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Policy Notes for the Trump Notes Administration the Washington Institute for Near East Policy ■ 2018 ■ Pn55
TRANSITION 2017 POLICYPOLICY NOTES FOR THE TRUMP NOTES ADMINISTRATION THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY ■ 2018 ■ PN55 TUNISIAN FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN IRAQ AND SYRIA AARON Y. ZELIN Tunisia should really open its embassy in Raqqa, not Damascus. That’s where its people are. —ABU KHALED, AN ISLAMIC STATE SPY1 THE PAST FEW YEARS have seen rising interest in foreign fighting as a general phenomenon and in fighters joining jihadist groups in particular. Tunisians figure disproportionately among the foreign jihadist cohort, yet their ubiquity is somewhat confounding. Why Tunisians? This study aims to bring clarity to this question by examining Tunisia’s foreign fighter networks mobilized to Syria and Iraq since 2011, when insurgencies shook those two countries amid the broader Arab Spring uprisings. ©2018 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY ■ NO. 30 ■ JANUARY 2017 AARON Y. ZELIN Along with seeking to determine what motivated Evolution of Tunisian Participation these individuals, it endeavors to reconcile estimated in the Iraq Jihad numbers of Tunisians who actually traveled, who were killed in theater, and who returned home. The find- Although the involvement of Tunisians in foreign jihad ings are based on a wide range of sources in multiple campaigns predates the 2003 Iraq war, that conflict languages as well as data sets created by the author inspired a new generation of recruits whose effects since 2011. Another way of framing the discussion will lasted into the aftermath of the Tunisian revolution. center on Tunisians who participated in the jihad fol- These individuals fought in groups such as Abu Musab lowing the 2003 U.S. -
Jihadism in Africa Local Causes, Regional Expansion, International Alliances
SWP Research Paper Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Guido Steinberg and Annette Weber (Eds.) Jihadism in Africa Local Causes, Regional Expansion, International Alliances RP 5 June 2015 Berlin All rights reserved. © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2015 SWP Research Papers are peer reviewed by senior researchers and the execu- tive board of the Institute. They express exclusively the personal views of the authors. SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Ludwigkirchplatz 34 10719 Berlin Germany Phone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-100 www.swp-berlin.org [email protected] ISSN 1863-1053 Translation by Meredith Dale (Updated English version of SWP-Studie 7/2015) Table of Contents 5 Problems and Recommendations 7 Jihadism in Africa: An Introduction Guido Steinberg and Annette Weber 13 Al-Shabaab: Youth without God Annette Weber 31 Libya: A Jihadist Growth Market Wolfram Lacher 51 Going “Glocal”: Jihadism in Algeria and Tunisia Isabelle Werenfels 69 Spreading Local Roots: AQIM and Its Offshoots in the Sahara Wolfram Lacher and Guido Steinberg 85 Boko Haram: Threat to Nigeria and Its Northern Neighbours Moritz Hütte, Guido Steinberg and Annette Weber 99 Conclusions and Recommendations Guido Steinberg and Annette Weber 103 Appendix 103 Abbreviations 104 The Authors Problems and Recommendations Jihadism in Africa: Local Causes, Regional Expansion, International Alliances The transnational terrorism of the twenty-first century feeds on local and regional conflicts, without which most terrorist groups would never have appeared in the first place. That is the case in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Syria and Iraq, as well as in North and West Africa and the Horn of Africa. -
Tunisia Fragil Democracy
German Council on Foreign Relations No. 2 January 2020 – first published in REPORT December 2018 Edited Volume Tunisia’s Fragile Democracy Decentralization, Institution-Building and the Development of Marginalized Regions – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe Edited by Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid 2 No. 2 | January 2020 – first published in December 2018 Tunisia’s Fragile Democracy REPORT The following papers were written by participants of the workshop “Promotion of Think Tank Work on the Development of Marginalized Regions and Institution-Building in Tunisia,” organized by the German Council on Foreign Relations’ Middle East and North Africa Program in the summer and fall of 2018 in cooperation with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in Tunis. The workshop is part of the program’s project on the promotion of think tank work in the Middle East and North Africa, which aims to strengthen the scientific and technical capacities of civil society actors in the region and the EU who are engaged in research and policy analysis and advice. It is realized with the support of the German Federal Foreign Office and the Institute for Foreign Cultural Relations (ifa e.V.). The content of the papers does not reflect the opinion of the DGAP. Responsibility for the information and views expressed herein lies entirely with the authors. The editorial closing date was October 28, 2018. Authors: Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, Mohamed Lamine Bel Haj Amor, Arwa Ben Ahmed, Elhem Ben Aicha, Ahmed Ben Nejma, Laroussi Bettaieb, Zied Boussen, Giulia Cimini, Rim Dhaouadi, Jihene Ferchichi, Darius Görgen, Oumaima Jegham, Tahar Kechrid, Maha Kouas, Anne Martin, and Ragnar Weilandt Edited by Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid No. -
