has been &hated K&J the Unhwsify of Chicago since 1947. NORC is commifted to conduct@ and pmmotiag social science, social policy, and survey research on topes ofimportance. The mlIection, analpis, and dissemination of data on such centralsubjectsas education, thelabor force, ihe fam& health, REPORT 198 32.Lq1 9 8 4

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a social science research center , university of chicae CONTENTS

1 Report From the Director

5 Report on Recent and Current Activities

7 Education 19 The Labor Force 29 The Family 41 Health and Health Care 53 The Social Fabric 63 Methods

71 The Corporate Report Introduction The Survey Group The Research Group The Economics Research Center The Social Policy Research Center The Cultural Pluralism Research Center

The Allensbach Institute The Administrative Group

81 NORC StaE 1983-84

87 NORC Projects: 1983-84

107 NORC Publications: 1983-84

iii

Robert T. Michael

NORC was founded in 1941 to do so- Opinion Research Center became NORC, cial research in the public interest. In the four A Social Science Research Center, not just decades since that time, the social sciences for ease of reference, however, but to ac- in general and survey research in particular commodate the fact that the organization have greatly increased their capacity to in- had outgrown its name. Though NORC form us all about attitudes and behavior in continues to do research on public opinion our society. NORC has been a principal con- concerning a wide range of social issues, the tributor to that progress, in both the methods scope of the organizationtswork has grown and the substance of social science research. to encompass not just attitudes but, increas- The progress in survey methodology ingly, behavior as well. Thus, the issues ad- and in techniques of analysis in the social dressed include, for example, both the sciences make this an intellectually exciting attitudes of Americans toward abortion and time. The pressing need to know more about the pricing practices of physicians. the behavior, attitudes, and expectations of As NORC's work has expanded on one the American people and their institutions dimension, it has become more integrated makes this a stimulating time. The uncertain- on others. This report takes as its organiz- ties of funding for surveys and analysis ing principle the topics around which through the federal government make this NORC's work has clustered in recent years. a challenging time. As the following pages illustrate, NORC has Through all of this, NORC remains developed substantial programs of research committed to conducting and to promoting in six central areas: education, the labor useful survey, social science, and social force, the family, health, society, and the policy research on topics of importance. We methodology of research. And even these see the strength of the social sciences in their six areas are far more intertwined than their inductive base, and we see, as an essential ' treatment in the pages of this report might part of NORC's mission, the fostering of in- imply. Indeed, one can see the six areas as ductive inquiry through data collection and essentially one: the study of determinants of dissemination and through use of data in so- well-being. The state and the family are pri- cial science and social policy research. mary decision makers; schools, hospitals, and other firms are important institutional NORC: 1983-84 actors in producing well-being; knowledge, NORC began the two-year period health, occupation, and earnings are aspects 1983-84 by changing its name-that is, by of well-being. NORC's five substantive pro- going from its original name to one by which grams of research, plus the advancement of it has become widely known. The National methods used to study them, are at the heart 1 of the sock1 sciences. This is as it should be We hope to establish a Methodology for an institution that for four decades has Research Center that will house ongoing been so intimately involved with these statistical projects that span the lifecycle of sciences. a survey from sampling to questionnaire The importance of these topics would construction to public use tape to analytical alone justify their choice as focuses for techniques for studying social interventions NORC's research efforts, but they were cho- or for studying longitudinal data in general. sen as well because of the experience and NORC has, for years, been a leader in sur- expertise of the staff NORC has developed vey methodology. Our new center will give over the years. NORC's work has been, and that aspect of our research more promi- continues to be, accomplished by an out- nence and potential. standing staff of experts in the technical Continued development of the com- aspects of survey research and in survey puter technology of survey research is an- management and an interdisciplinary re- other goal. In 1983-84, NORC made major search staff of economists, historians, polit- commitments to new technology, using the ical scientists, psychologists, sociologists, ever expanding capabilities of the micro statisticians, and social policy analysts. The computers, in both telephone and faee-to- integration of the efforts of this staff in sur- face interviewing. CAT1 (computer-assisted vey operations and analysis of social prob- telephone interviewing) and CADE (com- lems is seen throughout the body of this puter-assisted data entry) systems are now report. The six major areas of NORC activity in operation and plans for their expansion all involve both data collection and analysis. are underway. These systems minimize op- This integrative approach to inquiry is portunities for error and reduce the costs as- one of NORC's most attractive features. sociated with preventing it. They can also Consider a few of the subjects currently un- offer powerful assistance in survey manage- der sttidy, as described in later chapters, and ment. In sum, NORC is currently engaged notice how each can benefit from scrutiny in a systematic investment in its data from several social science disciplines and processing capabilities, an investment ex- from both theoretical and applied perspec- pected to yield good returns over the next tives: the effectiveness of Catholic schools few years. in America or of bilingual education in 1985 will see NORC move to new secondary schools; the role of an urban quarters. We will relocate to a far larger neighborhood or of an extended family net- building just a few blocks from our current work in promoting schooling, employment, location and still on The University of and health; the role of training programs in Chicago campus. Our new home has the military; the study of drug abuse, of tech- several desirable attributes in addition to its nology in medical care, of the health status greater size. In fact, one of these is a direct of adolescents in Harlem, or of the incidence outcome of its size: We will share the larger and consequences of adolescent parent- quarters with several University groups that hood in Illinois; the influence of changes in have interests complementary to those of public opinion on congressional voting pat- NORC. These include a number of smaller terns. There is a remarkably wide range of research centers from the University's Divi- important social topics under investigation sion of the Social Sciences and also the at NORC at any point in time, by a highly University's Computation Center, which skilled and dedicated staff. This rich intellec- houses and manages the University8smain- tual environment for research fosters balance frame computer. These associations should in inquiry. It is one of NORC's great further strengthen NORC's research envi- strengths. ronment and capability. Furthermore, the move will permit us to consolidate our sur- Plans for the Future vey operations in our home office. Thus, While this report features the events of while NORC will maintain a presence in the past two years, 1983 and 1984, follow- New York City, we will no longer have to ing the format of our earlier NORC: Report maintain a survey operations capability in 1981-82, it is fitting that it include as well at our office there. least some mention of plans for the near NORC's Social Policy Research Center future. will be superseded in 1985 by a new cen- # ter, the Chapin Hall Center for Children, NORC, effective in the fall of 1984, I should directed by Harold A. Richman, the current not take credit for the accomplishments of director of our existing social policy center. the past two years. NORC's management Made possible by the generosity of Chapin and research staff were ably and effectively Hall for Children, a private organization in led during most of that period by my Chicago devoted to the needs of Illinois chil- predecessor, Norman M. Bradbum, who dren since its founding in 1860, the new has since become Provost of The University center will conduct research on issues of of Chicago. policy relevance to children. It is with pride and enthusiasm that I Another collaborative effort began to undertake my new duties at NORC. This or- bear fruit in 1983-84-NORC's association ganization has an enviable histoy of intellec- with the Institut fur Demoskopie at Allens- tual and financial success in survey research. bach, West Germany, and plans are being As if to emphasize the interdisciplinary made for an increasingly active relationship character of NORC, over the past two dec- between the two survey organizations in the ades NORC has been directed by two soci- years ahead. As described in the Corporate ologists, a psychologist (twice), and a Report section of this volume, the two have political scientist, followed now by an econ- shared interests in survey methods and com- omist. 1 hope that I can represent my &is- parative social behavior. Exchanges of staff cipline in this job as well and as beneficially visits and plans for cooperative surveys en- for the organization as have my courage optimism about fulfillment of the predecessors. relationship's potential. NORC plays an important role in the Robert T. Michael infrastructure of social science research. That it has prospered for over four decades is a great credit to its staff, management, and board of trustees, and to The University of Chicago, which has stepped forward to pro- vide a helping hand at crucial times. Yet, in a financial environment in which a vast majority of its funding comes in the form of project-specific support, generally on a cost- reimbursement basis, the organization tends to have very little in flexible funds for ex- ploratory research, for staff career develop- ment, or as a hedge against periods of temporarily slow funding. It would be ex- tremely useful to NORC's long-term well- being if the organization had a small endow- ment to provide some protection against the inevitable shortfalls in funding and to pro- vide a capabii for the organization to in- itiate a few research ventures from its own resources. To this end, we expect to mount an endowment campaign in 1985. A Personal Note As a report on the past two years, the strengths of the organization and the prod- uct of the research evidenced in this volume are the results of hard work by a tremen- dously talented and devoted staff. NORC is an unusual organization: academic in its psy- che and corporate in its fiscal makeup. Its strengths come from its staff and their com- mitment to its goals. As a new director of REPORT ON RECENT AND CURRENT ACT education In 1957 the Soviets did more than gitudinal Study of the High School Class of launch a satellite. They also generated an 1972 (NLS-72) and High School and Be- American crisis of confidence and a major yond, a National Longitudinal Study for the public debate about the effectiveness of 1980s (HS&B)-both funded by NCES. American educational systems. The 1983 These projects are at once similar and publication of A Nation at Risk: The Imper- complementary. ative for Educational Reform by the National The earlier study began in 1972, when Commission on Excellence in Education both students and their environments were generated a new sense of crisis and a new under the influence of the decade just debate. Thii was presaged by annual reports closed. The later study began with the cur- of test score decline and followed by the rent decade, with its different circumstances publication of additional-and sometimes and concerns, and it encompasses two contradictory-reports, issued by the Car- groups-the high school classes of 1980 and negie Foundation for the Advancement of 1982. At the same time, the two studies Teaching, the Twentieth Century Fund, and have important things in commoni Both take others. Not since Sputnik has this country as their starting point the high school years seen its educational institutions so of the youth under study; this focus allows thoroughly questioned, criticized, doubted. analysts to examine the critical transition to There is, as the recent Commission report adulthood with its myriad choices concern- notes, a "widespread public perception that ing education, work, personal development, something is seriously remiss in our educa- and family formation. Both studies are also tional system." longitudinal, following their subjects over The merits of this charge have been time; this allows analysts to examine effects challenged, and even when the existence of of high school on those choices, and of a serious problem is conceded, its causes earlier choices on later ones. Whiie the sep- have been the subject of controversy. But arate studies offer the opportunity to track few would challenge this country's need to the progress and problems of the bih co- know more about the state of education horts they focus on-roughly, the bih co- within its borders. It is to this end that edu- horts of 1954, 1962, and 1964-the two cation research at NORC is pointed. taken together offer the added opportunity to analyze differences between and the ef- Secondary Education: fects of public policies upon groups born be- The Pivotal Point fore and after the peak of the baby boom, and thus to sort out the effects of matura- Much attention, and concern, have tion and period. been directed toward secondary education The two-cohort design of HS&B serves in the United States. High school is the last several purposes. Fi,the questionnaires educational experience shared by nearly all and tests administered to 1980 seniors were American youth. High school is the setting designed to replicate the data collected from in which the effects of elementary education the class of 1972 in NLS-72, thus support- come to light and in which plans are made ing a complete range of cohort comparisons for postsecondary education and careers. with data bracketing important Federal policy Moreover, high school is the arena in which changes. The younger cohort was added to students' preparation and performance can the HS&B design to provide the capacity to make or break these plans. study the effects of school environment and The high school experience, and its ef- individual characteristics on achievement fects on later life, are a major research fo- and other educational activities during the cus at NORC. The Education bngitudinal last two years of high school. Finally, begin- Studies group (ELS) was established at ning the longitudinal study with tenth, rather NORC in 1983 to ensure that an increas- than twelfth, graders provides the opportu- ingly complex group of projects funded by nity to study those who reach the tenth the National Center for Education Statistics grade but who decide t~ leave school before (NCES) would benefit from focus in direc- graduating. The younger HS&B cohort in- tion and efficiency in management. cludes a probability sample of 2,600 high At the heart of this work are two large school dropouts. studies of yovg people-The National bn- Though NLS-72 is the earlier project, e NORC was first involved with HS&B. NORC has been the prime contractor for the study since its inception in 1978, responsi- ble for the planning and development of the project and conducting the baseline survey and testing of nearly 60,000 students in 1980, and the biennial followup surveys since that time. In 1983-84, NORC con- ducted the second followup of more than 30,000 members of the original sample and began work on the third followup. The core of HS&B is test and interview data from this large sample over a period of four years. Thii core has been enhanced by numerous supplements, covering special populations and issues and greatly enrich- ing the database. Among these supplements have been a survey of teachers and adminis- trators conducted with special supplemen- tal funding from the National Institute of :&n C. Jones Education, a survey of students in Depart- ment of Defense schools for the dependents NORC Senior Survey Director Calvin of military personnel stationed overseas Jones, who has served as Project Director sponsored by DoD, a survey of parents on of the ELS studies since 1982, presents a their willingness and ability to offer financial view of the wealth of information accumu- assistance for their children's postsecondary lated by the NCES Education Longitudinal education, and the collection of transcripts Studies Program to date and of the uses to from both secondary and postsecondary which this can be and sometimes has been schools attended by the sample students. put. In 1983-84 NORC added NLS-72 to its responsibilities. NLS-72 began with a sur- The Shapes of Schools and vey in 1972 of over 23,000 persons who Their Effects on Students were high school seniors in that year. They have since been followed up four more Most of the work described above has times, in 1973, 1974, 1976, and 1979. been accomplished under the aegis of NORC's involvement with NLS-72 began NORC's Survey Group, which has had pri- with an NCES contract to participate in mary responsibility for the design and exe- designing and planning for supplemental cution of the surveys and for the creation of funding of the FiFollowup Survey of the the public-use databases that result. NORC Class of '72, and to collect postsecondary Research Associates have also been active school transcripts for members of thii cohort. in the project, with James S. cobeman chief In 1984, NCES decided to sthedule among them. Coleman was Principal Inves- the next followup surveys for both HS&B tigator for HS&B in its early stages, in which and NLS-72 in the same year (1986), and capacity he contributed to the design of the to house them with a single contractor in or- study and led the initial analytic effort. Other der to increase the efficiency with which the NORC analysts have since accessed these two studies are conducted and the compara- databases, with NCES or private foundation bility of the data they produce. NORC was support, to investigate schools, students, and the successful bidder for thii contract and is the interactions between them. at work on both of these projects. The organizational and social structures One of the major responsibities of con- present in the school setting and their effects tractors on large longitudinal studies with sig- on educational outcomes have been one fo- nificance for policy is maintaining a database cus of research. NORC Research Associates, that is high in quality and accessible to all supported by grants from The Spencer interested parties. Possibihtles in Education Foundation, have examined this subject Research: Inside a Major Database, by from a number of angles. Possibilities in Education Research: Research Associate Noah Lewin- Inside a Major Database Epstein of the University of Tel Aviv evalu- ated the impact of organizational structures NORC's responsibilities as contractor to NCES for the conduct of the Fifth Followup on the educational experience of students Survey of the National Longitudinal Study of in two types of schools, the comprehensive the High School Class of 1972 (NLS-72) and and the differentiated. The comprehensive the Third Followup Survey of High School and school setting, dominant in the United States Beyond (HS&B) include the maintenance of since the inception of public schooling, is all data files related to the LonJtudinal Studies characterized by a commitment to offer stu- Program of the National Center for Education dents a general education, keeping their op- Statistics (NCES). These files constitute a tions for postsecondary activities open for as database of extraordinary breadth and depth long as is possible. In the differentiated set- for the investigation of both theoretical and policy-relevant research on educational ting, long dominant in Europe, the goal is processes. Their management and further de- to prepare students for particular postsec- velopment are the principal focus of NORC's ondary activities in either higher education Educational Longitudinal Studies (ELS) group. or employment. Questionnaire and test data from over Noting trends toward increased internal 80,000 young men and women are the core differentiation within com~rehensiveschools elements. For varying subsamples within this in the U.S. (the college preparatory, general, pool, the data have been supplemented by and vocational tracks) and toward the estab- records data including high school transcripts, lishment of comprehensive schools in some postsecondary school transcripts and financial aid records, SAT scores, and military service records. Contextual data about the secondary samples of schools and students. Furthermore. and postsecondary schools attended have been the agencies named abwe have been joined gathered directly from school administrators by the State of Ohio, a consortium of research and teachers, and from other Department of centers funded by the NaMonal Institute of Edu- Education surveys. NORC surveys of parents catibn, the National Science Foundation, and have added detailed information about the the National Institute for Child Health and Hu- economic status of students' families, espe- man Development in supporting the addition cially their ability to support postsecondary of questionnaire items or data ~~IIectionproce- educational activities. Employer surveys have dures. Although the power ofthis complex and added rich data on workplace characteristics. expanding dak strukeis only beginning to County-level demographic and economic data be reallzed. a few examhs wW1 illustrate its &om the Census and Bureau of Labor Statis- potential ti answer pre&ing social and politi- utics add further detail about the environments cal questions. within which the transition from high school Among the strongest recotsunendations to adult roles occurs. Many of these sup- offered by the National Commission on Excel- plementary datasets provide the means to shift lence in Educa$on was that secondary schools the level of analysis away from individual be- require all students to take increased numbers havior to a larger aggregate, such as commu- of courses in basic subjects (English, nity types, school types or categories of a mathematics, science, social studies, foreign policy or process typology, within which the languages and computing) in order to gradu- core student data contributes to the construc- ate. Using questionnaire respontm, test scores tion of elusive summary or composite meas- and complete high school transcripts for over ures for the unit of interest. 10,008 members of the yaunger HS&B co- Besides supporting research at multiple hort, NCES staff investigated the extent to levels, NORC's ELS program has provided a which current school standards failed to meet valuable mechanism for the economical study the Commission's @d&es. They found that of special subpopulations via sample sup- although a majority of students satisfied the plementation and "piggybackingwof data col- course requirements in any one subject area, lection and extraction activities. To date, the herthan 2 percent of the class of 1982 satis- Office of Bilingual Education and Minority Bed the distributional requirements recom- Language Affairs, the Office for Civil Rights. mended by the Commission (NCES "Bulle- the Office of Student Financial histance, the tinw).Moreover, NCES found that the percent- U.S. Army Recruiting Command, the Defense age &d not markedly increase even when the Manpower Data Center, the Department of Commission's recommended requirements Defense Overseas Dependents Schools, and were greatly reduced (cutting up to a year off the States of Illinois and Washington have the requirements for all subjects and eliminat- sponsored supplements to the core NCES ing the half semester of computer training). f E~mcountrim, Lewin-%skin sWsm on secondary &hook begins to move from the imps- of un-9 ths efsecfs problem identification to policy irnglementa- sf these organizzdbndl &pes on Wdents. tion, we may anticipate that the attention of hsed on~~entmisfcam of htwo education researchers will begin to focus on issues a#ecthg postsemndary Wtutions. The &oal @gq ~-Ep~Lypthz-d ELS database d support research into a wide that co-m sdm3b w& ofifc%* range ofrelewant issues. By m-8 data from students access to a bmdar and rbh~cur- postsecondary transcripts with questionnaire ridurn than would schools d b diffaren- data on employment and career histories for tied type%wbth kusrn t@echbd members of the NLS-72 and HSEkS senior co- prqmmtion fw either duca- horts, researchers will soon be addmdng vex- ing but urgent questions such as the impact But mme d hh-&st&'s findings ofpostgraduatev~cationalor technicalschool- run ewr%mto eqsda&ms svd his CMW"F b- ins upon indMdual career goals, the short and pfdbm. & bud, for 63lmmpL that t)ie long term returns-both financial and non- by monetary-of increments of postsecondaq weIGrounde4 edumtbn pmrnised the education, and issues associated with equal- cortrp'sehensive ~klis not qdly avail- ity of access by all subpopulations to various able &adl eemM @[email protected], out- types of postsecondary educational srperi- side the dIkega prepmtocy track in ences. The addition of Bnancial aid data from clompmb&ve &mb do not get meex- both fn-onal records and from Federal &BB pm government flles such as Pd Grant and v4xwmd Guaranteed Student Loan databanks wiU per- mit the study of the dects of sptraling school costa, espe&Uy within the primte school sec- suggesting that broad education in basic skills tor. These data will be espedally valuable in has become an extremely rare outcome in the immediate future to assist in the evalua- American schools. tion of the sweeping changes recommended For aver a decade, concern about the ap- by the current administration in Federd poky parent decline in scores on standardized tests concerning student handal assistance. (such as the Scholastic Aptitude Test or SAT) The ELS database will expand further dur- has prompted a variety of speculations about ing the 19th. and possibly into the next de- the relative effects of changes in the popula- cade. AU three student cohorts will be tion of test takers versus changes in the roles resmmyed in the spring of 1986. Also In 1986 and responsibilities imposed upon educational and 1987, both posisecondary tramaipb and institutions. In an effort to address this and student financial aid records wig be added for many other questions associated with educa- the younger HS&B cohort. Under the current tional achievement, NCES awarded a major plan, the latter cohort will be resurveyed once analysis contract to the Educational Teating more in 1990, closing data collection for High Service (developers ofthe NLS-72 and HS&B School and Beyond. In addition, NORC has cognitive tests) to be based upon several com- embarked on an effort to identify sources of ponents of the ELS database. The closely suppoFt for the conartruction of a My in- matching designs for the NLS-72and HS&B tegrated Eduealon Longitudinal Studies Data- elder cohort samples, questionnaires and test base, with the purposes of increasing the batteries provide an exceptionally pawedul tool efficiency and reducing the processing costs for disentangling the effects of population and associated with large-&, complex longitu- process change. The research design for the dial data systems, and expanding the avail- younger HS&B cohort, which included collec- ability of these podresearch toola to tion of student questionnaire and test data, educational researchers and practitbners who transcript data. and a variety of school level are often locked out by financial and techni- data during both tenth and twelfth grades, cal barriers. While success in this venture is makes possible highly sophisticated decom- far from certain, we believe that these efforts position of the edlects of student and school typify NORC's committment not only to the characteristics upon cognitive growth durlng callection ofdresearch data ofthe highest the last two years of high school. In the proc- quality, but also to the dimemina€ion of those ess of completin~this contract. ETs will carry data in a manner that contributes to broad- out a thorough psychometric evaluation of the based, plurabtic approaches to both pure and HS&B test batteries as well as extensive anal- applied research. yses of the impact of course exposure upon test performance and other measures of achievement. Finally, as the "era of the national reportn Calvin C. Jones track students in comprehensive schools re- public and private schools and their effects ceive significantly less academic instruction on children who attend them. This study than their peers in specialized vocational builds on work begun four years ago with schools. Lewin-Epstein found that students the HS&B base year data. NORC's initial in general programs in comprehensive proposal to conduct High School and Be- schools get less exposure to both academic yond included a number of suggested analy- subjects and vocational training and thus ses with analytical reports as products, may be at a great disadvantage in postsec- NCES funded five such analytical reports, ondary planning and activities. one of which was a comparison of public James S. Coleman and Thomas Hoffer and private schools by Coleman. Working are taking another view of school structures with Hoffer and Sally Kilgore, Coleman in Educational Outcomes from the School produced a report that found that private as a Social Unit. While they do not ignore schools produce higher achievement than the formal aspects of school organization public schools for comparable students. This such as curriculum grouping and school report subsequently became a book (High specialization, their explicit and novel focus School Achievement, Basic Books, 1982) is the school's social organization- and a subject of considerable controversy. specifically, the informal hierarchies and In Public and Private Schools, Cole- groupings that arise as schools pursue their man-University Professor in the Depart- formal goals and students confront the prob- ments of Sociology and Education and in lems of their personal development. These the School of Social Service Administration, include the prestige hierarchies that develop University of Chicago-discusses the issues according to students' differing academic in the debate and presents findings from the and athletic abilities, student friendship net- continuing research. Additional analyses of works, and student conflict groups that the HS&B data by NORC Research Associ- emerge in reaction to the authority of the ates are presented later in this section and school. elsewhere in the report. The working hypothesis of the study is that the social organization of the school Parents and Students in the generates a social distribution of outcomes, Educational Enterprise or, to put it more specifically, that a given student's relative position in the various The effects of parents on the high social structures will affect that student's per- school achievement of their children was the formance in school. The research will &s- focus of a study by Research Associate tinguish between the effects of social Thomas A. DiPrete of The University of organization and those of other variables, Chicago, working with the assistance of such as differing individual student inputs Harry E. Gallaher and support from The and the general "quality" of the school. The Spencer Foundation. Using data on white outcomes of interest include academic male sophomores from the baseyear inter- achievement, dropping out, and postsecon- views of High School and Beyond, DiPrete dary educational attainments. Also to be ex- and Gallaher examined the relative influence amined are the distributional aspects (central of socioeconomic status and socialition tendency and variance) of these outcomes style-including the values parents transmit at the school level. to their chid and such aspects of the parent- Coleman and Hoffer hope that the in- child relationship as the amount of emo- creased understanding of how the high tional support the parents provide and their school's social system affects educational interest in the child's academic career-on outcomes afforded by their work will lead to academic performance. the development of school policies that, in- Many analysts assume that the effects stead of being thwarted by the social system of parents on their children's academic per- of the high school, will make use of its forces formance can be explained entirely by their in achieving the school's goals. A mono- socioeconomic status. DPrete and Gallaher, graph is expected in 1985. however, found that socialization style of In another collaboration with support pafents has a strong separate and positive from The Spencer Foundation, Coleman effect on their children's commitment to edu- and Hoffer are examining the workings of cation, that a substantial amount of paren- bus, the researchers found d&mnces not o* in lunmkdp of do* [those with higher incomes knew more), but dm on wditems cemxmimg hm&d aid. Pa- ents with Eowm ~~mkstabs were less &e1y &a ts t&Qert-4 aid pm- warn9less ~to~l~~masparkof a Bnanclaj edd package, and mre likely to see the paperwork asmcI&ed with applgng for findd aid as hmkn~rneand in- timidating. Rosardd eLhd Olson nate that tis M-ce may mean that student aid ~qmsdibe~abkt?oachi~e~ dof equalizing opwrtunity md choke. . - -1 Issues for ~ducailohalSystems: Equity and Organization The role of the federal government in the education of young Americans has been a subject of debate for decades. Local con- trol of education is an American tradition. tal influence on a child's success does not But the call for greater attention to matters derive from socioeconomic status. Though of social justice in the schools and to the they recognize that socioeconomic status needs of the educationally disadvantaged in and socialization style are correlated, they the 1960s led to a significant increase in the argue that the relationship is not sufficiently federal role. The Great Society programs of strong to justify the omission of socialition Lyndon Johnson's administration were in explanations of the achievement of chil- barely in place, however, when a different dren, and they urge that the two be concep- call could be heard-a demand by local tually distinguished. school systems and their advocates for an The involvement of parents in their chib end to what they perceived to be federal dren's educations after high school-specif- meddling. This position has received sup- ically their kpowledge of college costs and port from the inclinations and policies of the willingness to assume responsibilities for Reagan administration, but the debate goes costs through a loan-was the subject of an on. inquiry by Research Associate Rachel Ro- Rderalim, Equity, and Educational senfeld of the University of North Carolina Policy was a study designed to shed light on and Lorayne Olson. The study, supported the effects of federal intervention in local by The Spencer Foundation, used data from school matters. This research was conducted the baseyear student interviews of High by Paul E. Peterson, then an NORC Re- School and Beyond and from the associated search Associate and now Director of Gov- survey of over 6,500 parents of these ernmental Studies at The Brookings students. Institution. Hi NORC research was con- In examining the differences between ducted with colleagues Barry G. Rabe and parents and students in knowledge of the Kenneth Wong and supported by the Na- costs of higher education, Rosenfeld and tional Institute of Education. It examined the Olson found that parents, though not very functioning of six federal education pro- knowledgeable, were more knowledgeable grams in four large cities. At the time the re- than their children. But they also found that search began, the Reconciliation Act of 1981 students who were closer to college-the had just been passed, with the result that the seniors in the sample- were more likely federal role in education was soon to be than the sophomores to be knowledgeable, reduced. The programs chosen for study, whereas the parents of seniors knew no legacies of the Great Society, were still in- more than the parents of sophomores. tact but faced major cuts and reorganization. Looking at differences by socioeconomic sta- Do federal education programs merely f serve to perpetuate their own bureaucracies Public and Private Schools while getting in the way of local attempts to One of the central arguments used to sup- improve the quality of education? Peterson's port policies against private schools is that pri- research suggests that this charge is invalid. vate schooling contributes to segregation- His case studies found programs that were racial, religious, and economic. One of the working effective]y and efficiently and part- central arguments used by supporters Of pri- nerships between federaland local program vate schooling is that private schools do a bet- ter job of generating educational achievement officials that were characterized by cooper- than do public schools. Our analysis of High ation and mutual accommodation. More- school & Beyond data from 1980 examined over, he found that federal involvement did these questions and found m~~pected

