Greater London Authority

Consumer Expenditure and Comparison Goods Retail Floorspace Need in London

March 2009

Consumer Expenditure and Comparison Goods Retail Floorspace Need in London

A report by Experian for the Greater London Authority

March 2009

Greater London Authority March 2009

Published by Greater London Authority City Hall The Queen’s Walk London SE1 2AA www.london.gov.uk enquiries 020 7983 4100 minicom 020 7983 4458

ISBN 978 1 84781 227 8

This publication is printed on recycled paper

Experian - Business Strategies Cardinal Place 6th Floor 80 Victoria Street London SW1E 5JL T: +44 (0) 207 746 8255 F: +44 (0) 207 746 8277

This project was funded by the Greater London Authority and the London Development Agency.

The views expressed in this report are those of Experian Business Strategies and do not necessarily represent those of the Greater London Authority or the London Development Agency.

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...... 5 BACKGROUND ...... 5 CONSUMER EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS ...... 6 CURRENT COMPARISON FLOORSPACE PROVISION ...... 9 RETAIL CENTRE TURNOVER...... 9 COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE REQUIREMENTS ...... 13 SHOPPER MOVEMENTS ACROSS THE GREATER LONDON BOUNDARY ...... 15 2 INTRODUCTION ...... 16

3 BACKGROUND ...... 17 KEY OBJECTIVES ...... 18 4 PROJECT SCOPE ...... 19 STAGE 1 – CONSUMER EXPENDITURE FORECASTS...... 19 STAGE 2A – COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE NEED (BASELINE) ...... 19 STAGE 2B – COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE NEED (TIMELINE) ...... 20 5 STAGE 1 ...... 21 CONSUMERS’ EXPENDITURE ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS: INTRODUCTION ...... 21 SPENDING BY LONDON RESIDENTS ...... 22 London-level estimates and forecasts...... 22 Comparison with previous estimates and forecasts...... 24 Small area estimates ...... 25 Small area forecasts...... 28 SPEND BY UK RESIDENTS FROM OUTSIDE OF LONDON ...... 29 SPEND BY TOURISTS...... 31 Tourism spend in London...... 31 Out-of-region tourism spend...... 33 Commuter spend ...... 34 SPECIAL FORMS OF TRADING...... 35 Small Area estimates of non-store retail sales (SFT)...... 37 6 STAGE 2A – COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE NEED - BASE SCENARIO...... 39 CURRENT (2006) COMPARISON FLOORSPACE PROVISION ...... 39 Choice of retail destinations included in the project ...... 40 Health check survey ...... 41 DETERMINING RETAIL CATCHMENT AREAS – EXPERIAN SHOPPER SURVEYS ...... 42 MODELLING FUTURE TURNOVER ESTIMATES...... 43 Attractiveness scores ...... 43 Gravity modelling - general...... 44 Equations used to apportion expenditure...... 45 Gravity modelling – GLA specifics...... 47 Generating catchments ...... 51 INCORPORATING TOURIST AND COMMUTER SPEND ...... 53 Tourism...... 53 Commuter spend ...... 53 TURNOVER ESTIMATES – BASE SCENARIO...... 57 Assumptions used to create turnover estimates ...... 57 Modelled comparison goods expenditure by centre (2006) ...... 58 7 STAGE 2B – COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE NEED - FUTURE SCENARIOS82 ANALYSIS OF PIPELINE DEVELOPMENTS ...... 82 IMPACT STUDIES...... 83

MODELLED SCENARIOS...... 84 TURNOVER ESTIMATES (TIMELINE) ...... 84 TURNOVER ESTIMATES – KEY DEVELOPMENTS ...... 86 8 CAPACITY, SALES DENSITY AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH ...... 110 INTRODUCTION...... 110 DEFINING CAPACITY – WHAT IS RETAIL SPACE PRODUCTIVITY/EFFICIENCY GROWTH? ...... 110 CAPACITY IN 2006...... 112 FUTURE CAPACITY AND SPARE CAPACITY...... 112 SPACE REQUIREMENTS (TIMELINE SCENARIO)...... 112 9 LONDON-REST OF THE SOUTH EAST (ROSE) INTERACTION ...... 121 SPENDING IN THE REST OF SOUTH EAST (ROSE) REGION ...... 122 ROSE CENTRE COMPARISON FLOORSPACE AND EXPENDITURE ESTIMATES, 2006...... 123 10 ONGOING ANALYSIS ...... 126

11 FURTHER INFORMATION...... 126

APPENDIX 1 - MOSAIC ...... 127 MOSAIC UK ...... 127 APPENDIX 2 - LIST OF CENTRES INCLUDED WITHIN THE ANALYSIS ...... 130 GENERATION OF THE LIST ...... 130 APPENDIX 3 - EXPERIAN'S PROVISION OF RETAIL DATA...... 147 GOAD...... 147 ESTIMATING FLOORSPACE FOR NON-GOAD CENTRES ...... 148 APPENDIX 4 - EXPERIAN’S DEFINITION OF RETAIL CENTRES...... 149 GOAD CENTRE BOUNDARIES...... 149 APPENDIX 5 - LIST OF KEY ATTRACTOR HOLDING GROUPS ...... 198 KEY ATTRACTORS WITHIN THE GRAVITY MODELLING PROCESS ...... 198 APPENDIX 6 - FULL BREAKDOWN OF EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES ...... 200 ESTIMATES OF SPENDING ON RETAIL GOODS IN 2006 – FINE CATEGORIES...... 201 APPENDIX 7 - ANNUAL EXPENDITURE BY DETAILED PRODUCT GROUP 2006-2031 . 202

APPENDIX 8 - RESULTS FROM STAGE 2A (BASE SCENARIO) ...... 238

APPENDIX 9 - PIPELINE DEVELOPMENTS ...... 249 LIST OF PIPELINE DEVELOPMENTS ...... 249 APPENDIX 10 - RESULTS FROM STAGE 2B (FUTURE SCENARIOS) ...... 260 GROSS TOTAL COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE REQUIREMENTS...... 260 APPENDIX 11 – NET ADDITIONAL COMPARSION GOODS FLOORSPACE REQUIREMENTS BY BOROUGH ...... 291

APPENDIX 12 – NET ADDITIONAL COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE REQUIREMENTS BY TOWN CENTRE ...... 296

APPENDIX 13 - MAPS OF CATCHMENT AREAS BASED ON 'BASE' (2008) AND 'TIMELINE' (2018) SCENARIOS...... 326 CATCHMENT AREA OVERVIEW ...... 326 APPENDIX 14 - DERIVATION OF COMPARISON GOODS SALES DENSITY GROWTH.. 345 MEASURING SALES DENSITIES...... 345 FLOORSPACE, SALES AND SALES DENSITY GROWTH ...... 347 AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH IN ENGLAND & WALES ...... 347 INFLUENCE OF LONGER OPENING HOURS ...... 348 INFLUENCE OF 24 HOUR SHOPPING ...... 349 THE FUTURE FOR RETAIL SALES DENSITIES ...... 350 APPENDIX 15 - SUMMARY OF DATA SOURCES USED...... 352 LIST OF KEY DATA SOURCES...... 352 APPENDIX 16 - BACKGROUND TO EXPERIAN...... 353 EXPERIAN BUSINESS STRATEGIES ...... 353

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Background 1.1 The Greater London Authority (GLA) appointed Experian to develop a comprehensive picture of current and future comparison goods floorspace needs throughout London for 5 year periods to 2031. This has involved estimating and forecasting spending on comparison goods in all centres in London identifying centres where the need for floorspace is greatest. The project is both current and forward-looking, factoring in major retail pipeline developments in and around the capital to 2031. In addition, the study has assessed the scale and nature of consumer expenditure across London (total and average per capita) for comparison goods, convenience goods, and other expenditure including leisure over the period 2006 to 2031.

1.2 It is a broad, strategic, region wide assessment of the floorspace need associated with these centres, providing the context and coordination framework for more local and precise studies to be undertaken in line with PPS6 for individual boroughs and development proposals. It will enable boroughs and the GLA to consider systematically the possible future roles of centres in meeting need. It will inform revisions to the town centre network in the light of the results of the town centre health checks and in the broader context of UDPs and LDFs.

1.3 The first stage of the project comprised building an update of the GLA’s borough-level comparison goods expenditure forecasts into floorspace need estimates and distributing this growth among existing centres in line with evidence from shopper surveys. It provides a base scenario (that is, assuming no new developments 2006-2031) showing comparison goods floorspace need associated with approximately 300+ existing centres as they are at present. These centres are the 200 International, Metropolitan, Major and District centres identified in the London Plan and additionally the main retail frontages within the Central Activities Zone (CAZ), selected Neighbourhood and More Local centres, and out-of-centre retail locations in London as well as centres which lie outside London but absorb London residents’ expenditure.

1.4 The second stage consisted of a ‘future proposals’ scenario following the same basic methodology but showing the impact on the Base scenario (trade diversion to/from existing centres) of all significant retail proposals across London. It highlights the potential impact of the known

proposals for major retail developments including Elephant & Castle, White City, Wembley, Kings Cross, Battersea, Brent Cross, Stratford and Croydon. The general accuracy of the information on the scale and nature of these proposals were confirmed by the relevant boroughs before incorporation in the model. Where only the scale of the proposal is known, a view has been taken by Experian as to the nature/composition of the development in the light of broadly comparable formats elsewhere. In neither circumstance should it be taken to imply that either the boroughs or the GLA would necessarily support these proposals.

1.5 Output has been mapped and presented in tabular form to show the overall revised distribution and differences/diversions from the base scenario. This exercise should be seen as complementary to individual impact assessments already being undertaken on behalf of the applicants for some of these proposals. It differs from them in being a public sector-funded and strategic London wide study and concerned with the cumulative impact of all the proposals. It provides a transparent basis for comparison and calibration with other impact assessments in line with good planning practice.

Consumer expenditure projections 1.6 Total London estimates and projections of residential spend on comparison goods, convenience goods and other goods and services are based on data on household spending from the Regional Accounts, GLA demographic projections and forecasts for total household spending produced by Experian for GLA Economics. There are no official estimates of consumer spending below the London level, but these small area estimates are an essential component of modelling expenditure at retail centre level. Therefore we have apportioned out the total expenditure, using the socio-demographic-economic make-up of small areas (Experian Mosaic) to infer local spending levels.

1.7 The proportional growth of residential expenditure between 2006 and 2031 has been mapped geographically at the small area level (see Figure 1). Residential expenditure growth within Greater London is pronounced within the North East Sub region where large-scale housing developments are planned to take place over the next decade.

Figure 1: Proportional Growth Of Residential Expenditureby London residents within London, 2006-2031

No Change 0 - 100

100 - 150 150 - 200 200 - 250 250 or more

1.8 Experian’s estimate of total household expenditure by Londoners in 2006 is £89 billion (see Table 1), and this figure is projected to rise to £160 billion by 2031. The projected growth rates for comparison goods used in this study are lower than those used in the 2004 Experian study reflecting the recent downturn in the UK economy (4.3 per cent per annum rather than 4.8 per cent). The projections for the latter five year periods must be treated with caution due to the inherent uncertainties of the economy in the longer term.

Table 1: Estimated and forecast household spending by London residents (£m, 2003 prices) Convenience Comparison Other goods & Total goods goods services spending* 2001 10,947 16,629 53,897 81,473 2006 11,844 23,213 53,866 88,922 2011 12,928 28,772 58,469 100,169 2016 13,962 35,455 65,135 114,551 2021 14,970 43,796 69,883 128,650 2026 16,008 53,953 73,534 143,495 2031 17,325 67,270 75,984 160,579 Annual average growth rates: 2001-2006 1.6 6.9 0.0 1.8 2006-2016 1.7 4.3 1.9 2.6 2006-2026 1.5 4.3 1.6 2.4 2006-2031 1.5 4.3 1.4 2.4 * Excluding spending abroad and imputed rent.

1.9 Our expenditure estimates also incorporate day-to-day shopping spend from outside Greater London. This is derived in a similar way to London spend, using Mosaic to generate small area estimates and ONS population forecasts to project these forward. Unlike those for London, these figures are not constrained to any particular regional forecasts.

1.10 There are no official estimates of how much in London is spent near the workplace rather than on destination shopping trips. We have therefore used the daytime socio-demographic-economic make-up of small areas (Daytime Mosaic) to infer local spending levels. Worker expenditure has then been apportioned to surrounding retail locations using our gravity modelling techniques.

1.11 Experian’s estimates of comparison goods spend incorporate inflow by overnight tourists from the UK and overseas and leakage from London residents to domestic and international tourist destinations. Overnight tourist data has been projected forward to 2031 using the International Passenger Survey, the UK Tourism Survey and the GLA’s Hotel Demand Study. Account is also taken of the leakage of expenditure when Londoners make overnight tourist trips to the rest of the UK and of the loss from special forms of trading (such as online spending). (See Table 2.)

Table 2: Composition of comparison goods spending in London, £m London % Total RoSE % Total Tourist % Total Total Residents Residents spend 2006 20,072 81.9 2,330 9.5 2,120 8.6 24,522 2016 28,725 82.7 3,209 9.2 2,805 8.1 34,739 2026 43,731 81.8 6,009 11.2 3,692 6.9 53,432 2031 54,537 80.6 6,153 9.1 6,942 10.3 67,632 Average Growth 4.1% 4.0% 4.9% 4.1% rate 2006-31

Current comparison floorspace provision 1.12 Experian used its own Goad database as the source of existing floorspace provision with an allowance made from comparison goods space on upper floors/basements. This database is updated annually by a team of professional surveyors. Goad's floorspace figures are based on Ordnance Survey gross surface area calculations rather than net trading areas. The categorisation by Goad of what constitutes comparison retail, and the treatment of upper floors, have both been harmonised in order to match as closely as possible the definition used by the CLG/VOA for the State of the Cities Database.

1.13 The Goad database also enables a dynamic rating of the strength of the centre as a retail destination, which contributes to the attractiveness scores of centres used in the model.

Retail centre turnover 1.14 Experian runs Britain's largest survey of shopping patterns. In total the survey has had 4.8 million responses to date from across the UK, including 1.2 million since 2006. The product covers 2,500 town centres, retail parks and shopping malls across Britain. The survey has revealed

distinct trading patterns – especially out of town and in town centres where public transport is a significant determinant of the catchment – that are not revealed when notional drivetime catchments are used.

1.15 The expenditure forecasts (retail ‘demand’) and the Goad database adjusted to allow for comparison goods space on upper floors/basements (retail ‘supply’) were used to generate a gravity model of comparison goods expenditure in London. This model was calibrated according to current shopping patterns, as observed in the survey. By adjusting the supply and demand inputs, it is capable of running ‘what if’ scenarios that model future changes to London’s retail scene and assess the impact to centres’ turnovers. Commuter and tourist spend are added as separate layers to the model. (see Figure 2).

1.16 Only developments within Greater London of over 10,000 square metres comparison retail are assumed to make a significant impact on London's shopping expenditure patterns.

1.17 When all of the major retail developments are taken into account (the ‘Timeline’ scenario), we can assess the impact on the turnover of each centre within Greater London, and how this affects their relative rankings. Although the projected turnovers are less than if the new developments did not take place, almost all centres show some degree of growth.

1.18 We see White City and Stratford rising up the turnover ranking as a result of their developments. Only the positions of the West End and Kings Road East are unchanged and the remaining centres’ ranks fall as a result of the increased turnovers of the expanding centres. (Table 3.)

Table 3: Timeline change in London comparison turnover ranking, 2006-2031

Centre name Class Rank 2006 Rank 2031 Change in rank 2006- 2031 West End International 1 1 No Change White City Additional - 2 - Knightsbridge International 2 3 -1 Stratford Major 40 4 36 Croydon Metropolitan 4 5 -1 Kingston Metropolitan 3 6 -3 Bromley Metropolitan 5 7 -2 Kings Road East Major 8 8 No Change Ilford Metropolitan 6 9 -3 Romford Metropolitan 7 10 -3 Elephant and Castle District 216 11 205 Canary Wharf Major 15 12 3 Camden Town Major 14 13 1 Sutton Metropolitan 10 14 -4 Uxbridge Metropolitan 9 15 -6 Battersea Additional 278 16 262 Brent Cross Additional 19 17 2 Wood Green Metropolitan 12 18 -6 Harrow Metropolitan 11 19 -8 Croydon - Purley Way Additional 13 20 -7

Figure 2: Flow Diagram Of Key Project Inputs

RETAIL SUPPLY CONSUMER DEMAND - Floorspace Information - Residential Expenditure Valuation Office (VOA)

- Pipeline DevelDevelopmentsopments

COMPARISON - Tourism Expenditure FLOORSPACE NEED

ACCESSIBILTY

CALIBRATION - Commuter Expenditure - Consumer Surveys - Sales Densities

1.19 The majority of the developments are projected, in isolation, to impact on nearby centres by less than 5 per cent. Only the most substantial schemes – those at Stratford, White City and Elephant & Castle – reduce neighbouring centres’ turnover by more than this.

1.20 The largest impacts on the West End are caused by new schemes at White City (1.7 per cent), Brent Cross (1.5 per cent) and Stratford (0.6 per cent), by virtue of their scale and proximity to the centre of London. Because of the size of the West End's shopper catchment area, covering the whole of London and the South East, no single development is projected to have a greater impact than this. The estimated cumulative impact of the developments on the West End is 5.1 per cent (by 2031).

1.21 The cumulative (Timeline) scenario shows that the greatest combined impacts are on those centres to the west of the centre of the city where the effect of the White City development can been seen on centres such as Hammersmith and Kensington High Street. Similarly to the south and east of the centre of the city, the effect of multiple developments including Stratford and Elephant & Castle hit centres that the model is assuming remain static, such as Ilford, Peckham and East Ham.

Comparison Goods Floorspace requirements 1.22 The projections of retail turnover for 5 year increments between 2006 and 2031 have been converted into actual need for additional comparison goods retail space identifying the ‘gross total’ need (including developments in the planning pipeline) and the ‘net’ additional need (over and above the planning pipeline). These estimates are based on a range of key assumptions regarding:

• The sales density of new floorspace • The rate that sales densities increase (productivity growth)

1.23 We find that the need for new floorspace is very sensitive to assumptions made about retail space productivity growth (i.e. the sustainable rate of increase of sales densities of both existing and new space) and to assumptions about sales densities for new space.

• At one extreme, with productivity only growing at 1.5 per cent per annum and new space having a variable sales density related to the size and turnover of individual centres, there is an estimated gross total requirement within Greater London of an additional 1 million

square metres gross in 2016. When developments in the planning pipeline are taken into account, the ‘net’ additional requirement is 0.48 million square metres gross in 2016 (See Appendix 11).

• At the other extreme, with 2.8 per cent productivity growth and where new space has a variable sales density related to the size and turnover of individual centres, there is an estimated requirement of only an additional 0.3 million square metres gross in 2016. When developments in the planning pipeline are taken into account, the ‘net’ additional requirement is 0.095 million square metres gross in 2016.

1.24 An assumption of productivity growth of 1.5 per cent per annum is commonly used in retail planning studies. However, we consider that this figure is based on out-of-date information and that more recent data indicates underlying productivity growth of 2.2 per cent per annum since the mid-eighties. We have also run scenarios on a 2.8 per cent productivity assumption as a higher case.

• With a variable sales density of new space and productivity growth of 2.2 per cent per annum, this produces an estimated need for some new space in every London borough and a gross total requirement of 2.9 million square metres in 2031 (including major projects that are already in the pipeline) or a ‘net’ additional requirement of 2.2 million square metres over and above major developments in the planning pipeline. With a productivity growth of 2.8 per cent per annum the gross total requirement including major projects in the pipeline decreases to 1.8 million square metres (See Table 4) or a ‘net’ additional requirement of 1.3 million square metres over and above major developments in the planning pipeline.

• Of the gross total requirement, over a third is in North London, a quarter is in the Central Activities Zone (CAZ) and the rest is approximately equally split between the remaining sub regions (see Figure 3).

• These space requirements (‘gross total’ and ‘net’ additional) all refer to gross floorspace; it should be noted that some studies refer to retail space in net terms (that is, sales area only); typically a conversion ratio of about 1.25:1 gross to net floorspace applies.

Table 4: Gross total timeline comparison goods floorspace requirements by sub-region, 2011-2031

Space required Assumptions: (million square metres)

North South South Year Productivity growth, % North East East West West London CAZ 2011 1.5 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.48 0.10 2011 2.2 0.08 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.27 0.05 2011 2.8 0.02 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.02 2016 1.5 0.33 0.21 0.14 0.19 0.19 1.08 0.22 2016 2.2 0.18 0.14 0.08 0.11 0.12 0.63 0.12 2016 2.8 0.06 0.07 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.27 0.04 2021 1.5 0.70 0.39 0.26 0.38 0.36 2.09 0.46 2021 2.2 0.44 0.26 0.17 0.23 0.23 1.33 0.29 2021 2.8 0.24 0.15 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.74 0.16 2026 1.5 1.10 0.47 0.29 0.47 0.54 2.87 0.74 2026 2.2 0.71 0.40 0.27 0.36 0.34 2.08 0.48 2026 2.8 0.41 0.25 0.16 0.20 0.20 1.22 0.29 2031 1.5 1.64 0.76 0.48 0.75 0.80 4.43 1.10 2031 2.2 1.07 0.58 0.33 0.44 0.52 2.94 0.72 2031 2.8 0.66 0.37 0.25 0.22 0.31 1.82 0.45

Figure 3: Gross total timeline comparison goods floorspace requirements by sub-region using 2.2% productivity growth, 2031 (Million square metres)

Shopper movements across the Greater London boundary 1.25 This project is linked to a wider assessment of retail need and provision across the whole of South East England and part of the East. In calculating London’s comparison goods floorspace needs and assessing the capacity of proposed development1.07 to accommodate them, Experian has taken into account expenditure flows in both directions0.58 across the London boundary. 0.52 1.26 Diversion from Greater London to the South East is a major sales driver for centres such as Bluewater and Lakeside and, to a lesser degree, town centres such as Watford. Lakeside (Thurrock) and Bluewater (Dartford) are the retail destinations most dependent0.33 on London residents, where their level of attractiveness and lack of competing out- of-town offer within the M250.44 create a high level of leakage.

2 INTRODUCTION

2.1 The GLA appointed Experian to develop a comprehensive picture of current and future comparison goods1 floorspace needs throughout London for 5 year increments to 2031. This has involved building upon existing and forecast expenditure datasets across all boroughs of London and identifying centres where the need for floorspace is greatest. The project is both current and forward-looking, factoring in major retail pipeline developments in and around the capital to 2031. In addition, the study has assessed the scale and nature of consumer expenditure across London (total and average per capita) for comparison goods, convenience goods, and other expenditure including leisure over the period 2006 to 2031.

1 Comparison goods comprise clothing, footwear, household appliances (electric or gas), carpets, furniture, computers, books, music/videos, toys, DIY equipment, audio-visual equipment, sports equipment and leisure goods. Convenience goods comprise food, drink, tobacco, household goods and newspapers/magazines.

3 BACKGROUND

3.1 The importance of informing preparation of LDDs with robust assessments of retail need and development capacity is set out in PPSs 6 (para 2.13 and 2.16), 11 and 12 (para 2.10) and the London Plan (consolidated with alterations since 2004) Policies 2A.8 and 3D.2. It has been underscored by recent government statements on policy for town centres (including the proposed changes to PPS6 published for consultation) and was a major concern of Government Office for London (GOL) and others at the Examination in Public (EIP) into the draft Further Alterations to the London Plan (FALP). The Government’s recent Planning White Paper ‘Planning for a Sustainable Future’ highlighted the continued emphasis on the ‘town centres first’ policy (paras 7.50-7.56) It is also a key concern of the LDA in addressing its wider regeneration agenda.

3.2 In preparing the 2004 London Plan, the GLA sought to address these requirements by commissioning a set of Borough level forecasts across the spectrum of consumer expenditure for individual years 2001 – 2016.

3.3 The GLA also commissioned Experian to undertake two comprehensive studies into forecast demand for Comparison and Convenience Goods floorspace need 2001-2016. The research refined and updated the initial consumer expenditure estimates and provided key inputs to the Town Centre Health Checks (2006 Analysis), Sub-Regional Development Frameworks and the London Plan. This informed the EIP and GLA representatives and acknowledged that a further round would be undertaken to review town centre capacity, vitality and viability through a new round of ‘health-checks’. This project fulfils part of that commitment and updates the earlier study and extends the timeframe in five year periods to 2026 to accord with the London Plan, and beyond to 2031 to provide evidence for future reviews of the Plan. It will also inform proposed SPG on town centres, retail and leisure.

3.4 The outputs from this study will be key component of data used to inform the future of London’s town centre network. Set against town centre development capacity estimates derived from GLA/borough health- checks the results of this study will provide a broad statistical overview for future reviews of the London Plan, the SPG and LDDs to show how far the town centre network might absorb projected growth in comparison goods expenditure.

Key objectives 3.5 The study will assess the scale and nature of consumer expenditure in London for comparison goods, convenience goods, and other expenditure including leisure over the period 2006 to 2031. It will focus on requirements for comparison goods floorspace need in individual town centres, as required by PPS6.

3.6 The study will complement other research which has been undertaken into other town centre uses such as hotels and offices. It will inform Supplementary Planning Guidance (SPG) on ‘Town Centres, Retail and Leisure’, the Central Activities Zone SPG, the Outer London SPG, Strategic Town Centre Health Checks, future updates and reviews of the London Plan and other policy documents.

3.7 The study should be framed within the wider policy context of PPS6, as reflected in the London Plan, which recognise town centres as a key spatial priority for the Plan.

4 PROJECT SCOPE

4.1 The project has two main outputs:

Stage 1 – Consumer Expenditure Forecasts

4.2 This comprised producing estimates of consumer expenditure across London (total and average per capita) for comparison goods, convenience goods, and other expenditure including leisure. Expenditure estimates were produced for five year periods between 2006-2031 and were broken down by the COICOPS categories. All expenditure estimates were provided at the London, sub-regional, inner/outer London2, the Central Activities Zone (CAZ) and borough level 4.3 The distribution of expenditure on comparison goods, convenience goods, and other goods and services in London incorporated a range of factors, including population growth forecasts (provided by the GLA), expenditure flows across the London boundary (ROSE), expenditure by tourists and commuters in London, the impact of special forms of trading such as e-tailing and of comparisons goods sales in supermarkets.

Stage 2a – Comparison Goods Floorspace Need (Baseline)

4.4 This comprised building an update of the GLA’s borough-level comparison goods forecasts in 20043 into floorspace need estimates and distributing this growth among existing centres according to their current attractiveness. It provides a ‘base’ or ‘do nothing’ scenario 2006- 2031 showing comparison goods floorspace need associated with approximately 400+ existing centres as they are at present. These centres are the 200 International, Metropolitan, Major and District centres identified in the London Plan and additionally selected Neighbourhood and More Local centres, out-of-centre retail locations within London and centres which lie outside London but absorb London

2 Outer London comprises the following boroughs: Barnet, Barking & Dagenham, Bexley, Bromley, Brent, Croydon, Ealing, Enfield, Haringey, Havering, Harrow, Hillingdon, Hounslow, Kingston, Merton, Redbridge, Richmond, Sutton, Waltham Forest. Inner London comprises those boroughs not listed above and includes the Central Activities Zone.

3 Experian (2004), Comparison Goods Floorspace Need In London, 2001-2016, GLA, September 2004

residents’ expenditure. The study also incorporates the main retail frontages within the Central Activities Zone (CAZ).

4.5 It is a broad, strategic, region wide assessment of the floorspace need associated with these centres, providing the context and coordination framework for more local and precise studies to be undertaken in line with PPS 6 for individual boroughs and development proposals. It will enable boroughs and the GLA to consider systematically the possible future roles of centres in meeting need relative to those currently identified in the London town centre network. It will inform revisions to the town centre network in the light of the results of the town centres health checks and in the broader context of UDPs/LDD.

Stage 2b – Comparison Goods Floorspace Need (Timeline) 4.6 This consists of a ‘future proposals’ scenario following the same basic methodology but showing the impact on the Base scenario (trade diversion to/from existing centres) of all significant retail proposals across London. It highlights the potential impact of the known completions and proposals for major retail developments including Elephant & Castle, Brent Cross, White City and Stratford. The general accuracy of the information on the scale, nature and planning status of these proposals was confirmed by the relevant boroughs before incorporation in the model. Where only the scale of the proposal is known, a view has been taken by Experian as to the nature/composition of the development in the light of broadly comparable formats elsewhere. In neither circumstance should it be taken to imply that either the boroughs or the GLA would necessarily support these proposals.

4.7 Output has been mapped and presented in tabular form to show the overall revised distribution and differences/diversions from the base scenario. This exercise should be seen as complementary to individual impact assessments already being undertaken on behalf of the applicants for some of these proposals. It differs from them in being a public sector-funded and public sector-led London wide study and concerned with the cumulative impact of all the proposals. It provides a transparent basis for comparison and calibration with other impact assessments in line with good planning practice.

5 STAGE 1

Consumers’ expenditure estimates and forecasts: introduction 5.1 This section presents the estimates and forecasts of consumer spending by London residents, by commuters from outside of London who work in central London and by tourists visiting London. The aim is to get a view of spending that goes through retail outlets within London. This is made up as follows:

Equation 1

RSCPLondon = DSCPLondon,Londoners + DSCPLondonRUK + SCP ,OTLondon + SCPLondon,RUK + SCPLondon,Com

where RSCP is retail sales of comparison goods DSCP is day-to-day spend on comparison goods excluding spending made on overseas or domestic tourism (involving a stay of a least one night) visits. SCP is spend on comparison goods by tourists or commuters from outside of London The subscripts refer to the source of the spending (Londoners, rest of UK, overseas tourists, UK tourists and commuters from outside of London) and where the spending takes place (London).

5.2 We can also describe day-to-day spend on comparison goods by Londoners as:

Equation 2

DSCPLondon,Londoners = TSCPUK ,Londoners − DSCPRUK ,Londoners − SCPSFT ,Londoners − SCPRUK ,LondonerTourists

where: TSCP is total spend on comparison goods by Londoners and the suffixes SFT refer to spending on special forms of trading (e.g. mail order, internet, market stalls) and London Tourists to the spending of Londoners on tourist visits (to the rest of the UK).

5.3 Finally, total household (consumer) spending by Londoners can be described as:

Equation 3

CELondoners = TSCPUK ,Londoners + TSCVUK ,Londoners + TSOTHERUK ,Londoners + TS ABR,Londoners where: CE is total household (consumer) spending TSCV total spend on convenience goods by Londoners TSOTHER other spending in the UK by Londoners TS total spending Where the suffix ABR refers to spending made abroad.

5.4 Equations 1-3 show that in order to derive retail sales of comparison goods in London we need to be able to split total household spending by Londoners down into its component parts. This enables us to make allowances for leakages of that spending in the form of day-to-day spending that takes place outside of London, (domestic and international) tourist spending by Londoners and spending on special forms of trading and to add in allowance for spending in London by tourists and by commuters from outside of London. Day-to-day spending by Londoners (DSCPRUK, Londoners) is derived from our shopper flow surveys and is dealt with in Chapter 6. The derivation of the other variables is described below.

Spending by London residents 5.5 The estimates of spending by London residents fall into two parts: estimates of spending by all Londoners and estimates for spending by residents of the different parts of London (boroughs and postcode sectors4).

London-level estimates and forecasts 5.6 The London-level estimates are based on data on household spending from National Accounts, ONS Consumer Trends, the GLA’s demographic projections and forecasts for total household spending taken from London’s Economic Outlook: Autumn 2007 produced by GLA Economics.

4 The breakdown to post code sectors is required to feed our gravity model, which is built up from the post code sector level.

Table 5: Estimated and forecast household spending by London residents (£m, 2003 prices) Convenience Comparison Other goods & Total goods goods services spending* 2001 10,947 16,629 53,897 81,473 2006 11,844 23,213 53,866 88,922 2011 12,928 28,772 58,469 100,169 2016 13,962 35,455 65,135 114,551 2021 14,970 43,796 69,883 128,650 2026 16,008 53,953 73,534 143,495 2031 17,325 67,270 75,984 160,579 Annual average growth rates: 2001-2006 1.6 6.9 0.0 1.8 2006-2016 1.7 4.3 1.9 2.6 2006-2026 1.5 4.3 1.6 2.4 2006-2031 1.5 4.3 1.4 2.4 * Excluding spending abroad and imputed rent.

Table 6: Estimated and forecast household spending per head by London residents, (£, 2003 prices) Convenience Comparison Other goods & Total goods goods services spending* 2001 1,492 2,266 7,346 11,105 2006 1,587 3,111 7,219 11,918 2011 1,668 3,713 7,545 12,926 2016 1,753 4,453 8,180 14,386 2021 1,843 5,391 8,602 15,836 2026 1,937 6,528 8,897 17,361 2031 2,036 7,904 8,928 18,867 Annual average growth rates: 2001-2006 1.2 6.5 -0.3 1.4 2006-2016 1.0 3.6 1.3 1.9 2006-2026 1.0 3.8 1.1 1.9 2006-2031 1.0 3.8 0.9 1.9 * Excluding spending abroad and imputed rent.

Comparison with previous estimates and forecasts 5.7 The estimates for 2006 in Table 5 differ marginally from an earlier set of estimates and projections commissioned by the GLA from Experian.5 In particular, the new estimates of comparison spend are considerably lower than our projections for comparison spend in 2006 made in the previous study, while the other spend are considerably higher than in our earlier projections.

5.8 Table 7 compares the two sets of estimates and forecasts.

Table 7: A comparison of the Experian and previous Experian estimates Spending levels in 2006 (£m) Convenience Comparison Other Total Experian – Old 11,941 25,469 51,523 88,933 Experian – New 11,844 23,213 53,866 88,922 % difference -0.8 -8.9 4.5 0 Average annual growth rates (constant prices) 2006-2016 Experian – Old 2.0 4.8 1.8 2.7 Experian – New 1.7 4.3 1.9 2.6 Difference -0.3 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1

5.9 Some of the discrepancy is due to the different prices basis used in the two studies. The latest estimates are on a 2003 price base, while the previous study used a 2001 price base. The new estimates also have the advantage of using more up-to-date information from Regional accounts for total spending.

5.10 The projected aggregate growth rates are lower than in the previous study. This reflects the view amongst economists that the growth in spending will slow over the foreseeable future. Household savings rates are already very low and household indebtedness is at an all-time high and is regarded as unsustainable in the long term.

5.11 Projected disaggregated growth rates have also been revised down. Comparison spend per head in London is based on the difference

5 Experian (2004), Comparison Goods Floorspace Need in London, 2001-2016, GLA, September 2004.

between the ultra long-term trends in UK spending per head on comparison goods and total household expenditure.

5.12 Trends in UK spending per head volume growth (2003 price), show that UK comparison spend per head outstrips UK total spend per head by 2.2 per cent per year over the period 1965-2006. This ‘difference’ is applied to London’s projected total spend per head growth to derive comparison spend per head in London.

5.13 The projections for the latter five year periods between 2006 and 2031 must be treated with a degree of caution due to the inherent uncertainties of the economy in the longer term. Sensitivity testing has been conducted to ensure that the most accurate expenditure forecasts have been included within this study. The forecasts presented in this paper are from Experian Business Strategies’ model of disaggregated consumer spending. This uses our UK macroeconomic forecast variables (chiefly consumer spending, incomes and inflation) as an input and projects forward using assumptions about income and price elasticities. The shares of the individual components of consumer spending, not just the levels, will be sensitive to the UK outlook.

Small area estimates 5.14 One of the requirements of this study is to produce estimates and projections of spending at a borough and sub-region level as well as at the London level. In addition, estimates and forecasts at the post code sector level are needed to feed into our gravity model of spend by destination (that is, by town/ retail centre) rather than residence.

5.15 There are no official estimates of consumer spending below the London level. We have adapted a technique that looks at the socio- demographic-economic make-up of small areas and uses that to infer local spending levels. The socio-demographic-economic used is Mosaic. Mosaic segments each household in the country into one of 62 types based on a variety of data sources including the 2001 Census. Spending estimates are then derived by coding the ONS’ Expenditure and Food Survey by Mosaic type. Mosaic type has been found to be a good discriminator between spending patterns and, hence, the Mosaic make- up of an area (post code sectors in this case) can be used to infer local spending levels. The estimates are then constrained to the London-level estimates described above.

5.16 Figure 4 shows how comparison spend levels vary between Mosaic groups (Mosaic groups are a 10-way aggregation of Mosaic types and are used here for each of exposition), while Map 1 shows what this implies for average household weekly spend on comparison goods by London borough.

Figure 4: Comparison spend by Mosaic Group

Comparison Spend by Mosaic Group (Symbols of Success = 100) 020406080100

Symbol of success Rural isolation Happy Families Suburban comfort Urban intelligence

Ties of community Grey perspectives Blue collar enterprise Municipal dependency Welfare borderline Twilight subsistence

5.17 Map 1 shows that the boroughs with the highest-spending households tend to be the outer London boroughs on the western and southern edges, with Barnet having the highest spenders of all of the boroughs. At the other extreme, central/eastern boroughs tend to have the lowest spend per household.

5.18 Figure 5 compares the Mosaic composition of three of the highest- spending boroughs, Barnet, Bromley and Richmond, with that of three of the lowest-spending, Hackney, Newham and Tower Hamlets (for clarity of exposition, Figure 5 concentrates on seven out of the 10 groups).

Map 1: Average weekly household spend on comparison goods in London (2006)

5.19 The Mosaic composition of the high-spending boroughs differs markedly from that of the low spenders. In particular, the high-spending boroughs have high proportions of the Symbols of Success group and low proportions of Welfare Borderline, while the reverse is true of the low- spending boroughs. Although Barking & Dagenham does not have as big a proportion of Welfare Borderline households as Newham and Tower Hamlets, it contains a high proportion of relatively low-spending Blue Collar Enterprise households. Note also that Tower Hamlets contains a high proportion of the relatively affluent Urban Intelligence group, but its high shares of Welfare Borderline households more than outweigh this. This even mixture of high-spend and low-spend households is characteristic of a number of inner London boroughs.

Figure 5: Dominant Mosaic UK groups by spend on comparison goods

100%

90%

80%

70%

A Symbols of Success 60% B Happy Families C Suburban Comfort 50% D Ties of Community E Urban Intelligence F Welfare Borderline 40% Other

30%

20%

10%

0% Richmond upon Bromley Barnet Tower Hamlets Barking & Newham Thames Dagenham High Spend on Comparison Goods Greater London Low Spend on Comparison Goods

Small area forecasts 5.20 The small area estimates are projected into the future using three sets of assumptions:

• Relative household spend by Mosaic type remains constant in the future. • Relative household size by post code sector remains constant in the future. • Population, by ward, are taken from GLA 2006 Round Projections6, and increased in line with revised borough level population projections also produced by the GLA during 2007.7

6 GLA, RLP Low, 30th May 2007, Caroline Hall 7 2007 Round of Demographic Projections – PLP Low, Caroline Hall

5.21 This means that the small area (post code sector) projections are driven by the GLA’s ward-level projections of population and forecast spend per head at the London level.

