȱgivenȱtheȱmeagerȱbenefitsȱ andȱsmallȱsizeȱofȱparticipatingȱeconomies.ȱAgreementsȱacrossȱcitiesȱandȱ regionsȱ withȱ similarȱ culturesȱ andȱ languageȱ areȱ moreȱ likelyȱ toȱ beȱ successful.ȱ Integrationȱ betweenȱ neighboringȱ citiesȱ acrossȱ countriesȱ canȱ alsoȱ provideȱ theȱ baseȱ forȱ broaderȱ integration.ȱ SubȬSaharanȱ Africaȱ hasȱ manyȱ pairsȱ ofȱ largeȱ citiesȱ thatȱ areȱ nearȱ eachȱ otherȱ butȱ separatedȱ byȱ nationalȱ borders.ȱ Agreementsȱ betweenȱ theseȱ citiesȱ orȱ triangulationȱ ofȱ agreementsȱ likeȱ thoseȱ startedȱ inȱ Eastȱ Asiaȱ inȱ theȱ 1980sȱ canȱ promoteȱ integrationȱ acrossȱ space.ȱ Finally,ȱ theȱ coastlineȱ ofȱ Westȱ Africaȱ isȱ theȱ locationȱ ofȱ aȱ successionȱ ofȱ largeȱ cities,ȱ fromȱ Abidjanȱ toȱ Lome.ȱ Theȱ potentialȱ ofȱ multicountryȱ agglomerationsȱ shouldȱ beȱ consideredȱ whenȱ thinkingȱofȱinfrastructureȱandȱconnectiveȱinvestments.ȱUN ȱHabitatȱ(2010)ȱ hasȱidentifiedȱthreeȱmajorȱurbanȱcorridorsȱthatȱareȱformingȱaroundȱtheȱ productionȱ andȱ tradeȱ ofȱ cotton.ȱ Theseȱ areȱ illustrationsȱ ofȱ crossȬborderȱ spatialȱthinkingȱthatȱwouldȱrequireȱconcreteȱpolicyȱfollowȬup.ȱȱ

SustainableȱCitiesȱandȱInclusiveȱGrowthȱ Whileȱ urbanizationȱ canȱ speedȱ upȱ economicȱ transformationȱ andȱ fosterȱ broadȬbasedȱ growth,ȱ itȱ canȱ alsoȱ leadȱ toȱ persistentȱ povertyȱ andȱ unsustainabilityȱifȱnotȱproperlyȱmanaged.ȱTheȱmostȱimportantȱnegativeȱ externalitiesȱareȱcongestion,ȱpollution,ȱandȱconcentrationȱofȱpeopleȱandȱ assetsȱinȱareasȱproneȱtoȱpollutionȱandȱnaturalȱhazards.ȱIfȱleftȱunregulatedȱ andȱ inȱ theȱ faceȱ ofȱ poorȱ planning,ȱ theȱ benefitsȱ ofȱ citiesȱ canȱ beȱ overshadowedȱbyȱtheirȱcosts.ȱInȱrapidlyȱgrowingȱeconomiesȱlikeȱChina,ȱ theseȱ costsȱ areȱ highȱ andȱ increasinglyȱ moreȱ transparent.ȱ Prematureȱ mortalityȱ linkedȱ toȱ airȱ pollutionȱ isȱ oneȱ suchȱ consequence.ȱ Inȱ Africa,ȱ particulateȱ matterȱ pollutionȱ isȱ veryȱ highȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2013b),ȱ compoundingȱ theȱ dangersȱ associatedȱ withȱ untreatedȱ sewage,ȱ contaminatedȱ waterȱ sources,ȱ andȱ roadȱ accidents.ȱ Theseȱ areȱ allȱ preventableȱwithȱbasicȱinfrastructureȱinvestments.ȱȱ Withȱincreasingȱnumbersȱofȱpeopleȱlocatingȱinȱcitiesȱwithȱhighȱrisksȱ ofȱnaturalȱdisasters,ȱpoliciesȱthatȱstrengthenȱsustainabilityȱareȱessential.ȱ Africa’sȱurbanȱareasȱareȱoftenȱlocatedȱinȱlowȬriverȱdeltasȱorȱcoastalȱareasȱ directlyȱ exposedȱ toȱ seaȬlevelȱ riseȱ andȱ coastalȱ surges,ȱ andȱ thusȱ areȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities 17 ȱ especiallyȱ vulnerableȱ toȱ disasterȱ andȱ climateȱ change.ȱ Inȱ Tanzania,ȱ aȱ 2ȱ degreeȱ orȱ moreȱ warmingȱ inȱ globalȱ temperaturesȱ couldȱ causeȱ 5–19ȱ centimetersȱ ofȱ landȱ toȱ beȱ submergedȱ byȱ risingȱ seaȱ levelsȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2013d).ȱ Theȱ forcedȱ dislocationȱ ofȱ coastalȱ populationsȱ willȱ overwhelmȱ alreadyȱ weakȱ administrativeȱ structuresȱ andȱ precariousȱ finances.ȱ Environmentalȱ externalitiesȱ generatedȱ byȱ urbanizationȱ areȱ notȱ beingȱ properlyȱ addressedȱ andȱ theȱ riskȱ andȱ costsȱ ofȱ damageȱ toȱ infrastructureȱ areȱveryȱsubstantial.ȱInȱNamibia,ȱforȱexample,ȱafterȱtheȱmajorȱfloodsȱinȱ 2009,ȱ theȱ costsȱ forȱ reconstructionȱ ofȱ theȱ transportȱ infrastructureȱ wereȱ estimatedȱtoȱbeȱnearlyȱUS$350ȱmillionȱ(WorldȱBankȱ2013d).ȱȱ Successfulȱ urbanizationȱ isȱ primarilyȱ aboutȱ coordinatingȱ variousȱ typesȱofȱlongȬrunȱinvestment.ȱSinceȱurbanȱpoliciesȱlockȱinȱdevelopmentȱ patternsȱforȱdecadesȱtoȱcome,ȱtheyȱneedȱtoȱbeȱwellȱdesignedȱatȱtheȱoutset.ȱ TheȱWorldȱBankȱandȱUNEPȱhaveȱarguedȱtheȱmeritsȱofȱsustainable,ȱgreenȱ growthȱ (Worldȱ Bankȱ 2012;ȱ Hallegatteȱ 2012).ȱ Itsȱ basicȱ tenetsȱ includeȱ efficientȱ useȱ ofȱ resources,ȱ lowerȱ energyȱ consumption,ȱ andȱ reducedȱ emissions.ȱ Greenȱ sustainableȱ developmentȱ isȱ smartȱ policyȱ insofarȱ asȱ itȱ canȱ avoidȱ gettingȱ lockedȱ intoȱ unsustainableȱ andȱ ultimatelyȱ costlyȱ developmentȱ paths.ȱ Citiesȱ areȱ fundamentalȱ forȱ anyȱ greenȱ growthȱ agenda.ȱAtȱtheȱcityȱlevelȱthisȱagendaȱunfoldsȱalongȱthreeȱpillars:ȱȱ 1. Cityȱ formȱ (densityȱ leadsȱ toȱ lowerȱ GHGȱ emissionsȱ andȱ lessȱ pollution)ȱȱ 2. Greeningȱ publicȱ investmentsȱ andȱ purchasingȱ (buildings,ȱ energy,ȱwasteȱmanagement,ȱurbanȱtransport)ȱbyȱeasingȱtheȱwayȱ forȱgreenȱstartȬupsȱandȱtrainingȱofȱlocalȱworkersȱȱ 3. Raisingȱ consumerȱ awarenessȱ andȱ lowingȱ theȱ costsȱ ofȱ greenȱ technologyȱpurchasesȱ(Leipzigerȱ2012;ȱOECDȱ2011)ȱȱ Fromȱ aȱ greenȱ growthȱ perspective,ȱ theȱ massiveȱ needȱ forȱ infrastructureȱ investmentȱ mayȱ beȱ anȱ opportunityȱ forȱ Africanȱ citiesȱ toȱ adoptȱgreenerȱtechnologies,ȱpromoteȱdensity,ȱinvestȱinȱconnectivity,ȱandȱ avoidȱlockȬinȱinvestmentsȱthatȱwillȱbeȱdifficultȱtoȱreverseȱinȱtheȱfuture.ȱItȱ isȱ wellȱ establishedȱ thatȱ inȱ theȱ absenceȱ ofȱ smartȱ policiesȱ as ȱ describedȱ above,ȱ economicȱ growthȱ willȱ resultȱ inȱ increasedȱ carbonȱ emissions—atȱ leastȱ untilȱ publicȱ pressureȱ leadsȱ toȱ abatementȱ policiesȱ (Hoornwegȱ andȱ Freireȱ 2013).ȱ Figureȱ 8ȱ showsȱ theȱ crossȬcountryȱ relationȱ betweenȱ perȱ capitaȱCO2ȱandȱperȱcapitaȱGDPȱforȱ120ȱcountries.ȱThreeȱpointsȱareȱclear:ȱ