not subvert local control. While local agen- ~8~ AT. cies acquiesced readily to federal regula- Private schooling does ?dWFd~&i"eligious tions, those regulations were written and ion. primarily because most private revised so as to allow local officialsto retain are organized by religious groups. of the federal programs in their areas. these are Catholic schools, but even Peterson also found that major federal pro- of the non-Catholic private grams were directed toward areas not tradi- re Organized by religious groups.) The effect on economic segregation is in tionally covered by the states, including aid direction, but to a much lesser de- for the educationally deprived and the hand- icapped and for such special programs as special popu,at,ons, Special Issues school desegregation. The problems faced by handicapped Because their findings were so unex- in American elementary and secon- pected in light of the conventional wisdom, dary schools have been a focus of increas- the researchers were moved to examine fed- ing public over the past decade. prosams in two other prominent areas This results, in part, from the debate sur- of policy, care and housing. rounding pasage of Public Law 94-412, Their findings in these areas were similar: which required the of hand- "whether engaged in special education' icapped students in classrooms. One prepaid goup medical practice, Or cornmu- of the major concerns about handicapped nity development, federal categorical pro- students is how they fare after leaving high grams did not prove to be school, how they manage the transition to sources and lo- the world of work or institutions of higher cal chaos after all." The report from the pro- education. ~h~ data born High School & ject, When kh-aljsm Works, submitted to ~~~~~d,which follows its respondents over NIE, includes findings from the initial and time, appeared to be ideal for expanded research areas, as well as a the- these questions, and NCES funded a policy Ory of from the empir- analysis by NORC Senior Study Director ical research. Carol B. Stocking and Jeff Owings of the Organizing Schools in Pluralist National Center for Education Statistics. America, another project directed by Peter- However, their inquiry soon encountered a son, was a study of the history of urban edu- methodological issue that led to a refocus- cation in America. Peterson found that ing of the research. America's educational system, far from rein- Finding that the students' reports about forcing existing patterns of stratification, their own handicaps were not stable over the seems to have contributed substantially to two points at which they were interviewed, openness of social structure, to social change Stocking and Owings turned to an explora- and social mobility. And he concludes that tion of the causes of thii phenomenon. Were this is as it should, and even must, be in a the discrepancies simply error in the data? pluralistic society, where public institutions Are students incapable of correctly report- are shaped by a plurality of political forces. ing their own conditions? Are the data there- This research was supported by the National fore of little utility in studying handicapped Institute of Education. The results will be students? The researchers found an altema- published in 1985 by the University of tive explanation: Students view themselves Chicago Press under the title The Politics of as handicapped or limited depending on School Reform. many other factors in their lives. Some have I gree. Again, the reason is principally that most some light, There is no doubt in my mind that private schools are organized by religious this kind of explicit introduction of policy ques- groups, leaving only a small minority of the tions is important for social-scientific analy- private school population in the upper middle sis if it is to shed light on questions relevant class "independentnschools. Many of the re- to social policy rather than merely be "interest- ligiously organized schools, with Catholic ing" to dalselentists. But it was precisely schools as the best example, have had as their this expliiit introduction of poky-rehnt clientele a largely working-class population. questions which, after the report was released, An additional reason for the small effect of pri- roused the ire of many and prompted numer- vate schools on economic segregation is that ous reanalyses of the data by persons aiming American public schools are also rather highly to show we were in error. Furthermore, as the segregated along economic lines, and most of results suggest, the conclwfans of the report the well-to-do in Amdca use public suburban on balance gave more support to the argu- schools rather than private schools (as is done ments in favor of private schools than to the in England and some parts of the eastern opposing arguments, and this has generated United States). extensive controversy in the educational Matters are more complex on the ques- journals. tion of racial segregation: the private sector In response to this, and to the availabll- enrolls fewer blacks than the public sector and ity of data from the flrst bhpofthe HS&B thus contributes to racial segregation; but sample In 1982, HofEer and 1 have embarked there is less black-white segregation within the on additional analytic work to attempt to con- private Worthan within the public, an effect firm and extend our earlier mrk. In our work in the other direction. Taken together, these to date, we have found strong confirmation of two effects balance almost exactly. It is true our central finding: private schools appear to that some white parents use private schools be substantially more effective in promoting to escape integration. But, on balance and students' achievement than are public schools. over the country as a whole, the private sec- The most important explanatory mechanisms tor seems not to contribute to segregation de- for the private-sector advantage reveald to spite this fact, probably because most escapes date are, bt,the tendency for prhmte schools from integration are not to private schools at to place students in academic programs (in- all but to white suburban schools in the pub- cluding students who, our analysis shows, lic sector. would be placed in non-academic programs On the question of achievement, the in the public sector), and, second, the greater analysis showed a small but distinct achieve- amounts of coursework in mathematics and ment increment associated with the private science that private school studenb take. sector, an increment that was resistant to var- As the study progresses, we will continue ious analytical techniques designed to elimi- to investigate explanaby meohanisms for the nate apparent effects that are actually due to private-sector advantage, and we will extend selection. The Catholic sector and the other our analysb. We plan, for example, to exam- private schools were studied separately, and ine the effects of private schools on more both appeared to show a similar positive ef- educational outcomes than were covered in fed: between one and two grade equivalents, our initial analysis. The addftional outcomes in both verbal and mathematical skills. (The of interest include dropping out of school, ex- sample of non-Catholic private schools is, ecution of postsecondary plans, success in the however, too small and too heterogeneous to first two years of caUege, and attitudes, indud- allow us to make statements about them with ing seM-concept. confidence.) Our analvsis indicated that the The aim throughout this phase of our private-sector polides && responsible for the work will be to evaluate bath the performance achievement increment were greater academic of the publk schools and of American educa- demands (more homework; more academic tion policy generally. Private schools are es- courses, though not in science subjects; less pecially valuable for this purpose because they likelihood of being put in a general or voca- allow the evaluation both of polides and prac- tional track) and greater disciplinary demands. tices within a school and of such broader is- Our approach to the study of public and sues as homogeneity and diversity among private schools was informed by our belief that schools, assignment of students to schools, the principal justification of such research is and the effects of providing choice in its value as an aid for policy. Thus, we began education. our work by outlining a set of arguments for the encouragement of private schooling and a set of arguments for its discouragement. James S. Coleman Each argument was one on which analysis of the High School & Beyond data might shed conditions that they will consistently report tion and support for academic achievement. as handicaps-for example, deafness. Greeley's analysis shows that Catholic Others have conditions that they may or schools in fact have the greatest effect on may not view as handicaps, such as minor those who are disadvantaged-minorities, orthopedic anomalies. Thus, to be "handi- those from lower socioeconomic back- capped" is for many students a transitory grounds, those who think themselves state (i.e., a condition that is dependent on unattractive, and those who had low various factors and thus subject to change) achievement test scores. Greeley finds that rather than a permanent trait. the positive effects of Catholic school atten- To explore this insight further, Stocking dance can be accounted for by dynamics of and Owings analyzed reports of handicaps the school itself-demands for more home- in relation to other characteristics and con- work, requirements that students take more ditions of the student, such measures as advanced courses, and greater disciplinary achievement test scores, persistence in stability. Greeley finds substantiation for school, the student's reports of their grades, these claims in the fact that public schools and their scores on three psychological that impose similar environments, require- scales. In all cases, the analyses revealed that ments, and demands have comparable aca- students who thiik of themselves as handi- demic outcomes. capped report having other problems as The Parish Education Evaluation Pro- well-for example, lower self-esteem. From ject, directed by Research Associate William this, Stocking and Owings conclude that stu- C. McCready of The University of Chicago, dent self-identification as handicapped, a will examine the non-school aspect of reli- variable previously thought to be of dubious gious education in Roman Catholic parishes. value, is in fact useful. This both vamates A nationaI sample of Directors of Religious the utility of the HS&B database for analyses Education will be asked to nominate partic- of the handicapped and points to the impor- ularly successful parish programs. Directors tance of attention to the special needs of of and students in all nominated programs handicapped students. will be surveyed, and a sample of the pro- The educational experiences of grams will be the subject of intensive study. minority students were the focus of a study The research, scheduled for completion in by Andrew M. Greeley. In a project related 1985, is supported by the McGivney Fund to Coleman and Hoffer's, Greeley used of the National Catholic Educational HS&B data from the 1980 survey to exam- Association. ine the role of Catholic schools in the edu- The relationship between being cation of black and Hispanic children. Like Spanish-English bilingual and high school Coleman and Hoffer, Greeley found that en- achievement was the subject of an inquiry rollment at private schools had a positive ef- by Ftaqois Nielsen, conducted with support fect on students' achievement. But, looking from The Spencer Foundation. The research only at Catholic schools and minority stu- used data from the senior sample of the dents, Greeley found that the effect was High School and Beyond (HS&B) study. even stronger. The results of this research Though the results of the study must be in- are reported in Catholic High Schools and terpreted with caution because the sample Minority Students (Transaction, 1982). of high school seniors cannot be said to be Greeley's work, like that of Coleman representative of the whole population of and Hoffer, was the subject of heated de- bilingual youth-specifically, it does not in- bate, and, like them, he has taken the op- clude those who dropped out of high portunity afforded by the longitudinal design school-there are findings of interest con- of High School and Beyond to test the con- cerning those who remain in school. clusions of his initial efforts using data from Mielsen compared the students' Iinguis- the 1982 survey. In this second analysis, tic Hipanicity, as measured by proficiency Greeley found confirmation of his earlier in Spanish and frequency of use of Spanish work. One charge heard frequently is that in the home, and the results of cognitive tests Catholic schools appear more successful taken by the HS&B sample. He found that than public schools only because they serve ~is~ankityis almost unc6rrelated with Eng- the most able students and those from lish proficiency once background factors are homes where there is the strongest motiva- taken into account, suggesting that Spanish speakers do achieve high fluency in English ics, a nonprofit organization established to during their school careers. Using interview promote understanding of basic economic and other data from the study, Nielsen con- principles and knowledge of the U.S. eco- cludes that, controlling for English profi- nomic system among young people, spon- ciency and other factors, bilingualism sored the development of a textbook, Our constitutes an advantage with respect to Economy, for its target group. Wishing to as- school achievement, having a positive effect sess the effect of this text on economic - on both educational expectations and grade values and attitudes, the Foundation con- point average. tracted with NORC to perform a two-part study. The result of the first part of the re- Testing and Measurement search is an original, easy-to-administer In 1983-84, NORC undertook several measure of economic values and attitudes projects that involve advances in testing and toward economic issues-the Economic Val- measurement of school outcomes in the ues Inventory, developed by Senior Survey form of student achievement. These studies Director Mary Utne OBrien and Assistant are under the direction of Research Associ- Survey Director Steven Ingels. The EVI is ate R. Darrell Bock of The University of made up of eight scales of moderate relia- Chicago. Two major testing programs-the bility (Cronbach's alpha ranging from .5 to California Assessment Program (CAP) and .8) that cover a range of economic topics the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude and show evidence of strong construct va- Battery (ASVAB)-were the focus of Bock's lidity. It is suitable for use in experimental attention. evaluations of group changes in economic Under a contract with the Department attitudes and values, as well as in other set- of Education of the State of California, Bock tings in which young people's economic per- is responsible for the psychometric spectives are of interest. It is currently being activities-item calibration and scale-score used by researchers in Great Britain, evaluation-of the California Assessment Canada, and the United States in studies of Program. This project employs a unique sys- attitudinal impacts of different forms of in- tem of school-level scoring that enables CAP struction and in studies of factors related to to work with school-level summary data the development of economic attitudes and from its multiple-matrix samples of item differences among them. responses, rather than from pupil-level data. In the second and ongoing stage of the The approach was initiated in 1979-80 at research, the EVI is being used to evaluate the third-grade level, extended in 1981-82 the impact of Our Economy on the eco- to the sixth-grade level, and extended in nomic views of ninth grade students. The ef- 1984 to the eighth-grade level. fects of other factors, including students' Over the last two years, Bock com- economic knowledge, socioeconomic back- pleted one ASVAB project and began an- ground, and political beliefs, are also being other. Using data from the "Profile of measured; and the teachers of the students American Youth," a 1980 project in which in the study are responding to the EVI and NORC administered a version of the ASVAB to a series of questions about their political to nearly 12,000 young people, Bock con- beliefs, training in economics, and reactions tributed to the computerization of adaptive to the textbook. testing in a project sponsored by the U.S. Navy. Among the developments were psy- chometric models appropriate to item analy- sis, calibration, and test scoring and new models for reading comprehension tests. Bock also did an estimation of the abilities in the mobilization population. In a related project, under a contract with the Educa- tional Testing Service, Bock developed and compared four methods of online item cali- bration for the adaptive ASVAB. The bundation for Teaching Econom- the labor force Work is a central fact of human exis- 21 as of January 1, 1979. The third sample tence. For most people work is essential to was designed to cover those 17 to 21 years swival; and many spend the lion's share of of age as of January 1, 1979, and serving their waking hours throughout their adult in the military as of September 30, 1978. lives on the job. Beyond these facts are the The first of the two civilian samples is feelings associated with working-or not- a cross-sectional sample designed to yield feelings of self-worth, engagement, well- the proper population proportions of vari- being. And, ultimately, there is the depen- ous racial, ethnic, and income groups in the dence of societies on the functioning of their 14 to 21 age cohort. The second is a sup- labor forces for goods and services. plemental sample designed to increase the The centrality and complexities of la- representation of Hispanics, blacks, and eco- bor force participation create numerous re- nomically disadvantaged youth who are nei- search issues of vital interest. The timing and ther black nor Hispanic. The military sample circumstances of entry into the labor force; is a clustered probability sample of the 17 unemployment; and mobility, productivity, to 21 age cohort, stratified by branch of serv- and compensation for the employed-these ice (Amy, Navy, Air Force, and Marine are some of the issues addressed in NORC's Corps) and by geographic location (Eastern research on the labor force. In 1983-84, this United States, Western United States, Eu- work was accomplished largely through a rope, the Far East, and other), in which major continuing survey and a number of women were oversampled at approximately analytic studies by NORC economists, for six times the rate for men. These samples whom the labor force is a focus of interest. and oversamples were created to allow analyses of the contemporat-$ youth popu- Getting Started: The National lation as a whole and of special subpopula- Longitudinal Survey of Labor Force tions with particular importance for policy Behavior, Youth Cohort research. NORC has collaborated with CHRR The National bngitudinal Survey of and the DoL/NLS Principal Investigators, Labor Force Behavior, Youth Cohort is an Michael Borus and Kenneth Wolpin, over annual national survey of 12,686 young the life of the project in developing and people throughout the United States. The maintaining this survey. After six years of in- youth cohort is the latest addition to the Na- terviewing, the response rate stands at 95 tional Longitudinal Surveys begun in 1965 percent of the bassyear interviews, an ex- by the Center for Human Resource Re- ceptionally high response rate for a popula- search (CHRR) at the Ohio State University tion as mobile as this one. for the Office of Manpower Policy, Evalua- The coverage afforded by the samples, tion and Research of the U.S. Department the character and quantity of the data col- of Labor. Many researchers recognize these lected in the six annual interviews, and the data as the Pames data, after their origina- quality ensured by the response rates tor, Dr. Herbert Parnes, of Ohio State; to achieved combine to make the DoL/NLS others, this study is the DoL/NLS. an important resource for research. In The NORC has a subcontract with the Cen- DoL/NLS: A Cooperative, Cost-Effective ter for Human Resource Research to con- Venture, Mary C. Burich, who has served duct the survey component of the project. as NORC's NLS Project Director for over five A one-hour personal interview is conducted years, describes how shared sponsorship of each year between January and May. Data the project and use of the data by many collection began in 1979. In 1983-84, agencies and individuals have fostered the NORC conducted the fifth and sixth rounds creation of this resource at reduced cost of interviewing and began preparations for the seventh. In the Labor Market: Compensation, These surveys have as their base the Productivity, Unemployment 12,686 youth who completed a baseline in- terview in 1979. In all there are three in- Research Associates James Heckman dependent probability samples. Two of these and Guilherme Sedlacek have undertaken samples were designed to cover the nonin- a large project to study determinants of real stitutionalized civilian population aged 14to wages in the U.S. labor market. They build Z a theoretical model stressing "comparative veloped from a study of the issues involved advantages" of workers in different demo- in setting compensation for high-level graphic groups and in different industries, government employees and elected officials. and they model explicitly both the supply Rosen and Lazar discovered that the com- and demand side of the labor market. One petitive nature of elections was a central fac- of the most important aspects of their study tor in this area. Furthermore, they found is the light they shed on the "aggregation many parallels between these public em- bias" that causes wages to appear to be not ployees and those in the private sector in at- very flexible over the business cycle. The es- tainment and promotion to high-level sence of the "bias" is that in economic down- positions that did not yield to standard turns, while wages fall somewhat, and those modes of economic thinking. The outright at the bottom of the economic ladder are competition involved in these types of labor disproportionately laid off, the measured market activities did not at all fit into the average wage of those still working declines economist's vocabulary. This early work is very little because the bottom of the distri- reported in a paper entifled "Rank Order bution is eliminated. Thus, the fact that ag- Tournaments as Optimum Labor Contracts" gregate or average wages do not appear to (Journd of Political Economy, 1981). fall very much in economic downturns re- Rosen continued work in this and flectsthese disproportional layoffs at the bot- several other areas in 1983-84 with support tom of the distribution, not any fundamental from the National Science bundation. "The wage rigidity. Economics of Superstars," published in both The Heckman-Sedlacek project uses a the American Economic Review and The carefully crafted model of the labor market American Scholar, investigates the upper taii and sophisticated statistical procedures and of the income distribution, exploring how it finds strong evidence of this aggregation bias is that a small number of people in several within the manufacturing sector of the U.S. of the professions and the arts and entertain- economy over the period 1968-1981 for ment industries earn enormous amounts of white males. But they also find just the op- money and appear to dominate their trades. posite effect for the economy as a whole. In a related project, Rosen analyzed the rela- The reason seems to be "comparative tionship between the distribution of earnings advantages." Consider the oil price increase and the distribution of firm sizes. He sum- of the 1970s, an event that affected the marizes some of his results in Authority, manufacturing sector disproportionately. Control, and the Distribution of Eamlngs. The white male workers displaced from the The productivity of American workers manufacturing sector by that event were in- has been a cause of debate and concern in deed lower skilled than the average worker recent years. In 1983-84, the relationship in that sector, according to the Heckman- between employee compensation and Sedlacek study, but some of these displaced productivity was studied by Research Asso- workers found employment in the non- ciates Edward Lazear and Robert Michael manufacturing sector, where their relative with suppart from the U.S. Department of skill level was lower, causing a bigger decline Labor. Beginning with theory, barwrote in the aggregate wages in that sector. On bal- "Salaries and Piece Rates," in which he ex- ance, Heckman and Sedlacek contend, the amines organizational decisions about effect of this "aggregation bias" is to exag- whether to pay employees by sakuy or piece gerate, not mitigate, the aggregate decline rate. Piece-rate compensation is often as- in real wages, compared to what they would sociated with lower level workers, but have been if task skills had been held fixed Lazear-who includes in the definition of over the 1970s. piece rate any compensation scheme, such Sherwin Rosen, NORC Research Asso- as commissions, that is based on output ciate and Professor of Economics at The rather than time worked-demonstrates that University of Chicago, has spent several hierarchy is not the determining factor. years studying incentives and rewards, par- There is no relationship between the form ticularly as they relate to the structure of or- of pay and the level of a job in the firm's ganizations and to understanding the upper hierarchy; top executives, middle managers, taii of the income distribution. This work, be- and the lowest level workers might all be gun in collaboration with Edward Lamar, de- paid by either salary or piece rate. The The DoL/NLS: A Cooperative, Cost- tion, and income, These topics Botm the Effective Venture Department of Labor's core questionnaire. Ihe resulting data have been used to study such The main support for the National Lon- questions as teenage unempigrment and la- @tudinalSurvql of Labor Force Behavior has bor force participation and the willingness of ahvays been provided by the U.S. Department youth to work below the rnSnImurn wage. of Labor, but other governmentid departments A second major portion of the study, sup- and agenda have also made contributions to parred by the National Institute of Child Health support for the youth cohort of the NLS. These and Human Development, focuses on fedtty, include the U.S. Department of Defense, the contraception, child care, prenatal we, and National Institute of CWHealth and Human infant hdth and nutrition. Ddapnlgnt, the National Imtltute on Alco- Over the last hur years of the sunmy.. the holism and Alcohol Abuse, the National Insti- Natid Institute an AlcohoUsm and Aleohd tute of Education, and the National Institute Abuse has handed measurements of &oh01 on Drug Abuse. This collaboration has cohswnptlon and problem drinking. The youth resulted in 1- overall afBdeacies h data col- cshort is a paNcularly useful data set for this lection costs throughout the government. The agency because it permits the capture of drink- supporting departments and agencies have ing behavior at its start and elloars researchers been able to secure data on a variety of issues to measure the d&ct of drinking on gartldpa- without Incurring the costs associated with de- tion ia the labor force and childbearing. veloping unique samples of youth to address The W.S. Department of Deiense, in ad- their indiwidual r@mwch agendas. In addition, dwon dio its suppertd an independent sample this collaboration hati resulted In a decrease of youth in the military, has funded related in burden on the responding pubbc. Further. projects, In the largest of these. the NLS sam- more. bn@udW data collected En prior years ple was used Ltg DoD to develop new norms can be brought to bear on a particdar topic for the Armed !hdces b;tjodAptitude inmy given-, @-richeranallysasw Battery, the series of tests us4to screw and could be obtained from a shgle swwy. place applicants to the Armed Sentices. DoD The questionnaire for the youth survey made arrangemanha to "bond the NU centers on work eperknces, job trainlng and youth sample from the Department of Labor educa&n, and bask demographic infortnation and contracted with N.ORC for the test ad- suoh as maritsrl status, household composi- ministration. Thls alnproaeh saved the d

deciding factors are, instead, things ke pilot survey limits the possibilities for data whether the output from a job can be easily analysis, but findings in one area-the views and accurately measured, whether workers of managers concerning ~avemmentregu- at a given level are hamogeneous or h-- lation of employee compensation xhemes- geneous in skill or diligence, and whether are surprising and worthy of note. Large the workers at that level have good alterna- public firms felt that government mgdat!ons tive job opportunities. diminished the productivity of their firms; barand Michael,-working with staff smaner private hswere much less critical. of NORC's Survey Croup, developed a The differences in labor force status and srmll pilot survey to test btthe feasibility compensation fcx work among blacks, and then the best methods of obtaining com- whites, and Hispanics was the focus of re- pensation and productivity d&ta from firms. cent work by Research Associate John Department stores and manufaduring firms Abowd and his colleague Mark R. Killings- ranging in size from under 100 to over worth. They developed a model of labor 10,000 employees were the subjects of the force status that incorporates both supply study. The chief areas of concern in the pi- and demand factors in the de+mination6f lot were the procedures to be employed in employment, unemployment, and labor gaining cooperation for the inbsviews, the force participation. The rnodkl b estimated time each firm would cconMbute Yo the in- separately fctr geograpbkally matched na- terview, and the amount and kind of infor- tional samples of Hbpanlcs, blacks, and mation about the firm that could be obtained white non-Hispanics. The estimated model readily from public saurees. The pilot is used to study how enplgrment, unem- demonstrated both the f&b&y and the did- ployment, and labor fmeparticipation rates ficuliy of the underhhg. of mdes and females would change if the The small ske of the sample from the raceethnicity of each group were changed. sors have been joined by many others both in amd outside of government in making use of these data. Findings from the'NLS surveys have been used by the U.S. Commission on Chrll Rights, the Vice President's Task Force on Youth Employment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Congressional Budget Office, the Federal Trade Commission, the Depart- ment of Commerce, the National Commtssion for Employment Policy, and the Minimum Wage Study Cornmission, as well m by state and locd governments and numarom aca- demic research institutions. At NORC, researchers have used the MS W to address such diverse topics as youth unemployment and the effects of early employment on later participaton in the labor force; household for- mation, marriage, childbearing; and enlist- ment, training, and manpower use in the Armed Services. The widespread use of these data In the first few years of their availability Mary C. Burich is impressive evidence of their social value. In additlon to the data coISe&d by the an- nud surveys, the public use files include the millimn dollars that would have been required ASVAB scores and high school transcripts. to construct an independent sampie of youth State and local labor force statistiax are also for the norming procedures. It dm added ex- added to the files. These are made available csllent data on $heyouth's aptitude to the data- at minimal cost through the Center hr ban base, further enhancing its general ueefdws. Reaource Research at the Ohio State But the power d shared gonsomhip to University. enhance the content of a database GOS~efFec- threly is only part of the story. The NUspon- Mary C. Burich

When black males and females are com- differences between Hispanic and white pared to whites, substantial differences non-Hispanic malles do appear to arise from remain. This indicates that measured char- measured human capital differences. They acteristics do not account for d of the differ- also examine the differences between the ences between black and white labor force federal government and private employers status statistics. In contrast, there are rela- in black-white and Hispanic-white wage tively small differences remaining for dierentials. Their analysis indicates that, for Hispanic males and females compared to blacks, wage discrimination is greater in the whites. Most, indeed almost all, of the ob- federal sector, whereas earnings discrimina- served white-Hispanic difference in labor tion is smaller in that sector. This may seem force status is related to white-Hispanic contradictory. If the non-federal sector is bet- differences in measured characteristics such ter than the federal sector as regards wage as schooling, age, marital status, and the like, discrimination, why isn't it also better as rather than to unexplained "discrimination." regards earnings discrimination? Abowd, A related effort analyzed ethnic pay Abowd, and Killingsworth suggest that the differentials among men. Using two large answer lies in the greater stability of the fed- data sets, The Survey of Income and Edu- eral sector, and the disproportionate effects cation and the Federal Government Central of the relatively greater employment insta- Personnel Data Fife, Abowd and Killings- bity in the non-federal sector. Evidence that worth, with colleague Anthony Abowd, con- discrimination within the federal sector may firmed the findings noted above. They found be substantial is not new, but it is not always that black-white wage and earnings dieren- observed. One important reason seems to tials are not explained by schooling, job ex- be related to the fact that minorities are perience, place of residence, and other generally overrepresented in federal employ- measured variables but that most of the pay ment, and much federal employment is con- centrated in urban areas in particular states. Authority, Control, and the The way in which a study controls for the Distribution of Earnings purely geographic effects on pay (i.e., the The distributions of earnings and of firm higher pay in cities to compensate for higher sizes show remarkable similarities, with heavy ling costs) can affect the conclusions about concentration of mass in their upper tails. It federal or non-federal wage policies. is possible to link these two distributions to- Unemployment is a fact of life in capi- gether with a model based on the interactions talist societies. But it is not a fact readily ac- between two forces: the indivisibilities of cepted by those who experience it, nor even decision-making on the one hand and the by those who observe the suffering and problem of control of large organizations on the other. Good top-lwel decisions are more waste it can cause, especially during periods ' of very high unemployment, such as the re- valuable in large organizations than in small cent recession. Work done in 1983-84 by ones because they affect the economic effi- ciency of larger numbers of workers. A work- Research Associate Robert H. Topel ad- er's labor is not very productive if management dressed several aspects of this problem. has decided to produce the wrong product, In an analysis using data for 76,000 and having many workers expending effort in prime-aged male labor force participants the wrong direction is clearly a more serious from the pooled 1977-80 Current Popula- inefficiency.On this account alone it is efficient tion Surveys conducted by the U.S. Bureau to assign more talented managers to larger en- of the Census, Topel found that the major terprises and allow them to control more risk of unemployment is employer-initiated resources. Howwer, there is a problem of loss separations. In an important departure from of control as organizations grow very large. previous work, Topel's study distinguishes This is why the market supports firms of di- verse sizes. An organization must somehow between permanent separations and tem- monitor its workers to make sure that manage- porary ones, in which the person laid off ex- ment directives are carried out and that the pects to be rehired by the original employer organization stays on course. This problem is after some period. One of the differences be- partially solved by subordinating control tween these types of unemployment is the through a longer chain-of-command in large proportion of unemployment each accounts firms compared with small ones. Competitive for in Topel's sample: 62 percent permanent, labor markets assign more talented persons 38 percent temporary. to higher lwel positions in larger firms with Turning from the nature of unemploy- a deeper hierarchical structure. These persons ment to its causes, Topel found what might reside at the top of large pyramidal organiza- tions where they control many more resources seem an unlikely culprit-unemployment in- and earn very large incomes through a mul- surance. Unemployment insurance in- tiplicative effect of their talents on the produc- creases both the frequency and duration of tivity of other people. unemployment spells, according to Topel, and accounts for 20 percent of temporary Sherwin Rosen layoffs in an average year and perhaps as much as 30 percent during a general eco- nomic slump. Employers are assessed for unemployment insurance at a rate that is The Armed Services: A Major meant to reflect the frequency with which Employer they lay off workers, but those in high-layoff industries, though they pay the maximum The U.S. Armed Services are usually rates, still do not pay enough to cover the thought of as the nation's defense. But they costs of benefits to workers. Thus, laying off also play a significant role in the economy, workers imposes no extra cost on those pay- drawing their support from the public purse ing the maximum, and unemployment and offering employment and training to benefits can become wage subsidies. Based many. Taken together, the Armed Services on his research, Topel recommends changes are the second largest employer in the na- in the structure of payroll taxes for unem- tion, second only to the U.S. government as ployment insurance, placing increased em- a whole. As of December 31, 1983, there phasis on the experience rating and thereby were over two million persons in the several reducing the incentive to move too quickly branches of the military. to a subsidized layoff of employees. In the absence of conscription. the .r Armed Services, like other employers, must examining the power of survey data for attract workers to meet their needs and, hav- predicting enlistment behavior. It is well ing done so, must create conditions that will known that a host of personal, background, foster their successful functioning and induce and labor market variables are important de- them to stay. Enlistment behavior and an im- terminants of career choices, of which en- portant aspect of the work environment- listment behavior is one dimension. What is training-were the focus of three Depart- not known is the relative contribution of ment of Defense studies at NORC during each. Also unknown is the power of ex- 1983-84. pressed plans to enlist in predicting enlist- Using the Department of Labor's Na- ment behavior. Using data hmthe DoL/ tional bngitudinal Survey of Labor Force NLS, Topel is isolating the contribution of Behavior, Youth Cohort (the DoL/NLS, see these elements and evaluating the utility of above), Research Associate Christopher survey questions about enlistment plans. Winship and his colleague Robert Mare of The NLS is ideally suited for this research the University of Wisconsin are analyzing the not only because it affords a wealth of in- enlistment decisions of male youth. The ma- formation on personal and family charac- jor focus of their effort has been the ways teristics and preenlistment attitudes toward in which other possibiities compete with en- the military, but also because it includes in listment when young men make choices each survey year a question about whether about their lives after high school. Winship the respondent LLexpectsto attempt enlist- and Mare conceptualize the enlistment proc- ment in the armed forces in the future." ess as involving a short-run choice by an in- Topel is also taking advantage of the longitu- dividual among three activities-military dinal nature of the NLS to examine how service, full-time civilian employment, and changes in an individual's labor market ex- full-time schooling-a choice affected by the perience (such as losing a job) affect both opportunities available to the individual. If intentions to enlist and actual enlistment. the individual chooses to work, how diicult Training, as an incentive for enlistment will it be for him to find work and what level and reenlistment, is a key factor in securing of wages will he receive? If the individual military manpower that is adequate in quan- chooses to continue with schooling, what tity and quality for the purposes of the Serv- type of financial support will he be able to ices. To the degree that training. raises skill get, from parents or the government? If he levels, it is also a key factor in efficient use chooses to enlist, what opportunities will be of existing manpower. Research Associate available to him-in branch of service, train- Charles E. Bidwell is analyzing data from the ing, job, and wages? military sample of the DoL/NLS to deter- Clearly, the ability of a given individual mine the separate and joint effects of three is a critical factor in the answers he will get prime elements of Wing-cognitive capac- to these questions, and thus in the choice ity, motivation, and quality of instruction- he will make. For this reason, Winship and on the skills and commitment of military per- Mare's study, unlike most previous research sonnel. The results of the research will be on the supply of manpower to the military, suitable for informing several of the central looks not at youth as an aggregate, but at issues in military manpower policy, includ- differences in the decision-making process ing how to foster such desirable outcomes among young men of diierent abilities, as as high rates of retention among the most measured by the Armed Services Vocational able and committed personnel and how to Aptitude Battery. The analysis in progress fit training to personnel who have diierent will yield information that can be used in cognitive capacities and motivations to con- evaluating the effects of changes in govern- tinue in the service. ment enlistment, employment, and educa- Military personnel were also the focus tional policies on enlistment decisions. In of a major survey effort in 1983-84. The The Paradox of Lessening Racial Inequality House Arrned Services Committee (HASC) and Joblessness Among Black Youth En- has required that the U.S. Air %rce review rollment, Enlistment, and Employment, the means by which it determines the num- 1964-1981, Winship summarizes some of ber of women to enlist each year. The results his work in this area. of this analysis, according to HASC, are to In a related effort, Robert H. Topel is be an assessment of the Air Force's capabil- The Paradox of Lessening Racial Inequality ment and military enlistments for young and Joblessness Among Black Youth: blacks. Three mechanisms that relate these Enrollment, Enlistment, and Employment, trends are: (1) incrdsum of school- 1964-1981 ing and military service for employment by young blacks., (2) reduced work experience and An important exception to improvements disGted employment for young blacks at in the relative sodoeconomic statue of blacks older ages as a result of later average ages of during recent decades is increased levels of leaving school and the armed forces; (3) joblessness among black youths relative to "creaming" from ffie civilian out-of-school whlbes. Since World Wat I1 there has been con- population of young blacks with above aver- vergence between blacks and whites in grades age educational attainment and employment of school completed, the proportian of workers prospects as a result of higher school enroll- in managerial and professional occupations, ments and military enlistments. the quality of schools attended, economic Ow analyses of the 1964-1981 March returns to schooling, and numbers of elected CPSs indicate that about half of the relative officials. There has been no convergence, how- increase in black joblessness for males be- ever* in youth employment. As an example, in tween the ages of 16 and 29 can be explained 1954 black and white unemployment rates for by these mechanisms. Of this, approximately 16 to 24 year olds were 15.8 and 9.9 percent, 40 percent is due to changes in enrollment and respectiveiy, a difference of 5.9 percentage enlistment rates and another fifteen percent Ls points. In 1980 the rates were 26.4 and 12.0, due to "creaming" and redud work ex- respectively, a difhrgn~eof 14.4 percentage perience, giving a total of 65 percent. These points. e&cts, however, are partially offset by the ef- In recent research my colleague Robert fe& of increased black educational attainment Mare and 1 have attempted to explain this on employmen&which reduce8 the total to 50 paradox by understanding how employment percent. fits in with other lile qdestatuses in the tran- This suggests that at least in part the sition from youth to adult- Using annual growing race difkrence in employment is a files from the March Current Population Sw- consequence of otherwise salutary changm in vey for the years &om 1964 to 1981 we have the lives of puns blacks, especiany increased examined the relationship between increases school enrollment and educatirnd attahment. in joblessness and increases in school enroll- In this sense, broadening race differences in youth employment are consistent with diminished differences on other hdkators of soci~econolnicachiewement. We arwe that labor statistics from the 1950s and early 1960s conceal important racial differentials in em- ployment. Badore the recent relative rise in black schooling and military service, young blacks had a "head start" in the labor market because their white counterparts elected to seek full-time employment at much later ages. As a result, black youth employment ram were close to part@ with those of whites. Now that blacks and whites are more equal in their timing of movement out of school and the mili- tary, the true racial difference in employment is revenled. All of this is not to argue that widening race differences in youth employment are an acceptable development or a necessary byproduct of otherwise favorable socioeco- nomic change. If joblessness in youth hwts later socioeconomic achiewuent, then per&- tently high youth unemnplayment for blacks will prevent full equality in the adult labor market. Moreover*l good opportunities are now H- able to blacks with high leveb of education. then inequalities within the black population are likely to grow. Christopher Winship 5 ity to utilize women and an accession meth- neutral stimulus, a conveyor and clarifier of odology based on that capability. question content and recorder of responses, In response to this mandate, the Air but does nothing to affect the direction or Force commissioned an organizational intensity of the responses given. impact assessment, and NORC, under a However, while considerable research subcontract with Systems Research and Ap- has examined effects of various interviewer plications (SRA), conducted a major survey characteristics, there have been relatively few of Air Force personnel. Nearly 12,000 en- systematic studies of effects of sex of inter- listed personnel on 30 Air Force bases com- viewer. The results of the research done to pleted survey questionnaires in less than a date show that under certain circumstances month under NORC management. The the sex of the interviewer can influence re- main survey was accomplished by having sponse. Accordingly, NORC volunteered to enlisted personnel fill out questionnaires in test for this possibility, especially important group sessions run by NORC interviewers; in a survey on sex-related topics. this data collection effort was supplemented In an analysis comparing responses in a number of ways, including individual in- given to male and female interviewers, Sen- depth interviews with a subsample of en- ior Survey Director May Utne O'Brien listed persons and with senior officers on the found no statistically significant differences bases from which enlisted personnel were or systematic variation in survey responses sampled. by sex of interviewer. This indicates that the The goal of the survey was to gather Air Force need exercise no special caution data that would lead to findings and recom- related to a sex of interviewer/sex of respon- mendations firmly grounded in the ex- dent interaction in interpreting the findings periences of enlisted personnel in the units from the personal interviews. It also argues that carry out the day-to-day work of the Air for the efficacy of trained and experienced Force. For this reason, relatively few of the interviewers in implementing the survey re- questionnaire items sought information search model. about attitudes toward women or responses to hypothetical increases in the number of women in the Air Force. Instead, the focus of the questionnaire was the working con- ditions in these units as experienced by the men and women in them in the week imme- diately preceding the administration of the questionnaire. During the design phase of the study Air Force representatives expressed concern that male respondents individually inter- viewed by female NORC interviewers might feel less free to express their attitudes about women in the Aii Force than if they were interviewed by males. In response to this concern, NORC volunteered to test for this possibility by conducting a quasi-experiment in the course of data collection. It is plausible to speculate that if an en- listed man has negative feelings about women in the Air Force he may soften his expression of those feelings in the presence of a female interviewer, either because he fears giving offense or because the mere presence of a woman suggests that anti- female sentiments are socially unacceptable. Yet the model on which NORC's work, and indeed most survey interviewing is based, assumes that the interviewer functions as a