5.22 Map 2 shows how the variation in growth rates by small area is markedly different across Greater London. For instance, residential expenditure growth is predicted to be more pronounced within the North East sub- region where large-scale housing developments are planned over the next decade.

Spend by UK residents from outside of London 5.23 Non-Londoners as well as Londoners do day-to-day shopping in London centres so we also need small area estimates and projections of spending for non-London post code sectors. These have been put together in exactly the same way as the London estimates except that we have used ONS population projections (with post code sector shares held constant at their 2006 levels) and there is no London constraint on the estimates/projections. Table 8 summarises the estimates and projections of comparison goods spend and compares it with spending by Londoners.

Table 8: Total spending on comparison goods by residents of the Greater South East Spending in Share of Greater Projected annual 2006 (£m) South East in average growth 2006 (%) rates 2006-2031 (2003 prices, %) London 23213 35.0 4.3 South East 25630 38.7 4.6 East of England 17450 26.3 4.7 Greater South 66294 100.0 4.5 East

Map 2: Proportional Growth Of Household Comparison Goods Expenditure Within London, 2006-2031

No Change 0 - 100

100 - 150 150 - 200 200 - 250 250 or more

Spend by tourists

Tourism spend in London 5.24 Data on tourism is available from two separate sources, the International Passenger Survey (IPS) for trips and spending by visitors from overseas and the UK Tourism Survey (UKTS) for trips and spending by UK visitors. Both give estimates of total spend by tourists, but the UKTS has the added advantage of providing a breakdown of the total. We have defined domestic tourist spend on comparison goods as being equal to 90 per cent of spending on clothes and on other shopping (with domestic tourist spend on convenience goods accounting for the other 10 per cent). The UKTS has no information on the breakdown of shopping other than that between clothes shopping and the rest, so the 90 per cent figure is a working assumption.

5.25 The IPS only provides information on total spend. We have assumed that the proportion of this spent on retail goods is the same as for domestic tourists (average of 2000-2002), which is 21 per cent. We have again assumed a 90:10 split between comparison and convenience goods.

5.26 The forecasts have been produced by combining a forecast of visitor nights with forecasts of spend per night stayed. In line with GLA planning assumptions, the long-run forecasts for the number of visitor nights are taken from the 2006 study for the GLA by Grant Thorton and The Leisure & Tourism Organisation.8

5.27 Spending by RoSE residents on trips to London involving overnight stays is counted as domestic tourist spend. This, and domestic tourist spend in other regions in the UK, is deducted from total comparison goods spend before day-to-day spending is allocated to centres in London, RoSE. (See 5.32.)

5.28 We have taken a similar approach to forecasting overseas visitor nights. Albeit with one refinement, the 2005 and 2006 UKTS data are not used because of an apparent discontinuity in the spending series.

8 GLA (2006), Hotel Demand Study, June 2006.

Figure 6: Tourist nights in London and forecast to 2017

Tourist Nights in London 180 170 160 150 140

millions 130 120 110 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Experian Forecast

5.29 Average spend per visitor night is assumed to increase in line with UK residents’ spend per person over the forecast period.

Table 9: Visits and spend by tourists in London* Total spend on comparison Visitor nights, millions goods (2003 prices £m) Overseas Domestic Total Overseas Domestic Total 2001 76 40 116 1,046 500 1,546 2006 101 25 126 1572 548 2120 2011 118 28 146 2081 724 2805 2016 138 31 169 2757 935 3692 2031 178 43 222 5141 1801 6942 Average annual Percentage change. 2001-06 5.8 -9.2 1.6 8.5 1.9 6.5 2006-31 2.3 2.3 2.3 4.9 4.9 4.9 * Staying at least one night. Source: International Passenger Survey, Experian Projections, GLA.

Out-of-region tourism spend 5.30 As well as taking account of the demand created by tourist spending in London retail outlets, we need to make an allowance for the spending by the residents of London, and other parts of the UK, on tourist trips (involving a stay of at least one night) within the UK. (Spending abroad has already been deducted). Spending made on holiday is not available to be spent as part of day-to-day spending in London. A deduction needs to be made from spending by non-London residents as well as London residents. This is because the spending by the residents of, for example, Cambridge, on tourist trips to London will have already been picked up in our allowance for tourist spend in London and should not, therefore, be included in our shopper flow allocations. Equally, spending made on trips by Cambridge residents to other regions is not available for day-to-day shopping.

5.31 In principle, it is possible to obtain residence-based domestic tourist spending from the UKTS. In practice, we have been unable to find a source within Visit Britain (which owns the UKTS) who is able to provide this. Consequently, we have had to rely on estimates inferred from place-of-spending estimates.

5.32 In both 2001 and 2002, domestic tourist spending on comparison goods accounted for 2.7 per cent of total UK spending on comparison goods.9 However, as London is one of the UK’s major domestic tourist destinations10 and as Londoners are less likely to undertake tourist trips to London involving overnight stays, we have assumed that the share of Londoners’ comparison goods spend that takes place on domestic tourist trips is rather less than the UK average – at 2.0 per cent.11 This implies that the equivalent figure for the rest of the UK is 2.8 per cent.

5.33 The 2.0 per cent figure for Londoners, and 2.8 per cent for residents of the rest of the UK, is deducted from estimated comparison goods spend,

9 Based on our estimates of UK comparison goods spend, after deducting an allowance for special forms of trading, and UKTS data on spend on shopping and assuming that 90 per cent of shopping spend is on comparison goods and 10 per cent on convenience. 10 In 2002, domestic tourist spend on shopping in London was 16.3 per cent of the UK total whereas London accounted for 12.4 per cent of the UK’s population and 14.3 per cent of UK comparison goods spend. 11 Londoners are also more likely to spend money on overseas tourist trips and this may also depress the share of comparison spend going on domestic trips relative to the UK average.

after allowing for spending on special forms of trading to give available day-to-day spend by residents.

Commuter spend 5.34 We do not believe that our shopper flow surveys adequately pick up the amount spent near their place of work by residents of the rest of the south east who commute into central London. In the absence of any official estimates to inform us of exactly how much is spent near the workplace, we have followed other studies12 in assuming that 10 per cent of spending by rest of the south east commuters (to central London) takes place near their place of work. This amount is deducted from spending before it is allocated using the gravity model and allocated separately to town centres in central London (see Chapter 6).

5.35 Table 10 shows the estimated and forecast relative importance of resident, rest of south east (RoSE) and tourist spend to total comparison goods spending in London. We estimate that London residents currently contribute approximately 90 per cent of total spending compared with residents of the rest of the south east spending less than ten per cent of the total. The relative importance of both London and rest of the south east residents is forecast to decline as the growth of tourist spend outstrips them both.

Table 10: Composition of comparison goods spending in London, £m London % Total RoSE % Total Tourist % Total Total Residents Residents spend 2006 20,072 81.9 2,330 9.5 2,120 8.6 24,522 2016 28,725 82.7 3,209 9.2 2,805 8.1 34,739 2026 43,731 81.8 6,009 11.2 3,692 6.9 53,432 2031 54,537 80.6 6,153 9.1 6,942 10.3 67,632 Average Growth 4.1% 4.0% 4.9% 4.1% rate 2006-31

12 CACI (2003), Consumer Expenditure Projections for Greater London 2001-2016, GLA, February.

Special forms of trading 5.36 Some day-to-day spending does not go through retail outlets but instead goes through a miscellany of other channels. These include spending on market stalls, door-to-door salesmen, mail order and internet shopping. This needs to be deducted from total spending in order to get a more accurate view of retail demand.

5.37 The current scale and scope for the expansion of the selling of retail goods over the internet (e-tailing) has increasingly become an issue in retail planning. The ONS estimates of Non-Store retail sales only include the sales by wholly internet-based businesses and exclude sales over the internet of stores with a conventional retail presence. This is inadequate for judging either the scale or the growth of e-tailing.

5.38 Estimates based on the new E-commerce Survey of Business from ONS give a market share for e-tailing of 4.7 per cent in 2006. The market share of the broad definition of Non-Store Retail Sales (which includes, amongst other things, mail order and market stalls), is estimated to have been 6.9 per cent in 2006.

5.39 What is clear is that we appear to be in the take-off phase in the spread of e-tailing in the UK. This means that e-tailing's market share is following the classic S-curve profile of a slow start, rapid take-off and an eventual plateau. The problem with the S-curve as a model for projecting future market share is that we have no real way of knowing where exactly we are on the curve (e.g., Is there more rapid growth to come or are we getting close the levelling off of e-tailing's share?).

5.40 Growth (in both sales and market share) have accelerated sharply over the last 2-3 years as the impact of the spread of internet technology impacts and that this growth rate may now start to slow. There are other considerations that should also be taken into account in addition to the speed of internet access. For instance, issues with the delivery and receipt of goods are probably a significant reason - if not a more significant reason - for many people's resistance to internet shopping, as access speeds are.

5.41 Our current projections are based on work done by Forrester Research on behalf of Interactive Media Research Group (IMRG). We have combined the growth rates from Forrester Research with our base year, estimate of Non-store retail sales. This is projected to increase from 6.9 per cent in 2006 to 12 per cent by 2016.

5.42 The ONS E-commerce Survey of Business gives no breakdown below retail, wholesale and car repair. However, we do have some data based on the results of major e-tailers, for instance, Tesco.com’s £718 million sales in the year ending February 2005. (The majority of these sales are convenience goods and Tesco are believed to be the UK’s biggest convenience e-tailer by a significant margin). In addition, there is an estimate from the Institute of Grocery Distribution that puts e-tailing’s share of total convenience spend at “no more than 0.8 per cent”13. The estimates assume that convenience goods’ e-tail sales in 2004 were £1.5 billion – in other words, Tesco.com has an approximate 50 per cent share of the market. This assumption implies that e-tailing’s share of total spending on convenience goods in 2004 was 1.6 per cent and the equivalent figure for comparison goods 3.1 per cent, compared to a figure of 2.6 per cent for all retail.

5.43 Projections by convenience/comparison have been produced in two stages. Stage 1 produced a first cut projection by splicing on the forecast growth rates for all convenience and comparison spend. Stage 2 constrains these estimates to the projected total for all retail goods derived above. The results are shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7: Estimated and projected market share of non-store retail sales - Special Forms of Trading (SFT)

16 14

2 0

1 3 5 6 9 1 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 008 013 01 20 2002 20 2004 20 20 2007 2 20 2010 20 20 2 2 2015 2016 Convenience Comparison

13 Quoted in Robinson, H., Rettie, R., Dall ’Olmo Riley, F., Rolls-Willson G., (2005), Drivers and barriers to purchasing groceries online in the UK, EMAC 2005, Milan.

Small Area estimates of non-store retail sales (SFT)

5.44 There are no official estimates of non-store retail sales below the UK level. We have used Mosaic to infer local spending on SFT. Expenditure on comparison goods via SFT are derived by coding a Target Group Index (TGI) survey on the purchases of comparison and convenience goods over the Internet all split by Mosaic type. The estimates are then constrained to the London-level estimates described above.

5.45 Figure 8 shows how comparison spend levels via the internet vary between Mosaic types and Figure 9 shows what that implies for non- retail store comparison goods spend by London Borough.

Figure 8: Percentage of household comparison goods spend via SFT by Mosaic type (2006)

22 Upscale New Owners 20 18 High Technologists Dinky Developments 16 14 Old People in Flats 12 Low Income Elderly 10 8 6 4 2 0 % 12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455565758596061

5.46 Consumers that are more likely to use special forms of trading for their comparison goods shopping requirements typically fall within Mosaic types that are both PC literate and relatively time poor.

Figure 9: Percentage of household comparison goods spend via SFT by Borough (2006)

City of London Kensington & Chelsea Richmond upon Thames Kingston upon Thames Westminster Wandsworth Merton Barnet Camden Hammersmith & Fulham Bromley Sutton Croydon Haringey Ealing Hillingdon Enfield Greenwich Harrow Lambeth Bexley Tower Hamlets Hounslow Newham Havering Lewisham Islington Redbridge Waltham Forest Southwark Brent Hackney Barking & Dagenham % 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0

5.47 The proportion of comparison goods expenditure absorbed by SFT varies considerably between different boroughs. Within the City of London, Kensington & Chelsea and Richmond, special forms of trading accounts for over 10% of comparison goods spend. In contrast, within boroughs such as Barking & Dagenham and Hackney, special forms of trading account for 7.5% of comparison goods spend.

6 STAGE 2A – COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE NEED - BASE SCENARIO

Current (2006) comparison floorspace provision

6.1 The first stage of the project comprised building an update of the GLA’s 2004 borough-level comparison goods expenditure forecasts into floorspace need estimates and distributing this growth among existing centres in line with evidence from shopper surveys. It provides a base scenario (that is, assuming no new developments 2006-2031) showing comparison goods floorspace need associated with approximately 300+ existing centres as they are at present. These centres are the 200 International, Metropolitan, Major and District town centres identified in the London Plan and additionally the main retail frontages within the Central Activities Zone (CAZ), selected Neighbourhood and More Local centres, out-of-centre retail locations and centres which lie outside London but absorb London residents’ expenditure.

GOAD

6.2 The Goad database is the basis of the floorspace provision analysis in this project. Accurately quantifying existing floorspace provision underpins the whole modelling process and allows future assumptions to be made about an individual centre’s attractiveness.

6.3 Experian owns Goad, a unique source of town centre and retail park data. The Goad database comprises floor plans of over 1,200 town centres and 1,200 retail parks across the country, which are updated annually by a team of professional surveyors. These plans are available in either paper or electronic format. Goad's floorspace figures are based on Ordnance Survey gross surface area calculations rather than net trading areas. For this study the categorisation of what constitutes comparison retail has been harmonised with CLG/VOA definition, as used in the State of the Cities Database (SOCD) which was developed from earlier work by CASA on a Town Centre Activity study for the ODPM between 1996 and 2000 (see 6.11). The Goad retail database represents a snapshot of the retail centre at the time of the survey and Experian accepts that centres may have changed in the months since the last annual survey.

6.4 The appendix includes further details of the contents of the Goad database and survey dates for the retail centres covered by the report.

Choice of retail destinations included in the project 6.5 While the project is primarily concerned with the 200 International, Metropolitan, Major and District centres identified in the London Plan, the list has been extended to take account of the flow of comparison goods expenditure to other retail destinations:

• Neighbourhood and More Local centres. • Out-of-centre retail locations. • Centres which lie outside London but absorb London residents’ expenditure. • Central Activities Zone (CAZ Frontages)

6.6 The extended list of 400+, together with a more detailed explanation of the generation of this list, is included within the appendix. Goad covers 90 per cent of the International, Metropolitan, Major and District centres in London, as well as destinations out-of-town, outside London and some neighbourhood centres. Where there is no coverage (the remaining 10 per cent and also a number of Neighbourhood and More Local Centres), substitute data has been assembled based on Experian's database of neighbourhood centres. In some cases manipulation of individual Goad centre boundaries, in conjunction with the GLA, was required to match this as closely as possible to London Plan centres: for example, the West End, Fulham Road and Chelsea. GOAD also covers the Central Activities Zone (CAZ Frontages).

6.7 The neighbourhood database was created by clustering groups of retail outlets based on source data from Experian’s ShopPoint Database. This is the largest single business data source in the country, bringing together data from various sources including Companies House and Thomson Directories. In June 2003 Experian acquired Yell Data, the business-to-business direct marketing arm of Yell. Yell Data currently provides access to more than 1.6 million UK business records for targeted direct marketing and telephone campaigns. The acquisition positions Experian’s ShopPoint Database as the most comprehensive business information source for business-to-business marketing in the UK.

6.8 The appendix identifies the data sources for individual centres and summarises the method used to assemble substitute data. The

appendix also includes GOAD plans of the International, Metropolitan and Major centres.

Health check survey 6.9 Experian has provided summaries of the source retail location floorspace and counts from Stage 1 to contribute to the GLA's health check survey of town centres at borough level, as well as Goad plans for all Major, Metropolitan and International centres. The use of a single dataset to generate all floorspace figures ensures consistency between boroughs in the measures of floorspace used.

6.10 These summaries include outlet counts and floorspace estimates for each centre from the list of 300+ within Greater London, summarised for the following categories:

• Total retail, total service, total leisure. • Comparison, convenience. • Multiples, independents. • Shopping centres. • Department stores. • Banks. • Vacant retail.

6.11 The date of the Goad survey is provided for each centre. The categorisation by Goad of what constitutes comparison retail has been harmonised with the definition used in the CLG State of the Cities Database and the CASA Town Centre Activity study for the ODPM between 1996 and 2000.14 The following groups of outlets are usually excluded within Goad's definition but were included for both this Comparison Goods Floorspace project and the CASA projects:

• Leisure service outlets (bars and restaurants, bookmakers). • Retail service outlets (banks and estate agents). • Vacant retail.

6.12 Furthermore, upper floors (in department stores, shopping centres etc.) have been included by adding 70 per cent of the ground floorspace for each additional floor. This generates a realistic estimate of the total retail

14 Producing Boundaries and Statistics for Town Centres, London Pilot Study – ODPM and Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, UCL, February 2002.

floorspace within a building, in order to exclude offices, storage etc. that are typically found on upper or basement floors. These additional floors are excluded from base Goad data. Extreme examples (largest department stores) have been adjusted to actual amounts where known.

6.13 The following table shows how Goad's original floorspace estimate has been reconciled with the State of the Cities Database (SOCD) estimate.

Table 11: Example – Hounslow (floorspace in m2)

States Of The Cities (SOCD) A1 retail 97,200 floorspace estimate

Goad comparison retail (ground floors) 59,145

Goad comparison retail (upper floors) (70% of 10,041 Dept Stores)

Goad convenience retail 12,790

Goad service retail 4,750

Goad vacant floorspace 11,590

Total adjusted Goad A1 floorspace 98,316

Determining retail catchment areas – Experian shopper surveys 6.14 Experian runs Britain's largest survey of shopping patterns. In total the survey has had 4.8 million responses to date from across the UK. The product covers 2,500 town centres, retail parks and shopping malls across Britain.

6.15 It canvasses consumers on their main in-town and out-of-town shopping destinations in lifestyle surveys through magazine inserts, target mail and door drops. The responses are weighted in order to reflect the demographics of each postal area unit of geography (for example, SE, TW). No further element of modelling is incorporated in the creation of shopper flows and catchment areas. The product has been validated by comparing responses with observed customer shopping patterns provided by retailers with whom Experian has a close collaborative relationship.

6.16 The survey has revealed distinct trading patterns – especially out of town and in town centres where public transport is a significant determinant of the catchment – that are not revealed when notional drivetime catchments are used.

6.17 The questions asked are:

• ‘Where do you shop most often for non-food goods like clothes, shoes, jewellery? (Please write in name of town or shopping centre/area)’ • ‘Which retail park do you visit most often?’

6.18 The survey response as of January 2008 stood at 4.8 million respondents in total, including 1.2 million since 2006.

Modelling future turnover estimates 6.19 Catchment areas based on surveys are useful but static. Stage 2B requires a dynamic method of modelling future changes. In order to ensure consistency between results from the two Stages, a model capable of running the 'what if' scenarios of Stage 2B was created at this earlier Stage. This eliminated the possibility of anomalous results in Stage 2B caused by the cumulative differences between modelled and actual data.

Attractiveness scores 6.20 In addition to monitoring retailer presence and relative floorspace, the Goad database enables a rating of the underlying quality of retail floorspace in a centre – that is, the strength of the centre as a retail destination. This forms the basis of Experian’s Retail Centre Ranking, produced annually in collaboration with the British Council of Shopping Centres (BCSC). It assesses the vitality of retail centres by combining a number of factors taken from the Experian Goad retail database:

• Count of multiple retailer outlets (multiple retailers are defined as having a store network of nine or more outlets). • Count of comparison retailer outlets (comparison retailers are defined by Goad’s usage classification). • Floorspace of multiple retailer outlets. • Floorspace of vacant outlets. • Number of service and miscellaneous outlets (such as churches, offices etc.).

• Floorspace of retail outlets (retail as opposed to non-retail and retail service). • Count of key retail attractors (selected by Experian to represent popular and successful retail fascia).

6.21 These are combined to generate a ‘vitality score’ for each centre, which is then ranked. The ranking of each centre is a relative measure – it is a function of its own and other centres’ vitality scores. The factors and the weightings were selected using experience of building both sales performance models for retailers and planning models for shopping centre owners, developers and investors.

6.22 The seven variables are weighted appropriately to derive an overall vitality score for each centre, upon which they are ranked. Unfavourable variables (floorspace of vacant outlets and number of service and miscellaneous outlets) carry negative weightings as these both reduce the retail offer, even though the latter may on other assessments be attractive and add vitality.

6.23 There is a strong relationship between this level of attractiveness and the extent (depth and breadth) of the centre’s retail catchment area. The attractiveness scores are used to generate a first pass of the model which is then calibrated according to the real-life behaviour of shoppers, based on actual customer flows from Experian's shopper surveys. Experian accepts that the ranking does not include factors such as provision of car parking, pedestrianisation or catchment areas, and that there are other valid methods of assessing the vitality of retail centres. While the model is calibrated to match actual flows, the limitation in excluding factors such as car parking is that if they change in a specific centre, the model will not be able to assess resultant changes to this centre's catchments and expenditure flows.

Gravity modelling - general 6.24 Attractiveness scores are used to model consumers’ actual shopping patterns. Expenditure from each area can be apportioned out to retail centres using the scores, in a process known as a gravity model. The assumption is that an individual's expected level of expenditure at a given centre is proportional to the attractiveness of that centre and inversely proportional to a measure of distance to that centre, cf. weight and distance in the laws of gravity.

6.25 The aim is to produce a tool that mimics the shopping patterns seen from real customer flow data. Sources of such data include retailer loyalty cards, credit cards or, in this case, Experian's 4.8 million shopper surveys. This process of refining the model to assumed shopping patterns, known as model calibration, consists of continually adjusting factors that determine how the apportionment works. These factors include:

• People's likelihood to travel relative to their travel time to the retail centres (decay). • People's likelihood to travel relative to different centres' attractiveness scores. • People's likelihood to travel relative to different types of centre (in- town, out-of-town retail parks, out-of-town shopping malls, neighbourhood centres). • Unique behaviour for the most dominant centres (International and Metropolitan) that defy attempts to model catchments using attractiveness scores generated in the same way as smaller centres

6.26 For example, two retail destinations may generate a similar level of comparison expenditure. However, the size of their catchment areas and the penetration of individuals' spend varies significantly depending on the types of centre.

6.27 Gravity models take account of competing centres in a way not possible with drivetime radii or regression models alone. By apportioning out a fixed level of expenditure, the resulting sales densities can show whether an area is overtopped or under shopped relative to the rest of London.

Equations used to apportion expenditure 6.28 The raw output of a gravity model is a list of shopper flows, showing the distribution of expenditure by centre for individuals in a given area. It does not attempt to estimate the purpose or frequency of individuals' shopping trips.

6.29 By way of illustration, the following chart is an example of expenditure flows from an area near Wimbledon:

Figure 10: Shopper flows in SW20 9

Othe r Wimbledon 26.6% 18.4%

West End Croydon 10.0% 2.0%

Wimbledon Village Kingston 2.3% 8.7% Knightsbridge 2.4% Tooting Wandsw orth 8.2% 2.5% Sutton Morden Putney 5.1% 2.6% 4.7% Clapham Junction 2.6% Merton - Priory RP 4.0%

6.30 This provides an insight into Wimbledon’s strength as a retail centre, coupled with quantifiable analysis of which centres it is competing with. It shows that Wimbledon retains 18 per cent of trade within this postal sector, with significant leakage to the West End (10 per cent) and Kingston (9 per cent). It also highlights the far-reaching effect the major retail centres have, even though they may be some distance away (in this case, Croydon and Knightsbridge).

6.31 The equation used to generate the flows from each geographic brick (for example, postal sector) to each retail centre is:

where: attractiveness and decay are functions of the centre's retail composition and type distance represents travel time from the brick to the retail centre constant for each brick is calculated such that ∑ flow = 1 brick

6.32 By fixing the model factors but adjusting the shopping destination attractiveness scores and/or levels of expenditure, such models produce answers to the 'what if' scenarios as required for Stage 2B of this project.

Gravity modelling – GLA specifics 6.33 A postal sector is the area represented by the initial letters and numbers of a postcode: for example, SW20 9 or KT 2 6. The average population of a postal sector in London is 6,500 – a similar size to a ward. The map below shows an example set of postal sector boundaries around Wimbledon/Kingston.

Figure 11: Postal sector boundaries around Wimbledon/Kingston

6.34 Using the methodology outlined above, expenditure modelled down to postal sector-level has been apportioned out to the 300+ centres within Greater London as well as those key centres outside. The flows have been calibrated according to Experian's 4.8 million customer surveys. The model has been run for each year from 2006 to 2031 based on several variations of future retail provision but using the same set of model factors in each run.

6.35 Factors in the model were initially based on Experian's standard gravity model product for Great Britain. This has been refined since 2004 to reflect and predict changing shopping patterns for comparison goods. The GLA's complete list of 300+ centres within Greater London was merged into this and the model factors (the attractiveness, decay and distance measures) recalibrated using the observed catchments and flows from the latest set of shopper surveys.

6.36 The measurement of travel distance uses drivetime estimates as a basis. However, since the customer flow data from the surveys is multi- modal these drivetimes will effectively be weighted up or down to reflect actual catchment patterns in London. Building upon the methodology of the 2004 study we have incorporated a travel time matrix into the gravity modelling process which not only accounts for road users but also those consumers who typically use London’s public transportation network (rail, tube, DLR etc.).

6.37 Figure 12 provides an example of the travel time matrix around Stratford in East London. It is evident that people who reside to the north of Stratford enjoy a much quicker journey to the centre via public transportation. In contrast, residents to the south of Stratford are more inclined to drive to the centre as public transportation is potentially more restricted.

Figure 12: Travel time matrix around Stratford, comparing public transport provision with traditional drivetimes.

Generating catchments 6.38 A database of shopper flow patterns consists of a list of geographic bricks (in this case, postal sectors) and a likelihood to travel to each of the competing shopping centres from that brick. For a given retail centre, the catchment area is usually represented by selecting those geographic bricks whose population is most likely to shop at that centre. For the purposes of this project a '50 per cent catchment' refers to the area comprising the set of postal sectors whose flows to a given centre are greatest, such that that area represents 50 per cent of the total shoppers at that centre. Catchments are shown for illustrative purposes only – shopper flows come from outside as well as inside catchment areas and a change in relative attractiveness will affect centre spend by altering penetrations both within and outside of catchments.

6.39 The following definitions are used for catchment maps:

• Primary, 50 per cent of total shoppers. • Secondary, 80 per cent of total shoppers. • Tertiary, 90 per cent of total shoppers.

6.40 An example catchment area map for Kingston is depicted in Figure 12 below. The primary catchment area for Kingston extends along the A3 arterial route, whilst Kingston’s secondary catchment area encompasses Epsom and Guildford. More infrequent shoppers are drawn to Kingston from within the tertiary catchment area which extends beyond the M25 orbital motorway.

6.41 For each scenario that is run, catchments for key centres have been produced that show the changing areas from which people travel to shop. These are mapped in a separate appendix (inclusive of catchments for the International, Metropolitan and Major centres).

Figure 13: Kingston’s 2008 Catchment Area (Source: Where Britain Shops) (

Incorporating tourist and commuter spend 6.42 Two additional layers of expenditure, excluded from the base estimates, are added separately to create total estimates in the model:

Tourism 6.43 The estimate of total tourism spend across London has been divided up among the list of centres according to the level of tourist-type activities within each centre, such as hotels, bars and restaurants. Those centres that have a number of tourist attractions nearby are assumed to benefit from incremental tourism sales. In addition, those centres that have a high number of tourist visitors (due to available hotel accommodation) are also assumed to benefit from additional sales of comparison goods. The splits have been adjusted according to commercial knowledge about the level of tourism in specific centres where available.

Commuter spend 6.44 The total estimate of commuter spend in London, removed from the base expenditure estimates, has been divided up among the retail centres within these boroughs. This exercise factors the volume of daytime population against the level of comparison goods shops belonging to the centre and apportions the spend according to the resulting weights. Commuter spend can be applied to any area within Greater London that has a significant daytime population, such as The City, Canary Wharf and Victoria Street.

6.45 Figure 14 breaks down the contribution of residents, commuters and tourists to comparison goods expenditure within Greater London and its constituent boroughs in 2006. Approximately 82% of comparison goods expenditure within London is from resident based spend, 9.5% of the total is derived from commuters and the remaining 8.6% is from tourists.

6.46 Table 12 and Table 13 summarise comparison goods expenditure by borough in 2016 and 2026, broken down by the relative contribution of residents, commuters and tourists.

Figure 14: Contribution of residents, commuters and tourists to comparison goods expenditure by borough (2006)

London Barking and Dagenham Barnet Bexley Brent Bromley Camden City of London Croydon Ealing Enfield Greenwich Hackney Hammersmith and Fulham Haringey Harrow Havering Hillingdon Hounslow Islington Kensington and Chelsea Kingston upon Thames Lambeth Lewisham Merton Newham Redbridge Richmond upon Thames Southwark Sutton Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest Wandsworth Westminster

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

% Residential Spend % Commuter Spend % Tourism Spend

Table 12: 2016 Comparison goods expenditure by borough (£ M)

Borough Residential Spend Commuter Spend Tourist Spend Total Barking and Dagenham £258.3 £1.8 £2.9 £263.0 Barnet £1,443.1 £1.5 £1.5 £1,446.1 Bexley £578.3 £0.1 £2.8 £581.3 Brent £664.0 £0.1 £17.8 £681.9 Bromley £1,025.7 £8.4 £6.1 £1,040.3 Camden £435.2 £158.4 £120.2 £713.8 City of London £137.6 £1,006.8 £0.1 £1,144.5 Croydon £1,662.5 £49.2 £3.6 £1,715.4 Ealing £612.1 £0.1 £8.8 £621.0 Enfield £598.4 £0.1 £2.1 £600.6 Greenwich £690.7 £0.1 £13.7 £704.5 Hackney £240.0 £67.8 £4.4 £312.2 Hammersmith and Fulham £1,788.5 £60.3 £74.1 £1,922.9 Haringey £754.9 £0.1 £3.0 £758.0 Harrow £560.4 £1.3 £3.6 £565.4 Havering £829.5 £9.8 £2.3 £841.7 Hillingdon £890.4 £16.9 £6.2 £913.5 Hounslow £664.8 £2.2 £11.5 £678.5 Islington £406.7 £70.8 £10.9 £488.4 Kensington and Chelsea £791.2 £56.6 £439.9 £1,287.6 Kingston upon Thames £1,023.1 £8.5 £6.3 £1,037.9 Lambeth £298.2 £53.1 £19.6 £371.0 Lewisham £589.9 £0.1 £7.2 £597.2 Merton £510.8 £0.1 £4.3 £515.2 Newham £1,411.1 £0.6 £10.6 £1,422.3 Redbridge £743.8 £0.1 £3.8 £747.6 Richmond upon Thames £517.9 £0.1 £17.7 £535.7 Southwark £559.7 £578.8 £17.2 £1,155.7 Sutton £582.2 £0.2 £2.6 £584.9 Tower Hamlets £392.9 £479.9 £3.5 £876.4 Waltham Forest £560.3 £0.1 £1.8 £562.2 Wandsworth £1,243.3 £0.1 £14.8 £1,258.2 Westminster £5,259.5 £575.8 £1,960.0 £7,795.2 London £28,725.0 £3,209.1 £2,805.0 £34,739.1

Table 13: 2026 Comparison goods expenditure by borough (£ M) Borough Residential Spend Commuter Spend Tourist Spend Total Barking and Dagenham £404.8 £3.5 £3.8 £412.2 Barnet £2,191.5 £2.7 £1.9 £2,196.1 Bexley £884.6 £0.2 £3.7 £888.6 Brent £1,004.7 £0.1 £23.0 £1,027.9 Bromley £1,547.3 £15.3 £7.9 £1,570.5 Camden £663.1 £295.3 £159.4 £1,117.8 City of London £216.7 £1,895.4 £0.0 £2,112.2 Croydon £2,475.7 £88.1 £4.5 £2,568.3 Ealing £919.3 £0.2 £11.2 £930.7 Enfield £907.6 £0.0 £2.7 £910.3 Greenwich £1,067.6 £0.0 £17.8 £1,085.5 Hackney £367.4 £126.4 £5.7 £499.6 Hammersmith and Fulham £2,669.9 £108.1 £95.8 £2,873.9 Haringey £1,134.4 £0.0 £3.9 £1,138.3 Harrow £831.7 £2.4 £4.6 £838.7 Havering £1,253.0 £17.9 £3.0 £1,273.9 Hillingdon £1,329.6 £30.5 £7.9 £1,368.1 Hounslow £1,002.2 £3.9 £14.7 £1,020.9 Islington £619.8 £131.1 £14.1 £765.1 Kensington and Chelsea £1,213.9 £104.6 £579.6 £1,898.1 Kingston upon Thames £1,548.1 £15.3 £8.1 £1,571.5 Lambeth £453.8 £100.4 £25.6 £579.8 Lewisham £893.7 £0.0 £9.3 £902.9 Merton £761.2 £0.0 £5.4 £766.6 Newham £2,203.6 £1.2 £14.0 £2,218.9 Redbridge £1,135.9 £0.0 £4.9 £1,140.8 Richmond upon Thames £778.9 £0.0 £22.8 £801.7 Southwark £877.8 £1,093.6 £22.9 £1,994.3 Sutton £871.2 £0.4 £3.3 £874.8 Tower Hamlets £622.1 £914.1 £4.7 £1,540.9 Waltham Forest £843.5 £0.0 £2.3 £845.8 Wandsworth £1,868.4 £0.0 £18.9 £1,887.2 Westminster £8,167.5 £1,058.8 £2,584.5 £11,810.7 London £43,731.0 £6,009.5 £3,692.0 £53,432.5

Turnover estimates – base scenario

Assumptions used to create turnover estimates 6.47 This exercise should be seen as complementary to individual impact assessments already being undertaken for some of the proposals. Because it applies a London wide approach and is concerned with the cumulative impact of all the proposals, there are inevitably instances where expenditure estimates and impacts at smaller centres differ significantly from studies that have employed a bottom-up approach. Additionally, the retail developments in the scenarios in Stage 2B are assumed to take place instantaneously rather than phased in over months or years, and the impacts to be immediate rather than assuming a maturity curve.

6.48 The following tables summarise expenditure on comparison goods for 2006-2031. The 2031 figures are based on the ‘Baseline’ scenario. This assumes that there will be no further development in London, but that population, workforce and expenditure will grow according to GLA/Experian forecasts. Stage 2B explores how these figures change in relation to proposed developments and schemes nearing completion.

6.49 The tables list the classification of each centre (International, Metropolitan, Major, District). ‘Additional’ has been used to describe retail centres where no classification is available: these include retail warehouse parks, out-of-town shopping malls and brand new developments.

Modelled comparison goods expenditure by centre (2006)

Table 14: Top 20 retail centres in Greater London by comparison goods floorspace (2006) Centre name Classification Comparison Estimated floorspace, turnover, £m sq. m West End International 858,396 4,179 Croydon Metropolitan 180,531 636 Kingston Metropolitan 169,489 646 Knightsbridge International 148,518 842 Ilford Metropolitan 127,546 365 Bromley Metropolitan 108,222 444 Romford Metropolitan 103,730 355 Sutton Metropolitan 95,782 325 Croydon - Additional 91,481 289 Purley Way Kings Road Major 80,045 338 East Brent Cross Additional 79,471 250 Wood Green Metropolitan 76,828 299 Uxbridge Metropolitan 74,811 331 Harrow Metropolitan 69,401 308 Hounslow Metropolitan 68,602 269 Greenwich Additional 58,522 148 Shopping Park Kensington Major 54,373 257 High Street Lewisham Major 49,788 248 Bexleyheath Major 48,831 247 Wimbledon Major 47,799 240

Table 15: Top 20 retail centres in Greater London by estimated comparison goods turnover (2006) Centre name Classification Estimated Comparison turnover, £m Goods floorspace, sq. m West End International 4,179 858,396 Knightsbridge International 842 148,518 Kingston Metropolitan 646 169,489 Croydon Metropolitan 636 180,531 Bromley Metropolitan 444 108,222 Ilford Metropolitan 365 127,546 Romford Metropolitan 355 103,730 Kings Road Major 338 80,045 East Uxbridge Metropolitan 331 74,811 Sutton Metropolitan 325 95,782 Harrow Metropolitan 308 69,401 Wood Green Metropolitan 299 76,828 Croydon - Additional 289 91,481 Purley Way Camden Town Major 287 27,037 Canary Wharf Major 272 36,300 Hounslow Metropolitan 269 68,602 Walthamstow Major 263 40,083 Kensington Major 257 54,373 High Street Brent Cross Additional 250 79,471 Victoria Street CAZ Frontage 248 37,362

6.50 The West End attracts the highest proportion of comparison goods expenditure given its retail mix and sheer critical mass. Other leading centres include, Knightsbridge, Kingston, Croydon and Bromley all of which have major department stores or covered shopping centre schemes.

6.51 The floorspace estimates listed are based on the Goad figures reconciled to SOCD and represent total comparison goods floorspace (inclusive of upper floors and basements).

6.52 The appendices contain estimates of 2006 turnover and floorspace for all International, Metropolitan and Major centres.