18 Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ first,ȱ theȱ relationshipȱ isȱ positive;ȱ second,ȱ theȱ shapeȱ ofȱ aȱ fittedȱ curveȱ isȱ exponential;ȱthird,ȱthereȱisȱmuchȱhigherȱvariabilityȱamongȱhighȬincomeȱ economies,ȱdenotingȱdifferencesȱinȱincentivesȱandȱabatementȱpolicies.4ȱ ȱ Figureȱ8:ȱCarbonȱEmissionsȱGoȱUpȱwithȱIncomeȱȱ 25

Per capita CO2 (2009) 5

0 4681012 Ln per capita income (2009) ȱ Sources:ȱWorldȱBankȱ(2013)ȱforȱperȱcapitaȱincome;ȱBodenȱetȱal.ȱ(2013)ȱforȱCO2ȱemissions.ȱ ȱ Oneȱ persuasiveȱ argumentȱ isȱ thatȱ theȱ greenȱ growthȱ agenda,ȱ theȱ urbanizationȱstrategiesȱthatȱcountriesȱcanȱpursue,ȱandȱbasicȱdevelopmentȱ policiesȱtoȱfosterȱhigh,ȱsustained,ȱandȱinclusiveȱgrowthȱareȱreallyȱoneȱandȱ theȱ same.ȱ Theȱ basicȱ infrastructureȱ investmentsȱ neededȱ toȱ makeȱ citiesȱ efficientȱ andȱ competitive,ȱ andȱ theȱ investmentsȱ neededȱ toȱ makeȱ citiesȱ moreȱresilientȱandȱmanageable,ȱandȱtheȱinvestmentsȱneededȱtoȱimproveȱ livabilityȱandȱwelfareȱofȱinhabitants,ȱcoincide.ȱThisȱisȱtheȱessenceȱofȱtheȱ greenȱgrowthȱagenda:ȱhowȱtoȱtakeȱadvantageȱofȱtheȱurgencyȱtoȱinvestȱinȱ infrastructureȱandȱpromoteȱgrowthȱwhileȱimprovingȱresourceȱefficiency,ȱ reducingȱwaste,ȱandȱpromotingȱsocialȱinclusionȱandȱeresilienc ȱ(Halegatteȱ 2011).ȱTheȱagendaȱwillȱincludeȱlandȱpoliciesȱtoȱpromoteȱdensity;ȱenergyȱ policiesȱ toȱ promoteȱ efficiencyȱ andȱ useȱofȱ renewableȱ sourcesȱ (especiallyȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 4ȱAȱsimilarȱgraphȱdisplayingȱemissionsȱoverȱtimeȱwouldȱshowȱthatȱmostȱOECDȱcountriesȱ startedȱ onȱ theȱ pathȱ toȱ theirȱ currentȱ perȱ capitaȱ emissionsȱ 20ȱ yearsȱ ago,ȱ whileȱ emergingȱ economiesȱareȱrapidlyȱcatchingȱup.ȱȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities 19 ȱ forȱ buildingsȱ andȱ urbanȱ traffic);ȱ priceȱ policiesȱ toȱ discourageȱ wasteȱ inȱ consumptionȱ ofȱ waterȱ andȱ energy;ȱ andȱ integratedȱ policiesȱ toȱ containȱ congestion,ȱ encourageȱ density,ȱ andȱ reduceȱ theȱ useȱ ofȱ privatelyȱ ownedȱ carsȱ inȱ theȱ rapidlyȱ growingȱ citiesȱ ofȱ Africa.ȱ Thisȱ isȱ theȱ urbanizationȱ challenge,ȱ andȱ howȱ governmentȱ dealsȱ withȱ itȱ willȱ helpȱ determineȱ theȱ economicȱfutureȱofȱAfricanȱeconomies.ȱ Makingȱurbanizationȱinclusiveȱisȱmoreȱthanȱaȱmantra.ȱItȱimpliesȱthatȱ urbanizationȱ shouldȱ beȱ aȱ keyȱ elementȱ ofȱ bringingȱ inclusiveȱ orȱ broadȬ basedȱgrowthȱtoȱAfricanȱcitiesȱandȱtowns,ȱratherȱthanȱcreatingȱslumsȱinȱ largeȱ citiesȱ andȱ unsustainableȱ livingȱ inȱ smallerȱ ones.ȱ Butȱ despiteȱ itsȱ developmentȱ potentialȱ asȱ vehiclesȱ forȱ inclusion,ȱ urbanizationȱ andȱ cityȱ growthȱ inȱ Africaȱ haveȱ deepenedȱ divisions.ȱ Forȱ example,ȱ twoȱ thirdsȱ ofȱ Africa’sȱurbanȱpopulationȱlivesȱinȱinformalȱsettlementsȱorȱslumsȱandȱ60ȱ percentȱofȱtotalȱurbanȱemploymentȱisȱinȱtheȱinformalȱeconomy.ȱWithoutȱ aȱradicalȱshiftȱinȱpriorities,ȱtheseȱconditionsȱwillȱonlyȱgetȱworse.ȱWeȱhaveȱ seenȱthatȱSubȬSaharanȱAfrica’sȱurbanȱpopulationȱhasȱincreasedȱfromȱ23ȱ percentȱinȱ1970ȱtoȱ37ȱpercentȱinȱ2011,ȱwhileȱurbanȱpovertyȱdeclinedȱonlyȱ marginallyȱ fromȱ 41.5ȱ toȱ33.6ȱ percentȱ(Worldȱ Bankȱ2013b).ȱ Thisȱ isȱ notȱ aȱ goodȱtrackȱrecord,ȱandȱisȱcontraryȱtoȱtrendsȱinȱotherȱpartsȱofȱtheȱworld.ȱ Theȱ mostȱ promisingȱ avenueȱ toȱ achievingȱ someȱ degreeȱ ofȱ economicȱ justiceȱ seemsȱ toȱ beȱ theȱ provisionȱ ofȱ aȱ minimalȱ levelȱ ofȱ publicȱ services.ȱ Thisȱ inȱ turnȱ willȱ requireȱ theȱ infrastructureȱ neededȱ toȱ provideȱ suchȱ servicesȱ(Arnottȱ2009).ȱ Policiesȱ toȱ affectȱ povertyȱ alleviationȱ inȱ Africaȱ mayȱ wellȱ needȱ toȱ includeȱurbanȱinterventionsȱthroughoutȱtheȱcitiesȱofȱdifferentȱsizesȱandȱ specializations,ȱ includingȱ intermediateȬsizeȱ citiesȱ andȱ smallerȱ marketȱ townsȱ thatȱ serveȱ theȱ ruralȱ sector.ȱ Aȱ surveyȱ inȱ ruralȱ Kagera,ȱ Tanzaniaȱ overȱ20ȱyearsȱfoundȱthatȱaboutȱ50ȱpercentȱofȱthoseȱwhoȱexitedȱpovertyȱ didȱ soȱ by ȱ transitioningȱ fromȱ agricultureȱ intoȱ smallȱ ruralȱ towns.ȱ Onȱ average,ȱ 40–50ȱ percentȱ ofȱ householdsȱ reliedȱ onȱ nonfarmȱ householdȱ enterprisesȱ asȱ anȱ incomeȱ sourceȱ (Christiansenȱ etȱ al.ȱ 2013).ȱ Moreȱ generally,ȱhouseholdȱenterprisesȱhaveȱbeenȱresponsibleȱforȱtheȱmajorityȱ ofȱ theȱ nonagriculturalȱ employmentȱ growthȱ inȱ SubȬSaharanȱ Africa,ȱ andȱ thisȱ trendȱ isȱ likelyȱ toȱ continueȱ forȱ severalȱ decades.ȱ Whileȱ informalȱ solutionsȱ mayȱ beȱ moreȱ suitableȱ toȱ theȱ incomeȱ andȱ educationȱ levelȱ ofȱ manyȱ Africanȱ townsȱ andȱ cities,ȱ government’sȱ responsibilityȱ toȱ provideȱ basicȱ accessȱ toȱ servicesȱ shouldȱ targetȱ whereȱ theȱ poorȱ are.ȱ Forȱ severalȱ