- I the family Change has come with a vengeance to role of government in social and economic the American family, change that has per- behavior. NORC's research in this area in- haps been faster, deeper, and more far- vestigates the relationship between the reaching than that experienced by any other demographic changes and the changing major social institution. There are at thii mo- functions of the family, and uses the family ment more households of one, persons liv- as an integrative, key element in understand- ing alone by choice or necessity, than at any ing recent social patterns. In a group of other time in history. There are more single projects funded largely by the National-In- persons, most of them female and many of stitute of Chid Health and Human Develop- them young, heading households with chil- ment and also by the National Science dren. More women are working outside the Foundation, The Hewlett Foundation, and home now than ever before. Marriages are others, NORC economists have addressed fewer and later, divorces more frequent. The these issues. state has become more involved in the care The publication in 1981 of A Treatise of children with special needs, taking the on the Family by Research Associate Gary place first of parents and then of voluntary S. Becker (Harvard University Press) was agencies. both the culmination of over two decades Change has come as well to research of research on the family by Becker and a on the family. A renewed sense of the fa- starting point for further research. The land- mily's importance and a growing sense of ur- mark book develops an economic approach gency about the effects of change on it have to the study of the family. Becker's goal was moved both researchers and sponsors to de- much broader than analysis of the material vote attention and resources to this area. Re- aspects of family behavior; he set out instead cent decades have seen substantial growth to develop a theoretical framework for anal- in the research literature on the family and zying many aspects of family Me-marriage, the development of new approaches to un- births, and divorce, for example-using the derstanding the family. economic tools developed for the study of NORC's research on the family partici- material behavior. pates in these'changes. Studies focus on is- In 1983-84 Becker continued his re- sues of current, and enduring, importance. search on aspects of the economics of the These include the distribution of wealth in family. A paper entitled "Human Capital and among families, adolescent pregnancy, and the Rise and Fall of Families," is the re- and the care of children by parents and the sult of one inquiry, by Becker and Research state. The research approaches include ap- Associate Nigel S. Tomes of the University plication d the principles of economics to of Western Ontario. Becker and Tomes have the famify and the development of databases developed a model of the transmission of on children in the custody of the state. earnings, assets, and consumption from par- ents to children and later descendants. The The Economics of the Family model is based on utility maximizing by par- ents concerned about the welfare of their The changes in the family in recent children. The degree of intergenerational decades-in fertility, family formation and mobity, or the rise and fall of families, ij de- dissolution, female labor supply, schooling termined by the interaction of utility max- attainment, living arrangements, and mor- imizing behavior with investment and tality rates-have been accompanied by ma- consumption opportunities in different jor changes in the role of the family in generations, with the number of children in providing old-age economic security, in different families, and with dierent kinds of providing for the care and early education luck. Having examined a dozen empirical of children, in promoting the traditional sex- studies relating the earnings, income, and specific functions of wage-earner and assets of parents and children, Becker and homemaker. These changes. in social pat- Tomes conclude that, excepting families vic- terns have taken place in an economic con- timized by discrimination, regression to the text of growth in real income and continued mean in earnings in the United States and shii toward a service-intensive compositiQn other rich countries appears to be rapid, and of national output, and in a political context wipes out in three generations almost all the of first growth and now retrenchment in the advantages or disadvantages of ancestors. f In another recent paper, "Human Cap- an average of $38 per child for every $100 ital, Effort, and the Sexual Division of La- spent per adult. Looking at specific types of bor," Becker discusses the causes of the households, Lazear and Michael discovered recent-decade increases in the labor force that households with higher levels of edu-. participation rates of married women and cation and those with two employed adults provides a theoretical model of the sexual spend more money on children, even when division of labor. Becker summarizes this income is held constant. They found that work in The Sexual Division of Labor. black households spend a little less on chil- Economists, in their models and policy dren relative to adults than white households pronouncements, often act as if all house- do, but they also found that black house- hold members are in the same boat holds, with fewer adults and more children, economically. But experience suggests spend a larger proportion of the household otherwise. A relatively extreme example is income on children-33 percent for blacks supplied by the family in which all of the vs. 30 percent for whites. members make sacrifices for the education Like the allocation of resources in or career of one. These, and more com- households, participation in the labor force monly observed household behaviors, is a family affair. In a study entitled Estima- demonstrate that households allocate their tion of Models of Family Labor Supply, Re- resources among members in some nonran- search Associate Thomas E. MaCurdy, with dom and not necessarily equal manner. the assistance of Thomas Mroz, examined In their monograph-in-progress, "Allo- the relationship between husbands and cation of Income Within the Household," wives in this regard. In the theoretical por- Research Associates Edward P. Lazear and tion of their effor2, MaCurdy extended ex- Robert T. Michael investigate the allocation isting models of labor supply to take into of household resources among members, account the fact that households make asking theoretically and empirically what can choices in complicated environments where be learned about this allocation from expen- much about the future is uncertain, and diture survey data. They believe that under- where the presence of taxes intricately links standing this aspect of family behavior may the returns each spouse earns for an hour be important for understanding all kinds of of work. mechanisms that affect behavior-for exam- In the empirical portion of the project, ple, whether the allocation of space for quiet MaCurdy examined, among other things, study within the home helps explain the how one spouse adjusts his or her hours of differences in school performance. work in response to change in the wages of Lazear and Michael analyzed data from the other. Whereas previous empirical Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expen- studies have generally found evidence of be- diture Surveys for 1960-61 and 1972-73. havior that seemed to contradict some of the They found that for large composite goods more subtle implications of economic the- such as clothing and housing many charac- ory, MaCurdy's work finds confirmation of teristics of the family affect spending pat- these same implications. MaCurdy accounts terns. The family's level of income leads the for this difference by the fact that his work list of influential characteristics, but many relaxes several assumptions often made by other factors play a part, including the size economists. Earlier studies typically assumed of the family, the education of the head of that households make decisions with com- the household, the employment status of the plete knowledge, while he models the deci- husband and wife, the location of the resi- sion in a world of uncertainty. Some studies dence, and the race of the members. The restricted their attention to married couples characteristics of the family's chiidren- where both spouses work and thus failed to specifically, their sex, age, and employment recognize the importance of wives' decisions status-appear to affect spending as well. about entering the labor force. And most Having established these preliminary earlier efforts ignore the existence of taxes, findings about spending, Lazear and Michael which MaCurdy finds can have a significant move on to their essential question: How is impact on the labor force choices of mar- household income allocated between adults ried couples. on the one hand and children on the other? In a related study, Research Associates They found that, overall, households spend V. Joseph Hotz and Robert A. Miller are in-

4 2 The Sexual Division of Labor vestigating the dynamic relationship be- tween fertility and female labor force The labor force participation of married over women in Western countries has increased participation the lifecycle. Hotz and enomousty during the last 30 years. Initially, Miller will first develop theoretical models of the increase was concentrated among dder fertility and labor force participation deci- women, but it eventually spread to younger sions over the lifecycle fr~man economic women wtth small children. perspective and econometric models that The major cause of the increased labor can be applied to longitudinal data on fe- force participation of married women during males during their childbearing years. They the twentieth century appears to be their in- will then analyze data from the Panel Study creased earning power as the economy devel- of Income Dynamics to test hypotheses der- oped, including the rapid expansion of the ived from the theory and to examine the im- service sector. The growth in their earning power raised the forgone value of their time pact of women's demographic and spent at child care and other household ae- background characteristics on their decisions tMties, which reduced the demand for chil- about childbearing and working. dren and encowaged a substitution taward the A project begun recently by Research labor market. Associates James Heckman, Jan Hoem, The gain from marriage is reduced, and Joseph Hob, and Burton Singer dl use hence the attractiveness of divorce raised, by data from the United States and Sweden to higher earnbgs and labor force participation investigate sodoeconomic determinants of of mamid women, because the sexual division the timing and spacing of biiover the of labor within households becomes less ad- lifecycle. The first paper from this project, vantageous. Consequentfy, this Interpretation also implies the large growth in divorce rates witten by Heckman, Hotz, and James over time. The decline in the gain from mar- Walker (to be published in the American riage is reflected also in the indnum- Economic Review in 1985)' presents an em- ber BfYconsemwalunions" (unmdcouples pirid lnquby designed to confirm a s& of living together), the large increase in families "styliid facts" about fertility dynamics in headed by women, and euen partly in the large Sweden. The inquiry employs a statistical growth in illegitimate birth rates relative to framework that can use continuous event legitimate rates during recent decades. history data on births, and can take account Divorce rates, fsrtillty, and labor force of issues such as marital and divorce deci- partkipation rates of women also interact in sions and periods of infertility foilowmg various other ways. For example, fertility is reduced when divorce becomes more likely, births. The early results of this project pint because child care is more ditacult after a mar- to the uulnerablbty of the accepted stylized riage dissolves. There is &dance that couples who anticipate relatively high probabilities of dhrorce do have fewer children, The labor for- earnings and affect the jobs of married women participation of women is also af6ected when by reducing their time in the labor force and divorce rates increase, not only because discouraging their investment in market hu- divorced women participate more My, but man capital. also because married women will partidpate My paper also develops a model of an in- more as protection against the Bnancial ad- dividual's allocation of energy among differ- versity of a subsequent divorce. ent activities. More enesgy is spent on each In my paper on sexllal division of labor 1 hour of more energy-intensive activities, and arrnre *at increasing returns from wedid the ratio of the energy per hour in any two ac- h-an capital is a powerful force creating a tivities depends only on their effort intensities division of labor in the abcatian of time and and not at all on the stack of energys utility investments in human capital even among ba- fundion, money income*docation of time*or sically idemtical persons. However, increasing human capital. Other implications are derived returns alone do not imply the traditional sex- about the cost of time to di&rent activities. ual division of labor, with women having pri- the eIIect of hours worked on hourly earnings, mary responsibilities for many household the effect of dgson investment in health, activities, unless men and women tend to Bif- and the effect of an increase in the energy fer in their comparative advantages between spent on each hour of work on the beneb household and market ecthtlbiee. Whatever the from investment in market human capital. reason for the traditional division-wrhaps Since housework is more dbrt intensive discrimination against women or high than leisure and other household activities. fertility-housework responsibthties lower the married women spend less energy on each facts about the timing of fertility over ing the completion of schooling, the start of women's lifecycles to the assumptions typi- full-time work, and establishment of an in- cally made about common, unmeasured dependent residence. But perhaps no event characteristics of these women. is more closely associated with adulthood than the establishment of one's own family Forming Families: through marriage or childbearing. The tran- Expectations and Behavior sitions marking the passage to adulthood are each regulated to some extent by the social The movement from youth to adult- system. Though it seems clear that there are hood is not marked by a single event or mo- commonly held beliefs, or norms, about the ment in time but by passage through a ages at which it is appropriate to undergo number of transitional experiences includ- various life course transitions, there is very little empirical research documenting their existence. In research supported by The Spencer Foundation, Dennis P. Hogan and Amy Ong Tsui examined the expectations of young people concerning the major events in their own transitions to adulthood. Using data from two major surveys of youth conducted by NORC-High School and Beyond and the National Longitudinal Survey of Labor Force Behavior, Youth Cohort-Hogan and Tsui confirmed the existence of these norms for adolescents and found that they were formed in a systematic fashion, consistent with the young person's life experiences and plans for the future. Consistency about the appropriate order of events was most pro- nounced in the area of family formation. Three quarters of males and 68 percent of females expect to complete school before manying and even more (90 percent of both Gary S. Becker sexes) expect to complete school before their first child is born. Most of the young people in the surveys also expect to begin work at a regular job before marriage or childbirth. This finding characterizes females as well as males, suggesting strong similarity between the sexes in early labor force commitment. Hogan and Tsui found significant differ- ences in their analysis as well. To take one example, whites, on the whole, expect to avoid childbirth before mamage, Hispanics are somewhat more likely than whites to ex- pect to have a child before marriage, and blacks are much more likely than either to expect childbirth not only before marriage, but also while still living in the parental home, while still enrolled in school, and be- fore beginning work. These differences sug- gest that the higher black rates of unmarried childbearing are at least partly the result of differing expectations rather than simply the unintended consequences of differences in , , , .. ,J , -1. . Gary S. Becker 1 sexual activity, contraceptive use, attitudes toward abortion, and marriage. todial parent, and the taxpayer. Investigating the actual behavior of Several NORC projects begun in 1983- young people in these areas was the focus 84 are designed to shed light in this area. of a study by Research Assodates Robert One will provide the first comprehensive Michael and Nancy Brandon Tuma. This re- profile of absent parents, the other is search used data from the youth survey of designed to obtain data on the flow of the DoL/NLS to investigate early entry into resources among family members living in marriage and parenthood by young men separate households and to explain analy- and women. The NLS/Youth data reflect tically the failure of absent parents to meet the tremendous difference in behavior their financial responsibilities. among youth of diering racial and ethnic The Survey of Absent Parents, spon- backgrounds in age at entry into marriage sored by the Office of Child Support En- and parenthood. The most striking contrast forcement and the Office of the Assistant found by ,Michael and Tuma occurs between Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, U.S. black and white females. Young white Department of Health and Human Services, women are much more likely than young will gather information from both absent and black women to have married by age 20 (28 custodial parents, but it is the absent parent percent versus 14percent), but young black about which less is known. This study will women are much more likely to have borne first seek out and interview absent parents a chid (39 percent for blacks versus 18 per- to provide a more reliable socioeconomic cent for whites). Michael and Tuma at- and demographic pmfile of that population tempted to assess the influence of family and then will determine the factors that ex- background variables on the age at which plain chid support payment performance, youths enter these adult roles. The factors whatever its character. It will also examine studied included the educational attainment the pattern of support obligations, both cases of a youth's mother and father, the number for which obligations are established by of siblings, the family structure in which the courts and those for which they are not. youth grew up, religion, region, city size, and The study, which is being directed by so forth. Using a statistical scheme called a NORC Senbr Survey Director Geraldine proportional hazards model, with data on Mooney and done in cooperation with the the date the youth married, Michael and Urban Institute, presents a formidable chal- Tuma traced the pattern of first marriage for lenge. NORC interviewers will both abstract whites, blacks, and Hispanics and explained data from court and administrative records a large percentage of the differences in the and locate and interview the custodial and age of first marriage by the measured family absent parents. The findings from the study background factors within each of these will inform developing policy in this critical race-ethnic groups. But the family back- area. ground variables failed to explain the very large differences in behavior between white Related work by NORC Research As- and black youth. Generally, similar qualita- sociate Robert J. Willis and his colleague tive results are found when age at first birth Yoram Weiss examined why many divorced is analyzed. fathers (commonly the noncustodial par- ents) fail to comply with court-mandated child support awards, allowing their chil- Financial Responsibility dren's welfare to suffer as a consequence of for Children divorce. They explore the notion that chil- dren are, from the point of view of parents, The failure to support children on the collective consumption goods. From this, part of parents who do not live with them, they derive an explanation of failure to pay whether the parents have never mamied or child support: The noncustodial parent loses their marriages have ended in divorce, has motivation to provide support of children become a national scandal. The Child Sup- with the loss of their society and of control port Enforcement Amendments of 1984 over how money is spent on their behalf. recognized the seriousness of this problem Willis and Weiss also explain why custody and attempted to address the problems it rights and alimony transfers often go in the creates for the involved children, the cus- same diiection, usually to the wife, and why f uneven distribution of income between gued thai there is no use in trying to disentan- spouses increases the probability of divorce. gle alimony (or spouse support) from child The financial and behavioral conse- support. Neither courts nor noncdodial par- quences of divorce, particularly resource ents can monitor or control how each dollar flows within families and between in- is spent in the family with custody, and only under rather unusual conenscan transfers dividuals, is one locus of interest in a pro- in kind (transfers of things like clothing, tui- ject led by Research Associates Robert tion. or orthodontia) be an effedh way d con- Michael and Robert Willis. The project is a trolling how resources are allocated in the supplement to the Fifth l%llowup of the Na- custodial family. tional bngitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 (NLS-72; see Education). Instead, we assume that the custodial fa- This fifth survey, of 14,000 of the original mily will allocate all income among members 22,000 respondents, will be fielded in 1986, in the way we estimate families to do using the and the questions comprised by the supple- Bureau of Labor Statistics' data aets known as ment will be asked along with NLS-72's core the "Consumer Expenditure Surveys." We questions on schooling and labor market be- show that if the objective is to provide each havior. Other focuses of interest for the sup- child with the same amount of income after divorce as before the divorce, it is very likely plement include the collection and analysis that the custodial parent will end up with very of continuous event histories in the areas of little, relatively. In fact, the adverse effect on marital and fertility history and the mapping the custodial parent of such a criterton is of time and money flows between the re- enough to convince us that a different criterion spondent and his or her relevant others. The shbuld be used. The criterion we adopt is that larger project is sponsored by the National the two households (the household ofthe non- Center for Education Statistics; the supple- custodial parent and the household ofthe cus- ment, by the the National Institute of Child todial parent and children) should have Health and Human Development. income in proportion to the adult-equlivaient In Guidelines for Child Support Pay- size. This criterion uses the household as the relevant unit, implying that nonmembers of ments By Noncustodial Parents, Michael that household cannot in any practical way af- presents a summary of work on this topic fect the allocation within. With this criterion, from a study discussed earlier in this chapter. we can take account of issues like joint cus- tody, remarriage, and the incomes of the spouses. Guidelines for Child Support Payments by As we attempt to provide a useful set of .Noncustodial Parents tables that reflect the implications of our as- In our monograph "qllocation of Income sumptions and estimates for the transfers from Within the Household," Edward hear and I noncustodial to custodial household, we con- use two large micro data sets with informa- front several issues that have not been well tion on the detailed expenditure patterns of researched. For example, the 6xed costs as- households to attempt to measure how a sociated with joint custody may be quite large household's income is apportioned among if two households maintain a child's bedroom members. As one of the products of that re- while the child spends part of each time period search we have an equation that describes with each parent. how a household's characteristics affect its spending on the children as compared to the Regarding the measure of income to be adults. That equation can be used to estimate used in calibrating the transfer, we argue for how much each child gets both in intact fam- a rather broad concept of income and suggest ilies and in one-adult families after divorce has a way to take account of the fact that some occurred. Consequently, that equation can in- changes in income over time are pure luck, form us about how much income a noncusto- while others reflect decisions made by the in- dial parent would have to transfer to a come earner. We suggest a way to take custodial parent in order, for example, to pro- account of the luck component without under- vide the child with the same level of income mining the individuals' incentive to earn all he as was received when the family was intact. or she might earn. We have calculated that figure and have calculated as well the amount to be transferred from noncustodial to custodial parents under several other criteria. In our study we have ar- Robert T. Michael f Adolescent Parenthood In Support, or in Place, of Parents: Children and the State The phenomenon of adolescent parent- hood has attracted considerable attention in Over the last two decades the states recent years. This has contributed to a widely I have assumed significantly greater respon- held view that adolescent parenthood is a , sibility for the care of children with special growing problem among teenagers in the needs-the handicapped, the abused, the United States. While the special hardships homeless-needs formerly attended to that young parents face in raising children de- serve our concern and attention, the facts are largely by voluntary agencies. The Children's that rates of teenage childbearing have been Policy Research Project, housed in NORC's decUning for all but the very young& girls for Social Policy Research Center, was estab- a number of years. In absolute numbers, there lished in 1980 to assess this changed rela- were more babies born to teenagers in the tionship between children and the state. The early 19608 than in the early 1980s. Adoles- project, under the direction of NORC Cen- cent childbearing is not approaching the "epi- demic" levels frequently reported in the press. The more signi6icant change aaecting the welfare of adolescent parents and their chil- dren is the rising of young mothers who do not marry the father and who assume the responsibilities of raising their children on their own. Because children born to single teenaged parents are very likely to spend their formative years in poverty and because single teenaged parents tend to remain deptdent on public assisfmce for a long time, it is this population of young parents that NQRC's pro- gram of research on adolescent parenthood seeks to understand. The research began in 1981, with the Adolescent Family Lifo Study, which surveyed a sample of over 1,900 lIlinois mothers aged 17 years old or younger who were receiving Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC). The preconception that most of these young parents were struggling alone was dis- pelled by the finding that well over one-half ot the respondents were residing at the time with one or both oftheir parents. Lsss than 20 per- cent were raising cwdren alone in their own than a high school education. For 45 percent quarters. Furthermore, over one-third of the of Be white respondents and 36 percent of the young mothers were enrolled in high school. Hirespondents, schooldr~~ with childcare prodded mostly by the girls' preceded pregnancy with their first child. By mothers. Manv remrted a desire to continue contrast, only 5 percent of the black respon- with their edu&tion beyond high echoal, and dents had dropped out of school prior to preg- nearly all expected to be working in a few nancy. Once a young girl dropped out of yew. school, followup intervfews showed that she The 1983 and 1984 bUowup interviews was wry unlikely to return to complete her with a subsample of 500 of the original re- education. Most ofthe high school graduates spondents were designed to learn about the in the sample were women who had managed longer term coneequencss of adolescsnt to remain continuously in school throughout paremthaod, espeddy with respect to the con- their pregnancies and after childbirth. Con- tinued educational achievement and possible tinuous attendance in school was more future financial independence of adolescent character&tic of black than of white or mothers. The slightly opsv&w &Wed Hbpanic women and was essodated with re- from the 1981 survey was tempered by the maining in the parents' household, reporting 1983 and 1984 Bndings. Only one-half of the college aspirations in the initial survey, and girls who were enrolled in school in 1981 had delaybg subsequent pregnancy with a second managed to complete their high school edu- claw. cation or to obtain a GED. Nearly 75 percent The low ducatbnal attainment of adoles- ofthe young girls intewkad in 1984 had lecrrr cent mothers is one of the major reasons for 9 ter Director Harold Richman and Research in evidence on this part of it. The original Associate Mark Testa, uses the State of State of the Child involved collaboration with Illinois as a microcosm. the Governor's human services subcab'iet, The Project has pursued several and its data sources included Illinois vital studies, some of which are reported below, statistics, census data, and published reports and has published two volumes in its Chil- of the various Illinois human services depart- dren in lllinois series and is at work on a ments. The updated volume will be a prod- third. The fit volume in the series, The uct of collaboration with the State's newly State of the Child, by Mark Testa and Fred formed Chid Policy Study Group. Wulczyn, presented data on numerous Each year approximately one-half mil- topics affecting the conditions under which lion teenaged women in the United States children live in Illinois. When published in give birth and take up the responsibilities of 1980 it was greeted with strong ediirial sup- parenthood. A major source of govern- port from the major Chicago newspapers, mental support to adolescent parents is the and Illinois Governor James Thompson ap- weIfare program Aid to Families with Depen- pointed a Task Force on Children to develop dent Children. In order to learn more about recommendations from the study's findings. this growing segment of the state welfare One of the recommendations of the population, the Illinois Departments of Pub- Governor's Task Force was that a state-of- lic Aid and Public Health sponsored a the-child report should be updated and reis- statewide survey of over 1,900 adolescent sued every three to five years. With fund- mothers receiving AFDC in 1981, and The ing from the Fry Foundation, the Project is Joyce Foundation provided funds for the preparing an updated State of the Child for analysis of the survey data. Additional fund- release in December 1985. This edition will ing from the federal Office of Adolescent update areas covered in the earlier volume, Pregnancy Programs enabled NORC to rein- including demographics, family life, poverty, terview a panel of 500 of the original respon- foster care and adoption, health, violence, dents, living in Cook County, Illinois, in youth alienation, education, and employ- 1983 and 1984. The purpose of the Adoles- ment, and will add new sections on chil- cent Family Life Study, directed by Mark dren's mental health and living environment Testa, is to examine the relationship between (housing, recreation, neighborhood safety). the young mothers' access to and use of for- The cooperation between researchers mal and informal help and sentices and their and state agencies that has characterized the abiity to achieve self-sufficiency through work done under the Project is very much educational achievement, employment, and

their long-term dependence on public assis- obligations. Another is to establish special pro- tance. Efforts to move off the welfare rolls are grams to aid young mothers in completing often frustrated by lack of job oppoptunities, their educations and in finding jobs. Still an- even for those with a high schoal diploma. other is to intervene early to prevent pregnan- Overall. 32 percent of the respondents cies in the first place. States have begun reported being off AFDC for some period of drafting legislation and developing programs time. However, one-half eventually resumed in all of these areas. The early results show participation in the program. Only 14 percent that the problems of adolescent pregnancy and of the respondents interviewed in 1981 were parenthood will not be quickly alleviated, and not receiving any form of public assistance in that a comprehensive solution will require our 1984. One-third of these were not receiving paying greater attention to the opportunities AFDC because they were receiving support afforded young people, especially the poor. in from another person, usually by marriage; an- our society. An improved educational environ- other one-third had obtained employment; ment and better job opportunites for the young and the remaining one-third were not receiv- will still leave those at the bottom of the class ing aid for other reasons. and at the bottom of the economic ladder who The increased public role in the support see early parenthood as a pathway to adult- of adolescent mothers and their children has hood, yet it is important that our society make stimulated interest in developing alternatives these efforts at improvement in order that our to long-term welfare dependency. One option young people may have a greater stake in is to pursue more vigorously the disclosure of avoiding early pregnancy and childbirth. paternity and the enforcement of child support Mark Testa other alternatives to welfare. Testa describes one chid. (Though the program serves all the study and some of its findings in Adoles- races, the experiment is limited to black par- cent Parenthood. ticipants to improve the statistical power of The need of these young mothers, and the analysis.) The research design calls for their children, is clear. Less clear is the most these women to be interviewed twice, once effective means for assisting them. In an ef- at the time the experimental group begins fort to determine how they might best be to receive services and a second time eight- helped to complete their schooling, delay een months later. The interview data is to additional pregnancies, and achieve finan- be supplemented by records data; the pro- cial independence, the State of Illinois de- gress of all experimental cases through the veloped the Young Parents Program. program is to be tracked in monthly sum- Although the development of programs is maries of activity on each case. The second sometimes influenced by research findings, major component of the evaluation is an im- it is frequently the case that there is no relia- plementation analysis, a qualitative investi- ble information on which to base important gation of the development and operation of programmatic decisions. The development the program using ethnomethodological of the Young Parents Program was aided by approaches. the existence of data from the Adolescent In addition to the main substantive find- Family Life project just described. Based to ings from this group of studies, which should a great extent on the findings from that sur- illuminate the policy problems posed by vey, the Illinois Department of Public Aid de- young parents and the effects of specific vised a social service program consisting of state-sponsored interventions, the an orientation; workshops on such topics as researchers hope that these projects will nutrition, bih control, and job finding; and shed light on how private, university-based follow-up work on topics of particular in- social research centers can work coopera- terest to individuals. The State's access to re- tively with state officials in the detection of cent and relevant data permitted the clear social problems, the development of social identification of both the target group and programs, and the evaluation of those the goals of the intervention. programs. Though this project had a firm, data- When parents cannot care for their chi- based beginning, the State wished to evalu- dren, the state often intervenes. Substitute ate its effectiveness in practice and so has care is one of the mechanisms through sponsored the Young Parents Program which states take responsibility for children. Evaluation. This project, directed by NORC Through substitute care, the state, while re- Research Associates John Schuerman and taining ultimate responsibility for children in Fred Wulczyn, is a social experiment with need, shares the responstbility by placing random assignment of young mothers to the children with foster parents and with church treatment and control conditions. Like the and voluntary agencies providing group- design of the State's program, the design of home and institutional care. The pro3lems the study was heavily influenced by the of managing this shared responsibility are previous research project. Findings from that formidable. The State of Illinois, for em- study, and from The State of the Child, ple, currently serves 14,000 children in sub- helped in the specification of the sample, stitute care, and caseworkers commonly alerted the team to potential field problems, supervise 50 to 75 children on placement. and provided a basis for developing the sur- Making reliable information detailing pro- vey questionnaire. Most of the items from gress toward achieving case plans regularly the Adolescent Family Life Study are available to case managers is one means of repeated in this survey to provide additional, ensuring that children are returned to the comparable data for the analysis. care of their parents as soon as is possible, The evaluation has two major compo- that they are not left to languish in bad situ- nents. The first is a rigorously controlled so- ations, or simply ignored. cial experiment involving 500 young In another cooperative effort, NORC women, 350 in the experimental group and researchers are working with the State of 150 in the control group. The sample is Illinois Department of Children and Family limited to black women between 15 and 20 Services (DCFS) to restructure the depart- years of age who are unmarried and have ment's database on children in foster care. 4 The goal of this project, directed by Mark Testa and funded by The Edna McConnell Clark Foundation, is to integrate research and administrative uses of computerized data on children under state guardianship to improve the management of foster care. The database will eventually contain infor- mation on approximately 100,000 children who have received service from DCFS. This wealth of information will be available through a network of microcomputers to child welfare staff at all levels of the organi- zation, from caseworkers in the field to policy planners, and to researchers. The system is now being tested and its usefulness for management and case decisions is being as- sessed in two DCFS field offices.