Table 16: 2006-2031 comparison goods turnover estimates in constant 2003 prices (base scenario) Centre name Classification 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Estimated Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected turnover, turnover, turnover, turnover, turnover, turnover, £m £m £m £m £m £m West End International 4,179 5,102 6,265 7,847 9,818 12,495 Knightsbridge International 842 1,009 1,224 1,523 1,894 2,396 Kingston Metropolitan 646 754 901 1,113 1,370 1,715 Croydon Metropolitan 636 738 862 1,053 1,289 1,612 Bromley Metropolitan 444 515 607 749 924 1,163 Kings Road Major 338 420 519 653 817 1,044 East Ilford Metropolitan 365 432 513 637 793 1,010 Romford Metropolitan 355 417 494 611 753 943 Canary Wharf Major 272 338 417 531 663 847 Uxbridge Metropolitan 331 381 451 552 676 843 Camden Town Major 287 345 418 522 651 831 Sutton Metropolitan 325 376 443 544 666 830 Harrow Metropolitan 308 355 418 511 625 782 Wood Green Metropolitan 299 347 406 499 613 769 Croydon - Additional 289 335 393 481 592 744 Purley Way Hounslow Metropolitan 269 315 373 458 569 725 Kensington Major 257 309 375 467 573 713 High Street Walthamstow Major 263 307 361 443 547 696 Brent Cross Additional 250 294 355 440 544 684 Victoria Street CAZ Frontage 248 290 345 429 529 668

6.53 The estimated comparison goods turnover for the West End is projected to grow from £4.1 billion in 2006 to £12.4 billion in 2031, with the assumption that no competing developments are completed within this time-frame. In reality, the major pipeline schemes that are being planned or that are currently under construction will deflect a proportion of this expenditure growth away from the West End.

Table 17: Annual household expenditure projections for London boroughs, 2006-2011 (2003 prices) £m

2006 2011 Borough Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total Barking and Dagenham 166,805 252.8 443.5 976.4 1,672.8 177,720 285.5 566.2 1,088.1 1,939.8 Barnet 321,088 530.8 1,046.5 2,459.1 4,036.5 339,730 587.0 1,314.5 2,705.7 4,607.2 Bexley 215,593 342.6 655.3 1,413.3 2,411.2 213,621 359.0 776.3 1,464.1 2,599.5 Brent 273,253 390.8 751.7 1,715.9 2,858.4 282,697 427.1 930.6 1,852.5 3,210.2 Bromley 297,396 516.0 1,004.9 2,240.8 3,761.8 299,791 547.3 1,209.8 2,364.6 4,121.7 Camden 201,532 344.6 727.9 1,753.0 2,825.6 205,618 366.0 885.6 1,868.7 3,120.4 City of London 9,036 20.8 46.3 115.1 182.3 10,571 25.2 64.4 140.9 230.5 Croydon 329,847 536.3 1,035.1 2,342.7 3,914.2 338,804 581.6 1,272.4 2,523.4 4,377.4 Ealing 308,834 474.2 922.7 2,182.9 3,579.9 320,441 517.5 1,144.3 2,369.5 4,031.4 Enfield 285,101 445.9 845.0 1,900.5 3,191.4 286,587 473.0 1,014.9 1,997.0 3,484.9 Greenwich 229,925 363.2 679.2 1,560.0 2,602.3 244,375 408.0 864.8 1,741.4 3,014.2 Hackney 214,910 306.1 592.5 1,406.1 2,304.7 223,784 336.2 739.5 1,531.8 2,607.6 Hammersmith and Fulham 175,199 278.5 580.5 1,444.2 2,303.2 182,403 302.7 720.7 1,570.0 2,593.4 Haringey 226,260 350.5 682.4 1,640.4 2,673.3 233,970 380.7 841.3 1,769.3 2,991.3 Harrow 214,428 333.0 642.7 1,429.9 2,405.6 215,620 353.1 772.5 1,503.3 2,628.9 Havering 226,673 365.2 693.8 1,491.6 2,550.6 230,262 392.6 844.0 1,585.7 2,822.3 Hillingdon 244,233 380.0 729.8 1,592.7 2,702.4 243,000 399.3 867.8 1,657.0 2,924.1 Hounslow 220,308 345.3 705.2 1,508.9 2,559.3 234,390 387.4 895.4 1,677.9 2,960.7 Islington 187,821 307.6 638.1 1,534.3 2,479.9 197,098 338.3 802.0 1,685.1 2,825.4 Kensington and Chelsea 164,805 302.0 659.6 1,565.7 2,527.3 169,516 320.3 806.1 1,680.7 2,807.1 Kingston upon Thames 152,143 258.7 513.3 1,229.2 2,001.1 155,240 276.8 624.4 1,314.1 2,215.3 Lambeth 283,038 435.6 874.3 2,126.8 3,436.8 290,602 469.9 1,074.1 2,284.7 3,828.7 Lewisham 258,388 400.8 770.2 1,796.0 2,967.0 267,448 437.4 954.0 1,944.7 3,336.1 Merton 192,018 321.6 627.1 1,494.1 2,442.8 193,766 340.8 754.5 1,576.3 2,671.6 Newham 254,411 342.7 613.7 1,382.5 2,338.9 286,378 413.9 834.9 1,651.7 2,900.5 Redbridge 245,958 373.3 711.2 1,571.0 2,655.5 256,746 411.0 885.9 1,709.3 3,006.2 Richmond upon Thames 180,430 326.9 657.4 1,611.3 2,595.7 184,334 348.6 800.0 1,721.9 2,870.5 Southwark 264,680 395.7 754.4 1,810.7 2,960.8 287,416 453.5 981.9 2,059.6 3,495.1 Sutton 180,760 304.9 596.7 1,330.1 2,231.6 181,311 322.2 714.8 1,396.2 2,433.3 Tower Hamlets 218,808 303.8 579.0 1,382.1 2,264.9 252,171 371.2 802.7 1,677.5 2,851.4 Waltham Forest 223,203 341.4 641.1 1,448.1 2,430.6 229,741 371.7 789.3 1,558.6 2,719.6 Wandsworth 282,996 462.8 945.5 2,385.9 3,794.1 294,727 504.3 1,175.1 2,599.5 4,278.9 Westminster 211,517 389.7 846.4 2,024.8 3,260.9 219,286 418.9 1,047.1 2,198.2 3,664.2 Greater London 7,461,398 11,844.0 23,213.0 53,866.0 88,923.0 7,749,168 12,928.0 28,772.0 58,469.0 100,169.0

Table 18: Annual household expenditure projections for London boroughs, 2006-2016 (2003 prices) £m

2006 2016 Borough Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total Barking and Dagenham 166,805 252.8 443.5 976.4 1,672.8 187,244 314.1 713.2 1,243.5 2,270.9 Barnet 321,088 530.8 1,046.5 2,459.1 4,036.5 367,720 666.6 1,702.0 3,156.1 5,524.7 Bexley 215,593 342.6 655.3 1,413.3 2,411.2 214,263 377.2 933.7 1,593.2 2,904.1 Brent 273,253 390.8 751.7 1,715.9 2,858.4 285,272 451.4 1,122.8 2,026.1 3,600.3 Bromley 297,396 516.0 1,004.9 2,240.8 3,761.8 299,520 575.4 1,453.7 2,563.8 4,593.0 Camden 201,532 344.6 727.9 1,753.0 2,825.6 210,947 397.4 1,090.0 2,074.7 3,562.1 City of London 9,036 20.8 46.3 115.1 182.3 11,990 30.5 88.3 173.4 292.2 Croydon 329,847 536.3 1,035.1 2,342.7 3,914.2 337,442 608.9 1,524.5 2,732.6 4,866.1 Ealing 308,834 474.2 922.7 2,182.9 3,579.9 327,211 554.0 1,397.6 2,613.9 4,565.5 Enfield 285,101 445.9 845.0 1,900.5 3,191.4 284,260 492.4 1,208.7 2,150.0 3,851.1 Greenwich 229,925 363.2 679.2 1,560.0 2,602.3 262,595 460.3 1,116.0 2,037.8 3,614.1 Hackney 214,910 306.1 592.5 1,406.1 2,304.7 232,173 366.3 918.3 1,725.2 3,009.8 Hammersmith and Fulham 175,199 278.5 580.5 1,444.2 2,303.2 188,413 330.4 893.1 1,754.0 2,977.5 Haringey 226,260 350.5 682.4 1,640.4 2,673.3 236,227 404.1 1,019.3 1,936.5 3,359.9 Harrow 214,428 333.0 642.7 1,429.9 2,405.6 216,385 372.0 929.9 1,637.3 2,939.2 Havering 226,673 365.2 693.8 1,491.6 2,550.6 230,414 411.5 1,012.4 1,722.0 3,146.0 Hillingdon 244,233 380.0 729.8 1,592.7 2,702.4 243,631 420.0 1,044.8 1,803.1 3,267.8 Hounslow 220,308 345.3 705.2 1,508.9 2,559.3 239,459 415.0 1,095.5 1,857.5 3,368.0 Islington 187,821 307.6 638.1 1,534.3 2,479.9 202,040 366.2 985.3 1,874.7 3,226.2 Kensington and Chelsea 164,805 302.0 659.6 1,565.7 2,527.3 173,143 349.1 993.1 1,861.0 3,203.2 Kingston upon Thames 152,143 258.7 513.3 1,229.2 2,001.1 158,021 297.2 766.3 1,452.3 2,515.7 Lambeth 283,038 435.6 874.3 2,126.8 3,436.8 298,648 508.9 1,324.5 2,549.1 4,382.4 Lewisham 258,388 400.8 770.2 1,796.0 2,967.0 275,137 471.9 1,174.1 2,167.0 3,813.0 Merton 192,018 321.6 627.1 1,494.1 2,442.8 192,786 357.2 903.9 1,701.9 2,963.0 Newham 254,411 342.7 613.7 1,382.5 2,338.9 314,185 478.1 1,106.8 1,988.6 3,573.5 Redbridge 245,958 373.3 711.2 1,571.0 2,655.5 261,819 438.0 1,078.6 1,884.2 3,400.7 Richmond upon Thames 180,430 326.9 657.4 1,611.3 2,595.7 185,621 371.6 971.9 1,881.4 3,224.9 Southwark 264,680 395.7 754.4 1,810.7 2,960.8 312,298 517.6 1,278.8 2,429.2 4,225.6 Sutton 180,760 304.9 596.7 1,330.1 2,231.6 180,589 337.4 856.6 1,509.5 2,703.5 Tower Hamlets 218,808 303.8 579.0 1,382.1 2,264.9 273,080 422.3 1,044.9 1,977.5 3,444.6 Waltham Forest 223,203 341.4 641.1 1,448.1 2,430.6 231,947 392.7 954.3 1,707.1 3,054.1 Wandsworth 282,996 462.8 945.5 2,385.9 3,794.1 303,458 548.7 1,456.5 2,903.4 4,908.7 Westminster 211,517 389.7 846.4 2,024.8 3,260.9 224,836 457.8 1,295.4 2,447.7 4,200.8 Greater London 7,461,398 11,844.0 23,213.0 53,866.0 88,923.0 7,962,774 13,962.0 35,455.0 65,135.0 114,552.0

Table 19: Annual household expenditure projections for London boroughs, 2006-2021 (2003 prices) £m

2006 2021 Borough Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total Barking and Dagenham 166,805 252.8 443.5 976.4 1,672.8 203,646 359.0 938.0 1,421.2 2,718.2 Barnet 321,088 530.8 1,046.5 2,459.1 4,036.5 373,160 711.1 2,092.5 3,369.1 6,172.7 Bexley 215,593 342.6 655.3 1,413.3 2,411.2 216,171 400.2 1,141.6 1,691.3 3,233.2 Brent 273,253 390.8 751.7 1,715.9 2,858.4 288,266 479.7 1,375.3 2,154.8 4,009.8 Bromley 297,396 516.0 1,004.9 2,240.8 3,761.8 300,923 608.0 1,770.1 2,710.7 5,088.8 Camden 201,532 344.6 727.9 1,753.0 2,825.6 217,746 430.0 1,356.9 2,242.0 4,028.9 City of London 9,036 20.8 46.3 115.1 182.3 12,715 34.0 113.6 193.5 341.0 Croydon 329,847 536.3 1,035.1 2,342.7 3,914.2 335,855 637.6 1,840.2 2,864.4 5,342.3 Ealing 308,834 474.2 922.7 2,182.9 3,579.9 331,903 590.6 1,717.3 2,788.5 5,096.4 Enfield 285,101 445.9 845.0 1,900.5 3,191.4 284,439 518.2 1,466.1 2,264.2 4,248.5 Greenwich 229,925 363.2 679.2 1,560.0 2,602.3 274,807 507.1 1,417.3 2,252.0 4,176.3 Hackney 214,910 306.1 592.5 1,406.1 2,304.7 240,365 398.9 1,152.5 1,880.0 3,431.5 Hammersmith and Fulham 175,199 278.5 580.5 1,444.2 2,303.2 192,530 354.9 1,105.4 1,884.4 3,344.7 Haringey 226,260 350.5 682.4 1,640.4 2,673.3 242,492 435.4 1,264.1 2,083.8 3,783.3 Harrow 214,428 333.0 642.7 1,429.9 2,405.6 215,157 389.0 1,120.6 1,713.3 3,222.9 Havering 226,673 365.2 693.8 1,491.6 2,550.6 230,989 433.9 1,230.3 1,816.8 3,481.0 Hillingdon 244,233 380.0 729.8 1,592.7 2,702.4 245,000 444.1 1,273.3 1,907.8 3,625.2 Hounslow 220,308 345.3 705.2 1,508.9 2,559.3 241,402 439.9 1,337.8 1,969.8 3,747.5 Islington 187,821 307.6 638.1 1,534.3 2,479.9 207,469 395.5 1,226.3 2,025.6 3,647.4 Kensington and Chelsea 164,805 302.0 659.6 1,565.7 2,527.3 176,092 373.2 1,223.3 1,990.2 3,586.8 Kingston upon Thames 152,143 258.7 513.3 1,229.2 2,001.1 158,734 314.0 933.0 1,535.9 2,782.9 Lambeth 283,038 435.6 874.3 2,126.8 3,436.8 308,046 552.3 1,656.4 2,767.4 4,976.1 Lewisham 258,388 400.8 770.2 1,796.0 2,967.0 279,604 504.2 1,445.6 2,316.3 4,266.1 Merton 192,018 321.6 627.1 1,494.1 2,442.8 192,941 376.0 1,096.6 1,792.9 3,265.4 Newham 254,411 342.7 613.7 1,382.5 2,338.9 326,993 523.7 1,397.1 2,180.1 4,100.9 Redbridge 245,958 373.3 711.2 1,571.0 2,655.5 263,300 462.6 1,312.2 1,989.9 3,764.6 Richmond upon Thames 180,430 326.9 657.4 1,611.3 2,595.7 187,425 394.6 1,189.4 1,998.9 3,583.0 Southwark 264,680 395.7 754.4 1,810.7 2,960.8 334,673 583.5 1,661.4 2,739.8 4,984.7 Sutton 180,760 304.9 596.7 1,330.1 2,231.6 180,611 355.0 1,038.7 1,589.2 2,982.8 Tower Hamlets 218,808 303.8 579.0 1,382.1 2,264.9 289,142 470.2 1,340.9 2,203.4 4,014.5 Waltham Forest 223,203 341.4 641.1 1,448.1 2,430.6 231,694 412.4 1,155.1 1,794.5 3,362.0 Wandsworth 282,996 462.8 945.5 2,385.9 3,794.1 309,593 588.8 1,801.4 3,117.7 5,507.9 Westminster 211,517 389.7 846.4 2,024.8 3,260.9 229,767 492.3 1,605.5 2,633.8 4,731.6 Greater London 7,461,398 11,844.0 23,213.0 53,866.0 88,923.0 8,123,649 14,970.0 43,796.0 69,883.0 128,649.0

Table 20: Annual household expenditure projections for London boroughs, 2006-2026 (2003 prices) £m

2006 2026 Borough Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total Barking and Dagenham 166,805 252.8 443.5 976.4 1,672.8 221,539 412.2 1,242.0 1,610.7 3,264.9 Barnet 321,088 530.8 1,046.5 2,459.1 4,036.5 377,426 756.7 2,569.3 3,533.5 6,859.5 Bexley 215,593 342.6 655.3 1,413.3 2,411.2 218,607 426.9 1,405.9 1,781.4 3,614.2 Brent 273,253 390.8 751.7 1,715.9 2,858.4 291,222 511.1 1,690.4 2,262.1 4,463.6 Bromley 297,396 516.0 1,004.9 2,240.8 3,761.8 303,100 644.5 2,164.1 2,830.0 5,638.7 Camden 201,532 344.6 727.9 1,753.0 2,825.6 224,386 462.9 1,679.1 2,369.5 4,511.5 City of London 9,036 20.8 46.3 115.1 182.3 13,282 37.5 144.7 210.8 393.1 Croydon 329,847 536.3 1,035.1 2,342.7 3,914.2 335,241 669.7 2,227.2 2,961.2 5,858.1 Ealing 308,834 474.2 922.7 2,182.9 3,579.9 334,939 622.2 2,080.4 2,870.7 5,573.4 Enfield 285,101 445.9 845.0 1,900.5 3,191.4 285,438 548.3 1,790.5 2,362.4 4,701.3 Greenwich 229,925 363.2 679.2 1,560.0 2,602.3 281,234 546.2 1,758.7 2,384.0 4,688.9 Hackney 214,910 306.1 592.5 1,406.1 2,304.7 248,090 434.2 1,446.7 2,016.7 3,897.6 Hammersmith and Fulham 175,199 278.5 580.5 1,444.2 2,303.2 196,299 381.4 1,370.3 1,995.5 3,747.2 Haringey 226,260 350.5 682.4 1,640.4 2,673.3 249,583 466.8 1,552.8 2,178.9 4,198.5 Harrow 214,428 333.0 642.7 1,429.9 2,405.6 214,140 407.8 1,356.2 1,770.8 3,534.8 Havering 226,673 365.2 693.8 1,491.6 2,550.6 232,961 461.6 1,510.7 1,907.8 3,880.1 Hillingdon 244,233 380.0 729.8 1,592.7 2,702.4 246,529 470.5 1,557.0 1,994.4 4,021.8 Hounslow 220,308 345.3 705.2 1,508.9 2,559.3 243,111 461.9 1,595.4 2,026.1 4,083.4 Islington 187,821 307.6 638.1 1,534.3 2,479.9 212,913 427.9 1,531.6 2,162.3 4,121.8 Kensington and Chelsea 164,805 302.0 659.6 1,565.7 2,527.3 178,487 394.6 1,488.9 2,070.4 3,954.0 Kingston upon Thames 152,143 258.7 513.3 1,229.2 2,001.1 159,085 330.3 1,130.9 1,582.7 3,043.9 Lambeth 283,038 435.6 874.3 2,126.8 3,436.8 317,221 599.6 2,074.5 2,960.9 5,635.0 Lewisham 258,388 400.8 770.2 1,796.0 2,967.0 283,169 539.0 1,781.3 2,437.0 4,757.3 Merton 192,018 321.6 627.1 1,494.1 2,442.8 193,702 395.6 1,327.3 1,846.2 3,569.1 Newham 254,411 342.7 613.7 1,382.5 2,338.9 337,395 570.0 1,756.1 2,343.7 4,669.8 Redbridge 245,958 373.3 711.2 1,571.0 2,655.5 264,097 488.4 1,598.7 2,070.1 4,157.2 Richmond upon Thames 180,430 326.9 657.4 1,611.3 2,595.7 189,272 419.5 1,458.5 2,091.4 3,969.5 Southwark 264,680 395.7 754.4 1,810.7 2,960.8 348,748 638.4 2,091.7 2,941.9 5,671.9 Sutton 180,760 304.9 596.7 1,330.1 2,231.6 181,028 374.0 1,261.1 1,647.3 3,282.4 Tower Hamlets 218,808 303.8 579.0 1,382.1 2,264.9 303,827 518.0 1,700.4 2,382.9 4,601.3 Waltham Forest 223,203 341.4 641.1 1,448.1 2,430.6 230,937 433.9 1,403.3 1,863.1 3,700.2 Wandsworth 282,996 462.8 945.5 2,385.9 3,794.1 314,460 630.5 2,226.3 3,289.8 6,146.6 Westminster 211,517 389.7 846.4 2,024.8 3,260.9 233,736 526.2 1,980.8 2,777.5 5,284.5 Greater London 7,461,398 11,844.0 23,213.0 53,866.0 88,923.0 8,265,202 16,008.0 53,953.0 73,534.0 143,495.0

Table 21: Annual household expenditure projections for London boroughs, 2006-2031 (2003 prices) £m

2006 2031 Borough Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total Barking and Dagenham 166,805 252.8 443.5 976.4 1,672.8 242,155 476.1 1,655.9 1,784.3 3,916.2 Barnet 321,088 530.8 1,046.5 2,459.1 4,036.5 387,469 817.5 3,203.6 3,652.5 7,673.5 Bexley 215,593 342.6 655.3 1,413.3 2,411.2 222,705 459.1 1,746.9 1,838.4 4,044.4 Brent 273,253 390.8 751.7 1,715.9 2,858.4 299,030 553.5 2,111.7 2,342.2 5,007.4 Bromley 297,396 516.0 1,004.9 2,240.8 3,761.8 308,594 690.9 2,675.8 2,900.5 6,267.2 Camden 201,532 344.6 727.9 1,753.0 2,825.6 229,827 495.6 2,066.5 2,416.9 4,979.0 City of London 9,036 20.8 46.3 115.1 182.3 13,963 41.7 186.0 225.0 452.7 Croydon 329,847 536.3 1,035.1 2,342.7 3,914.2 340,113 714.4 2,736.3 3,016.5 6,467.3 Ealing 308,834 474.2 922.7 2,182.9 3,579.9 343,176 663.8 2,550.3 2,897.0 6,111.1 Enfield 285,101 445.9 845.0 1,900.5 3,191.4 290,596 588.8 2,220.1 2,429.4 5,238.4 Greenwich 229,925 363.2 679.2 1,560.0 2,602.3 290,555 594.5 2,206.9 2,476.2 5,277.6 Hackney 214,910 306.1 592.5 1,406.1 2,304.7 258,714 477.7 1,836.8 2,123.9 4,438.3 Hammersmith and Fulham 175,199 278.5 580.5 1,444.2 2,303.2 202,380 414.2 1,716.2 2,071.3 4,201.7 Haringey 226,260 350.5 682.4 1,640.4 2,673.3 259,660 506.2 1,928.0 2,234.9 4,669.1 Harrow 214,428 333.0 642.7 1,429.9 2,405.6 216,741 435.1 1,671.0 1,808.9 3,915.0 Havering 226,673 365.2 693.8 1,491.6 2,550.6 236,193 494.1 1,866.9 1,957.8 4,318.8 Hillingdon 244,233 380.0 729.8 1,592.7 2,702.4 250,650 503.8 1,925.6 2,047.3 4,476.7 Hounslow 220,308 345.3 705.2 1,508.9 2,559.3 248,535 493.3 1,939.9 2,058.5 4,491.7 Islington 187,821 307.6 638.1 1,534.3 2,479.9 220,567 467.5 1,933.3 2,265.1 4,665.9 Kensington and Chelsea 164,805 302.0 659.6 1,565.7 2,527.3 181,568 417.2 1,809.7 2,087.8 4,314.7 Kingston upon Thames 152,143 258.7 513.3 1,229.2 2,001.1 161,598 352.0 1,388.9 1,601.2 3,342.1 Lambeth 283,038 435.6 874.3 2,126.8 3,436.8 329,962 657.9 2,625.8 3,106.9 6,390.6 Lewisham 258,388 400.8 770.2 1,796.0 2,967.0 289,088 581.4 2,214.7 2,509.9 5,306.0 Merton 192,018 321.6 627.1 1,494.1 2,442.8 197,342 422.1 1,628.6 1,868.1 3,918.7 Newham 254,411 342.7 613.7 1,382.5 2,338.9 353,572 630.1 2,243.1 2,484.8 5,357.9 Redbridge 245,958 373.3 711.2 1,571.0 2,655.5 268,459 523.5 1,978.7 2,124.2 4,626.4 Richmond upon Thames 180,430 326.9 657.4 1,611.3 2,595.7 192,886 449.9 1,804.5 2,141.5 4,395.9 Southwark 264,680 395.7 754.4 1,810.7 2,960.8 367,881 706.2 2,660.0 3,095.1 6,461.3 Sutton 180,760 304.9 596.7 1,330.1 2,231.6 183,592 398.9 1,550.7 1,678.9 3,628.5 Tower Hamlets 218,808 303.8 579.0 1,382.1 2,264.9 324,161 578.6 2,184.8 2,532.7 5,296.1 Waltham Forest 223,203 341.4 641.1 1,448.1 2,430.6 235,875 468.2 1,750.0 1,927.1 4,145.3 Wandsworth 282,996 462.8 945.5 2,385.9 3,794.1 323,406 684.0 2,788.0 3,412.5 6,884.5 Westminster 211,517 389.7 846.4 2,024.8 3,260.9 239,931 567.4 2,464.7 2,866.8 5,898.9 Greater London 7,461,398 11,844.0 23,213.0 53,866.0 88,923.0 8,510,945 17,325.0 67,270.0 75,984.0 160,579.0

Table 22: Annual household expenditure projections for sub-regions, 2006-2011 (2003 prices) £m

2006 2011 Sub-region Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total North 1,648,228 2,675 5,379 12,718 20,772 1,706,074 2,900 6,645 13,756 23,301 North East 1,344,894 2,000 3,729 8,367 14,095 1,443,589 2,271 4,787 9,412 16,470 South East 1,265,983 2,018 3,864 8,821 14,703 1,312,651 2,205 4,787 9,574 16,566 South West 1,601,231 2,647 5,249 12,520 20,416 1,638,785 2,844 6,415 13,416 22,676 West 1,601,061 2,504 4,992 11,440 18,936 1,648,068 2,707 6,137 12,311 21,156 Greater London 7,461,398 11,844 23,213 53,866 88,923 7,749,168 12,928 28,772 58,469 100,169

Table 23: Annual household expenditure projections for sub-regions, 2006-2016 (2003 prices) £m

2006 2016 Sub-region Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total North 1,648,228 2,675 5,379 12,718 20,772 1,758,202 3,151 8,219 15,365 26,735 North East 1,344,894 2,000 3,729 8,367 14,095 1,510,679 2,487 5,999 10,696 19,182 South East 1,265,983 2,018 3,864 8,821 14,703 1,363,814 2,402 5,956 10,791 19,150 South West 1,601,231 2,647 5,249 12,520 20,416 1,656,565 3,030 7,804 14,730 25,564 West 1,601,061 2,504 4,992 11,440 18,936 1,673,514 2,892 7,477 13,553 23,921 Greater London 7,461,398 11,844 23,213 53,866 88,923 7,962,774 13,962 35,455 65,135 114,552

Table 24: Annual household expenditure projections for sub-regions, 2006-2021 (2003 prices) £m

2006 2021 Sub-region Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total North 1,648,228 2,675 5,379 12,718 20,772 1,795,438 3,381 10,164 16,499 30,044 North East 1,344,894 2,000 3,729 8,367 14,095 1,558,479 2,696 7,487 11,599 21,782 South East 1,265,983 2,018 3,864 8,821 14,703 1,406,178 2,603 7,436 11,710 21,749 South West 1,601,231 2,647 5,249 12,520 20,416 1,673,206 3,218 9,556 15,666 28,440 West 1,601,061 2,504 4,992 11,440 18,936 1,690,349 3,071 9,153 14,409 26,633 Greater London 7,461,398 11,844 23,213 53,866 88,923 8,123,649 14,970 43,796 69,883 128,649

Table 25: Annual household expenditure projections for sub-regions, 2006-2026 (2003 prices) £m

2006 2026 Sub-region Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total North 1,648,228 2,675 5,379 12,718 20,772 1,831,572 3,623 12,551 17,401 33,575 North East 1,344,894 2,000 3,729 8,367 14,095 1,604,037 2,922 9,356 12,389 24,667 South East 1,265,983 2,018 3,864 8,821 14,703 1,434,858 2,795 9,202 12,374 24,371 South West 1,601,231 2,647 5,249 12,520 20,416 1,690,009 3,419 11,706 16,380 31,505 West 1,601,061 2,504 4,992 11,440 18,936 1,704,727 3,249 11,139 14,990 29,378 Greater London 7,461,398 11,844 23,213 53,866 88,923 8,265,202 16,008 53,953 73,534 143,495

Table 26: Annual household expenditure projections for sub-regions, 2006-2031 (2003 prices) £m

2006 2031 Sub-region Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total Population Convenience Comparison Leisure Total North 1,648,228 2,675 5,379 12,718 20,772 1,886,765 3,921 15,653 17,990 37,563 North East 1,344,894 2,000 3,729 8,367 14,095 1,674,376 3,212 11,865 13,036 28,113 South East 1,265,983 2,018 3,864 8,821 14,703 1,478,824 3,032 11,504 12,820 27,357 South West 1,601,231 2,647 5,249 12,520 20,416 1,728,900 3,679 14,523 16,826 35,028 West 1,601,061 2,504 4,992 11,440 18,936 1,742,080 3,481 13,724 15,313 32,518 Greater London 7,461,398 11,844 23,213 53,866 88,923 8,510,945 17,325 67,270 75,984 160,579

Table 27: Annual projections of average resident expenditure per capita 2006 and 2011 (2003 prices), £m

2006 2011 Borough Convenience Comparison Other Total Convenience Comparison Other Total Barking and Dagenham 1,516 2,659 5,854 10,028 1,607 3,186 6,122 10,915 Barnet 1,653 3,259 7,659 12,571 1,728 3,869 7,964 13,561 Bexley 1,589 3,039 6,556 11,184 1,681 3,634 6,854 12,168 Brent 1,430 2,751 6,279 10,460 1,511 3,292 6,553 11,356 Bromley 1,735 3,379 7,535 12,649 1,826 4,036 7,887 13,748 Camden 1,710 3,612 8,698 14,020 1,780 4,307 9,088 15,175 City of London 2,307 5,124 12,741 20,172 2,387 6,095 13,326 21,808 Croydon 1,626 3,138 7,102 11,867 1,717 3,755 7,448 12,920 Ealing 1,536 2,988 7,068 11,592 1,615 3,571 7,395 12,581 Enfield 1,564 2,964 6,666 11,194 1,650 3,541 6,968 12,160 Greenwich 1,579 2,954 6,785 11,318 1,670 3,539 7,126 12,334 Hackney 1,424 2,757 6,543 10,724 1,502 3,305 6,845 11,652 Hammersmith and Fulham 1,590 3,313 8,243 13,146 1,659 3,951 8,607 14,218 Haringey 1,549 3,016 7,250 11,815 1,627 3,596 7,562 12,785 Harrow 1,553 2,997 6,668 11,218 1,637 3,583 6,972 12,192 Havering 1,611 3,061 6,581 11,252 1,705 3,665 6,887 12,257 Hillingdon 1,556 2,988 6,521 11,065 1,643 3,571 6,819 12,033 Hounslow 1,567 3,201 6,849 11,617 1,653 3,820 7,159 12,632 Islington 1,638 3,397 8,169 13,203 1,716 4,069 8,550 14,335 Kensington and Chelsea 1,833 4,002 9,500 15,335 1,890 4,755 9,915 16,560 Kingston upon Thames 1,700 3,373 8,079 13,153 1,783 4,022 8,465 14,270 Lambeth 1,539 3,089 7,514 12,142 1,617 3,696 7,862 13,175 Lewisham 1,551 2,981 6,951 11,483 1,636 3,567 7,271 12,474 Merton 1,675 3,266 7,781 12,722 1,759 3,894 8,135 13,788 Newham 1,347 2,412 5,434 9,193 1,445 2,915 5,768 10,128 Redbridge 1,518 2,891 6,387 10,796 1,601 3,450 6,658 11,709 Richmond upon Thames 1,812 3,644 8,930 14,386 1,891 4,340 9,341 15,572 Southwark 1,495 2,850 6,841 11,187 1,578 3,416 7,166 12,160 Sutton 1,686 3,301 7,358 12,345 1,777 3,943 7,701 13,420 Tower Hamlets 1,388 2,646 6,316 10,351 1,472 3,183 6,652 11,308 Waltham Forest 1,529 2,872 6,488 10,889 1,618 3,436 6,784 11,837 Wandsworth 1,635 3,341 8,431 13,407 1,711 3,987 8,820 14,518 Westminster 1,842 4,002 9,573 15,417 1,910 4,775 10,024 16,710 Greater London 1,587 3,111 7,219 11,918 1,668 3,713 7,545 12,926

Table 28: Annual projections of average resident expenditure per capita 2006 and 2016 (2003 prices), £m

2006 2016 Borough Convenience Comparison Other Total Convenience Comparison Other Total Barking and Dagenham 1,516 2,659 5,854 10,028 1,678 3,809 6,641 12,128 Barnet 1,653 3,259 7,659 12,571 1,813 4,628 8,583 15,024 Bexley 1,589 3,039 6,556 11,184 1,761 4,358 7,436 13,554 Brent 1,430 2,751 6,279 10,460 1,582 3,936 7,102 12,621 Bromley 1,735 3,379 7,535 12,649 1,921 4,854 8,560 15,334 Camden 1,710 3,612 8,698 14,020 1,884 5,167 9,835 16,886 City of London 2,307 5,124 12,741 20,172 2,545 7,369 14,460 24,373 Croydon 1,626 3,138 7,102 11,867 1,804 4,518 8,098 14,420 Ealing 1,536 2,988 7,068 11,592 1,693 4,271 7,988 13,953 Enfield 1,564 2,964 6,666 11,194 1,732 4,252 7,563 13,548 Greenwich 1,579 2,954 6,785 11,318 1,753 4,250 7,760 13,763 Hackney 1,424 2,757 6,543 10,724 1,578 3,955 7,431 12,964 Hammersmith and Fulham 1,590 3,313 8,243 13,146 1,753 4,740 9,309 15,803 Haringey 1,549 3,016 7,250 11,815 1,711 4,315 8,198 14,223 Harrow 1,553 2,997 6,668 11,218 1,719 4,298 7,567 13,583 Havering 1,611 3,061 6,581 11,252 1,786 4,394 7,474 13,654 Hillingdon 1,556 2,988 6,521 11,065 1,724 4,288 7,401 13,413 Hounslow 1,567 3,201 6,849 11,617 1,733 4,575 7,757 14,065 Islington 1,638 3,397 8,169 13,203 1,812 4,877 9,279 15,968 Kensington and Chelsea 1,833 4,002 9,500 15,335 2,016 5,736 10,748 18,500 Kingston upon Thames 1,700 3,373 8,079 13,153 1,881 4,849 9,190 15,920 Lambeth 1,539 3,089 7,514 12,142 1,704 4,435 8,535 14,674 Lewisham 1,551 2,981 6,951 11,483 1,715 4,267 7,876 13,858 Merton 1,675 3,266 7,781 12,722 1,853 4,689 8,828 15,369 Newham 1,347 2,412 5,434 9,193 1,522 3,523 6,329 11,374 Redbridge 1,518 2,891 6,387 10,796 1,673 4,119 7,196 12,989 Richmond upon Thames 1,812 3,644 8,930 14,386 2,002 5,236 10,135 17,374 Southwark 1,495 2,850 6,841 11,187 1,657 4,095 7,778 13,531 Sutton 1,686 3,301 7,358 12,345 1,868 4,744 8,359 14,971 Tower Hamlets 1,388 2,646 6,316 10,351 1,546 3,826 7,241 12,614 Waltham Forest 1,529 2,872 6,488 10,889 1,693 4,114 7,360 13,167 Wandsworth 1,635 3,341 8,431 13,407 1,808 4,800 9,568 16,176 Westminster 1,842 4,002 9,573 15,417 2,036 5,761 10,886 18,684 Greater London 1,587 3,111 7,219 11,918 1,753 4,453 8,180 14,386

Table 29: Annual projections of average resident expenditure per capita 2006 and 2021 (2003 prices), £m

2006 2021 Borough Convenience Comparison Other Total Convenience Comparison Other Total Barking and Dagenham 1,516 2,659 5,854 10,028 1,763 4,606 6,979 13,348 Barnet 1,653 3,259 7,659 12,571 1,906 5,608 9,029 16,542 Bexley 1,589 3,039 6,556 11,184 1,852 5,281 7,824 14,957 Brent 1,430 2,751 6,279 10,460 1,664 4,771 7,475 13,910 Bromley 1,735 3,379 7,535 12,649 2,020 5,882 9,008 16,911 Camden 1,710 3,612 8,698 14,020 1,975 6,232 10,296 18,503 City of London 2,307 5,124 12,741 20,172 2,676 8,931 15,215 26,822 Croydon 1,626 3,138 7,102 11,867 1,899 5,479 8,529 15,907 Ealing 1,536 2,988 7,068 11,592 1,779 5,174 8,402 15,355 Enfield 1,564 2,964 6,666 11,194 1,822 5,154 7,960 14,937 Greenwich 1,579 2,954 6,785 11,318 1,845 5,157 8,195 15,197 Hackney 1,424 2,757 6,543 10,724 1,660 4,795 7,822 14,276 Hammersmith and Fulham 1,590 3,313 8,243 13,146 1,843 5,741 9,788 17,372 Haringey 1,549 3,016 7,250 11,815 1,795 5,213 8,593 15,602 Harrow 1,553 2,997 6,668 11,218 1,808 5,208 7,963 14,979 Havering 1,611 3,061 6,581 11,252 1,878 5,326 7,865 15,070 Hillingdon 1,556 2,988 6,521 11,065 1,813 5,197 7,787 14,797 Hounslow 1,567 3,201 6,849 11,617 1,822 5,542 8,160 15,524 Islington 1,638 3,397 8,169 13,203 1,906 5,911 9,763 17,580 Kensington and Chelsea 1,833 4,002 9,500 15,335 2,119 6,947 11,302 20,369 Kingston upon Thames 1,700 3,373 8,079 13,153 1,978 5,878 9,676 17,532 Lambeth 1,539 3,089 7,514 12,142 1,793 5,377 8,984 16,154 Lewisham 1,551 2,981 6,951 11,483 1,803 5,170 8,284 15,258 Merton 1,675 3,266 7,781 12,722 1,949 5,683 9,292 16,924 Newham 1,347 2,412 5,434 9,193 1,602 4,272 6,667 12,541 Redbridge 1,518 2,891 6,387 10,796 1,757 4,984 7,557 14,298 Richmond upon Thames 1,812 3,644 8,930 14,386 2,106 6,346 10,665 19,117 Southwark 1,495 2,850 6,841 11,187 1,743 4,964 8,186 14,894 Sutton 1,686 3,301 7,358 12,345 1,965 5,751 8,799 16,515 Tower Hamlets 1,388 2,646 6,316 10,351 1,626 4,638 7,620 13,884 Waltham Forest 1,529 2,872 6,488 10,889 1,780 4,985 7,745 14,511 Wandsworth 1,635 3,341 8,431 13,407 1,902 5,819 10,070 17,791 Westminster 1,842 4,002 9,573 15,417 2,143 6,988 11,463 20,593 Greater London 1,587 3,111 7,219 11,918 1,843 5,391 8,602 15,836

Table 30: Annual projections of average resident expenditure per capita 2006 and 2026 (2003 prices), £m

