Greater London Authority

Consumer Expenditure and Comparison Goods Retail Floorspace Need in London March 2009 Consumer Expenditure and Comparison Goods Retail Floorspace Need in London A report by Experian for the Greater London Authority March 2009 copyright Greater London Authority March 2009 Published by Greater London Authority City Hall The Queen’s Walk London SE1 2AA www.london.gov.uk enquiries 020 7983 4100 minicom 020 7983 4458 ISBN 978 1 84781 227 8 This publication is printed on recycled paper Experian - Business Strategies Cardinal Place 6th Floor 80 Victoria Street London SW1E 5JL T: +44 (0) 207 746 8255 F: +44 (0) 207 746 8277 This project was funded by the Greater London Authority and the London Development Agency. The views expressed in this report are those of Experian Business Strategies and do not necessarily represent those of the Greater London Authority or the London Development Agency. 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................... 5 BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................................... 5 CONSUMER EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS .................................................................................... 6 CURRENT COMPARISON FLOORSPACE PROVISION ....................................................................... 9 RETAIL CENTRE TURNOVER........................................................................................................ 9 COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE REQUIREMENTS ................................................................ 13 SHOPPER MOVEMENTS ACROSS THE GREATER LONDON BOUNDARY .......................................... 15 2 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 16 3 BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................... 17 KEY OBJECTIVES ..................................................................................................................... 18 4 PROJECT SCOPE ........................................................................................................... 19 STAGE 1 – CONSUMER EXPENDITURE FORECASTS................................................................... 19 STAGE 2A – COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE NEED (BASELINE) .......................................... 19 STAGE 2B – COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE NEED (TIMELINE) ........................................... 20 5 STAGE 1 .......................................................................................................................... 21 CONSUMERS’ EXPENDITURE ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS: INTRODUCTION ................................. 21 SPENDING BY LONDON RESIDENTS ........................................................................................... 22 London-level estimates and forecasts.............................................................................. 22 Comparison with previous estimates and forecasts......................................................... 24 Small area estimates ........................................................................................................ 25 Small area forecasts......................................................................................................... 28 SPEND BY UK RESIDENTS FROM OUTSIDE OF LONDON .............................................................. 29 SPEND BY TOURISTS................................................................................................................ 31 Tourism spend in London................................................................................................. 31 Out-of-region tourism spend............................................................................................. 33 Commuter spend .............................................................................................................. 34 SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING.................................................................................................... 35 Small Area estimates of non-store retail sales (SFT)....................................................... 37 6 STAGE 2A – COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE NEED - BASE SCENARIO...... 39 CURRENT (2006) COMPARISON FLOORSPACE PROVISION .......................................................... 39 Choice of retail destinations included in the project ......................................................... 40 Health check survey ......................................................................................................... 41 DETERMINING RETAIL CATCHMENT AREAS – EXPERIAN SHOPPER SURVEYS ................................ 42 MODELLING FUTURE TURNOVER ESTIMATES.............................................................................. 43 Attractiveness scores ....................................................................................................... 43 Gravity modelling - general............................................................................................... 44 Equations used to apportion expenditure......................................................................... 45 Gravity modelling – GLA specifics.................................................................................... 47 Generating catchments .................................................................................................... 51 INCORPORATING TOURIST AND COMMUTER SPEND .................................................................... 53 Tourism............................................................................................................................. 53 Commuter spend .............................................................................................................. 53 TURNOVER ESTIMATES – BASE SCENARIO................................................................................. 57 Assumptions used to create turnover estimates .............................................................. 57 Modelled comparison goods expenditure by centre (2006) ............................................. 58 7 STAGE 2B – COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE NEED - FUTURE SCENARIOS82 ANALYSIS OF PIPELINE DEVELOPMENTS .................................................................................... 82 IMPACT STUDIES...................................................................................................................... 83 MODELLED SCENARIOS............................................................................................................ 84 TURNOVER ESTIMATES (TIMELINE) ........................................................................................... 84 TURNOVER ESTIMATES – KEY DEVELOPMENTS .......................................................................... 86 8 CAPACITY, SALES DENSITY AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH ................................ 110 INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................... 110 DEFINING CAPACITY – WHAT IS RETAIL SPACE PRODUCTIVITY/EFFICIENCY GROWTH? ................ 110 CAPACITY IN 2006................................................................................................................. 112 FUTURE CAPACITY AND SPARE CAPACITY................................................................................ 112 SPACE REQUIREMENTS (TIMELINE SCENARIO)......................................................................... 112 9 LONDON-REST OF THE SOUTH EAST (ROSE) INTERACTION ............................... 121 SPENDING IN THE REST OF SOUTH EAST (ROSE) REGION ...................................................... 122 ROSE CENTRE COMPARISON FLOORSPACE AND EXPENDITURE ESTIMATES, 2006..................... 123 10 ONGOING ANALYSIS ................................................................................................... 126 11 FURTHER INFORMATION............................................................................................ 126 APPENDIX 1 - MOSAIC ......................................................................................................... 127 MOSAIC UK .......................................................................................................................... 127 APPENDIX 2 - LIST OF CENTRES INCLUDED WITHIN THE ANALYSIS .......................... 130 GENERATION OF THE LIST ...................................................................................................... 130 APPENDIX 3 - EXPERIAN'S PROVISION OF RETAIL DATA.............................................. 147 GOAD.................................................................................................................................. 147 ESTIMATING FLOORSPACE FOR NON-GOAD CENTRES .............................................................. 148 APPENDIX 4 - EXPERIAN’S DEFINITION OF RETAIL CENTRES...................................... 149 GOAD CENTRE BOUNDARIES................................................................................................ 149 APPENDIX 5 - LIST OF KEY ATTRACTOR HOLDING GROUPS ....................................... 198 KEY ATTRACTORS WITHIN THE GRAVITY MODELLING PROCESS ................................................. 198 APPENDIX 6 - FULL BREAKDOWN OF EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES ........................... 200 ESTIMATES OF SPENDING ON RETAIL GOODS IN 2006 – FINE CATEGORIES............................... 201 APPENDIX 7 - ANNUAL

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