Health and health care are major issues Health Care- Doctors, in contemporary America. One of the ma- Hospitals, Patients jor continuing stories is the rising cost of Health care in the United States is dis- health care. The costs associated with ad- pensed in myriad settings. Patients may be vances in care and with the greater amount seen, for example, in physicians' offices of care required by an aging and longer lived housing one or twenty doctors, in hospital population are staggering. The National emergency rooms or inpatient departments Center for Health Statistics reported that in in urban centers or rural outposts, or in such 1982, for example, health care expenditures recently developed practice settings as in the United States totaled $322.4 billion, Health Maintenance Organizations. an average of $1,365 per person. And be- Since 1973, NORC has worked with tween 1981 and 1982 the medical care the National Center for Health Statistics to component of the Consumer Price Index in- develop a picture of the care given patients creased 11.6 percent, while the overall CPI in one segment of this universe-the physi- increased only 6.1 percent These facts have cian's office. Until the launching of the Na- led to many questions: Who gets care? Can tional Ambulatory Medical Care Smey it be denied, for financial reasons, to those (NAMCS)there were no systematic data on in life or death situations? How can the costs such care, the major source of care for the of care be cut? And, ultimately, who pays? ambulatory. This last question is particularly pointed The study posed significant challenges, when the cost of care is absorbed by govem- requiring as it did that researchers elicit com- ment through Medicare, Medicaid, and mitment to the research from busy and other programs. sometimes resistant physicians and pene- trate the privacy of the doctor's office with- The cost crisis has led to an exarnina- out doing violence to the privileged tion of the traditional means by which peo- doctor-patient relationship. But NORC con- ple receive medial care, and variations on ducted the study successfully on an annual the traditional settings are a major and con- basis from 1973through 1981, and in 1983- tinuing story. The single-doctor office and 84 began work on the tenth round of re- the hospital emergency room are being sup- search. In NAMCS: Groundbreaking Sur- plemented, and in some cases supplanted, vey, Widely Used Data, Paul B, Sheatsley, by newly developed or increasingly used an NORC Senior Survey Director who has practice settings. Group practices are more been associated with NAMCS since its in- common, HMOs are growing in size and ception, presents a summary of the project number, and convenience care centers are and its applications. appearing in shopping malls. Throughout its history, NAMCS has The abuse of drugs is another major proven to be an excellent laboratory for test- story of our times, one with the greatest im- ing the feasibility of collecting additional data portance for the health and well-being of the on health care. The largest and most recent population. And the drug problem is not of the NAMCS spinoffs is HAMCS, the alone in presenting a new, or newly urgent, Hospital-Based Ambulatory Care Study. threat to the nation's health. The tragic and Fielded in 1983, HAMCS was a feasibility alarming spread of AIDS, the poisonous ef- study designed to determine whether the fects of the technology that we mean to picture of ambulatory health care in the serve us, the aftereffects of service in war- United States could be made more complete these have all caught the attention, and of- by the addition of data on the care given in ten raised the anxiety, of the public. hospital emergency rooms and outpatient departments. The study, conducted in some In its 1983-84 efforts to address these forty hospitals in four areas, determined that, and other health concerns, NORC con- in general, the procedures developed for tinued a long tradition of breaking new NAMCS can be effectively applied in a ground in conducting research in this area. hospital setting. Based on the results of In NORC's Health Care Research: A ! HAMCS, NORC was able to provide NCHS of Fi,Pearl Zinner, an Associate hec- with recommendations for optimal design of tor and Special Assistant to the Director of sampling and data collection procedures, to NORC, presents the highlights of this history. be used in the event that NCHS undertakes # a full-scale monitoiing of ambulatory care broader than that of the previous ones, provided by hospitals. reflecting the changing structure of health As NAMCS and HAMCS are aimed at care delivery in the United States. Whereas, providing basic data on the nature of the for example, the earlier studies interviewed health care provided to Americans, another only physicians in private, office-based prac- NORC survey is aimed at providing basic tices, the current study includes all physi- data on the factors that determine the cost cians providing care to private patients, of care. The Physician's Practice Costs and including those in the newer forms of prac- Income Survey of 1984 builds on an impor- tice structure-Health Maintenance Organi- tant series of surveys conducted by NORC zations, Preferred Provider Organizations, in the 1970s to assist the Health Care and Independent Practice Associations. The Financing Administration in containing study will also explore physician attitudes to- Medicare costs and ridding the Medicare sys- ward new government attempts to~control tem of inequities. the costs of care, including the prospective In 1976-78, NORC surveyed physi- and DRG (diagnosis-related-group)systems cians on their practice costs so that HCFA of payment, which have raised many ques- could assess the Medicare Economic Index, tions about the tradeoffs between cost con- a congressionally mandated device for tainment and quality of care. governing reimbursements to physicians The survey employs NORC's CAT1 providing services to patients under Medi- (computer-assistedtelephone interviewing) care. The ME1 was designed to tie allowa- system, a state-of-the-art approach to data ble physician charges under Medicare to the collection in which interviewers read the sur- actual costs of practicing medicine, rather vey questions from a video display terminal than to the prevailing charges in an area. and key the respondents' answers directly The ME1 was applied in 1975 and has been into the datafile. in effect ever since. Early in this period, NORC took on the evaluation of its HCFA contracted with NORC to survey own earlier work in another major health several thousand private practice physicians care study in 1983-84. The current project on their practice costs, such as wages and is evaluating various features of the National salaries, malpractice insurance, and office Medical Care Utilization and Expenditures space. From these data, HCFA calculated Survey. This was the second of two large average costs, forecasted estimates of wage, national household surveys on medical space, and malpractice costs, among others, problems, use of heahh services, and expen- and used these projections In setting an al- ditures for health care in which NORC par- lowable rate of increase in Medicare pay- ticipated in the 1970s. The purpose of the ments to physicians. current project is to evaluate the appropri- The 1984 survey began with an evalu- ateness of the imputation procedures used ation of the methodology used in the three on NMCUES and the cost-effectiveness of earlier surveys. Following an extensive pre- various features of that survey, in anticipa- test, NORC Senior Swey Dictor Mary C. tion of designing a maximally effective third Burich and the study's Principal Investiga- survey scheduled for feasibility testing in tors, Jerry Cromwell and Janet Mitchell of 1985-86. Health Economics Research, Inc., reevalu- In addition to these broad-based studies .ated the objectives of the survey and the of major issues in health care, NORC has methodologies appropriate for developing conducted resemh on numerous specific is- an optimal data set from physicians on their sues and populations. Such a study is the practice costs, reimbursement, and related Adolescent and kung Adult Health Project: issues. A Longitudinal Study of Health in Harlem, Guided by this evaluation, the full-scale which NORC conducted for Ann Brunswick study of 5,000 physicians in various specialty of the Division of Sociomedical Sciences, areas now in progress will provide HCFA School of Public Health, Columbia Univer- with current information for recalculating the sity. Fifielded in 1968, this study began Medicare Economic Index. It will also col- by interviewing a cross-section of adoles- lect data on several issues that are of interest cents living in Harlem, a community seen to the study of patient care in general. The as a predictor of conditions in other inner- scope of the present study is considerably city neighborhoods. The subjects were 4 NORC's Health Care Research: I twelve to sewtsen pars old when first in- A Series of Firsts terviewed, and seven yam ddkat the I of the first followup interview. in 1983-84, NORC has been in the vanguard of re- search on health, both substantively and I NQRC agab InMenud thes raspondents methodologically, for over three decades. 1 on a hadriqp d health ad &tied While these pioneering studies have included ~,~~w~~wofh~ several that were concerned with social issues services; pmomal hat& mhas &&it%g, related to public health-including Shirley eaflng, and smokhg; drug use and attitudes Star's 1950 study of public attitudes toward toward it; and oqhenth-. mental illness and the first longitudinal survey Th& pmject & he of drug abusers-the majority have been con- h& problems d the nation's young ttrban cerned with incidence of illness and the pro- pmr and has had high vl;sTbihty .in the of of &ion health care. Highlights this histoy emmunity, findings he follow. Harlem The from first wave led to the creation of an adoles- A Study of the Prevalence of at Chronic lltness and Needs for Care cehealth cbk Wern Hospital. his in a Rural Area, fielded in 1952, unit conthues to wrae the Harlem was the earliest systematic compari- cam mu^. son of health conditions and symp- toms reported by the public with clinical tindings from a medid ex- amination of the same respondentss In 1953, the H& lnformatian Foundation (HIF) and NORC con- ducted the first national survey of health expenditures based on per- sonal interviews with a probability sample of households-Family Med- ical Costs and Vdunkwy Health In- surance: A Nationwide Survey. This was also the first study to evaluate national family medd costs, the extent of voluntary health insurance, and the impact of insurance on cosb.' NORC and HIF (later the Center for Health Administration Studies at The University of Chicago) subsequently conducted three related surveys, in 1958, 1963, and 1971, that bdt on the earlier research. ~ttitudes.mation, and ~u&"-'~ tomary Behavior in Health Matters. conducted h 1955, was the first study ever to examine the attitudes Physicians was the &st survey of of the general population t-d physichs' attitudes toward Medi- physicians. It was a4so the first to care and Medicaid. and toward ask respondents to rate their health government participation in the pro- as ''excellent, good, fair, or poor," a vision of health care. Thh panel scale that became a standard item study, whtch interviewed physicians in health surveys. both before and after the passagt? of The Health of Older People, con- Medicare, was also the first swrvey ducted by Ethel Shanas in 1957. of physicians gver conducted by tel- was the first national survey to in- ephone. The Principal Investigator terview a sample of the population was dohn Colombotos of the Col- over 65 years d age. umbia University School of Public Health. Coducted in four waves between 1964 and 1970, the Pre- and Post- Physicians View Social Change in Medicare Study of New York State Medicine (1973) was the Arst large- .r A Major Health Problem: Drug and juana, and such hard drugs as ampheta- Alcohol Abuse mines, cocaine, and barbiturates. An early goal of the study was to in- Drug use, one of the health issues co- vestigate the reiative influence of parents and vered by the Adolescent and Young Adult peers on drug use, and to identify both the Health Project, was the central focus of an- nature of families withii which drug use de- other longitudinal study of young people. velops and the family processes that pro- Family Processes in Adolescent Drug Use, mote or deter the use of drugs among a survey conducted by NORC for Denise adolescents. Parental influence was exam- Kandel of the Research hundation for Men- ined both independently and relative to that tal Hygiene and Columbia University's of peers. Prtrents and the respondents' School of Public Health, has followed the reported "best school friends" were also in- drug abuse behavior of a sample of New terviewed in the second wave of the study. York youths since 1971. On three occasions The former high school students are over the thirteen-year period, respondents now in their late twenties and the social con- have been asked whether or not, and how text of their drug use has changed accord- often, they use cigarettes, alcohol, mari- ingly. A new feature of the 1984 study is a set of questions designed to determine the characteristics of social networks that sup- port drug use, focusing on the respondent's scale national study of such issues relationship with family, spouse, and friends as Medicare, community participa- tion in the delivery of health care. in the use of drugs. In support of this inquiry, the role of paramedics, and treat- interviewers left questionnaires with the ment of the terminally ill. respondents' spouses or partners to com- Fht fieMed in 1977, the National plete and mail. Analysis of data from the first two Medical Care Expenditures Suhrsy (NMCES) was the first lon@fdhal waves of the survey revealed increased use eunay ever to dect health exre of both drugs and alcohol as the respon- data from a national sample of dents moved from their high school years - households. It employed several to their mid-twenties. In 1971, less than one- strategies for improving the ac- third of the respondents had tried marijuana; curacy of respondent reporting, in- by 1980, almost three-fourths had tried it. clvding intderua repeated at three In 1971, only 21 percent of the respondents to four month intervals and a com- had used hard liquor more than ten times; puterized summary of previously by 1980,82percent had done so. Findings reported data. from analysis of the data from the third wave The Physicians* Practice Costs Sur- of interviewing, which will take respondents vey was the first in a series of sur- from their mid-twenties to their late twen- veys conducted in the mid-1970s to ties, will be available in spring of 1985. provide the Health Care Financing Admintstration (HCFA) with infor- The longitudinal design of this survey, mation necessary to recalculate the in which the same individuals are inter- Medicare Economic Index estab- viewed at selected points over a period of lished by the Soda1 Security Act. time, was chosen to allow researchers con- cerned with drug abuse to analyze patterns In 1984, NORC began two projects that are of behavior at different ages and in diier- conttnuations of earlier groundbreaking re- ent circumstances. The value of this ap- search mentioned in this chapter. The Physi- proach for enhancing our understanding of cians' Practice Cost and Income Survey of 1984 will evaluate the studies of phpsidans' drvg abuse led researchers to take advan- practice costs conducted for HCFA, as das tage of an existing longitudinal study for this providing HCFA with current idomation on purpose. In 1984, the National Longitudi- the mane topics cowered in the earlier ameys. nal Survey of Labor Force Behavior, Youth The Natiad Ambulatary lkledicul Care !%&, Cohort (described in The Labor Fwce) in- which collected data annually from 1973 to cluded a series of questions on tobacco, 1981, is once again in progress. drug, and alcohol use, sponsored by the Na- tional Institute on Drug Abuse. Respondents Pearl Zinnsr were also asked what drugs, if any, they had used while at work or on active military duty. NAMCS: Groundbreaking Suwey, Widely These questions were put to the over 12,000 Used Data young men and women who are part of the Until the inception of the National Am- NLS. bulatory Medical Care Survey in 1973, the na- If a longitudinal approach is important ture and content of the hundreds of millions in the study of drug abuse, it is essential in of office visits that Americans pay to physi- evaluations of the long-term effects of drug cians each year were something of a mystery. treatment. DARP, formally entitled Followup Information about these visits, which account Interviews with Ex-Clients of Drug Abuse for four out of five of all patient-physician en- Treatment Centers Reporting to the Drug counters, was at that time limited to the Abuse Reporting Program, is such a study. retrospective reports (often based on faulty or The Drug Abuse Reporting Program pro- incomplete knowledge or memory) of respon- dents to household surveys, or to retrospec- vides a system for accounting for individuals tive reports of limited or unrepresentative who approach agencies supported by the samples of physicians. Narcotic Addict Rehabilitation Branch of the In the early seventies, NORC, working National Institute of Mental Health for treat- with researchers at the National Center for ment. The purpose of the DARP research Health Statistics and with a national panel of was to examine the experiences of persons medical and public health experts, devised and treated for drug abuse in thirty centers tested a methodology for sampling office- throughout the United States since their based physicians and inducing them to report most recent contact with a treatment agency basic information about the patient visits they in the Drug Abuse Reporting Program. received during a randomly selected week of the calendar year. During the years 1973- NORC first became involved in DARP 1981, about 3,000 physicians a year reported in 1974, interviewing a sample of 1,800 per- details of some 40.000 office visits. Items of sons admitted to treatment in 1969-1971, information included date of visit; patient's and 2,200 persons admitted between 1971 age, sex, race, and ethnicity; complaints, and 1972; NORC did followup interviews symptoms, or other reason for visit; the phy- for this study in 1977. In 1983-84, NORC sician's diagnosis; diagnostic and therapeutic reinterviewed a subsample of 700 respon- services provided, including medications ad- dents. In spite of the formidable challenge ministered or prescribed; duration of visit; and of locating the members of this sample, disposition of the case. some of them twelve years after their last The importance of this large and unique database, cumulating over the years and contact with a treatment center, and per- projectible to the national population, can suading them to consent to interviews cover- ing sensitive subjects and sometimes illegal behavior, NORC achieved response rates ranging from 79 to 86 percent on the three data. To protect respondents who were be- waves of interviewing. ing asked to divulge information that could The initial interviews covered such put them in jeopardy, NORC established the topics as employment, education, marital only file containing identifying information and family situation, health status, drug use, outside the United States, at York Univer- legal problems, living arrangements, and sity of Toronto. Yet even with such assur- participation in drug treatment programs ances of confidentiality, a major concern in since leaving the centers. The followup in- all research on sensitive topics is the truth- terviews focused on behavioral changes and fulness with which respondents will report outcomes, as well as historical assessments embarrassing or illegal behavior. Over the of psychological and social factors present three waves, therefore, the survey included throughout the addiction career. The design both checks for internal data consistency and of the study allows comparisons of various comparisons of self-reported information treatment strategies across agencies, and the with results of urinalyses and with criminal sample was large enough that treatment justice records of post-DARP incarcerations. strategies could be examined in light of such These indicated high levels of reliability and variables as sex or age of patient, length of validity in the data. drug use, and types of drugs used. NORC conducted the earlier phases of The research incorporated measures to the study for the Institute of Behavioral Re- address two potential problems with these search at Texas Christian University; the hardly be exaggerated. It has had substantial impact on medical education, where, for the first time, medical students can he shown a realistic picture of the types of problems, and their distribution and frequency, that they will encounter in privab practice. It has afkcied the planning, deployment, and administration of health care hcilYties and services, as NAMCS data have shown the var£ations in the nature and volume of care, according to med- ical specialty, type of community. geographi- cal region, and patient charactmbth. Beyond the raw data for each year, NAMCS has per- mitted analyses of ambulatory care ower time, to reflect seasonal changes, trends in the di- agnosis and treatment of specific conditions, and the distribution of patient complainis by age, sex, and type of community. In iis reports published in Vital and Heal1 Statistics, Series 13, and in ib advancedata reports in the years since 1915, the Nattonal Center for Health Statistics has issued some Paul B. Sheapsley 65 publications that have reported NAMCS findings. Thew include a series on patterns of ambulatory care in various medical special- Beyond these government reports from ities-internal medicine, general sursry, ob- the US. Department of Health and Human steMcs and gynecology, general and family Services, the NAMCS data have been eagerly practice-and special reports on visits by used by a wide variety of universities and med- women patients and black patienbp, for preven- ,ical schools, individual scholars and physi- tive care, and for pai%i& types of conditions cians, and pubtic and private agencies. The such as diabetes mdtus, male genitourinary National Eye Institute, for example, has exam- conditions, family planning, headache, cough, ined the NAMCS data on eye disorders; the pain. A series of reports has provided statisti- Centers for Disease Control have used the find- cal data on the use of analgesic and psy- ings on vaccinations to evaluate'their public chotropic drugs in office-based care, and has vacdnation programs; various indiuiduals and charted the hgsmost frequently used in of- agencies have examined NAMCS data on x- . rays ordered or provided in order to study 5ce practice over the ye-. population exposure to radiation. The Univer- sity of Washington School of Medicine has ex- amined the epidemiology of musculo-skeletal problems encountered in of5ce practice; both the American Academy of Pediatrics and the American Academy of Dermatology have ana- lyzed appropriate NAMCS data to evaluate manpower needs within their specialties. The National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey k but one example of the contributions New Issue in Health and Health Care that NORC continues to make in devising I ways to collect and disseminate the basic Tk wae in Vtetrwim am Mky b statistical data that are so urgently required cdkd a new issue, but the ttfm &me && to help manage a large and complex society. dsdhm~tl&1~aaw9mm%olfbrn NAMCS is conducted according to the most rigorous methodological standards. The qual- ity and value of its data rest entirely upon NORC's sampling skills; the quality of its ques- tionnaires and other 5eld instruments; the 6kills, training. and motivation of its nation- wide interviewing staff; and the meticulous processing of the data collected into forms suitable for use by analysts. New Interest in a Traditional Form of Care product ofthe eaNer &rt was a questk,&e for a Survqr of Individuals in HousehoMs, Bask human caring for peaple who are which the US. Bureau of the Census ad- sick or disabled predates medicine, science, ministered to a national sample of impaired and religion. This may have been ec1Ipeed persons. The impaired sample was asked a se- from time to time by advances in professional riesofq~onsontheira~toperbrrnvar- healhg dmgthe past century, but modem ious activities of daily living, such as eating, medicine can never completely replace more bathing. dressing, and walking. For each ac- informal means of gMng care. The escalation tivity that the sample person could not do of medical coets in the 1980s has prompted without help, the Csnsus interviewer asksd intense research interest in these Inford who provided the help. This Ilst of indMdds caregiving activities. became the frame for NOR- sample of in- Very Httle research has been dogie on th- formal caregiuers-peopte who provide unpaid formal care in the United States. It has been help to a disabled person. known for some time that a significant propor- To gather the necertsary data, NORC field tion of the population 45 and older has some &affin&m&md informal caregivers, who were degree of disability. The National Center for typically relatives of the disabled person and Health Seruices harch reported in 1973 intimately involved in the provision of care. that 5 percent of Americans between 45 and Questions were designed to identify exactly 64 and 20 percent of those 65 and alder were what the informal caregiver did and how he unable to pehrm some everyday activities or she viewed these activities. Pardcular at- . without help of some kind. The desiwen of tention was paid to identifying how much the Survey of Caregivers thought that if more stress these functions caused the car&w. A were known about informal weit might be new methodology- magnitude scaling -was ' possible to encourage grmh in this approach adapted to determine how much stress might to health care and thereby alleviate some of cause the caregiver to make a dedsion to the burdens impased on institutions in the for- place the disabled person is a nursing homes mal health are system, as well as the in- The emmy found that about 96 pcent dividuals served bg them and those ultimately of the caregivers were related ,tothe dieslbled - paying for them. person and that 74 percent lived in the mme I ' NORm Survey of Informal Caregivers household. An ovemiselmlng majority of the was designed to ptovIde, for the first time on car.egh;rarowere Qemale(72 percat), and most a national basis, a comprehensive picture of of these (66 percent) were 53 years of age ar theEnbrmalmecaneofpravidinglongtermcare older. Only 31 percent held jobs outside the to the disabled. Data from the survey wfU be home. the basis for designing long term care policies The caredwere repodproviding hel~in that capitalize on private, voluntaristic care numerous w&. M~Greported himK,hreient systems. Researchers in the USDepartment in the most mundane tasks: 33 percent helped the disabled person get around inside the of Health and Human Services are using the ' survey data to address such issue8 as: house, 35 percent helped the disabled person get in and out of bed; 54 percent helped with What pmpsrtion of all care is given bathing, 46 percent with dressing, 24 percent informalb? with golng to the toilet, and 12 percent with What are the costs of informal care. feeding. Some were involved in quasi-medical including not just money. but also activities: 52 percent gave medicine or time, stress, and opportunity costs? changed bandages, 6 percent gave injections. The caregivers reported a number of other What is the impact of Mormal care problems a&dated7with their provision of on family structure? , ,, +,. care: the disabled person was often confused How does the stress of caregidng or forgetful (63 percent), did things that em- vary with the kind of care and the barrassed the awegiver (20 percent). had nature of the camgiving lapses into senlllty (26 percent), and became relationship? upset and yelled at the caregiver (36 percent). Most of the caregivers reported helping Do the most severely impaired rely the sample person every day of the week-a most heavily on informal care? full 80 percent. About 40 percent said that In late 1982 and early 1983, NORC in- there would be a 8erbus problem if they could krvtewed almost 2,090 wegivers across the no longer provide this help because there was country. Because the Caregbm Stmw was no one else to do It snd do possibility of pay- an extension of the Long Tsrm Care Method- ing for help with these tasks. About 16 per- ology Project. which NORC began in 1980 for cent said that their own health had worsened HHS. it could build on the earlier effort. One since they began providing care. f a project that offers hope for definitive find- if the study 9 funded, undergo extensive ings through a unique aspect of its research physical and psychological examinations. design-the use of twins as research sub- After the VA has accomplished its research jects. The genetic and environmental similar- purposes, the registry will become the prop- ity of twins should allow for greater control erty of the National Academy of Sciences ofthe many factors that can otherwise wreak for use in epidemiological research. havoc in efforts to determine the causes of Persons requiring long-term care for health conditions. disabling illness constitute another portion The first phase in the research en- of the population with special needs, as do deavor, led at NORC by Senior Survey those who care for them. Medicine's inmas- Director Mary Utne O'Brien, is the assem- ing ability to sustain life, to treat conditions bly of a national registry of twins who served without curing them, makes this a growing in the U.S. military between 1965 and 1975. problem; and the costs associated with the The large majority of names for the registry needed care make it a pressing ona NORC survey will be derived from a process of has been involved in research on this topic matching state twin biih records with mili- since 1980, when it began work on a tary records to yield a listing of veteran twin Department of Health and Human Services pairs. This will be followed by a mail survey project designed to develop methods for as- of those discovered-an expected 10,000 to sessing the need for long-term care and the 12,080 male twin pairs (20,000 to 24,000 effects, on both systems and individuals, of individuals)-to assess their zygosity, the na- providing it. New Interest in a Traditional ture of their Vietnam-era combat exper- hrm of Care presents information on ience, their current health-related practices, NORC's continuing research involvement in their health problems (including the occur- this area from Brad Edwards, who served rence of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder,) as Project Director for a 1983-84 survey. mqrital and paternal history, and birth dis- The question of who provides care, not orders among offspring. informally but as a member of the elite med- The registry phase of the project will ical profession, has received increasing at- yield a sampling frame of Vietnam-era twin tention in recent years. Minorities, it has pairs with sufficient information about those been noted, are seriously underrepresented listed to make the registry an important re- in the provision of medical care, largely be- search resource. The initial intended use of cause they are underrepresented in medi- the registry is a Veterans Administration cal schools. In 1970 blacks constituted 11 study of several hundred twin pairs who will, percent of the U.S. population, but only 2.2 percent of the physicians, approximately the

'I same percentage as in 1950; and the pro- portion of black medical school graduates NORC submitted four reports on the declined from 5.4 percent in 1975-76 to 4.9 Caregivers Survey to the Long Term Care I Working Group at HHS: documentation of the percent in 1980-81. Attempts to increase the survey's operations, a technical report on presence of minorities among health care sampling, an analysis of nonresponse, and an providers produced numerous programs analysis of the validity of the magnitude scal- designed to help minorities enter medical ing technique. school-ranging from a two-hour workshop Since the Caregivers Survey was com- on the applition process to intensive year- pleted, NORC has used elements of the ques- long programs with academic coursework in tionnaire for two other studies in which mathematics and science-but the effective- informal care was an important research is- ness of these intervention programs was sue: a Consumers Union Foundation study of informal caregivers in the Philadelphia area. never scientifically assessed. designed to assist local social service agencies In 1983-84 NORC, working under in the provision of formal care; and a New Jer- 1 contract to the Educational Testing Service sey Department of Health study to assess the (ETS) and with the sponsorship of The needs of AIDS patients, which included an ex- Robert Wood Johnson bundation, con- ploration of the health needs of the patient ducted a swey 06 minority medical school from the perspective of the caregivers. applicants who took the Medical College , Admissions Test. Among the questions un- Brad Edwards i der study: What is the incidence and charac- ter of intervention programs designed to views were conducted with an area proba- facilitate the acceptance of minorities into bility sample of 700 of the general medical schools? What is their impact on the popuhtion of Phoenix, Arizona, and with a probability of minorities being accepted into list sample of 200 persons who had given medical schools? Are certain types more ef- testimony at public hearings on the risks and fective than others for particular students? benefits of technology. The NORC Project What variables, including demographic and Director was Jean Atkinson. The Principal academic background as well as participa- Investigator was Donald R. DeLuca of Yale. tion in intervention programs, are the best The results of the research will be published predictors of acceptance into medical by Russell Sage. school? AIDS, Acquired Immune Deficiency The study began with a survey, led by Syndrome, has recently been recognized as NORC Project Director Brad Edwards, of a serious and growing medical and social approximately 3,250 black and Hispanic stu- problem. Its victims, at this moment, face a dents listed in a registry of persons taking the certain and difficult death. Many of them medical school admissions test to gather in- face, in addition, the trauma of isolation from formation on their participation in interven- a community that fears contagion or blames tion programs, their strategies for applying them for their disease. Yet, in spite of a rapid to medical school, and other variables ex- rise in the incidence of this condition and in- pected to be related to success in applying. creasing public attention, there had until re- Transcripts were gathered to obtain data on cendy been no systematic assessment of the undergraduate performance, SAT scores, needs of AIDS patients. In 1984, NORC science preparation, and other relevant aca- conducted a needs assessment of a sample demic variables. of AIDS patients for the State of New Jer- Next, a follow-up survey was con- sey, which has the fourth hihest population ducted with all respondents to ascertain ac- of known AIDS sufferers in the country, a ceptance in medical school, enrollment majority of whom are intravenous drug choices, and alternative plans for those not abusers. The study, directed by Brad Ed- accepted. A subsample, stratified on charac- wards, was designed to provide the state's teristics measured in the fitphase, such as Department of Health with information on type of intervention, ethnicity, and initial how best to design programs for health serv- qualifications, were interviewed in depth by ices and health information for this telephone to obtain additional information population. on their attitudes toward intervention programs. New Technology for Health Care The final product of the study will be an ETS report describing minority applicants The medical community's claims of in relation to participation in intervention success in the treatment of cancers have programs and success or failure in admis- been a recurring theme in medical news in recent years. But advances in health care are sion. An analytical model will be developed . that relates various types of intervention to of merely academic interest if they are not performance on the MCAT, and to success available to those in need. The research that in the admissions process, while controlling produces improved treatments proceeds at for other predisposing variables. the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and other research centers, while care of cancer The American love affair with technol- patients proceeds in community hospitals ogy has hit some bumps in the road in re- and physicians' offices, where over 80 per- cent years. Questions about whether the cent of cancer patients are seen. The need benefits of technological advances are worth to bridge this gap, to disseminate informa- the risks to health and safety have risen in tion on state-of-the-art cancer therapy to the minds of many. In 1983, NORC fielded community physicians, led to the creation a survey designed to gather empirical data of the Community Clinical Oncology Pro- on this issue. Public Brceptions of Techno- gram (CCOP), a cooperative venture logical Risk, conducted for the Roper Cen- among the NCI, other research centers, and ter at Yale University, expanded on earlier community oncologists. small-scale investigations. The 1983 inter- In order to gather information about the e knowledge, attitudes, and behavior of com- munity physicians in relation to clinical can- cer care and clinical cancer research and to evaluate CCOP's effectiveness as a dis- semination vehicle, NCI has developed a research project in which NORC is a partic- ipant. In 1983-84, NORC was awarded a contract by the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center of Seattle to work with Principal Investigator Polly Feigl on a survey of phy- sicians. NORC Senior Survey Director Ger- aldine Mooney is overseeing preparations for a survey of physicians at twelve sites around the country, eight of which are part of the CCOP program and four of which are control sites. Two interviews, approximately one year apart, will attempt to tap the ef- fects of involvement in CCOP; these inter- views, to be conducted in 1985 and 1986, will focus on how physicians treat or man- age their cancer patients, on what the phy- sicians know about the CCOP program, and on their attitudes toward clinical cancer re- search. This project, like the HCFA study of practice costs, will use NORC's CATl system.

The Office for Medical Applications Re- search in the National Institutes of Health also engages in information dissemination and it too sought to evaluate the effec- tiveness of its programs in 1983-84. The Effectiveness of NIH/OMAR's Consensus Development Program was a project de- signed to assess physicians' awareness of specific NIH consensus development con- ferences on the topics of CAT scanning and total hip joint replacement. It was part of OMAR's attempt to determine the effective- ness of its programs to disseminate and transfer information on health care technol- ogy to practitioners and the community at large.

For the CAT scan survey, NORC con- ducted telephone interviews with a sample of 1,050 physicians drawn from the Marquis Directory of Medical Specialists in the areas of radiology, oncology, and neurology, as well as a control group from more general disciplines. For the hip replacement survey, NORC conducted telephone interviews with a sample of 958 physicians drawn from American Medical Association records in radiology, internal medicine, and orthope- dic surgery, and a control group from more general disciplines. the social fabric # NORC came into being in 1941 as the organization's original name. National Opinion Research Center, an or- The reach of the GSS is long as well ganization established to conduct surveys in as wide. Created in 1972, the GSS was con- the public interest. The National Opinion Re- ducted for the tenth and eleventh times in search Center would not do market research 1983-84 and the survey's scope exceeds or even forecast elections. Rather, it would even this considerable history. Because the attempt to give the people a voice in politi- GSS replicates questions asked on earlier cal, social, and economic decision-making. surveys conducted by numerous other or- It would also offer its survey services, on a ganizations, analyses of trends on some is- cost basis, to nonprofit organizations and to sues can cover virtually the whole of the university social scientists and educators, post-World War I1 era. and it would conduct methodological experi- In addition to carrying on opinion re- ments to improve the art and science of search of the most sophisticated kind, the measuring public opinion. GSS also continues NORC's tradition of In 1983,' "NORC, the National Opin- service to the research community. Within ion Research Center" became "NORC, A months after the conduct of the GSS in the Social Science Research Center." As the or- spring the data are made available to ganization developed, as research questions analysts through the Roper Center at the were reformulated, as funding priorities University of Connecticut and the Inter- changed, NORC's work became increasingly University Consortium for Political and So- behavioral in focus. In this way, the original cial Research at the University of Michigan. name lost its capacity to describe the organi- The utility of these data for analysis is en- zation's work and communicate its Identity. sured by the process of item selection, For Yet this shift in NORC's work from the the 1972 survey over 100 social scientists principally attitudinal to the largely be- around the country were consulted. Cur- havioral does not constitute a departure rently a distinguished Board of Overseers from the organization's original mission. Ev- provides guidance. ery NORC study that has consequences for Also critical to the data's utility is its high public policy-and these are many-gives quality, which is ensured by the efforts and the people a voice in social, political, or eco- standards of NORC's Survey Group. The nomic decision-making. Beyond this, more than 100 interviewers used to conduct NORC has kept open a direct line to its past the GSS are drawn from NORC's trained and its founding missiori by continuing to do and experienced field staff of over 700. The attitudinal research. In fact, the study that selected interviewers are prepared for their most strongly carries on this tradition is prob- GSS assignment through rigorous and com- ably the one for which NORC is best known. prehensive training materials designed ex- pressly for the study. For the 1984 GSS, this Examining the Forces That Drive staff completed interviews with nearly 80 Social Change, or Not: percent of the full probability sample-a very NORC's General Social Survey high rate for surveys of this kind. Furthermore, GSS service to the com- The General Social Survey, funded by munity goes beyond providing access to a the National Science Foundation, is a com- source of fresh, significant, high-quality data prehensive annual survey of Americans. The at low cost. The project staff are available questionnaire includes a wide range of to respond to inquiries about the GSS- demographics, behavioral measures, and at- about findings, about how to use the data, titude items and covers most of the major about how the survey is conducted-from concerns of our day-confidence in institu- scholars, students, the media, and others, tions, experience of crime and attitudes to- in the United States and in places as distant ward the punishment of criminals, and and different as Egypt and the Soviet Un- opinions on national spending priorities, ion. Nearly 400 such inquiries were handled abortion, foreign policy, and prayer in in 1984. In addition, the project supplied schools, to name a few. It is, in the words data to various government and private in- of James A. Davis, a former Director of stitutions for indusion in such publications NORC and the GSSs chief investigator, a as Stafistical Abstract, The Condition of Edu- "national opinion" survey, as befits our cation, and Sourcebook on Criminal Justice s The GSS Board of Overseers 1984

Peter if. Rossi, Chair Social and Demographic Research Institute University of Massachusetts

Duane Alwin Norval Glenn Department of Sociology Department of Sociology University of Michigan University of Texas

James Beniger Robert M. Groves Department of Sociology Institute for Social Research Princeton University University of Michigan

Richard A. Berk David Knoke Department of Sociology Department of Sociology University of California Indiana University

Judith Blake John Mueller School of Public Health Department of Political Science University of California University of Rochester

Ronald Burt Karen Mason Department of Sociology Population Research Center Columbia University University of Michigan

Stephen Cutler Stanley Presser Department of Sociology Institute for Social Research and Anthropology University of Michigan University of Vermont

Greg J. Duncan I John Robinson Institute for Social Research Department of Sociology University of Michigan University of Maryland

Statistics, and the survey is regularly cited by the major communications media-the I New York Times, Time, and many others. The GSS is also an im~ortantvehicle I for extending the state of the art in survey methodology. Experiments in question wording, question order, the interaction of xale items, and the reliability and stability I of measures are regularly incorporated into the survey. In The Gist of the GSS, James A. Davis-founder of the GSS, former Direc- tor of NORC, and currently an NORC Re- search Associate as well as Professor of Sociology at Harvard-sums up the survey's history and cantribution. In A Swing to the Right? Taking the Long View, Senior Study Director Tom W. Smith, who codirects the GSS, examines the swings and counter- swings of U.S. society. James A. Davis f The Gist of the GSS We've also learned that popular impres- sions about social change are often, though 'The Mousetrap: as all visitors to London not always, right: learn, is a 31-year-old Agatha Christie melodrama that holds the world's record for Households are getting smaller longevity on the stage. Its producers have (more divorces, more people living learned that to pack in the customers you don't alone), more married women are need a better mousetrap, the original one will working, fewer of us are getting do. married. But there is an attitudinal, At age 11, going on 12 in February, if not yet behavioral, trend in favor NORC's General Social Survey seems to be of living with one's aging parents our version of The Mousetrap-a project that and of tightening divorce law. has attained extraordinary longevity by fight- ing temptations to improve, doctor, modify, Several GSS items show trends to- and create. Instead, we ask the same ward equality in sex roles and there has been a striking increase in toler- questions-word for word and, as best we can, in the same order-year after year. ance of premarital sex. But, the sur- The consequence is not omifkation but vey suggests that there has been no replication-and a unique ability to study so- change in the swongly negative am- an tudes of the population toward ex- cial change in entire nation by comparing tramarital sex or homosexual answers over the years. relations. The eleven surveys since 1972 (in 1979 Despite popular claims that religion and 1981 we took sabbaticals for budgetary is either withering or reviving, indi- reasons) have produced: ces of religiosity such as church at- 7Bminute personal interviews with tendance have been virtually con- 16,698 U.S. adults (18 pars of age stant since 1972. or older, English speaking. lMng in Sophisticated opinion to the con- residential quarters in the continen- trary not withstanding, white Ameri- tal U.S.) , cans' opinions on racial matters 635 "variables," of which 116 are generally moved in the liberal permanent items appearing every direction. year and 193 are rotating items that Save for a large increase in (nomi- appear two years out of three to nal) family income, measures of ao- make more space in the ques- cioeeonomic status and social tionnaire stratification were virtually stable A -page cumulative codebook so over the GSS decade. thorough and careful that it is ac- There has been an increase in the knowledged as a model in the sur- percentage describing their own po- vey world-a kind of sociological litical vierus as conservative, but the Sears Rosbuck cafalogue rate of change was less than one A 1,000-ttem biMOoppaphy of re- percentage point a year. The net re- search repoh u&ng the 00s sult: a sfx-point increase in conser- vatives over a decade. In 1974 when A single computer tape with data the question was &st asked, eonser- cumulated from 1972 put into the vatii and liberals tied at 30 per- pu;Mc domain each July cent each (with 40 percent hunkering down in the *middle of And what have we lea~ned&om all of the roadn). In 1984, we find that this? Bdhg 1,000 research reports down into each position has shifted six points, a fsw sentences, we can say that American at- giving 36 percent conservative and titudes and opfutons are changing-but slowly 24 percent liberal (with 40 percent and steadily, not by sudden lurches. Adjaqnt still hunkered down). GSSs look surprisingly dmilar, but surtlqrs a decade apart shDw chaqges in many Wi these tends continue as the 1980s do, or variables. To takejtmtoneofthes4thepropor- might they be reversed? Wtll there be new an- tiDn of the American populatien WgaSone firmations, new surprises? No one knows, but new% shifted more than thee or fom we have set our mousetrap. a year, but in 1984 we fbd nearly a quarter of the population flvlng alone, when only a tenth were Wgalone in 1972. James A. Davis f 1983-84. Extending the Reach Still Further Over the course of its existence, the GSS has accommodated about a dozen short "add-ons." These add-ons-question- naire modules on special topics added to the basic survey through sponsorship by organi- zations or individuals-allow researchers to gather data on specific topics of interest in the rich context afforded by the GSS and at a fraction of the cost of a wholly separate survey. In 1982, The Ford Foundation spon- sored one such add-on: a questionnaire module on American attitudes toward the military, including such issues as the All- Volunteer Force, compulsory national serv- ice, and the role of women in the Armed Services. This study yielded the NORC Re- port Americans View the Military: Public Opinion in 1982, by James A. Davis, Jenni- fer Lauby, and Paul B. Sheatsley. The re-