20 Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ countriesȱ inȱ Africa,ȱ theȱ potentialȱ forȱ manufacturingȱ andȱ servicesȱ toȱ absorbȱ ruralȱ laborȱ surplusȱ mayȱ beȱ lessȱ thanȱ inȱ countriesȱ withȱ strongȱ tradableȱ sectorsȱ inȱ cities.ȱ Inȱ theseȱ cases,ȱ Africa’sȱ jobsȱ mayȱ wellȱ endȱ upȱ beingȱ closerȱ toȱ theȱ agriculturalȱ sector;ȱ however,ȱ theyȱ cannotȱ emergeȱ withoutȱbasicȱinfrastructureȱservices.ȱȱ

ObservationsȱforȱtheȱFuture:ȱAsȱAfricaȱUrbanizesȱ

Inȱ orderȱ toȱ makeȱ senseȱ ofȱ urbanizationȱ inȱ Africa,ȱ itȱ isȱ usefulȱ toȱ firstȱ recognizeȱthatȱAfrica’sȱpopulationȱremainsȱpredominantlyȱrural.ȱAboutȱ 66ȱpercentȱofȱtheȱinhabitantsȱliveȱinȱruralȱareasȱwithȱsignificantȱvariationȱ acrossȱcountriesȱ(tableȱ1).ȱInȱAfrica’sȱmiddleȬincomeȱcountries,ȱhalfȱofȱtheȱ inhabitantsȱ stillȱ liveȱ inȱ ruralȱ areas,ȱ whereasȱ inȱ theȱ landlocked,ȱ lowȬ incomeȱcountriesȱtheyȱaccountȱforȱaboutȱ70ȱpercentȱ(WorldȱBankȱ2010).ȱ Theȱvastȱmajorityȱofȱtheȱpopulationȱlivesȱinȱtheȱruralȱhinterlandsȱwithinȱ sixȱhoursȱtravelȱtimeȱofȱcitiesȱhavingȱatȱleastȱ50,000ȱinhabitants.ȱOneȱthirdȱ ofȱAfrica’sȱurbanȱpopulationȱisȱconcentratedȱinȱtheȱregion’sȱ36ȱmegacitiesȱ withȱmoreȱthanȱ1ȱmillionȱinhabitants.ȱHowever,ȱmuchȱofȱtheȱremainingȱ populationȱ isȱ spreadȱ acrossȱ 232ȱ intermediateȱ citiesȱ ofȱ betweenȱ 100,000ȱ andȱ 1ȱ millionȱ inhabitantsȱ andȱ inȱ periȬurbanȱ areas.ȱ Soȱ whileȱ muchȱ ofȱ Africaȱ canȱ beȱ officiallyȱ classifiedȱ asȱ urbanized,ȱ theseȱ settlementsȱ areȱ urbanȱ withȱ significantȱ caveats.ȱ Mostȱ lackȱ basicȱ infrastructureȱ andȱ amenitiesȱandȱmostȱareȱthereforeȱunableȱtoȱcaptureȱtheȱusualȱeconomicȱ benefitsȱofȱcities.ȱ ȱ Table 1: Current Distribution of Population by Type of Settlement

Percentage of total population

GNI per Secondary Peri-urban Rural Remote rural Country type Capita ($) Megacities cities areas hinterland areas

Sub-Saharan 875 13.4 10.4 10.3 49.8 16.4 Africa

Middle income 5,081 24.6 16.2 12.5 50.1 1.6 countries

Source:ȱWorldȱBankȱ2010.ȱ ȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities 21 ȱ

