And Its Solid Water Storage—Glacier Volume

Investigation on feature of Pakistan water tower and its solid water storage—glacier volume

Yinsheng Zhang

Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Outline Introduction：Upper Indus River Basin 1 (UIB) —Pakistan water Tower

2 Collaborative researches about the water tower

3 Solid status storage of Pakistan water tower — glacier ice volume TPE – Water Tower of the Asia Region

 Significant concentration of Cryosphere – Third Pole  Origination of Larger Rivers – Water Tower  Pakistan – Origin of Indus River

3 Upper Indus River Basin（UIB) - Water Tower of Pakistan

Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Westerly circulation controlling

5 3.Variation of precipitation isotope and difference of vapor source

Spring and Summer Autumn & Winter Spring and Summer Westerly Oceanity Local

Spring and summer

T P

Autumn and winter

(Wang et al., 2017)

• Precipitation in UIB is mainly influenced by westerly and local water circulation. Extent of Monsoon Currents UIB Precipitation (mm) Khunjerab (4730) Ziarat (3669)

Yasin (3353)

Zani Pass (3000) Naltar (2810) Gupis (2156) Hunza (2156)

Ushkor (3353) Gilgit (1459) Shendur (3719)

Bunji (1470) Shigar (2300)

Astore (2168) Chillas (1251) Rama (3140) Skardu (2181) Hushey (2995) Rattu (2920) Shangla Deosai (4356) Burzil (4030) (2134)

Most of the UIB Precipitation falls in winter and spring seasons mainly due to westerly circulations, whereas summer precipitation constitutes limited proportion UIB Discharge

Hunza Gilgit

Astore Shigar Kachura

Shyok

Kharmong Besham Huge amount of Glaciers in Upper Indus Basin (UIB)

Confluence of HKH Area (~166,000 km2) 12% glaciers area —Karakoram Anomaly(Hewitt, 2005; Gardelle et al., 2012)

ICEsat-SRTM (Kääb et al., 2015) Observation (Yao et al., 2012) Hewitt, 2005 Kaab et al, 2012 Hewitt, 2007 Cogley et al, 2012 Hewitt, 2011 (Farinotti et al. 2015) Gardelle et al, Mayer,2006, Overall Picture of 2012 Mayer,2010 Tien Shan the State of Glaciers in Himalaya (Yao, et al. 2012, NCC)

Dobhal et al.,2004 Bali et al.,2011 Bali et al.,2011 Kumar et al.,2008 (Ren et al, 1998) (Nie et al., 2010) Kargel et al., 2011 (Ren et al., 2004)(Qin Dahe, 2000) (Yao et al., 2007)

Bajracharyaand Mool, 2010 Melt water source of discharge in UIB

Highly generalized diagram showing origin of two distinct types of melt water in UIB

• Melt water from high- altitude catchments in UIB, is a mixture of • glacial melts, • melts from seasonal snows that fall in the winter and spring prior to the melting season, • and summer snowfall that takes place concurrently

(Mukhopadhyay and Khan, 2014, JH) Seasonal Runoff Variability in Astore Basin

100 0 (mm) 90 2

80 4 Precipitation

70 6

• Seasonal shifting in stream- 60 flow by early snow melt 8 • Runoff is decreased in glacier 50 melting period due to cooling 10

in Summer Temperatures

C) O

5) Snow Cover Area (%) Area Cover Snow 5) 40 12

m (

30 14 Temperature ( Temperature Snow-melt Snow-melt Glacier-melt

Discharge 20 21% + 22% 16 Glacier-melt 33% 10 18

Base Flow + Rain (24%) 0 20 Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Mean Daily Discharge Mean Daily Precipitation Mean Snow Cover Area Mean Temperature Mean Discharge 1990-1994 Mean Discharge 2006-2010 (Farhan S, et al., 2014, Clim Dyn)

Contribution per component of discharge in UIB

Contribution per component (%) Basin Period Glacier Snow Rain Base Reference melt melt runoff flow Hunza 2002-2004 33 50 17 (Shrestha et al., 2015) Hunza 1966-1010 74 26 (Mukhopadhyay and Khan, 2014a) Hunza 1998-2007 80.6 9.6 1.3 8.5 (Lutz et al., 2014) Upper Indus 1998-2007 40.6 21.8 26.8 10.8 (Lutz et al., 2014) Shigar 1970-2010 35 43 22 (Mukhopadhyay and Khan, 2014b) Kharmong 2000-2010 22 44 (Mukhopadhyay and Khan, 2014a)

Gilgit 1980-2010 68 32 (Mukhopadhyay and Khan, 2014a) Gilgit 1998-2007 54.2 26 12.3 7.5 (Lutz et al., 2014) Astore 2000-2010 18 50 (Mukhopadhyay and Khan, 2014a) Astore 22 33 21 24 (Farhan S, et al., 2014) Key points of Pakistan water tower

