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PERSPECTIVES on TERRORISM Volume 9, Issue 6 Table of Contents Welcome from the Editor 1 I ISSN 2334-3745 Volume IX, Issue 6 December 2015 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 9, Issue 6 Table of Contents Welcome from the Editor 1 I. Articles The Evolution of Al Qaeda’s Global Network and Al Qaeda Core’s Position Within it: A Network Analysis 2 by Victoria Barber Radical Groups’ Social Pressure Towards Defectors: The Case of Right-Wing Extremist Groups 36 by Daniel Koehler Religion, Democracy and Terrorism 51 by Nilay Saiya 20 Years Later: A Look Back at the Unabomber Manifesto 60 by Brett A. Barnett II. Research Notes Re-Examining the Involvement of Converts in Islamist Terrorism: A Comparison of the U.S. and U.K. 72 by Sam Mullins Terrorist Practices: Sketching a New Research Agenda 85 by Joel Day Eyewitness Accounts from Recent Defectors from Islamic State: Why They Joined, What They Saw, Why They Quit 95 by Anne Speckhard and Ahmet S. Yayla III. Resources Bibliography: Homegrown Terrorism and Radicalisation 119 Compiled and selected by Judith Tinnes IV. Book Reviews Counterterrorism Bookshelf: 40 Books on Terrorism & Counter-Terrorism-Related Subjects 154 Reviewed by Joshua Sinai ISSN 2334-3745 i December 2015 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 9, Issue 6 V. Notes from the Editor A Word of Appreciation for Our External Peer Reviewers 167 from the Editorial Team TRI Award for Best PhD Thesis 2015: Call for Submissions 169 TRI National/Regional TRI Networks (Partial) Inventory of Ph.D. Theses in the Making 170 by Alex P. Schmid (Network Coordinator) Job Announcement: Open Rank Faculty Search at CTSS, UMass Lowell 175 About Perspectives on Terrorism 177 ISSN 2334-3745 ii December 2015 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 9, Issue 6 Welcome from the Editor Dear Reader, We are pleased to announce the release of Volume IX, Issue 6 (December 2015) of Perspectives on Terrorism at www.terrorismanalysts.com. Our free online journal is a joint publication of the Terrorism Research Initiative (TRI), headquartered in Vienna (Austria), and the Center for Terrorism and Security Studies (CTSS), headquartered at the Lowell Campus of the University of Massachusetts (United States). Now completing its ninth year, Perspectives on Terrorism has over 5,800 regular subscribers and many more occasional readers and visitors worldwide. The Articles of its six annual issues are fully peer-reviewed by external referees while its Research Notes, Policy Notes and other content are subject to internal editorial review. This issue begins with analysis by Victoria Barber on the relationship between al Qaeda core and other identifiable groups within the so-called “global jihadist movement.” She finds that many groups’ ideological affinity seems to give way to more worldly concerns, and globalization to regional concerns, indicating limited evidence of a truly cohesive global network. Then Dan Koehler looks at how right-wing extremist groups react – emotionally and strategically – when individuals defect from the group. In the next article, Nilay Saiya describes how states that provide religious security for their citizens undercut the ideological narratives disseminated by religious militants (that their faith is under attack), and thus dampening the resonance of their appeal for violent action. Finally, Brett Barnett examines how and why the manifesto of “Unabomber” Theodore Kaczynski has resonated with some radical environmentalists. Our Research Notes section begins with a piece by Sam Mullins examining how religious converts compare with non-converts in the U.S. and U.K. with regard to involvement in terrorist activities 1980-2013. Next, Joel Day proposes an innovative mixed methods approach to the study of terrorist cultural, ritual and community practices. And in the final piece of this section, Anne Speckhard and Ahmet Yayla provide some preliminary results of their Islamic State Interviews Project, based here on a sample of thirteen Syrian IS defectors who spoke about life inside the “Islamic State” and now warn others not to join what they gradually came to see as a totally disappointing, ruthless and un-Islamic organization. The Resources section features an extensive bibliography by Judith Tinnes on homegrown terrorism and radicalization, and 40 short book reviews by Joshua Sinai. And the issue concludes with a sincere word of thanks to our external peer reviewers; an announcement for the annual TRI Award for Best Thesis; an inventory of Ph.D. theses underway by members of the TRI National/Regional Networks; and a faculty job announcement from the CTSS at UMass Lowell. This issue of the journal was prepared by the co-editor of Perspectives on Terrorism, Prof. James Forest at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, who offers a special thank you to our new Editorial Assistant Jared