2006 2026 Borough Convenience Comparison Other Total Convenience Comparison Other Total Barking and Dagenham 1,516 2,659 5,854 10,028 1,861 5,606 7,271 14,738 Barnet 1,653 3,259 7,659 12,571 2,005 6,807 9,362 18,174 Bexley 1,589 3,039 6,556 11,184 1,953 6,431 8,149 16,533 Brent 1,430 2,751 6,279 10,460 1,755 5,805 7,768 15,327 Bromley 1,735 3,379 7,535 12,649 2,126 7,140 9,337 18,603 Camden 1,710 3,612 8,698 14,020 2,063 7,483 10,560 20,106 City of London 2,307 5,124 12,741 20,172 2,826 10,897 15,875 29,597 Croydon 1,626 3,138 7,102 11,867 1,998 6,644 8,833 17,474 Ealing 1,536 2,988 7,068 11,592 1,858 6,211 8,571 16,640 Enfield 1,564 2,964 6,666 11,194 1,921 6,273 8,277 16,470 Greenwich 1,579 2,954 6,785 11,318 1,942 6,254 8,477 16,673 Hackney 1,424 2,757 6,543 10,724 1,750 5,831 8,129 15,710 Hammersmith and Fulham 1,590 3,313 8,243 13,146 1,943 6,981 10,166 19,089 Haringey 1,549 3,016 7,250 11,815 1,870 6,222 8,730 16,822 Harrow 1,553 2,997 6,668 11,218 1,904 6,333 8,269 16,507 Havering 1,611 3,061 6,581 11,252 1,981 6,485 8,190 16,656 Hillingdon 1,556 2,988 6,521 11,065 1,908 6,316 8,090 16,314 Hounslow 1,567 3,201 6,849 11,617 1,900 6,563 8,334 16,797 Islington 1,638 3,397 8,169 13,203 2,010 7,194 10,156 19,359 Kensington and Chelsea 1,833 4,002 9,500 15,335 2,211 8,342 11,600 22,153 Kingston upon Thames 1,700 3,373 8,079 13,153 2,076 7,109 9,949 19,134 Lambeth 1,539 3,089 7,514 12,142 1,890 6,540 9,334 17,764 Lewisham 1,551 2,981 6,951 11,483 1,903 6,291 8,606 16,800 Merton 1,675 3,266 7,781 12,722 2,042 6,852 9,531 18,426 Newham 1,347 2,412 5,434 9,193 1,689 5,205 6,947 13,841 Redbridge 1,518 2,891 6,387 10,796 1,849 6,054 7,838 15,741 Richmond upon Thames 1,812 3,644 8,930 14,386 2,216 7,706 11,050 20,972 Southwark 1,495 2,850 6,841 11,187 1,830 5,998 8,435 16,264 Sutton 1,686 3,301 7,358 12,345 2,066 6,967 9,099 18,132 Tower Hamlets 1,388 2,646 6,316 10,351 1,705 5,597 7,843 15,144 Waltham Forest 1,529 2,872 6,488 10,889 1,879 6,077 8,067 16,023 Wandsworth 1,635 3,341 8,431 13,407 2,005 7,080 10,462 19,546 Westminster 1,842 4,002 9,573 15,417 2,251 8,475 11,883 22,609 Greater London 1,587 3,111 7,219 11,918 1,937 6,528 8,897 17,361

Table 31: Annual projections of average resident expenditure per capita 2006 and 2031 (2003 prices), £m

2006 2031 Borough Convenience Comparison Other Total Convenience Comparison Other Total Barking and Dagenham 1,516 2,659 5,854 10,028 1,966 6,838 7,368 16,172 Barnet 1,653 3,259 7,659 12,571 2,110 8,268 9,426 19,804 Bexley 1,589 3,039 6,556 11,184 2,061 7,844 8,255 18,160 Brent 1,430 2,751 6,279 10,460 1,851 7,062 7,833 16,745 Bromley 1,735 3,379 7,535 12,649 2,239 8,671 9,399 20,309 Camden 1,710 3,612 8,698 14,020 2,156 8,991 10,516 21,664 City of London 2,307 5,124 12,741 20,172 2,987 13,321 16,112 32,421 Croydon 1,626 3,138 7,102 11,867 2,101 8,045 8,869 19,015 Ealing 1,536 2,988 7,068 11,592 1,934 7,431 8,442 17,808 Enfield 1,564 2,964 6,666 11,194 2,026 7,640 8,360 18,026 Greenwich 1,579 2,954 6,785 11,318 2,046 7,596 8,522 18,164 Hackney 1,424 2,757 6,543 10,724 1,846 7,100 8,209 17,155 Hammersmith and Fulham 1,590 3,313 8,243 13,146 2,046 8,480 10,235 20,762 Haringey 1,549 3,016 7,250 11,815 1,949 7,425 8,607 17,981 Harrow 1,553 2,997 6,668 11,218 2,007 7,710 8,346 18,063 Havering 1,611 3,061 6,581 11,252 2,092 7,904 8,289 18,285 Hillingdon 1,556 2,988 6,521 11,065 2,010 7,682 8,168 17,860 Hounslow 1,567 3,201 6,849 11,617 1,985 7,805 8,283 18,073 Islington 1,638 3,397 8,169 13,203 2,120 8,765 10,270 21,154 Kensington and Chelsea 1,833 4,002 9,500 15,335 2,298 9,967 11,498 23,763 Kingston upon Thames 1,700 3,373 8,079 13,153 2,178 8,595 9,908 20,682 Lambeth 1,539 3,089 7,514 12,142 1,994 7,958 9,416 19,368 Lewisham 1,551 2,981 6,951 11,483 2,011 7,661 8,682 18,354 Merton 1,675 3,266 7,781 12,722 2,139 8,252 9,466 19,858 Newham 1,347 2,412 5,434 9,193 1,782 6,344 7,028 15,154 Redbridge 1,518 2,891 6,387 10,796 1,950 7,371 7,913 17,233 Richmond upon Thames 1,812 3,644 8,930 14,386 2,333 9,355 11,102 22,790 Southwark 1,495 2,850 6,841 11,187 1,920 7,231 8,413 17,564 Sutton 1,686 3,301 7,358 12,345 2,173 8,447 9,145 19,764 Tower Hamlets 1,388 2,646 6,316 10,351 1,785 6,740 7,813 16,338 Waltham Forest 1,529 2,872 6,488 10,889 1,985 7,419 8,170 17,574 Wandsworth 1,635 3,341 8,431 13,407 2,115 8,621 10,552 21,288 Westminster 1,842 4,002 9,573 15,417 2,365 10,272 11,948 24,586 Greater London 1,587 3,111 7,219 11,918 2,036 7,904 8,928 18,867

Table 32: 2006 Comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough (exc.tourists and commuters) – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 166,805 £443.5 38,365 £102.0 43,032 £93.3 128,440 £341.5 77% -£146.2 -£142.3 Barnet 321,088 £1,046.5 134,857 £439.5 103,348 £576.6 186,231 £607.0 58% £409.1 £411.4 Bexley 215,593 £655.3 64,678 £196.6 23,178 £225.1 150,915 £458.7 70% -£37.0 -£34.6 Brent 273,253 £751.7 62,848 £172.9 80,749 £353.5 210,405 £578.8 77% -£52.4 -£37.6 Bromley 297,396 £1,004.9 163,568 £552.7 65,568 £227.6 133,828 £452.2 45% £328.1 £340.0 Camden 201,532 £727.9 28,214 £101.9 119,865 £222.4 173,317 £626.0 86% -£301.7 -£87.4 City of London 9,036 £46.3 2,711 £13.9 355,026 £89.8 6,325 £32.4 70% £71.3 £889.4 Croydon 329,847 £1,035.1 220,997 £693.5 154,399 £534.4 108,849 £341.6 33% £886.3 £927.1 Ealing 308,834 £922.7 83,385 £249.1 83,703 £250.3 225,449 £673.6 73% -£174.2 -£166.6 Enfield 285,101 £845.0 122,594 £363.4 30,913 £85.9 162,508 £481.7 57% -£32.4 -£30.7 Greenwich 229,925 £679.2 71,277 £210.5 108,595 £295.2 158,649 £468.6 69% £37.1 £48.4 Hackney 214,910 £592.5 21,491 £59.3 75,382 £131.8 193,419 £533.3 90% -£342.3 -£281.2 Hammersmith and Fulham 175,199 £580.5 26,280 £87.1 384,086 £392.9 148,919 £493.4 85% -£13.4 £48.8 Haringey 226,260 £682.4 61,090 £184.2 152,397 £382.6 165,170 £498.2 73% £68.7 £71.3 Harrow 214,428 £642.7 92,204 £276.4 43,263 £161.4 122,224 £366.3 57% £71.5 £75.7 Havering 226,673 £693.8 90,669 £277.5 26,014 £330.1 136,004 £416.3 60% £191.4 £200.9 Hillingdon 244,233 £729.8 78,155 £233.5 35,777 £474.0 166,079 £496.2 68% £211.3 £230.3 Hounslow 220,308 £705.2 72,702 £232.7 68,585 £306.9 147,606 £472.5 67% £67.2 £78.9 Islington 187,821 £638.1 30,051 £102.1 105,786 £211.9 157,770 £536.0 84% -£222.0 -£155.8 Kensington and Chelsea 164,805 £659.6 60,978 £244.0 209,923 £455.7 103,827 £415.5 63% £284.2 £671.0 Kingston upon Thames 152,143 £513.3 88,243 £297.7 51,671 £456.4 63,900 £215.6 42% £538.5 £550.4 Lambeth 283,038 £874.3 50,947 £157.4 72,405 £97.2 232,091 £717.0 82% -£462.3 -£411.7 Lewisham 258,388 £770.2 67,181 £200.3 102,912 £250.7 191,207 £570.0 74% -£119.0 -£112.9 Merton 192,018 £627.1 72,967 £238.3 61,065 £179.1 119,051 £388.8 62% £28.6 £32.3 Newham 254,411 £613.7 78,867 £190.2 274,214 £326.4 175,543 £423.4 69% £93.2 £102.1 Redbridge 245,958 £711.2 68,868 £199.1 98,818 £378.5 177,090 £512.1 72% £65.6 £68.7 Richmond upon Thames 180,430 £657.4 12,630 £46.0 57,038 £387.3 167,800 £611.4 93% -£178.1 -£163.7 Southwark 264,680 £754.4 66,170 £188.6 269,199 £186.4 198,510 £565.8 75% -£190.9 £13.7 Sutton 180,760 £596.7 66,881 £220.8 26,948 £226.5 113,879 £375.9 63% £71.4 £73.8 Tower Hamlets 218,808 £579.0 41,574 £110.0 199,413 £180.1 177,235 £469.0 81% -£178.9 £191.2 Waltham Forest 223,203 £641.1 51,337 £147.4 77,167 £288.2 171,866 £493.6 77% -£58.0 -£56.5 Wandsworth 282,996 £945.5 59,429 £198.5 220,207 £489.0 223,567 £746.9 79% -£59.4 -£46.7 Westminster 211,517 £846.4 139,601 £558.7 1,100,060 £3,279.0 71,916 £287.8 34% £3,549.9 £5,557.2 Greater London 7,461,398 £23,213.0 6,789,126 £21,121.5 781,263 £1,042.1 672,272 £2,091.5 9% £20,072.2 £24,522.2

Table 33: 2011 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 177,024 £566.2 40,716 £130.2 43,857 £106.6 136,309 £436.0 77% -£199.1 -£194.7 Barnet 344,404 £1,314.5 144,650 £552.1 104,411 £681.3 199,754 £762.4 58% £471.0 £473.6 Bexley 214,928 £776.3 64,478 £232.9 23,470 £271.8 150,450 £543.4 70% -£38.7 -£35.9 Brent 279,262 £930.6 64,230 £214.0 82,886 £420.5 215,032 £716.6 77% -£82.0 -£64.9 Bromley 298,458 £1,209.8 164,152 £665.4 66,074 £263.7 134,306 £544.4 45% £384.7 £398.2 Camden 206,239 £885.6 28,873 £124.0 124,979 £270.7 177,366 £761.6 86% -£367.0 -£115.0 City of London 10,513 £64.4 3,154 £19.3 376,904 £109.8 7,359 £45.1 70% £84.1 £1,039.3 Croydon 333,644 £1,272.4 223,542 £852.5 154,754 £615.1 110,103 £419.9 33% £1,047.7 £1,093.7 Ealing 318,022 £1,144.3 85,866 £309.0 85,332 £288.5 232,156 £835.4 73% -£237.9 -£229.3 Enfield 284,680 £1,014.9 122,413 £436.4 31,405 £101.2 162,268 £578.5 57% -£40.8 -£38.9 Greenwich 246,260 £864.8 76,341 £268.1 111,744 £345.9 169,920 £596.7 69% £17.3 £30.2 Hackney 223,541 £739.5 22,354 £74.0 78,230 £157.5 201,187 £665.6 90% -£434.1 -£363.8 Hammersmith and Fulham 181,806 £720.7 27,271 £108.1 394,466 £473.9 154,535 £612.6 85% -£30.6 £41.9 Haringey 231,244 £841.3 62,436 £227.2 154,622 £449.5 168,808 £614.2 73% £62.5 £65.4 Harrow 215,407 £772.5 92,625 £332.2 43,805 £187.2 122,782 £440.3 57% £79.1 £83.8 Havering 228,544 £844.0 91,417 £337.6 27,116 £396.2 137,126 £506.4 60% £227.4 £238.3 Hillingdon 243,932 £867.8 78,058 £277.7 36,629 £561.9 165,874 £590.1 68% £249.5 £271.1 Hounslow 229,883 £895.4 75,861 £295.5 69,797 £355.9 154,022 £599.9 67% £51.4 £64.8 Islington 194,931 £802.0 31,189 £128.3 109,227 £251.0 163,742 £673.7 84% -£294.3 -£218.2 Kensington and Chelsea 168,974 £806.1 62,520 £298.2 216,398 £571.5 106,454 £507.8 63% £361.9 £822.4 Kingston upon Thames 155,082 £624.4 89,948 £362.2 52,445 £546.4 65,135 £262.3 42% £646.4 £659.8 Lambeth 290,843 £1,074.1 52,352 £193.3 74,699 £111.5 238,491 £880.8 82% -£575.9 -£516.9 Lewisham 266,763 £954.0 69,358 £248.0 106,894 £295.2 197,404 £706.0 74% -£162.7 -£155.8 Merton 192,402 £754.5 73,113 £286.7 61,843 £208.2 119,289 £467.8 62% £27.1 £31.3 Newham 284,298 £834.9 88,132 £258.8 288,573 £383.4 196,165 £576.1 69% £66.1 £76.7 Redbridge 253,889 £885.9 71,089 £248.1 102,190 £455.1 182,800 £637.8 72% £65.3 £69.0 Richmond upon Thames 183,026 £800.0 12,812 £56.0 58,829 £465.6 170,214 £744.0 93% -£222.3 -£205.7 Southwark 288,489 £981.9 72,122 £245.5 283,412 £218.2 216,367 £736.5 75% -£272.8 -£30.2 Sutton 180,674 £714.8 66,849 £264.5 27,121 £268.6 113,825 £450.4 63% £82.7 £85.4 Tower Hamlets 245,944 £802.7 46,729 £152.5 214,107 £219.1 199,215 £650.2 81% -£278.6 £166.0 Waltham Forest 227,575 £789.3 52,342 £181.5 79,550 £345.3 175,233 £607.7 77% -£80.9 -£79.2 Wandsworth 293,227 £1,175.1 61,578 £246.8 224,194 £575.5 231,649 £928.3 79% -£106.1 -£91.8 Westminster 218,176 £1,047.1 143,996 £691.1 1,136,970 £4,108.9 74,180 £356.0 34% £4,444.0 £6,805.6

Greater London 7,712,086 £28,772.0 6,937,599 £26,061.7 807,512 £1,047.2 774,487 £2,710.3 9% £24,398.6 £29,630.6

Table 34: 2016 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 187,244 £713.2 43,066 £164.0 44,681 £112.0 144,178 £549.2 77% -£273.1 -£268.2 Barnet 367,720 £1,702.0 154,442 £714.8 105,474 £753.1 213,277 £987.1 58% £480.8 £483.8 Bexley 214,263 £933.7 64,279 £280.1 23,762 £311.0 149,984 £653.6 70% -£62.5 -£59.3 Brent 285,272 £1,122.8 65,612 £258.3 85,024 £483.3 219,659 £864.6 77% -£123.0 -£103.9 Bromley 299,520 £1,453.7 164,736 £799.6 66,580 £276.2 134,784 £654.2 45% £421.6 £436.6 Camden 210,947 £1,090.0 29,533 £152.6 130,094 £315.7 181,414 £937.4 86% -£469.1 -£179.5 City of London 11,990 £88.3 3,597 £26.5 398,783 £128.5 8,393 £61.8 70% £93.2 £1,185.8 Croydon 337,442 £1,524.5 226,086 £1,021.4 155,109 £668.4 111,356 £503.1 33% £1,186.7 £1,237.5 Ealing 327,211 £1,397.6 88,347 £377.4 86,962 £315.3 238,864 £1,020.3 73% -£327.6 -£318.0 Enfield 284,260 £1,208.7 122,232 £519.7 31,896 £105.1 162,028 £689.0 57% -£64.1 -£61.9 Greenwich 262,595 £1,116.0 81,404 £346.0 114,893 £378.3 181,190 £770.1 69% -£45.8 -£31.1 Hackney 232,173 £918.3 23,217 £91.8 81,077 £177.6 208,955 £826.4 90% -£557.0 -£477.9 Hammersmith and Fulham 188,413 £893.1 28,262 £134.0 404,845 £548.1 160,151 £759.2 85% -£77.1 £5.5 Haringey 236,227 £1,019.3 63,781 £275.2 156,846 £504.6 172,446 £744.1 73% £35.8 £39.0 Harrow 216,385 £929.9 93,046 £399.9 44,346 £201.3 123,340 £530.1 57% £71.1 £76.4 Havering 230,414 £1,012.4 92,166 £405.0 28,218 £452.5 138,249 £607.5 60% £250.0 £262.2 Hillingdon 243,631 £1,044.8 77,962 £334.3 37,481 £643.9 165,669 £710.4 68% £267.8 £292.0 Hounslow 239,459 £1,095.5 79,021 £361.5 71,010 £398.2 160,437 £734.0 67% £25.8 £40.7 Islington 202,040 £985.3 32,326 £157.7 112,668 £284.2 169,714 £827.7 84% -£385.9 -£300.2 Kensington and Chelsea 173,143 £993.1 64,063 £367.4 222,874 £670.5 109,080 £625.6 63% £412.3 £944.6 Kingston upon Thames 158,021 £766.3 91,652 £444.4 53,219 £626.4 66,369 £321.8 42% £749.1 £764.3 Lambeth 298,648 £1,324.5 53,757 £238.4 76,994 £115.9 244,891 £1,086.1 82% -£731.8 -£664.1 Lewisham 275,137 £1,174.1 71,536 £305.3 110,876 £329.3 203,602 £868.8 74% -£234.3 -£226.5 Merton 192,786 £903.9 73,259 £343.5 62,622 £228.4 119,527 £560.4 62% £11.5 £16.1 Newham 314,185 £1,106.8 97,397 £343.1 302,933 £422.5 216,788 £763.7 69% £1.9 £14.1 Redbridge 261,819 £1,078.6 73,309 £302.0 105,562 £520.5 188,510 £776.6 72% £45.9 £50.0 Richmond upon Thames 185,621 £971.9 12,993 £68.0 60,620 £540.7 172,628 £903.9 93% -£295.2 -£276.3 Southwark 312,298 £1,278.8 78,075 £319.7 297,625 £237.5 234,224 £959.1 75% -£401.9 -£120.0 Sutton 180,589 £856.6 66,818 £317.0 27,295 £301.5 113,771 £539.7 63% £78.8 £81.8 Tower Hamlets 273,080 £1,044.9 51,885 £198.5 228,800 £253.7 221,195 £846.4 81% -£394.1 £122.8 Waltham Forest 231,947 £954.3 53,348 £219.5 81,932 £394.1 178,599 £734.8 77% -£121.3 -£119.3 Wandsworth 303,458 £1,456.5 63,726 £305.9 228,180 £650.4 239,732 £1,150.7 79% -£194.4 -£178.5 Westminster 224,836 £1,295.4 148,392 £854.9 1,173,879 £4,928.7 76,444 £440.4 34% £5,343.2 £8,063.1

Greater London 7,962,774 £35,455.0 7,086,073 £31,551.4 833,761 £1,077.2 876,701 £3,903.6 11% £28,725.0 £34,739.1

Table 35: 2021 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 204,391 £938.0 47,010 £215.7 45,350 £136.2 157,381 £722.3 77% -£370.3 -£363.9 Barnet 372,573 £2,092.5 156,481 £878.9 105,614 £967.0 216,092 £1,213.7 58% £632.2 £636.1 Bexley 216,435 £1,141.6 64,931 £342.5 24,323 £404.0 151,505 £799.1 70% -£52.7 -£48.6 Brent 288,247 £1,375.3 66,297 £316.3 85,670 £612.3 221,950 £1,059.0 77% -£130.4 -£105.8 Bromley 301,310 £1,770.1 165,721 £973.5 67,647 £373.8 135,590 £796.5 45% £550.8 £570.0 Camden 217,666 £1,356.9 30,473 £190.0 132,186 £402.2 187,193 £1,167.0 86% -£574.8 -£196.8 City of London 12,636 £113.6 3,791 £34.1 413,951 £165.7 8,845 £79.5 70% £120.3 £1,555.4 Croydon 336,341 £1,840.2 225,349 £1,233.0 156,395 £869.4 110,993 £607.3 33% £1,495.1 £1,559.8 Ealing 331,075 £1,717.3 89,390 £463.7 88,007 £401.3 241,685 £1,253.6 73% -£388.7 -£376.5 Enfield 284,849 £1,466.1 122,485 £630.4 32,359 £152.6 162,364 £835.7 57% -£52.7 -£49.8 Greenwich 271,914 £1,417.3 84,293 £439.4 117,827 £477.5 187,621 £977.9 69% -£61.0 -£42.1 Hackney 240,131 £1,152.5 24,013 £115.3 83,044 £225.1 216,118 £1,037.3 90% -£696.9 -£593.8 Hammersmith and Fulham 192,356 £1,105.4 28,853 £165.8 407,901 £692.3 163,503 £939.6 85% -£81.5 £25.4 Haringey 242,905 £1,264.1 65,584 £341.3 157,568 £635.4 177,321 £922.8 73% £53.9 £58.1 Harrow 215,263 £1,120.6 92,563 £481.9 45,012 £266.4 122,700 £638.8 57% £109.5 £116.2 Havering 231,687 £1,230.3 92,675 £492.1 29,220 £586.1 139,012 £738.2 60% £340.1 £355.8 Hillingdon 245,080 £1,273.3 78,426 £407.4 38,482 £812.1 166,654 £865.8 68% £353.7 £384.7 Hounslow 241,285 £1,337.8 79,624 £441.5 72,210 £508.3 161,661 £896.3 67% £53.5 £72.6 Islington 207,476 £1,226.3 33,196 £196.2 114,990 £362.6 174,280 £1,030.1 84% -£471.3 -£359.8 Kensington and Chelsea 175,815 £1,223.3 65,052 £452.6 225,427 £864.6 110,764 £770.7 63% £546.5 £1,240.5 Kingston upon Thames 158,553 £933.0 91,961 £541.2 53,789 £806.1 66,592 £391.9 42% £955.4 £975.0 Lambeth 307,934 £1,656.4 55,428 £298.2 78,226 £148.7 252,506 £1,358.3 82% -£911.4 -£822.3 Lewisham 279,153 £1,445.6 72,580 £375.8 113,395 £426.6 206,573 £1,069.7 74% -£267.3 -£257.3 Merton 193,244 £1,096.6 73,433 £416.7 63,309 £296.8 119,811 £679.9 62% £33.7 £39.5 Newham 325,790 £1,397.1 100,995 £433.1 314,258 £550.2 224,795 £964.0 69% £19.3 £35.3 Redbridge 262,958 £1,312.2 73,628 £367.4 108,678 £669.6 189,330 £944.8 72% £92.3 £97.5 Richmond upon Thames 187,447 £1,189.4 13,121 £83.3 61,220 £678.9 174,325 £1,106.1 93% -£344.0 -£319.7 Southwark 330,523 £1,661.4 82,631 £415.4 306,316 £305.2 247,892 £1,246.1 75% -£525.5 -£152.0 Sutton 180,808 £1,038.7 66,899 £384.3 27,683 £389.6 113,909 £654.4 63% £119.6 £123.4 Tower Hamlets 288,454 £1,340.9 54,806 £254.8 237,691 £329.4 233,648 £1,086.2 81% -£502.0 £182.4 Waltham Forest 231,442 £1,155.1 53,232 £265.7 83,731 £502.4 178,210 £889.4 77% -£121.3 -£118.8 Wandsworth 308,959 £1,801.4 64,881 £378.3 229,972 £820.3 244,077 £1,423.1 79% -£224.5 -£204.1 Westminster 229,286 £1,605.5 151,329 £1,059.7 1,196,403 £6,304.0 77,957 £545.9 34% £6,817.8 £10,358.6 Greater London 8,113,988 £43,796.0 7,262,831 £39,201.8 849,594 £1,620.4 851,157 £4,594.2 10% £36,228.0 £44,085.8 76

Table 36: 2026 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 221,539 £1,242.0 50,954 £285.7 46,018 £147.0 170,585 £956.4 77% -£523.7 -£515.6 Barnet 377,426 £2,569.3 158,519 £1,079.1 105,753 £1,149.1 218,907 £1,490.2 58% £738.0 £742.8 Bexley 218,607 £1,405.9 65,582 £421.8 24,884 £482.3 153,025 £984.1 70% -£80.0 -£75.0 Brent 291,222 £1,690.4 66,981 £388.8 86,317 £732.9 224,241 £1,301.6 77% -£179.9 -£149.7 Bromley 303,100 £2,164.1 166,705 £1,190.3 68,714 £431.6 136,395 £973.8 45% £648.0 £671.5 Camden 224,386 £1,679.1 31,414 £235.1 134,278 £478.4 192,972 £1,444.1 86% -£730.6 -£262.4 City of London 13,282 £144.7 3,985 £43.4 429,119 £200.7 9,297 £101.3 70% £142.8 £1,918.5 Croydon 335,241 £2,227.2 224,611 £1,492.2 157,680 £1,023.3 110,629 £735.0 33% £1,780.6 £1,859.0 Ealing 334,939 £2,080.4 90,433 £561.7 89,052 £477.1 244,505 £1,518.7 73% -£479.9 -£465.0 Enfield 285,438 £1,790.5 122,738 £769.9 32,821 £177.6 162,700 £1,020.6 57% -£73.1 -£69.6 Greenwich 281,234 £1,758.7 87,182 £545.2 120,760 £574.2 194,051 £1,213.5 69% -£94.1 -£70.6 Hackney 248,090 £1,446.7 24,809 £144.7 85,011 £267.7 223,281 £1,302.1 90% -£889.7 -£762.4 Hammersmith and Fulham 196,299 £1,370.3 29,445 £205.5 410,956 £813.9 166,854 £1,164.7 85% -£145.3 -£15.2 Haringey 249,583 £1,552.8 67,387 £419.3 158,291 £752.9 182,196 £1,133.6 73% £38.6 £43.7 Harrow 214,140 £1,356.2 92,080 £583.2 45,678 £309.1 122,060 £773.0 57% £119.2 £127.3 Havering 232,961 £1,510.7 93,184 £604.3 30,222 £690.8 139,776 £906.4 60% £388.7 £407.8 Hillingdon 246,529 £1,557.0 78,889 £498.2 39,482 £962.8 167,640 £1,058.7 68% £402.3 £440.0 Hounslow 243,111 £1,595.4 80,227 £526.5 73,409 £616.4 162,884 £1,068.9 67% £73.9 £97.2 Islington 212,913 £1,531.6 34,066 £245.1 117,312 £428.3 178,847 £1,286.6 84% -£613.2 -£476.5 Kensington and Chelsea 178,487 £1,488.9 66,040 £550.9 227,980 £1,035.0 112,447 £938.0 63% £647.9 £1,501.9 Kingston upon Thames 159,085 £1,130.9 92,270 £655.9 54,359 £964.2 66,816 £475.0 42% £1,145.1 £1,168.9 Lambeth 317,221 £2,074.5 57,100 £373.4 79,459 £165.8 260,121 £1,701.1 82% -£1,161.9 -£1,052.1 Lewisham 283,169 £1,781.3 73,624 £463.1 115,913 £498.8 209,545 £1,318.2 74% -£356.2 -£344.0 Merton 193,702 £1,327.3 73,607 £504.4 63,997 £347.2 120,095 £822.9 62% £28.7 £35.8 Newham 337,395 £1,756.1 104,592 £544.4 325,583 £664.3 232,802 £1,211.7 69% -£3.0 £16.9 Redbridge 264,097 £1,598.7 73,947 £447.6 111,794 £807.6 190,149 £1,151.1 72% £104.2 £110.7 Richmond upon Thames 189,272 £1,458.5 13,249 £102.1 61,820 £811.7 176,023 £1,356.4 93% -£442.7 -£413.1 Southwark 348,748 £2,091.7 87,187 £522.9 315,006 £351.8 261,561 £1,568.8 75% -£694.0 -£231.2 Sutton 181,028 £1,261.1 66,980 £466.6 28,071 £459.1 114,047 £794.5 63% £131.2 £135.9 Tower Hamlets 303,827 £1,700.4 57,727 £323.1 246,582 £392.2 246,100 £1,377.3 81% -£662.1 £187.8 Waltham Forest 230,937 £1,403.3 53,115 £322.8 85,529 £600.2 177,821 £1,080.5 77% -£157.6 -£154.5 Wandsworth 314,460 £2,226.3 66,037 £467.5 231,764 £963.7 248,423 £1,758.7 79% -£327.6 -£302.8 Westminster 233,736 £1,980.8 154,266 £1,307.3 1,218,927 £7,661.4 79,470 £673.5 34% £8,295.2 £12,665.4 Greater London 8,265,202 £53,953.0 7,355,204 £48,012.8 865,427 £1,658.5 909,999 £5,940.2 11% £43,731.0 £53,432.5 77

Table 37: 2031 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 242,155 £1,655.9 55,696 £380.8 47,540 £170.1 186,459 £1,275.0 77% -£724.1 -£712.9 Barnet 387,469 £3,203.6 162,737 £1,345.5 107,408 £1,432.2 224,732 £1,858.1 58% £919.7 £926.1 Bexley 222,705 £1,746.9 66,811 £524.1 26,496 £604.8 155,893 £1,222.9 70% -£93.9 -£87.2 Brent 299,030 £2,111.7 68,777 £485.7 88,416 £917.4 230,253 £1,626.0 77% -£222.9 -£182.1 Bromley 308,594 £2,675.8 169,727 £1,471.7 72,271 £546.1 138,868 £1,204.1 45% £813.7 £845.1 Camden 229,827 £2,066.5 32,176 £289.3 137,181 £597.6 197,651 £1,777.2 86% -£890.3 -£256.1 City of London 13,963 £186.0 4,189 £55.8 446,362 £252.2 9,774 £130.2 70% £177.8 £2,585.1 Croydon 340,113 £2,736.3 227,876 £1,833.3 162,130 £1,278.1 112,237 £903.0 33% £2,208.5 £2,312.8 Ealing 343,176 £2,550.3 92,658 £688.6 91,822 £608.9 250,519 £1,861.7 73% -£564.2 -£544.3 Enfield 290,596 £2,220.1 124,956 £954.7 34,503 £230.5 165,640 £1,265.5 57% -£80.4 -£75.7 Greenwich 290,555 £2,206.9 90,072 £684.1 125,606 £734.0 200,483 £1,522.8 69% -£104.6 -£72.8 Hackney 258,714 £1,836.8 25,871 £183.7 88,245 £335.8 232,843 £1,653.1 90% -£1,133.6 -£961.4 Hammersmith and Fulham 202,380 £1,716.2 30,357 £257.4 414,759 £991.1 172,023 £1,458.8 85% -£210.3 -£37.3 Haringey 259,660 £1,928.0 70,108 £520.6 161,333 £937.2 189,552 £1,407.4 73% £50.3 £57.0 Harrow 216,741 £1,671.0 93,199 £718.5 47,622 £381.2 123,542 £952.5 57% £147.3 £158.0 Havering 236,193 £1,866.9 94,477 £746.8 31,957 £853.5 141,716 £1,120.2 60% £480.1 £505.5 Hillingdon 250,650 £1,925.6 80,208 £616.2 42,401 £1,192.0 170,442 £1,309.4 68% £498.8 £548.8 Hounslow 248,535 £1,939.9 82,017 £640.2 76,648 £783.7 166,519 £1,299.7 67% £124.2 £155.4 Islington 220,567 £1,933.3 35,291 £309.3 120,086 £531.0 185,277 £1,624.0 84% -£783.6 -£600.2 Kensington and Chelsea 181,568 £1,809.7 67,180 £669.6 230,541 £1,296.3 114,388 £1,140.1 63% £825.8 £1,973.7 Kingston upon Thames 161,598 £1,388.9 93,727 £805.6 55,979 £1,199.5 67,871 £583.3 42% £1,421.7 £1,453.1 Lambeth 329,962 £2,625.8 59,393 £472.6 80,983 £203.0 270,569 £2,153.1 82% -£1,477.5 -£1,329.5 Lewisham 289,088 £2,214.7 75,163 £575.8 118,562 £620.2 213,925 £1,638.9 74% -£442.9 -£426.6 Merton 197,342 £1,628.6 74,990 £618.9 65,862 £431.4 122,352 £1,009.7 62% £40.6 £50.0 Newham 353,572 £2,243.1 109,607 £695.3 341,518 £849.3 243,965 £1,547.7 69% -£3.1 £24.0 Redbridge 268,459 £1,978.7 75,168 £554.0 116,792 £1,019.8 193,290 £1,424.7 72% £149.2 £158.0 Richmond upon Thames 192,886 £1,804.5 13,502 £126.3 63,377 £1,005.0 179,384 £1,678.2 93% -£546.8 -£507.4 Southwark 367,881 £2,660.0 91,970 £665.0 324,536 £434.3 275,911 £1,995.0 75% -£895.7 -£267.3 Sutton 183,592 £1,550.7 67,929 £573.8 29,502 £568.3 115,663 £977.0 63% £165.1 £171.3 Tower Hamlets 324,161 £2,184.8 61,591 £415.1 256,588 £493.5 262,570 £1,769.7 81% -£861.1 £296.5 Waltham Forest 235,875 £1,750.0 54,251 £402.5 89,304 £752.6 181,624 £1,347.5 77% -£192.4 -£188.3 Wandsworth 323,406 £2,788.0 67,915 £585.5 235,258 £1,179.7 255,491 £2,202.6 79% -£437.4 -£404.6 Westminster 239,931 £2,464.7 158,354 £1,626.7 1,254,085 £9,613.5 81,577 £838.0 34% £10,402.2 £16,287.9

Greater London 8,510,945 £67,270.0 7,573,890 £59,863.6 891,158 £2,079.9 937,055 £7,406.4 11% £54,537.0 £67,631.7

Table 38: 2006 Comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) North 1,648,228 £4,718.2 445,022 £1,273.9 1,687,751 £5,425.2 1,203,207 £3,444.3 73% £3,254.9 £5,610.4 North East 1,344,894 £3,270.6 470,713 £1,144.7 1,073,683 £1,582.0 874,181 £2,125.9 65% £600.8 £1,816.0 South East 1,265,983 £3,389.4 341,815 £915.1 569,451 £1,618.4 924,168 £2,474.3 73% £59.3 £295.7 South West 1,601,231 £4,604.6 752,579 £2,164.2 643,732 £2,058.0 848,653 £2,440.4 53% £1,781.7 £1,918.1 West 1,601,061 £4,379.0 464,308 £1,269.9 906,086 £2,620.6 1,136,753 £3,109.1 71% £781.4 £1,287.8 Greater London 7,461,398 £23,213.0 6,789,126 £21,121.5 781,263 £1,042.1 672,272 £2,091.5 9% £20,072.2 £24,522.2

Table 39: 2011 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) North 1,703,215 £5,734.5 459,868 £1,548.3 1,739,843 £6,704.8 1,243,347 £4,186.2 73% £4,066.9 £6,834.6 North East 1,427,786 £4,098.9 499,725 £1,434.6 1,132,296 £1,909.0 928,061 £2,664.3 65% £679.3 £2,110.3 South East 1,314,899 £4,141.0 355,023 £1,118.1 591,594 £1,936.8 959,876 £3,022.9 73% £31.9 £310.6 South West 1,628,898 £5,507.4 765,582 £2,588.5 653,886 £2,464.3 863,316 £2,918.9 53% £2,133.9 £2,290.2 West 1,637,288 £5,260.2 474,813 £1,525.4 929,314 £3,168.7 1,162,474 £3,734.7 71% £959.5 £1,557.8 Greater London 7,712,086 £28,772.0 6,937,599 £26,061.7 807,512 £1,047.2 774,487 £2,710.3 9% £24,398.6 £29,630.6

Table 40: 2016 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) North 1,758,202 £6,750.9 474,715 £1,822.7 1,791,936 £8,013.1 1,283,488 £4,928.1 73% £4,907.7 £8,090.3 North East 1,510,679 £4,927.1 528,738 £1,724.5 1,190,909 £2,217.9 981,941 £3,202.6 65% £739.8 £2,384.7 South East 1,363,814 £4,892.5 368,230 £1,321.0 613,736 £2,262.1 995,584 £3,571.5 73% £11.5 £334.0 South West 1,656,565 £6,410.3 778,586 £3,012.8 664,040 £2,857.5 877,979 £3,397.4 53% £2,472.9 £2,649.0 West 1,673,514 £6,141.3 485,319 £1,781.0 952,543 £3,712.4 1,188,195 £4,360.4 71% £1,133.1 £1,821.0 Greater London 7,962,774 £35,455.0 7,086,073 £31,551.4 833,761 £1,077.2 876,701 £3,903.6 11% £28,725.0 £34,739.1

Table 41: 2021 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) North 1,794,887 £8,529.6 484,619 £2,303.0 1,822,164 £10,157.7 1,310,267 £6,226.6 73% £6,234.1 £10,378.3 North East 1,557,358 £6,305.7 545,075 £2,207.0 1,232,878 £2,795.6 1,012,283 £4,098.7 65% £903.9 £3,069.3 South East 1,399,336 £6,225.0 377,821 £1,680.8 629,507 £2,852.9 1,021,515 £4,544.3 73% -£10.6 £415.2 South West 1,673,287 £8,012.2 786,445 £3,765.8 670,595 £3,579.0 886,842 £4,246.5 53% £3,098.2 £3,326.0 West 1,689,121 £7,644.9 489,845 £2,217.0 962,709 £4,669.4 1,199,276 £5,427.9 71% £1,458.5 £2,353.1 Greater London 8,113,988 £43,796.0 7,262,831 £39,201.8 849,594 £1,620.4 851,157 £4,594.2 10% £36,228.0 £44,085.8

Table 42: 2026 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) North 1,831,572 £10,308.3 494,524 £2,783.2 1,852,392 £12,332.6 1,337,047 £7,525.1 73% £7,590.8 £12,706.5 North East 1,604,037 £7,684.2 561,413 £2,689.5 1,274,848 £3,384.6 1,042,624 £4,994.7 65% £1,079.3 £3,761.5 South East 1,434,858 £7,557.5 387,412 £2,040.5 645,278 £3,441.6 1,047,446 £5,517.0 73% -£34.9 £492.1 South West 1,690,009 £9,614.2 794,304 £4,518.7 677,149 £4,278.4 895,705 £5,095.5 53% £3,701.6 £3,979.8 West 1,704,727 £9,148.4 494,371 £2,653.0 972,874 £5,608.9 1,210,356 £6,495.4 71% £1,766.6 £2,865.0 Greater London 8,265,202 £53,953.0 7,355,204 £48,012.8 865,427 £1,658.5 909,999 £5,940.2 11% £43,731.0 £53,432.5

Table 43: 2031 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) North 1,886,765 £12,855.4 509,427 £3,471.0 1,902,840 £15,436.4 1,377,339 £9,384.4 73% £9,522.9 £16,416.4 North East 1,674,376 £9,744.8 586,032 £3,410.7 1,330,061 £4,230.8 1,088,345 £6,334.1 65% £1,307.3 £4,948.7 South East 1,478,824 £9,448.4 399,282 £2,551.1 667,470 £4,309.2 1,079,541 £6,897.3 73% -£37.0 £677.6 South West 1,728,900 £11,927.3 812,583 £5,605.8 693,091 £5,275.2 916,317 £6,321.5 53% £4,559.6 £4,931.0 West 1,742,080 £11,271.6 505,203 £3,268.8 992,210 £6,978.1 1,236,877 £8,002.8 71% £2,244.0 £3,717.7 Greater London 8,510,945 £67,270.0 7,573,890 £59,863.6 891,158 £2,079.9 937,055 £7,406.4 11% £54,537.0 £67,631.7

7 STAGE 2B – COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE NEED - FUTURE SCENARIOS

7.1 The key processes are:

• Develop an understanding of the nature, scale and timing of proposed developments. • Incorporate this knowledge into the project model. • Revisit the expenditure figures. • Realign the floorspace needs base analysis.