• Atmosphere: westerly dominant

• Huge amount of glaciers and their stable status- Karakoram Anomaly

• Importance of melting water—from glaciers and snow cover Outline Introduction：Upper Indus River Basin 1 (UIB) —Pakistan water Tower

2 Collaborative researches about the water tower

3 Solid status storage of Pakistan water tower — glacier ice volume CAS Strategic Priority Programme (B) -TIMI Tibet Multiple Sphere Interaction & Their Environment and Resource significance

Westerly (Upper indus) Gla mass balance Gla hydo Lake water Pre spatial Transite Basin water balance Gla mass balance Gla hydo Gla-lake dynamic Lake water Pre spatial Basin water balance Mosoon region Gla mass balance Gla hydo Gla-lake dynamic Lake water Pre spatial Basin water balance The Hydrological Consequences of Westerly Vapor Transform on water cycle-Process in TPE Region

2 1 3

Indus River Source Upper Indus Basin (China) 7 (Pakistan) 6 Lake flux 4 AWS Lake and Discharge 5 Glacier Isotope Network Glacier Name: Selin Co Basin Intensified Basin 1 - Gharko; 2 - Barpu; 3 - Sachen;4 - Kunsha; 5 - Jiagang; Study cross-section 6 - Geladandong; 7 - Qiangtang1#; 8 - Puruogangri May 2009, Delegation of ITPCAS visited SUPARCO Karachi headquarters and Islamabad office，the following intention and contents of cooperation were determined:

 Glacier and snow change  Atmospheric environment  Hydrology and water resource  Disaster monitoring  Remote sensing data receiving and acquisition  Construction of environmental comprehensive observation station  Scientific joint expedition  Paleoclimatic environment research  Short term training for Young scientists  Education for Master/PhD candidate June 2010, Delegation of ITPCAS visited SUPARCO Karachi headquarters again. Detailed research contents and working plan for future cooperation were discussed under the TPE framework, MoU was signed:

 10 aspects of cooperation contents were determined  Specified the responsible experts on both sides  Have a detailed schedule  Identify education programs  Detailed field expedition plan January 2017, Delegation of ITPCAS visited SUPARCO Islamabad office. Future cooperation and TPE center establishment were fully discussed:

 Worked out detailed action plans for 2017 and for the next 5 years (2017-2021)  Set the agenda for the establishment of a TPE Centre in Islamabad  Expansion of joint observing network  Building of a Gilgit Flagship station for glacier, atmospheric, hydrological and ecological Expedition 2015 Route

Expedition 2016 Route

Expedition 2017 Route

...... Field work in Pakistan 2011-2014 Pakistan Expedition Pakistan Expedition Establish of observation network

Pakistan Part Glacier Mass Barpu, Gharko, Balance Sachen Precipitation-5, Water Stable River -4, Lake-5, Isotope Glacier melt stream-3 Discharge sites-4, Hydrological AWS-4 observation Rain Gauge-9

Water Stable Precipitation-1 Isotope River -1 Discharge sites-1 Hydrological AWS-1 observation Rain Gauge-1 China Part-Shiquan River Observation of hydrology and meteorology

Runoff observation

AWS Sachen (3538m) Gharko (3827m)

Precipitation Sachen(3538m) Sachen (4170m) Sachen (4709m) Gharko (2928m) Gharko (3455m) Gharko (4610m) gradient 2. Glacier Mass Balance Observation Location of observed glaciers Sachen Glacier (Astore)

(4709m)

(3538m)

(3448m)

(4170m)

Discharge measurement AWS Rain gauge Ablation Stakes Snow pit Lake level gauge

(2784m)

Barpu Glacier (Hunza)

(3827m)

(2928m) (4610m)

(3455m)

(3568m) Gharko Glacier (Gilgit) 3. Isotope and POPs observation in Pakistan

Sust Gilgit

Islamabad

Lahore

Karachi

Westerly

Karachi

Indian Monsoon 1. Glacier inventory of Pakistan

• First national glacier inventory in Pakistan • Characteristic: – Newest data base: Landsat images during 2013 to 2015, 30m resolution – Improved method: parameter of debris covered part: LST, Slope, Band Ratio parameter of clean ice part: NDSI, LWM, NDVI – Names of glacier: 181 names of 263 glaciers which are more than 5 km2 by using topographic map and field survey 2. Astore Basin Glacier changes during 1973-2013

2 15 25 35

Rescaled Graph Glacier Area Change (% year) / (% Change Area Glacier Glacier Size (Km2)

Only Small Glacier in Astore basin represented both growing and shrinking during 1973-2013 3. Glacial-hydrological characteristic Weak positive glacier mass Contribution from glacier and snow balance during 2003 to 2008 in melt on discharge is more than 75% Westerly region

