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Turkey's Nationalist Course: Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the U.S. Army

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Turkey's Nationalist Course: Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the U.S. Army TURKEY’S NATIONALIST COURSE Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the U.S. Army Stephen J. Flanagan, F. Stephen Larrabee, Anika Binnendijk, Katherine Costello, Shira Efron, James Hoobler, Magdalena Kirchner, Jeffrey Martini, Alireza Nader, Peter A. Wilson C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2589 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0141-0 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Rouhani, Putin, and Erdogan: Tolga Bozoglu/AP. Erdogan Stoltenberg: AP. Istanbul: Kivanc Turkalp/Getty Images/iStockphoto. Cover design by Rick Penn-Kraus Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a project entitled Turkey’s Volatile Dynamics—Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the U.S. Army, sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-3/5/7, U.S. Army. The purpose of the project was to analyze trends in Turkish internal, foreign, and defense policies and assess their implications for U.S. defense strategy and force planning. This research was conducted within RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the United States Army. RAND operates under a “Federal-Wide Assurance” (FWA00003425) and com- plies with the Code of Federal Regulations for the Protection of Human Subjects Under United States Law (45 CFR 46), also known as “the Common Rule,” as well as with the implementation guidance set forth in U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Instruc- tion 3216.02. As applicable, this compliance includes reviews and approvals by RAND’s Institutional Review Board (the Human Subjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. The views of sources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not represent the official policy or position of DoD or the U.S. Government. iii Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures, Tables, and Boxes ......................................................................... ix Summary .............................................................................................. xi Acknowledgments .................................................................................xxix Abbreviations ...................................................................................... xxxi CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 Stephen J. Flanagan Managing a Troubled Partnership ................................................................... 1 Methodology ........................................................................................... 2 Organization of This Report ......................................................................... 3 CHAPTER TWO Turkey at a Crossroads ............................................................................... 5 Stephen J. Flanagan, Magdalena Kirchner, and F. Stephen Larrabee Deepening Authoritarianism and Instability ....................................................... 5 An Enduring Battle of Two Visions .................................................................. 6 The AKP and the “New Turkey” .................................................................... 9 The Authoritarian Drift Deepens Under Growing Nationalism ................................12 A Short-Lived Opening to the Kurds .............................................................. 22 Implications for Civil-Military Relations and Military Capabilities ............................25 Old and New Security Threats at Home ...........................................................32 Foreign and Defense Policy: From “Zero Problems” to “Precious Loneliness” ............... 36 The 2018 and 2019 Elections and Turkey’s Future Course ......................................39 CHAPTER THREE Turkey’s Relations with Iran and Iraq: Enduring Rivals or a New Modus Vivendi? ....49 Alireza Nader Iranian Interests Fueling Rivalry and Cooperation with Turkey ............................... 50 Views from Baghdad and Erbil on Relations with Turkey .......................................57 v vi Turkey’s Nationalist Course: Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the U.S. Army Turkey’s Opening to the Kurdistan Regional Government ..................................... 60 Turkey’s Future Relations with Iran and Iraq .....................................................62 Conclusion and Implications for the United States .............................................. 64 CHAPTER FOUR Turkey and the Arab World: Mixed Views and Interests .....................................67 Jeffrey Martini Arab State Perspectives of Turkey ...................................................................67 Interest Convergence Between Turkey and the Arab States .................................... 68 Interest Divergence Between Turkey and the Arab States ........................................70 Special Cases of Egypt and Qatar ...................................................................72 Future Outlook for the Arab States’ Relationships with Turkey ................................75 Conclusion and Implications for the United States ...............................................78 CHAPTER FIVE Wary Partners: The Future of Israeli-Turkish Relations .....................................81 Shira Efron A History of Ups and Downs in Bilateral Relations ..............................................82 Normalization Achieved After a Six-Year Process ................................................ 86 Post-Reconciliation Status of Israeli-Turkish Relations ...........................................89 Israeli-Turkish Ties Face Formidable Challenges ................................................ 100 Conclusion and Implications for the United States ............................................ 104 CHAPTER SIX The Russian-Turkish Bilateral Relationship: Managing Differences in an Uneasy Partnership ........................................................................... 107 Anika Binnendijk Historical Context .................................................................................. 108 A Lasting Partnership? .............................................................................. 110 Economic Ties ...................................................................................... 111 Russian Efforts to Undermine Western Institutions ........................................... 116 Consolidation of Domestic Power and Mutual Support for Authoritarianism .............. 118 Uneasy Partnership in the Black Sea .............................................................. 123 Middle East Ambitions ............................................................................. 126 Conclusion and Implications for the United States ............................................. 129 CHAPTER SEVEN Turkey’s Relations with the Caucasus and Central Asia: Unrealized Ambitions ...... 133 James Hoobler Domestic Forces Driving Regional Policy ....................................................... 135 Turkey and the Caucasus ........................................................................... 138 Turkey and Central Asia ........................................................................... 145 Conclusion and Implications for the United States ............................................. 148 Contents vii CHAPTER EIGHT Turkey’s Relations with Europe, the European Union, and NATO: Reaching an Inflection Point ........................................................................... 151 Magdalena Kirchner and Stephen J. Flanagan Relations with the European Union .............................................................. 152 NATO-Turkey Relations ........................................................................... 167 Conclusion and Implications for U.S. and Allied Interests .................................... 175 CHAPTER NINE Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Partnership and the U.S. Army ....................... 179 Stephen J. Flanagan and Peter A. Wilson Turkey’s Uncertain Trajectory ....................................................................
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