Analysis of pipeline developments 7.2 The scale and timelines for the major retail developments and redevelopments that are proposed for London over the coming years have been assessed by the GLA and consultants and evaluated by the boroughs in terms of accuracy. The information has been gathered from the public domain, directly from the boroughs, and estimated/modelled in developments for which actual data is not forthcoming. Using the model, Experian then estimated the extent to which the new developments will affect consumer patterns and expenditure flows throughout London. Understanding the nature and scale of these developments will help formulate a picture of how London’s retailing landscape will evolve over the next decade and beyond.

7.3 The following major retail developments are either committed, approved or proposed to commence in the short to medium term:

Table 44: List of proposed major retail developments in London

Scheme Additional comparison Commencement Current Planning floorspace (m2) of initial phase Status White City 121,046 2008 Opened 2008 Stratford 112,000 2011 Under construction Brent Cross 60,776 2012 Application Kingston upon Thames 50,000 2012 Pre-Application Elephant & Castle 48,030 2011 Not started Bromley 38,000 2012 Part of Bromley AAP Croydon 36,707 2011 Permission Battersea Park 30,000 2010 Pre-Application Kings Cross (London) 24,800 2009 Not started Woolwich 22,297 2011 Application

7.4 A full breakdown of all pipeline developments included within the modelling process can be found within the appendices. Each of the pipeline developments included have been sent through to the boroughs for verification.

7.5 'Initial phase' refers to the expected opening year of the first phase of a centre.' Additional comparison floorspace' refers to the total increase in gross comparison floorspace.

7.6 The 'wish list' of information on each of the developments was:

• Overall size. • Expected breakdown of floorspace by retail, leisure etc. • Expected breakdown of retail floorspace by comparison, convenience etc. • Number of units. • Expected start and completion time.

7.7 This level of detail is not always available. However, this should not detract from the outputs of the gravity model. Gaps in information can be in-filled by basing the likely composition of shopping developments on suitable benchmark centres.

Impact studies 7.8 These studies are essentially the outputs of the gravity modelling exercise. They quantify the extent to which the new developments would affect consumer patterns and expenditure flows throughout London. This involves running the model produced in Stage 2A with the expanded list of possible shopping destinations.

7.9 The retail footprints of the specified centres are redrawn, by factoring in the new retail developments into the model. This has been performed both in isolation (that is, on a development-by-development basis) and as a unified whole (factoring in all the developments together). The attractiveness score of each centre is recalculated based on this revised footprint and used to overwrite the original score in the gravity model.

7.10 The model was used to assess the impact on all centres examined in Stage 2A of the project:

• Effect on flows. • Effect on catchment areas. • Effect on expenditure.

Modelled scenarios 7.11 The impact studies have been produced in the following ways:

1. Timeline: as a time series looking at each year from 2006-2031. This takes into account the timings and gestation periods of the proposed schemes and provides an impact snapshot at given points in time. 2. Treating each development in isolation – that is, looking at the impact each development will have individually.

7.12 They have been compared to the following base scenario:

‘Baseline’: assumes that there will be no further development in London, but that population, workforce and expenditure will grow according to GLA/Experian forecasts.

7.13 For the purposes of simplicity within the model, the scenarios assume that each development is all built out immediately at the start of the year (the ‘commencement of initial phase’) as opposed to having a mid-year opening and longer phased implementation. This first year matches the expected opening year of the first phase of the centre. The model also assumes instant sales maturity. In reality, the developments will take a number of years to build and for their turnover to mature, causing short- term fluctuations in actual turnover figures.

Turnover estimates (Timeline) 7.14 The following results show snapshot predictions of the expenditure ranking of retail centres in Greater London for 5 years increments to 2031, assuming all major developments listed above and those listed in the appendices.

Table 45: Timeline turnover estimates 2006-2031 for top 20 retail centres (2031) in Greater London, £m Centre name Classification 2006 2016 2026 2031 estimated projected projected projected turnover, turnover, turnover, turnover, £m £m £m £m West End International 4,179 5,935 9,311 11,852 White City New - 1,205 1,807 2,250 Development Knightsbridge International 842 1,128 1,747 2,211 Stratford Major 129 909 1,412 1,799 Croydon Metropolitan 636 889 1,330 1,663 Kingston Metropolitan 646 864 1,314 1,645 Bromley Metropolitan 444 581 884 1,112 Kings Road Major 338 473 748 957 East Ilford Metropolitan 365 470 727 927 Romford Metropolitan 355 479 729 913 Elephant and District 20 418 657 842 Castle Canary Wharf Major 272 403 640 817 Camden Major 287 394 615 785 Town Sutton Metropolitan 325 418 629 783 Uxbridge Metropolitan 331 414 620 774 Battersea Additional 12 399 604 761 Brent Cross Additional 250 392 601 755 Wood Green Metropolitan 299 390 589 738 Harrow Metropolitan 308 391 586 732 Croydon - Additional 289 372 562 705 Purley Way

7.15 The impact of the proposed new developments on the Greater London ranking of existing centres can be seen in the following table, which charts the change in relative position over 2006-2031.

Table 46: Timeline change in London comparison turnover ranking, 2006-2031 Centre name Class Rank 2006 Rank 2031 Change in rank 2006- 2031 West End International 1 1 No Change White City Additional - 2 - Knightsbridge International 2 3 -1 Stratford Major 40 4 36 Croydon Metropolitan 4 5 -1 Kingston Metropolitan 3 6 -3 Bromley Metropolitan 5 7 -2 Kings Road East Major 8 8 No Change Ilford Metropolitan 6 9 -3 Romford Metropolitan 7 10 -3 Elephant and Castle District 216 11 205 Canary Wharf Major 15 12 3 Camden Town Major 14 13 1 Sutton Metropolitan 10 14 -4 Uxbridge Metropolitan 9 15 -6 Battersea Additional 278 16 262 Brent Cross Additional 19 17 2 Wood Green Metropolitan 12 18 -6 Harrow Metropolitan 11 19 -8 Croydon - Purley Way Additional 13 20 -7

Turnover estimates – key developments 7.16 The following major developments have been assessed to assess their impact on existing centres within Greater London:

1. Stratford. 2. White City. 3. Elephant & Castle. 4. Battersea. 5. Brent Cross

7.17 A summary of the results from each scenario can be seen on the following pages. Table 47 to Table 56 provide the results at borough and sub-region level.

Table 47: 2011 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough - 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 177,024 £566.2 38,945 £124.6 46,050 £117.9 138,079 £441.6 78% -£199.2 -£194.7 Barnet 344,404 £1,314.5 154,982 £591.5 109,632 £674.0 189,422 £723.0 55% £542.5 £545.2 Bexley 214,928 £776.3 62,329 £225.1 24,643 £293.6 152,599 £551.2 71% -£32.5 -£29.7 Brent 279,262 £930.6 67,023 £223.4 87,031 £431.8 212,239 £707.3 76% -£52.1 -£35.1 Bromley 298,458 £1,209.8 158,183 £641.2 69,377 £302.3 140,275 £568.6 47% £374.9 £388.4 Camden 206,239 £885.6 26,811 £115.1 131,228 £293.5 179,428 £770.5 87% -£361.9 -£109.9 City of London 10,513 £64.4 2,838 £17.4 395,749 £117.3 7,674 £47.0 73% £87.7 £1,042.9 Croydon 333,644 £1,272.4 230,215 £877.9 162,492 £619.1 103,430 £394.4 31% £1,102.6 £1,148.6 Ealing 318,022 £1,144.3 79,506 £286.1 89,599 £327.0 238,517 £858.3 75% -£245.2 -£236.7 Enfield 284,680 £1,014.9 119,566 £426.3 32,975 £117.0 165,115 £588.7 58% -£45.4 -£43.4 Greenwich 246,260 £864.8 73,878 £259.5 117,331 £372.3 172,382 £605.4 70% £26.3 £39.3 Hackney 223,541 £739.5 20,119 £66.6 82,141 £173.2 203,422 £673.0 91% -£433.2 -£362.9 Hammersmith and Fulham 181,806 £720.7 43,634 £173.0 414,189 £429.5 138,173 £547.7 76% £54.7 £127.2 Haringey 231,244 £841.3 60,123 £218.7 162,353 £480.8 171,120 £622.6 74% £77.0 £79.9 Harrow 215,407 £772.5 88,317 £316.7 45,995 £212.8 127,090 £455.8 59% £73.8 £78.5 Havering 228,544 £844.0 89,132 £329.1 28,472 £424.8 139,412 £514.8 61% £239.2 £250.1 Hillingdon 243,932 £867.8 75,619 £269.0 38,461 £599.1 168,313 £598.8 69% £269.4 £290.9 Hounslow 229,883 £895.4 73,563 £286.5 73,287 £383.1 156,321 £608.9 68% £60.7 £74.1 Islington 194,931 £802.0 29,240 £120.3 114,688 £272.0 165,691 £681.7 85% -£289.4 -£213.2 Kensington and Chelsea 168,974 £806.1 55,762 £266.0 227,218 £633.9 113,213 £540.1 67% £359.9 £820.4 Kingston upon Thames 155,082 £624.4 94,600 £380.9 55,067 £554.1 60,482 £243.5 39% £691.5 £704.9 Lambeth 290,843 £1,074.1 63,985 £236.3 78,434 £71.9 226,857 £837.8 78% -£529.5 -£470.5 Lewisham 266,763 £954.0 66,691 £238.5 112,239 £320.0 200,072 £715.5 75% -£157.0 -£150.1 Merton 192,402 £754.5 67,341 £264.1 64,935 £242.4 125,061 £490.5 65% £16.0 £20.2 Newham 284,298 £834.9 122,248 £359.0 303,002 £297.3 162,050 £475.9 57% £180.4 £191.0 Redbridge 253,889 £885.9 68,550 £239.2 107,299 £487.2 185,339 £646.7 73% £79.7 £83.3 Richmond upon Thames 183,026 £800.0 10,982 £48.0 61,771 £497.3 172,044 £752.0 94% -£206.7 -£190.0 Southwark 288,489 £981.9 89,432 £304.4 297,583 £167.2 199,058 £677.5 69% -£205.9 £36.7 Sutton 180,674 £714.8 63,236 £250.2 28,477 £297.0 117,438 £464.7 65% £82.5 £85.3 Tower Hamlets 245,944 £802.7 39,351 £128.4 224,812 £255.4 206,593 £674.3 84% -£290.5 £154.1 Waltham Forest 227,575 £789.3 43,239 £150.0 83,527 £395.7 184,336 £639.3 81% -£93.6 -£91.9 Wandsworth 293,227 £1,175.1 49,849 £199.8 235,404 £653.6 243,378 £975.3 83% -£122.0 -£107.7 Westminster 218,176 £1,047.1 130,906 £628.2 1,193,818 £4,380.3 87,271 £418.8 40% £4,589.8 £6,951.3 Greater London 7,712,086 £28,772.0 7,062,728 £26,349.4 929,856 £858.8 649,358 £2,422.6 8% £24,785.6 £30,017.7

Table 48: 2016 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough - 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 187,244 £713.2 41,194 £156.9 46,915 £125.1 146,050 £556.3 78% -£274.3 -£269.4 Barnet 367,720 £1,702.0 165,474 £765.9 110,748 £737.1 202,246 £936.1 55% £566.9 £569.9 Bexley 214,263 £933.7 62,136 £270.8 24,950 £336.4 152,127 £662.9 71% -£55.8 -£52.6 Brent 285,272 £1,122.8 68,465 £269.5 89,275 £495.7 216,806 £853.4 76% -£88.2 -£69.0 Bromley 299,520 £1,453.7 158,746 £770.5 69,909 £320.6 140,775 £683.3 47% £407.8 £422.8 Camden 210,947 £1,090.0 27,423 £141.7 136,598 £343.0 183,523 £948.3 87% -£463.6 -£174.0 City of London 11,990 £88.3 3,237 £23.9 418,722 £137.7 8,753 £64.5 73% £97.1 £1,189.7 Croydon 337,442 £1,524.5 232,835 £1,051.9 162,865 £669.8 104,607 £472.6 31% £1,249.1 £1,299.9 Ealing 327,211 £1,397.6 81,803 £349.4 91,310 £360.4 245,408 £1,048.2 75% -£338.4 -£328.8 Enfield 284,260 £1,208.7 119,389 £507.7 33,491 £123.0 164,871 £701.1 58% -£70.4 -£68.2 Greenwich 262,595 £1,116.0 78,778 £334.8 120,638 £408.9 183,816 £781.2 70% -£37.5 -£22.8 Hackney 232,173 £918.3 20,896 £82.6 85,131 £196.2 211,277 £835.6 91% -£556.8 -£477.7 Hammersmith and Fulham 188,413 £893.1 45,219 £214.4 425,088 £491.1 143,194 £678.8 76% £26.7 £109.3 Haringey 236,227 £1,019.3 61,419 £265.0 164,689 £540.6 174,808 £754.2 74% £51.3 £54.6 Harrow 216,385 £929.9 88,718 £381.3 46,564 £230.9 127,667 £548.7 59% £63.5 £68.7 Havering 230,414 £1,012.4 89,862 £394.9 29,629 £485.7 140,553 £617.6 61% £263.0 £275.2 Hillingdon 243,631 £1,044.8 75,526 £323.9 39,356 £687.1 168,105 £720.9 69% £290.1 £314.3 Hounslow 239,459 £1,095.5 76,627 £350.6 74,561 £429.7 162,832 £744.9 68% £35.3 £50.2 Islington 202,040 £985.3 30,306 £147.8 118,301 £308.7 171,734 £837.5 85% -£381.0 -£295.4 Kensington and Chelsea 173,143 £993.1 57,137 £327.7 234,018 £745.8 116,006 £665.4 67% £408.1 £940.3 Kingston upon Thames 158,021 £766.3 96,393 £467.4 55,880 £633.6 61,628 £298.8 39% £802.2 £817.4 Lambeth 298,648 £1,324.5 65,703 £291.4 80,843 £66.1 232,945 £1,033.1 78% -£675.6 -£607.9 Lewisham 275,137 £1,174.1 68,784 £293.5 116,420 £358.1 206,353 £880.6 75% -£228.9 -£221.2 Merton 192,786 £903.9 67,475 £316.4 65,753 £268.3 125,311 £587.5 65% -£2.9 £1.7 Newham 314,185 £1,106.8 135,099 £475.9 318,079 £304.1 179,085 £630.9 57% £149.2 £161.4 Redbridge 261,819 £1,078.6 70,691 £291.2 110,840 £557.8 191,128 £787.4 73% £61.7 £65.7 Richmond upon Thames 185,621 £971.9 11,137 £58.3 63,651 £577.9 174,484 £913.6 94% -£277.4 -£258.5 Southwark 312,298 £1,278.8 96,812 £396.4 312,506 £168.8 215,486 £882.4 69% -£317.1 -£35.2 Sutton 180,589 £856.6 63,206 £299.8 28,660 £334.6 117,383 £556.8 65% £77.6 £80.6 Tower Hamlets 273,080 £1,044.9 43,693 £167.2 240,240 £299.3 229,387 £877.7 84% -£411.2 £105.7 Waltham Forest 231,947 £954.3 44,070 £181.3 86,028 £453.8 187,877 £773.0 81% -£137.8 -£135.9 Wandsworth 303,458 £1,456.5 51,588 £247.6 239,589 £744.1 251,870 £1,208.9 83% -£217.2 -£201.3 Westminster 224,836 £1,295.4 134,902 £777.2 1,232,573 £5,256.7 89,934 £518.1 40% £5,515.8 £8,235.7 Greater London 7,962,774 £35,455.0 7,133,849 £31,764.1 960,082 £1,107.4 828,925 £3,690.9 10% £29,180.7 £35,194.8

Table 49: 2021 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough - 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 204,391 £938.0 44,966 £206.4 47,617 £152.9 159,425 £731.7 78% -£372.4 -£366.0 Barnet 372,573 £2,092.5 167,658 £941.6 110,894 £949.5 204,915 £1,150.9 55% £740.2 £744.1 Bexley 216,435 £1,141.6 62,766 £331.1 25,539 £436.2 153,669 £810.6 71% -£43.3 -£39.3 Brent 288,247 £1,375.3 69,179 £330.1 89,954 £628.4 219,068 £1,045.2 76% -£86.7 -£62.1 Bromley 301,310 £1,770.1 159,694 £938.1 71,029 £429.6 141,616 £831.9 47% £535.8 £555.1 Camden 217,666 £1,356.9 28,297 £176.4 138,795 £436.5 189,370 £1,180.5 87% -£567.6 -£189.6 City of London 12,636 £113.6 3,412 £30.7 434,648 £177.5 9,224 £82.9 73% £125.3 £1,560.4 Croydon 336,341 £1,840.2 232,076 £1,269.8 164,215 £874.2 104,266 £570.5 31% £1,573.5 £1,638.2 Ealing 331,075 £1,717.3 82,769 £429.3 92,407 £457.4 248,306 £1,288.0 75% -£401.2 -£389.0 Enfield 284,849 £1,466.1 119,637 £615.8 33,977 £175.6 165,212 £850.4 58% -£59.0 -£56.1 Greenwich 271,914 £1,417.3 81,574 £425.2 123,718 £516.3 190,340 £992.1 70% -£50.6 -£31.6 Hackney 240,131 £1,152.5 21,612 £103.7 87,196 £248.5 218,520 £1,048.8 91% -£696.6 -£593.5 Hammersmith and Fulham 192,356 £1,105.4 46,166 £265.3 428,296 £622.4 146,191 £840.1 76% £47.6 £154.6 Haringey 242,905 £1,264.1 63,155 £328.7 165,447 £680.5 179,750 £935.5 74% £73.7 £77.8 Harrow 215,263 £1,120.6 88,258 £459.5 47,263 £303.2 127,005 £661.2 59% £101.5 £108.2 Havering 231,687 £1,230.3 90,358 £479.8 30,681 £628.4 141,329 £750.5 61% £357.7 £373.4 Hillingdon 245,080 £1,273.3 75,975 £394.7 40,406 £866.1 169,105 £878.6 69% £382.2 £413.2 Hounslow 241,285 £1,337.8 77,211 £428.1 75,820 £547.8 164,074 £909.7 68% £66.2 £85.3 Islington 207,476 £1,226.3 31,121 £183.9 120,739 £393.6 176,355 £1,042.4 85% -£464.8 -£353.3 Kensington and Chelsea 175,815 £1,223.3 58,019 £403.7 236,698 £959.2 117,796 £819.6 67% £543.2 £1,237.2 Kingston upon Thames 158,553 £933.0 96,717 £569.2 56,478 £817.0 61,836 £363.9 39% £1,022.3 £1,041.8 Lambeth 307,934 £1,656.4 67,746 £364.4 82,138 £86.6 240,189 £1,292.0 78% -£841.0 -£751.9 Lewisham 279,153 £1,445.6 69,788 £361.4 119,064 £463.1 209,365 £1,084.2 75% -£259.7 -£249.7 Merton 193,244 £1,096.6 67,635 £383.8 66,475 £346.2 125,609 £712.8 65% £17.2 £23.1 Newham 325,790 £1,397.1 140,090 £600.7 329,971 £401.7 185,700 £796.3 57% £206.1 £222.1 Redbridge 262,958 £1,312.2 70,999 £354.3 114,112 £716.9 191,959 £957.9 73% £113.3 £118.5 Richmond upon Thames 187,447 £1,189.4 11,247 £71.4 64,281 £725.3 176,200 £1,118.0 94% -£321.3 -£297.0 Southwark 330,523 £1,661.4 102,462 £515.0 321,631 £215.8 228,061 £1,146.4 69% -£415.6 -£42.0 Sutton 180,808 £1,038.7 63,283 £363.5 29,067 £430.9 117,525 £675.2 65% £119.3 £123.2 Tower Hamlets 288,454 £1,340.9 46,153 £214.6 249,576 £388.1 242,301 £1,126.4 84% -£523.8 £160.7 Waltham Forest 231,442 £1,155.1 43,974 £219.5 87,917 £576.1 187,468 £935.6 81% -£140.1 -£137.6 Wandsworth 308,959 £1,801.4 52,523 £306.2 241,471 £937.0 256,436 £1,495.1 83% -£251.9 -£231.5 Westminster 229,286 £1,605.5 137,572 £963.3 1,256,224 £6,720.4 91,714 £642.2 40% £7,041.5 £10,582.2 Greater London 8,113,988 £43,796.0 7,343,971 £39,639.8 978,314 £1,319.2 770,017 £4,156.2 9% £36,802.7 £44,660.5

Table 50: 2026 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough - 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 221,539 £1,242.0 48,739 £273.2 48,319 £167.4 172,801 £968.8 78% -£528.2 -£520.1 Barnet 377,426 £2,569.3 169,841 £1,156.2 111,040 £1,125.6 207,584 £1,413.1 55% £868.7 £873.5 Bexley 218,607 £1,405.9 63,396 £407.7 26,128 £521.2 155,211 £998.2 71% -£69.3 -£64.3 Brent 291,222 £1,690.4 69,893 £405.7 90,633 £751.8 221,329 £1,284.7 76% -£127.2 -£97.0 Bromley 303,100 £2,164.1 160,643 £1,147.0 72,150 £498.7 142,457 £1,017.1 47% £628.5 £652.0 Camden 224,386 £1,679.1 29,170 £218.3 140,992 £519.9 195,216 £1,460.8 87% -£722.7 -£254.4 City of London 13,282 £144.7 3,586 £39.1 450,575 £215.3 9,696 £105.6 73% £148.7 £1,924.4 Croydon 335,241 £2,227.2 231,316 £1,536.8 165,564 £1,027.7 103,925 £690.4 31% £1,874.1 £1,952.5 Ealing 334,939 £2,080.4 83,735 £520.1 93,504 £544.7 251,204 £1,560.3 75% -£495.5 -£480.7 Enfield 285,438 £1,790.5 119,884 £752.0 34,462 £205.3 165,554 £1,038.5 58% -£81.2 -£77.7 Greenwich 281,234 £1,758.7 84,370 £527.6 126,798 £621.4 196,864 £1,231.1 70% -£82.1 -£58.6 Hackney 248,090 £1,446.7 22,328 £130.2 89,261 £296.3 225,762 £1,316.5 91% -£890.0 -£762.8 Hammersmith and Fulham 196,299 £1,370.3 47,112 £328.9 431,504 £725.1 149,187 £1,041.4 76% £12.6 £142.7 Haringey 249,583 £1,552.8 64,892 £403.7 166,205 £806.9 184,691 £1,149.1 74% £61.5 £66.6 Harrow 214,140 £1,356.2 87,797 £556.0 47,962 £353.0 126,343 £800.2 59% £108.9 £117.0 Havering 232,961 £1,510.7 90,855 £589.2 31,733 £741.2 142,106 £921.5 61% £408.9 £428.0 Hillingdon 246,529 £1,557.0 76,424 £482.7 41,456 £1,027.3 170,105 £1,074.3 69% £435.6 £473.3 Hounslow 243,111 £1,595.4 77,795 £510.5 77,079 £663.9 165,315 £1,084.9 68% £89.6 £112.9 Islington 212,913 £1,531.6 31,937 £229.7 123,177 £465.8 180,976 £1,301.9 85% -£606.3 -£469.6 Kensington and Chelsea 178,487 £1,488.9 58,901 £491.3 239,379 £1,149.3 119,587 £997.6 67% £643.0 £1,497.0 Kingston upon Thames 159,085 £1,130.9 97,042 £689.8 57,077 £976.7 62,043 £441.0 39% £1,225.5 £1,249.3 Lambeth 317,221 £2,074.5 69,789 £456.4 83,432 £86.9 247,432 £1,618.1 78% -£1,074.8 -£964.9 Lewisham 283,169 £1,781.3 70,792 £445.3 121,709 £542.5 212,377 £1,336.0 75% -£348.2 -£336.0 Merton 193,702 £1,327.3 67,796 £464.6 67,196 £406.4 125,906 £862.8 65% £8.2 £15.3 Newham 337,395 £1,756.1 145,080 £755.1 341,862 £476.3 192,315 £1,001.0 57% £230.4 £250.3 Redbridge 264,097 £1,598.7 71,306 £431.7 117,383 £864.8 192,790 £1,167.1 73% £129.4 £135.9 Richmond upon Thames 189,272 £1,458.5 11,356 £87.5 64,911 £867.5 177,916 £1,371.0 94% -£415.9 -£386.3 Southwark 348,748 £2,091.7 108,112 £648.4 330,757 £237.6 240,636 £1,443.3 69% -£557.2 -£94.4 Sutton 181,028 £1,261.1 63,360 £441.4 29,474 £508.6 117,668 £819.7 65% £130.2 £134.9 Tower Hamlets 303,827 £1,700.4 48,612 £272.1 258,911 £465.3 255,215 £1,428.3 84% -£690.9 £158.9 Waltham Forest 230,937 £1,403.3 43,878 £266.6 89,806 £689.2 187,059 £1,136.7 81% -£180.9 -£177.8 Wandsworth 314,460 £2,226.3 53,458 £378.5 243,352 £1,105.3 261,002 £1,847.8 83% -£364.0 -£339.3 Westminster 233,736 £1,980.8 140,241 £1,188.5 1,279,874 £8,169.2 93,494 £792.3 40% £8,565.4 £12,935.6 Greater London 8,265,202 £53,953.0 7,404,795 £48,336.5 996,546 £1,704.8 860,408 £5,616.5 10% £44,424.8 £54,126.2

Table 51: 2031 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough - 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 242,155 £1,655.9 53,274 £364.3 49,917 £196.0 188,881 £1,291.6 78% -£731.3 -£720.1 Barnet 387,469 £3,203.6 174,361 £1,441.6 112,778 £1,402.9 213,108 £1,762.0 55% £1,082.6 £1,089.0 Bexley 222,705 £1,746.9 64,584 £506.6 27,821 £653.4 158,120 £1,240.3 71% -£80.3 -£73.6 Brent 299,030 £2,111.7 71,767 £506.8 92,837 £941.1 227,263 £1,604.9 76% -£157.0 -£116.2 Bromley 308,594 £2,675.8 163,555 £1,418.2 75,884 £629.6 145,039 £1,257.6 47% £790.2 £821.6 Camden 229,827 £2,066.5 29,878 £268.6 144,040 £649.2 199,950 £1,797.8 87% -£880.0 -£245.9 City of London 13,963 £186.0 3,770 £50.2 468,680 £270.7 10,193 £135.8 73% £185.2 £2,592.4 Croydon 340,113 £2,736.3 234,678 £1,888.1 170,236 £1,284.6 105,435 £848.3 31% £2,324.4 £2,428.7 Ealing 343,176 £2,550.3 85,794 £637.6 96,413 £692.9 257,382 £1,912.7 75% -£582.3 -£562.3 Enfield 290,596 £2,220.1 122,050 £932.5 36,229 £265.3 168,546 £1,287.7 58% -£89.9 -£85.2 Greenwich 290,555 £2,206.9 87,166 £662.1 131,886 £793.9 203,388 £1,544.8 70% -£88.9 -£57.0 Hackney 258,714 £1,836.8 23,284 £165.3 92,658 £371.9 235,430 £1,671.4 91% -£1,134.3 -£962.1 Hammersmith and Fulham 202,380 £1,716.2 48,571 £411.9 435,497 £878.5 153,809 £1,304.3 76% -£14.0 £159.0 Haringey 259,660 £1,928.0 67,512 £501.3 169,399 £1,004.3 192,149 £1,426.7 74% £78.8 £85.6 Harrow 216,741 £1,671.0 88,864 £685.1 50,003 £435.4 127,877 £985.9 59% £134.6 £145.3 Havering 236,193 £1,866.9 92,115 £728.1 33,555 £915.8 144,078 £1,138.8 61% £505.0 £530.4 Hillingdon 250,650 £1,925.6 77,701 £596.9 44,521 £1,271.8 172,948 £1,328.6 69% £540.1 £590.1 Hounslow 248,535 £1,939.9 79,531 £620.8 80,480 £843.3 169,004 £1,319.1 68% £144.9 £176.2 Islington 220,567 £1,933.3 33,085 £290.0 126,090 £577.9 187,482 £1,643.3 85% -£775.5 -£592.0 Kensington and Chelsea 181,568 £1,809.7 59,918 £597.2 242,068 £1,437.2 121,651 £1,212.5 67% £821.9 £1,969.8 Kingston upon Thames 161,598 £1,388.9 98,575 £847.2 58,778 £1,215.7 63,023 £541.7 39% £1,521.3 £1,552.7 Lambeth 329,962 £2,625.8 72,592 £577.7 85,032 £102.9 257,371 £2,048.1 78% -£1,367.6 -£1,219.5 Lewisham 289,088 £2,214.7 72,272 £553.7 124,490 £674.5 216,816 £1,661.1 75% -£432.9 -£416.6 Merton 197,342 £1,628.6 69,070 £570.0 69,155 £504.3 128,272 £1,058.6 65% £15.7 £25.1 Newham 353,572 £2,243.1 152,036 £964.5 358,594 £609.1 201,536 £1,278.5 57% £295.1 £322.2 Redbridge 268,459 £1,978.7 72,484 £534.3 122,631 £1,091.6 195,975 £1,444.5 73% £181.4 £190.2 Richmond upon Thames 192,886 £1,804.5 11,573 £108.3 66,546 £1,074.2 181,313 £1,696.2 94% -£513.7 -£474.3 Southwark 367,881 £2,660.0 114,043 £824.6 340,763 £288.5 253,838 £1,835.4 69% -£722.4 -£94.0 Sutton 183,592 £1,550.7 64,257 £542.8 30,978 £629.3 119,335 £1,008.0 65% £164.0 £170.3 Tower Hamlets 324,161 £2,184.8 51,866 £349.6 269,417 £587.0 272,295 £1,835.3 84% -£898.7 £258.9 Waltham Forest 235,875 £1,750.0 44,816 £332.5 93,770 £863.7 191,059 £1,417.5 81% -£221.3 -£217.2 Wandsworth 323,406 £2,788.0 54,979 £474.0 247,020 £1,355.7 268,427 £2,314.1 83% -£484.4 -£451.6 Westminster 239,931 £2,464.7 143,959 £1,478.8 1,316,789 £10,249.4 95,972 £985.9 40% £10,742.4 £16,628.1 Greater London 8,510,945 £67,270.0 7,624,956 £60,267.2 1,026,176 £2,137.8 885,989 £7,002.8 10% £55,402.2 £68,496.9

Table 52: 2011 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Of Trade Commuting) North 1,703,215 £5,734.5 476,900 £1,605.7 1,765,941 £6,747.2 1,226,315 £4,128.9 72% £4,224.0 £6,991.7 North East 1,427,786 £4,098.9 514,003 £1,475.6 1,149,280 £1,896.0 913,783 £2,623.3 64% £748.3 £2,179.3 South East 1,314,899 £4,141.0 368,172 £1,159.5 600,468 £1,923.8 946,727 £2,981.5 72% £101.7 £380.5 South West 1,628,898 £5,507.4 798,160 £2,698.6 663,694 £2,389.5 830,738 £2,808.8 51% £2,279.4 £2,435.7 West 1,637,288 £5,260.2 507,559 £1,630.7 943,254 £3,109.5 1,129,728 £3,629.5 69% £1,110.6 £1,708.9 Greater London 7,712,086 £28,772.0 7,062,728 £26,349.4 929,856 £858.8 649,358 £2,422.6 8% £24,785.6 £30,017.7

Table 53: 2016 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Of Trade Commuting) North 1,758,202 £6,750.9 492,297 £1,890.2 1,818,815 £8,064.8 1,265,906 £4,860.6 72% £5,094.4 £8,277.0 North East 1,510,679 £4,927.1 543,844 £1,773.8 1,208,772 £2,201.2 966,834 £3,153.4 64% £821.6 £2,466.5 South East 1,363,814 £4,892.5 381,868 £1,369.9 622,942 £2,246.3 981,946 £3,522.6 72% £93.6 £416.1 South West 1,656,565 £6,410.3 811,717 £3,141.0 674,000 £2,770.2 844,848 £3,269.2 51% £2,642.0 £2,818.1 West 1,673,514 £6,141.3 518,789 £1,903.8 966,831 £3,643.4 1,154,725 £4,237.5 69% £1,309.7 £1,997.7 Greater London 7,962,774 £35,455.0 7,133,849 £31,764.1 960,082 £1,107.4 828,925 £3,690.9 10% £29,180.7 £35,194.8

Table 54: 2021 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Of Trade Commuting) North 1,794,887 £8,529.6 502,568 £2,388.3 1,849,496 £10,223.5 1,292,319 £6,141.3 72% £6,470.5 £10,614.7 North East 1,557,358 £6,305.7 560,649 £2,270.0 1,251,372 £2,773.5 996,709 £4,035.6 64% £1,007.9 £3,173.4 South East 1,399,336 £6,225.0 391,814 £1,743.0 638,950 £2,832.5 1,007,522 £4,482.0 72% £93.5 £519.3 South West 1,673,287 £8,012.2 819,911 £3,926.0 680,653 £3,470.0 853,376 £4,086.2 51% £3,309.8 £3,537.5 West 1,689,121 £7,644.9 523,627 £2,369.9 977,149 £4,584.2 1,165,493 £5,275.0 69% £1,679.2 £2,573.8 Greater London 8,113,988 £43,796.0 7,343,971 £39,639.8 978,314 £1,319.2 770,017 £4,156.2 9% £36,802.7 £44,660.5

Table 55: 2026 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Of Trade Commuting) North 1,831,572 £10,308.3 512,840 £2,886.3 1,880,178 £12,412.9 1,318,731 £7,422.0 72% £7,877.3 £12,993.0 North East 1,604,037 £7,684.2 577,453 £2,766.3 1,293,971 £3,357.3 1,026,584 £4,917.9 64% £1,205.8 £3,887.9 South East 1,434,858 £7,557.5 401,760 £2,116.1 654,957 £3,416.5 1,033,098 £5,441.4 72% £91.2 £618.1 South West 1,690,009 £9,614.2 828,104 £4,711.0 687,307 £4,147.4 861,904 £4,903.3 51% £3,955.1 £4,233.3 West 1,704,727 £9,148.4 528,465 £2,836.0 987,467 £5,507.4 1,176,262 £6,312.4 69% £2,031.0 £3,129.3 Greater London 8,265,202 £53,953.0 7,404,795 £48,336.5 996,546 £1,704.8 860,408 £5,616.5 10% £44,424.8 £54,126.2

Table 56: 2031 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) North 1,886,765 £12,855.4 528,294 £3,599.5 1,931,383 £15,537.5 1,358,471 £9,255.9 72% £9,674.0 £16,567.5 North East 1,674,376 £9,744.8 602,776 £3,508.1 1,350,011 £4,195.3 1,071,601 £6,236.7 64% £1,328.1 £4,969.5 South East 1,478,824 £9,448.4 414,071 £2,645.5 677,482 £4,277.9 1,064,753 £6,802.8 72% -£37.6 £677.0 South West 1,728,900 £11,927.3 847,161 £5,844.4 703,488 £5,112.2 881,739 £6,082.9 51% £4,631.9 £5,003.4 West 1,742,080 £11,271.6 540,045 £3,494.2 1,007,093 £6,853.9 1,202,035 £7,777.4 69% £2,279.6 £3,753.3 Greater London 8,510,945 £67,270.0 7,624,956 £60,267.2 1,026,176 £2,137.8 885,989 £7,002.8 10% £55,402.2 £68,496.9

Table 57: Impact Of Stratford Development On London Centres

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS IMPACT OF STRATFORD DEVELOPMENT CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices A B C D E F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031

Centre Base No new development (i.e. With development (% difference column C- With cumulative impact of (% difference column E- Population/ expenditure commitment (Stratford B) all development B) growth only) only) commitments

