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Final Thesis Copy (From Adil Zaman) THE TROUBLED PAKISTAN-US RELATIONSHIP: A DIPLOMATIC HISTORY, 1947-2012 Adil Zaman Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Politics University of East Anglia, School of Politics, Philosophy, Language and Communication Studies. Norwich, December 2014 ©This copy of the thesis has been supplied on condition that anyone who consults it is understood to recognise that its copyright rests with the author and that use of any information derived there from must be in accordance with current UK Copyright Law. In addition, any quotation or extract must include full attribution. Abstract The bilateral relationship between the US and Pakistan has been highly significant for the foreign policies of both countries. Since 1947 Pakistan has sought US support in its quest for regional security and the US repeatedly turned to Pakistan as an irreplaceable strategic ally in its quest for global power and security. Despite this the relationship became fractious and increasingly distrustful. Many accounts describe the relationship and analyse events which have shaped it but fail to satisfactorily understand why it became so difficult, particularly from the Pakistani perspective. This thesis seeks to bring a fresh perspective by analysing the whole of the relationship as a cumulative process shaped not just by events but by reciprocal behaviour and expectation. It is a diplomatic history examining episodes of the relationship since 1947 through existing primary and secondary sources but also contributing new material from 20 field-work interviews conducted in Pakistan with military, government, media and academic actors. The study finds an underlying contradiction in the relationship in which fundamental national interests have never converged sufficiently for sustained co- operation. As such relations have relied on transactional opportunism. Co- operation has depended on temporary wilful blindness by the US which cannot be maintained beyond episodes of crisis. Pakistan uses its geostrategic assets as a reverse influence on the US but consistently hedges its strategies against anticipated abandonment when the crisis episode has passed. Through this has evolved a cumulative legacy of mutual negative expectation and mistrust which has become deeply ingrained in the relationship. The study also finds that the strategic utility of the relationship has favoured the US but that Pakistan’s reverse influence has grown, making it more difficult for Washington to abandon the relationship it finds so frustrating. ii Acknowledgements IN THE NAME OF ALLAH (GOD), THE MOST GRACIOUS AND THE MOST MERCIFUL. The first and foremost, I am very grateful to Allah for giving me the strength, courage, peace and blessings to complete this study. I want to show my greatest gratitude to my supervisors, Dr. Mike Bowker and Dr. Lee Marsden, for their outstanding support throughout my time at the University of East Anglia as a PhD student. Their comments on draft chapters enabled me to correct many errors which otherwise, would be quite difficult for me to detect. They both guided me wonderfully and critically. I am very thankful for the knowledge they imparted to me, their understanding and unfailing support as my supervisors. I have greatly benefitted from their supervision. I am very much grateful to the Higher Education Commission which provided me a scholarship for my studies in UK. I am also very much obliged to my mother university, the University of Balochistan, Pakistan, where I teach in the Department of Political Science, for allowing me to study abroad with a long study leave. Without their academic cooperation it would not have been possible for me to complete my PhD study in UK. My deepest gratitude goes to Prof. Dr. Masoom Yasinzai, ex. Vice chancellor University of Balochistan and later Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad, who provided me comfortable accommodation in Islamabad when I was on field-work and was facing financial hardship. I am also thankful to the leading academics and political analysts and experts, particularly Dr. Mahmood Ali Shah, Dr. Naudir Bakht, Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, Dr. Tahir Amin, Dr. Noman Sattar, Ambassador (Retired) Tariq Fatemi, Ambassador (Retired) Ali Sarwar Naqvi, Ambassador (Retired) Ayaz Wazir, Roedad Khan, Rasul Bux Rais, Brig. (Retired) Agha Ahmed Gul, Gen. (Retired) Asad Durranni, and Syed Fasih Iqbal who sadly died in January 2013. My special thanks go to my fellow students and others for my long discussions with them, most notably Bill Edmonds, who also offered help with my English. My lovely gatherings with Bill and his wife Katy will always be remembered. iii My profound gratitude goes to my parents. Without their encouragements, patience, love and prayers, this study would not be