The Chinese Air Force Evolving Concepts, Roles, and Capabilities EDITED BY RICHARD P. HALLION, ROGER CLIFF, and PHILLIP C. SAUNDERS CENTER FOR THE STUDy OF CHINESE Military Affairs INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES National DEFENSE UNIvERSITy Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs (CSCMA) The Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs (China Center) was established as an integral part of the National Defense University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies on March 1, 2000, pursuant to Section 914 of the 2000 National Defense Authorization Act. The China Center’s mission is to serve as a national focal point and resource center for multidisciplinary research and analytic exchanges on the national goals and strategic posture of the People’s Republic of China and to focus on China’s ability to develop, field, and deploy an effective military instrument in support of its national strategic objectives. Cover photo: China’s fifth-generation J–20 Stealth Fighter preparing for flight in Chengdu, Sichuan Province. (Photo by CCP/Color China Photo/AP Images) The Chinese Air Force Evolving Concepts, Roles, and Capabilities The Chinese Air Force Evolving Concepts, Roles, and Capabilities EDITED BY RICHARD P. HALLION, ROGER CLIFF, and PHILLIP C. SAUNDERS PUBLISHED BY NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY PRESS FOR THE CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF CHINESE MILITARY Affairs INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES WASHINGTON, D.C. 2012 Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Defense or any other agency of the Federal Government. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The Chinese Air Force : evolving concepts, roles, and capabilities / edited by Richard P. Hallion, Roger Cliff, and Phillip C. Saunders. p. cm. Includes index. 1. China. Zhongguo ren min jie fang jun. Kong jun. 2. Air power--China. I. Hallion, Richard. II. Cliff, Roger. III. Saunders, Phillip C. (Phillip Charles), 1966- UG635.C6C4835 2012 358.400951--dc23 2012034862 First printing, August 2012 NDU Press publications are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office. For ordering information, call (202) 512-1800 or write to the: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. For the U.S. Government On-line Bookstore, go to: http://bookstore.gpo.gov For current publications of the Institute for National Strategic Studies, consult the National Defense University Web site at: http://www.ndu.edu/inss To the Memory of Major General John R. “Johnny” Alison, USAFR (Ret.) 1912–2011 An American patriot whose love for his country and affection for its people were matched by his affection for the Chinese people, for whom he fought strenuously and well during the Second World War Contents Foreword ............................................. xi David A. Deptula Acknowledgments ................................... xiii Introduction ........................................ xvii Richard P. Hallion I: CONCEPTS Chapter 1 The Concept of Airpower: Its Emergence, Evolution, and Future ............................................ 1 Forrest E. Morgan Chapter 2 China’s Quest for Joint Aerospace Power: Concepts and Future Aspirations ........................ 33 Mark A. Stokes Chapter 3 The PLAAF’s Evolving Influence within the PLA and upon National Policy .................................. 71 Xiaoming Zhang II: ORGANIZATIon, LEADERSHIP, AND DoctRINE Chapter 4 The Organizational Structure of the PLAAF .............. 95 Kenneth W. Allen vii viii CONTENTS Chapter 5 The Missions of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force ... 133 Murray Scot Tanner Chapter 6 The Development of the PLAAF’s Doctrine .............. 149 Roger Cliff Chapter 7 The PLAAF and the Integration of Air and Space Power ... 165 Kevin Pollpeter III: EQUIPMENT, PERsonnel, AND EDUCATIon / TRAINING Chapter 8 Equipping the PLAAF: The Long March to Modernity .... 191 David Shlapak Chapter 9 Meeting the Challenge of the Upcoming PLAAF Leadership Reshuffle ................................. 213 You Ji Chapter 10 Education and Training in the PLAAF .................. 235 Kevin Lanzit IV: INDUstRIES AND MILITARY IMplICATIons Chapter 11 China’s Aviation Industry: Past, Present, and Future ...... 257 Shen Pin-Luen Chapter 12 China’s Quest for Advanced Aviation Technologies ....... 271 Phillip C. Saunders and Joshua K. Wiseman CONTENTS ix Chapter 13 The Employment of Airpower in the Taiwan Strait ........ 325 Hsi-hua Cheng Chapter 14 The U.S.-China Military Balance Seen in a Three-Game Framework ............................ 347 David Frelinger and Jessica Hart About the Contributors ............................... 