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Ostrow Dissertation June 2017 Rev.2 Polling after Fascism: Opinion Research, Mass Society, and Democratic Fragility in the Federal Republic of Germany, 1945-1960 By Sonja Gammeltoft Ostrow Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Vanderbilt University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in History August 11, 2017 Nashville, Tennessee Approved: Helmut Walser Smith, Ph.D. David Blackbourn, Ph.D. Sarah Igo, Ph.D. Jennifer Fay, Ph.D Copyright © 2017 by Sonja Gammeltoft Ostrow All Rights Reserved TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................................................ v LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................................. viii Introduction: Polling, Democracy, and German History .......................................................................... 1 Chapter I. Transatlantic Influences, Mass Psychology, and the Making of Modern Opinion Research ................................................................................................................................................... 24 The State of the Art in Germany before 1945 ........................................................................................ 28 American Opinion Research and Lazarfeld’s Legacy ......................................................................... 39 Deciphering the Masses .................................................................................................................................. 49 II. Polling under Occupation: Bringing Public Opinion Research to Germany ............................ 63 Early Experiments ............................................................................................................................................. 67 Envisioning the Postwar World .................................................................................................................. 76 The German Challenge .................................................................................................................................... 81 Polling Germans ................................................................................................................................................. 89 Making Sense of Surveys and their Effects ........................................................................................... 101 III. The Negative Consensus: Making the Case for Opinion Research, 1948-1951 .................. 105 The Occupiers and the Institutes: Opinion Research and Democracy ..................................... 110 Allensbach, Emnid, and the Selling of Native Opinion Research ................................................ 123 Building the Profession: The 1951 Weinheim Conference ........................................................... 136 IV. From the Inside Out: The Allensbach and Emnid Polls and the Contours of West German Political Culture .................................................................................................................................. 150 The Human Work of Polling ........................................................................................................................ 153 Methods, Media, and Meinungsfreiheit ................................................................................................... 162 Deciphering the German Nation ............................................................................................................... 174 Polls and International Comparison ....................................................................................................... 182 Democrats in the Marketplace ................................................................................................................... 193 Polls and Political Culture ............................................................................................................................ 198 iii V. The Inescapable Mass? The Frankfurt School and the Group Dynamics of Opinion Formation .............................................................................................................................................................. 200 Empirical Experiments in the United States and the Return to Germany .............................. 204 The Purpose of the Group Experiment .................................................................................................. 214 Process, Methods, and Discoveries .......................................................................................................... 221 Reception and Afterlife ................................................................................................................................. 231 VI. Space for Debate: Critics of the Polls and the Stirrings of a West German Public Sphere ...................................................................................................................................................................... 239 Early Critics in the Press and Academia ................................................................................................ 241 Power and Promise: Later Critiques of the Polls ............................................................................... 247 Counter-sites of Public Opinioin Expression ...................................................................................... 261 Conclusion: Surveys, Risk Societies, and the Emergence of a Democratic Public in West Germany ....................................................................................................................................................... 277 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................................ 287 iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The process of researching and writing a dissertation is at times an intensely solitary one. And yet I simply could not have done it without the generous support of a village of people and institutions, beginning with the faculty, students, and staff of Vanderbilt University. I am indebted first and foremost to my advisor, Helmut Smith, whose elegant writing and innovative approach to historical problems has inspired me from the beginning to work harder to investigate the big questions of German history. His probing questions and critiques on countless drafts of this dissertation have improved it immeasurably. I would never have pursued this topic without the inspiring example and encouragement of Sarah Igo and her fascinating seminar on the history of the human sciences. Michael Bess has not only enthusiastically supported my research, he has provided me with a model of engaged teaching that I hope to emulate one day. Thanks go also to David Blackbourn and Jennifer Fay, for their incisive criticism. I am lucky to call the other members of my graduate school cohort (and their families) friends as well as colleagues, and I am grateful to them for their support over the course of this long journey. Jason Bates and G.L. Black, Tizoc Chavez, Michel Chresfield, Alex and Adrianne Jacobs, Ashish Koul, and Lance and Lauren Ingwersen have helped me to enjoy graduate school even in the midst of the many stressful moments. Also at Vanderbilt, Jeremy DeWaal has been a generous mentor to me, and an excellent guide to the wonders of Cologne. Cassandra Painter, Dani Picard, and Carolyn Taratko have offered helpful feedback, and the friendship of Mario Rewers and Kara Schultz has helped make graduate school life more pleasant. Friends from beyond the academic world have also been amazing supporters as I pursued my doctorate many hundreds of miles away. I am especially thankful for Kim Johnson and Ashliegh Buck, who have been like sisters to me and have believed in me more than I believed in myself. Research for this dissertation was generously funded by the International Dissertation Research Fellowship of the Social Science Research Council. This project profited immensely from the flexibility afforded by the SSRC fellowship, as well as the intellectual stimulation provided through the SSRC community and in particular the 2015 IDRF Workshop in Savannah, Georgia. I also owe thanks to the organizers and fellow attendees of the 2014 Berlin Program Summer Workshop on “Virtual Germans” at the Freie Universität Berlin and the 2015 Transatlantic Doctoral Seminar sponsored by the German Historical Institute for their thoughtful feedback on portions of my dissertation. The probing questions of attendees of the Vanderbilt German History Seminar helped me to sharpen a key chapter of the dissertation and rethink other portions of it. Benjamin Ziemann and Jonathan Wiesen both provided stimulating feedback and suggestions about key sources and approaches at different stages in the writing process. While researching this dissertation, I traveled to multiple locations within Germany and the United States. I am grateful to the archivists at the Bundesarchiv Koblenz, the fantastic Deutsches Literaturarchiv in Marbach am Neckar, the Freiburg Universitätsarchiv, the Institut für Zeitgeschichte, and the Universitätsbibliothek Frankfurt. Archivists from the Institut für Demoskopie in Allensbach shared several documents from the papers of the Neumanns upon my request. Christa Sonnenfeld at the archive of the Institut für Sozialforschung in Frankfurt
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