A Swing to the Right? Taking the Long ber conservative trends, but have been of View greater magnitude and more bar. This liberal edge has not been constant Most people believe that American soci- throughout the post-WWU period, however. ety has been awash in a conservative tide for Something did happen in the mid-smntiw: the last decade. Both liberals and conserva- most 1krd&en& weakened. Yet we did not tives agree that the public and government see a whdesale reversal of liberabm. Vexy few haw to reject standard liberal nostrums liberal trends shWdirdon. Instead, most for emid ills and have tunred to the self-reliant either continued to increase but at a slower faith-heabg of the co~~.Liberals be- pace, or else flattened. no longer showing moan the advances of the New Right, the growth but not showing reved either. fund-raising of Viguerie and NiCPAC. €he The thrust of American histoy in the moralizing of the Rev. dew Fdwell and his twentieth century has been toward Increasing M4ority. the intellectual thrusts of the nss- libedsm, but this movement has been not co-W and rightag think tanks. Con- linear but cyclical-from the Progressive Era 8emths chortle over the Mumph of hop to the Return to Normalcy of the 1920s, from sition 13, the torpid thought of leftist Rmevelt's New Deal and Truman's Fair Deal intellectuals, and Reagan's victories. But de- to the Eimhower Years, and, most recently, spite the laments from the left and the from the New Frontier and Great Society to hallelujahs &om the right, the notion that the Reagan Regnum. Accumulsting research American society has swung to the right is at indicates that in each of the conservative beat a half truth. phases of the cycles bralism has not been Looking at the sweep of post-World War rolled back, but has rather rested on a plateau. I1 history through the GSS, we discover a wether these cycles are produced by an in- wide-ranging and sustained growth in Uberal- tem* driven social mechanism Hke the bust- ism. On abortion, race relatiom, sexual moral- ness eycle or are merely conuenient ddp- ity, tolerance of social and political dsvi~b, tions of reexmt history is not yet known. What women's rights, and many other topics, sup- is clear kom the dozens of trends tracked by portforUberalismhasin~.C)vet60pet- the GSS through 1984 is that the recent cent of the time series we have examined show changes In public opinion haw not added up some shift in the liberal direction, 15 percent to a rdofthe trend ttmard HbesaUsm, but show no change or bounce around without only to its deacceleration. net &don, and only 25 percent have a con- senmthre tilt. Liberal trends not only outnum- . dI .. Tom W. Smith port received the personal attention of Americans View the Military: In Brief Secretary of Defense Weinberger, was co- vered by the New York Times and the Chris- NORC Report No. 131, "Anericas View the MilbyP published in Awl 1W,dSs- tian Science Monitor, among others, and is cassed public opinion on a mge of mil1Wy still in demand by scholars and others con- issum* with spedrt rehence to atWudes to- . cerned with public policy in this area. ward the 1UI Vo~~Force m. the draft and Sheatsley presents highlights of the results to the Indadon of women, blacks, d in the accompanying piece, A- View Hispaaics into the Armed Sentice. Among the Military: In Brief. tb highltgk In 1984, Ford sponsored a sequel to enrich the 1982 findings by investigating the Fifty-nine percent of Amrieano rate the All Volunteer Force as working determinants and strenih of the attitudes very dl or Mywell, but 35 per- expressed in the original survey. A report will cat hbveit is not m* well. be issued early in 1985. The 1983 and 1984 GSSs were also LRss than half (42 percent) tuould choose a return to the draft in rhe expanded by the inclusion of a series of absence of a &ond emergenq, items on religious imagination, sponsored but aniy 9 WC&II~would oppose a and analyzed by Andrew M. Greeley. This clraet if here wma an emergency. work grew out of efforts to improve meas- The proportion of women En the ures of religion that began in 1972 with the Armed Semi- has b~redfrom Luce Foundation study of ultimate values. 2~tta9per&~the~ Religion, defined by such traditional meas- ten years. Eigh&+w percent d the ures as membership in a particular denomi- public wish to maiatain or inaeaie nation or frequency of church attendance, the present prmon, and per- had been found by social scientists to be a cent believe that the presence d less than powerful predictor of attitudes or womenithe~~has behavior on important social issues. Think- either rabd or had no &d on ing that the explanation for this phenome- military efktbmw. non might lie less in the failing power of religion than in measurement, Greeley created a measure to tap the power of relig- nations, with the addition of England and ion as a set of symbols that explains and Australia. Each participating country has an even shapes reality for believers. Building on independently funded and continuing sur- work begun in the early 1970s, he devel- vey to which all agree to add a section on oped a series of questionnaire items focus- a given topic of cross-national interest. The ing on images of God that, taken together, topic for 1984 was "Equality and Class," an yield a scale of religious imagination. Gree- exploration of the degree to which the first ley is now analyzing the power of this scale two participating countries-the U.S. and for predicting social behavior and attitudes. West Germany-were perceived as open or His work will continue with modifications in closed societies by their citizens. The topics the 1985 GSS. planned for 1985 and 1986 are "The Role 1983-84 also saw significant develop- of Government," which will be the subject ments in the international arena. Since the of the first four-nation collaboration, and late 1970s, the directors of the GSS, James "Social Networks.'' Building on existing A. Davis and Tom W. Smith, have sought studies with a national focus to allow inter- opportunities for international collaboration national comparisons is an exciting new ven- with researchers doing surveys comparable ture for the GSS. And, because all of the to the GSS. In 1982 those efforts came to individual studies are continuing, analyses fruition with the association of the GSS and can be carried out not only across nations the ALLBUS survey conducted by ZUMA but also over time. Participants in this inter- (Zentrurn Fiir Umfragen, Methoden Und national effort meet twice a year to develop Analysen) in West Germany. Analysis of plans and measures. The Nuffield Founda- cross-national differences and similarities us- tion sponsored the 1984 meetings, held in ing data from those surveys is now under- London and Chicago. Future possibilities for way at ZUMA and NORC. In 1983-84 the expanding the collaborative group include collaborative effort came to encompass four Ireland, Austria, and Italy. Most Americans oppose the use of f eral policy followed changes in public women as soldiers in hand-to-hand 1i opinion. combat (only 35 percent approve), but they favor women in a wide Having determined that public opinion range of military roles. Supplement- does indeed affect public policy, Page and ing near unanimous approval for Shapiro went on to investigate the forces that their employment in such traditional influence public opinion. In a followup study roles as typists and nurses are of the media's effects on public opinion they majorities that would assign women looked at both newspapers and network tel- to jobs as truck mechanics, jet evision news and how coverage of events fighter pilots, missile gunners, and and attitudes in these media affected the commanders of large military bases. public mind. In Public Opinion/Public Only 12 percent say there are too Policy, Page presents the major findings of many blacks in the Armed Services; this continuing, NSF-funded research. 70 percent say the current number is about right. But fewer than one American in five favors increased An American Dilemma Revisited: recruitment of blacks. Concern Immigration in the 1980s about further increases in the num- ber of blacks in the military is "Immigration is an issue of continuing greater among liberal sectors of the concern for Americans. We are torn be- society. including blacks themselves. tween the belief that America, land of op- than in the more conservative portunity, will offer even greater groups. opportunities in the future for us and for Only 7 percent say there are too others, and the fear that the opportunities many Hispanics in the Armed Serv- that attracted our forefathers are no longer ices, and one American in three unlimited." So say the authors of The would like to see more Hispanics Dilemma of American Immigmtion: Beyond recruited. the Golden Door (Transaction, 1983). Re- B. search Associates Pastora San Juan Cafferty Paul Sheatsley and Andrew M. Greeley, along with col- leagues Barry R. Chiswick of the University of Illinois and Teresa A. Sullivan of the Analyzing the Role of Public Opinion University of Texas at Austin, tackled this thorny problem in an NORC project funded It is generally agreed that democratic by the Revson and Ford foundations. The governments must be responsive to public resulting book, representing the different dis- opinion or face repudiation by the electorate. ciplines of its four authors, comprises histor- There are, however, difficulties in measur- ical, sociological, economic, and demo- ing public opinion in a large and complex graphic analyses of immigration in the nation, and difficulties in assessing the in- United States. It concludes with a set of clinations of elected or appointed officals to recommendations that diers at critical be guided by what they know about the points-on employer sanctions and amnesty views of constituents. These difficulties raise for illegal aliens, to name just two-from the questions about public opinion as a force in Simpson-Mazzoli bill that has been an issue our society. in the U.S. Congress. In an ongoing project begun three years ago, Research Associates Benjamin I. Page, Exploring the Cities now of the University of Texas at Austin, and Robert Y. Shapiro of Columbia University, Paths d Neighborhood Change: Race have been exploring these questions. The and Crime in Urban America, by Research answer they found: When the people speak, Associate Richard P. Taub, D. Garth Taylor, Washington listens-most of the time. The and Jan D. Dunham, was published in 1984 , study examined data from several hundred by The University of Chicago Press. This public opinion surveys conducted between study examined and finally challenged the 1935 and 1979 by NORC, Gallup, and the common assumption that urban neighbor- University of Michigan and found that hoods decline when minority groups mwe several hundred significant changes in fed- in, allegedly bringing with them rising crime Public Opinion/Public Policy more were in a liberal direction. Not surprisingly, policy moved mostty in When Americans' preferences change harmony with those trends. substantidy, public policies dmost always In sum, our research allowed us to conclude move in the same &don. On werage, Con- that public opinton, whatever its source or gress, the President, and the courts dtered to quality, is a factor that genuinely affects policies accord with public opinion about government policies in the United States. 65 percent of the time during the pdod 1935 to 1979, the years covered by our Public Policy Project. But there are some interesting varia- When we moved on to investigate how tions hidden by that average: public opinion is formed, we turned our atten- tion to the news media. Here we discovered When there was an opinion change that the effect ofnews coverage of policies de- of 20 percentage points or more, pends entirely on the source of the news. We policy changes followed an over- found a powehleffect on public opinion from whelming 90 percent of the time. only one source-the pronouncements of Poliq more often followed public popular presidents. Other voices fn a presi- opinion 011 Lsrgeeale sodd hues dent's admidstration appear to have no effect (78 percent of the time) than on on public opinion. Experts and scholarly economic or welfare policies (68 studies appear to have no direct effect. Even percent), and more often on domes- objective conditions and even* seem to tic than foreign issues- change the poky preferences of the public only as those events are interpreted by public ~014chan- accorded wlth public figures. Interest groups actually apaesrto have opinion more often when opinion a negative act. changed in a liberal direction (86 At this point we cannut say much about percent of the time) than a conser- the JRIPlicariom dour findings bor demoaacy. vative one (53 percent of the time). beyond noting thd tbre publk does net auto- This might sugmt the presence of matically respond to leadmh3p-or fdl prey a strong liberal btas in government. to manipulation-by political leaks. Qpin- but it might instead come from the easy. . 7 ,T-. I,,. Y .,.-'.. - ion leadership is not quick or The pub- fact that-. . . lit is not very malleable and there is time for g,-13- krgbf- A 1 8: Some of the bbgeat op%Eon counterargument and deliberation. It may not changes in the last two decades be too much to hope, therefore, that artsat have irvvalved sweeping liberal opinion leadership tend to succeed only when trends in such areas as civil righb, theyhawihedacQonLelrddeandar~lInhar- civll Ifbert€es,and abortion. AU but mony with the basic dues of the people. one @f 'the fourteen changes In pub- 1k opinion that we identified as moving by 30 petcentage points or Benjamin 1. Page

and deteriorating housing. Taub, Taylor, and The opportunities and problems Dunham investigated eight Chicago neigh- presented by city life were also the fwus of borhoods using a telephone survey of resi- a major devebpment effort in 1983-84.Be- dents conducted by NORC, as well as ginning with the premier American city, informant interviews, participant observa- NORC participated in a collaborative enter- tion, and archival analysis. The neighbor- prise working to create a New York City hoods were selected to represent various Area Study, or NYCAS* as it came to be aspects of the process of neighborhood known. The NORC team, Id by Awociate change-decline, gentrification, or stabil- Diredm Pearl Zinner, worked closely with ity-in the face of high and low crime rates the Consortium for U~~fmityResad, and minority presence. The book includes which comprised the City University of New not only the results of this research but also && Columbia Uniwsrslty, bdham Univer- a revised theoretical framework for consider- sity, The New School for Social Re5egl~:h ing change in urban neighborhoods and a and New York University. NNORC and the set of policy recommendations for positive Consartiwm, in tm, wked closely with intervention in the neighborhood-change representatives of city government because process. the project was designed to be a forum not f only for academic collaboration but also for cooperation between the academic commu- nity and government. The proposal prepared jointly by NORC and the Consortium outlined a five- year program of research addressing impor- tant policy-relevant topics, with one major topic to be the major focus of research in each of the five years. The themes of the five years, established by the Consortium's ex- ecutive board, are immigration and ethnic- ity, the urban family, the metropolitan labor force, health and health care, and housing. At the heart of the program, the proposal posits an annual survey of a cross-section of New Yorkers that would provide a multi- purpose data base for the city. The survey would incorporate both questions related to the major theme in each year and demo- graphic items that would be repeated every year. Seven foundations provided seed money for project development: The Com- monwealth Fund, the Exxon Education Foundation, the Foundation for Child De- velopment, the William T. Grant Founda- tion, the Charles H. Revson Foundation, the Russell Sage Foundation, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. Unfortunately, the high hopes raised by the intense and collabora- tive development effort have gone unfulfilled as the campaign to raise funds for the pro- ject itself has not as yet achieved the re- quired amount. Hope and activity on this front, though dampened, continue. At the same time, because research on American cities is too important to be abandoned, 1 NORC is now engaged in discussions with several other member units of the Univer- sity of Chicago (the Committee on Public I Policy Studies, the Center for Urban Studies, and the School of Social Service Adminis- tration), among others, about the possibil- ity of developing an area study for the city of Chicago. methods f Method and substance are virtually in- portant area of expertise. The threat to so- separable in research. The structures sup- cial science research implied by the cuts in porting a project, the manner in which it funding served to increase appreciation of proceeds, and the approach to analyzing the the value-and use-of longitudinal studies data it produces invariably have potent ef- and at the same time put their continued ex- fects on the outcome. The methods em- istence in doubt. In Expanding the Uses of ployed may determine both the quality of Longitudinal Research Projects, Celia E. the products of research and the efficiency Homans, Associate Director for Survey with which they are produced. Operations, discusses recent activities on this NORC's commitment to sound re- front at NORC. search practice, and to advancing the stan- National sampling frames are the dards by which that practice is judged, source for samples representative of the manifests itself in many forms. Every re- population as a whole and of segments of search question and every survey design interest for individual studies. NORC is one present problems, which are in fact oppor- of the few survey research organizations that tunities for methodological development. maintain a national sampling frame that is NORC surveys frequently incorporate based on the decennial census. The turn of methodological advances or experiments; the decade required that NORC create a and NORC does studies dedicated to ex- new frame, and interest in economy led to ploring fundamental questions in the meth- innovation. For the first time in its history, odology of survey research and analysis of NORC developed a shared national frame, data. Finally, the infrastructure for NORC led by Technical Director Martin R. Frankel projects-the national sampling frame, the and done in collaboration with the Survey national field staff, expert technical and Research Center at the University of Michi- managerial staff, and automated support gan. The collaboration began in 1981 with systems-must be not only maintained but exploratory meetings of the two organiza- also enhanced. tions and culminated in a report on the proc- ess and the new frame issued in 1984. Creating the Surveys Cooperation enabled each organization to reduce its level of effort and the substantial In every survey it undertakes, NORC costs associated with the undertaking. confronts the many challenges involved in When a sample frame is redesigned, drawing an appropriate sample, in develop- some of its Primary Sampling Units, or PSUs ing specific questions and a questionnaire (particular sites representative of parts of the format that will elicit full and accurate infor- country), change. When NORC's PSUs mation on all topics of interest, in gathering were changed in this way, its Of£ice of Field data by the method, or combination of Coordination and Management, which is methods, that will obtain the most informa- responsible for mainfaining NORC's national tion with the least error, in producing an in- field staff under the direction of Senior Sur- formative, self-contained, and usecable vey Director Miriam Clarke, saw the change codebook and public use file, and in as an opportunity to review and perhaps minimizing the costs of endeavor. But in modify its field structure. some periods, events, or the simple passage NORC's field management had for of time, dictate that the organization turn its some time comprised sixteen geographic attention to the structures and systems that regions in a structure geared for large-scale underpin or cut across individual surveys. national projects. Though it was quite suc- 1983-84 was such a period. cessful for this purpose, projects smaller in The cutbacks in federal funding for re- scale or having samples not national in search in the early part of the decade were scope more frequently worked around the not matched by a reduced need for infor- structure than within it. A new field struc- mation; in fact, in the view of some, they ture was designed and put in place in the created a greater need. Researchers were autumn of 1983. It is a more flexible struc- challenged to do more for less. At NORC, ture, and thus better able to respond to the the longitudinal study, in which the same needs of individual data collection projects. respondents are interviewed at intervals, was It divides the United States into four large an established focus of interest and an im- districts that are geographicaly similar to the Soviet system. The Soviet Interview Project tapped this opportunity by interviewing about 3,000 of these emigrants about their lives in the Soviet Union. The data will fill important gaps in knowledge about how the Soviet social, economic, and political sys- tems work. Moreover, because this project builds on a similiar one conducted by Har- vard Univedity in the 1950s, it will be pos- sible for analysts to measure change in the Soviet Union since that time, b fdentify mechanisms that work for or against change, and to project change in the foreseeable future. The current project is sponsored by the National Council for Sovfet and East Euro- pean Research (NCSEER), a not-for-profit academic corporation founded by twelve major academic institutions with a Board of Martin R. Frankel Trustees designated by the presidents of the founding institutions. NCSEER contracted familiar "regions*' of the U.S. Census Bu- with the University of Illinois at Lk'bana- reau. Project management is now based on Champaign to conduct the SIP mearch. these larger districts, each of which has a James R. Mdlar, Professor of Economics at District Manager working with central office the Universiiy of Illinois, is the project's MI- project staff to determine field management eipal Investigator, heading a research team and staffing needs in the diict. For ad- of a dozen scholars from universities ministrative purposes, there are twelve Di- throughout the United States. NORC has visions within the Dictstructure, and each provided the researchers with technical as- of these has a Divisional Field Manager sistance on all aspects of the survey and as- responsible for the hiring, training, and sembled a bilingual fieid staff of 90 to professional development of the supporting conduct the three-hour interviews. field managers and interviewers in a given Analysis of the pata collected so far is district. This system enables NORC to staff in progress. Plans for the project's future in- and manage the project requiring twenty in- clude interviews with additional emigrants terviewers in four states as .well as that call- similar to those already interviewed and a ing for four hundred interviewers in all fifty special survey of emigrants with.militiq ex- states, and beyond. perience. The latter prop, being developed under the direction of William Zimmerrnan Ways of Knowing of the University of Michigan and Norman Nie of The University of Chicago, would take Every research question presents advantage of the fact that substantial num- potential obstacles to be overcome by re- bers of the recent Soviet emigrants to the search design. A particularly thorny problem United States had military experience in the for researchers interested in international re- 1960s and 1970s to examine socEologica1, search is how to study a society closed to educational, and organizational aspects of them. This problem was overcome by the the Soviet military. design of a project undertaken in 1983- Virtually every NORC project involves 84-the Soviet Interview Project (SIP). the collectipn or analysis of survey data. But, Over 125,000 former Soviet citizens occasionally, a research question requires have arrived in the United States since 1970. another approach. A currsnt pmjsct, funded This migration, known as the Third Wave, by the Lllly Endowment and directed by Wil- offers Western scholars a rare opportunity liam C. McCready, such an approach. to interview a large number of former So- It calls for the coding and computertdng of viet citizens about their lives, attitudes, work, the statistics contained in the OWcial Cath- l and other experiences as participants in the olic Directory for the years 1915 through 1Wandofthe n~ofp~for~on particular population groups-the young, the poor, minorities. Outstanding examples of aU thyears. Thii 9tdg which 53 paat of studies that have become dassics of research a group of M;ie~wneerntng tEre: status d on long-term chaages or oufcomes are the Na- tfve bmn G&ak &5y, dl yield a tional Longhdiial Survey of Labor Force Be- mewwe of the clergy mmpmdMng havior (the DeLJW), the Pawl Svrvqr of most of &I century adw$l dew hbtorkid Income l3ynmics. Project Talent, The Na- analysis of heretofore unag~regakddata. tional Lo@tu&al Study of the Class of 1972 (NLS-72). and High School and Beyond: A Understanding the Answers National Lo~@twdhal Study for the 1980s (HS&B). NOW ha6 beem eng@ b studies an- NORC is now involved in three of these tireijs devoted to mthadd-d questions studies- the DOLINE(see The Labor firce), HS&B, and 1NLS-72 (see f3b~Wm).N0RC"s since tbqeaxly PWk, when Maman Brad- long&amkg partidpation in &e first two of burn, former Director d NQRC and now these stubhas allawed us to aee beyond the Pmvogt,d The Uhivmity ~f Chic-, and conskierable worth of each of these studies to saymw Sdmap of the univ- of rl- the complementari~of some d them. HS&fS hok bgqa their to find the best b a mdy of education outcomest but these are mathod for &Wning hOb1r&SponEes to clearly related to employment; the DoLfNLS qrte8tf.~nsmi such sensitive topics as is a study of work, but this is obviowly con- bzdmwand tirunken &Mng. This work nedto training and skill development. was coMnw4 and ex@nGEd in the mid- At a series of meetings in 1980, staff from sew-, when r&dhm and Sahnad- both projects considered ways to design the sf quw.&&B@@&- questionnaires for each project to maximize drew& * && the number of identical measures in them and tics, kp&3nlir katb11, adths pfewme d thus the comparab&ty of the data from them. tathem .an mpomes k? heahdrng qorss- This was, to our knowledge, the first attempt tiom 'i:ha,h* d m3 temkincbde- to standardize data acmss two dthe largest. tiwee books by bydbm and Suhan, the most prestigious longitudinal stub outside mwt =cant of,wtlich is Addsag Quasthm the Eureeu of the Censm. These efforts con- (J~~~,19821. tinue to the present time. A second innovation, begun with the DoL/NLS, and mw continued through HW and NLS-72 (for which NORC began to as- sume responsibility in lm),is to usie data cob Expas- the UEes of Len- lection as an opportunity to expand the Remar& hojecb studies. collp!cting data in subject areas that are related to the original purpose of the re- During the four decades since Wrld War search but not funded through the basic con- Il, longitudinal studies have become an impor- tract or grant. Ths vehkle we have hen using tant source of information about national for the past four years b "piggy-backing." hues for scholars and policymakers. Improve- Government agencies with appropriate fn- ments in survey technology, increased sophis- terests are ofFerd the opportunity to add to the tication of the tools available to create and basic questiannaire. Thus, we have added maintain large data files, and advanced ana- studies of fertility and childrearing practices lytic methodologies have combined to make and of alcohol and drug use to the NLS; and large longitudinal datasets more accessible we will add a component covering income and more useful to an- questions that af- transfers within families to NLS-72 in the 1986 fect the health and well-being of large num- followup of that study. bers of people. In addition, the inhitests of Study augmentations of this Wnd have government and the private sector in studies two benefits: in a time of reduced fanding, that can be used to examine the long-range more groups share the burden and each gets effects of certain circumotances or certain ex- more data than it could otherwise acquire for periences or a type of intervention has resulted ewn a much larger cmend the stmk them- in substantial funding for the collection and selves are greatly enriched by data on impor- analysis of longitudinal data over the last tant related topics, providing a richer database twenty years. for use. by scholars and policymakers. A number of longitudinal studies have 0ourisHed during this time. Some are based on the need to study certain topics-working, education, and the like. Others have focused Celia E. Homans I Cognitive Processes in Survey Responding Each year, millions of dollars are spent in measuring the attitudes and opinions of the public. Yet the results of these suweye and polls are often difficult to interpret. Much of their ambiguity derives from the inherent com- plexity and vagueness of the issues addressed in opinion surveys. Enduring topics like big govenment, welfare, and civil rights often mean different things to d~&rentpeople, and even to the same individual ovet time. Our study is attempting b understand the origins and meaning of responses to questions about these issues. It proceeds from a theory, grounded in cognitive psychology, that knowl- edge and beliefs about attitude issues often form organized cognitive structures, or "sche- mata." For the enduring igsues that appear regularly in opinion surveys, there are often several competing schemata. Conflict among them may occur within a single individual or in a society' This is -pe- questions is part of a larger NSF-hded re- cially true for contrwersial topi-* such search program designed to explore the cog- abortion. me public debate on this- nitive *roc- D.n,jshctllles at least two competing view- responses to survey questions. Investigam at pOhn-one as the bWng a The Unhay, of Chicago, Yale University, human life and sees it a woman's and Bolt. Beranek, and Newman, a consult- mclse of her 'lht to control her b'dy' - ing firm in Cambridge, Massachusetts, are An part O' our hvestigaw is conducting parallel lines of research that fo- a of On abortion* cus on types of survey questions-those =Ifar% and the that ask respondents to report about their be- Interviewersare 'mgout these in- havior and those that ask respondents for rea- tenrim purposive of sons for their behavior. All three lines of work * and respondents In New Haven* New are based on the belief that a deeper under- AbouCnenw have hen standing of the processes by which respond- conducted on each topic. Most respondents ents WTVey queEtions will lead to better are fo discuss these issuesfor than methods for asking survey questions. an hour with minimal prompting from inter- vieupers; they should thereby rdthe set of beJiefs that constitute the schemata informing Roger Toutangeau their expressed aphlons. Identifyins the relevant schema or sche- mata is the first step in this research. Using the findings from this phase about the stmc- ture of opinion, we will proceed to study how respondents answer opinion questions fn sur- In 1983-84, NORC again took up re- v.The process of responding to a s- bin- dudes -al mJor stages: &&, respondents interpret the question; next, they call. to mind relevant facts or beliefs; hdly. they render a ludslnat and r-po-. ~~hcmata pba lkgl role in the h-*ti~nofthe ques- tion and the mtrfeval of d-nt and &lin!@. Mwy respondents to several of the adable schemata for ma- University of CaIifomia, San Diego. Their jor issws, and tMr choics among thae Sn ' to survqiqudons may be deter- work is supported by National Science mined by the in which a question is Foundation. In Cognitive Pro- in Sur- worded or the comin which t is asked. vey Responding, Tourangeau reports on the This stu'ily of responses to atWudinal work in progress. Automated Systems for managers with a truly comprehensive tool Surveys and Research for project management. In addition, de- velopment was begun on a long-range plan In 1984 NORC's Data Processing for building a complex information network Department became its Information Re- of mainframe computers, microcomputers, source Center. This change reflected the or- and online databases. ganization's commitment to improve its management of information as a corporate Approaches to Analysis resource across its organizational divisions by taking advantage of developments in Just as the design of every survey hardware and new possibilities for systems presents opportunities for methodological integration. The first focus of the develop- development, so too does the design of re- ment effort has been in the area of survey search projects and analytic plans. NORC management and data collection. The goal Research Associates and Senior Survey here is to develop a single system of auto- Directors frdquently respond to these oppor- mated support for these tasks that is both tunities in the course of their work on sub- powerful and flexible. This includes both the stantive topics. Projects reported in development of new systems and the en- Education include both the development hancement and integration d NORC's ex- of a scale to measure attitudes toward the isting systems. While the plan will take American economic system by Senior Sur- several years to implement, a number of key vey Director Mary Utne O'Brien and Assis- elements are now in place. tant Survey Director Steven Ingels and two NORC installed both a computer- projects involving developments in measure- assisted telephone interviewing system ment by Research Associate R. Darrell Bock. (CATI) and a computer-assisted data entry But in this area too, there are projects largely system (CADE) in 1983-84.Both of these or entirely devoted to the methodology of systems have great potential for improving social science research. Several such projects data quality and reducing costs. The CATI were undertaken in 1983-84. system presents items in survey question- Research Associates James J. Heck- naires to interviewers on a computer termi- man of The University of Chicago and Bur- nal screen and enables them to enter ton H. Singer of Columbia University are at respondents' answers directly into the com- work on the development of procedures for puter. Because the system presents the analyzing longitudinal data in demography, "right" item for the interviewer to ask, based economics, and medicine that will enable on previous responses in the interview, the analysts to test predictions of relevant social process moves along more quickly, saving and biological theories. Statistical models of time for both the interviewer and the respon- the kind being developed improve on meth- dent, and is less vulnerable to error. Both odologies that are routinely used in estima- the CATI and the CADE also offer econo- tion of fertility decisions, contraception mies and reduce the chances for error by choice decisions, marriage and divorce de- eliminating much of the document prepa- cisions, and almost all statistical models for ration, coding, and editing required by tradi- the analysis of longitudinal data. tional data entry methods. Demography will be the beneficiary of Developments in networking pro- additional methodological work by Heck- ceeded on two fronts in 1983-84.A local man and Singer, this time in collaboration area microcomputer network and multi-user with Research Associates V. Joseph Hotz database management system were imple- and Jan Hoem. The four are analyzing two mented. This hardware and software will longitudinal datassts-the Panel Study of In- provide the basis for integrating CATI, come Dynaqnics, which covers the United CADE, field management, and reporting States, and the Survey of Family and Work systems. Other automated systems at of Swedish Women-to systematically in- NORC, including the long-established re- vestigate the -oeconomic determinants of ceipt control and codebook systems, will also the timing and spacing of biihs over the life be integrated into the database. The shared cycle. The research team plans to compare database approach will allow these systems and evaluate dynamic longitudinal proce- to "talk" to one another, providing project dures for analyzing such data with conven- < tional simultaneous equations procedures tween 1970 and 1980. used by sociologists and economists. Many issyes in the study of the labor Donald Rubin of Harvard University is force stand to gain from work done in 1983- conducting research using data on the labor 84 by James Heckman and Richard Robb. force, but the focus of hi work is a methodo- With support from the U.S. Department of logical problem that cuts across substantive Labor and National Science Foundation, topics. Vially all datasets of interest to so- they addressed one of the major difficulties cial scientists are incomplete in the sense that of analyzing earnings data-the problem of some variables of interest are not included selection bias. Focusing on the effect of train- or some units of the population of concern ing, they note that persons who receive are not represented. To take a common ex- training either self-select that experience or ample, some respondents do not respond are selected for it by others because of their to certain questions in a survey and some suitability for it. This selection factor makes do not participate at all. One way to handle it difficult to sort out the pure effect of train- such problems is to predict each missing da- ing from the characteristics of the persons tum using a statistical model and then use exposed to it, which can make it impossible the resulting prediction equation to impute, to predict the value of training to a member or fill in, each missing value. Over the last of the general population. Heckman and several years, Rubin has developed a tech- Robb focused on the question whether lon- nique for this procedure-multiple impu- gitudinal data are required to identify the im- tation-that improves on earlier methods. In pact of training on earnings-a common this system, multiple values-rather than a assumption-and concluded that the rela- single one-are imputed for each missing tive benefits of longitudinal data have been datum. This allows analysts to assess the er- overstated because the potental beneftts of ror resulting from the generally imperfect cross-section and repeated cross-section predictions on which imputations are based data have been understated. Though Heck- and hence permits valid estimates of inferen- man and Robb used training to motivate the tial precision. Moreover, this can be accom- analysis, their work serves as a prototype for plished using standard methods of analysis; deriving selection-bias-free estimates of the no special missing-data algorithms are impact of unionism, migration, job turnover, needed. unemployment, and affirmative action pro- In his current work, Rubin is applying grams on earnings. his own methodology to another problem of missing data, thi time one that arises from the imperfect match between files that are to be merged when the data in each, though nominally the same, have been collected at different times and thus have different mean- ings. With support from the National Science Foundation, he is attempting to recalibrate the 1970 Census detailed indus- try and occupation codes to the 1980 clas- sifications. Methodologically, this effort will extend the theory of multiple imputation, lead to the creation of new multiple impu- tation models especially tuned for the occupation-industry code problem, and al- low evaluation of the utility of multiple im- putation as a means for achieving comparable occupation and industry data for different censuses. Substantively, it will result in Census public use tapes for 1970 Census data that have occupation and in- dustry codes comparable to those used in 1980, which can be used by researchers to study occupational and industrial change be-