+rain

Precipitation by westerly (mainly in winter and spring) explain the variance of runoff (80%)

(Farhan et al., Clim Dyna, 2015) Outline Introduction：Upper Indus River Basin 1 (UIB) —Pakistan water Tower

2 Collaborative researches about the water tower

3 Solid status storage of Pakistan water tower — glacier ice volume Calculate Methods

• GlabTop 휏 퐻 = 휌푔푓푠𝑖푛(훼) H-Ice thickness (m) τ-Basal shear stress (Pa) ρ-density of the ice (900kg/m3) g-acceleration due to gravity (9.81 m/s2) f-shape factor (0.8) α-surface slope (degrees) Δh≤1.6km, 휏 = 0.005 + 1.598훥ℎ − 0.435훥ℎ2 Δh＞1.6km, τ=1.5×105Pa

• Zhu 퐻 = 푎훽푏 H-Ice thickness (m) β-surface slope (%), β=tan(α) Calculate Methods

GlabTop

(Paul et al., 2012)

(Frey et al., 2014) Methods-Data acquisition

• Glacier outline: Glacier Inventory of Pakistan • Glacier surface elevation : • ICESat (2003-2008), point data, (Kääb et al., 2015) • ASTER DEM (2000-2016), dh/dt, (Brun et al., 2017) • Glacier elevation: SRTM DEM (2000) • Ice thickness: • Field survey: • Gravity meter, BGIG, 1974 • GPR, as in 1974, 2017 • Model calculation: using SRTM DEM data Batura

Barpu

Gharko

Sachen Sachen Barpu Gharko Batura Results-Barpu Results-Sachen

GlabTop Thickness

Zhu Thickness

Thickness Difference

(HGlabTop-HZhu) Results-Batura

GlabTop2 Thickness

Basin Glacier Ice thick (m) Gla area (km2) Gla Vol (km3)

Shiquan 232 0-63 32.045 0.27

Gaerzangbu 373 0-196 143.69 5.82

UIB upperstream 2910 0-281 3199.55 105.123

Hunza 2323 0-450 6361.72 302.55

Shigar 839 0-428 5741.99 270.30

Shyok 4077 0-458 8905.62 549.38

Gilgit 1710 0-307 2355.76 63.49

Astore 411 0-290 420.31 16.97

Shingo 777 0-315 883.91 35.66

UIB downstream 941 0-289 551.34 18.81 total 1368.37 Request from hydrologist to remote sensing：

High altitude precipitation！ Thanks！ Highlight Introduction：Upper Indus River Basin 1 (UIB) —Pakistan water Tower

2 Collaborative researches about the water tower

3 Solid status storage of Pakistan water tower — glacier ice volume

4 Future Plan Synthesis Scientific Expedition for China-Pakistan Economic Corridor （CPEC）

农业： 2016年8月30日在伊斯兰堡举行的CPEC 首脑会议期间的制定的2025-2030年长期计划。该计划包括对生计、水资源、牲畜、人与人之间的通信和财务事宜的管理。 TPE – 亚洲水塔

• 巴基斯坦70%的水力发电和80%的生活用水皆依靠印度河-“巴基斯坦水塔” • 叶尔羌河是塔里木河最长支流，下游为我国第四大灌溉区-“塔里木水塔” 考察路线慕士塔格站-红旗拉普-Sost- Gilgit- Islamabad 叶尔羌流域

路线1 路线2

自动气象站莎车新增雨量筒栏杆国家气象站水文站慕士塔格站

已有雨量筒叶城县

塔什库尔干协尔布斯阿勒玛勒克卡群

墩也尔

贝勒迭尔

布侯依吉拉甫

红其拉甫热斯喀木

岔河口阿孜尕拉

麻扎兵站伊立克 10 N 0 50 km 印度河上游流域 Khunjerab ① Khuhjerab-Sost Sost

② Sost-Gulmit Passu Gl. Ghulkin Gl. Gulmit 东西路线（POPs) Phander Lake Gulmit-Parri ③ Barpu Gl. 南北路线（POPs) Hoper Chira 湖泊观测 Ghako Gl. 冰川水文观测雨量筒设置 Parri 冻土观测 ① 河流悬移质、推移质观测 ④ Parri-Thakot

Sachen Gl.

Deosai Plateau Sheosar Lake

Thakot

⑤ Thakot-Tarbela

Tarbela Lake

N 0 40 km TPE Program • Center in SUPARCO Muztaga TAJIKISTAN station

• Flag Station in Gilgit CHINA • Cross frame work

Khunjerab AFGHANISTAN

Gilgit station

PAKISTAN

iNDIA Establishment of Gilgit Flag Station

Passu

Pander

Gilgit

Nanga Parbat Deosai Framework of observation

Gilgit