One Big #Lie from the Arab Spring to the Islamic State
One big #lie From the Arab Spring to the Islamic State. Post Arab Spring institutional failures causes frustration, leading up to expressions of aggression, wherefore the Islamic State provides space to utter it. Master thesis by Beitske Meinema (s1910337) [email protected] MA International Relations: Global Conflict in the Modern Era Leiden University Supervisor: Dr. S. Bellucci 2018 ABSTRACT The year 2010 marks the beginning of a series of protests and uprisings in North Africa, which sparked a revolution that Western media would soon refer to as “The Arab Spring Uprisings”. The protests are mostly conducted by the youth of the MENA region who are discontent with the government. This generation realizes that due to unemployment, high inflation, poverty, human rights abuses and corruption they are caught in a vacuum, with no bright future with progress and evolution of their country and blame this on the Arab dictators. Tunisia and Morocco both experienced the Arab Spring differently in terms of violence by the state, but in both countries the protests are effective and big changes are promised. In Tunisia the Ben Ali Presidency is overthrown, while in Morocco King Mohammed VI remains king. Also, in both countries the desired democracy is established and democratic elections take place. However, the circumstances do not really change the civil lives. Unemployment remains a problem, police violence still occurs, the freedom and human rights are still violated and the rule of law does not change the situation in favour of the community. The frustrated youth seeks new ways to clear the void in their lives. -
Extremism & Counter-Extremism Overview Radicalization And
Tunisia: Extremism & Counter-Extremism On March 6, 2020, two suicide bombers attacked a security post near the U.S. embassy in Tunis. The explosion killed one policeman and injured six others. No Americans were killed in the attack. According to police, the assailants used homemade explosives. No group has claimed responsibility, but the country has struggled since the Arab Spring to prevent nationals from joining ISIS and al-Qaeda. (Sources: CNN [1], New York Times [2], Al Jazeera [3]) Overview After the 2011 Tunisian Revolution, the country experienced a surge in extremist violence at the hands of al-Qaeda and ISIS-affiliated groups. With the help of international and regional partners, Tunisia has taken strides to re-structure its security apparatus and has launched a number of programs designed to prevent violent extremism. Despite these measures, Islamist groups continue to operate and to threaten Tunisia’s stability as it transitions to democracy. (Sources: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [4], U.S. Department of State [5]) Increased civil liberties have enabled Islamist groups within the country to recruit more freely and poor socio-economic conditions have left many Tunisians receptive to radical ideas. Thousands of Tunisians have filled the ranks of terrorist groups across the Middle East and North Africa. On July 10, 2015, U.N. experts estimated that approximately 5,500 Tunisians had traveled to Syria to fight, primarily alongside ISIS, in that country’s civil war. By December 2015, this figure is estimated to have climbed to 6,000. The Tunisian government recently indicated that there are as many as 1,500 Tunisian fighters in Libya. -
“Global Terrorism Index: 2015.” Institute for Economics and Peace
MEASURING AND UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM Quantifying Peace and its Benefits The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) is an independent, non-partisan, non-profit think tank dedicated to shifting the world’s focus to peace as a positive, achievable, and tangible measure of human well-being and progress. IEP achieves its goals by developing new conceptual frameworks to define peacefulness; providing metrics for measuring peace; and uncovering the relationships between business, peace and prosperity as well as promoting a better understanding of the cultural, economic and political factors that create peace. IEP has offices in Sydney, New York and Mexico City. It works with a wide range of partners internationally and collaborates with intergovernmental organizations on measuring and communicating the economic value of peace. For more information visit www.economicsandpeace.org SPECIAL THANKS to the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) headquartered at the University of Maryland for their cooperation on this study and for providing the Institute for Economics and Peace with their Global Terrorism Database (GTD) datasets on terrorism. CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 ABOUT THE GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 6 1 RESULTS 9 Global Terrorism Index map 10 Terrorist incidents map 12 Ten countries most impacted by terrorism 20 Terrorism compared to other forms of violence 30 2 TRENDS 33 Changes in the patterns and characteristics of terrorist activity 34 Terrorist group trends 38 Foreign fighters in Iraq -