Withinȱ thisȱ reality,ȱ Africanȱ urbanizationȱ facesȱ fourȱ broadȱ challenges:ȱȱ 1. rapidȱ growthȱ ofȱ populationsȱ withȱ lowȱ levelsȱ ofȱ economicȱ activityȱbasedȱonȱinadequateȱphysicalȱandȱhumanȱcapitalȱȱ 2. lowȱdensity,ȱsprawl,ȱandȱinformalityȱinȱperiȬurbanȱfringesȱthatȱ exacerbateȱpovertyȱinȱtheȱcontinentȱȱ 3. weakȱ coverageȱ ofȱ basicȱ infrastructureȱ services,ȱ notablyȱ water,ȱ energy,ȱ and ȱ sanitation,ȱ whichȱ makesȱ itȱ difficultȱ toȱ improveȱ welfareȱinȱeitherȱurbanȱorȱruralȱenvironmentsȱȱ 4. weaknessesȱinȱadministration,ȱinstitutions,ȱandȱoverallȱplanningȱ capacityȱȱ Theseȱ areȱ theȱ challengesȱ ofȱ development,ȱ regardlessȱ ofȱ whereȱ peopleȱresideȱorȱwhatȱtheirȱtypeȱofȱsettlement.ȱForȱthisȱreason,ȱweȱwouldȱ argueȱ againstȱ separatingȱ theȱ urbanizationȱ agendaȱ fromȱ theȱ overallȱ developmentȱ agenda.ȱ Oneȱ criticalȱ dimensionȱ ofȱ aȱ responseȱ toȱ theȱ fourȱ challengesȱisȱeconomicȱplanning,ȱanȱindispensableȱtoolȱforȱtheȱgenerationȱ ofȱeconomicȱgrowthȱandȱjobs,ȱasȱwellȱasȱtheȱdeliveryȱofȱservicesȱtoȱtheȱ poor.ȱ Thisȱ includesȱ soundȱ developmentȱ planningȱ andȱ urbanȱ landȱ useȱ planning.ȱ Anotherȱ dimensionȱ isȱ infrastructure—withȱ electricityȱ andȱ transportȱbeingȱtheȱhighestȱpriority—toȱalleviateȱurbanizationȱpressuresȱ andȱbottlenecksȱtoȱdevelopment.ȱȱ AccordingȱtoȱtheȱWorldȱDevelopmentȱReportȱ2009ȱ(WorldȱBankȱ2009),ȱ aȱstrategyȱtoȱpromoteȱefficientȱurbanizationȱshouldȱbeȱtargetedȱtoȱdensityȱ levelȱ ofȱ eachȱ area.ȱ Moreȱ specifically,ȱ theȱ strategyȱ shouldȱ focusȱ onȱ landȱ marketȱ efficiency,ȱ connectivity,ȱandȱ targetedȱ interventionsȱ toȱ dealȱ withȱ problemsȱarisingȱfromȱpollution,ȱcongestion,ȱandȱconcentrationȱofȱpeopleȱ inȱvulnerableȱareas.ȱForȱeaseȱofȱexpositionȱandȱforȱpolicyȱpurposes,ȱweȱ illustrateȱ theseȱ principlesȱ inȱ threeȱ typesȱ ofȱ Africanȱ cities:ȱ fastȱ growingȱ citiesȱ(thoseȱgrowingȱatȱperhapsȱ4ȱpercentȱaȱyear,ȱsoȱtheyȱ willȱdoubleȱinȱ sizeȱ inȱ lessȱ thanȱ 20ȱ years),ȱ majorȱ citiesȱ (capitalsȱ thatȱ areȱ expandingȱ faster),ȱandȱmegacitiesȱ(ofȱaboutȱ10ȱmillionȱinhabitantsȱorȱmore)ȱ(tableȱ2).ȱȱ ȱ ȱ

22 Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ Africa ȱ ’ raiain hlegsadOpportunities and Challenges Urbanization: s ȱ ȱ ȱ Table 2: Projected Urban Populations Fast growing Major cities Mega cities/mega regions Population (millions) Population (millions) Population (millions) Growth Growth Growth City/county 2010 2025 (%) City/county 2010 2025 (%) City/county 2010 2025 (%) Kinshasa/Congo, 9.1 16.1 4.1 Nairobi/Kenya 3.3 5.7 3.8 Cairo/Egypt 12.5 15.6 1.5 Dem. Rep. Luanda/Angola 4.8 8.7 3.7 Dar es 3.4 6.2 3.7 Lagos/Nigeria 10.6 15.8 2.7 Salaam/Tanzania Maputo/Mozambique 1.6 2.6 3.0 Addis 2.8 4.2 3.9 Johannesburg/ 3.9 4.1 0.7 Ababa/Ethiopia South Africa Kampala/Unganda 4.2 4.7 Dakar/Senegal 2.9 4.3 2.8 Kinshasa/Congo, 9.1 16.1 4.1 Dem. Rep. Abidjan/Côte 4.1 6.3 3.0 d’Ivoire

Source:ȱUNȬHabitatȱ2010ȱ(http://www.unhabitat.org.jo/en/inp/Upload/1052216_Data%20tables.pdf).ȱ ȱ ȱ 23