possible. Thanks for your constant prayers for completing my thesis. I certainly would not be where I am today without your nurture, guidance, love and care through my life. You are and continue to be one of my life’s biggest blessing from Allah. In addition, I am also indebted to my younger brother Imran Khan Kasi for his love and support. I am so lucky to have a brother like you and InshaAllah we will be best friends forever. Finally, I extended my biggest thanks to my wife, Maimoona Kasi, my daughter Khushrooh Kasi and my son Aryan Khan Kasi who accompanied me in this long journey. They sacrificed their dreams for the achievement of mine to be with me at the most critical times of my study, through financial hardship and two serious accidents for my son. In short I can say that this thesis is their achievement too. iv Table of Contents Abstract ii Acknowledgements iii Table of Contents v List of Abbreviations vii INTRODUCTION 1 Historical Summary 2 Literature Review 4 The Central Argument 12 Research Design and Methodology 12 Structure of the Thesis 13 CHAPTER 1: FORGING THE COLD WAR PARTNERSHIP, 1947 -1961 15 1.1 Introduction 15 1.2 The Security Challenges of Independence and Partition 16 1.3 The Process of Alliance Building 23 1.4 The Consequences of the Relationship with the US 38 1.5 Implications for the Relationship 41 CHAPTER 2: DECLINE AND DISAPPOINTMENT: INDIA, CHINA, ISLAM AND THE BOMB, 1961-1979 44 2.1 Introduction 44 2.2 India: The US Disappoints Pakistan 44 2.3 China: Pakistan Disappoints the US 51 2.4 War with India 54 2.5 Civil War and Secret Diplomacy 59 2.6 Civil War 60 2.7 Secret Diplomacy with China, and Nixon’s Opportunism 64 2.8 Pakistan Diversifies: Islam and the Bomb 66 2.9 US Involvement in Bhutto’s Fall 71 2.10 Carter, Zia and a Low Point in Relations 76 2.11 Strategic Outcomes for the US and Pakistan 79 2.12 Implications for the Relationship 82 CHAPTER 3: AFGHANISTAN: COLD WAR PARTNERS AGAIN, 1979-1989 85 3.1 Introduction 85 3.2 Afghanistan 85 3.3 Carter and Zia: Peanuts 93 3.4 Reagan and Zia: Aid and the Bomb 100 3.5 Endgame 110 3.6 Strategic Outcomes for the US and Pakistan 114 3.7 Implications for the Relationship 116 v CHAPTER 4: EMBARGOS AND SANCTIONS: THE BOMB, THE TALIBAN AND HUMAN RIGHTS, 1989 – 2001 120 4.1 Introduction 120 4.2 The Nuclear Programme and the New World Order 120 4.3 Kashmir 130 4.4 Iran 132 4.5 Clinton and Benazir Bhutto: A Partial Thaw 135 4.6 After the End of the Soviet War in Afghanistan 144 4.7 The Rise of the Taliban 148 4.8 Musharraf: Another Military Coup 157 4.9 Strategic Outcomes for the US and Pakistan 158 4.10 Implications for the Relationship 163 CHAPTER 5: AFGHANISTAN RE-MAKES AND RE-BREAKS THE US-PAKISTAN RELATIONSHIP, 2001-2012 166 5.1 Introduction 166 5.2 9/11: Musharraf, “a Leader of Courage and Vision” 166 5.3 Post 9/11: Disappointment and Double-Dealing 177 5.4 Pakistan’s Problems with the Northern Alliance 180 5.5 Pakistan and Terrorism: Sponsor and Victim 184 5.6 The Issue of Nuclear Proliferation 195 5.7 India and the US 197 5.8 Obama and the “Af-Pak Strategy” 199 5.9 The Issue of Nuclear Security 202 5.10 Kashmir 205 5.11 The Controversy over Drones 206 5.12 Duplicity and the Haqqani Network 213 5.13 The US-Pakistan Relationship Faces Crisis 220 5.14 Strategic Outcomes for the US and Pakistan 226 5.15 Implications for the Relationship 230 CONCLUSIONS 234 Interests 234 Opportunism, Wilful Blindness and Double Games 236 Strategic Utility of the Relationship 239 Further Research 243 Lessons from History 244 APPENDICES 247 Appendix 1: Biographies of Interviewees 247 Appendix 2: Map of Pakistan Administrative Divisions 253 Appendix 3: Map of Ethnic Groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan / Iran / India border areas 254 Appendix 4: Map of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) and North West Frontier Province/Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (NWFP/KPK) 255 Appendix 5: Map of NATO Supply routes to Afghanistan form NDN and Pakistan 256 BIBLIOGRAPHY 257 vi List of Abbreviations Af-Pak Afghanistan and Pakistan BBC British Broadcasting Corporation Brig. Brigadier ADB Asian Development Bank CARE Cooperative for American Relief Everywhere CENTO Central Treaty Organization CENTCOM US Central Command CFR Council on Foreign Relations CIA Central Intelligence Agency CNN Cable News Network COAS Chief of Army Staff Col. Colonel CRS Catholic Relief Services FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation FCR Frontier Crimes Regulation GDP Gross Domestic Product Gen. General GHQ General Head Quarters IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IB Intelligence Bureau IDPs Internally Displaced Persons IMET International Military Education and Training IMF International Monetary Fund INC Indian National Congress ISAF International Security Assistance Force ISI
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