Protect Education from Attack GCPEA
Global Coalition to Protect Education from Attack GCPEA EDUCATION UNDER ATTACK Global Coalition to Protect GCPEA Education from Attack This study is published by the Global Coalition to Protect Education from Attack (GCPEA), an inter-agency coalition formed in 2010 by organizations working in the fields of education in emergencies and conflict-affected contexts, higher education, protection, international human rights and humanitarian law who were concerned about ongoing attacks on educational institutions, their students and staff in countries affected by conflict and insecurity. GCPEA is a coalition of organizations that includes: the Council for Assisting Refugee Academics (CARA), Human Rights Watch, the Institute of International Education, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Protect Education in Insecurity and Conflict (PEIC, a programme of Education Above All), Save the Children, the Scholars at Risk Network, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). GCPEA is a project of the Tides Center, a non-profit 501(c)(3) organization. This study is the result of independent external research commissioned by GCPEA. It is independent of the individual member organizations of the Steering Committee of GCPEA and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Steering Committee member organizations. CONTRIBUTORS Project team leader/Chief editor: Mark Richmond GCPEA would like to thank Julia Freedson, Vernor Muñoz and Lead researcher: -
Boko Haram's Fluctuating Affiliations
Boko Haram Beyond the Headlines: Analyses of Africa’s Enduring Insurgency Editor: Jacob Zenn ZENN BOKO HARAM BEYOND THE HEADLINES MAY 2018 CHAPTER 6: Boko Haram’s Fluctuating Affiliations: Future Prospects for Realignment with al-Qa`ida By Jacob Zenn Introduction The group commonly known as “Boko Haram”613 has gained international notoriety in recent years. First, it claimed to have ‘enslaved’ more than 200 schoolgirls in Chibok, Nigeria, in May 2014, which led to an international outcry and the founding of a global social media movement calling for the girls’ release, #BringBackOurGirls. The movement finally pressured the Nigerian government to negotiate for the release of more than 100 of the girls in 2016 and 2017. While Boko Haram was holding these girls captive, it also merged with the Islamic State in March 2015. The Islamic State’s acceptance of Boko Haram leader Abu Bakr Shekau’s pledge to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi led to the renaming of Boko Haram from its former ofcial title, Jama`at Ahl al-Sunna li- Da`wa wa-l-Jihad,614 to Islamic State in West Africa Province (al-Dawla al-Islamiya fi Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiya), or ISWAP, as well as the Islamic State’s upgrading of the new ISWAP’s media operations.615 Despite that the Islamic State has also “commanded the world’s attention” in recent years, including for its merger with Boko Haram, out of the media glare al-Qa`ida has, according to terrorism scholar Bruce Hofman, “been quietly rebuilding and fortifying its various branches.”616 Indeed, prior to 2015, the nature and extent of Boko Haram’s -
Strategy for Countering Terrorism
CONTEST The United Kingdom’s Strategy for Countering Terrorism June 2018 Cm 9608 CONTEST The United Kingdom’s Strategy for Countering Terrorism Presented to Parliament by the Secretary of State for the Home Department by Command of Her Majesty June 2018 Cm 9608 © Crown copyright 2018 This publication is licensed under the terms Any enquiries regarding this publication of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except should be sent to us at where otherwise stated. To view this licence, [email protected] visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open- government-licence/version/3 ISBN 978-1-5286-0209-9 CCS0218929798 06/18 Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain Printed on paper containing 75% recycled permission from the copyright holders fibre content minimum concerned. Printed in the UK by the APS Group on This publication is available at behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty’s www.gov.uk/government/publications Stationery Office 1 Contents Foreword by the Prime Minister 3 Foreword by the Home Secretary 5 Executive Summary 7 Introduction 13 Part 1: Strategic context 15 The threat from terrorism 15 Strategic factors 23 Part 2: Our Response 25 CONTEST: the UK’s response to terrorism 25 Prevent 31 Pursue 43 Protect 53 Prepare 63 Overseas 70 Cross-cutting responses 78 Part 3: Implementation 83 Governance and oversight 83 Funding 86 Performance 87 Annex: Roles and responsibilities 89 2 CONTEST: The United Kingdom’s Strategy for Countering Terrorism Foreword by the Prime Minister 3 Foreword by the Prime Minister Last year’s horrific attacks on London and Manchester served as a stark reminder of the continued threat that terrorism poses, both to our people and to our way of life. -
