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Deepening Russia-Turkey Relations: Report No SUMMER SCHOOLS EXPERT COMMENTARIES GUEST LECTURES SCENARIOS NTERNATIONAL RELATIONS TABLES I ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING FOREIGN POLICY DISCUSSIONS REFERENCE BOOKS DIALOGUE ETWORK SCIENCE WORKING PAPERS DUCATION N PROJECTS EPORTS OUND E R NALYSIS AND FORECASTING R A PROJECTS ECURITY OMPETITIONS ORGANIZATIONS C ONFERENCES DUCATION NTERNATIONAL ACTIVITY C I E S DUCATION FOREIGN POLICY TALENT POOL E POOL EPORTS POLITICS R GLOBAL POLITICS ETWORK CENARIOS NTERNATIONAL I N IVIL OCIETY INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS S C S LOBAL RELATIONS G TALENT REFERENCE BOOKS INTERNATIONAL RUSSIAN DUCATION ORGANIZATIONS SECURITY INTERNATIONALE AFFAIRS COUNCIL SUMMER RELATIONS SCHOOLS POLICY ROUND GUEST LECTURES OCIETY TABLES ISCUSSIONS REPORTS IGRATION S PARTNERSHIP OREIGN NTERNATIONAL IBRARY OADMAPS XPERT R F E I ONFERENCES D IPLOMACY M L GLOBAL NTERNATIONAL MIGRATION COMMENTARIES IVIL C I ACTIVITY ILATERAL NTHOLOGIES POOL D C SCIENCE REPORTS BOOKS ECURITY ISCUSSIONS INTERNSHIPS B A D WEBSITE IPLOMACY PARTNERSHIP INTERNSHIPS S TALENT DIALOGUE ANTHOLOGIES GLOBAL GLOBAL D FORECASTING POLICY SCIENCE ONFERENCES C POLICY EFERENCE NALYSIS SCIENCE IGRATION A IBRARY OADMAPS EBSITE OREIGN R IPLOMACY CENARIOS F R L M OREIGN D S W NALYSIS AND FORECASTING F DIALOGUE INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS A AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS NETWORK CLUB MEETINGS DIALOGUE DIPLOMACY PROJECTS DIALOGUE IVIL OCIETY UMMER C S EBSITE ECURITY REPORTW COMMENTARIES EBSITE S IGRATION PROJECTS LECTURES S SCHOOLS EXPERT COMMENTARIES FOREIGN POLICY W M RELATIONS XPERT IPLOMACY E D EDUCATION UEST G ARTNERSHIP ETWORK SCIENCE NTERNSHIPS ANALYSIS AND I N P IBRARY FORECASTING L CIVIL SOCIETY ONFERENCES ECURITY S C ANTHOLOGIES DEEPENINGGLOBAL RUSSIA-TURKEY POLITICS RELATIONS CIENCE S ILATERAL CLUB MEETINGS COMPETITIONS B USINESS ROUND TABLES EPORTS WORKING PAPERS RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL (RIAC) ROADMAPS IGRATION ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING PAPERS 8, 4th Dobryninsky Pereulok, 119049, Moscow, Russia R B ARTNERSHIP SCENARIOS P LOBAL Tel.: +7 (495) 225 6283 REFERENCE BOOKS OMPETITIONS IBRARY ORKING L ARTNERSHIP M Fax: +7 (495) 225 6284 NTERNSHIPS G C W I IBRARY EXPERT COMMENTARIES P L E–mail: [email protected] SCIENCE COMMENTARIES 41 / 2019 www.russiancouncil.ru INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS ORGANIZATIONS REFERENCE BOOKS EDUCATION ISCUSSIONS ISCUSSIONS LOBAL D OADMAPS SUMMER SCHOOLS XPERT OMPETITIONS IVIL UEST LECTURES OCIETY INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS G ILATERAL C S C D G R MEETINGS E ANTHOLOGIES B RELATIONS WORKING PAPERS NTHOLOGIES UMMER LOBAL POLITICS ONFERENCES G LUB CIENCE NTERNATIONAL S SCHOOLS C S I A FOREIGN POLICY TALENT POOL REFERENCE BOOKS C RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL CENTER FOR STRATEGIC RESEARCH OF THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY (SAM) MOSCOW 2019 Russian International Affairs Council The Center for Strategic Research of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey (SAM) Editorial board Editor-in-Chief: I.S. Ivanov, RAS Corresponding Member, Dr. of History Authors: From Russia: Andrey Kortunov, Ph.D. in History; Irina Kasimova; Nigyar Masumova, Ph.D. in Economics; Ruslan Mamedov; Gregory Lukyanov; Pavel Shlykov, Ph.D. in History; Egor Pak, Ph.D. in Economics From Turkey: Emre Erşen, Ph.D. in Political Science; Turhan Dilmaç; Seçkin Köstem, Ph.D. in Political Science; Mitat Çelikpala, Ph.D.in Political Science; Altay Atly, Ph.D. in Political Science Copy Editors: T.A. Makhmutov, Ph.D. in Political Science; R.Sh. Mamedov, O.A. Pylova Deepening Russia-Turkey Relations: Report No. 41/2019 / [Andrey Kortunov et al.; Emre Erşen et al.]; У25 [Igor Ivanov (Editor-in-Chief)]; Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). – Moscow: NPMP RIAC, 2019. – 120 p. – The names of authors are listed of title page. ISBN 978-5-6042567-2-5 This report is the result of a collaborative study performed by the RIAC and the Center for Strategic Re- search (SAM) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey. SAM publishes academic jour- nal “Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs” (Turkey), an English language journal on foreign af- fairs. The materials included in this report were initially published in a special issue of PERCEPTIONS. The paper presents the views of Russian and Turkish experts in the field of International Relations on the relationship between the two sides with a focus on key areas for cooperation. The report provides an analysis of bilateral economic ties between the two countries, strategic challenges in the Middle East, regional issues related to the Black Sea and the Caucasus and the development of a Eurasian transport