f 1983-84 was a period of significant ian behavior and morale for the Office of challenge for research organizations. Cuts in War Information in the early 1940s through federal government research budgets were the surveys in progress today, NORC has felt throughout the industry, and ways were been committed to the highest standards of sought to minimize the threat to important quality in a11 the surveys it conducts. The work. At the start of the decade NORC took Survey Group is staffed by experienced a number of steps to improve its posture for professionals, some of them among the na- the anticipated cutbacks. These included in- tion's leading experts in their fields. Under creased attention to development, in the the general direction of the Associate Direc- hopes of establishing an endowment fund tor for Survey Operations, Celia Homans, for the organization, and exploration of each survey undertaken by the organization structural changes that would increase the is assigned to a Senior Survey Director. As organization's fitness to do business in an in- project leaders, the Senior Survey Directors creasingly competitive environment. manage all facets of their surveys-sampl- NORC's hope that its ounce of prevention ing, instrument development, data collec- would obviate the need for a cure was real- tion, data reduction, and reporting. This ized to a large extent. 1983-84 was a project-centered management structure, challenging but, in the end, a successful which replaced an earlier, departmental period for the organization. structure, fosters a more integrated view of 1983-84 was also a period marked at surveys and more integrated management once by stability and change. NORC con- of each survey through all phases. tinued to comprise three major divisions- Often NORC surveys are staffed by Survey Operations, Research, and NORC personnel from design through Administration-but it added an enhanced analysis and report. The Senior Survey association with the Insitut fur Demoskopie Director serves as principal investigator, with at Allensbach in West Germany. Similarly, responsibility for design and analysis, as well NORC's Research Group continued to com- as project director. On other occasions the prise three programmatic research centers, Senior Survey Director works with one of focusing on cultural pluralism, economics, NORC's Research Associates, integrating the and social policy, but there were changes in scholar's design and analysis requirements each of these areas. These changes, as well with those of survey management. On still as continuing goals and activities, are treated other occasions the Survey Group works in the following reports on NORC's major with a principal investigator from outside institutional components. NORC-from government, the university research community, or the private sector. The Survey Group To these groups and individuals NORC The design, execution, and manage- offers its professional skills, sampling ment of all NORC surveys are vested in the resources, interviewing staff, and data Survey Group, which has conducted processing facilities. hundreds of surveys since the organization's 1983-84: Research and Surveys. The founding in 1941. The Survey Group em- two projects that have been the foundation bodies NORC's organizational experience in of NORC's survey work for the past several all areas of survey research: years-the Youth Cohort of the National The selection of samples that are Longitudinal Studies of Labor Market Be- appropriate for the requirements havior, and High School and Beyond- of each survey accomplished, respectively, their sixth and The construction of questionnaires third rounds of interviewing. In the first eight that elicit full and accurate infor- months of 1984, NORC collected data from mation from respondents about 35,000 individuals for these two The collection of data from studies. (For further diussion of the former, respondents of all kinds, in per- see The Labor hrce for the latter, see son, by telephone, and through Education and The Family.) the mail Another of NORC's recurring, and The organization of data in a most important, projects-the General So- form suitable for analysis cial Survey-was fielded twice in the two- From NORC's earliest surveys on civil- year period. In 1984-the eleventh GSS the~yearofo~htbM~Cfleld std und& a new rm~ura@zm@ntt&uct&x& designed to permit hfta mntd d W- wok and more flextbk use of NORCb W Managers. The chid salutary effect d this new system b th& it alh&ws MORC to msip managers with somewhat less attention to geographic location and more attention to lndividua1 sbb. As part d its continuing effort to streamline operaiiotls for maximurn cost- effectiveness, NOW began preparations in late 19% for the cmmiidation of its survey operations capabllitg in I& Ckap head- quarters office. NORC will, however, main- tain an office h New Ywk, far U&on with the Hew Wkresearch cemmuntty, rrnd NORC's Seld staff in hat geo;paphic area remaitrs h-. The Research Group surv~y-&a ciobctbn was carnpI&d on NORC's thepmgammkic research schedule, m& bud@ 'and with the centers parksok d &0 ~~dd-nof sta- highi~mp01~& rate k &e 'htory d the bility and chmth or- study Ew rn*d&W. ganimtion as a mhd the 1m-$4 alw m d~bfdmeltq3- mnbss &ud pmggems Of mearch men@ in another of N0RG"s 'stmtqjest re- within he ampasas d hdhgmie- SsUGIr areas: he& and health care. As sions, yet dl conbmpl;dlM~m inapksnentd dg~ussedeark in &is rego& NORC k- gan work on a rrew round. d the Natimd AmMatoy MddCare Study, with which NOW has been hdved &nce 1973, un- dertook a new survey of 5,W physicians on medical care c&, aad engaged in ad- ditfonal projects concerned with suck impw- Maand thctur C&~ER;~='L~&IJ tant heah is%- ets cancer care, the Research Center, but s new dbcta d ERG a$er&ts of service in #&am, an$ has been ~Eeded:bbert J. Wb, cu~rently minozIty repreentation in fhe mediicd oftheSt& ~ofNewYorka$Storyl profesion. BFook, Wintake~pthjs~bn~d~loiae In ail, NORC fielded thirty-five surveys faculty of The uni* of elliqo, h sep in the years 19.83-1SB4.Of these, seventsstl tember 1985. In the intedm, Chrb@phsr used face-to-face Intervkws; five used tek- W1nshrpI As~ciate Professor at North- phone interviews; and thien used re- western University, wifl continue to mme ae spondent-completed hstrummb done in Acting Dvector d the Center. En the SocEai groups or sent through the mails. Coufitlng Policy hmhCenter, the maor change the various qu&omlpabres and survey inm- comes in a new structure that will broadan men& involved (such as school Oranscripts, the Centqr$ approach to i& central rFh medical records, etc.), there wepe ZIP@&- focus, Researkh on childmm, alwa~~at the mately 242,000 campleted irrs~umC1nts. heart of the Centart's resagmh program wi4l Thew oegdkd primarily from hterd$~x~wfth beapandedamis~~~h idiuflduaki concerning behavior and aW- creatbn of the Chapin,Hdi htertor GM- tudes, but the unb d anam were also CEEem. The w- R*=h cen- schools, doctor"s dhs,and bspbk, 8uge ter, which ba9 dam gmundbre&ng work retail dletparbnmt stores and manufacturing in Amemethnkity $in= d founding In companies, automobiles1 churches, sta& 197Q ha's mwed '1rmewmgSy info mdaes a~nctes,and huuseh01ds. of values in a pluf;rwM society and to inter- 1983-84: @her ActiMes. 1984 was national &rts. The activities of the centers-both re- members across generations, and the rela- search and ancillary, both continuing and tionship between fertility and women's labor new-are presented in the following force attachment are the main topics under sections. investigation within the Center. With funding from The William and The Economics Research Center Flora Hewlett Foundation, ERC has ex- Founded in 1980, the Economics Re- tended its research program of economic search Center is devoted to empirically analysis of the family to developing coun- tries. Training of graduate and postgraduate oriented studies in economics. Specifically, students is an important component of this the Center has three objectives: To conduct research on issues of effort. Currently pre-doctoral and post- doctoral fellows are studying the relation- long-run relevance to the econ- ships among women's skhooling attainment, omy and to social and private labor supply, and fdtywith data from Ja- behavior pan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, To promote basic research and Malaysia. through the provision of training One of NORC's largest and most inno- in research procedures and vative ongoing research projects is the effort through a research environment to develop nonparametric, data-sensitive and staff committed to basic re- procedures to enable analysts to test predic- search in economic science To improve the tools of empirical tions of relevant social and biological theo- ries. Typically, tests of theoretically derived research through efforts to pro- hypotheses are wedded to highly parameter- vide better survey data and better ized statistical procedures that may not be statistical techniques of analysis appropriate for the data. This project, un- The Center engages in research on der the direction of Research Associates only a few topics at any one time, topics that James Heckman and Burton Singer, seeks have a several-year horizon, encompass the to divorce the testing of hypotheses from the research interests of a group of scholars, and often ad hoc distribution assumptions of the are likely to involve analysis of data. The statistical procedures. This project has poten- Center's commitment to this principle is seen tial payoff for demography, labor analysis, in the fact that its research continues to fo- epidemiological research, and indeed any cus on the three major topics with which it 1980: analysis of longitudinal data. A technologi- began in economics of the family, la- cally innovative, dedicated Hewlett-Packard bor markets and earnings, and behavior over computer network has been constructed for the lifecycle. use by this project. 1983-84: Other Activities. ERC con- 1983-84: Research. ERC's Population tinued to carry out many activities begun in Research Center, established in 1980 with earlier years during this period. January funding from the National Institute of Child 1983 saw the publication of the first issue Health and Human Development, now has of the Journal of Labor Economics, initiated a new five-year commitment from NICHD. by ERC and published by the University of The objective of this center-within-a-center Chicago Press in conjunction with ERC. The is to better understand demographic be- sixth annual Summer Workshop on Analy- havior in the years since World War I1 and sis of Longitudinal Data was held in 1984. the relationship between this behavior and The workshops in 1983 and 1984, with the changes taking place in the American fa- funding from the U.S. Department of Labor, mily. Toward this end, center scholars use drew researchers from government, private tools of economic science to study the inter- industry, and universities around the world play among demographic phenomena (in- for sessions led by ERC Research Associates cluding fertility, migration, marriage, and James Heckman and Burton Singer. ERC's divorce), economic and social behavior (in- discussion paper series continued with an in- cluding schooling, employment, bequests), crease in the number of institutional requests and the functions of the family as a social for the papers. And finally, NORC is proud institution. The timing and spacing of fertil- to note that James Heckman was the 1983 ity, the flow of resources among family recipient of the John Bates Clark medal, to all of the caseload of the Illinois Depart- ment of Children and Family Services-are discussed in The Family; the third-an analysis of High School and Beyond data by James S. Coleman and Thomas Hoffer-is treated in Education. Center staff undertook a new longitu- dinal project in 1983-84-a study of Gen- eral Assistance recipients in the State of Illinois. Because these programs are not sub- ject to federal financing or regulation they differ from one locality to the next, and no uniform data has been collected about them. The research addresses both the reasons in- dividuals have to resort to General Assis- tance for support and the effects of General Assistance on their dependency and well- being. The study is part of a set of studies on the impact of recent changes in federal Harold A. Richman social policy being conducted by a consor- tium comprising the Center, Northwestern which is given every two years to the nation's University, and the University of Illinois at outstanding economist under the age of Chicago, and sponsored by The Chicago forty. Community Trust and a number of corpor- ate funders. The Social Policy Research Center In other 1983-84 projects, the Center The Social Policy Research Center was worked with the accounting firm Price established at NORC in 1981 to identify and Waterhouse to develop a study of compara- study social problems of the following kinds: tive costs for providing social services under Problems extending beyond tradi- public or private sponsorship; implementa- tional administrative and discipli- tion of the study awaits federal clearance. nary lines Center staff also began work on the next vol- Problems presenting unresolved ume of its widely acclaimed report series The issues of fact or theory that might State of the Child (see The Family). yield to concentrated research 1983-84: Other Activities. Because efforts much of the Center's work deals with issues Problems likely to become in- of emerging importance to policymakers, it creasingly significant in the future is critical that that work be informed by ex- Since the Center's founding, its major changes between researchers and public offi- research focus has been children and youth. cials. Accordingly, Center scholars spend a The Center's work in this area is in keeping fair amount of time engaged in such ex- with its mission to study problems that have changes in the belief that this is integral to significant interest for both governmental the development of a successful policy re- and private agencies as well as researchers search program. In this way, Center projects in a number of disciplines. are more likely both to focus on the right 1983-84: Research. The Center's focus areas and to be formulated in a way that is on children and youth was continued, and understandable and useful to people respon- even sharpened, in 1983-84. The bulk of sible for policy development and implemen- the Center's work during this period was on tation. multi-year projects in three areas of interest: The Children's Policy Research Project adolescent parenthood, foster care of chil- has been the major vehicle for the conduct dren, and schools. The first two of these of much of the Center's work on children- projects-a longitudinal study of young specifically, that concerned with the relation- mothers on AFDC and an application of a ship between children and the state. The technology developed in the Center for the Project was initially funded by The Joyce construction of administrative case records Foundation and the Chicago Community Trust; it came to include as well support from scope of the work being done, which is The Bush Foundation, The Ford Founda- guided by the following objectiw tion, the John D. and Catherine T. Mac- To serve as a clearinghouse for Arthur Foundation, the Pittway Charitable research and information on cul- Foundation, the Bowman Lingle Trust, The hirill pldbrn and social diversity Edna McConnell Clark Foundation, and the in American ssou&y Prince Charitable Trusts. The Project, under To assmmble fundamental demo- the diction of Center Director Harold Rich- graphic information on reuo- man and Research Associate Mark Testa, ethnk idcmtifkation in American has undertaken research on a number of society topics of considerable concern, including To do secondary analysis on QX- those on adolescent pregnancy and children isding data to learn more abut in foster care that are noted above and values, attitudes, and behavim described in The Fsmily. among various groups in p1udM In 1984, Chapin Hall for Children, a America private Chicago agency devoted to serving To develg, he&h a substantive the needs of Illinois children since its found- theory and a research methodol- ing in 1860, joined The University of ogy that h turn generate a re- Chicago to create the Chapin Hall Center search paradigm from which , for Children at The University of Chicago. primary research projects can be The new Center will subsume and build on designed the children's research of the Social Policy Research Center, and SPRC's director, In itsnfirst phase the pluralism program Harold Richnan, will become Executive focused on ethnicity as a major factor in cul- Diector of the Chapin Hall Center. tural diversity. More wently the Center has The new Center will have three inter- explored the fact and implications of diver- related purposes. First, it will be devoted to sity in a varlety of sefflngs. developing knowledge and understanding of 1983-84: Research. The Center con- the problems that affect Illinois children and tinued research activities across a range of the conditions and policies that may cause social issues befitting its name in 1983-84. or alleviate those problems. Scond, it will Among these k the General Soda1 Survey, serve as an informational and educational described in The SdalEhW4 whkh an- resource on children's issues and policies. nually interview a cross-section of Ameri- Third, it will collaborate with public and pri- cans about their affltudes and behavior in vate children's agencies in developing, test- ing, and evaluating new policies and practices aimed at improving children's welfare. The new Center, like the existing So- cial Policy Research Center, will be housed with NORC. It will function under the diec- tion of the Chapin Hall Board, which will be expanded to include representatives of NORC and The University of Chicago. The Director of NORC will be among these rep- resentatives. The Center will begin opera- tion in late 1985, after a period of consultation and planning.

The Cultural Pluralism , , . , - Research Center The Center for the Study of American Pluralism was established at NORC in 1970 and became the Cultural Pluralism Research Center in 1982. The name of the Center was changed to reflect more accurately the e numerous areas of current and enduring in- tor, that the institute will become the prop- terest. Additional studies include the project erty of the University of Chicago. on Effective Parish Educational Programs, This agreement wih formalize and ex- supported by the McGivney Fund of the tend an already active relationship between NCEA; analysis of statistics from the Official NORC and Allensbach. Cooperation and Catholic Directory, supported by the Lilly exchange between the two date back to the Endowment; and research on the religious late 1970s. The two research centers, imagination directed by Andrew Greeley. though different in some respects, share One of the reasons for the Center's commitments to quality in survey research name change was acknowledgment of the and to the study of survey research emerging international character of its work. methodology. In 1983-84, Zdzislawa Walaszek continued Among the differences between the her work on a volume titled "Communism two are the fact that the institute is a private and National Sovereignty," and the Center corporation, founded in 1947 and owned is hosting a year-long visit by Professor Alek- by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann. Also, the in- sander Posern-Zielinski of the University of stitute, unlike NORC, conducts both market Posnan in Poland, who is studying the de- and social research in the belief that the two velopment of ethnic identity in the United are complementary and that progress in one States with support from the American often serves to advance the other as well. Council of Learned Societies. The Center The institute has a staff of about 90 and has also received a grant to analyze data a field force of 1,200 interviewers. The in- from the American portion of an interna- stitute's professional staff has published over tional study of values. The study covers 600 papers in professional journals. The in- some 30 countries, in each of which the stitute takes special pride in its archives, same questionnaire was administered. The which cover all of the approximately 3,000 Study of American Values is funded by studies conducted by the institute since its CARA of Washington, D.C., and directed by founding. The archives include question- Center Director William C. McCready. He naires, interviewer instructions, datafiles, is working with staff of the Institut fur codebooks, and reports from the studies. Demoskopie at Allensbach in West Ger- The agreement between Allensbach many (see below). It is anticipated that this and The University of Chicago is in keep- will be the beginning of an international col- ing with another of Allensbach's principles: ' laboration in data analysis between NORC fostering close cooperation between univer- and the Allensbach institute. sity teaching and research and commis- 1983-84: Other Activiffe, McCread y sioned research in private institutes. It will and Pastora San Juan Cafferty of The also serve to further one of the institute's University of Chicago edited Hispanics in the goals: fostering cross-cultural international United States: A New Social Agenda, to be surveys. The international study of values in published in 1985 by Transaction Press. which both NORC and Allensbach are par- ticipating (see section on the Cultural Plural- ism Research Center, above) is an example The Allensbach Institute of the kind of cooperation that the affiliation In March of 1984, The University of between the two organizations is expected Chicago and the Institut fur Demoskopie at to promote. Allensbach in West Germany announced that they had concluded an agreement to facilitate international cooperation and com- The Administrative Group parative investigations in the field of empir- In 1983-84, NORC's Administrative ical social research. According to this Group came under new leadership: Thomas agreement, Allensbach researchers will be G. Gerst, formerly Director of Grants and able to work at the University of Chicago, Contracts Administration, assumed the and particularly at NORC, and researchers responsibilities of Associate Director for Ad- from the University will be able to work at ministration and Treasurer. This group sup- Allensbach. The agreement includes a stipu- ports NORC's survey and research activities lation in the will of Elisabeth Noelle- by providing all necessary services in Neumann, the institute's founder and direc- management of contracts and grants, ac- NORC's Data Processing Department underwent several changes during this period. It acquired both a new director and a new name in January of 1983, when Lee Wood joined the staff as Mrector of the In- formation Resource Center. The latter change was in keeping with the depart- ment's new thrust toward htegntton of data processing with the survey and research ac- tivities it is meant to support. (Some of the department's development activities are dii- cussed in the lWeth& section of this re- port.) During .this period of growth and change, responsibility for the department was transferred to the Diecbr of NORC. In 1%3-84, the Administrative Group counting, data processing, personnel, and met =vend chanenges, chief amcang them of'fice services. the fiscal management of the organization Also housed in this group is NORC's Li- during a-period of contraction. The of brary. This department serves not only as a this challenge3and the success with which conventional library with a collection of over it was met by this pupand the mganiza- 3,000 books and over 100 journals and ac- tbn as a whole, is suggested by the fokw- cess to The University of Chicago library sys- ins Bebeen 19B2 and 1983, NORC's tem, but also as an information office and revenues declined by 24 percent. In this data archive. As an information office, the period, while NORC cut geneml and ad- Library st&, headed by Patrick Bova, ministrative expenses by 12 percent, the of- responds to queries about NORC surveys, ganhtian sustained a small loss. Between and surveys in general, from the NORC 1983 and 1-984,NORC inmadits gross staff, other researchers, and the general pub- revenues by 18 percent while keeping lic. As a data archive, the Library provides general and admhi&mtive expenses at the access to data from NORC projects to 1983 Iwd. This resulted in a net contribu- researchers who wish to analyze them. The tion to capital funds of $391,QQO,over Library also prepares and distributes bibliog- $200,000 of which has been designated a raphies and copies of papers and books Director's Fund earmarked for internally resulting from or referring to work done at sponsored resemh. The financial state- NORC. A list of 1983-84 publications ap- ments on the following page offer further pears later in this volume. information. C - . CONDENSED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS For the Two-Year Period Ending August 30, 1984

Balance Sheet I Assets Current Assets ...... Rental Deposits ...... Fied Assets Net of Depreciation .....

Total Assets ......

Liabilities & Capital Funds

Current Liabilities ...... $9332.645. Long-TermDebt ...... -0- CapitalFunds ...... 2.179.480 Total Liabilities and Capital Funds ...... $4134.825.

Income Statement

Net Revenue ...... $12.475.236 Total Project Costs ...... $5028.606. General and Administrative Expenses ...... 3.613.049 Total Costs and Expenses ...... $12.219.551 Income from Operations ...... $685255. Other Income (Expense) NORC-Funded Research ...... $ (3.132) Provision for Director's Fund ...... (200.000) Other Income (Net) ...... 138.536 Total Other Income (Expense) ...... $ (64.596) Contribution to Capital Funds for the Year Operating Fund ...... $089191. Diector'sFund ...... 200.000 Capital Funds Beginning of the Year ...... 1.788.391 Funds Edof the Year ...... $4802.179. -

These financial statements are based on NORC's annual auditor's reports . The complete reports are available on request .

THE DIRECIOR'S OFFICE Associate Director and Special Assistant to Director the Director Assistant to the Director Robert T. Michael Pearl Zinner Julie Antelman

THE. SURVEY GROUP

Associate Director for Swey Operations Assistant to the Associate Director Celia E. Homans Sheryl Cook Bates

Survey Directors Senior Swey Directors Barbara Campbell Martha S. Mandilovitch Jean Atkinson Calvin C. Jones John D. Loft Mary Ann Fitzgerald Harold McWillams Mary C. Burich Mary Jean Key Ann-Sofi Rod& Miriam Clarke Geraldine Mooney Lenore Kreiling Mary Beth Schewitz Brad Edwards Mary Utne O'Brien Shirley Knight Penny Sebring Walter Sherman Edwards Paul B. Sheatsley Lucille Kolkin Susan Sprachman Esther Fleishman Cynthia Thomas Donald Kotecki Karen Conner Tourangeau Kathryn Koehler Loff Roslyn Weisinger Assistant Survey Directors Robert Bailey Ruth Kellam Michiyo Bennett Kevin Kenward Project Services Supervisors Robert Borchers Joan Law Marva Lopez Griffin Anne Buckborough Moses Mambia Janice Leggs Susan Budde Margaret Miller Carolyn Miller Marjorie Butz Gil Press Hazel Taylor James Comiskey Richard Rubin Janis Horne Jeri Crawford Alicia Schoua Project Services Assistants Melanie Weine Arleigh Dom Phyllis Shechet Deborah Alexander Brian Kuhr Janet Gans Melody Singleton Zorka Benton Jane Mayer Gayle Hutchinson Linda Stephens Paula Christian Timothy Power Julia Ingels Natalie Suter Jeffrey Cothran Patricia Smith Steven Ingels Esther Weddell Nina Geater Betty Williams Carolyn Ivory Charlene Wejss Shirley Hicks Lorraine Wilson Administrative Assistants Sampling Diane M. Baguis Technical Director Rosemarie Boykin Nellie Presberry Martin R. Frankel Heather Rice Senior Methodologist Sampling Statistician Daniel Sichelski Margarette Wafer Roger Tourangeau Bruce Spencer

Wce of Field Coordination and Management Director Miriam K. Clarke Field Staff Specialists Coordinators of Field Management Training Director Gwen Houston Jeri Crawford Woody Carter Dianna Sexton Charlene Weiss The follow$ngpages list NORC staff by organizational group. For senior survey and research positions, all persons associated with NORC during the two-year period are listed. For other positions, the persons occupying them on December 31, 1984 are lied. f District Managers Field Managers Karen Baker Ruth Adams Patricia Fluck Kathryn Malloy Patricia Phillips Leslye Axelrod Ann Fried Dorothy Manfull Margarete Smith Suzanne Bard Mary Gartshore Jean Moore June Teplitz Alice Berd Emily Green Sara Murphy Claire Beth Mary Gruner Peggy Nathan Divisional Field Managers Tracy Buie Charlene Harris Eleanor Palmer Leonora Brandon Connie Campbell Gloria Harrison Jessie Raymond Virginia Close Lyn Clarke Geraldine Jack Claire Rodriguez Dorothy Daoust Bonnie Donley Gloriette Johnston Kathleen Salmon Cheryl Gilbert Rosa Dwyer Carla Klotz Sue Sender Lois Howe Virginia Eggleston Shirley Kroger Dorothy Snell Ellen Williams Pamela Engquist Dolores Laake Patricia Strand Gerry Winstin Janet Evison Claudia Lawson Emily Wilson Rebecca Zahavi Beverley krry Wanda Mallson Joyce Winebrenner Editorial Services Supervisor Editor/Writer Susan Campbell Suzanne Erfurh

THE RESrnCH GROUP Andrew M. Greeley, Professor, Department of Sociology, University The Cultural Pluralism Research Center of Arizona J. Director David Greenstone, Professor, Department of Political Science, and William C. McCready, Associate Member, Committee on Public Professor, School of Social Service Policy Studies, University of Chicago Administration, University of Norman H. Nie, Professor, Department Chicago of Political Science, University of Research Associates Chicago, and President, SP~,Inc. Pastora San Juan Cat'terty, Associate Benjamin I. Page, Professor, Department Professor, School of Social Service of Political Science, University of Administration, and Member, Chicago Committee on Public Policy Studies, Robert I.: Shapiro, Assistant Professor, University of Chicago Department of Political Science, Terry Clark, Associate Professor, Columbia University Department of Sociology, University A. Wade Smith, Associate Professor, of Chicago Department of Sociology, Arizona James A. Davis, Professor, State University Department of Sociology,' Harvard Richard Eub, Associate Professor, University Division of the Social Sciences and Lutz Erbring, Associate Professor, the College, University of Chicago Department of Political Science, David Tracy, Professor, Divinity School, University of Chicago University of Chicago Senior Study Director Visiting Research Fellow Administrative Assistant Tom U! Smith Aleksander Posern-Zielinski, University of Joanne Kent Research Fellow - Posnan, Poland Zdzisla wa Walasaek

Research Associates The Economics Research Center John M. Abowd, Associate Professor, Graduate School of Business, Acting Director University of Chicago Christopher Winship, Associate Professor, Gary S. Becker, Professor, Departments Department of Sociology, of Economics and Sociology, Northwestern University University of Chicago Charles Bidwell, Professor, Departments Robert A. Miller, Assistant Professor, of Education and Sociology and the Department of Economics, College, University of Chicago Carnegie-Mellon University Reuben Gronau, Professor, Department Thomas Mroz, Assistant Professor, of Economics, Hebrew University Department of Economics, Lars Peter Hansen, Professor, University of Chicago Department of Economics and the Elizabeth Peters, Assistant Professor, College, University of Chicago Department of Economics, James J. Heckman, Professor, University of Colorado Department of Economics and the Sherwin Rosen, Edwin A. and Betty L. College, University of Chicago Bergman Professor, Department of Jan Hoem, Research Professor, Section Economics and the College, of Demography, University of University of Chicago Stockholm Burton H. Singer, Professor, Department V Joseph Hotz, Assistant Professor, of Economics, Yale University Department of Economics, Nigel S. Tomes, Associate Professor, Camegie-Mellon University Department of Economics, Edward P. Lazear, Professor, Graduate University of Western Ontario School of Business, University of Robert H. Topel, Associate Professor, Chicago Graduate School of Business, Glenn MacDonald, Professor, University of Chicago Department of Economics, Nancy Brandon Tuma, Professor, University of Western Ontario Department of Sociology, Stanford Thomas E. MaCurdy, Associate University Professor, Department of Robert J. WiUis, Professor, Department of Economics, Stanford University Economics, State University of New, Robert T. Michael, Professor, Department York, Stony Brook of Education and the College, University of Chicago

Other Faculty Affiliates Robin Hogarth, Professor, Graduate School of Business, University of R. Darrell Bock, Professor, Departments of Behavioral Sciences and Chicago Education, University of Chicago Joshua Klayman, Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Business, Hillel Einhom, Professor, Graduate School of Business and Department University of Chicago of Behavioral Sciences, University of Donald Rubin, Professor, Departments of Chicago Statistics and Education, University of Chicago Research Analysts Research Fellow Haim Mano Robert Sykes Machiko Osawa Robert Mislevy James Walker Eiji Muraki VisitIng Scholar Administrative Assistant Yue-Chim Richard Wong Julie Less

The Social Policy Research Center Research Associates Malcolm Bush, Assistant Professor, Director School of Social Service Harold Richman, Hermon Dunlap Smith Administration, University of Professor, School of Social Service Chicago Administration, University of James Coleman, Professor, Departments Chicago of Sociology and Education and the School of Social Service Administration, University of Chicago $ Joan Costello, Associate Professor, Paul Peterson, Professor, Departments of School of Social Service Political Science and Education and Administration, University of the College, University of Chicago Chicago William Pollak, Associate Professor, Thomas DiPrete, Assistant Professor, School of Social Service Department of Sociology and the Administration, University of College, University of Chicago Chicago Laura Epstein, Professor, School of Social Service Administration, Rachel A. Rosenfeld, Associate Professor, University of Chicago Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Edward Lawlor, Assistant Professor, School of Social Service John Schuerman, Professor, School of Administration, University of Social Service Administration, Chicago University of Chicago Noah Lewin-Epstein, Associate Professor, Mark Testa, Assistant Professor, School Tel Aviv University of Social Service Administration, Laurence Lynn, Professor and Dean, University of Chicago School of Social Service Administration, University of Lynn Vogel, Assistant Professor, School Chicago of Social Service Administration, Edward Mullen, Professor, School of University of Chicago Social Service Administration, University of Chicago Fred Wulayn, Research Associate, Francois Nielsen, Assistant Professor, School of Social Service Department of Sociology, University Administration, University of of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Chicago I - Postdoctoral Fellow Senior Study Director Research Analysts Thomas Hohr Joan Gittens Carol Stocking Donna Barrows Rob Hug1 avid curry Michael Lamble Research Project Specialist Administrative Assistant Wendy David hfrfcia Mosena Sarah Diamond Mary Kotecki Gmnh Matthew Stagner

THE INFORMATION RESOURCE Senior Programmer Analysts CENTER David Cook Gloria Rauens Director Programmer Analysts Lee Wood Thelma Bahadur Associate Director for Applications and William tee Lefes Systems Development Senior Applications Programmer Reginald Baker Robert Surabian Assistant to the Director of IRC Applications Programmers Richard Kreitman Hyman Bern William Mudge Senior Project Support Manager Tucker Landy David Pieper David Lewandowski Brenda Spencer Ioanna Crawford Chyong-Yng Lin Jacques van der Ven Ruth Moayyad Project Support Managers Viginia Bartot Christine Beard Information Specialist Operations Analysts Anna Rantala Chris Lonn Barbara Browder Barbara Rubinstein Beverly Harris Operations Specialist Systems Manager Reginald Wright Joseph Taylor d Production Control Manager Data Services Administrator Maxine Hart Linda Ward Senior Data Entry Operators Assistant to Data Processing Manager Audrey Trimble Peggy Vevers Elizabeth Williams Administrative Assistant Data Entry Operator Leslie Littles Sheila Walker

THE ADMINISTMTWE GROUP Manager, Grants and Contracts Administration Thomas G. Gerst (acting) Associate Director for Administration and Treasurer ContractsIGrants Administrator Thomas G. Gerst Mary Westbrook Controller Administrative Assistants Aurora Punzalan Margaret Harrison Sylvia Mandeville

Accounting Word Processing Personnel

Chief Accountant Manager Personnel Manager Lula Baker Julie Antelman James Ketcham Accounting Supervisor Word Processing Supervisor Personnel Assistants Alicia Evans cassandr: Britton Frances Harris Richard Swedlund Accounts Payable Supervisor Word Processors Arline Redmond Arturo Landeros Employee Benefits Supervisor Vaudelita Nance Arlett Harris Accountant Theodore Mroaek Accounting Assistants Charles Allen Florence Redmond Office Services Vivian Wilson Staff Payroll Supervisor Office Managers Helen Smith Diane Geisler Brent Spyrka Interviewer Payroll Supervisor Mail Services Clerk Deidre Jackson Assistant Office Manager Kenneth Brown John Johnson Duplication/Binding Coordinator Office Services Administrator Kenneth Wright Library Kevin Okazaki Receptionists Librarian Robert B. Colasacco Patrick Bova Elsa Cruz Lindsey Assistant Librarian Building Attendant Michael Worley Robert Hall. Jr.

Survey Group

HIGH SCHOOL AND BEYOND: A NkTIONAL LONGITUDINAL SCTJDY 1978-present Funding Agency National Center for Education Statistics Project Director Calvin Jones This study collects a wide variety of educational and career-relevant information from a sample of young people who were in the tenth and twelfth grades when it began in 1980. Intercohort comparisons can be made with the high school graduating class of 1972, on which data has already been collected.

HIGH SCHOOL AND BEYOND TRANSCRIPT SURVEY 1982-1983 Funding Agency National Center for Education Statistics Project Director Calvin Jones This project collected transcript data from a subsample of students who completed High School and Beyond questionnaires in the first followup survey. These data were used to demonstrate that only 2 percent of the class of 1982 satisfied the recommendations on course-taking patterns of the National Commission on Excellence in Education.

HIGH SCHOOL AND BEYOND CONSORTIUM SUPPLElbENlX DATA COLLECTION 1983-1984 Funding Agency Johns Hopkins University; National Center for Research in Vocational Edu- cation, Ohio State University; Oregon University; Stanford University Educa- tion Department; University of Wisconsin Project Director Calvin Jones In the spring of 1984 a consortium of university research centers sponsored a study of principals; gui- dance, vocational, and community service program counselors; and up to thirty teachers in each of a sample of High School and Beyand schools. This information will allow researchers to describe the impact of the school environment on the educational process.