Mello and to CTSS Co-Op Scholar Danielle Thibodeau for their considerable assistance. The next issue (February 2016) will be prepared in the European offices of the Terrorism Research Initiative (TRI) by Prof. em. Alex P. Schmid. ISSN 2334-3745 1 December 2015 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 9, Issue 6 I. Articles The Evolution of Al Qaeda’s Global Network and Al Qaeda Core’s Position Within it: A Network Analysis by Victoria Barber Abstract There has been much discussion in recent decades regarding the nature of the threat posed by terrorism. In doing so, many have cited the existence of a vast and amorphous global terrorist network, with Al Qaeda at the helm. But is that model a truly accurate one? By using social network analysis to map and track Al Qaeda’s global network from 1996 to 2013, this article seeks to determine whether the global movement is as cohesive and ideologically-driven as it has been made out to be. Ultimately, it finds that not only is that model no longer reflective of Al Qaeda’s global network, it likely never was. In the end, ideological affinity seems to give way to more worldly concerns, and globalization to regional concerns, leaving the idea of a global movement lacking. Keywords: Al-Qaeda; networks; influence Introduction here has been much debate in recent years over the nature of the threat posed by terrorism in the 21st century. A prominent question within this debate concerns how the terrorist threat is structured: Is it within traditional groups and their affiliates or individuals taking their own initiative, rendering the Ttraditional group structure irrelevant?[1] The impact of this answer will dictate strategies for intervention. For example, should the threat lie in individual self-motivated actors, the often-used strategy of decapitation is of limited use. While there are certainly arguments to be made for the threat posed by the rise of lone wolves[2] and their origins in more familiar movements within the counter-terrorism field,[3] this article will focus on established groups, as its primary concern is in relationships between them. Such relationships have changed in recent decades, as advances in technology and more affordable travel have made communication and coordination much easier.[4] This has given rise to transnational terrorist movements and allowed these established groups to move beyond the national and regional struggles they had engaged in before.[5] As part of this transition, many groups moved from the traditional hierarchical organization observed in non-state armed groups in the past and toward a more horizontal structure,[6] leading researchers to study terrorist organizations as networks.[7] There is much debate over the relative merits of these organizational structures. On the one hand, size can be a limiting factor for a networked structure, as large networks can be difficult to control and coordinate.[8] However, becoming networked can make a group more resilient to intervention and can therefore be an attractive choice for clandestine organizations.[9] The rise of Al Qaeda provides an excellent example of this transition and the globalization of the terrorist threat.[10] Arguably the group with the greatest reach and influence in the last several decades, Al Qaeda Core began as a small and highly selective group that arose out of the Soviet-Afghan War.[11] They maintained this status throughout the 1990s, quietly influencing uprisings throughout the Middle East and biding their time until they entered the world stage with the September 11th attacks.[12] By September 12th, 2001, Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden were household names, and Al Qaeda Core was in the position to ISSN 2334-3745 2 December 2015 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 9, Issue 6 foster other militant groups on a much broader scale. It was seen as the hallmark of a new kind of terrorist threat, one that was no longer confined to a specific conflict or geographic area and could pose a legitimate threat to even the most powerful states.[13] The most common contemporary image of Al Qaeda is that of a global movement with Al Qaeda Core as the vanguard for a network of affiliated groups that could be utilized within the movement, but did not require the same maintenance and control as a hierarchical organization.[14] This affiliation could be anything from sending members to Al Qaeda affiliated training camps or publishing statements in support of Al Qaeda to formally pledging one’s group to Al Qaeda Core. What emerged was a structure that could loosely be described as a set of concentric circles, with Al Qaeda Core at the center, immediately surrounded by the lucky few groups that were allowed to call themselves its regional branches, followed by affiliate groups who benefitted from Al Qaeda in some way, and finally the independent
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