Stratford 129.0 388.0 1,869.1 381.8% 1,799.3 363.8% Streatham 65.1 168.3 168.3 0.0% 146.1 -13.2% Wandsworth 83.9 217.4 217.4 0.0% 198.2 -8.8% Clapham Junction 158.7 414.5 414.6 0.0% 348.3 -16.0% Wimbledon 240.0 606.3 606.5 0.0% 555.9 -8.3% Wembley 26.3 73.2 73.2 0.0% 74.4 1.6% Putney 152.4 391.0 391.0 0.0% 331.8 -15.1% Kensington High Street 256.8 713.2 713.3 0.0% 610.7 -14.4% Hammersmith 150.2 381.5 381.5 0.0% 319.7 -16.2% Sutton 325.5 830.3 830.4 0.0% 783.5 -5.6% Ealing 238.7 605.2 605.2 0.0% 556.5 -8.0% Chiswick 165.5 416.2 416.2 0.0% 355.5 -14.6% Kingston 646.0 1,715.1 1,715.2 0.0% 1,644.8 -4.1% Uxbridge 330.5 843.3 843.4 0.0% 774.1 -8.2% Hounslow 269.0 725.1 725.1 0.0% 669.9 -7.6% Kings Road East 337.9 1,044.3 1,044.4 0.0% 957.1 -8.4% Southall 76.1 212.5 212.5 0.0% 189.4 -10.9% Richmond 196.2 510.1 510.1 0.0% 451.3 -11.5% Kilburn 76.4 206.5 206.4 0.0% 191.8 -7.1% Tooting 186.6 472.2 472.0 0.0% 423.9 -10.2% Edgware 91.8 255.5 255.4 0.0% 244.8 -4.2% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 412.0 411.6 -0.1% 345.3 -16.2% Harrow 308.3 782.2 781.3 -0.1% 732.1 -6.4%

Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031

Croydon 636.5 1,612.0 1,609.2 -0.2% 1,663.0 3.2% Brent Cross 249.7 684.1 682.7 -0.2% 755.4 10.4% Fulham 85.4 242.4 241.5 -0.4% 201.1 -17.1% Brixton 86.0 236.1 235.2 -0.4% 201.6 -14.6% Knightsbridge 842.5 2,395.9 2,382.7 -0.5% 2,211.2 -7.7% West End 4,178.8 12,494.5 12,423.4 -0.6% 11,852.2 -5.1% Camden Town 286.8 830.6 822.6 -1.0% 784.9 -5.5% Bluewater 663.7 1,878.0 1,853.2 -1.3% 1,799.2 -4.2% Bromley 443.8 1,163.2 1,146.3 -1.5% 1,112.5 -4.4% Orpington 82.8 217.9 214.3 -1.6% 211.5 -3.0% Wood Green 299.3 769.3 755.5 -1.8% 738.3 -4.0% Enfield Town 177.5 476.2 467.0 -1.9% 458.0 -3.8% Lakeside 523.6 1,468.2 1,439.7 -1.9% 1,415.0 -3.6% Angel 186.0 513.4 503.1 -2.0% 468.5 -8.8% Peckham 92.2 262.7 257.4 -2.0% 227.0 -13.6% Bexleyheath 246.8 666.4 651.4 -2.2% 631.3 -5.3% Nags Head 107.3 286.4 279.1 -2.5% 266.2 -7.0% Catford 48.8 128.6 124.8 -3.0% 144.9 12.7% Romford 354.9 943.4 914.8 -3.0% 913.3 -3.2% Eltham 109.2 292.9 283.4 -3.3% 272.5 -7.0% Lewisham 248.2 657.9 631.8 -4.0% 611.5 -7.1% Woolwich 187.3 532.5 503.5 -5.4% 544.9 2.3% Walthamstow 263.0 695.6 656.7 -5.6% 658.1 -5.4% Dalston 73.1 200.4 188.7 -5.8% 182.3 -9.0% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 257.8 241.0 -6.5% 240.9 -6.6% Ilford 365.2 1,010.4 939.1 -7.1% 926.8 -8.3% East Ham 100.6 293.2 263.0 -10.3% 254.6 -13.2%

Table 58 Impact Of White City Development On London Centres

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS IMPACT OF WHITE CITY DEVELOPMENT CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices A B C D E F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031 Centre Base No new development (i.e. With development (% difference column C- With cumulative impact of (% difference column E- Population/ expenditure commitment (White City B) all development B) growth only) only) commitments

White City - - 2,390.1 - 2,250.1 -

Ilford 365.2 1,010.4 1,010.4 0.0% 926.8 -8.3% Woolwich 187.3 532.5 532.6 0.0% 544.9 2.3% Stratford 129.0 388.0 388.0 0.0% 1,799.3 363.8% Orpington 82.8 217.9 217.9 0.0% 211.5 -3.0% Walthamstow 263.0 695.6 695.6 0.0% 658.1 -5.4% Eltham 109.2 292.9 292.9 0.0% 272.5 -7.0% Bexleyheath 246.8 666.4 666.2 0.0% 631.3 -5.3% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 257.8 257.7 0.0% 240.9 -6.6% Bromley 443.8 1,163.2 1,162.7 0.0% 1,112.5 -4.4% Bluewater 663.7 1,878.0 1,876.4 -0.1% 1,799.2 -4.2% Lakeside 523.6 1,468.2 1,466.8 -0.1% 1,415.0 -3.6% Romford 354.9 943.4 942.3 -0.1% 913.3 -3.2% Catford 48.8 128.6 128.4 -0.2% 144.9 12.7% East Ham 100.6 293.2 292.5 -0.2% 254.6 -13.2% Lewisham 248.2 657.9 656.2 -0.3% 611.5 -7.1% Enfield Town 177.5 476.2 473.8 -0.5% 458.0 -3.8% Croydon 636.5 1,612.0 1,603.8 -0.5% 1,663.0 3.2% Wood Green 299.3 769.3 764.5 -0.6% 738.3 -4.0% Dalston 73.1 200.4 198.9 -0.7% 182.3 -9.0% Sutton 325.5 830.3 822.0 -1.0% 783.5 -5.6% Peckham 92.2 262.7 259.6 -1.2% 227.0 -13.6% Edgware 91.8 255.5 251.8 -1.4% 244.8 -4.2% West End 4,178.8 12,494.5 12,283.6 -1.7% 11,852.2 -5.1% Streatham 65.1 168.3 164.8 -2.0% 146.1 -13.2%

Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031

Nags Head 107.3 286.4 280.2 -2.2% 266.2 -7.0% Brent Cross 249.7 684.1 669.1 -2.2% 755.4 10.4% Brixton 86.0 236.1 230.8 -2.3% 201.6 -14.6% Angel 186.0 513.4 501.3 -2.4% 468.5 -8.8% Wimbledon 240.0 606.3 590.5 -2.6% 555.9 -8.3% Tooting 186.6 472.2 459.5 -2.7% 423.9 -10.2% Knightsbridge 842.5 2,395.9 2,327.6 -2.8% 2,211.2 -7.7% Camden Town 286.8 830.6 806.3 -2.9% 784.9 -5.5% Kingston 646.0 1,715.1 1,657.7 -3.3% 1,644.8 -4.1% Kings Road East 337.9 1,044.3 1,003.3 -3.9% 957.1 -8.4% Harrow 308.3 782.2 751.0 -4.0% 732.1 -6.4% Uxbridge 330.5 843.3 805.8 -4.4% 774.1 -8.2% Kilburn 76.4 206.5 196.0 -5.1% 191.8 -7.1% Clapham Junction 158.7 414.5 391.9 -5.4% 348.3 -16.0% Wembley 26.3 73.2 68.9 -5.9% 74.4 1.6% Wandsworth 83.9 217.4 204.5 -5.9% 198.2 -8.8% Hounslow 269.0 725.1 681.3 -6.0% 669.9 -7.6% Southall 76.1 212.5 197.6 -7.0% 189.4 -10.9% Richmond 196.2 510.1 473.0 -7.3% 451.3 -11.5% Putney 152.4 391.0 361.0 -7.7% 331.8 -15.1% Ealing 238.7 605.2 550.9 -9.0% 556.5 -8.0% Fulham 85.4 242.4 219.2 -9.6% 201.1 -17.1% Kensington High Street 256.8 713.2 644.5 -9.6% 610.7 -14.4% Chiswick 165.5 416.2 375.6 -9.7% 355.5 -14.6% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 412.0 371.1 -9.9% 345.3 -16.2% Hammersmith 150.2 381.5 338.1 -11.4% 319.7 -16.2%

Table 59: Impact Of Elephant & Castle Development On London Centres

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS IMPACT OF ELEPHANT & CASTLE DEVELOPMENT CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices A B C D E F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031 Centre Base No new development (i.e. With development (% difference column C- With cumulative impact of (% difference column E- Population/ expenditure commitment (Elephant & B) all development B) growth only) Castle only) commitments

Elephant & Castle 19.9 60.1 936.1 1456.8% 841.9 1300.1% Southall 76.1 212.5 212.5 0.0% 189.4 -10.9% Edgware 91.8 255.5 255.6 0.0% 244.8 -4.2% Uxbridge 330.5 843.3 843.5 0.0% 774.1 -8.2% Harrow 308.3 782.2 782.4 0.0% 732.1 -6.4% Brent Cross 249.7 684.1 684.2 0.0% 755.4 10.4% Ealing 238.7 605.2 604.9 0.0% 556.5 -8.0% Hounslow 269.0 725.1 724.7 -0.1% 669.9 -7.6% Bluewater 663.7 1,878.0 1,876.8 -0.1% 1,799.2 -4.2% Lakeside 523.6 1,468.2 1,466.5 -0.1% 1,415.0 -3.6% Romford 354.9 943.4 942.3 -0.1% 913.3 -3.2% Kingston 646.0 1,715.1 1,712.6 -0.1% 1,644.8 -4.1% Wood Green 299.3 769.3 768.0 -0.2% 738.3 -4.0% Orpington 82.8 217.9 217.5 -0.2% 211.5 -3.0% Richmond 196.2 510.1 509.1 -0.2% 451.3 -11.5% Enfield Town 177.5 476.2 475.2 -0.2% 458.0 -3.8% Chiswick 165.5 416.2 415.3 -0.2% 355.5 -14.6% Ilford 365.2 1,010.4 1,008.0 -0.2% 926.8 -8.3% Kilburn 76.4 206.5 205.7 -0.4% 191.8 -7.1% Walthamstow 263.0 695.6 693.1 -0.4% 658.1 -5.4% Bexleyheath 246.8 666.4 663.6 -0.4% 631.3 -5.3% West End 4,178.8 12,494.5 12,440.3 -0.4% 11,852.2 -5.1% Wembley 26.3 73.2 72.9 -0.4% 74.4 1.6%

Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031 Centre Base No new development (i.e. With development (% difference column C- With cumulative impact of (% difference column E- Population/ expenditure commitment (Stratford B) all development B) growth only) only) commitments

Sutton 325.5 830.3 825.8 -0.5% 783.5 -5.6% Knightsbridge 842.5 2,395.9 2,382.8 -0.5% 2,211.2 -7.7% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 257.8 256.2 -0.6% 240.9 -6.6% Bromley 443.8 1,163.2 1,156.2 -0.6% 1,112.5 -4.4% Wimbledon 240.0 606.3 601.3 -0.8% 555.9 -8.3% Nags Head 107.3 286.4 284.0 -0.8% 266.2 -7.0% Hammersmith 150.2 381.5 378.2 -0.9% 319.7 -16.2% Eltham 109.2 292.9 290.4 -0.9% 272.5 -7.0% Croydon 636.5 1,612.0 1,597.3 -0.9% 1,663.0 3.2% East Ham 100.6 293.2 290.2 -1.0% 254.6 -13.2% Stratford 129.0 388.0 383.6 -1.1% 1,799.3 363.8% Camden Town 286.8 830.6 820.8 -1.2% 784.9 -5.5% Woolwich 187.3 532.5 526.2 -1.2% 544.9 2.3% Kings Road East 337.9 1,044.3 1,031.1 -1.3% 957.1 -8.4% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 412.0 406.7 -1.3% 345.3 -16.2% Dalston 73.1 200.4 197.8 -1.3% 182.3 -9.0% Putney 152.4 391.0 385.8 -1.3% 331.8 -15.1% Kensington High Street 256.8 713.2 702.8 -1.5% 610.7 -14.4% Tooting 186.6 472.2 462.6 -2.0% 423.9 -10.2% Angel 186.0 513.4 501.6 -2.3% 468.5 -8.8% Lewisham 248.2 657.9 642.2 -2.4% 611.5 -7.1% Catford 48.8 128.6 125.5 -2.5% 144.9 12.7% Wandsworth 83.9 217.4 211.7 -2.6% 198.2 -8.8% Fulham 85.4 242.4 235.8 -2.7% 201.1 -17.1% Streatham 65.1 168.3 163.2 -3.0% 146.1 -13.2% Clapham Junction 158.7 414.5 402.0 -3.0% 348.3 -16.0% Brixton 86.0 236.1 224.1 -5.1% 201.6 -14.6% Peckham 92.2 262.7 247.5 -5.8% 227.0 -13.6%

100

Table 60: Impact Of Battersea Development On London Centres

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS IMPACT OF BATTERSEA DEVELOPMENT CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices A B C D E F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031 Centre Base No new development (i.e. With development (% difference column C- With cumulative impact of (% difference column E- Population/ expenditure commitment (Battersea B) all development B) growth only) only) commitments

Battersea 11.8 31.9 859.6 2597.5% 761.0 2288.1% Wood Green 299.3 769.3 769.5 0.0% 738.3 -4.0% Dalston 73.1 200.4 200.4 0.0% 182.3 -9.0% Walthamstow 263.0 695.6 695.8 0.0% 658.1 -5.4% Edgware 91.8 255.5 255.6 0.0% 244.8 -4.2% Brent Cross 249.7 684.1 684.1 0.0% 755.4 10.4% Enfield Town 177.5 476.2 476.2 0.0% 458.0 -3.8% Stratford 129.0 388.0 388.0 0.0% 1,799.3 363.8% Orpington 82.8 217.9 217.9 0.0% 211.5 -3.0% Woolwich 187.3 532.5 532.4 0.0% 544.9 2.3% Bexleyheath 246.8 666.4 666.2 0.0% 631.3 -5.3% Ilford 365.2 1,010.4 1,010.2 0.0% 926.8 -8.3% Nags Head 107.3 286.4 286.3 0.0% 266.2 -7.0% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 257.8 257.7 0.0% 240.9 -6.6% Bluewater 663.7 1,878.0 1,877.2 0.0% 1,799.2 -4.2% Angel 186.0 513.4 513.1 -0.1% 468.5 -8.8% Eltham 109.2 292.9 292.7 -0.1% 272.5 -7.0% Lakeside 523.6 1,468.2 1,466.9 -0.1% 1,415.0 -3.6% Romford 354.9 943.4 942.3 -0.1% 913.3 -3.2% Harrow 308.3 782.2 780.5 -0.2% 732.1 -6.4% Bromley 443.8 1,163.2 1,160.2 -0.3% 1,112.5 -4.4% East Ham 100.6 293.2 292.4 -0.3% 254.6 -13.2% Kilburn 76.4 206.5 205.8 -0.3% 191.8 -7.1%

101

Uxbridge 330.5 843.3 839.8 -0.4% 774.1 -8.2% Camden Town 286.8 830.6 827.0 -0.4% 784.9 -5.5% West End 4,178.8 12,494.5 12,436.7 -0.5% 11,852.2 -5.1% Wembley 26.3 73.2 72.7 -0.7% 74.4 1.6% Lewisham 248.2 657.9 653.5 -0.7% 611.5 -7.1% Southall 76.1 212.5 210.8 -0.8% 189.4 -10.9% Catford 48.8 128.6 127.6 -0.8% 144.9 12.7% Knightsbridge 842.5 2,395.9 2,375.8 -0.8% 2,211.2 -7.7% Hounslow 269.0 725.1 717.9 -1.0% 669.9 -7.6% Ealing 238.7 605.2 599.0 -1.0% 556.5 -8.0% Croydon 636.5 1,612.0 1,594.9 -1.1% 1,663.0 3.2% Sutton 325.5 830.3 818.6 -1.4% 783.5 -5.6% Chiswick 165.5 416.2 409.6 -1.6% 355.5 -14.6% Richmond 196.2 510.1 501.6 -1.7% 451.3 -11.5% Kingston 646.0 1,715.1 1,685.0 -1.8% 1,644.8 -4.1% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 412.0 403.5 -2.1% 345.3 -16.2% Peckham 92.2 262.7 257.0 -2.2% 227.0 -13.6% Kings Road East 337.9 1,044.3 1,020.2 -2.3% 957.1 -8.4% Kensington High Street 256.8 713.2 694.0 -2.7% 610.7 -14.4% Wimbledon 240.0 606.3 588.7 -2.9% 555.9 -8.3% Hammersmith 150.2 381.5 369.4 -3.2% 319.7 -16.2% Tooting 186.6 472.2 452.6 -4.1% 423.9 -10.2% Brixton 86.0 236.1 226.2 -4.2% 201.6 -14.6% Streatham 65.1 168.3 161.0 -4.3% 146.1 -13.2% Putney 152.4 391.0 373.8 -4.4% 331.8 -15.1% Fulham 85.4 242.4 230.2 -5.0% 201.1 -17.1% Clapham Junction 158.7 414.5 389.3 -6.1% 348.3 -16.0% Wandsworth 83.9 217.4 203.4 -6.5% 198.2 -8.8%

102

Table 61: Impact Of Brent Cross Development On London Centres

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS IMPACT OF BRENT CROSS DEVELOPMENT CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices A B C D E F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031 Centre Base No new development With development (% difference column With cumulative impact (% difference column (i.e. Population/ commitment (Battersea C-B) of all development E-B) expenditure growth only) only) commitments

Brent Cross 249.7 684.1 826.7 20.9% 755.4 10.4% Orpington 82.8 217.9 217.9 0.0% 211.5 -3.0% Bexleyheath 246.8 666.4 666.4 0.0% 631.3 -5.3% Bromley 443.8 1,163.2 1,163.2 0.0% 1,112.5 -4.4% Lewisham 248.2 657.9 657.9 0.0% 611.5 -7.1% Catford 48.8 128.6 128.6 0.0% 144.9 12.7% Eltham 109.2 292.9 292.9 0.0% 272.5 -7.0% Woolwich 187.3 532.5 532.5 0.0% 544.9 2.3% Peckham 92.2 262.7 262.7 0.0% 227.0 -13.6% Croydon 636.5 1,612.0 1,612.0 0.0% 1,663.0 3.2% Sutton 325.5 830.3 830.3 0.0% 783.5 -5.6% Wimbledon 240.0 606.3 606.3 0.0% 555.9 -8.3% Tooting 186.6 472.2 472.2 0.0% 423.9 -10.2% Streatham 65.1 168.3 168.3 0.0% 146.1 -13.2% Kingston 646.0 1,715.1 1,715.1 0.0% 1,644.8 -4.1% Brixton 86.0 236.1 236.1 0.0% 201.6 -14.6% Wandsworth 83.9 217.4 217.4 0.0% 198.2 -8.8% Clapham Junction 158.7 414.5 414.5 0.0% 348.3 -16.0% Putney 152.4 391.0 391.0 0.0% 331.8 -15.1% Richmond 196.2 510.1 510.1 0.0% 451.3 -11.5% Kensington High Street 256.8 713.2 713.2 0.0% 610.7 -14.4% Chiswick 165.5 416.2 416.2 0.0% 355.5 -14.6% Romford 354.9 943.4 942.5 -0.1% 913.3 -3.2%

103

Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031 Centre Base No new development With development (% difference column With cumulative impact (% difference column (i.e. Population/ commitment (Stratford C-B) of all development E-B) expenditure growth only) only) commitments

Stratford 129.0 388.0 387.6 -0.1% 1,799.3 363.8% East Ham 100.6 293.2 292.9 -0.1% 254.6 -13.2% Ilford 365.2 1,010.4 1,009.4 -0.1% 926.8 -8.3% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 257.8 257.5 -0.1% 240.9 -6.6% Walthamstow 263.0 695.6 694.9 -0.1% 658.1 -5.4% Hounslow 269.0 725.1 724.4 -0.1% 669.9 -7.6% Uxbridge 330.5 843.3 841.6 -0.2% 774.1 -8.2% Kings Road East 337.9 1,044.3 1,042.3 -0.2% 957.1 -8.4% Southall 76.1 212.5 212.1 -0.2% 189.4 -10.9% Hammersmith 150.2 381.5 380.7 -0.2% 319.7 -16.2% Fulham 85.4 242.4 241.9 -0.2% 201.1 -17.1% Ealing 238.7 605.2 603.9 -0.2% 556.5 -8.0% Harrow 308.3 782.2 780.6 -0.2% 732.1 -6.4% Kilburn 76.4 206.5 206.0 -0.2% 191.8 -7.1% Wembley 26.3 73.2 72.8 -0.5% 74.4 1.6% Lakeside 523.6 1,468.2 1,454.9 -0.9% 1,415.0 -3.6% Bluewater 663.7 1,878.0 1,859.3 -1.0% 1,799.2 -4.2% West End 4,178.8 12,494.5 12,307.1 -1.5% 11,852.2 -5.1% Dalston 73.1 200.4 196.4 -2.0% 182.3 -9.0% Enfield Town 177.5 476.2 466.2 -2.1% 458.0 -3.8% Knightsbridge 842.5 2,395.9 2,340.8 -2.3% 2,211.2 -7.7% Camden Town 286.8 830.6 804.0 -3.2% 784.9 -5.5% Wood Green 299.3 769.3 742.4 -3.5% 738.3 -4.0% Nags Head 107.3 286.4 275.2 -3.9% 266.2 -7.0% Edgware 91.8 255.5 245.3 -4.0% 244.8 -4.2% Angel 186.0 513.4 491.8 -4.2% 468.5 -8.8% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 412.0 391.8 -4.9% 345.3 -16.2%

104

Table 62: Cumulative impact of all developments, 2006-2011

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices ABE F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2011 Forecast Turnover 2011 Cumulative Impact 2011 Centre Base No new development (i.e. W ith c um ulativ e im p ac t o f (% difference column E-B) Population/ expenditure all development growth only) c om m itm ents

S tratford 129.0 158.4 745.3 370.5% Catford 48.8 56.5 63.8 12.9% Brent Cross 249.7 294.1 324.6 10.4% Croydon 636.5 737.6 760.7 3.1% W oolwich 187.3 220.4 225.7 2.4% W embley 26.3 30.9 31.5 1.8% Orpington 82.8 95.4 92.6 -3.0% Romford 354.9 416.6 403.3 -3.2% Lakeside 523.6 620.8 598.2 -3.6% Enfield Town 177.5 206.4 198.6 -3.8% W ood Green 299.3 346.5 333.1 -3.9% Kingston 646.0 754.2 723.1 -4.1% Edgware 91.8 108.3 103.8 -4.2% Bluewater 663.7 789.5 756.3 -4.2% Bromley 443.8 514.7 491.8 -4.4% Bexleyheath 246.8 286.9 271.7 -5.3% W est End 4,178.8 5,101.9 4,827.6 -5.4% W althamstow 263.0 306.9 290.2 -5.4% S utton 325.5 376.1 355.3 -5.5% Camden Town 286.8 344.6 324.9 -5.7% Harrow 308.3 355.3 332.8 -6.3% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 104.2 97.5 -6.4% Lewisham 248.2 290.4 270.5 -6.8% Nags Head 107.3 125.1 116.4 -6.9% Eltham 109.2 126.3 117.5 -7.0% Kilburn 76.4 90.2 83.6 -7.3% Hounslow 269.0 314.6 290.3 -7.7% Knightsbridge 842.5 1,009.0 928.2 -8.0% Ilford 365.2 431.7 396.4 -8.2% Uxbridge 330.5 380.7 349.5 -8.2% W imbledon 240.0 276.3 253.1 -8.4% Ealing 238.7 277.2 253.4 -8.6% W andsworth 83.9 97.5 89.0 -8.8% Angel 186.0 219.8 200.3 -8.9% Dalston 73.1 86.1 78.3 -9.0% Kings Road East 337.9 420.0 381.4 -9.2% Tooting 186.6 214.8 192.8 -10.2% S outhall 76.1 88.3 78.6 -11.0% Richmond 196.2 228.8 201.7 -11.9% S treatham 65.1 75.4 65.5 -13.2% East Ham 100.6 119.3 103.4 -13.3% Peckham 92.2 109.6 94.8 -13.5% Brixton 86.0 100.5 85.7 -14.7% Chiswick 165.5 192.9 163.7 -15.1% Putney 152.4 177.0 149.7 -15.4% Kensington High S treet 256.8 309.2 261.4 -15.4% Clapham Junction 158.7 184.3 154.8 -16.0% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 181.2 151.2 -16.5% Hammersmith 150.2 175.2 146.2 -16.6% Fulham 85.4 103.1 84.4 -18.2%

105

Table 63: Cumulative impact of all developments, 2006-2016

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices ABE F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2016 Forecast Turnover 2016 Cumulative Impact 2016 Centre Base No new development (i.e. W ith c um ulativ e im pac t of (% difference column E-B) Population/ expenditure all development growth only) c o m m itm ents

S tratford 129.0 195.6 908.7 364.5% Catford 48.8 66.3 74.8 12.8% Brent Cross 249.7 355.4 392.3 10.4% Croydon 636.5 861.8 889.1 3.2% W oolwich 187.3 263.3 269.5 2.4% W embley 26.3 36.7 37.4 1.7% Orpington 82.8 112.0 108.7 -2.9% Romford 354.9 494.4 478.7 -3.2% Lakeside 523.6 750.7 723.6 -3.6% Enfield Town 177.5 244.4 235.2 -3.8% W ood Green 299.3 405.8 389.9 -3.9% Kingston 646.0 901.1 864.3 -4.1% Edgware 91.8 130.6 125.1 -4.2% Bluewater 663.7 956.7 916.6 -4.2% Bromley 443.8 607.5 580.7 -4.4% Bexleyheath 246.8 341.6 323.6 -5.2% W est End 4,178.8 6,264.6 5,934.7 -5.3% S utton 325.5 442.7 418.3 -5.5% W althamstow 263.0 360.6 340.7 -5.5% Camden Town 286.8 417.8 394.4 -5.6% Harrow 308.3 417.8 391.4 -6.3% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 124.1 116.2 -6.4% Lewisham 248.2 344.4 320.6 -6.9% Eltham 109.2 149.3 138.9 -7.0% Nags Head 107.3 147.5 137.2 -7.0% Kilburn 76.4 107.6 100.0 -7.1% Hounslow 269.0 372.8 344.1 -7.7% Knightsbridge 842.5 1,224.4 1,127.8 -7.9% Uxbridge 330.5 451.0 414.1 -8.2% Ilford 365.2 512.9 470.3 -8.3% W imbledon 240.0 324.8 297.7 -8.4% Ealing 238.7 326.4 298.5 -8.5% W andsworth 83.9 115.4 105.4 -8.7% Kings Road East 337.9 519.2 473.4 -8.8% Angel 186.0 261.6 238.4 -8.9% Dalston 73.1 101.9 92.6 -9.2% Tooting 186.6 251.7 225.9 -10.2% S outhall 76.1 104.9 93.3 -11.0% Richmond 196.2 271.2 239.2 -11.8% S treatham 65.1 88.3 76.7 -13.2% East Ham 100.6 142.1 123.2 -13.3% Peckham 92.2 132.6 114.7 -13.5% Brixton 86.0 119.2 101.7 -14.6% Kensington High S treet 256.8 374.7 318.3 -15.1% Chiswick 165.5 227.7 193.4 -15.1% Putney 152.4 209.1 177.0 -15.4% Clapham Junction 158.7 218.0 183.1 -16.0% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 215.9 180.5 -16.4% Hammersmith 150.2 207.1 172.9 -16.5% Fulham 85.4 125.1 103.0 -17.7%

106

Table 64: Cumulative impact of all developments, 2006-2021

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices ABE F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2021 Forecast Turnover 2021 Cumulative Impact 2021 Centre Base No new development (i.e. W ith c um ulativ e im pac t of (% difference column E-B) Population/ expenditure all development growth only) c o m m itm ents

S tratford 129.0 245.5 1,137.1 363.2% Catford 48.8 81.7 92.1 12.8% Brent Cross 249.7 439.8 485.6 10.4% Croydon 636.5 1,052.7 1,086.1 3.2% W oolwich 187.3 326.2 333.9 2.4% W embley 26.3 45.2 45.9 1.7% Orpington 82.8 137.6 133.6 -2.9% Romford 354.9 610.8 591.4 -3.2% Lakeside 523.6 937.9 904.0 -3.6% Enfield Town 177.5 301.5 290.0 -3.8% W ood Green 299.3 499.4 479.8 -3.9% Kingston 646.0 1,112.7 1,067.4 -4.1% Edgware 91.8 161.5 154.8 -4.2% Bluewater 663.7 1,196.9 1,146.8 -4.2% Bromley 443.8 749.1 716.3 -4.4% Bexleyheath 246.8 423.8 401.6 -5.2% W est End 4,178.8 7,846.8 7,436.6 -5.2% W althamstow 263.0 442.7 418.3 -5.5% S utton 325.5 544.2 514.1 -5.5% Camden Town 286.8 521.5 492.4 -5.6% Harrow 308.3 511.0 478.8 -6.3% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 156.5 146.5 -6.4% Eltham 109.2 184.5 171.7 -6.9% Lewisham 248.2 427.5 397.6 -7.0% Nags Head 107.3 182.4 169.7 -7.0% Kilburn 76.4 132.9 123.4 -7.1% Hounslow 269.0 457.5 422.4 -7.7% Knightsbridge 842.5 1,523.3 1,403.8 -7.8% Uxbridge 330.5 552.1 506.9 -8.2% Ilford 365.2 636.9 583.9 -8.3% W imbledon 240.0 398.5 365.2 -8.3% Ealing 238.7 400.2 366.0 -8.5% Kings Road East 337.9 652.5 596.0 -8.7% W andsworth 83.9 142.3 129.9 -8.7% Angel 186.0 327.1 298.1 -8.9% Dalston 73.1 126.5 114.8 -9.2% Tooting 186.6 308.6 277.0 -10.2% S outhall 76.1 128.9 114.7 -11.0% Richmond 196.2 333.4 294.3 -11.7% S treatham 65.1 108.4 94.1 -13.2% East Ham 100.6 178.7 154.9 -13.3% Peckham 92.2 167.6 145.0 -13.5% Brixton 86.0 148.2 126.6 -14.6% Kensington High S treet 256.8 466.8 397.3 -14.9% Chiswick 165.5 279.6 237.4 -15.1% Putney 152.4 257.4 217.9 -15.3% Clapham Junction 158.7 268.8 225.7 -16.0% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 267.2 223.6 -16.3% Hammersmith 150.2 254.7 212.7 -16.5% Fulham 85.4 155.9 128.7 -17.5%

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Table 65: Cumulative impact of all developments, 2006-2026

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices ABE F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2026 Forecast Turnover 2026 Cumulative Impact 2026 Centre Base No new development (i.e. W ith c um ulativ e im pac t of (% difference column E-B) Population/ expenditure all development growth only) c o m m itm ents

S tratford 129.0 304.7 1,412.3 363.6% Catford 48.8 101.0 113.9 12.7% Brent Cross 249.7 543.9 600.5 10.4% Croydon 636.5 1,288.8 1,329.7 3.2% W oolwich 187.3 411.2 420.9 2.4% W embley 26.3 56.6 57.6 1.7% Orpington 82.8 171.4 166.3 -2.9% Romford 354.9 752.7 728.8 -3.2% Lakeside 523.6 1,165.4 1,123.3 -3.6% Enfield Town 177.5 375.3 361.0 -3.8% W ood Green 299.3 613.2 588.8 -4.0% Kingston 646.0 1,369.7 1,313.9 -4.1% Edgware 91.8 201.2 192.8 -4.2% Bluewater 663.7 1,490.9 1,428.5 -4.2% Bromley 443.8 924.1 883.8 -4.4% W est End 4,178.8 9,818.5 9,310.8 -5.2% Bexleyheath 246.8 526.6 499.1 -5.2% W althamstow 263.0 546.6 516.9 -5.4% Camden Town 286.8 651.3 615.3 -5.5% S utton 325.5 665.8 628.7 -5.6% Harrow 308.3 625.2 585.7 -6.3% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 198.4 185.6 -6.5% Eltham 109.2 229.6 213.6 -6.9% Lewisham 248.2 524.1 487.3 -7.0% Nags Head 107.3 225.6 209.7 -7.0% Kilburn 76.4 164.0 152.4 -7.1% Hounslow 269.0 568.9 525.4 -7.6% Knightsbridge 842.5 1,894.0 1,746.9 -7.8% Uxbridge 330.5 675.6 620.3 -8.2% Ilford 365.2 792.8 727.1 -8.3% Ealing 238.7 486.2 445.8 -8.3% W imbledon 240.0 486.6 446.0 -8.3% Kings Road East 337.9 817.4 748.0 -8.5% W andsworth 83.9 174.1 158.9 -8.8% Angel 186.0 405.8 370.0 -8.8% Dalston 73.1 157.1 142.7 -9.1% Tooting 186.6 377.8 339.2 -10.2% S outhall 76.1 162.7 144.9 -10.9% Richmond 196.2 408.5 360.9 -11.6% S treatham 65.1 133.4 115.8 -13.2% East Ham 100.6 225.7 195.9 -13.2% Peckham 92.2 207.5 179.4 -13.5% Brixton 86.0 184.6 157.6 -14.6% Kensington High S treet 256.8 572.9 489.1 -14.6% Chiswick 165.5 337.7 287.6 -14.8% Putney 152.4 314.2 266.3 -15.2% Clapham Junction 158.7 330.0 277.2 -16.0% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 328.7 275.3 -16.2% Hammersmith 150.2 308.6 258.2 -16.3% Fulham 85.4 192.6 159.3 -17.3%

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Table 66: Cumulative impact of all developments, 2006-2031

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices ABE F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031 C entre Base No new development (i.e. W ith c um u la tiv e im p a c t o f (% difference column E-B) Population/ expenditure all developm ent growth only) c o m m itm ents

S tratford 129.0 388.0 1,799.3 363.8% C atford 48.8 128.6 144.9 12.7% Brent Cross 249.7 684.1 755.4 10.4% C roydon 636.5 1,612.0 1,663.0 3.2% W oolwich 187.3 532.5 544.9 2.3% Wembley 26.373.274.41.6% Orpington 82.8 217.9 211.5 -3.0% Romford 354.9 943.4 913.3 -3.2% Lakeside 523.6 1,468.2 1,415.0 -3.6% Enfield Town 177.5 476.2 458.0 -3.8% W ood G reen 299.3 769.3 738.3 -4.0% Kingston 646.0 1,715.1 1,644.8 -4.1% Bluewater 663.7 1,878.0 1,799.2 -4.2% Edgware 91.8 255.5 244.8 -4.2% Bromley 443.8 1,163.2 1,112.5 -4.4% W est End 4,178.8 12,494.5 11,852.2 -5.1% Bexleyheath 246.8 666.4 631.3 -5.3% W althamstow 263.0 695.6 658.1 -5.4% C amden Town 286.8 830.6 784.9 -5.5% S utton 325.5 830.3 783.5 -5.6% Harrow 308.3 782.2 732.1 -6.4% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 257.8 240.9 -6.6% Eltham 109.2 292.9 272.5 -7.0% Nags Head 107.3 286.4 266.2 -7.0% Lewisham 248.2 657.9 611.5 -7.1% Kilburn 76.4 206.5 191.8 -7.1% Hounslow 269.0 725.1 669.9 -7.6% Knightsbridge 842.5 2,395.9 2,211.2 -7.7% Ealing 238.7 605.2 556.5 -8.0% Uxbridge 330.5 843.3 774.1 -8.2% Ilford 365.2 1,010.4 926.8 -8.3% W imbledon 240.0 606.3 555.9 -8.3% Kings Road East 337.9 1,044.3 957.1 -8.4% Angel 186.0 513.4 468.5 -8.8% W andsworth 83.9 217.4 198.2 -8.8% Dalston 73.1 200.4 182.3 -9.0% Tooting 186.6 472.2 423.9 -10.2% S outhall 76.1 212.5 189.4 -10.9% Richmond 196.2 510.1 451.3 -11.5% East Ham 100.6 293.2 254.6 -13.2% S treatham 65.1 168.3 146.1 -13.2% Peckham 92.2 262.7 227.0 -13.6% Kensington High S treet 256.8 713.2 610.7 -14.4% C hiswick 165.5 416.2 355.5 -14.6% Brixton 86.0 236.1 201.6 -14.6% Putney 152.4 391.0 331.8 -15.1% C lapham Junction 158.7 414.5 348.3 -16.0% Hammersmith 150.2 381.5 319.7 -16.2% Queensway/Westbourne G rove 154.0 412.0 345.3 -16.2% Fulham 85.4 242.4 201.1 -17.1%

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8 CAPACITY, SALES DENSITY AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

Introduction 8.1 A key part of this study is an assessment of the adequacy, or otherwise, of comparison goods retail capacity provision in London. In order to access the adequacy of future capacity in London, as well as having a view of future demand growth, we need to be able to assess both the current level of capacity15 and potential future increases in capacity. This comprises two parts: the creation of additional retail space and the increase in efficiency of existing retail space (sales densities), which we refer to as productivity growth.

8.2 Another reason for being interested in productivity growth is the potential relationship between productivity growth, retail demand growth and the vitality of retail centres. If productivity grows by, say, 2.5 per cent per annum, but retail spending is only growing by 2.0 per cent per annum, there will be increasing excess of capacity over sales. This will inevitably manifest itself in increased shop closures and vacant units. This is also a concern of this study alongside the adequacy of future retail space provision.

8.3 Projecting potential sales densities and, hence, capacity is not a straightforward procedure. On the one hand, considerable uncertainty surrounds the accuracy of data on past trends, while on the other hand it is not clear if past trends are a good guide to future changes. This is partly because past trends may not be sustainable and partly because past trends were themselves a response to earlier planning regimes which may not be relevant to the future. Our response to these uncertainties has been to adopt a scenario approach where the space requirements are calculated for a wide range of possible future sales densities.

Defining capacity – what is retail space productivity/efficiency growth? 8.4 We define retail space productivity growth, or the rate of change of the efficiency of retail floorspace (as distinct from labour productivity, which refers to the changing amount of labour required to support a given amount of retail sales), as the rate of change of sales densities in real terms (i.e. after allowing for inflation) over time.

15 Capacity in this chapter always refers to turnover capacity: that is, the turnover a centre would be expected to achieve if every retail unit operated at benchmark sales density levels – see 8.4.

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8.5 Aggregate sales densities can change for a number of reasons. One is the usual economists’ definition of productivity change, whereby retailers get better at using gross floorspace and manage to sell more goods for a given amount of space though a combination of better management of stocks, more efficient floor layouts, getting more customers through the door and converting more of the footfall into sales. This process will be accelerated as new floorspace, which may have a more modern and more efficient design, replaces old.