ȱ ȱ

TheȱFastȱGrowingȱCity:ȱTheȱCaseȱforȱEarlyȱActionȱȱ Countriesȱ atȱ aȱ lowȱ levelȱ ofȱ urbanizationȱ butȱ withȱ rapidȱ populationȱ growthȱfaceȱtheȱmostȱcomplicatedȱchallengeȱbutȱalsoȱtheȱgreatestȱpolicyȱ opportunity.ȱBurkinaȱFaso,ȱBurundi,ȱtheȱDemocraticȱRepublicȱofȱCongo,ȱ Ethiopia,ȱMalawi,ȱNiger,ȱTanzania,ȱandȱUgandaȱareȱinȱthisȱcategory.ȱTheȱ urbanȱpopulationȱisȱgrowingȱaboveȱ4ȱpercentȱaȱyear,ȱwhileȱmoreȱthanȱ75ȱ percentȱ ofȱ theȱ populationȱ isȱ stillȱ livingȱ inȱ ruralȱ areas.ȱ Incomesȱ areȱ lowȱ andȱ infrastructureȱ isȱ lagging.ȱ Publicȱ policyȱ willȱ probablyȱ favorȱ investmentȱ inȱ productiveȱ infrastructureȱ toȱ accommodateȱ theȱ needsȱ ofȱ economicȱ activityȱ andȱ newȱ firms,ȱ leavingȱ new ȱ migrantsȱ toȱ fendȱ forȱ themselvesȱ inȱ theȱ urbanȱ periphery.ȱ Theȱ capitalȱ cities—includingȱ Kinshasa,ȱLuanda,ȱMaputo,ȱandȱKampala—haveȱbeenȱgrowingȱfastȱatȱ4– 5ȱpercentȱaȱyearȱandȱwillȱcontinueȱtoȱgrowȱfastȱinȱtheȱnearȱfuture.ȱThisȱ willȱ absorbȱ muchȱ ofȱ theȱ migrationȱ fromȱ theȱ ruralȱ areasȱ andȱ theȱ demographicȱgrowthȱofȱtheȱurbanȱareasȱthemselves.ȱȱ Theseȱ citiesȱ couldȱ useȱ theȱ opportunityȱ ofȱ rapidȱ growthȱ toȱ makeȱ efficientȱdecisionsȱinȱtermsȱofȱbothȱinvestmentȱandȱcityȱform.ȱTheȱmostȱ importantȱ policyȱ toolȱ wouldȱ beȱ forwardȬlookingȱ urbanȱ participatoryȱ planning,ȱ whichȱ couldȱ guideȱ urbanȱ expansionȱ andȱ theȱ associatedȱ infrastructureȱneeds.ȱUrbanȱdynamics ȱareȱseldomȱcorrectlyȱforeseen,ȱandȱ inȱmostȱcasesȱtheȱpoliticalȱeconomyȱhasȱtheȱlastȱwordȱinȱdeterminingȱtheȱ locationȱ ofȱ infrastructure.ȱ Toȱ beȱ efficient,ȱ planningȱ shouldȱ beȱ flexible,ȱ participatory,ȱ andȱ indicativeȱ (withȱ aȱ visionȱ forȱ theȱ nextȱ 10–15ȱ years).ȱ Urbanȱ referenceȱ mapsȱ shouldȱ planȱ majorȱ roadsȱ andȱ cityȱ services,ȱ theȱ areasȱforȱurbanȱexpansion,ȱandȱtheȱreservesȱforȱamenities.ȱȱ Planningȱ shouldȱ aimȱ toȱ reduceȱsprawl,ȱ enhanceȱ densification,ȱandȱ preventȱ developmentȱ inȱ environmentallyȱ precariousȱ zones.ȱ Withoutȱ realisticȱfiscalȱprojectionsȱforȱresourceȱavailability,ȱurbanȱplansȱoftenȱfail.ȱ Dakar,ȱ Lagos,ȱ andȱ Maputoȱ recentlyȱ preparedȱ cityȱ developmentȱ strategies,ȱ asȱ frameworksȱ toȱ encourageȱ participationȱ fromȱ theȱ communityȱinȱdiscussingȱchallengesȱandȱopportunities.ȱȱ Theȱ secondȱ policyȱ priorityȱ wouldȱ beȱ theȱ efficientȱ useȱ ofȱ landȱ andȱ institutionsȱ toȱ strengthenȱ propertyȱ rights,ȱ recordȱ marketȱ transactions,ȱ andȱ steadilyȱ moveȱ towardȱ moreȱ efficientȱ landȱ markets.ȱ Povertyȱ andȱ inclusionȱ issuesȱ canȱ bestȱ beȱ addressedȱ byȱ recognizingȱ theȱ roleȱ ofȱ informalȱ settlementsȱ inȱ providingȱ shelterȱ forȱ millionsȱ ofȱ poorȱ people,ȱ andȱ ensuringȱ theȱ deliveryȱ ofȱ basicȱ services,ȱ includingȱ educationȱ andȱ

24 Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ health,ȱ regardlessȱ ofȱ location.ȱ Thisȱ developmentȱ ofȱ humanȱ capitalȱ isȱ essentialȱforȱbridgingȱtheȱinequalityȱgapȱinȱnextȱgenerations,ȱbutȱalsoȱinȱ upgradingȱ theȱ skillsȱ ofȱ theȱ workforce.ȱ Financeȱ willȱ needȱ toȱ comeȱ fromȱ theȱcentralȱgovernment,ȱbutȱlandȬbasedȱtaxesȱ(includingȱpropertyȱtaxes)ȱ andȱuserȱchargesȱcanȱbeȱeffectivelyȱused.ȱ Internationalȱassistanceȱcouldȱ beȱimportantȱinȱidentifyingȱtheȱfactorsȱthatȱwouldȱmakeȱpossibleȱearlyȬ onȱgreenȱstrategiesȱforȱurbanizingȱAfrica.ȱ

TheȱLargeȱCities:ȱCapitalizingȱonȱEconomicȱActivityȱȱ DarȱesȱSalaam,ȱNairobi,ȱandȱAddisȱAbabaȱareȱlarge,ȱfastȬgrowingȱcitiesȱ withȱ theȱ potentialȱ toȱ captureȱ agglomerationȱ economies.ȱ Nationalȱ universitiesȱ areȱ producingȱ plannersȱ andȱ engineersȱ whoȱ areȱ ableȱ toȱ contributeȱ toȱ theȱ urbanȱ sustainabilityȱ debate.ȱ Theirȱ countriesȱ areȱ reachingȱ theȱ 50ȱ percentȱ urbanizationȱ rateȱ andȱ haveȱ governanceȱ structuresȱinȱplace.ȱTheȱchallengeȱisȱtoȱensureȱcontinuingȱurbanȱgrowth,ȱ whileȱimprovingȱdensityȱinȱtheȱcenterȱandȱconnectivityȱtoȱtheȱperiphery.ȱ Thisȱ groupingȱ includesȱ theȱ oilȬexportingȱ countriesȱ andȱ theȱ middleȬ incomeȱcountries,ȱsuchȱasȱBotswana,ȱCapeȱVerde,ȱandȱSenegal.ȱMiddleȬ incomeȱcountriesȱofȱNorthernȱAfricaȱhaveȱintroducedȱeffectiveȱpoliciesȱtoȱ absorbȱinformalȱsettlementsȱandȱprovideȱshelterȱtoȱtheȱpopulation.5ȱForȱ largeȱ citiesȱ inȱ SubȬSaharanȱ Africa,ȱ theȱ challengeȱ willȱ beȱ toȱ includeȱ theȱ emergingȱ developmentȱ inȱ theȱ peripheryȱ andȱ consolidateȱ orȱ reformȱ theȱ olderȱ structuresȱ inȱ cityȱ centers.ȱ Onȱ landȱ management,ȱ thereȱ mayȱ beȱ benefitȱ inȱ relaxingȱ regulationsȱ soȱ thatȱ citiesȱ canȱ growȱ inȱ heightȱ andȱ captureȱ theȱ benefitsȱ of ȱ density.ȱ Ifȱ governanceȱ issuesȱ canȱ beȱ effectivelyȱ handled,ȱgreaterȱcooperationȱwithȱtheȱprivateȱsectorȱcanȱyieldȱeconomicȱ gains,ȱespeciallyȱinȱconnectiveȱinfrastructure.ȱ