corridor. Cover photo credits: bottom left - Sputnik/Vladimir Astapkovich/Kremlin via REUTERS/Pixstream bottom right – PAO Gazprom The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of RIAC. The full text is published on RIAC’s website. You can download the report or leave a comment via this direct link – russiancouncil.ru/en/report41 © Drafting, design. NPMP RIAC, 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction: Deepening Turkey-Russia Relations 4 Turkey and Russia: From Shared History to Today’s Cooperation 7 An Ambassador of Peace and Good Will: Andrey Karlov 9 The Political Economy of Turkish-Russian Relations: Dynamics of Asymmetric Interdependence 11 Russia and Turkey: Resetting Economic Partnership 28 Russia and Turkey: Approaches to Regional Security in the Middle East 41 Turkey’s Black Sea Predicament: Challenging or Accommodating Russia? 56 Russian-Turkish Relations in the Wider Black Sea Region: Cooperation and Competition 71 Turkey as a Eurasian Transport Hub: Prospects for Inter-Regional Partnership 88 Turkey and the EAEU in Regional Transport Systems: Rivals or Partners? 101 About the Authors 115 Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) 116 Center for Strategic Research of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey (SAM) 117 www.russiancouncil.ru 3 DEEPENING TURKEY-RUSSIA RELATIONS Introduction: Deepening Turkey-Russia Relations Andrey KORTUNOV1 & Emre ERŞEN2 On 16 December 2016, the Center for Strategic Research (SAM) and the Rus- sian International Affairs Council (RIAC) jointly organized a one-day conference in Ankara titled “Deepening Turkey-Russia Relations.” Leading experts from Tur- key and Russia discussed the political, economic and social dimensions of rela- tions between the two countries. The opening speech of the conference was de- livered by His Excellency Andrey G. Karlov, Ambassador of the Russian Federa- tion to the Republic of Turkey, who highlighted the long diplomatic history and potential fields of cooperation between Turkey and Russia. Only a few days after this event, a horrendous act of violence in Ankara caused the death of Ambassador Karlov, which came as a painful shock to both the Turkish and Russian public. At the time, some argued that the assassination would lead to a new crisis in Turkish-Russian relations. On the contrary, however, the incident drew the two countries even closer to each other. Turkish and Rus- sian authorities worked together to investigate the heinous terrorist attack, and political and economic relations between Ankara and Moscow have continued to improve in a very remarkable way in the 2017-2018 period. Only one day after the assassination of Ambassador Karlov, the foreign minis- ters of Turkey, Russia and Iran came together in Moscow and confirmed their determination to launch a new peace process to resolve the Syrian crisis. To this day, this trilateral strategic dialogue has been the most effective instrument to deal with the difficult and extremely complicated challenges posed by the chaos in Syria. In fact, Turkey’s two cross-border military operations in Syria- Opera- tion Euphrates Shield and Operation Olive Branch- were both conducted suc- cessfully as a result of the close dialogue between Ankara, Moscow and Tehran. In addition to their strategic partnership in Syria, Turkey and Russia have also developed ties in the field of economic cooperation. Their two ongoing mega en- ergy projects- the Akkuyu nuclear power plant and Turkish Stream natural gas pipeline- are clear indications of the deepening economic relations between the two countries. The bilateral trade volume and number of Russian tourists visit- ing Turkey also continue to rise steadily. 1 Prof., Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), Moscow, Russian Federation, E-mail: [email protected]. E-mail: [email protected] 2 Assoc. Prof., Marmara University, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Istanbul, E-mail: [email protected]. 4 Report No. 41 / 2019 INTRODUCTION Most recently, Turkey has decided to purchase the Russian S-400 missile de- fense system. When the deal is finalized, Turkey will become the first NATO country to host such an advanced Russian military system on its territories. Al- though there are still a number of issues that need to be resolved between the two countries, the strategic rapprochement between Ankara and Moscow is ex- pected to continue in the near future. The goal of this issue, which is dedicated to the memory of Ambassador Karlov, is to explore the various aspects of the present, ongoing rapprochement pro- cess between Turkey and Russia. Considering that the main dilemma of Turkish- Russian relations in the last quarter century has been to achieve a genuine stra- tegic partnership in the presence of significant regional disagreements, it is im- portant to discuss the prospects and challenges lying ahead
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