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Hearing on China's Military Reforms and Modernization: Implications for the United States Hearing Before the U.S.-China Economic HEARING ON CHINA'S MILITARY REFORMS AND MODERNIZATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES HEARING BEFORE THE U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ONE HUNDRED FIFTEENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2018 Printed for use of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission Available via the World Wide Web: www.uscc.gov UNITED STATES-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION WASHINGTON: 2018 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ROBIN CLEVELAND, CHAIRMAN CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW, VICE CHAIRMAN Commissioners: HON. CARTE P. GOODWIN HON. JAMES TALENT DR. GLENN HUBBARD DR. KATHERINE C. TOBIN HON. DENNIS C. SHEA MICHAEL R. WESSEL HON. JONATHAN N. STIVERS DR. LARRY M. WORTZEL The Commission was created on October 30, 2000 by the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Public Law No. 106-398, 114 STAT. 1654A-334 (2000) (codified at 22 U.S.C. § 7002 (2001), as amended by the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for 2002 § 645 (regarding employment status of staff) & § 648 (regarding changing annual report due date from March to June), Public Law No. 107-67, 115 STAT. 514 (Nov. 12, 2001); as amended by Division P of the “Consolidated Appropriations Resolution, 2003,” Pub L. No. 108-7 (Feb. 20, 2003) (regarding Commission name change, terms of Commissioners, and responsibilities of the Commission); as amended by Public Law No. 109- 108 (H.R. 2862) (Nov. 22, 2005) (regarding responsibilities of Commission and applicability of FACA); as amended by Division J of the “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008,” Public Law Nol. 110-161 (December 26, 2007) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission, and changing the Annual Report due date from June to December); as amended by the Carl Levin and Howard P. “Buck” McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015, P.L. 113-291 (December 19, 2014) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission). The Commission’s full charter is available at www.uscc.gov. ii March 1, 2018 The Honorable Orrin Hatch President Pro Tempore of the Senate, Washington, DC 20510 The Honorable Paul Ryan Speaker of the House of Representatives, Washington, DC 20515 Dear Senator Hatch and Speaker Ryan: We are pleased to notify you of the Commission’s February 15, 2018 public hearing on “China’s Military Reforms and Modernization: Implications for the United States.” The Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Pub. L. No. 106-398 (as amended by the Carl Levin and Howard P. “Buck” McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015 § 1259b, Pub. L. No. 113-291) provides the basis for this hearing. At the hearing, the Commissioners received testimony from the following witnesses: Cortez Cooper, Senior International/Defense Researcher, RAND Corporation; John Costello, Cybersecurity Policy Fellow, New America Foundation; Kevin McCauley, Independent Analyst; Ben Lowsen, China Advisor, U.S. Air Force; James Holmes, Ph.D., J.C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy, U.S. Naval War College; Brendan Mulvaney, Ph.D., Director, China Aerospace Studies Institute; Michael S. Chase, Ph.D., Senior Political Scientist, RAND Corporation; Tate Nurkin, Executive Director, Strategic Assessments, Jane’s by IHS Markit; Jacqueline N. Deal, Ph.D., President and CEO, Long Term Strategy Group; and Kathleen Hicks, Ph.D., Senior Vice President, Henry A. Kissinger Chair, and Director of the International Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies. The hearing provided insight into how China’s ongoing military reform efforts and President Xi’s vision for achieving the “China Dream” are shaping the People’s Liberation Army’s long-term defense planning, weapons development, and acquisition programs. The hearing specifically assessed the political and security drivers shaping China’s military modernization efforts; the reformed Central Military Commission’s role in coordinating modernization priorities with the military services; the development of forces capable of conducting joint operations; and implications for the United States. We note that the full transcript of the hearing is posted to the Commission’s website. The prepared statements and supporting documents submitted by the participants are now posted on the Commission’s website at www.uscc.gov. Members and the staff of the Commission are available to provide more detailed briefings. We hope these materials will be helpful to the Congress as it continues its assessment of U.S.-China relations and their impact on U.S. security. The Commission will examine in greater depth these issues, and the other issues enumerated in its statutory mandate, in its 2018 Annual Report that will be submitted to Congress in November 2018. Should you have any questions regarding this hearing or any other issue related to China, please do not hesitate to have your staff contact our Congressional Liaison, Leslie Tisdale, at 202-624-1496 or [email protected]. Sincerely yours, Robin Cleveland Carolyn Bartholomew Chairman Vice Chairman cc: Members of Congress and Congressional Staff iii CONTENTS THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2018 CHINA'S MILITARY REFORMS AND MODERNIZATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES Opening Statement of Vice Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew (Hearing Co-Chair) .........................................................................................................6 Prepared Statement ...........................................................................................................8 Opening Statement of Senator James Talent (Hearing Co-Chair) .........................................................................................................9 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................10 Panel I: National-Level Military Modernization Priorities and Force Enablers Panel I Introduction by Vice Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................11 Statement of Cortez Cooper Senior International/Defense Researcher, RAND Corporation ......................................12 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................15 Statement of John Costello Cybersecurity Policy Fellow, New America Foundation ...............................................32 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................36 Statement of Kevin McCauley Independent Analyst .......................................................................................................46 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................48 Panel I: Question and Answer............................................................................................68 Panel II: Service-Level Military Modernization Priorities Panel II Introduction by Senator James Talent (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................87 Statement of Ben Lowsen China Advisor, U.S. Air Force........................................................................................89 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................91 Statement of James Holmes Ph.D., J.C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy, U.S. Naval War College ....................103 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................105 Statement of Brendan Mulvaney, Ph.D. Director, China Aerospace Studies Institute .................................................................119 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................123 Statement of Michael S. Chase, Ph.D. Senior Political Scientist, RAND Corporation .............................................................135 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................138 Panel II: Question and Answer ........................................................................................152 iv Panel III: PLA Modernization and Implications for the United States and Beyond Panel III Introduction by Vice Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew (Hearing Co-Chair) .....................................................................................................176 Statement of Panelist Tate Nurkin Executive Director, Strategic Assessments, Jane’s by IHS Markit ..............................177 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................180 Statement of Jacqueline N. Deal, Ph.D. President and CEO, Long Term Strategy Group ..........................................................197 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................200 Statement of Kathleen Hicks, Ph.D. Senior Vice President, Henry A. Kissinger Chair, and Director of the International Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies ................................210 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................213 Panel
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