MegaȱCitiesȱ IfȱUNȱHabitatȱprojectionsȱproveȱaccurate,ȱbyȱ2050,ȱ20ȱofȱtheȱlargestȱworldȱ citiesȱ willȱ beȱ inȱ Africa.ȱ Largeȱ citiesȱ bringȱ enormousȱ opportunitiesȱ ofȱ growthȱandȱprosperity,ȱprovidedȱthatȱbasicȱpolicyȱstructuresȱareȱinȱplace.ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ 5ȱ Egypt,ȱ Morocco,ȱ andȱ Tunisiaȱ haveȱ achievedȱ aȱ remarkableȱ declineȱ inȱ theȱ percentageȱ ofȱ populationȱlivingȱinȱslums.ȱTheyȱhaveȱusedȱmethodologiesȱsimilarȱtoȱtheȱhighlyȱsuccessfulȱ programsȱ inȱ Hongȱ Kongȱ SAR,ȱ China,ȱ andȱ Singapore,ȱ includingȱ strongȱ presenceȱ ofȱ theȱ publicȱ sectorȱ andȱ anȱ effectiveȱ housingȱ financeȱ system.ȱ Thousandsȱ ofȱ housingȱ units ȱ haveȱ beenȱmadeȱavailableȱinȱtheȱlastȱ10ȱyears.ȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities 25 ȱ

ThisȱincludesȱwellȬfunctioningȱlandȱmarkets,ȱurbanȱmobility,ȱandȱwaysȱ toȱ dealȱ withȱ pollution.ȱ Toȱ accommodateȱ increasingȱ populationȱ andȱ absorbȱ slums,ȱ financialȱ marketsȱ haveȱ toȱ workȱ wellȱ andȱ complexȱ programsȱ needȱ toȱ beȱ organizedȱ toȱ helpȱ createȱ affordableȱ housingȱ markets.ȱ Cairo,ȱ Johannesburg,ȱ andȱ Moroccanȱ citiesȱ haveȱ beenȱ experimenting.ȱ Targetedȱ programsȱ haveȱ beenȱ designedȱ andȱ implemented,ȱ someȱ withȱ remarkableȱ success:ȱ forȱ example,ȱ theȱ percentageȱofȱslumȱdwellersȱinȱCairoȱfellȱfromȱ50ȱpercentȱtoȱ17ȱpercentȱinȱ 20ȱyears.ȱTheȱcityȱhasȱalsoȱauctionedȱpublicȱlandȱtoȱfinanceȱinfrastructureȱ programs.ȱ Theȱ Egyptianȱ governmentȱ alsoȱ triedȱ aȱ costlyȱ planȱ toȱ accommodateȱnewcomersȱbyȱcreatingȱnewȱcitiesȱinȱtheȱdesert,ȱbutȱwithȱ littleȱ success.ȱ Inȱ Seoul,ȱ theȱ creationȱ ofȱ aȱ polycentricȱ structureȱ forȱ theȱ megaȬregionȱ embracedȱ connectivityȱ byȱ placingȱ newȱ localitiesȱ relativelyȱ closeȱ toȱ Seoulȱ (10ȱ kilometers).ȱ Thisȱ schemeȱ allowedȱ forȱ anȱ organicȱ decentralizationȱ andȱ economicȱ specializationȱ accordingȱ toȱ economicȱ clustering.ȱTheȱRepublicȱofsȱKoreaȱha ȱsignificantȱexperienceȱinȱmanagingȱ megacities.ȱ Financingȱ usuallyȱ isȱ notȱ aȱ majorȱ obstacle,ȱ sinceȱ theȱ bulkȱ ofȱ nationalȱeconomicȱactivityȱisȱcenteredȱinȱandȱaroundȱtheȱmegacity.ȱThus,ȱ theȱ emergingȱ megacitiesȱ ofȱ Lagosȱ andȱ Kinshasaȱ willȱ haveȱ modelsȱ toȱ chooseȱfromȱifȱtheyȱplanȱeffectively.ȱ Goingȱ forward,ȱ urbanizationȱ canȱ eitherȱ beȱ seenȱ asȱ aȱ threatȱ orȱ anȱ opportunity.ȱAfricaȱ hasȱ someȱ distinctȱ characteristicsȱ inȱitsȱurbanizationȱ pattern.ȱHowever,ȱthereȱisȱalsoȱaȱbodyȱofȱpracticeȱthatȱcanȱbeȱdrawnȱonȱ toȱenableȱurbanizationȱtoȱplayȱaȱpositive,ȱandȱprobablyȱdecisive,ȱroleȱinȱ Africa’sȱ development.ȱ Notȱ toȱ dealȱ withȱ urbanizationȱ willȱ retardȱ developmentȱprospectsȱandȱproveȱcostly.ȱItȱisȱtheȱdevelopmentȱagendaȱ forȱtheȱcontinent.ȱ ȱ ȱ

26 Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ

Referencesȱ

Acemoglu,ȱ Daron,ȱ andȱ Jamesȱ Robinson.ȱ 2010.ȱ “Whyȱ isȱ Africaȱ Poor?ȱ “EconomicȱHistoryȱofȱDevelopingȱRegionsȱ25(1):ȱ21–50.ȱ AFRICAPOLIS.ȱ2008.ȱ“UrbanizationȱTrendsȱ1950–2020:ȱAȱGeoȬstatisticalȱ Approach,ȱ Westȱ Africa,ȱ Factȱ Sheetsȱ Byȱ Country.”ȱ AFDȱ (Africaȱ department),ȱ coordinatedȱ byȱ SEDETȱ (Developingȱ Societiesȱ inȱ SpaceȱandȱTime)ȱteamsȱ(CNRS/UniversitéȱParisȱDiderot).ȱȱ Arnott,ȱ R.ȱ 2009.ȱ “Housingȱ Policyȱ inȱ Developingȱ Countries:ȱ Theȱ ImportanceȱofȱtheȱInformalȱEconomy.”ȱInȱUrbanizationȱandȱGrowth,ȱ Spenceȱetȱal.,ȱeds.ȱWashington,ȱDC:ȱCommissionȱforȱGrowthȱandȱ Development.ȱ Au,ȱ ChunȬCung,ȱ andȱ J.ȱ Vernonȱ Henderson.ȱ 2006.ȱ “Howȱ Migrationȱ Restrictionsȱ Limitȱ Agglomerationȱ andȱ Productivityȱ inȱ China.”ȱ JournalȱofȱDevelopmentȱEconomicsȱ80(2):ȱ350–88.ȱ Boden,ȱ,ȱT.ȱA. R.ȱJ.ȱAndres,ȱandȱG.ȱMarland.ȱ2013.ȱ“Global,ȱRegional,ȱandȱ Nationalȱ FossilȬFuelȱ CO2ȱ Emissions.ȱ Carbonȱ Dioxideȱ Informationȱ Analysisȱ Center.ȱ Availableȱ at:ȱ http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/overview_2010.html.ȱ Christiansen,ȱ Luc,ȱ Joachimȱ Deȱ Weerdt,ȱ andȱ Yasuyukiȱ Todo.ȱ 2013.ȱ “Urbanizationȱ andȱ Povertyȱ Reduction—Theȱ Roleȱ ofȱ Ruralȱ Diversificationȱ andȱ Secondaryȱ Towns”.ȱ Policyȱ Researchȱ Workingȱ Paperȱ6422.ȱWorldȱBank,ȱWashington,ȱDC.ȱ Collier,ȱ Paul.ȱ 2006.ȱ “Africa’sȱ Economicȱ Growth:ȱ Opportunitiesȱ andȱ Constraints.”ȱ Centreȱ forȱ Africanȱ Studies,ȱ Departmentȱ ofȱ Economics,ȱ Oxfordȱ University.ȱ Availableȱ at:ȱ http://www.afdb.ȱ org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Knowledge/09484307ȬENȬ AFRICAȬSȬECONOMICȬGROWTHȬOPPORTUNITIESȬANDȬ CONSTRAINTS.PDF.ȱ Collier,ȱ Paul,ȱ andȱ Anthonyȱ Venables.ȱ 2007.ȱ “Rethinkingȱ Tradeȱ Preferences:ȱ Howȱ Africaȱ Canȱ Diversifyȱ Itsȱ Exports.”ȱ Theȱ Worldȱ Economyȱ30(8):ȱ1326–45.ȱȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities 27 ȱ