HIGH SCHOOL AND BEYOND THIRD FOLLOW AND NLS72 FXXrLIH FQWWUP 1984-1985 Funding Agency National Center for Education Statistics Project Director Calvin Jones The National bngitudinal Studies program began in 1972 under the auspices of the National Center for Education Statistics. At that time, comprehensive baseyear data were collected from over 22,000 high school seniors for the NLS-72survey; in 1980 similar data were collected from 58,000 high school sophomores and seniors for High School and Beyond. Subsamples of both groups have been resur- veyed several times to track their subsequent educational, vocational, and personal development. Funding Agency National Center for Education Statistics Project Director Calvin Jones Thii study is designed to obtain reliable and objective information about types and patterns of courses taken by students in colleges, graduate schools, and non-collegiate postsecondary institutions. When this information is merged with the expanding NU-72 and High School and Beyond databases, it will be possible for researchers to relate course-taking patterns to student characteristics available in student questionnaire data files, and to subsequent occupational choice and success. NAI'IQNAL LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF LABOR FORGE BEHAVIOR (DOL/NLS) 1977-1985 Funding Agencies U.S. Department of Labor; National Center for Research in Vocational Edu- cation, Ohio State University; National Institute on Alcoholism and Alcohol Abuse; National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; National Institute on Drug Abuse Project Director Mary C. Bunch A study of the labor force behavior of a sample of 12,000 youths, ages 1421, with overkmples of black, Hispanic, and economically dimadvantagid white youth. The first interview was conducted in 1979; followups have been conducted annually and are expected to continue through 1985.

NNIONAL LONGITUDINAL SURVEY OF LABOR FORCE BEHAVIOR: CQLI.AXITON AND CODING OF TRANSCRIPT3 1983-1984 Funding Agency Ohio State University, National Center for Research in Vocational Education Project Director Mary C. Bunch Completed this year, this study supplemented the interview data collected in the ongoing National Lon- gitudinal Survey of Labor Force Behavior (DoL/NLS) by collecting the high school transcripts of the NUrespondents. The specific purpose of this project is to provide objective data describing participa- tion in vocatjonal education. DRUG QUESTIONS ON NLSRDUND VI 1984 Funding Agency Ohio State University Research Foundation; National Institute on Drug Abuse; Columbia University (Denise Kandel) Project Diector Mary C. Burich A sectlon of questions on abuse of controlled substances was added to the questionnaire us~din Round VI of the National Longitudinal Study of Labor Force Behavior (DoLtNU).

DEVELOP METHODOLOGY FOR TWO NmONAL SURVEYS ON LONCrTERh4 CARE 1980-1983 Funding Agency U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Project Diector Brad Edwards This project was designed to develop methodology for two surveys of slightly, moderately, and severely im~airedindividuals. one was a survey of impaired persons living In households, the other, of those liviig in institutions. The respondents had im&rments that were bhysical, mental, social, or a combi- nation thereof; the focus was on the nature and cent of the impairments and the respondents' health status. SOVIET INTERVIEW PROJECT 1981-1985 Funding Agency University of Illinois Project Director Esther Fleishman Three thousand recent Soviet emigrants in the U.S. were tiiterviewed in Russian about their views of contemporary Soviet society and their immigration experiences.

ON THE ROAD FUEL ECONOMY SURVEY 1981-1984 Funding Agency U.S. Department of Transportation Project Director Miriam Clarke The purpose of this study was to monitor the fuel econamy of late model vehicles as actually experienced by the motoring public in its everyday driving. The data, collected by use of a log, will be used to evalu- ate Federal Fuel Economy Standards in terms of benefits from fuel savings by consumers.

SURVEY OF YOUTH IN URL?AN AREAS 1981-1983 Funding Agency Columbia University Project Director Pearl Zinner This survey investigated child and adolescent development in a large urban area. About 600 boys, aged eleven to sixteen, and their mothers or guardians were interviewed in ten neighborhoodsof New York City.

FOLLOWUP INTERVIEWS WITH EX-CLIENTS OF DRUG ABUSE TREATMENT CENTERS USING THE DRUG ABUSE REPOliTmG 2- @ARP) 1977-1982 Funding Agency Texas Christian University Project Director Brad Edwards In 1974-76, NORC interviewed 4,090 persons who had been admitted to treatment progarmi h centers participating in the Drug Abuse Reporting Program (DARP). For this project, 700 persons, both blacks and whites, were selected for twelve-year follow-up interviews; the questionnaire covered such topics as illicit drug use, treatment readmission, alcohol use, employment, criminality, and living arrangements.

- -- IN-PLACE HOUSING ADJUSTMENTS BY ELDERLY HOMEOWNERS 1982-1985 Funding Agency Urban Institute Project Director Brad Ed wards The purpose of this project is to better understand adjustments made in housing as they are influenced by the circumstances of aging, by analyzing data on repairs and improvements people make to their homes and property. The project involves interviewing single-family homeowners in seven cities who were interviewed for another NORC housing study in 1979 and 1981.

DEVELOP= OF COST-EFFICIENT,IMAGINATIVE WAYS TO ADMINISTER THE N#rrOPJAL ASSISSMEWT OF EDUCATIONAL PROGWESS (NAEI?] 1982 Funding Agency National Institute of Education I Project Directors Mary C. Burich, Darrell Bock This contract supported the prepamtion of a report of the same name. The report recommended redesign- ing the content, timing, and packaguzg of the assessment; using rotation samples of schools; strength- ening NAEP's linkage with state and local assessments; and reporting NAEP results annually in academic areas of high priority (e.~.,mathematics).

NAMCS DISSEMINkWION POLICIES EVALUAXTON 1982-1984 Funding Agency U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Project Diiector John Loft This project was designed to evaluate methods of collecting demographic and clinical data from a sam- ple of patient visits to hospital outpatient and emergency departments. Results of a pilot survey, con- ducted in $0 hospitals in four SMSAs, will be used to develop a plan for a national-level survey of hospital-based ambulatory care.

PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS 1982-1983 Funding Agency Yale University, Roper Center Project Director Jean Atkinson A study of public perceptions of the risks and benefits of technology. Interviews were conducted with 700 persons in Phoenix, hna,and wii a list sample of 200 who had tesfified at public hearings on this topic. The study built on the results of earlier small-scale investigations; it was designed to test whether their findings would hold among larger, more representative samples of Americans.

POWSERVICE NEWSLETTER OPINION SURVEY 1983 Funding Agency Division of Public and Employee Communications, Central Regional Office, U.S. Postal Service Project Diiector Jean Atkinson A survey of craft employees in the Central Region of the United States Postal Service on their attitudes toward their employee newsletters, workplace issues, and postal management. Data were also collected on employees' exposure to information about such issues as automation, courtesy, revenue protection, and safety.

SURYEY OF YOUTH SERVICING AGENCIES 1983 Funding Agency Columbia University Center for Population and Family Health Project Director Brad Edwards A small-wale study of youth service workers' expefience with young Hispanics seeking counseling about sex, pregnancy, and birth control. A questionnaire was administered to a sample of 200 health care workers, educational counselors, teachers, social workers, and religious workers.

SURVEY OF LAWYERS' NEEDS 1983 Funding Agency Legal Services Corporation Project Director Mary Utne O'Brien The purpose of this research was to inform the Legal Services Corporation (LSC) about the needs of legal professionals serving the poor and about their experiences in attempting to find professional sup- port and assistance. Interviews were conducted with program directors of LSC-funded programs; with private attorneys who represent LSC Funding Agencies through Judicare programs; and with LSC managing and supervisory attorneys, staff attorneys, fellows, and paralegals.

SURVEY OF PHYSICIANS' PRACTTCES 1983-1985 Funding Agency Health Care Financing Administration, U.S. Department of Health and Hu- man Services Project Director Mary C. Burich This is a two-phase project. Phase I included an assessment of previous physicians' practice cost sur- veys done in 1976, 1977, 1978, and 1979. Phase I1 will include a national survey of 5,000 physicians using a modified design based on the assessment.

FOLLOWUP OF THE HARLEM ADOLESCENT STUDY 1983-1984 Funding Agency Columbia University School of Public Health Project Diector Brad Edwards This research will assess changes in health status and need for care amen3 a representative aoss-seetion of bhck youth in Harlem who were first interviewed when they were twelve to seventeen years OM. A second wave of the study was fielded in 1975; this third wave gathered information on issues of physical and psychological health, including perceived health status, stress, drug and alcohol behavior, and attitudes, values, and friendship networks.

PHILADELPHIA SCHOOL DISTRICT SURVEY 1983 Funding Agency Philadelphia School Board Project Diector Brad Edwards The survey was conducted to essess the attitudes of parents toward desegregation and magnet school programs, and how they would react to a mandatory desegregation program in their school district. A probability sample was drawn from the Philadelphia School Board's data file on students.

IMPAGT OF HOME CARE ON FAMILY CAREGIVERS 1983-1984 Funding Agency Consumers Union Foundation Project Director Brad Edwards This survey focused on indivlduals who cared for terminally ill family members or Mends at home. A major focus of the study was to deflne the adual tasks involved in "careglving:' and to measure the stress associated,with these tasks as experienced by the caregiver or his or her immediate family.

SURVEY OF YOUNG ADUKS: A Sm7DY OF DRUG USE IN YOUNG ADUUHOOD 1983-1985 Funding Agency Columbia University Project Director Brad Edwards This study is Phase Ill of a followup study of former New %rk State high school students who originally participated in the Phase I (1971)and Phase U (1981)surveys. YORC collected information on respon- dents' use of cigarettes, alcohol, licit and illicit drugs, attitudes on drug use, and drug related beliefs. e REGISTRY OF VIETNAM ERA VETERAN TWIN PAIRS 1983-1986 Funding Agency National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences Project Director Mary Utne O'Brien This subcontract will develop a registry of Vietnam Era (1965-1975) military veteran twin pairs. A mail survey of 10,000-12,000twin pain will assess zygosity, nature of Vietnam combat experience, current health-related practices, health pmbbms, Posflraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), marital and paternal history, and birth disorders among offspring. Six hundred identical twin pairs will undergo extensive physical and psychological examination at a central medical site in a subsequent study.

EXPANDING OPMI- FOR MINORITIES IN MEDICINE 19844985 Funding Agency Educational Testing Service Project Director Brad Edwards NORC subcontracted with ETS to conduct a nine-month, two-phase survey of a sample of 3,300 med- ical school-bound minority youth. The interview focused on experknces with educational "inteawen- tion" programs designed to remit and pepare minority students for entry into medical school.

THE HFLUI'H INs'UMNCE PLAN OF GREATER NEW YORK: DWOGRAPHIC STUDY OF BRDOKLXN 1984

8. . Funding Agency He& Insurance Pian of Greater New York Project Director Brad Edwards This leading supplier of health care in New York City commissioned this study to aid in its planning and marketing efforts. Using a variety of data sources, including 1970 and 1980 Census data and en- rollment data provided by the funding agency, NORC divided the borough of B&klyn into ten market areas and provided the funding agency with a profile of each area.

A NEEDS ASSESSMENT OF PERSONS WITH AIDS (ACQUIREDIMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROME) 1984 Funding Agency New Jersey Department of Health Project Director Brad Edwards This survey involves personal intenrlews with AIDS sufferersllving in northern New Jersey, and teb- phone interviews with care providers serving that population. The purpose of the survey was to deter- mine the special needs of persons with AIDS living in northern New Jersey, in order to enable the Department of Health to establish priorities in services to be provided to this population.

NATIONAL AMBULKION MEDICAL CARE SURVEY 1971-1982; 1984-1986 Funding Agency U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Project Director Paul B. Sheatsley A national survey of phyaieians to cdlect data on ambulatory care provided in office-based practice by private physicians. The survey was conducted annually from 1973to 1981 and will resume in 1985. STUDY OF PUBLIC AlTITUDES TOWARD ISSUES OF MILITAlW SERVICE 1982-1985 Funding Agency The Ford Foundation Principal Investigators James A. Davis, Paul B. Sheatdey This program of research on public attitudes taward issues of military service was conducted in two phases, over a two-year period, under the guidance of a special NORC Advisory Committee. Phase I consisted of a special ten-minute segment of the 1982 General Social Survey that updated past sur- vey efforts, and alYo provided a body of additional information not prsviously available concerning public opinion toward these issues.

EVALU#r]:ON OF THE IMPmOF ECONOMICS TEXTBOORS ON JUNIORHIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS 1984-1985 Funding Agency Foundation for Teaching Economics Project Director Mary Utne O'Brien This study was an evaluation of the impad of a textbook, Our Economy: How It Works, on the values of the junior high school students who use it in class. The textbook was developed under ttte sponsor- ship of the Foundation for Teaching Economics.

SURVEY OF ONCOLOGISTS 1984-1986 Funding Agency Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center Project Director Geraldine Mooney

The objective of this survey k to evaluate the knowledge, attitudes, and behavior of community physi- cians concerning clinical cancer cara and research. Specifidy the study will evalwte the National Cancer Institute's Community Clinical Oncology Program (CCOP), which dissemhates information on state- of-the-& cancer therapy to community physicians. NORC will determine how well this information is being disseminated by interviewing physicians at Mlve sites throughout the Unfted States.

SURVEY OF ABSENT PARENTS 1984-1985 Funding Agency U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Project Director Geraldine Mooney Designed to determine the patterns of and reasons for payment and nonpayment of child support, this study involves interviews with both custodial and absent parents.

A STUDY OF AGE-RELN'ED DIFFERENCES IN CANCER MANAGEMENT 1984-1985 Funding Agency Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center Project Director Shirley Knight NORC will interview approsimately 1,115 white women over the age of 45 who have experienced ei- ther breast or rectal cancer. The aim of the study is to evaluate how age and socioeconomic factors affect the treatment experience, and b evduate those factors that differentiate older from younger pa- tients in terms of management procedures that have been shown to reduce morbidity and mortality from these causes In females. In addition, a projected 1,000 relatives or Mends identified by patients as most involved with their primary treatment will be interviewed. All interviews will be conducted by telephone. COGNITWE ASPECXS OF SURVEY METH0WUX;Y 1984-1986 Funding Agency U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Principal Investigator Norman Bradburn, Roy Dandrade, Roger Tourangeau Knowledge and beliefs about affltude issues okn form organized cognitive structures, or "schemata," and for the enduring issues that appear regularly in opinion surveys, there are often several competing schemata. This project consists of a series of studies that explore such cognitive processes h survey response. The studies focus on questions that elicit attiiudes or opinions, and questions that ask for ' the reasons or causes of behavior. Many respondents subscribe weakly to several of the available she- mafa for such issues, and question wording and context will affect which schmguides their response.

EVALUiWION OF NMCUES DAZ4 CaUECTION AND DATA PROCESSING PROCED- 1984-1985 Funding Agency U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Project Director Janet Gans This is a methodological evaluation of the National Medical Care Utilization and Expenditures Survey, which NORC conducted with Research Triangle Institute in the 1970s. It will include an examination of NMCUES' imputation procedures, and will examine the cost-effectiveness of various features of the survey; the findings will infm the design of the next WMCUES,

CHICAGO CaRDIA STUDY 1984-1986 Funding Agency Northwestern University Project Director Geraldine Mooney In this study of the health and lifestyles of young adults, 5,000young people in four cities-Birmingham, Minneapolis, Oakland, and Chicago-will be interviewed on such topics as smoking, diet, and exer- cise, and will be examined by medical personnel in 1984-85 and 1986-87.

Cultural Pluralism Research Center

A NmONAL DlEA PROGRAM FOR SOC10UX;Y (GENERAL SOCIAL SURVEY) . 1972-1987 Funding Agency National Science Foundation Principal Investigators James A. Davis, Tom W Smith . This project is both a data diffusion project and a program of social indicator research. The study's data collection instrument, the General Social Survey (GSS), has been fielded seven times. The ques- tionnaire contatns a standard core of demographic and affltudfnal variables, plus certain topics of spe- cial interest seleeted for rotation. ADDITION OF BLACK SAMPLE TO GENERAL SOCIAL. SWRVEY 1981-1983 Funding Agency National Science Foundation Principal Investigator A. Wade Smith This project added a black sample to the GSS, tadthe efficiency of two different sampling methods, and examined subgroup differences among American blacks. A total sample of about 500 blacks were interviewed, and the data will be analyzed for major attitude and political differences among, for exam- ple, lower- and middle-class blacks.

IMPACT OF MASS MEDIA ON POLICY PREFERENCES 1983-1985 Funding Agency National Science Foundation Principal Investigator Benjamin Page This project collected information from severd thousand survey questions concerning public policy, asked of national samples of Americans between 1935 and the present. Several hundred cases have been identhd in which identical questions were repeated within relatively short time intervals (six months or Im).FM those cases, the contents of TV news broadcasts and other mass media repbrte are being measured during the periods between surveys, noting the saurces of news storks (presidehts and their administrations, the opposition psftv* tntdgroups, w,etc.), the intended or desired impad upon public opinion, the length and prominence of the shries, and the like. A variety of content vmia- bles wiU be used to predict the amount and direction of change in public opinion.

EFFECrS OF PARISH EZ)UC&lON PROGRAMS 1983-1985 Funding Agency National Catholic Educational Association Principal Investigator William McCready

The Parish Education Evaluatbn project is designed to examine the non-school aspect of religious edu- cation in Roman Catholic parishes. his funded by the McGivney Fund of the National Catholic Educa- tional Association. The design consists of a national sampling of Directors of Religious Education in dioceses to obtain nominations of varishes that am particularly such1in terms of religious education. -- COMPUTERIZtUlON OF HISTORICAL S'llQ'ISIICS PROM THE OFFICIAL CATHOLIC DIlUZlDRY 1984-1985 Funding Agency Lilly Endowment Principal Investigator William McCready

The Historical Statistics project is designed to produce a datafile containing all the available statisti& from the Directories beginning with the year 1915. These will be used to create longterm trend data concerning such topics as the avahbihty of clergy, seminarians, and other re~ouspersonnel, as well as marking other institutional changes.

ANALYSIS OF THE UNITED SIXES FILE FROM THE INTElWtUlONAL VALUES SI"UDY 19%4-1985 Fundins Agency CARA Principal Investigator WiUam McCready These data are from a survey that has been replicated in thirty countries and is being analyzed by an fl international, interdisciplinary group of scholars. The international work is being done in cdabration with scholars at the Allensbach Institut fur Demodcopie in Germany. The survey is a broadly based study of values cpncerning many topics, including family, work, religion, politics, and culture. ! Economics Research Center

LOCAL LABOR MARKETS 1982-1983 Funding Agency U.S. Department of Labor Principal Investigators George Neumam, Robert Tope1

This research examined the causes and consequences of patterns of spatial equilibrium h geographi- cally separated labor markets, and the forces that cause secular change in that equilibrium. The theo- retical and empirical analyses focused on such questions as why the long-run level of unemplqyment is traditionally higher in some regions and why local labor markets respond differently in both timing and sensitivity to the aggregate cycle.

STUDY ON METHODS OF ANALXGNG LONGITUDINAL DAll 1982-1984 Funding Agency U.S. Department of Labor Principal Investigators James Heckman, Richard Robb This project is investigating statistical and methodo1ogical procedures for analyzing the effects of man- power training programs. An important feeeof the work has been to develop a elass of estimators that allow for control of selection bias that arises from nonrandom assignment of persons to programs.

RACIAL WAGES AND EMPLOYUEWT IN SOUTH CAROLINA INDUSTRIAL LAEOR MARKET: 1910-1978 1980-1984 Funding Agency National Science Foundation Principal Investigator James Heckman The purpose of this study is to collect and study the time series of wage rates and employment by race and sex for industrial workers in South Carolina for the period 1910-1978. The data will be used to study three explanations of black economic pragress in the state: improved education, affirmative action programs, and tight labor markets.

INCENTIVE CDMPENSKITC3N SEEMS AND PRIZES 1980-1983 Funding Agency National Science Foundation Principal Investigator Sherwin Rosen This project concerned incentive systems and.labor contracts in which the predominant market organi- zation is rank-order tournaments or contests. Other mas studied included the assignment of workers to managers and the size distribution of firms in general equilibrium, the distribution of income in such economies, and equalizing wage differentials for employment risk h labor markets.

SIW- DYNAMIC MODELS 1981-1984 Funding Agency National Science Foundation Principal Investigator James Heckman This is a collaborative research project on the formulation and estimation of dynamic models of labor supply, unemployment, job turnover, occupational mobility, and wage growth. One of its goals is the integration of modem labor market theory into empirical analysis of the dynamics of the labor market.

COMPENSKITON AND PRODUCTIVITY 1982-1984 Funding Agency U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration Principal Investigators Edward Lazear, Robert Michael This study concerned the relationship between the type of compensation individuals receive and their productivity on the job. The principal investigatars studied federal regulations on labor laws, taxation, and compensation, and how these affect worker productivity.

MUITIPLE IMPU'IKITONS FOR OCCUPATION CODES 1983-1986 Funding Agency National Science Foundation Principal Investigator Donald Rubin This project entails the development, implementation, and evaluation of multiple imputation proce- dures potentially having very general applicability to a variety sf problems of incomplete data: non- response in surveys, data sets whose classifications have changed over time, and statistical matching of files.

STUDIES IN APPLIED ECONOMICS 1983-1986 Funding Agency National Science Foundation Principal Investigator Sherwin Rosen This project addresses several problems in applied economics. It includes a time series study of invest- ment in single-family houses in the United States, and also will include an empirical study of entry dynamics in professional labor markets, and the completian of a book an the spatial approach to labor markets.

Smn,IES OF THE FCONOMICS OF THE FAMILY 1980-1984 Funding Agency National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Principal Investigators MichaeI/Becker/Heckman/MaGurdy/Lazear/WiIlis The objective of this three-year program of research was to better understand U.S. demographic b- havior in the post-war era, and the relationship between this behavior and the changes taking place in the American family.

DISTRTBUTION OF INCOME,AND EQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY 1982-1985 Funding Agency National Science Foundation Principal Investigators Gary Becket, Nigel Tomes Thls research concerns analyses of an equilibrium theory of the distribution of income, and studies ine- quality of opportunity and intergenerational md~lity.At an empirical level, data sets will be used con- f taining information on three-generation families, in order to test sorpe of the predictions d the theory that, holding constant the characteristics of parents, the income, wealth, and other ch~~csof grandparents and other family members will enter as significant pradict~rsof the success of children.

MODELING LONGITUDINAL MCRODNX 1982-1986 Funding Agency U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Institute of Chid Health and Human Development Principal Investigators James Heckman, Burton Singer This study investigates stafistid methods of longitudinal data analysis with applications in dmogra- phy, economics, and medicine. A key goal of the research is the development of nanparametrfc, data- sensitive procedures that enable analysts to incorporate and test the predictions of relevant social or biological theories.

MALEcFEMALE DIFFEWCES IN JOB MOBILITY 1983-1985 Funding Agency National Institute of Child Health and Human Development , Principal Investigator Reuben Gronau The major objective of this project is to Mastimate how wages of men and women are influenced by sex-specific human capital investments associated with intehmobility. The Investigator is studying the relationships between job turnover and optimal investment in job training.

INTEBWWOMAL POPIKAITON STUDIES 1983-1985 Funding Agency The Hewlett Foundation Principal Investigator Robert Michael This ~antsupparts the work of the Economics Research Center on population issues, especially policy issues relevant to'developing countries. A particular focus d the project will be the training of foreign students. ,

ECONOMIC ANAIXSIS OF FAMILY AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE 1984-1986 Funding Agency National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Principal Investigator Robert Michael This grant establishes a research center (an NIH P-30 Center) whose objective is to understand better the demographic behavior of families in the postwar era and to invedfgate the rdatimshfp between thfs behavior and the changes taking place in the American family. Tools of economic scicieurce are to be used to study the interplajl. among demographic phenomena, econornie and social behavior, and the functions of the family as a social institution.

LIFE CYCLE FERTlLITY AND FEA4ALE LABOR FORCE EXPERIENCE 1984-1985 Funding Agency National Institute of Chid Health and Human Development Principal Investigators Joseph Hotz, Robert Miller The objective of this research is to improve our undcmtanding of the dynamic relationship between fertility and fedelabor force participation over the life qde. A three-stage project involving the de- velopment of theoretical modek and econometric models of fertility and labor force participation ded- sions will be carried out, along with an empMcal analysis of these models.

ANALYSIS OF FAMIIX EVENTS HISTORIES OF THE HIGH SCHOOL CLASS OF 1972 1984-1988 Funding Agency National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Principal Investigators Robert Michael, Robert Willis This project will investigate how an individual's living arrangement and family structure interact with his or her flows of money and time resources. Two economic flows will be studied: the flow of money from parents to the subject for financing college, and the flow of money and time from the subject to his or her children, especially from non-custodial, divorced parents. A supplement to the 1986 rein- terview of the NLS-72 sample is a major component of this project.

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE TIMING AND SPACING OF BIRTHS 19841985 Funding Agency National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Principal Investigator James Heckman

The goal of this project is to analyze two longitudinal data sets-one from the United States and an- other from Sweden-using integrated mubtemodels that control for time varying uariables and un- observed heterogeneity to systematically investigate the sodoeconomic determinants of the timing and spacing of births over the life cycle.

POLICY ANALYSIS OF NCES DKll ON THE HANDICAPPED 1982-1983 Funding Agency U.S. Department of Education Principal Investigators Carol Stocking, Christopher Winship This project began as a policy-oriented analysis of the school experiences of students who identified themselves as handicapped in the High School and Beyond baseyear questionnaire. When followup data revealed that the same students did not consistently identify themselves as handicapped, tbg xe- search was refocused to explore the reasons for this incodstency.

CALIFORNIA ASSESSMENT PROGRAM 1984-1985 Funding Agency State of California Principal Investigators Robert Mjslevy, DarrelI Bock

Ttiis prom performs psychometric activities-item calibration and scale-score evaluation-for the Califor- nia Assessment Program (CAP). It employs a unique system of school-level scoring that enables CAP to work with school-level summary data from its multiple-matrix sarnpIes of item responses, vather than pupil-level data.

CONTRIBUTION TO COMPUTERIZE ADmTESTING 1983-1984 Funding Agency Defense Contract Administration %rvices, U.S. Department of the Navy Principal Investigator DarrelI Bock The purp~seof this march was to develop psychometric models appropriate to item analysis, calibra- tion, and test scoring, for use in an Armed Services adaptive testing project. Thb involves the develop- ment and implementation of marginal maximum likelihood methads, as appropriate to the adaptive testing setting.

THmIUT OP DIAGNOSIIC INFERENCE 1983-1986 Funding Agency Office of Naval Research Principal Investigators Robin Hogarth, Hillel Einhorn The purpose of this three-year prom is to develop a qualitative model for studying scenario genera- tion, understanding, and evaluation; to test the implications derived in this model experimentally; and to examine the normative implications of treating inference as either a decomposed or a holistlc process.

MAINTENANCE OF AMTI'UDE !XALS IN A COMPUTERIZED TESTING ENVIRUNMENT 1984-1985 Funding Agency Educational Testing Service Principal Investigator Darrell Bock This project was designed to ddopand compare four methods of onhe item calibration for the adaptive Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battay (ASVAB).

PlUlCmOF LEARNING IN PROBABILISIlC ~NMENlS 1983-1985 Funding Agency National Science Foundation Principal Investigator Joshua Klayman This research examines the environmental characteristies that help or hinder the learning of probabilis- tic relationships, and the cognitive processes through which such learning can be accomplished. This research is aimed at increasing our understanding of how people develop "expdi'* hughdirect experience.

Social Policy Research Center

STUDY OF MICHIGAN AFM;POOD SZ4MP CONSOLIDNED DEMONSTIWION PROECT 1982-1983 Funding Agency Michigan Department of Social Services Project .Director Cynthia Thomas NORC assisted the state of Michigan in an experiment to consolidate the application procedures and eligibility criteria for Food Stamp and AFDC programs.

-- YOUNG PASNTS PRQGRAM EVALUATION 1983-1985 Funding Agency Ilkinois Department of Public Aid Principal Investigators John Schuerman, Fred Wuhn This study is an evaluation of the funding agency's Young Parents Program, designed to reduce public aid dependency among young mothers- and to encourage participants to delay future childkating. The n r' . ,I- ' -- - - I' \ evaluation rests on the comparison of results from two waves of interviews conduded with experimen- tal and control groups.

COMPARISON OF PRIVN'E AND PUBLIC SOCIAL SERVICE PROGRAMS 1983-1985 Funding Agency Price Waterhouse Project Director Harold Richrnan NORC is a subcontractor on this project to develop an inventary of public and private providers of in-home support services for the elderly and disabled, residential care for children and youth, and alco- holism services in Boston, Denver, and Memphis for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Serv- ices. A second part of the study will select public, public/private, and private service providers for more detailed examination.

SURVEY OF GENERAL ASEEWCE 1984-1985 Funding Agency The Chicago Community Trust, Illinois Department of Public Aid Principal Investigator Harold Richrnan The Chicago Community Trust and the Illinois Department of PuMc Aid funded a study of Chicago residents who receive benefits frm General Assstance, the state-administered welfare program. Four hundred new recipients were interviewed to better describe the work histories, welfare histories, and support mechanisms of the Chicago general assistance population; six months later they were inter- viewed again to assess their experiences with the program.

FEDERALISM, EQUITY, AND EDUGWIaNAL POLICY 1980-1983 Funding Agency National Institute of Education Principal Investigator Paul E. Peterson This study examined empirically the way educational equity is affected by the structural factors that create differences between central and local governments. The processes of the implementation of six federal educational policies were examined in four large cities, using a comparative case study approach.

THE STKUCTURE OF THE SCHOOL AND THE RESPONSE OF THE STUDENT 1981-1983 Funding Agency The Spencer Foundation Principal Investigator Thomas Dihete The purpose of this study was to analyze student orientations toward the normative structure of schools, as measured by students' tendencies to participate in, rebel against, or withdraw from the social life of the schools. The analysis consisted of an investigatian of the relationship between students' reports of discipline problems and delinquent activities and their academic programs, participation in school activities, and feetings of integration into the school.

CONTINUITY VS. CHANGE IN COGNITIVE SKILLS, SOCIAL VALUES 1981-1983 Funding Agency The Spencer Foundation Principal Investigator Lutz Erbrng

This project examined whether, to what axtent, and in what respects two important institutions of social continuity-school and the family-have declined in effeciiveness over the past decade. With respect f to school, the analysis focused on cognitive achievement as the prindpd afterion; with resped b the family, it focused on criteria more loosely ddned In terms of cultural values and attitudes dated with the relationship between self and society.

SOCIAL RECRUITMENT OF HIGH SCHOOL YOUTH 1981-1983 Funding Agency The Spencer Foundation Principal Investigator Noah Lewin-Epstein The purpose of this study was to describe and analyze certain processes taking place during adoles- cence that select teenagers into a number of social settings and possBly result in differential experience. The analytic focus was on employment earnand program selecttan among cohorts and by individuals.

" ' PAREW ASPIRATIONS AND EFFECTS 1981-1983 Funding Agency The Spencer Foundation Principal Investigator Rachel RosenfeId This study used data from the parents' survey of High School and Beyond to analyze the formation and effects of parental expectations and aspirations for their children. It also focused on the extent of parents' and students' knowledge about post- secondary education, and on parents' abiand willing- ness to contribute to their chid's further education.

HISPANIC STUDENTS AND U.S. SCHOOLS: LANGUAGE AND ACHIEVEMENT 1981-1983 Funding Agency The Spencer Foundation Principal Investigator Frangois Nielsen This study focused on school delay in the Hispanic student population and its effect on the student, linguistic assimilation and maintenance, and cognitive outcomes of schooling for Hispanics. It also ad- dressed the issues of segregation and desegregation of Hispanics, and bilingual-bicultural education and its impact on academic achievement.

EXPECTATIONS OF YOUTH CONCERNING TRANSITIONS 1981-1983 Funding Agency The Spencer Foundation Principal Investigators Dennis Hogan, Amy Ong Eui This study was designed to produce information about the normative expectations of two adolescent school-grade cohorts regarding the timing and ordeiing of five transition events marking the passage to adulthood.

Funding Agency The Bush Foundation, The Joyce Foundation, The Chicago Community Trust, Pittway Charitable hundation, MacArthur Foundation, Bowman Lingle Trust Principal Investigators Harold Richman, Mark Testa These grants were made to further the work of the Children's Policy Research Project, whose objective b to reassess the relations of children to the state. Initial empirical and analytic work focuses on Illinois. The Children's Palicy Research Project publishes a series of research reports called The Child in Illinois. The first two volumes were The State of the CMd, published m 1980, and Children and the State: Responsfbilltfesand Expenditures, published .in 1983. The thtrd volume will be a history d children's policy in Illinois. Work is currently underway on an update of The State of the CMd to be published in December, 1985.

IMPROVING THE ANALYSIS AND UTILUNION OF CHILD WELFARE INFORMKITON SYSTEMS . 1983-1985 Funding Agency The Edna McConnell Clark Foundation Principal Investigator Mark Ma

A cooperative venture between SPRC and the Hinois Department of Children and Family SBNices (DCFS) to integrate research and administrative uses of computerized data systems to improve child welfare decisions at all levels. The project entails the construction of a lo~udinddatabase from the administrative records of 80,000 children who have come under the guardianship or supervision of the state since 1976. Access to the database is being provided to direct service workers and managers through a network of micro-computers located in two pilot sites in the Chicago and Moline DCFS fieM offices.

ADQLWENT PARENT AFI?C SUIWEY 1981-1982 Funding Agency The Joyce Foundation, Illinois Department of Public Health Principal Investigator Mark Testa This is a study of single mothers under the age of 18 and on AFDC. It is being conducted with the fllinois Department of Public Aid, and is directed toward achieving a comprehensive understanding of the circumstances and conditions of teenage parenthood.

