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Futures Past Futures Past. Economic Forecasting in the 20th and 21st Century LITERATUR — KULTUR — ÖKONOMIE LITERATURE — CULTURE — ECONOMY Herausgegeben von / Edited by Christine Künzel, Axel Haunschild, Birger P. Priddat, Thomas Rommel, Franziska Schößler und / and Yvette Sánchez VOLUME 5 Wissenschaftlicher Beirat / Editorial Board: Dr. phil. Georgiana Banita, Bamberg Dr. Bernd Blaschke, Bern Prof. Dr. Elena Esposito, Bielefeld / Bologna Univ.-Doz. Dr. Nadja Gernalzick, Mainz / Wien Prof. Dr. Anton Kirchhofer, Oldenburg Prof. Dr. Stefan Neuhaus, Koblenz Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Wolfgang Reinhard, Freiburg i.Br. Prof. Dr. Peter Seele, Lugano Prof. Dr. Urs Stäheli, Hamburg Zu Qualitätssicherung und Peer Review Notes on the quality assurance and peer der vorliegenden Publikation review of this publication Die Qualität der in dieser Reihe Prior to publication, the quality of the erscheinenden Arbeiten wird vor der work published in this series is double Publikation durch einen externen, von der blind reviewed by an external referee Herausgeberschaft benannten Gutachter appointed by the editorship. The im Double Blind Verfahren geprüft. Dabei referee is not aware of the author's ist der Autor der Arbeit dem Gutachter name when performing the review; während der Prüfung namentlich nicht the referee's name is not disclosed. bekannt; der Gutachter bleibt anonym. LITERATUR — KULTUR — ÖKONOMIE Ulrich Fritsche / Roman Köster / Laetitia Lenel (eds.) LITERATURE — CULTURE — ECONOMY Herausgegeben von / Edited by Christine Künzel, Axel Haunschild, Birger P. Priddat, Thomas Rommel, Franziska Schößler und / and Yvette Sánchez VOLUME 5 Futures Past. Economic Forecasting Wissenschaftlicher Beirat / Editorial Board: th st in the 20 and 21 Century Dr. phil. Georgiana Banita, Bamberg Dr. Bernd Blaschke, Bern Prof. Dr. Elena Esposito, Bielefeld / Bologna Univ.-Doz. Dr. Nadja Gernalzick, Mainz / Wien Prof. Dr. Anton Kirchhofer, Oldenburg Prof. Dr. Stefan Neuhaus, Koblenz Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Wolfgang Reinhard, Freiburg i.Br. Prof. Dr. Peter Seele, Lugano Prof. Dr. Urs Stäheli, Hamburg Zu Qualitätssicherung und Peer Review Notes on the quality assurance and peer der vorliegenden Publikation review of this publication Die Qualität der in dieser Reihe Prior to publication, the quality of the erscheinenden Arbeiten wird vor der work published in this series is double Publikation durch einen externen, von der blind reviewed by an external referee Herausgeberschaft benannten Gutachter appointed by the editorship. The im Double Blind Verfahren geprüft. Dabei referee is not aware of the author's ist der Autor der Arbeit dem Gutachter name when performing the review; während der Prüfung namentlich nicht the referee's name is not disclosed. bekannt; der Gutachter bleibt anonym. Bibliographic Information published by the Deutsche Nationalbibliothek The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data is available online at http://dnb.d-nb.de. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A CIP catalog record for this book has been applied for at the Library of Congress. We acknowledge support by the Open Access Publication Fund of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Cover Illustration: @iStock.com/MissTuni Printed by CPI books GmbH, Leck ISSN 2364-1304 ISBN 978-3-631-79316-9 (Print) E-ISBN 978-3-631-81869-5 (E-Book) E-ISBN 978-3-631-81870-1 (EPUB) E-ISBN 978-3-631-81871-8 (MOBI) DOI 10.3726/b16817 Open Access: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution CC-BY 4.0 license. To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ © Ulrich Fritsche, Roman Köster & Laetitia Lenel, 2020 Peter Lang – Berlin · Bern · Bruxelles · New York · Oxford · Warszawa · Wien This publication has been peer reviewed. www.peterlang.com Bibliographic Information published by the Deutsche Nationalbibliothek The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Table of Contents Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data is available online at http://dnb.d-nb.de. List of Authors .................................................................................. 7 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A CIP catalog record for this book has been applied for at the Laetitia Lenel, Roman Köster, and Ulrich Fritsche Library of Congress. Introduction ...................................................................................... 11 We acknowledge support by the Open Access Publication Fund of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Tara M. Sinclair Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting ................ 31 Jan Logemann Measuring and Managing Expectations: Consumer Confidence as an Economic Indicator, 1920s–1970s ................................................ 