———.ȱ2011.ȱ“ProductivityȱinȱCities:ȱSelfȱSelection,ȱandȱSorting.”ȱJournalȱ ofȱEconomicȱGeographyȱ11(2):ȱ241–51.ȱ Commissionȱ onȱ Growthȱ andȱ Development.ȱ 2008.ȱ Theȱ Growthȱ Report:ȱ Strategiesȱ forȱ Sustainedȱ Growthȱ andȱ Inclusiveȱ Development.ȱ WashingtonȱDC:ȱWorldȱBank.ȱ Evenson,ȱR.ȱE.,ȱandȱD.ȱGollin.ȱ2003.ȱ“AssessingȱtheȱImpactȱofȱtheȱGreenȱ Revolution:ȱ1960–2000.”ȱScience ȱ300:ȱ758–62.ȱ Fay,ȱ Marianne,ȱ andȱ Charlotteȱ Opal.ȱ 2000.ȱ “Urbanizationȱ Withoutȱ Growth:ȱ Aȱ NotȬSoȬUncommonȱ Phenomenon.”ȱ Policyȱ Researchȱ WorkingȱPaperȱ2412.ȱWorldȱBank,ȱWashington,ȱDC.ȱ Ferre,ȱ Celineȱ andȱ Ferreira,ȱ H.ȱ G.ȱ Francisco,ȱandȱ Peterȱ Lanjou.ȱ 2010.ȱ “Isȱ Thereȱ aȱ Metropolitanȱ Bias?ȱ Theȱ Inverseȱ Relationshipȱ betweenȱ Povertyȱ andȱ Cityȱ Sizeȱ inȱ Selectedȱ Developingȱ Countries.”ȱ Policyȱ ResearchȱWorkingȱPaperȱ5508.ȱWorldȱBank,ȱWashington,ȱDC.ȱ Fox,ȱ Sean.ȱ 2012.ȱ “Urbanizationȱ asȱ aȱ Globalȱ Historicalȱ Process:ȱ Theoryȱ andȱEvidenceȱfromȱSubȬSaharanȱAfrica.ȱPopulationȱandȱdevelopmentȱ review.ȱVolumeȱ38.ȱIssueȱ2.ȱPageȱ285.ȱ Freire,ȱMariaȱEmilia.ȱ2013.ȱ“UrbanizationȱandȱGreenȱGrowthȱinȱAfrica.”ȱ Growthȱ Dialogueȱ Discussionȱ Paper.ȱ Theȱ Growthȱ Dialogue,ȱ Washington,ȱDC.ȱ Gollin,ȱ Douglas,ȱ Remiȱ Jedwab,ȱ andȱ Dietrichȱ Vollrath.ȱ 2013.ȱ “Urbanizationȱ Withȱ andȱ Withoutȱ Industrialization.”ȱ Workingȱ Paperȱ 2013Ȭ290Ȭ26.ȱ Departmentȱ ofȱ Economics,ȱ Universityȱ ofȱ Houston.ȱ Gollin,ȱ Douglas,ȱ Remiȱ Jedwab,ȱ andȱ Dietrichȱ Vollrath.ȱ 2013.ȱ “Urbanizationȱ Withȱ andȱ Withoutȱ Structuralȱ Transformation.”ȱ MeetingȱPaperȱ344,ȱSocietyȱforȱEconomicȱDynamics.ȱȱ Hallegatte,ȱ Stephan.ȱ 2012.ȱ “Theȱ Economicsȱ ofȱ Sustainableȱ Cities.”ȱ Inȱ Towardsȱ aȱ Partnershipȱ ofȱ Sustainableȱ Cities,ȱ Hoornwegȱ etȱ al.,ȱ eds.ȱ Washington,ȱDC:ȱWorldȱBank.ȱ Henderson,ȱ J.ȱ Vernon,ȱ 2002.ȱ “Urbanizationȱ inȱ Developingȱ Countries.”ȱ TheȱWorldȱBankȱResearchȱObserverȱ17(1):ȱ89–112.ȱ

28 Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ

———.ȱ 2005.ȱ “Urbanizationȱ andȱ Growth.”ȱ Inȱ Handbookȱ ofȱ Economicȱ Growth,ȱVol.ȱ1,ȱP.ȱAghionȱandȱS.ȱDurlauf,ȱeds.,ȱ1543–91.ȱElsevier.ȱ ———.ȱ2009.ȱ“UrbanizationȱinȱChina:ȱPolicyȱIssuesȱandȱOptions.”ȱChinaȱ EconomicȱResearchȱandȱAdvisoryȱProgram,ȱBrownȱUniversityȱandȱ NationalȱBureauȱofȱEconomicȱResearch.ȱȱ ———.ȱ2010.ȱ“CitiesȱandȱDevelopment.”ȱJournalȱofȱRegionalȱ Scienceȱ50(1):ȱ 515–40.ȱ Henderson,ȱJ.ȱVernon,ȱandȱAnthonyȱVenables.ȱ2008.ȱ“TheȱDynamicsȱofȱ CityȱFormation.”ȱNBERȱWorkingȱPaperȱ13769.ȱNationalȱBureauȱofȱ EconomicȱResearch,ȱCambridge,ȱMA.ȱ Henderson,ȱ J.ȱ Vernon,ȱ Markȱ Roberts,ȱ andȱ Adamȱ Storeygard.ȱ 2013.ȱ “Isȱ Urbanizationȱ inȱ SubȬSaharanȱ Africaȱ Different?”ȱ Policyȱ Researchȱ WorkingȱPaperȱ6481.ȱWorldȱBank,ȱWashington,ȱDC.ȱ Hoornweg,ȱ Daniel,ȱ andȱ Milaȱ Freire.ȱ 2013.ȱ Buildingȱ Sustainabilityȱ inȱ anȱ Urbanizingȱ World:ȱ Aȱ Partnershipȱ Report.ȱ Washington,ȱ DC:ȱ Worldȱ Bank.ȱ Internationalȱ Monetaryȱ Fundȱ (IMF).ȱ 2011.ȱ Regionalȱ Economicȱ Outlookȱ forȱ Africa:ȱSustainingȱtheȱGrowth.ȱWashington,ȱDC:ȱIMF.ȱ Leipziger,ȱDanny.ȱ2012.ȱ“WhatȱDoȱWeȱKnowȱAboutȱGreenȱGrowthȱandȱ ItsȱPolicyȱRamifications.”PolicyȱBriefȱNo.ȱ4.ȱTheȱGrowthȱDialogue,ȱ Washington,ȱDC.ȱ Lewis,ȱW.ȱA.ȱ1955.ȱTheȱTheoryȱofȱEconomicȱGrowth.ȱHomewood,ȱIL:ȱIrwin.ȱ McMillan,ȱ Margaret,ȱ andȱ Daniȱ Rodrik.ȱ 2011.ȱ “Globalization,ȱ Structuralȱ Changeȱ andȱ Productivityȱ Growth.”ȱ NBERȱ Workingȱ Paperȱ 17143.ȱ NationalȱBureauȱofȱEconomicȱResearch,ȱCambridge,ȱMA.ȱ Organisationȱ forȱ Economicȱ CoȬoperationȱ andȱ Developmentȱ (OECD).ȱ 2011.ȱCompactȱCityȱPolicies.ȱAȱComparativeȱAssessment.ȱParisȱOECD.ȱ Potts,ȱDeborah.ȱ2012.ȱ“WhatȱHappenedȱtoȱAfricaȱRapidȱUrbanization?”ȱ AfricaȱResearchȱInstitute.ȱȱ Puga,ȱ Diego,ȱ andȱ Anthonyȱ Venables.ȱ 1996.ȱ “Theȱ Spreadȱ ofȱ Industry:ȱ Spatialȱ Agglomerationȱ inȱ Economicȱ Development.”ȱ Journalȱ ofȱ theȱ JapaneseȱandȱInternationalȱEconomiesȱ10(4):ȱ440–64.ȱ