Boko Haram: from Local Grievances to Violent Insurgency
DIIS REPORT 2015: 21 BOKO HARAM FROM LOCAL GRIEVANCES TO VIOLENT INSURGENCY Table of Contents Executive Summary 5 Abbreviations 7 Introduction 9 Structure of the Report 12 Methodology 13 Terminology 14 Who are Boko Haram and What do They Want? 16 Historical Background and Ideological Development 18 Organisational Development 21 Local Grievance and Recruitment 24 Internal Contestation 24 External Connections to Al Qaeda and Islamic State 25 Boko Haram’s connections to Mali 27 Boko Haram as a Nigerian Problem 31 The Nigerian Hesitation towards International Intervention 32 A Counter-Insurgency Trapped in Violence 33 This report is written by Signe Cold-Ravnkilde and Sine Plambech and published by New President – New Hope? 34 DIIS as part of the Defence and Security Studies. Refugees, Food Shortages and the Human Cost of Boko Haram 37 Signe Cold-Ravnkilde and Sine Plambech are researchers at DIIS. Forced Displacements and Asylum in EU 39 Famine and Food Shortages 39 DIIS · Danish Institute for International Studies From Victims to Perpetrators. The Role of Women in Boko Haram 43 Østbanegade 117, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark #BringBackOurGirls and Abduction of Women 44 Tel: +45 32 69 87 87 Female Suicide Bombers – Desperation or Strength? 46 E-mail: [email protected] The Million Woman March 48 www.diis.dk Engaging the Neighbours. Niger, Cameroon and Chad 51 Layout: Lone Ravnkilde & Viki Rachlitz The Multinational Joint Task Force 52 Printed in Denmark by Eurographic Danmark Niger. Between State Fragility and Military Armament 53 Cameroon. Kidnappings, Recruitment and Rising Poverty 55 Chad. An Emerging Regional Power? 56 ISBN 978-87-7605-787-9 (print) ISBN 978-87-7605-786-2 (pdf) Boko Haram & the West 61 DIIS publications can be downloaded free of charge or ordered from www.diis.dk Conclusion and Recommendations 67 © Copenhagen 2015, the authors and DIIS Bibliography 70 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report responds to the question of how we might approach and understand the Boko Haram insurgency. -
Turkey's Nationalist Course: Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the U.S. Army
TURKEY’S NATIONALIST COURSE Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the U.S. Army Stephen J. Flanagan, F. Stephen Larrabee, Anika Binnendijk, Katherine Costello, Shira Efron, James Hoobler, Magdalena Kirchner, Jeffrey Martini, Alireza Nader, Peter A. Wilson C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2589 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0141-0 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Rouhani, Putin, and Erdogan: Tolga Bozoglu/AP. Erdogan Stoltenberg: AP. Istanbul: Kivanc Turkalp/Getty Images/iStockphoto. Cover design by Rick Penn-Kraus Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. -
FROM LOCAL GRIEVANCES to VIOLENT INSURGENCY Table of Contents
DIIS REPORT 2015: 21 BOKO HARAM FROM LOCAL GRIEVANCES TO VIOLENT INSURGENCY Table of Contents Executive Summary 5 Abbreviations 7 Introduction 9 Structure of the Report 12 Methodology 13 Terminology 14 Who are Boko Haram and What do They Want? 16 Historical Background and Ideological Development 18 Organisational Development 21 Local Grievance and Recruitment 24 Internal Contestation 24 External Connections to Al Qaeda and Islamic State 25 Boko Haram’s connections to Mali 27 Boko Haram as a Nigerian Problem 31 The Nigerian Hesitation towards International Intervention 32 A Counter-Insurgency Trapped in Violence 33 This report is written by Signe Cold-Ravnkilde and Sine Plambech and published by New President – New Hope? 34 DIIS as part of the Defence and Security Studies. Refugees, Food Shortages and the Human Cost of Boko Haram 37 Signe Cold-Ravnkilde and Sine Plambech are researchers at DIIS. Forced Displacements and Asylum in EU 39 Famine and Food Shortages 39 DIIS · Danish Institute for International Studies From Victims to Perpetrators. The Role of Women in Boko Haram 43 Østbanegade 117, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark #BringBackOurGirls and Abduction of Women 44 Tel: +45 32 69 87 87 Female Suicide Bombers – Desperation or Strength? 46 E-mail: [email protected] The Million Woman March 48 www.diis.dk Engaging the Neighbours. Niger, Cameroon and Chad 51 Layout: Lone Ravnkilde & Viki Rachlitz The Multinational Joint Task Force 52 Printed in Denmark by Eurographic Danmark Niger. Between State Fragility and Military Armament 53 Cameroon. Kidnappings, Recruitment and Rising Poverty 55 Chad. An Emerging Regional Power? 56 ISBN 978-87-7605-787-9 (print) ISBN 978-87-7605-786-2 (pdf) Boko Haram & the West 61 DIIS publications can be downloaded free of charge or ordered from www.diis.dk Conclusion and Recommendations 67 © Copenhagen 2015, the authors and DIIS Bibliography 70 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report responds to the question of how we might approach and understand the Boko Haram insurgency.