ADOLESCENT FAMIL;Y LIFE 1982-1985 Fundrig Agency Office of Adolescent Pregnancy, Public Health Service, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Prindpd Investigator ~aroldRichman, Mark Testa This study is a longitudinal survey of 500 young mothers living in Cook County who are receiving or have received AFDC. The study focuses on the social supports and services available to the young mothers and how the use of publie, private, and family assistance is related to school and job accom- plishments and to the pregnancy experiences of these young women.

PUBLIC/PRIVBTE CHILDREN'S SERVICES , - 1982-1983 Funding Agency Prince Charitable Trusts Principal Investigator Malcolm Bush This grant supports a book being written by Malcolm Bush, Research Associate of the SdPolicy Research Center. The book examines the historical and contemporary role of the private sector in the development and provision of sacial services to children and youth in Illinois. < ------MANUSCRET FOR A THEORY OF SOCIAL ACTION 1983-1984 Funding Agency Russell Sage Principal Investigator James Coleman This contribution to sociological theory will present a conceptual baas for modeling systems of social action and methods for their analysis at a macrosocial or systemic level. Marriage markets, intergenera- tional and intmgenerational patterns of occupational mobility, systems of resource exchange among interest groups attempting to influence government policy, and systems of community dedsion-making involving interacting community elites are among those social processes for which specific modeling applications and data analyses will be conducted.

EDU-ONAL OUTCOMES OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SCHOOLS 1984-1985 I Funding Agency Smith Richardson Foundation I Principal Investigator James Coleman

This project is a foltowup to the work done by hieman, Hoffer, and Kilgore on differences between American public and private high schools. The data being analyzed are from the High School and Be- yond baseyear (1980) and first followup (1982) surveys.

EDUCATIONAL OUXQA4ES FROM THE SCHOOL A$ A SOCIAL UNIT 1984-1985 Funding Agency The Spencer Foundation Principal Investigator James Coleman

This project is a pioneering study of the ways in which the social organization-particularly its informal aspects-of high schools affects students' achievement, discipline behavior, rates of dropping out, and plans for postsecondary education. The data are from the first two waves of the High School and Be- yond survey.

Abowd, Anthony M.; Abowd, John M.; and sexual division of labor." Journal of Labor Kiigsworth, Mark R.: "Race, Spanish Economics, v. 3, no. 1, January, 1985, Sup- origin and earnings differentials among men: plement, pp. S33-S58. (Originally The demise of two stylized facts." ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 83-20.) ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 83-11. May, 1983. 48p. Becker, Gary S. and Tomes, Nigel: "Human capital and the rise and fall of families." Abowd, John M. and Card. David: "Intertem- ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 84-10, poral substitution in the presence of long June, 1984, revised October, 1984. 67p. term contracts." ERC/NORC Discussion Pa- per no. 83-18. September, 1983. 47p. Blank, Grant and Norton, Andrew A.: "Con- verting SPSS-X system files to SAS Abowd, John M. and Killingsworth, Mark R.: datasets." Proceedings of the 8th Annual "Do minority/white employment differences SUGI (SAS Users Group, Internaffonal) really exist?" ERC JNORC Discussion Paper Conference, New Orleans, January, 1983. no. 83-4. 29p. Gary, NC, SAS Institute, 1983. Abowd, John M. and Killingsworth. Mark R.: Bova. Patrick: "The poll and survey report col- "Sex discrimination and atrophy: A case lection of the NORC Library, University of study of the male-female wage differential." Chicago." BIinois Libraries, v. 66, no. 4, April ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 83-3. Re- 1984, pp. 166-168. vised February, 1983. 31p. Bradburn. Norman M.: "An information Abowd, John M. and Manaster. Steven: "A processing approach to recall in surveys." Pa- general model of employment contracting: per presented at the meetings of the Ameri- An application of option theory." can Association for Public Opinion ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 83-5. Re- Research, Lake Delavan, Wisconsin, May vised January, 1983. 61p. 1984. 17p. Alwin. Duane F. and Krosnick, Jon A.: "The Bradburn. Norman M.: "Response effects." IN measurement of values for children: A com- Peter H. Rossi, and others, eds. Handbook parison of ratings and rankings." GSS Tech- of survey research. New York, Academic nical Report no. 40. April 1983. 43p. Press, 1983, pp. 289-328. Bartot, Virginia Harris: "Structural changes in Bradburn, Norman M. and Danis, Catalina: the national education community, 1956- "Potential contributions of cognitive sciences 1983.'" Paper presented at the meetings of to survey questionnaire design." Paper the Sdety for the Study of Social Problems, presented at the Conference on Cognitive Detroit, August, 1983. 26p. Aspects of Survey Methodology, St. Michael's, MD, June, 1983. Up. Becker, Gary S.: "Human capital, effort, and the Burich, Mary C.; Cromwell, Jerry; and I Spencer, Bruce: Physicians' Practice Costs Public opinion in 1982. April, 1983. (NORC and Incomes Survey: Final pretest report. Report no. 131) ix,l2lp. (Includes 'a ques- September, 1984. ii,ll4p. tion wording experiment," by Jennifer Lauby, Appendix E, lop.) Burt, Ronald S.: "Network items and the General Social Survey." GSS Technical Re- Davis, James A. and Smith, Tom W.: General port no. 53. Fall, 1984. 52p. I Social Surveys, 1972-1983: Cumulative codebook. Chicago, NORC, July, 1983. Cafierty. Pastora San Juan; Chiswick, Barry vi,453p. R.; Greeley, Andrew M.; and Sullivan, Teresa A.: The dilemma of American im- Davis, James A. and Smith, Tom W.: General migration: Beyond the golden door. New Social Surveys, 1972-1984: Cumulative Brunswick, NJ, Transaction Books, 1983. codebook. Chicago, NORC, July, 1984. xv,214p. vi,483p. Campbell, Susan; Atkinson, Jean; and McWil- Dempsey, Glenn R.: "Measuring political ideol- , liams, Harold: US. Pbstal Senrice em- ogy and social status: A comparison of U.S. ployee newsletters: Llo they delver? A report and European scales used in the 1983 on a survey of craft employees in the Cen- General Social Survey.'' GSS Technical Re- tral Region. June, 1983. viii,59p. port no. 45, September, 1984. 14 p. Chan, James L.; Clark, Terry, N.; and Troha. DiPrete, Thomas A. and Gallaher, Harry E.: Margaret A.: "Organizational slack in mu- "Socialization, commitment and high school nicipal governments: A cost variance anal- achievement." January, 1984. 25p. ysis." Journal of Urban Mairs, v. 5, no. 2, Spring, 1983, pp. 95-108. . ERC/NORC: "Economic analysis of the family and demographic change." Final report to Clark, Teny Nichols: "Loca fiscal dynamics un- NICHD. ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. der old and new federalisms." Urban Affairs 84-6. May, 1984. 86p. Quarterly, v. 19, no. 1, September, 1983, pp. 55-74. Edwards. W. Sherman: "Interviewer training for the Soviet Interview Project." Paper Clark, Terry N. and Ferguson, Lorna C.: City presented at the National Field Director's money: Political pmesses, fiscal sfrain, and Conference, Phoenix, AZ, May, 1983,24p. retrenchment. New York, Columbia Univer- sity Press, 1983. ix,440p. (Contains an ap- Flinn, Christopher J. and Heckman, James J.: pendix on the history and composition of the "The likelihood function for the multistate- Permanent Community Sample.) multiepisode model in 'Models for the maly- sis of labor force dynamics.'" ERC/NORC Davis, James A.: "Counting your change for a Discussion Paper no. 83-10. April, 1983. ten: America from 1972 to 1982 as reflected lop- in the NORC General Social Survey." GSS Technical Report no. 43. June, 1983.52~. Frankel, Martin: "Sampling theory." IN Peter H. Rossi and others, eds.: Handbook of survey Davis, James A.: ''Extending Rosenberg's tech- research. New York, Academic Press, 1983, nique for standardiing percentage tables." pp. 21-67. Scxial&rces, v. 62, no. 3, March, 1984, pp. 679-708. Fuchs, Ester R., and Shapiro, Robert Y.: "Government performance as a basis for Davis, James A.: "Five well-established research machine support." Urban Affairs Quarterly, results: Probably true, teachable in introduc- v. 18, no. 4, June, 1983, pp. 537-550. tory sociology, and worth teaching." Teach- ing Sodology, v. 10, no. 2, January, 1983, Greeley. Andrew M.: "Religious imagery as a pp. 186-210. predictor variable in the General Social Sur- vey" Paper presented at the meetings of the Davis, James A.: "New money, an old Society for the Scientific Study of Religion, madlady and 'two's company': Subjective Chicago, October, 1984. 4%. welfare in the NORC General Social Sur- veys, 1972-1982." Social Indicators Re- Hagstotz, Werner: "IS there a 'legitimacy gap'?" search, v. 15, no. 4, November, 1984, pp. Discrepancies between government policies 319-350. and public opinion." GSS Technical Report no. 54. 1984. (Revised version of a paper Davis, James A.; Lauby. Je-, and Sheats- presented at a conference at Harvard ley, Paul B.: Americans view the military: University, September, 1982.) 38p. Heckman, James J.: "The x2 goodness of fit and Slivinski, Alan: "Patents as informa- statistic for models with parameters esti- tion transfer mechanisms: To patent or mated from microdata." Econometn'ca, v. (maybe)not to patent." ERC/NORC Discus- 52, no. 6, November, 1984, pp. 1543-1547. sion Paper no. 83-22. November, 1983. 41p. Heckman, James J. and Robb, Richard: "Us- ing longitudinal data to estimate age, period, Hugi, Rob: Children and the state: Responsibil- and cohort effects in earnings equations." ities and expendttures. Volume 2 of a series ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 83-9. of research reports on children in Illinois. January, 1983. 21p. Chicago, Childrens Policy Research Project, NORC and School of Social Service Ad- Heckman, James J. and Singer. Burton: "A ministratfon, University of Chicago, 1983. method for minimizing the impact of distrlbu- xvi.197~. tional assumptions in econometric models for duration data." Econornetrica, v. 52, no. Journal of Labor Economics, v.1, January, 1983-. 2, March, 1984, pp. 271-320. Published by The Univesity of Chicago Prsss in conjunction with the Economics Research Heeringa, Steven G. and Connor, Judith H.: Center at NORC. "The 1980 SRC/NORC national sample design and development." Ann Arbor, MI, Kiefer* Nicholas M.; Lundberg, Shelly J.; and Institute for Social Research, Sampling Set- Neumann, George R.: "How long is a spell ' tion, February, 1984. ii.112~. of unemployment?: Illusions and biases in the use of CPS [CmntPopulation Survey] Hicks, Alexander: "Elections, Keynes, data." ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 83- bureaucracy, and class: Explaining U.S. 12. June, 1983. 33p. budget deficits, 1961-1978.'' American So- ciolo~Revfew, v. 49, no. 2, April, 1984, Kiefer, Nicholas M. and Skogg, Gary R.: "Lo- pp. 165-182. cal asymptotic specification error analysis? Econometrica, v. 54,no. 4, July, 1984, pp. Hicks, Alexander and Fligstein, Neil: "Reevalu- 873-885. ating the uses of status: The case of earn- ings determination.'Yocial Science KiUingmorth, Mark R.: "Union-nonunion wage Research, v. 13, no. 1, March, 1984, pp. gaps and wage gains: Mew estimates from 90-110. an industry crass-section." Review of Eco- nomics and StaWcs, v. 65, no. 2, May, High School and Beyond: Come offerings and 1983, pp. 332-336. course enmlments survey (1982): Data file users manual. July, 1983. Krauth,' Cornelia: "Attitudes toward women's role-A comparative analysis based on the High Schd and Beyond: Transcripts survey 1977 NORC GendSocial Sunrey and the (1982): Data file users manual. July, 1983. G&m Oeneral Sodal Survey (ALLBUS)." G!S Tehnical Report no. 52. October, High School and Beyond: E&stfollow-up school 1984, 17p. questionnaim: Data file dsmanual. June, 1983. iv,33p. plus codebook (70p.1, plus questionnaires and other appendixes (66~). High School and Beyond: 1980 senior cohort Atst follow-up (1982): Data file user's man- ual. April, 1983. vi.76~. plus codebook (183p), plus questionnaires.

High School and Bgrond: 1980sophomore 00- hort Arst fbllow-up: Data Ale user's manual. April, 1983. vii,77p. plus codebook. (264p.I plus questionnaires and other appendixes (31%). H&, Thomas; Greeley, Andrew M.; Cde- man, dames S.: "Achievement growth in public and Catholic schools." June, 1984. . 95p. Hortsmapn, Ignatius; MacDmald, Glenn M.; I Lazear. Edward P.: "Salaries and piece rates." ity." ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 83- ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 83-15. 17. August, 1983. 29. June, 1983. 48p. YacDonald, Glenn M.: "New directions in the Lazear, Edward P. and Michael, Robert T.: economic theory of agency." ERC/NORC "Compensation and productivity: Final re- Discussion Paper no. 84-7. April, 1984.- port." February, 1984. 234p. MacDonald. Glenn M. and Markusen. James Lazear, Edward P. and Michael Robert T.: "Es- R.: "A rehabilitation of absolute advantage.'' timating the personal distribution of income ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 84-5. with adjustment for within-family variation." May, 1984. 33p. ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 84-12. December, 1984, 36p. MacDonald, Glenn M. and Robinson, Chris: "Cautionary tails about arbitrary deletion of Lewin-Epstein, Noah: "The educational ex- observations (or: Thowing the variance out perience in comprehensive and differen- with the bathwater)." ERC/NORC Dius- tiated systems of schooling: A comparative sion Paper no. 84-11.Revised July, 1984. analysis." 39. 46~. Loft, John D. and Sheatsley, Paul B.: Final re- MacDonald, Glenn M. and Slivinskf, Alan D.: port on the Nationd Ambulatory Medical "Effidency and the structure of production." Care Survey. Submitted to National Center ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 83-21. for Health Statistics. January, 1983. 112p. December, 1983. 5Qp. (Revised version d University of Westem Ontario Research Re- McCready, Wiam C., editor: Culture, ethnic- port no. 8322;presented at the Winter 1983 ity, and identity: Current &sues in reseazh. meetings of the Econometric Society, San New York, Academic Press, 1983.lrxi,450p. Francisco, California.) McCready, William C.; Greeley, Andrew M.; and Theisen, Gary: "Ethnidty and nation- McElrqr, Marjorie B.: '"The joint determination aiyr m alcoholism." IN &nwm Kissin and of household memkhip and market wotk: Henri Begleiter, eds.: The pathogene& of The case of young men." ERC/NORC Dis- afcoholism: R~hosocial factos. (The Biol- cussion Paper no. 83-1.Preliminary. Janu- ogy of Alcoholism, Volume 6.) New York, ary, 1983. 35p. Plenum, 1983, pp. 309-340. McCubbtne, Mathew D. and Page, Benjamin Mare, Rob& a and Wins@, Christopher: I.: "Rational public opinion and its measure- ''The paradox of lessening racial inequality ment." Paper presented at the meetings of and joblessness among black youth: Enroll- the Midwest Political Science Association, ment, enbent, and employment, 1%- Chkago, April, 1984. 48p. 1981." American Sodo~Revfav,v. 49, no. 1, February, 1984, pp. 39-55. originally MacDonald, Glenn M.: "Equilibrium job mobil- ERCJNORC Discussion Paper no. 83-14.) Mare, Robert D.; Winship, Christopher; and gual Hispanics." Chapel Hill, NC, University Kubitschek, Warren N.: 'The transition of North Carolina. Revised, February, 1984. from youth to adult: Understanding the age 54. pattern of employment." American Journal of Mollogy, v. 90, no. 2, September, 1984, O'Brien, Mary Utne: "Do sex of interviewer and pp. 326-358. (Originally ERC/NORC Dis- sex of respondent interact to affect responses cussion Paper no. 83-2.) when questions are gender-related?Vanu- ary, 1985. 25p. Michael, Robert T.: "Consequences of the rise O'Brien, Mary Utne: "Methodology of the Air in female labor force participation rates: Force Study of Work Groups." January, Questions and probes." Journal of Labor 1985. To appear as Chapters 3 and 4 of Economics, v. 3, no. 1, January, 1985, Sup- Matthew Black: Report on the Air Ebrce plement, pp. 5117-S146. (Originally Study of Work Groups. Arlington, VA, Sys- ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 83-8.) tems Research and Applications, Inc. (forth- coming), 1985. Michael, Robert T. and Tuma. Nancy Bran- don: "Entry into marriage and parenthood O'Brien, Mary Utne: Report of a pretest of the by young adults." ERC/NORC Discussion survey instrument of the Vietnam Era Twin Paper no. 83-6. April, 1983 (September, Study Survey of Health. Chicago, NORC, 1982 draft). 4%. August, 1984. iii,5@. plus appendixes Michael, Robert T. and Tuma. Nancy Bran- (50p.l don: "Youth employment: Does life begin O'Brien, Mary Utne and Ingels, Steven J.: at 16?" Journal of Labor Economics, v. 2, Fbundation for Teaching Economics Report: no. 4, October, 1984, pp. 464-476. (Origi- The development of the Economic Values nally ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. Inventory. Chicago, NORC, March, 1984. 83-7.) ii,52p. plus appendixes (14p.) Mislevy, Robert d.: "Estimation of latent group Olson, Lorayn and Rosenfeld. Rachel A.: "Par- effects." Psychometric Technical Report no. ents and the process of gaining access to stu- 2, August, 1983. 31p. dent financial aid for higher education." Journal of Higher Education, v. 55, no. 4, Mooney, Geraldine M.: "The timing and use of July/August, 1984, pp. 455-480. postcards as a follow-up technique in mail surveys." Paper presented at the Field Direc- Olson, Lorayn and Rosenfeld, Rachel A. :"Par- tor's Conference, University of Wisconsin, ents, students, and knowledge of college Madison, May, 1984. 12p. costs." Paper presented at the meetings of the American Sociological Association, San Morgan, S. Philip: "A research note on religion Antonio, TX, August, 1984. 33p. and morality: Are religious people nice peo- ple?" Social Fbrces, v. 61, no. 3, Spring, Page. Benjamin I., and Shapiro, Robert Y.: 1983, pp. 683-692. "Effects of public opinion on policy." Arneri- can Political Science Review, v. 77, no. 1, Mroz, Thomas A.: "The sensitivity of an empir- March, 1983, pp. 175-190. ical model of married women's hours of work to economic and statistical assumptions." Page, Benjamin I. and Shapiro, Robert Y.: ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 84-8. Oc- "The mass media and changes in Ameri- tober, 1984. 65p. cans' policy preferences: A preliminary analysis." Paper presented at the meetings Nealon. Jack: "The effects of male vs. female of the Midwest Political Science Association, telephone interviewers." (SRS Staff Report Chicago, April, 1983. 37p. no. AGES830617.) Washington, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Statistical Page, Benjamin 1. and Shapirq Robert Y.: Reporting Services, June, 1983. ii,28p. "Presidents as opinion leaders: Some new evidence." %&cy Studies Journal, v. 12, no. Neumann, George R. and Topel, Robert H.: 4, June, 19%. "Employment risk, sectoral shifts and the geographic distribution of unemployment." Page, Benjamin I.; Shapiro. Robert Y.; and ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 84-3. Dempsey, Glenn R.: "Television news and Preliminary draft, January, 1984. 41p. changes in Americans' policy preferences." Paper presented at the meetings of the Mid- Nielsen, Francois and Lerner, Steven J.: "Lan- west Political Science Association, Chicago, guage skills and school achievement of bilin- ApriA L9&Zs4.48p. I Page, Benjamin I.; Shapiro, Robert Y.; Shapiro, Robert Y. and Gilroy. John M.: "The Gronke. Paul W.; and Rosenberg. Robert polls: Regulation - Part I." PuMic Opinion M.: "Constituency, party, and representa- Quarterly, v. 48, no. 2, Summer, 1984, pp. tion in Congress." Public Opinion Quarterly, 531-542. "Part 11." v. 48, no. 3, Fall, 1984, v. 48, no. 4, Winter, 1984, pp. 741-756. pp. 666-677. Peters, Elizabeth: "The impad of state divorce Shapiro, Robert Y. and Page, Benjamin I.: laws on the marital contract: Marriage, di- "Subgroup trends in pohcy choices: A vorce, and marital property settlements." preliminary report on some theories and ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 83-19. findings." Paper presented at the meetings September, 1983. 41p. of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April, 1984. 37p. Petason, Paul E.: Organizing schools in pluralist America, 1870-1940. Final report to the U.S. Sheatsley, Pa4 B.: "Health in the nation's National Institute of Education. Summer, values." Bulletin of the New York Academy 1983. viii,383p. of Medicine, v. 60, no. 1, January-February, 1984, pp. 5-13. Peterson, Paul E.; Rabe. Barry G.;and Wong, Kenneth: When federalism works. Final re- Sheatsley, Paul B.: "Opmion research and elec- port. Summer, 1984. xiii,321p. tion polls." Paper presented at the meetings of the southern chapter, AAPOR, Research Prewitt, Kenneth: "Management of survey Triangle Park, NC, April, 1983. Ilp. organizationsl' IN Peter H. Rossi, and others, eds. Handbook of survey research. New Sheatsley, Paul B.: "Questionnaire construction York: Academic Press, 1983, pp. 123-144. and item wording." IN Peter H. Rossi, and others, eds.: Handbook of survey research. Prost, Rolf: "Educational aims of the United New York, Academic Press, 1983, pp. States of America and in the Federal Repub- 195-230. lic of Germany: A cross national compari- son." GSS Technical Report no. 51, October, Singer, Eleanor; Frankel, Martin R.; and 1984, 26p. Glassman, Marc B.: "The effect of inter- viewer characteristics and expectations on re- Robinson, Chris and Tomes, Nigel: "Union sponse." 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G.: "Co- Schaeffer, Nora Cate, and Bradburn, Norman horts, education, and the decline in undis- M.: "Magnitude scales in the Informal rupted marriages." Journal of Marriage and Caregivers Survey." November, 1983.80~. the Family, August, 1983, pp. 613-622. Schuerman, John R. and Wuluyn. Fred H.: Smith. A. Wade and Meitz. June, E. G.: "Life- "Building a social experiment from survey course effects on marital disruption." Social data: Maximizing policy impact." October, Indicators Research, v. 13, no. 4, Novem- 1984. 9p. ber, 1983, pp. 395-417. Schumaker. Paul David; Getter, Russel W.; Smith, Tom W.: "American religious mosaic.'' and Clark, Teny N.: "Policy responsiveness American Demographics, v. 6 no. 6, June, and fiscal strain in 51 American communi- 1984, pp. 19-23. ties: A manual for studying city politics us- ing the NORC Permanent Community Sample," Washington, American Political Smith, Tom W.: "Atop a liberal plateau? A sum- Science Association, 1983. iv,6lp. mary of trends since World War 11." IN Teny Smith, Ibm W.: "The polls: American attitudes toward the 5oviet Union and comrnunlsmf' Public Opinion Quarterly, v. 47, no. 2, Sum- mer, 1983, pp. 277-292. Smith, Tom W.: 'The polls: Gender and atti- tudes toward violence." Public opinion Quarterfy, v. 48, no. 18 Spring, 1984, pp. 384-396. Smith, Tom W.: "A preliminary analysis of methodological experiments on the 1984 GSS." GSS Technical Report no. 49. Sep- tember, 1984. 43p. Smith. Tom W.: "Recalling attitudes: An analy- sis of retrospective questions on the 1982 GSS." Public Opinion Quarterly, v. 48, no. 3, Fall, 1984, pp. 639-649. (Originaly GSS Technical Report no. 35.) N. Clark, ed.: Raeatch in Urban hlicy, vol- Smith, Tom W.: "Problems in ethnic measure- ume 1. Greenwich, CT,JAI Press, 1985, pp. ment: Over- and under-misidentification.'' 245-257. (Originally a paper presented at hedingsof the Sodal Statistics Section, the meetings of the Midwest Association for 1983, American Statistid Association, pp. Public Opiion Research, Chicago, Novem- 107-116. (Originally GSS Technical Report ber, 1982.) ; ,## no. 29) Smith, Tom W.: "Attitude constraint as a func- Smith, Tom W.: "Using temporary refusal to es- tion of non-dective dimensions.'' GSS Tech- timate non-response bh."GSS Technical nical Report no. 39. Revised May, 1983. Report no. 38. February, 1983 (Revised, 23p. April, 1983). 24p. Smith. Tom W.: ''Chiidten and abortions: An ex- Smith, Tom W.: "Who, What, When, Where, periment in question order." GSS Technical and Why: An analysis of usage of the Report no. 42. July, 1983. llp. General Social Survey, 1972-1983." GSS Technical Report no. 48. August, 1984.16~. Smith, Tom W.: "Cycles of reform? A summary of trends since World War 11." Paper Smith. Tom W.: "Working wives and women's presented at the meetings of the American rights: The connection between the employ- !3ocioIogical Association, San Antonio, TX, ment status of wives and the feminii atti- August, 1984. 17p. tudes of husbands." GSS Technical Report no. 41. June, 1983, 12p. Smith, Tom W.: "Estimating nonresponse bias with temporary refusals." Sodological kr- Smith, Tom W., and Klaeea, Dsnnis L.: 'hk- spectives, v. 27, no. 4, October, 1984, pp. ing backwards: A summary of findings and 473-489. recommendations." Historical Methods, v. 16, no. 1, Winter, 1983, pp. 16-29. Smith, Tom W.: "An experimental comparison of clustered and scattered scale items.'"- Smith. Tom W. and Peterson, Bruce L.: "A cial A~,&ologyQuattedy, v. 46, no. 2, June, summary evaluation of GSS questions, 1983, pp. 163-168. (Originally GSS Tech- 1972-1983." GSS Technical Report no. 47. nical Report no. 36.) October, 1983. Preliminary version. 18p. Smith, Tom W.: "The hidden 25 percent: An Smith, Tom W. and Ward, Michelle: "Anno- analysis of nonresponse on the 1980 tated bibliography of papers using the General Social Survey." Public Opinion General Social Surveys." 5th edition. Quarterly, v. 47, no. 3, Fall, 1983, pp. 386- Chicago, NORC, May, 1984. 28%. 404. (Originally GSS Technical Report no. 25.) Stocking, Card Bowman: "The retationship be- tween secondary and higher education in Smith, Tom W.: "Laughing at the pok. How the the United States." Papa presented at the comics and cartoons view public opinion sw- Conference on the Refationship Between veys." December, 1984. 8p. Secondary and Higher Education: An Inter- Quarterlg v. 65, no. 2, June, 1984, pp. 607-617. Taub, Richard P.; Taylor. D Garth; and Dun- ham, Jan D.: Paths of neighborhood change: Race and crime in urban America. Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1984. xii,264p.

Thissen, David and Steinberg, Lynne: "A reponse model for multiple choice items." Psychometric Technical Report no. 1, De- cember, 1983. 51p. Tomes, Nigel: "The effects of religion and denomination on earnings and the returns to human capital." Journal of Human Resources, v. 19, no. 4, Fall, 1984, pp. 472-488. Topel, Robert H.: "Equilibrium earnings, turn- national View, University of California, Los over, and unemployment: New evidence." Angeles, July, 1983. 3%. Journal ofLabor Economics v. 2, no. 4, Oc- tober, 1984, pp. 500-522. Stocking, Carol B. and Owings. Jeffrey A.: Characteristics ofhigh school students who Topel, Robert H.: "Local labor markets." identify themselves as handicapped. Pre- ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 84-1. Re- pared for the National Center for Education vised December, 1983.48~.(An earlier draft Statistics. January, 1984. xiv,77p. was presented at the Hoover Institution Con- ference on Labor Markets, January, 1983.) Sudman, Seymour and Bradburn, Norman M.: Asking questions: A practical guide to Tourangeau, Roger H.: "Attitudes measurement: questionnaire design. San Francisco, CA, A cognitive perspective." Paper presented at Jossey-Bass, 1983. xvi,397p. the meetings of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Lake Delavan, Sudman, Seymour and Bradburn, Norman WI, May, 1984. 17p. M.: "Improving mailed questionnaire de- sign." IN Daniel C. Lockhart, ed.: Making ef- Tourangeau, Roger: "Cognitive science and sur- fective use of mailed questionnaires. (New vey methods." Paper presented at the Con- Directions for Program Evaluation, no. 21.) ference on Cognitive Aspects of Survey Beverly Hills, CA, Sage Publications, March, Methodology, St. Michael's MD, June 1983. 1984, pp. 33-47. 40p. 1 ' 1 Suelzle, Marijean; Singleton, Melody; and Weiss, Yoram and Willis, Robert J.: "Children Rosenfeld, Rachel: "Impact of the fit be- as collective goods and divorce settlements." tween students and universities: A compar- ERC/NORC Discussion Paper no. 84-4. ison of three Chicago area universities and February, 1984. 2%. their student bodies." IN Research in Social Stratif.ication and Mobility, v. 4: Personal Willis, Robert J.: "Life cycles, institutions, and change over the life course. Greenwich, CT, population growth: A theory of the JAI Press, 1983. equilibrium interest rate in the overlapping generations model.* ERC/NORC Discussion Sullivan. Twesa A.; Gillespie, Francis E?; Hout. Paper no. 83-16. July, 1983. 93p. Michael; and Greeley, Andrew M.: "Sur- name versus self-identification in the analy- Winship, Christopher and Mare, Robert D.: sis of Hispanic data." Proceedings of the "Regression models with ordinal variables." Social Statistics Section, 1983, American American Sociological Review, v. 49, no. 4, Statistical Association, pp. 117-122. August, 1984, pp. 512-525. Sullivan. Teresa A.; Gillespie, Francis I?; Hout, Winship, Christopher and Mare, Robert D.: Michael; and Rogers. Richard G.: "Alter- "Structural equations and path analysis for native estimates of Mexican American mor- discrete data." American Journal of Sociol- tality in Texas, 1980." Social Science ogy, v. 89, no. 1, July, 1983, pp. 54-110. Senior Editor and Principal Writer Principal Photographer Susan Campbell Sheryl Cook Bates Staff Editors Additional Photographs Suzanne Erfurth Diane Baguks, p.2 Jeffrey Hackeft Harvard University, p. 55 University of Chicago, pp. 13, 33 Compiler. Publications List UPI, pp. 7, 19, 29, 41, 53, 63 Patrick Bova Typesetter RT Associates, Inc.

Designer Printer Monica Tyrpak Printing Arts, Inc. BOARD OF TRUSTEES Robert McC. Adams. Secmhxy, The Smffhson.@m Institution - Norman M. Bradbum. m,by and - Hake tB&wished Seww Fr&mxr. Depart- mmt d BBhwfd %IWAS and The Wuate .- Schd Qf Busims gnd The Wege; MmBer; Comrnrttae on PuMie: Policy Studies and #tab man, Commutae on Sunrey Ramrch-The Uniwersw uf CtricagO Willlam B. Cannbn. RvWcu. Schml Of Social Servlc& Administration; Member, CBrnm!tbe an Public Policy studtea-* uniwQf OhimgQ D. Gale Johnson, Wdenf NORC Board d 'fnr- Eliakim Hastinga MOOZBWstlnguished %a EXECUTIVE MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE ~and~Prf~Un~d~abeh- sram Depatmnt dEammks and- Con-; Dirertar, Robert 1: Michael Mernb, Committee on Public hUey Stud&- The Unhrenity of Chicag~ AsSo&&Mfap~Thami~4G.W Nathan K%liitr, Pmbmr Emerttu, hm~dUniw Assmiate Lkectm h !hwey Opm&e, CCelja E. mi m,Inurnatbnd hswb Applied Hornan& Systems Anal* Dit:eau of &e CuJttUsl Rymlbm Raremh Center, EveiynM.Kit$dl;aaRZ~,~td~I- WUUam C. Mdhaif~ agy; Assome lhmor, %pubon R-mh R&&oI of the Social Poky -=plch Center, Had Center-The Univenffy of Chicago A. Richman WiLOam H. Kr- hast DaWitt Burirrn m- ihthg Director of the Ecammtm ao?ppBLCdl Center, Quished Setwoe MmrVDepartment d SMs- tics aa8 The Collegs; Member, Cornme on Public Po@ Shdtes and Comlmittee on Survey -- Resxwh-The Uniwmity of Chi~aga w, amer Edroard 8. L~WI,BM~Remi Dlviaon of rha SoslaI OFFICERS OF THE CORWIRWION scienm-lqgbum---hthe Study of Populatron and Sgdd C3qp1itmtion; Preskht, D. Gale ddroson Professor, Department of SecioW ead T~E Vice Presideat, Norman M. Bradbum Chllqp-The University of ehiceyda Sw,Robert T. MicQael Albert Madaasky, FWessx, The Graduate Schagl of Business; Diecbr, C;e* fez the M-nt Tiwswer, Thames G. Gerst of Wi and NmpdEn&p&e-%e Un'ier- sity of Chicago Wter E. Masey, Vke Pdentfor UhPrs- @am and fur Argmne Ndcmal Eabontto9y; ktbor, Lhparbnent Eif: Phpb-The UnIw of Chi- Ralph W. MuUer, Vtm-hasidant tor HmpitaL and Clinics-The Univasfty of chrcag~ Arthur C. NleJsen, dr.. Chairman of the Board, A6 Web Conipany -5~; HamC! Roberts. Professor, Graduate School dbd- ;.';-, 8 (y ness, The UnivB18ity cd Ch~cago ;%:A> ;%:A> LC1" ,@ '4'> ..:> WiUiam H. Sd,Vihs Rawarch Mam, Depart- ,,4<7 bent of Sodology, University of Wbdn b .r' 1 I.. . Eleanor Sheldon, New Wrk Newr Ybrk