43 Marion Ronca The Economist as Futurologist: The Making and the Public Cover Illustration: @iStock.com/MissTuni Reception of the Perspektivstudien in Switzerland, 1964–1975 ......... 75 Printed by CPI books GmbH, Leck Timo Walter ISSN 2364-1304 The Janus Face of Inflation Targeting: How Governing Market ISBN 978-3-631-79316-9 (Print) Expectations of the Future Imprisons Monetary Policy in a E-ISBN 978-3-631-81869-5 (E-Book) Normalized Present ........................................................................... 105 E-ISBN 978-3-631-81870-1 (EPUB) E-ISBN 978-3-631-81871-8 (MOBI) Werner Reichmann DOI 10.3726/b16817 Social Interaction, Emotion, and Economic Forecasting .................... 139 Olivier Pilmis The Dynamics of Expectations: A Sequential Perspective on Open Access: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Macroeconomic Forecasting .............................................................. 163 CC-BY 4.0 license. To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Jörg Döpke, Ulrich Fritsche, and Gabi Waldhof Never Change a Losing Horse?: On Adaptations in German © Ulrich Fritsche, Roman Köster & Laetitia Lenel, 2020 Forecasting after the Great Financial Crisis ....................................... 191 Peter Lang – Berlin · Bern · Bruxelles · New York · Oxford · Warszawa · Wien This publication has been peer reviewed. www.peterlang.com List of Authors Jörg Döpke teaches economics and empirical research methods at the University of Applied Sciences, Merseburg. Before joining this institution, he has been affiliated with the Kiel Institute of World Economics and the German central bank. Research interests include empirical macroeco- nomics and business cycle forecasting. Contact: [email protected]. Ulrich Fritsche is an economist and Full Professor of Economics, esp. Applied Economics at Universität Hamburg. His research interests include forecasting methods, macroeconomic expectation formation of households and experts, and time series econometrics. Contact: [email protected]. Roman Köster is currently Visiting Professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich. His research interests include economic and environmental his- tory with focus on the 20th century. Among other topics he has written about the “Crisis” of German economics during the 1920s (“Die Wissenschaft der Außenseiter,” 2011) and the history of waste management after 1945 in West Germany (“Hausmüll. Abfall und Gesellschaft in Westdeutschland 1945–1990,” 2017). Contact: [email protected]. Laetitia Lenel is a Ph.D. candidate at the Department of History at Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Her research focuses on economic knowl- edge practices and the history of capitalism. Her research project, which is part of the Priority Programme 1859 “Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour” funded by the German Research Foundation, explores the Euro-American history of business forecasting in the 20th century. Contact: [email protected]. Jan Logemann is assistant professor (Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter and Privatdozent) at the Institute for Economic and Social History, Georg August University of Göttingen. He explores modern U.S. American and German economic history from a transnational perspective. He 8 List of Authors most recently published “Engineered to Sell: European Emigrés and the Making of Consumer Capitalism” (Chicago University Press, 2019) and is co-editor (with Gary Cross and Ingo Köhler) of “Consumer Engineering, 1920s–1970s: Marketing between Expert Planning and Consumer Responsiveness” (Palgrave Macmillan, 2019). Contact: [email protected]. Olivier Pilmis is a Research Fellow in Sociology at the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) and a member of the Centre de Sociologie des Organisations (Sciences Po - CNRS). His research applies economic sociology, organizational sociology, and sociological theory to the study of macroeconomic forecasting. Contact: [email protected]. Werner Reichmann is a sociologist and Privatdozent at the University of Konstanz. He analyzes economics and economic forecasting from a socio- logical perspective, works on human interaction under digital conditions, and investigates the connections between architecture and society. Further information can be found at www.wernerreichmann.net. Contact: [email protected]. Marion Ronca is currently Ph.D. candidate and scientific researcher at the University of Zurich. She writes her Ph.D. thesis on the history of eco- nomic observation in Switzerland. Her research interests are among others the history of economic thought, quantitative rationalization as modern
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