371 Index .............................................. 377 Foreword In my assignment as Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, I had the responsibility of monitoring air forces around the world. There is no question which country has made the greatest strides in developing its airpower capabil- ity. Over the last two decades, China’s air force, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), has transformed itself from a large, poorly-trained force oper- ating aircraft based on 1950s Soviet designs to a leaner and meaner force flying advanced Russian and indigenously produced fourth-generation fighters. This remarkable transformation is still a work in progress, but China has made up a lot of ground in a short time. China’s civilian and military leaders grasped the centrality of airpower in modern warfare as early as the mid 1970s, a lesson reinforced by the stunning success of the U.S.-led coalition during the first Gulf War. They set the goal of building the PLAAF into a world class, high-technology air force capable of pre- vailing against sophisticated adversaries in regional conflicts. China’s expanding airpower capability has had a profound impact on the Asia-Pacific region (and beyond), causing countries to reassess their own air force modernization needs. China’s successful 2011 test flight of a stealth fighter prototype, the J–20, demonstrates just how ambitious its airpower goals have become. The United States and Russia are the only other countries deploying or developing true fifth-generation fighter aircraft; Beijing is now seeking to match the capabili- ties of the two most established aerospace powers. In addition to stealth fighter development, the Chinese aviation industry already produces two fourth-gen- eration fighters (the indigenous J–10 and China’s Su–27 copy, the J–11) which are roughly equivalent to the aircraft that make up the bulk of the existing U.S., Russian, and Western air force fleets. China has also successfully test flown a fourth-generation fighter (J–15) that can be launched from an aircraft carrier. More sophisticated combat aircraft are just one component of the expan- sion of Chinese airpower. Chinese military planners are focused on development of antiaccess/area denial capabilities with an eye toward negating any potential threat to their dominance in the Western Pacific. Chinese efforts to develop an “informatized” military include a focus on integrating and networking aero- space systems, using airborne early warning and control aircraft together with space-based assets. China plans to field a large fleet of remotely piloted aircraft xi xii FOREWORD (RPAs) with both combat and surveillance missions. The deployment of RPAs will enhance and extend the range of China’s area denial capabilities, challeng- ing the ability of other nations’ forces to operate in the Western Pacific. China’s Second Artillery Corps now possesses a large arsenal of increas- ingly accurate cruise and ballistic missiles that could strike air bases in Japan and islands throughout the Pacific, and target U.S. aircraft carriers. Nonstealthy air- craft attempting to operate near China will be confronted with an increasingly capable land-based air defense network. PLAAF training has advanced in parallel with technological improvements, resulting in a better-educated and more pro- fessional cadre of officers and enlisted personnel. Even in an era of constrained resources, China’s comprehensive expansion of its airpower capability should be a matter of great concern to U.S. civilian and military leaders and to U.S. friends and allies in Asia, particularly Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. I was honored and privileged to take part in the October 2010 conference in Taipei on the Chinese Air Force, which was jointly organized by Taiwan’s Council for Advanced Policy Studies, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the U.S. National Defense University, and the RAND Corporation. The organiz- ers did a superb job in assembling a first-rate group of international experts on airpower and the Chinese military. The conference papers were discussed and debated at length as experts sought to assess Chinese air force current and future capabilities and the trajectory of the air balance across the Taiwan Strait and in the Western Pacific. The current volume contains substantially revised versions of the papers presented at the conference, benefiting greatly from conference dis- cussions and careful editing by Richard Hallion, Roger Cliff, and Phillip Saun- ders. Together, the chapters offer a complete picture of where the Chinese air force is today, where it has come from, and most importantly, where it is headed. This book should be of keen interest to policymakers, senior military