8.6 Sales densities have also been able to increase by making existing floorspace available for more time, either though Sunday opening or through longer opening hours on other days of the week.

8.7 Another way of increasing efficiency is to change the use of the space. Electrical stores, for example, have far higher sales densities relative to furniture stores. Consequently a shift in the mix of the use of retail floorspace from furniture stores to electrical stores would increase aggregate efficiency and would show up as productivity growth.

8.8 A variation on this is a change in the mix of goods sold within stores. If a store can sell higher value (rather than higher price) goods it will increase its real sales density. Alternatively, if items get smaller (as with many electronic goods), more can be sold from a given amount of space and this will also increase sales densities and add to productivity growth. Any productivity growth that we observe will be a combination of these three effects.

8.9 It is important not to confuse labour productivity and floorspace productivity. Not only are they measures of different things, they are likely to move in the opposite direction. Greater sales densities (i.e. greater floorspace productivity) can involve a greater labour input and, hence, lower labour productivity. Floorspace productivity is the focus of our attention here because of its crucial importance in the planning context to the determination of future floorspace requirements.

8.10 Because of this inherent uncertainty in projecting productivity, we have projected capacity on the basis of three different assumptions (please refer to the appendices for further details):

A High case of 2.8 per cent productivity growth per annum. A Moderate case of 2.2 per cent productivity growth per annum. A Low case of 1.5 per cent productivity growth.

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8.11 The High case gives an idea of what might happen if some of the rapid increases in productivity of recent years turn out to be sustainable rather than transitory. 8.12 The Moderate case is consistent with what would happen if much of the historical trends of the past 10 years had been due to one-offs (such as Sunday trading, longer opening hours etc.)

8.13 The Low case shows what would happen if we accept historic URPI assumptions.

Capacity in 2006 8.14 In order to assess future capacity we need to have an estimate of current/2006 capacity as well as future productivity growth. There are no official estimates of either capacity or spare capacity by retail centre (or at any other level), so we need to come up with our own view. To do this, we have taken each of the 300+ centres included within this study and interrogated their existing floorspace provision and estimated expenditure turnovers. Individual centre information is included within the appendices.

Future capacity and spare capacity 8.15 Once we have an estimate of the degree of spare capacity and spending by centre, it is relatively easy to estimate capacity for the existing space in the centre.16 Note that capacity here is measured in terms of the value (in £m at 2003 prices) of comparison goods sales that a centre can support. We then apply the productivity growth of each of the three scenarios referred to in 8.10 to this figure. Capacity can also increase by creating new retail space. This is represented by the schemes discussed in Stage 2B of the project and these can also be easily included in estimates of future capacity. Once we have projections of future capacity and future spending, it is straightforward to derive projections of future spare capacity and space requirements.

Space requirements (Timeline scenario) 8.16 By making further assumptions about the sales density of new retail space, the level of spare capacity can be translated into real world space requirements for individual centres and for boroughs. Again, because of considerable uncertainty, a number of scenarios have been tested to ensure sensitivity testing.

16 Capacity = Turnover / (1 – Spare capacity rate).

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8.17 Tables 67 to 71 provide a borough level breakdown of gross total comparison goods floorspace need for five year increments to 2031. Table 67: Gross Total Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (2006-2011) – Timeline scenario, fixed productivity growth, assumes centre specific capacity for additional developments

Productivity growth Sub-region Borough 1.50% 2.20% 2.80% North Barnet 22,520 12,696 4,591 Camden 8,069 5,116 2,679 Enfield 8,326 4,296 972 Hackney 5,449 3,207 1,358 Haringey 9,875 4,962 909 Islington 6,754 3,870 1,491 Westminster 88,101 46,270 11,758 Total 149,093 80,418 23,758 North East City Of London 15,630 10,436 6,151 Tower Hamlets 15,916 11,716 8,251 Newham 27,160 18,443 11,251 Waltham Forest 7,480 4,310 1,696 Redbridge 14,633 8,852 4,083 Havering 15,104 8,640 3,308 Barking and Dagenham 4,649 2,723 1,133 Total 100,573 65,121 35,873 South East Southwark 19,274 12,771 7,407 Lewisham 8,257 4,563 1,516 Greenwich 10,318 6,145 2,701 Bexley 6,969 3,620 857 Bromley 14,220 6,957 966 Total 59,039 34,057 13,446 South West Croydon 24,774 12,763 2,854 Lambeth 6,360 3,542 1,216 Merton 5,654 2,564 15 Sutton 8,855 4,390 707 Kingston upon Thames 16,837 9,451 3,356 Richmond upon Thames 8,127 4,588 1,669 Wandsworth 13,337 6,958 1,696 Total 83,944 44,256 11,513 Hammersmith and West Fulham 5,484 3,068 1,074 Brent 11,172 6,351 2,374 Ealing 7,998 4,128 935 Harrow 6,950 3,167 46 Hillingdon 11,822 5,415 128 Hounslow 10,083 5,770 2,211 Kensington and Chelsea 30,574 20,906 12,930 Total 84,084 48,804 19,698

London Total 476,732 272,656 104,288 CAZ 97,148 52,976 16,534

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Table 68: Gross Total Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (2006-2016) – Timeline scenario, fixed productivity growth, assumes centre specific capacity for additional developments Productivity growth Sub-region Borough 1.50% 2.20% 2.80% North Barnet 57,538 35,897 18,602 Camden 18,676 12,165 6,962 Enfield 19,322 10,668 3,752 Hackney 11,780 6,952 3,094 Haringey 14,136 3,661 -4,709 Islington 14,951 8,736 3,770 Westminster 198,460 105,111 30,511 Total 334,862 183,191 61,983 North East City Of London 34,670 23,193 14,021 Tower Hamlets 33,544 24,114 16,579 Newham 59,112 39,851 24,458 Waltham Forest 16,394 9,571 4,117 Redbridge 26,487 13,990 4,003 Havering 34,188 20,212 9,042 Barking and Dagenham 10,147 5,994 2,675 Total 214,542 136,924 74,896 South East Southwark 43,982 29,555 18,026 Lewisham 19,029 11,051 4,675 Greenwich 23,930 14,819 7,538 Bexley 17,033 9,780 3,983 Bromley 33,576 18,011 5,572 Total 137,550 83,215 39,794 South West Croydon 54,753 29,145 8,681 Lambeth 14,640 8,549 3,680 Merton 13,628 7,023 1,745 Sutton 21,043 11,456 3,794 Kingston upon Thames 40,743 24,631 11,755 Richmond upon Thames 18,562 10,912 4,797 Wandsworth 31,299 17,565 6,588 Total 194,670 109,280 41,041 Hammersmith and West Fulham 12,462 7,248 3,079 Brent 25,596 15,159 6,819 Ealing 18,460 10,155 3,518 Harrow 16,470 8,372 1,900 Hillingdon 29,438 15,628 4,592 Hounslow 22,653 13,338 5,893 Kensington and Chelsea 68,674 47,134 29,921 Total 193,753 117,033 55,722

London Total 1,075,378 629,645 273,435 CAZ 217,917 119,276 40,446

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Table 69: Gross Total Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (2006-2021) – Timeline scenario, fixed productivity growth, assumes centre specific capacity for additional developments Productivity growth Sub-region Borough 1.50% 2.20% 2.80% North Barnet 104,967 68,404 40,102 Camden 33,935 22,837 14,247 Enfield 37,710 23,146 11,872 Hackney 22,883 14,676 8,323 Haringey 44,376 26,750 13,106 Islington 29,203 18,642 10,468 Westminster 424,381 264,580 140,881 Total 697,455 439,035 238,998 North East City Of London 64,282 44,454 29,106 Tower Hamlets 58,850 42,465 29,781 Newham 107,307 74,179 48,536 Waltham Forest 30,833 19,355 10,470 Redbridge 54,526 33,349 16,956 Havering 53,248 29,630 11,348 Barking and Dagenham 20,193 13,083 7,580 Total 389,239 256,516 153,779 South East Southwark 82,161 57,144 37,780 Lewisham 37,253 23,702 13,211 Greenwich 45,036 29,532 17,530 Bexley 33,443 21,138 11,613 Bromley 66,703 40,503 20,222 Total 264,597 172,018 100,356 South West Croydon 106,437 63,608 30,455 Lambeth 28,698 18,336 10,316 Merton 27,232 16,158 7,586 Sutton 41,322 25,196 12,713 Kingston upon Thames 76,253 49,012 27,926 Richmond upon Thames 34,851 21,972 12,002 Wandsworth 60,794 37,649 19,732 Total 375,586 231,931 120,731 Hammersmith and West Fulham 23,730 14,934 8,127 Brent 47,787 30,221 16,624 Ealing 35,682 21,747 10,960 Harrow 32,798 19,255 8,771 Hillingdon 57,674 34,542 16,636 Hounslow 42,165 26,515 14,400 Kensington and Chelsea 120,747 83,880 55,341 Total 360,584 231,094 130,859

London Total 2,087,461 1,330,595 744,723 CAZ 459,395 290,264 159,343

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Table 70: Gross Total Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (2006-2026) – Timeline scenario, fixed productivity growth, assumes centre specific capacity for additional developments

Productivity growth Sub-region Borough 1.50% 2.20% 2.80% North Barnet 160,614 105,531 64,232 Camden 50,889 34,162 21,621 Enfield 60,115 38,143 21,668 Hackney 35,831 23,407 14,093 Haringey 61,658 35,302 15,541 Islington 44,989 29,116 17,214 Westminster 684,903 441,933 259,763 Total 1,098,999 707,594 414,133 North East City Of London 96,991 66,795 44,155 Tower Hamlets 71,383 61,759 42,957 Newham 50,505 111,983 74,103 Waltham Forest 47,631 30,426 17,525 Redbridge 87,475 55,478 31,489 Havering 87,680 52,294 25,762 Barking and Dagenham 32,482 21,583 13,412 Total 474,147 400,317 249,403 South East Southwark 74,331 84,400 55,938 Lewisham 33,261 36,551 21,343 Greenwich 70,437 46,847 29,161 Bexley 52,579 33,988 20,050 Bromley 55,727 66,372 36,859 Total 286,335 268,158 163,351 South West Croydon 110,457 93,245 45,299 Lambeth 44,504 28,890 17,182 Merton 42,542 26,057 13,698 Sutton 63,904 39,862 21,835 Kingston upon Thames 66,296 75,439 44,806 Richmond upon Thames 53,779 34,463 19,980 Wandsworth 93,270 58,754 32,875 Total 474,753 356,710 195,675 Hammersmith and West Fulham 35,154 22,156 12,410 Brent 74,460 48,004 28,169 Ealing 56,709 35,739 20,016 Harrow 51,341 31,203 16,105 Hillingdon 90,747 56,172 30,248 Hounslow 51,900 28,290 10,588 Kensington and Chelsea 177,885 122,210 80,468 Total 538,195 343,773 198,003

London Total 2,872,429 2,076,553 1,220,566 CAZ 736,098 478,818 285,919

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Table 71: Gross Total Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (2006-2031) – Timeline scenario, fixed productivity growth, assumes centre specific capacity for additional developments Productivity growth Sub-region Borough 1.50% 2.20% 2.80% North Barnet 235,187 155,704 97,983 Camden 73,239 49,149 31,655 Enfield 90,350 58,567 35,486 Hackney 53,803 35,694 22,543 Haringey 96,151 58,308 30,826 Islington 66,517 43,607 26,969 Westminster 1,025,131 672,749 416,849 Total 1,640,378 1,073,776 662,311 North East City Of London 140,823 96,785 64,805 Tower Hamlets 109,741 72,860 46,077 Newham 127,028 164,844 110,971 Waltham Forest 71,424 46,518 28,431 Redbridge 132,335 85,921 52,216 Havering 132,436 81,872 45,152 Barking and Dagenham 49,238 33,195 21,545 Total 763,025 581,994 369,196 South East Southwark 128,887 121,641 81,499 Lewisham 60,297 31,098 33,464 Greenwich 105,332 70,826 45,767 Bexley 77,908 51,057 31,557 Bromley 108,095 51,440 60,306 Total 480,520 326,061 252,594 South West Croydon 191,986 100,507 34,074 Lambeth 66,240 43,614 27,183 Merton 63,096 39,588 22,516 Sutton 93,763 59,494 34,609 Kingston upon Thames 118,505 60,039 17,582 Richmond upon Thames 79,165 51,413 31,259 Wandsworth 136,966 87,639 51,817 Total 749,720 442,293 219,041 Hammersmith and West Fulham 50,226 31,868 18,537 Brent 110,715 72,471 44,698 Ealing 86,363 55,903 33,784 Harrow 76,258 47,570 26,737 Hillingdon 135,136 85,627 49,673 Hounslow 84,854 50,629 25,774 Kensington and Chelsea 252,643 172,404 114,134 Total 796,194 516,471 313,337

London Total 4,429,838 2,940,596 1,816,478 CAZ 1,097,827 724,460 453,321

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8.18 Table 72 summarises, for the sub-regions and for London as a whole, all of the various sub-scenarios and sensitivity tests that have been run for the Timeline scenario. These correspond to the different assumptions about productivity growth, and assumptions about the sales density of new space.

Table 72: Gross Total Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements – Timeline scenario, 2006 – 2031- London summary

Space required Assumptions: (million square metres)

8.19 As can be seen, alternative sets of assumptions produce some very different conclusions in terms of space requirements. Our view is that a productivity growth rate of 2.2 per cent per annum for all centres is the most appropriate.

8.20 We find that the need for new floorspace is very sensitive to assumptions made about retail space productivity growth (i.e. the sustainable rate of increase of sales densities of both existing and new space) and to assumptions about sales densities for new space.

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total requirement within Greater London of an additional 1 million square metres gross in 2016. When developments in the planning pipeline are taken into account, the ‘net’ additional requirement is 0.48 million square metres gross in 2016 (See Appendix 11).

8.21 An assumption of productivity growth of 1.5 per cent per annum is commonly used in retail planning studies. However, we consider that this figure is based on out-of-date information and that more recent data indicates underlying productivity growth of 2.2 per cent per annum since the mid-eighties. We have also run scenarios on a 2.8 per cent productivity assumption as a higher case.

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8.22 Reducing estimates of space requirements, by using the 2.2 per cent productivity assumption, may appear to diminish the scope for regeneration opportunities that arise through new retail developments. This is not necessarily the case. A lack of need for net additions to space does not preclude a need for gross additions (i.e. replacement for derelict or otherwise unwanted space). Regeneration can be achieved through consolidation and restructuring and not just through expansion. This can lead to the focus moving towards the increased attractiveness of centres and not just increased size.

8.23 A detailed overview of the ‘net’ additional floorspace requirements for each borough is provided in the appendices (i.e the additional floorspace need over and above the developments contained in the pipeline).

8.24 Within Appendix 11 is a full breakdown of the ‘net’ additional floorspace requirements by borough and within Appendix 12 is a further breakdown of ‘net’ additional floorspace requirements by town centre.

8.25 The ‘net’ additional floorspace requirements have been calculated using the pipeline development information contained within Appendix 9. For each of the 5 year increments between 2006 and 2031 the additional floorspace contained within the development pipeline has been factored into the gravity modelling process to predict the changes in consumer behaviour likely to occur upon the completion of these schemes. The ‘gravitational pull’ of individual retail centres will be affected by the changing quantities of comparison floorspace and hence the flow of comparison goods expenditure will alter dependent upon a centre’s growth in relation to its alternate competing destinations. As the quantum of comparison floorspace enlarges within a centre due to its pipeline development commitments, it can more readily absorb the likely growth in comparison goods expenditure and attract spend away from less attractive destinations. The ‘net’ additional floorspace requirements for this centre, over and above the pipeline, will therefore diminish as trading capacity is reached. In addition, the ‘net’ additional floorspace requirements for competing centres impacted by the pipeline development will also reduce as comparison goods expenditure is diverted away and absorbed by the new scheme.

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9 LONDON-REST OF THE SOUTH EAST (ROSE) INTERACTION

Figure 15: London-Rest of South East region, as covered by RPG9

9.1 This project is linked to a wider assessment of retail need and provision across the whole of South East England and part of the East. In calculating London’s comparison goods floorspace needs and assessing the capacity of proposed development to accommodate them, Experian has taken into account expenditure flows in both directions across the London boundary. The gravity model is a live model built upon consumers’ stated and observed shopping patterns. It therefore factors in the interaction between centres, regardless of their geography. Consumer and expenditure flows both ways across the London boundary are implicit in the model.

9.2 Diversion from Greater London to the South East is already a major sales driver for centres such as Bluewater and Lakeside and, to a lesser degree, town centres such as Reading and Guildford. In each case, it is possible to assess and quantify this diversion. Experience shows that only the very largest developments impinge significantly on centres in the capital. For this reason, it is sensible to restrict developments to those over 30,000m2 in the South East into the wider gravity modelling exercise. At this stage no such developments have been incorporated in the analysis.

9.3 Centres outside Greater London exclude day trip tourism, which in some cases here is believed to contribute significantly to a centre's turnover.

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Only regular shopping trips, overnight tourism and international tourism is included, hence the apparently low expenditure from within Greater London to Milton Keynes, for example, which would be classified for the purposes of this project as day trip tourism. These figures are backed up by Experian's shopper surveys, which collect only regular shopping patterns and exclude occasional 'tourist' trips by the wording of the questions.

Spending in the Rest Of South East (RoSE) region 9.4 The following tables show the projected expenditure and growth within RoSE and compare it with London as a whole as well as those parts of London that fall within RoSE. The total volume of spend is comparable for both comparison and convenience goods. The proportional increase in spend is projected to be slightly lower than the equivalent growth in Greater London for both.

Table 73: Annual total resident spend on comparison goods: RoSE and London compared (£bn.) Average annual 2006 2031 growth 2006-31, % London 23.21 67.27 4.3 South East 30.80 88.37 4.3 Eastern England 6.11 18.58 4.5 Greater South East 60.01 174.2 4.3

Table 74: Annual total resident spend on convenience goods: RoSE and London compared (£bn.) Average annual 2006 2031 growth 2006-31, % London 11.84 17.32 1.5 South East 17.32 25.74 1.6 Eastern England 3.45 5.43 1.8 Greater South East 32.61 48.49 1.6

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Table 75: Annual total resident spend on other goods: RoSE and London compared (£bn.) Average annual 2006 2031 growth 2006-31, % London 53.86 75.98 1.4 South East 66.50 93.03 1.4 Eastern England 11.64 16.17 1.3 Greater South East 132.00 185.18 1.4

RoSE centre comparison floorspace and expenditure estimates, 2006 9.5 The following tables include an estimate of how much trade comes from within Greater London, excluding spend generated by commuter and day tourism trips. Lakeside and Bluewater are the retail destinations most dependent on London located outside the boundary, where their level of attractiveness and lack of competing out-of-town offer within the M25 create a high level of leakage.

Table 76: Top 20 retail centres in RoSE by floorspace (2006) Centre Goad Estimated Comparison estimate of comparison goods total goods expenditure comparison turnover, £m. from within goods London floorspace, sq. m Southampton 240,890 £1,078 0.0% Norwich 217,210 £1,115 0.0% Brighton 184,610 £940 0.0% Reading 183,740 £1,031 2.0% Milton Keynes 147,060 £870 0.0% Bluewater 140,600 £1,187 33.0% Peterborough 138,320 £630 0.0% Lakeside 135,410 £328 28.6% Retail Park Watford 131,820 £756 20.3% Ipswich 131,570 £658 0.0% Lakeside 127,980 £886 32.1% Maidstone 124,460 £669 2.0% Southend 110,320 £445 0.0% Chelmsford 107,950 £498 0.0%

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Centre Goad Estimated Comparison estimate of comparison goods total goods expenditure comparison turnover, £m. from within goods London floorspace, sq. m Luton 107,430 £437 1.0% Basildon 106,060 £501 1.1% Worthing 106,000 £536 0.0% Eastbourne 103,760 £469 0.0% Tunbridge 100,720 £536 1.0% Wells Colchester 99,120 £585 0.0%

Table 77: Top 20 retail centres in RoSE by expenditure (2006) Centre Estimated Goad Comparison comparison estimate of goods goods comparison expenditure turnover, £m. goods total from within floorspace, London sq. m Bluewater £1,187 140,600 33.0% Norwich £1,115 217,210 0.0% Southampton £1,078 240,890 0.0% Reading £1,031 183,740 2.0% Brighton £940 184,610 0.0% Lakeside £886 127,980 32.1% Milton Keynes £870 147,060 0.0% Watford £756 131,820 20.3% Guildford £684 98,940 2.0% Oxford £682 88,330 0.0% Maidstone £669 124,460 2.0% Ipswich £658 131,570 0.0% Peterborough £630 138,320 0.0% Crawley £597 94,800 2.0% Portsmouth £589 78,690 0.0% Colchester £585 99,120 0.0% Cambridge £577 75,820 0.0% Tunbridge £536 100,720 1.0% Wells Worthing £536 106,000 0.0% Basildon £501 106,060 1.1%

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Table 78: RoSE 2006-16 comparison goods expenditure estimates in constant 2003 prices (base scenario)

Centre name 2006 estimated turnover, £m 2016 projected turnover, £m

Bluewater 1,187 1,252 Norwich 1,115 1,272 Southampton 1,078 1,235 Reading 1,031 1,114 Milton Keynes 870 1,119 Brighton 940 1,057 Lakeside 886 970 Oxford 682 937 Portsmouth 589 866 Maidstone 669 811 Watford 756 825 Crawley 597 829 Guildford 684 796 Peterborough 630 804 Ipswich 658 754 Cambridge 577 734 Colchester 585 672 Bracknell 362 636 Tunbridge Wells 536 615 High Wycombe 446 615

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10 ONGOING ANALYSIS

10.1 The next phase of Experian's work with the GLA consists of sensitivity testing various development scenarios to quantify their impact on overall comparison floorspace need. Results from running the additional scenarios will be summarised in a standard set of tables.

11 FURTHER INFORMATION

11.1 For any further information regarding this report please contact:

www.business-strategies.co.uk/propertyconsultancy

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APPENDIX 1 - MOSAIC

Mosaic UK

A1.1 Our Mosaic classification system categorises all UK households and neighbourhoods into 62 distinct 'lifestyle types', which comprehensively describe their socio-economic and socio-cultural behaviour. More than 400 data variables have been used to build Mosaic and many of these are key drivers of housing demand (demographics, economic activity, occupations and household composition). The Illustration below highlights the variables that are used to derive Mosaic.

A1.2 The data is drawn from Census 2001 (approx 54%) and supplemented with Experian’s own Consumer Segmentation Database. The Consumer Segmentation Database provides coverage of all the UK’s 46 million adult residents and 23 million households from sources including the Electoral Roll, consumer credit activity, Post Office Address Files, Council Tax information and ONS local area statistics.

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A1.3 Each type and group is descriptively named, for example UK Mosaic type 4 is labelled 'Golden Empty Nesters', type 23 is labelled 'Industrial Grit', whilst type 41 is labelled ‘Families on Benefits’. A Mosaic type is assigned to each of the 1.6 million postcodes in the UK, allowing us to build a powerful picture about household characteristics. These in turn are aggregated to broader groups (described below), which we will use for this study.

Table 1: Mosaic UK groups Symbols of People with rewarding careers who live in sought-after A Success locations, affording luxuries and premium quality products. Families with focus on career and home, mostly younger B Happy Families age groups now raising children. Families who are successfully established in comfortable, Suburban C mature homes. Children are growing up and finances are Comfort easier. People living in close-knit inner city and manufacturing Ties of D town communities, responsible workers with Community unsophisticated tastes. Urban Young, single and mostly well educated, these people are E Intelligence cosmopolitan in tastes and liberal in attitudes. People who are struggling to achieve rewards and are Welfare F mostly reliant on the council for accommodation and Borderline benefits. Municipal Families on lower incomes who often live in large council G Dependency estates where there is little owner-occupation. Blue Collar People who though not well educated are practical and H Enterprise enterprising and may well have exercised their right to buy. Twilight Elderly people subsisting on meagre incomes in council I Subsistence accommodation. Grey Independent pensioners living in their own homes who are J Perspectives relatively active in their lifestyles. People living in rural areas where country life has not been K Rural Isolation influenced by urban consumption patterns.

A1.4 The Mosaic profile of residents living within each of the London boroughs has been calculated to help infer local spending levels. Figure 1 indicates the proportion of residents who fall within high, moderate and low spending Mosaic groups.

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Figure 1: Residential Mosaic Profile Of The London Boroughs (2006)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Higher Spending Mosaic Groups Moderate Spending Mosaic Groups Lower Spending Mosiac Groups

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APPENDIX 2 - LIST OF CENTRES INCLUDED WITHIN THE ANALYSIS

Generation of the list

A2.1 The aim here was to generate a list of retail destinations that covered the significant majority of comparison goods expenditure from within London. This list includes centres identified in the London Plan list, as well as out-of-town malls, shopping parks, retail parks, neighbourhood centres, superstores and centres which lie outside London but absorb London residents' expenditure.

A2.2 The International, Metropolitan, Major and District centres listed in the London Plan were initially linked to distinct Goad plans. Some manipulation of individual Goad centre boundaries, in conjunction with the Greater London Authority (GLA), was required to match this as closely as possible to London Plan centres: for example, the West End, Fulham Road and Chelsea.

A2.3 The following additional destinations were added to this list:

6. All remaining Goad town centres within Greater London. 7. All retail parks covered by Goad with a high street shopping element. 8. Convenience Superstores 9. CAZ frontages

A2.4 This end list of centres was merged with Experian's retail centre list from outside Greater London, in order to treat border areas as accurately as possible and gauge the level of expenditure flows into and out of London.

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Table 2: List of centres

Centre Name Category Borough Source Barking & Dagenham Major centres Barking and Dagenham London Plan Chadwell Heath District centres Barking and Dagenham London Plan Dagenham & Heathway District centres Barking and Dagenham London Plan Beacontree Heath Additional Barking and Dagenham GOAD Centre Dagenham - Gorsebrook Additional Barking and Dagenham GOAD Centre Barking - Abbey Road Retail Park Additional Barking and Dagenham GOAD Retail Park Edgware Major centres Barnet London Plan Brent Street District centres Barnet London Plan Burnt Oak District centres Barnet London Plan Chipping Barnet District centres Barnet London Plan Church End, Finchley District centres Barnet London Plan Colindale/The Hyde District centres Barnet London Plan East Finchley District centres Barnet London Plan Golders Green District centres Barnet London Plan Hendon central District centres Barnet London Plan Mill Hill District centres Barnet London Plan New Barnet District centres Barnet London Plan North Finchley District centres Barnet London Plan Temple Fortune District centres Barnet London Plan Whetstone District centres Barnet London Plan Brent Cross Additional Barnet GOAD Centre London Gateway Welcome Break Motorway Service Station Additional Barnet GOAD Centre East Barnet Village Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Edgware - Apex Corner Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Edgware - Deansbrook Road Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Edgware - Hale Lane Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Finchley - Holders Hill Road Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Finchley Lane, Barnet, London Nw4 Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Friern Barnet Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Friern Barnet - Colney Hatch Lane Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Hendon - Childs Hill Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Hendon - Grahame Park Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Hendon - Market Place Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre New Barnet - Great North Road Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre West Hendon Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Barnet - Friern Bridge Retail Park Additional Barnet GOAD Retail Park Barnet - Pentavia Retail Park Additional Barnet GOAD Retail Park Barnet - The Hyde Additional Barnet GOAD Retail Park Brent Cross - Staples Corner Retail Park Additional Barnet GOAD Retail Park Edgware - Capitol Retail Park Additional Barnet GOAD Retail Park Finchley - Great North Leisure Park Additional Barnet GOAD Retail Park Park Royal - North Circular Road Additional Barnet GOAD Retail Park Bexleyheath Major centres Bexley London Plan Crayford District centres Bexley London Plan Sidcup District centres Bexley London Plan Welling District centres Bexley London Plan Bexley Additional Bexley GOAD Centre Erith District centres Bexley GOAD Centre Blackfen Road, Blackfen, Sidcup, DA15 8PR Additional Bexley Neighbourhood Centre Sidcup - Crittles Corner Retail Park Additional Bexley GOAD Retail Park Kilburn Major centres Brent London Plan

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Wembley Major centres Brent London Plan Cricklewood District centres Brent London Plan Ealing Road District centres Brent London Plan Harlesden District centres Brent London Plan Kenton District centres Brent London Plan Kingsbury District centres Brent London Plan Neasden District centres Brent London Plan Preston Road District centres Brent London Plan Wembley Park District centres Brent London Plan Willesden Green District centres Brent London Plan Alperton Additional Brent Neighbourhood Centre Manor Farm Road, Alperton, Wembley Additional Brent Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Shirland Road Additional Brent Neighbourhood Centre Willesden - Church Road Additional Brent Neighbourhood Centre Alperton - Quill Street Retail Park Additional Brent GOAD Retail Park Brent - Brent Park Additional Brent GOAD Retail Park Wembley - Olympic Retail Park Additional Brent GOAD Retail Park Asda - Wembley Additional Brent Convenience Superstore Bromley Metropolitan centres Bromley London Plan Orpington Major centres Bromley London Plan Beckenham District centres Bromley London Plan Crystal Palace District centres Bromley London Plan Penge District centres Bromley London Plan Petts Wood District centres Bromley London Plan West Wickham District centres Bromley London Plan Biggin Hill Additional Bromley GOAD Centre Chislehurst Additional Bromley GOAD Centre

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Bickley Road, Widmore, Bromley Additional Bromley Neighbourhood Centre Station Approach, Hayes, Bromley Additional Bromley Neighbourhood Centre Orpington - Springvale Retail Park Additional Bromley GOAD Retail Park Sidcup - Ruxley Roundabout Retail Park Additional Bromley GOAD Retail Park Sainsburys - Bromley Additional Bromley Convenience Superstore Sainsburys - Orpington Additional Bromley Convenience Superstore Camden Town Major centres Camden London Plan Hampstead District centres Camden London Plan Kentish Town District centres Camden London Plan Swiss Cottage/Finchley Road District centres Camden London Plan West Hampstead District centres Camden London Plan Euston (London) Additional Camden GOAD Centre Kings Cross (London) Additional Camden GOAD Centre Haverstock Hill, Camden, London Nw3 Additional Camden Neighbourhood Centre Holborn - Lambs Conduit Street Additional Camden Neighbourhood Centre Holborn - The Brunswick Additional Camden Neighbourhood Centre Cheapside CAZ Frontage City of London London Plan Fleet Street CAZ Frontage City of London London Plan Leadenhall Market CAZ Frontage City of London London Plan Liverpool Street CAZ Frontage City of London London Plan Moorgate CAZ Frontage City of London London Plan Bank Additional City of London GOAD Centre Farringdon Additional City of London GOAD Centre Fenchurch Street Additional City of London GOAD Centre Holborn Additional City of London GOAD Centre Ludgate Hill & St Pauls Additional City of London GOAD Centre Aldersgate Street, Barbican, London Ec1, EC1A 4JR Additional City of London Neighbourhood Centre

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Croydon Metropolitan centres Croydon London Plan Addiscombe District centres Croydon London Plan Coulsdon District centres Croydon London Plan Norbury District centres Croydon London Plan Purley District centres Croydon London Plan South Norwood District centres Croydon London Plan Thornton Heath District centres Croydon London Plan Upper Norwood District centres Croydon London Plan New Addington Additional Croydon GOAD Centre Addington Road, Selsdon, South Croydon, CR 2 8LB Additional Croydon Neighbourhood Centre London Road, Selhurst, Croydon Additional Croydon Neighbourhood Centre Waddon Way, Beddington, Croydon Additional Croydon Neighbourhood Centre West Croydon Additional Croydon Neighbourhood Centre Croydon - Purley Way Additional Croydon GOAD Retail Park Bluewater Additional Dartford GOAD Centre Ealing Metropolitan centres Ealing London Plan Southall Major centres Ealing London Plan Acton District centres Ealing London Plan Greenford District centres Ealing London Plan Hanwell District centres Ealing London Plan West Ealing Additional Ealing GOAD Centre Church Road, Ealing, London W7 Additional Ealing Neighbourhood Centre Greenford Avenue, Ealing, London W7 Additional Ealing Neighbourhood Centre Rockware Avenue, Greenford Additional Ealing Neighbourhood Centre Acton - West Five Centre Additional Ealing GOAD Retail Park Greenford - Westway Shopping Park Additional Ealing GOAD Retail Park Southall - Great Western Industrial Park Additional Ealing GOAD Retail Park

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Asda Western Road - London Additional Ealing Convenience Superstore Enfield Town Major centres Enfield London Plan Angel Edmonton District centres Enfield London Plan Edmonton Green District centres Enfield London Plan Palmers Green District centres Enfield London Plan Southgate District centres Enfield London Plan Enfield Wash Additional Enfield Neighbourhood Centre Hammond Road, Enfield Additional Enfield Neighbourhood Centre New Southgate Additional Enfield Neighbourhood Centre Edmonton - Ravenside Retail Park Additional Enfield GOAD Retail Park Enfield - Colosseum Park Additional Enfield GOAD Retail Park Enfield - Lee Valley Leisure Centre Additional Enfield GOAD Retail Park Tesco - Enfield Additional Enfield Convenience Superstore Eltham Major centres Greenwich London Plan Woolwich Major centres Greenwich London Plan Greenwich West District centres Greenwich London Plan Plumstead District centres Greenwich London Plan Thamesmead District centres Greenwich London Plan Greenwich Peninsula - Greenwich Shopping Park Additional Greenwich GOAD Retail Park Dalston Major centres Hackney London Plan Finsbury Park District centres Hackney London Plan Mare Street District centres Hackney London Plan Stoke Newington District centres Hackney London Plan Shoreditch Additional Hackney GOAD Centre City Road, Old Street, London Ec1, EC1V 1JB Additional Hackney Neighbourhood Centre Fulham Major centres Hammersmith and Fulham London Plan Hammersmith Major centres Hammersmith and Fulham London Plan

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Shepherds Bush District centres Hammersmith and Fulham London Plan Brook Green Additional Hammersmith and Fulham Neighbourhood Centre Fulham Palace Road, Hammersmith and Fulham, London Sw6 Additional Hammersmith and Fulham Neighbourhood Centre Kensington - Olympia Additional Hammersmith and Fulham Neighbourhood Centre Munster Road, Hammersmith and Fulham, London Sw6, SW 6 4EW Additional Hammersmith and Fulham Neighbourhood Centre New Kings Road, Hammersmith and Fulham, London Sw6 Additional Hammersmith and Fulham Neighbourhood Centre Parsons Green Additional Hammersmith and Fulham Neighbourhood Centre Stamford Brook Additional Hammersmith and Fulham Neighbourhood Centre Wood Green Metropolitan centres Haringey London Plan Crouch End District centres Haringey London Plan Green Lanes District centres Haringey London Plan Muswell Hill District centres Haringey London Plan Tottenham District centres Haringey London Plan West Green Road District centres Haringey London Plan Harringay - Green Lanes Additional Haringey GOAD Centre Seven Sisters Additional Haringey GOAD Centre Highgate Additional Haringey Neighbourhood Centre Tottenham Hale - Tottenham Hale Retail Park Additional Haringey GOAD Retail Park Harrow Metropolitan centres Harrow London Plan North Harrow District centres Harrow London Plan Pinner District centres Harrow London Plan Rayners Lane District centres Harrow London Plan South Harrow District centres Harrow London Plan Stanmore District centres Harrow London Plan Wealdstone District centres Harrow London Plan Hatch End Additional Harrow GOAD Centre Pinner Road, Harrow on the Hill, Harrow Additional Harrow Neighbourhood Centre

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Harrow - High Road Retail Park Additional Harrow GOAD Retail Park Tesco - Harrow Additional Harrow Convenience Superstore Tesco - Pinner Additional Harrow Convenience Superstore Romford Metropolitan centres Havering London Plan Collier Row District centres Havering London Plan Elm Park District centres Havering London Plan Harold Hill District centres Havering London Plan Hornchurch District centres Havering London Plan Rainham District centres Havering London Plan Upminster District centres Havering London Plan Main Road, Gidea Park, Romford, RM 2 5EL Additional Havering Neighbourhood Centre Romford - Eastern Avenue Retail Park Additional Havering GOAD Retail Park Romford - Gallows Corner Retail Park Additional Havering GOAD Retail Park Romford - North Street Retail Park Additional Havering GOAD Retail Park Romford - Rom Valley Way Retail Park Additional Havering GOAD Retail Park Romford - Roneo Corner Retail Park Additional Havering GOAD Retail Park Tesco - Hornchurch Additional Havering Convenience Superstore Tesco - London Additional Havering Convenience Superstore Uxbridge Metropolitan centres Hillingdon London Plan Eastcote District centres Hillingdon London Plan Hayes District centres Hillingdon London Plan Ickenham Additional Hillingdon Neighbourhood Centre Northwood District centres Hillingdon London Plan Ruislip District centres Hillingdon London Plan Yiewsley/West Drayton District centres Hillingdon London Plan Heathrow Airport Additional Hillingdon GOAD Centre Northwood Hills Additional Hillingdon GOAD Centre