Africa’s Urbanization: Challenges and Opportunities 29 ȱ

Simkins,ȱ Charles.ȱ 2013.ȱ “Urbanizationȱ inȱ Africaȱ andȱ Itsȱ Relationȱ toȱ theȱ Demographicȱ Dividend:ȱ 2010ȱ toȱ 2060.”ȱ Availableȱ at:ȱ https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/166 57/815460WP0Afric00Box379851B00PUBLIC0.pdf?sequence=1.ȱ SpenceȱM.,ȱP.ȱAnnez,ȱandȱR.ȱBuckley.ȱ2009.ȱ“UrbanizationȱandȱGrowth.”ȱ Backgroundȱ paperȱ forȱ theȱ Commissionȱ onȱ Growthȱ andȱ Development,ȱWashingtonȱDC.ȱ Taylor,ȱJ.ȱ2008.ȱ“PovertyȱandȱVulnerability.”ȱInȱShahidȱYusufȱandȱTonyȱ Saich,ȱeds.,ȱChinaȱUrbanizes.ȱWashington,ȱDC:ȱWorldȱBank.ȱȱ UNȬHabitat.ȱ2010.ȱTheȱStateȱofȱAfricanȱCities.ȱNairobi:ȱUNȬHabitat.ȱ Venables,ȱ Anthony.ȱ 2010.ȱ “Economicȱ Geographyȱ andȱ Africanȱ Development”ȱRegionalȱScienceȱ89(3):ȱ469–83.ȱ Worldȱ Bank.ȱ 2008.ȱ Worldȱ Developmentȱ Reportȱ 2008:ȱ Agricultureȱ forȱ Development.ȱWashington,ȱDC:ȱWorldȱBank.ȱȱ ———.ȱ 2009.ȱ World ȱ Developmentȱ Reportȱ 2009:ȱ Reshapingȱ Economicȱ Geography.ȱWashington,ȱDC:ȱWorldȱBank.ȱ ———.ȱ 2010.ȱ Africa’sȱ Infrastructure.ȱ Aȱ Timeȱ forȱ Transformation.ȱ Washington,ȱDC:ȱWorldȱBank.ȱ ———.ȱ 2011.ȱ Towardsȱ aȱ Partnershipȱ ofȱ Sustainableȱ Cities.ȱ Workshop,ȱ Juneȱ13–14.ȱWorldȱBank,ȱWashington,ȱDC.ȱȱ ———.ȱ2012.ȱGreenȱandȱInclusiveȱGrowth.ȱWashington,ȱDC:ȱWorldȱBank.ȱ ———.ȱ 2013a.ȱ Globalȱ Monitoringȱ Reportȱ 2013:ȱ RuralȬUrbanȱ Dynamicsȱ andȱ theȱMillenniumȱDevelopmentȱGoals.ȱWashington,ȱDC:ȱWorldȱBank.ȱ ———.ȱ 2013b.ȱ “Harnessingȱ Urbanizationȱ toȱ Endȱ Povertyȱ andȱ Boostȱ ProsperityȱinȱAfrica.”ȱWorldȱBank,ȱWashington,ȱDC.ȱȱ ———.ȱ 2013c.ȱ Worldȱ Developmentȱ Indicators.ȱ Worldȱ Bank,ȱ Washington,ȱ DC.ȱAvailableȱat:ȱhttp://data.worldbank.org/products/wdi.ȱȱ ———.ȱ2013d.ȱTurnȱDownȱtheȱHeat:ȱClimate ȱExtremes,ȱRegionalȱImpacts,ȱandȱ theȱCaseȱforȱResilience.ȱWashington,ȱDC:ȱWorldȱBank.ȱ

30 Maria Freire, Somik Lall, and Danny Leipzigerȱ

frica is urbanizing fast. Its rate of urbanization soared from 15 Apercent in 1960 to 40 percent in 2010, and is projected to reach 60 percent in 2050 (UN Habitat 2010). Urban populations in Africa DUHH[SHFWHGWRWULSOHLQWKHQH[W\HDUVFKDQJLQJWKHSURÀOHRIWKH region, and challenging policy makers to harness urbanization for sustainable and inclusive growth. Although many have written about the phenomena, what is clear to us is that is impossible to deal with Africa’s growth and poverty challenges without managing urbanization. Urbanization is not a sub-plot, but rather the main policy narrative for Africa.

Maria Emilia Freire is a Senior Advisor at the Growth Dialogue and former Senior Advisor at the World Bank. Somik Lall is a Lead Economist for Urban Development in the World Bank’s Urban and Disaster Risk Management Department. Danny Leipziger is the Managing Director of the Growth Dialogue and Professor of International Business at the George Washington University School of Business in Washington, DC.

The Growth Dialogue is a network of senior policy makers, advisors, and academics dedicated to sustainable and shared economic growth. Towards this end, it aims to promulgate new views and insights on policies that can help shape global thinking; to be an independent voice on economic growth; and to be an active platform for policy dialogue among those entrusted with producing growth in developing and emerging market economies.

http://www.growthdialogue.org/ [email protected]