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Ruislip Manor Additional Hillingdon GOAD Centre Sipson, Hounslow Additional Hillingdon Neighbourhood Centre Hayes - Glencoe Road Retail Park Additional Hillingdon GOAD Retail Park Hayes - Hayes Bridge Retail Park Additional Hillingdon GOAD Retail Park Hayes - Lombardy Retail Park Additional Hillingdon GOAD Retail Park Ruislip - Victoria Retail Park Additional Hillingdon GOAD Retail Park Hounslow Metropolitan centres Hounslow London Plan Chiswick Major centres Hounslow London Plan Brentford District centres Hounslow London Plan Feltham High Street District centres Hounslow London Plan Heston Moto Motorway Service Station Additional Hounslow GOAD Centre Bath Road, Heston, Hounslow, TW 3 3DH Additional Hounslow Neighbourhood Centre Great West Road, Osterley, Isleworth, TW 7 5NG Additional Hounslow Neighbourhood Centre London Road, Osterley, Isleworth, TW 7 4BX Additional Hounslow Neighbourhood Centre Vicarage Farm Road, Heston, Hounslow, TW 5 0DR Additional Hounslow Neighbourhood Centre Brentford - Gateway Centre Additional Hounslow GOAD Retail Park Chiswick - Gunnersbury Avenue Retail Park Additional Hounslow GOAD Retail Park Feltham - Apex Retail Park Additional Hounslow GOAD Retail Park Feltham - Leisure West Additional Hounslow GOAD Retail Park Hayes - Hayes Road Retail Park Additional Hounslow GOAD Retail Park Park Royal - Royale Leisure Park Additional Hounslow GOAD Retail Park Angel Major centres Islington London Plan Nags Head Major centres Islington London Plan Archway District centres Islington London Plan Barnsbury Additional Islington Neighbourhood Centre Seven Sisters Road, Hackney, London N4 Additional Islington Neighbourhood Centre Kensington High Street Major centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Kings Road East Major centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan Earls Court Road District centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan Fulham Road (east) District centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan Fulham Road (west) District centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan Kings Road (west) District centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan Notting Hill Gate District centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan Portobello Road District centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan South Kensington District centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan Gloucester Road Additional Kensington and Chelsea GOAD Centre Sloane Street Additional Kensington and Chelsea GOAD Centre Golborne Road Additional Kensington and Chelsea Neighbourhood Centre Holland Park Avenue, Kensington and Chelsea, London W11 Additional Kensington and Chelsea Neighbourhood Centre Ladbroke Grove Additional Kensington and Chelsea Neighbourhood Centre Kingston Metropolitan centres Kingston upon Thames London Plan New Malden District centres Kingston upon Thames London Plan Surbiton District centres Kingston upon Thames London Plan Tolworth District centres Kingston upon Thames London Plan Chessington & Hook Additional Kingston upon Thames GOAD Centre Hawks Road, Kingston upon Thames, Additional Kingston upon Thames Neighbourhood Centre New Malden - Shannon Corner Retail Park Additional Kingston upon Thames GOAD Retail Park Brixton Major centres Lambeth London Plan Streatham Major centres Lambeth London Plan Clapham High Street District centres Lambeth London Plan Lower Marsh CAZ Frontage Lambeth London Plan Stockwell District centres Lambeth London Plan Tulse Hill District centres Lambeth London Plan West Norwood District centres Lambeth London Plan

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Dorset Road, Lambeth, London Sw8 Additional Lambeth Neighbourhood Centre Knights Hill, Lambeth, London Se27 Additional Lambeth Neighbourhood Centre Lambeth Additional Lambeth Neighbourhood Centre West Norwood & Tulse Hill - Tulse Hill Additional Lambeth Neighbourhood Centre Tesco - London Additional Lambeth Convenience Superstore Catford Major centres Lewisham London Plan Lee Green District centres Lewisham London Plan Lewisham Major centres Lewisham London Plan Blackheath District centres Lewisham London Plan Deptford District centres Lewisham London Plan Downham District centres Lewisham London Plan Forest Hill District centres Lewisham London Plan New Cross District centres Lewisham London Plan Sydenham District centres Lewisham London Plan Bromley Road, Lewisham, London Se6, SE 6 2NZ Additional Lewisham Neighbourhood Centre Catford - Bromley Road Retail Park Additional Lewisham GOAD Retail Park Catford - Catford Hill Retail Park Additional Lewisham GOAD Retail Park Deptford - Bestwood Retail Park Additional Lewisham GOAD Retail Park Southwark - Southernwood Retail Park Additional Lewisham GOAD Retail Park Sainsburys - London Additional Lewisham Convenience Superstore Wimbledon Major centres Merton London Plan Mitcham District centres Merton London Plan Morden District centres Merton London Plan Wimbledon Village Additional Merton GOAD Centre Coombe Lane, Merton, London Sw20, SW20 0AX Additional Merton Neighbourhood Centre Merton High Street, Merton, London Sw19, SW19 1BD Additional Merton Neighbourhood Centre Merton - Merton Industrial Park Additional Merton GOAD Retail Park

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Merton - Priory Retail Park Additional Merton GOAD Retail Park Wimbledon - Plough Lane Additional Merton GOAD Retail Park East Ham Major centres Newham London Plan Stratford Major centres Newham London Plan Canning Town District centres Newham London Plan East Beckton District centres Newham London Plan Forest Gate District centres Newham London Plan Upton Park District centres Newham London Plan Beckton Triangle & Gateway Retail Parks Additional Newham GOAD Centre London City Airport Additional Newham GOAD Centre Maryland Additional Newham Neighbourhood Centre Upton Park - Green Street Additional Newham Neighbourhood Centre Beckton - Gallions Reach Additional Newham GOAD Retail Park Beckton - Jenkins Lane Leisure Park Additional Newham GOAD Retail Park Ilford Metropolitan centres Redbridge London Plan Barkingside District centres Redbridge London Plan Gants Hill District centres Redbridge London Plan South Woodford District centres Redbridge London Plan Wanstead District centres Redbridge London Plan Goodmayes Additional Redbridge GOAD Centre Newbury Park Additional Redbridge GOAD Centre Ilford - Ilford Lane Additional Redbridge Neighbourhood Centre The Broadway, Woodford, Woodford Green Additional Redbridge Neighbourhood Centre Newbury Park - King George Avenue Retail Park Additional Redbridge GOAD Retail Park Walthamstow - Walthamstow Avenue Retail Park Additional Redbridge GOAD Retail Park Richmond Major centres Richmond upon Thames London Plan East Sheen District centres Richmond upon Thames London Plan

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Teddington District centres Richmond upon Thames London Plan Twickenham District centres Richmond upon Thames London Plan Whitton District centres Richmond Upon Thames London Plan Barnes Additional Richmond Upon Thames GOAD Centre High Street, Hampton, TW12 1NH Additional Richmond upon Thames Neighbourhood Centre Kew Additional Richmond upon Thames Neighbourhood Centre Percy Road, Twickenham Additional Richmond upon Thames Neighbourhood Centre Richmond (London) - Kew Retail Park Additional Richmond upon Thames GOAD Retail Park Twickenham - Ivybridge Retail Park Additional Richmond Upon Thames GOAD Retail Park Sainsburys - Hampton Additional Richmond upon Thames Convenience Superstore Sainsburys - Richmond Additional Richmond upon Thames Convenience Superstore Peckham Major centres Southwark London Plan Borough High Street CAZ Frontage Southwark London Plan Camberwell District centres Southwark London Plan Dulwich - Lordship Lane District centres Southwark London Plan Elephant and Castle District centres Southwark London Plan Surrey Quays District centres Southwark London Plan Walworth Road District centres Southwark London Plan London Bridge Additional Southwark GOAD Centre Southwark Bridge Road, Southwark, London Se1 Additional Southwark Neighbourhood Centre St. James's Road, Southwark, London Se1 Additional Southwark Neighbourhood Centre Peckham - Cantium Retail Park Additional Southwark GOAD Retail Park Sutton Metropolitan centres Sutton London Plan Cheam District centres Sutton London Plan North Cheam District centres Sutton London Plan Rosehill District centres Sutton London Plan Wallington District centres Sutton London Plan

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Worcester Park District centres Sutton London Plan Carshalton Additional Sutton GOAD Centre Beddington Farm Road, Beddington, Croydon Additional Sutton Neighbourhood Centre Asda - Croydon Additional Sutton Convenience Superstore Tesco - Sutton Additional Sutton Convenience Superstore Lakeside Additional Thurrock GOAD Centre Lakeside Retail Park Additional Thurrock GOAD Centre Canary Wharf Major centres Tower Hamlets London Plan Bethnal Green District centres Tower Hamlets London Plan Chrisp Street District centres Tower Hamlets London Plan Crossharbour District centres Tower Hamlets London Plan Poplar District centres Tower Hamlets London Plan Roman Road (east) District centres Tower Hamlets London Plan Watney Market District centres Tower Hamlets London Plan Whitechapel District centres Tower Hamlets London Plan Brick Lane Additional Tower Hamlets GOAD Centre Bethnal Green - Cambridge Heath Additional Tower Hamlets Neighbourhood Centre Mile End Road, Tower Hamlets, London E1, E 1 4NT Additional Tower Hamlets Neighbourhood Centre Prescot Street, Tower Hamlets, London E1 Additional Tower Hamlets Neighbourhood Centre Whitechapel Road, Tower Hamlets, London E1 Additional Tower Hamlets Neighbourhood Centre Stratford - Hancock Road Retail Park Additional Tower Hamlets GOAD Retail Park Whitechapel - Anchor Retail Park Additional Tower Hamlets GOAD Retail Park Walthamstow Major centres Waltham Forest London Plan Bakers Arms District centres Waltham Forest London Plan Leytonstone District centres Waltham Forest London Plan North Chingford District centres Waltham Forest London Plan South Chingford District centres Waltham Forest London Plan

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Wood Street District centres Waltham Forest London Plan Highams Park Additional Waltham Forest Neighbourhood Centre Leyton - High Road Leyton District centres Waltham Forest London Plan Leyton - Leyton Mills Retail Park Additional Waltham Forest GOAD Retail Park Clapham Junction Major centres Wandsworth London Plan Putney Major centres Wandsworth London Plan Tooting Major centres Wandsworth London Plan Wandsworth Major centres Wandsworth London Plan Balham District centres Wandsworth London Plan Battersea Additional Wandsworth Neighbourhood Centre Battersea Park Additional Wandsworth Neighbourhood Centre Clapham - Lavender Hill Additional Wandsworth Neighbourhood Centre Meyrick Road, Wandsworth, London Sw11 Additional Wandsworth Neighbourhood Centre Putney - Lower Richmond Road Additional Wandsworth Neighbourhood Centre Replingham Road, Wandsworth, London Sw18 Additional Wandsworth Neighbourhood Centre Balham - Balham High Road Retail Park Additional Wandsworth GOAD Retail Park Wandsworth - Hurlingham Retail Park Additional Wandsworth GOAD Retail Park Wandsworth - Smugglers Way Retail Park Additional Wandsworth GOAD Retail Park Asda Roehampton Vale - London Additional Wandsworth Convenience Superstore Knightsbridge International centres Westminster London Plan West End International centres Westminster London Plan Queensway/Westbourne Grove Major centres Westminster London Plan Edgware Road/Church Street NT District centres Westminster London Plan Edgware Road South CAZ Frontage Westminster London Plan Harrow Road District centres Westminster London Plan Marylebone High Street CAZ Frontage Westminster London Plan Praed Street/Paddington District centres Westminster London Plan

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Centre Name Category Borough Source St John's Wood District centres Westminster London Plan Warwick Way/Tachbrook St CAZ Frontage Westminster London Plan Victoria Street CAZ Frontage Westminster London Plan Belgravia Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Maida Vale Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Moreton Street, Pimlico, London Sw1 Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Blenheim Terrace Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Boundary Road Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Clifton Road Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Crawford Street Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Fernhead Road Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Kilburn Lane Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Lauderdale Road Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Lisson Grove Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Nugent Terrace Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Westbourne Green Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Westbourne Park Road Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre

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APPENDIX 3 - EXPERIAN'S PROVISION OF RETAIL DATA

GOAD

A3.1 Experian owns Goad, a unique source of town centre and retail park data. The Goad database comprises floor plans of over 1,200 town centres and 1,500 retail parks across the country and is updated annually by our team of professional surveyors. These plans can be produced in either hard or electronic format.

A3.2 The example above is part of the Goad plan of Knightsbridge, focusing on the intersection of the Brompton Road and Sloane Street.

A3.3 In addition to the maps, the Goad database contains all the data that sits behind these plans. It includes key details on each individual outlet such as:

10. Full address. 11. Category (e.g. comparison, convenience, retail service, leisure service). 12. Trading activity (e.g. clothing, department store, supermarket). 13. Fascia (e.g. John Lewis, M&S, Zara, Apple). 14. Parent company (e.g. Bauger, Arcadia, Wal-Mart, Inditex). 15. Floorspace.

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A3.4 Clearly, it is the floorspace figures that are of most relevance to the project in question. They are based on Ordnance Survey surface area calculations rather than trading area floorspace. In this project they include multiple floors, for example in department stores, by taking an additional 70% of the ground floorspace for each additional storey. The approach is consistent across all Goad plans.

A3.5 In the project, all non-comparison retail and non-retail floorspace has been filtered off, establishing a pure figure for comparison retail floorspace for each centre under examination.

Estimating floorspace for non-Goad centres

A3.6 For the majority of centres in the list generated above, Goad can be used as a consistent source of floorspace information. Approximately 8% of centres within the London Plan list are not covered by Goad. Experian's database of neighbourhood centres has been used for these centres to generate floorspace estimates that are comparable to Goad.

A3.7 Experian's neighbourhood centre database includes over 15,000 clusters of retail and details their composition by count of store type.

A3.8 There is some overlap between centres in the neighbourhood database and Goad within Greater London. Average floorspace figures from Goad for individual categories of retailer within these small centres have been applied to similar sized centres not covered by Goad. Total floorspace, based on the individual elements of a centre, can then be estimated. Such estimates within the summary tables are identified as ‘additional neighbourhood centre’.

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APPENDIX 4 - EXPERIAN’S DEFINITION OF RETAIL CENTRES

GOAD Centre Boundaries

A4.1 Each retail centre that is surveyed by Experian GOAD has a distinct set of discernable boundaries. The following series of plans document the GOAD boundaries for the International, Metropolitan and Major centres contained within the London Plan.

A4.2 Where possible the GOAD boundary definitions have been matched with existing retail centre definitions to ensure consistency.

A4.3 Please note these GOAD plans are for reference purposes only and must not be distributed or published without prior permission.

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Figure 2: GOAD plan of London West End

150

Figure 3: GOAD plan of Knightsbridge

151

Figure 4: GOAD plan of Bromley

152

Figure 5: GOAD plan of Croydon

153

Figure 6: GOAD plan of Ealing

154

Figure 7: GOAD plan of Harrow

155

Figure 8: GOAD plan of Hounslow

156

Figure 9: GOAD plan of Ilford

157

Figure 10: GOAD plan of Kingston

158

Figure 11: GOAD plan of Romford

159

Figure 12: GOAD plan of Sutton

160

Figure 13: GOAD plan of Uxbridge

161

Figure 14: GOAD plan of Wood Green

162

Figure 15: GOAD plan of Angel

163

Figure 16: GOAD plan of Barking & Dagenham

164

Figure 17: GOAD plan of Bexleyheath

165

Figure 18: GOAD plan of Brixton

166

Figure 19: GOAD plan of Camden Town

167

Figure 20: GOAD plan of Canary Wharf

168

Figure 21: GOAD plan of Catford

169

Figure 22: GOAD plan of Chiswick

170

Figure 23: GOAD plan of Clapham Junction

171

Figure 24: GOAD plan of Dalston

172

Figure 25: GOAD plan of East Ham

173

Figure 26: GOAD plan of Edgware

174

Figure 27: GOAD plan of Eltham

175

Figure 28: GOAD plan of Enfield Town

176

Figure 29: GOAD plan of Fulham

177

Figure 30: GOAD plan of Hammersmith

178

Figure 31: GOAD plan of Kensington High Street

179

Figure 32: GOAD plan of Kilburn

180

Figure 33: GOAD plan of Kings Road East

181

Figure 34: GOAD plan of Lewisham

182

Figure 35: GOAD plan of Nags Head

183

Figure 36: GOAD plan of Orpington

184

Figure 37: GOAD plan of Peckham

185

Figure 38: GOAD plan of Putney

186

Figure 39: GOAD plan of Queensway/Westbourne Grove

187

Figure 40: GOAD plan of Richmond

188

Figure 41: GOAD plan of Southall

189

Figure 42: GOAD plan of Stratford

190

Figure 43: GOAD plan of Streatham

191

Figure 44: GOAD plan of Tooting

192

Figure 45: GOAD plan of Walthamstow

193

Figure 46: GOAD plan of Wandsworth

194

Figure 47: GOAD plan of Wembley

195

Figure 48: GOAD plan of Wimbledon

196

Figure 49: GOAD plan of Woolwich

197

APPENDIX 5 - LIST OF KEY ATTRACTOR HOLDING GROUPS

Key attractors within the gravity modelling process

A5.1 Outlets in centres that belong to this list of holding group companies generate the key attractors component of the attractiveness score in the gravity model.

Holding Company Name Holding Company Name Advent International Kesa Aldi Kingfisher Alliance Boots Kohlberg Kravis Roberts VC Group Amro Capital Kwik Save Arcadia Group Land Of Leather AS Watson Laura Ashley Associated British Foods Lewis Trust B & M Retail Lidl & Schwartz Gmbh Baugur UK Mackays Stores BHS Marks & Spencer Blacks Leisure Matalan Retail Borders (USA) Merchant Equity Partners Brantano UK Monsoon Accessorize Group Bridgepoint Mosaic Fashions British Heart Foundation Mothercare Brown & Jackson Musgrave C & J Clark International NBTY Inc Cancer Research UK Next Carpetright Nobia Carphone Warehouse Oxfam Celesio AG Peacocks Stores Cerberus Permira Clinton Cards QS Group Co-operative Union ScS Upholstery Costco Shoe Zone CVC Capital Signet D F S Furniture Company Somerfield Dansk Supermarked A/S Spar UK Debenhams Sports World International Dreams Staples Inc (USA) DSG International Stead & Simpson Dunelm Soft Furnishings Stichting Ingka Foundation Dunnes Stores Stylo Farmfoods T J Hughes Fenwick T J Morris

198

Holding Company Name Holding Company Name GAME Group T M Group Gap Inc Tapis Saint-Maclou GHCL Telefonica-O2 Greggs Tesco Groupe Geraud The Range Home & Leisure H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB TJX Companies Inc H M V Group Topps Tiles Home Retail Group Travis Perkins Homestyle Group Vision Capital Inditex Wal-Mart Internacionale WHSmith J D Group Wilkinson Hardware Stores J Sainsbury Wm Morrison Supermarkets JJB Sports Woolworths Group John Lewis Zavvi Entertainment Group

199

APPENDIX 6 - FULL BREAKDOWN OF EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES

Estimates of spending on retail goods in 2006 – coarse categories

200

Estimates of spending on retail goods in 2006 – fine categories

201

APPENDIX 7 - ANNUAL EXPENDITURE BY DETAILED PRODUCT GROUP 2006-2031

Annual expenditure on convenience goods by detailed product group 2006 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions

Beer (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 Barking and Dagenham 17 45 8 24 4 13 28 14 8 5 12 30 5 11 8 14 Barnet 35 91 21 54 9 35 65 27 19 11 27 45 13 41 13 30 Bexley 24 62 12 34 6 19 39 19 12 7 16 33 7 19 11 19 Brent 25 65 14 39 7 23 47 20 14 7 21 41 9 23 10 21 Bromley 35 91 19 52 9 32 61 28 18 11 25 44 12 35 14 28 Camden 22 55 14 34 6 22 43 16 12 6 19 36 9 29 8 19 City of London 1 3 1 2 0 1 3 1 1 0 1 2 1 2 1 1 Croydon 36 93 19 54 9 32 64 28 19 11 27 52 12 34 15 29 Ealing 31 79 18 48 9 29 57 24 17 9 25 46 11 32 13 26 Enfield 30 78 16 44 8 26 53 23 16 9 23 44 10 27 13 24 Greenwich 24 62 13 36 6 21 42 19 13 7 19 40 8 21 10 19 Hackney 19 50 12 30 6 18 37 15 11 6 17 38 7 18 8 16 Hammersmith and Fulham 18 45 11 28 5 18 35 13 10 5 15 29 7 23 7 15 Haringey 22 58 13 35 6 21 43 17 13 7 19 37 9 24 9 19 Harrow 22 58 12 34 6 21 40 18 12 7 17 30 7 21 9 19 Havering 25 66 13 36 6 21 42 20 13 8 17 35 8 20 11 20

202

Beer (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 Hillingdon 26 67 13 38 6 22 44 21 14 8 19 37 8 22 11 21 Hounslow 22 57 12 33 6 19 39 17 12 7 17 35 7 20 10 18 Islington 19 50 12 30 6 19 38 14 11 6 17 35 8 22 8 16 Kensington and Chelsea 19 48 13 31 6 21 39 14 11 6 17 29 9 29 7 18 Kingston upon Thames 17 44 10 26 4 17 31 13 9 5 13 23 6 20 7 14 Lambeth 27 71 17 43 8 27 53 20 16 8 24 49 11 30 11 23 Lewisham 26 67 15 40 7 23 48 20 14 8 21 44 10 24 11 21 Merton 21 55 12 32 6 20 39 16 12 6 17 30 8 23 9 18 Newham 21 56 12 35 7 19 40 17 12 6 18 42 7 15 9 19 Redbridge 25 65 13 38 7 22 44 20 13 7 19 36 8 22 11 21 Richmond upon Thames 22 55 13 33 6 22 41 16 12 7 17 26 8 29 8 19 Southwark 25 65 15 38 7 23 47 19 14 7 21 48 9 24 10 20 Sutton 21 54 11 30 5 18 36 16 11 6 15 28 7 20 9 17 Tower Hamlets 19 49 11 30 6 18 36 14 11 5 17 38 7 17 8 16 Waltham Forest 23 58 12 34 6 19 40 18 12 7 18 37 8 18 10 18 Wandsworth 30 74 19 46 8 30 57 22 17 9 25 46 12 38 12 26 Westminster 25 62 17 39 7 26 50 18 14 7 21 39 11 36 9 22

North 172 443 106 267 48 168 327 129 96 51 143 273 67 196 69 146 North East 131 342 69 198 36 114 233 104 70 39 103 220 43 106 57 109

203

Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 South East 134 348 74 199 35 119 238 105 71 40 103 210 46 122 57 108 South West 174 446 101 265 46 165 321 133 95 52 138 253 64 193 72 145 West 163 420 94 251 44 154 301 125 89 48 130 246 58 171 67 138 CAZ 44 113 29 70 13 46 88 32 25 13 39 75 19 58 18 39

Inner London 294 757 182 461 85 287 567 221 166 87 252 515 116 326 120 252 Outer London 481 1,241 261 718 125 433 852 375 255 143 365 687 162 461 201 394 Greater London 775 1,999 444 1,180 209 720 1,420 596 421 230 617 1,202 278 787 321 646

204

Annual expenditure on convenience goods by detailed product group 2011 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions

Beer (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 Barking and Dagenham 20 53 8 27 5 16 32 16 11 6 15 26 6 15 9 13 Barnet 41 104 21 58 10 42 71 30 23 13 32 37 15 53 15 28 Bexley 26 67 11 34 6 22 41 20 14 8 18 26 8 23 11 17 Brent 29 74 14 42 8 28 51 22 17 9 24 33 10 29 11 20 Bromley 39 100 18 53 9 37 65 30 22 13 29 35 13 44 15 26 Camden 24 61 14 36 7 26 46 17 15 8 22 29 10 36 9 18 City of London 2 4 1 3 0 2 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 Croydon 41 104 19 57 10 38 69 31 23 13 32 42 14 43 16 27 Ealing 35 90 17 51 9 35 63 27 20 11 29 38 12 42 13 25 Enfield 33 85 15 46 8 31 55 26 18 11 26 35 11 34 13 22 Greenwich 28 73 13 39 7 25 48 22 16 9 23 34 10 27 12 19 Hackney 22 57 12 32 6 22 40 17 13 7 20 31 9 23 9 15 Hammersmith and Fulham 20 51 11 30 5 21 38 14 12 6 18 23 9 29 8 14 Haringey 26 65 13 37 7 25 46 19 15 8 22 30 10 30 10 17 Harrow 25 63 12 35 6 24 42 19 14 8 19 23 8 27 9 17 Havering 28 74 12 38 6 24 44 22 15 9 20 28 9 25 12 18 Hillingdon 29 73 12 39 7 25 46 22 16 9 21 29 9 27 12 19

205

Beer (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 Hounslow 26 67 12 37 6 24 44 20 15 8 21 29 8 26 11 18 Islington 22 57 12 33 6 23 42 16 14 7 20 29 9 29 9 16 Kensington and Chelsea 22 54 13 32 6 25 42 15 13 7 19 23 10 37 7 16 Kingston upon Thames 19 49 10 27 5 19 34 15 11 6 15 18 7 25 7 13 Lambeth 31 79 17 45 8 32 57 23 19 10 27 40 13 38 12 22 Lewisham 30 76 14 42 8 28 52 23 17 9 25 36 11 31 12 20 Merton 24 60 11 33 6 23 41 18 13 8 19 24 8 29 9 16 Newham 27 70 13 41 8 25 49 21 16 8 24 39 9 22 11 19 Redbridge 29 74 13 40 7 27 48 22 16 9 22 30 9 28 11 20 Richmond upon Thames 24 61 13 35 6 26 43 18 14 8 19 21 9 36 9 17 Southwark 30 77 16 43 8 29 54 23 18 9 26 42 11 32 12 20 Sutton 23 59 10 31 5 21 38 18 13 7 17 22 7 24 10 15 Tower Hamlets 24 62 13 35 7 24 44 18 14 7 22 35 9 25 10 17 Waltham Forest 26 66 12 36 6 23 44 20 15 8 21 30 9 24 10 17 Wandsworth 34 85 18 50 9 36 63 24 20 11 29 37 14 49 13 24 Westminster 28 70 16 42 8 31 54 20 17 9 25 32 13 46 10 21

North 196 500 103 283 52 200 355 145 115 62 166 223 77 251 73 137 North East 156 403 71 219 40 141 264 121 87 49 125 189 51 142 63 106 South East 153 394 72 212 38 142 259 118 86 48 121 173 53 158 61 101

206

Inner London 345 878 182 502 93 350 632 254 205 108 301 432 136 427 132 242 Outer London 543 1,388 253 755 132 510 916 416 303 172 421 556 184 585 212 364 Greater London 888 2,265 435 1,257 226 859 1,548 670 508 280 722 988 320 1,012 344 606

207

Annual expenditure on convenience goods by detailed product group 2016 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions

Beer (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 Barking and Dagenham 24 58 9 29 5 19 39 17 12 7 18 24 7 18 9 12 Barnet 48 115 24 62 11 50 87 32 27 15 40 34 18 65 16 27 Bexley 29 70 12 35 6 25 47 20 15 9 21 22 9 27 11 15 Brent 32 77 15 42 8 32 59 22 18 10 28 29 12 34 11 18 Bromley 43 103 20 54 9 42 73 30 23 13 33 30 15 51 15 23 Camden 27 65 15 37 7 30 54 18 16 8 25 26 12 42 9 16 City of London 2 5 1 3 1 2 4 1 1 1 2 2 1 4 1 1 Croydon 45 107 20 57 10 42 78 31 25 14 36 36 16 49 16 24 Ealing 39 94 19 52 9 40 73 27 22 12 34 33 14 49 14 22 Enfield 36 87 16 46 8 34 63 25 20 11 29 30 12 38 13 19 Greenwich 33 81 15 43 8 31 59 23 19 10 28 32 12 34 13 18 Hackney 25 61 13 33 6 25 48 17 15 8 24 28 10 28 9 14 Hammersmith and Fulham 23 54 12 31 6 25 44 15 13 7 21 21 10 34 8 13 Haringey 28 68 14 38 7 29 53 19 17 9 25 26 12 35 10 16 Harrow 27 65 13 35 6 27 48 19 15 9 22 20 9 31 9 15 Havering 31 76 13 38 6 27 51 22 16 10 23 24 10 29 12 16 Hillingdon 32 76 13 39 7 28 53 22 17 10 24 25 10 32 12 17 Hounslow 29 70 13 38 7 27 52 20 16 9 24 26 10 31 11 16

208

Beer (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 Islington 25 60 14 34 6 27 49 17 15 8 24 26 11 34 9 14 Kensington and Chelsea 24 57 14 33 6 28 48 15 14 7 22 21 11 43 8 15 Kingston upon Thames 22 51 10 28 5 22 39 15 12 7 18 16 8 29 8 12 Lambeth 35 84 19 47 9 37 67 23 21 11 32 35 15 45 12 20 Lewisham 34 81 16 44 8 32 61 23 19 10 29 32 13 36 12 18 Merton 26 62 12 33 6 26 47 18 14 8 21 20 10 33 9 14 Newham 33 81 15 45 9 32 62 23 19 10 30 37 12 28 12 19 Redbridge 32 77 14 41 7 31 56 23 18 10 26 26 10 33 12 18 Richmond upon Thames 27 63 14 35 6 29 50 18 15 8 22 18 11 41 9 15 Southwark 36 87 18 47 9 36 67 24 21 11 33 39 14 40 13 19 Sutton 25 61 11 31 5 23 43 18 14 8 19 19 8 28 10 13 Tower Hamlets 29 69 15 39 8 29 55 20 17 9 27 33 11 32 11 17 Waltham Forest 29 68 13 37 6 26 50 20 16 9 24 26 10 27 11 15 Wandsworth 38 89 20 51 9 41 73 25 22 12 34 33 16 58 13 22 Westminster 32 74 18 43 8 36 63 20 19 10 29 28 15 54 10 19

North 222 529 114 293 53 231 417 147 128 68 195 198 90 296 76 125 North East 180 434 80 232 42 166 317 126 99 55 150 171 62 171 67 98 South East 175 420 81 222 39 165 308 120 97 54 144 155 63 188 64 93 South West 218 516 106 283 50 220 396 146 123 67 183 178 84 283 77 120

209

Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 West 207 492 99 271 48 207 376 140 116 64 175 175 76 253 73 116 CAZ 58 138 32 79 15 64 114 37 34 18 54 56 26 89 20 34

Inner London 397 947 205 530 98 410 755 263 231 121 360 392 162 512 140 224 Outer London 604 1,446 274 771 135 579 1,059 416 331 187 488 486 212 680 218 327 Greater London 1,002 2,393 479 1,301 233 990 1,814 679 563 308 848 877 374 1,192 358 552

210

Annual expenditure on convenience goods by detailed product group 2021 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions

Beer (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 Barking and Dagenham 28 65 11 32 6 23 47 18 14 9 22 23 9 22 10 12 Barnet 53 119 26 64 11 56 98 32 29 16 45 31 20 74 16 25 Bexley 32 72 13 36 6 28 53 20 16 10 24 20 10 31 11 14 Brent 35 79 17 43 8 35 66 22 20 11 32 26 13 38 12 16 Bromley 47 106 21 55 9 46 82 30 25 15 37 27 17 57 15 21 Camden 31 68 17 39 7 34 61 18 18 9 29 24 14 48 10 15 City of London 2 5 1 3 1 3 5 1 1 1 2 2 1 5 1 1 Croydon 48 109 22 57 10 47 87 31 27 15 40 32 18 55 16 22 Ealing 43 98 21 54 10 45 82 27 24 13 38 30 16 55 14 21 Enfield 39 89 18 47 8 38 70 25 21 12 32 26 14 43 13 18 Greenwich 38 87 17 45 8 36 69 24 21 12 33 30 14 40 13 17 Hackney 28 65 15 35 7 29 55 18 17 9 27 26 12 32 10 13 Hammersmith and Fulham 25 56 14 32 6 28 50 15 15 8 24 19 11 39 8 12 Haringey 32 71 16 39 7 33 61 19 18 10 29 24 13 40 10 15 Harrow 29 66 13 35 6 30 53 19 16 9 24 18 10 34 9 14 Havering 34 78 14 39 7 30 57 22 17 11 26 22 11 33 12 15 Hillingdon 35 78 14 40 7 31 59 22 18 11 27 22 11 36 12 15 Hounslow 32 73 14 39 7 31 58 20 18 10 27 23 11 35 11 15

211

Beer (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 Islington 28 63 15 35 7 30 56 17 17 8 27 23 12 39 9 13 Kensington and Chelsea 26 59 15 34 6 31 54 15 16 8 25 18 13 49 8 14 Kingston upon Thames 24 53 11 28 5 24 43 15 13 7 20 14 9 33 8 11 Lambeth 40 89 21 49 9 42 77 24 23 12 37 33 17 52 13 18 Lewisham 37 84 18 45 8 37 69 23 21 11 33 29 15 41 13 17 Merton 28 63 13 34 6 28 52 17 16 9 24 18 11 37 9 13 Newham 38 87 17 48 9 37 72 24 22 11 35 35 14 33 13 18 Redbridge 35 79 15 42 7 34 63 23 19 11 29 23 12 37 12 16 Richmond upon Thames 29 65 15 36 6 32 55 18 16 9 25 16 12 47 9 14 Southwark 42 96 21 51 10 42 81 26 24 13 39 37 17 49 14 19 Sutton 28 62 12 32 5 26 48 17 15 8 22 17 9 31 10 12 Tower Hamlets 33 76 17 42 8 34 65 21 19 10 32 31 13 38 11 16 Waltham Forest 31 70 14 37 7 29 56 20 17 9 26 23 12 31 11 14 Wandsworth 42 93 22 53 9 46 83 25 25 13 39 30 19 66 14 20 Westminster 35 77 20 45 8 40 71 20 21 11 33 25 16 62 11 18

North 246 552 126 303 55 261 473 149 141 75 221 180 102 339 79 116 North East 202 460 90 243 44 190 365 129 110 61 173 159 71 199 70 92 South East 196 444 90 232 41 189 354 123 107 60 165 143 72 218 67 87 South West 239 533 116 289 51 245 445 147 134 73 205 160 94 322 78 110

212

Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 West 227 509 108 277 49 231 423 141 127 69 197 157 85 287 74 106 CAZ 65 145 36 82 15 73 131 38 38 20 62 51 29 102 21 32

Inner London 447 1,003 229 556 103 470 870 271 258 135 414 362 186 594 146 211 Outer London 663 1,494 300 789 138 646 1,190 418 361 203 547 437 237 770 222 301 Greater London 1,110 2,498 529 1,344 241 1,116 2,061 689 619 337 961 799 423 1,364 368 512

213

Annual expenditure on convenience goods by detailed product group 2026 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions

Beer (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 Barking and Dagenham 32 74 13 37 6 26 54 21 16 10 25 27 10 26 12 14 Barnet 56 126 28 68 12 60 105 35 31 18 48 33 22 79 17 26 Bexley 34 77 14 38 6 30 56 22 17 10 25 22 11 33 12 15 Brent 38 85 18 46 8 38 70 24 21 11 34 28 14 41 12 17 Bromley 50 112 23 58 10 49 87 32 27 15 39 29 18 60 16 22 Camden 33 73 18 41 8 37 66 19 19 10 31 26 15 51 10 16 City of London 3 6 2 3 1 3 5 1 2 1 2 2 1 5 1 1 Croydon 51 115 23 60 10 49 91 32 28 15 42 34 19 58 17 23 Ealing 46 103 22 57 10 47 86 29 26 14 40 32 17 57 15 22 Enfield 42 95 18 49 9 40 74 27 23 13 34 28 15 46 14 19 Greenwich 41 93 18 49 9 38 74 26 23 12 35 32 15 43 14 18 Hackney 31 71 16 38 7 32 60 19 18 9 30 28 13 35 10 14 Hammersmith and Fulham 27 60 15 34 6 30 54 16 16 8 25 20 12 42 9 13 Haringey 34 76 17 42 8 35 65 21 20 10 31 26 14 41 11 16 Harrow 31 69 14 37 7 31 56 20 17 10 25 19 11 36 10 14 Havering 37 83 15 41 7 32 61 24 19 11 27 23 12 35 13 16 Hillingdon 37 83 15 42 7 33 63 23 19 11 29 24 12 38 13 16

214

Beer (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 Hounslow 34 77 15 41 7 32 61 22 19 10 29 25 11 36 12 16 Islington 31 68 16 38 7 33 60 18 18 9 29 25 13 42 10 14 Kensington and Chelsea 28 62 16 36 7 33 58 16 16 9 26 20 13 51 8 14 Kingston upon Thames 25 56 12 30 5 26 46 15 14 8 21 15 9 34 8 11 Lambeth 43 96 22 53 10 45 84 26 25 13 40 35 18 57 14 20 Lewisham 40 90 19 48 9 39 74 25 23 12 35 31 16 44 14 18 Merton 30 67 14 36 6 30 54 19 16 9 25 19 11 38 10 14 Newham 41 94 19 52 10 40 78 27 24 12 38 38 15 36 14 20 Redbridge 37 84 16 44 8 36 66 24 20 11 31 25 12 38 13 17 Richmond upon Thames 31 69 16 38 7 34 59 19 17 10 26 17 12 49 9 15 Southwark 46 105 23 56 11 46 88 28 26 14 43 41 18 52 16 21 Sutton 29 66 12 34 6 27 50 18 16 9 23 18 10 33 10 13 Tower Hamlets 36 83 19 46 9 38 72 23 21 11 36 35 14 41 12 18 Waltham Forest 33 74 14 39 7 31 59 21 18 10 28 24 12 32 11 15 Wandsworth 45 100 24 57 10 49 89 27 26 14 41 32 20 70 15 22 Westminster 37 83 21 48 9 43 76 22 22 11 35 27 18 66 11 19

North 264 593 135 325 59 279 507 160 151 80 238 194 109 359 85 124 North East 219 499 97 263 48 206 395 140 119 66 188 173 76 214 76 100 South East 210 477 96 250 44 202 380 133 115 64 178 155 77 232 72 94

215

Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 South West 254 568 123 307 54 260 473 156 142 77 218 171 99 339 84 117 West 241 540 114 293 52 244 448 149 134 73 208 168 90 300 79 113 CAZ 70 157 39 89 16 78 141 42 41 21 67 55 31 109 22 34

Inner London 483 1,086 247 601 111 506 940 294 279 146 448 393 200 636 158 228 Outer London 705 1,590 317 838 146 684 1,264 445 383 216 581 468 251 808 237 319 Greater London 1,188 2,676 565 1,438 258 1,190 2,203 739 662 361 1,029 861 451 1,444 395 547

216

Annual expenditure on convenience goods by detailed product group 2031 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions

Beer (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 Barking and Dagenham 37 86 15 42 7 30 63 24 19 11 29 31 12 29 14 16 Barnet 61 137 30 74 13 64 113 37 34 19 51 36 23 84 19 28 Bexley 36 83 15 41 7 32 61 23 19 11 27 23 12 35 13 16 Brent 41 92 19 50 9 41 76 26 23 12 36 31 15 44 13 19 Bromley 53 120 24 62 11 52 93 34 28 17 42 31 19 64 17 24 Camden 35 79 19 44 8 39 71 21 21 11 33 28 16 54 11 17 City of London 3 6 2 4 1 3 6 2 2 1 3 2 1 6 1 2 Croydon 54 123 24 64 11 52 97 34 30 17 45 36 20 61 18 24 Ealing 49 110 23 61 11 50 92 31 27 15 43 35 17 59 16 23 Enfield 45 102 20 53 9 43 80 29 24 14 37 30 16 48 15 20 Greenwich 45 102 20 53 9 42 81 28 25 14 38 35 16 46 16 20 Hackney 34 78 18 42 8 35 66 21 20 10 33 31 14 38 11 16 Hammersmith and Fulham 30 66 16 37 7 33 59 17 17 9 28 22 13 45 9 14 Haringey 37 83 18 45 8 37 70 23 21 11 34 29 15 43 12 17 Harrow 33 74 15 40 7 33 59 21 18 10 27 20 11 38 11 15 Havering 39 89 16 44 7 34 65 25 20 12 29 25 13 37 14 17 Hillingdon 39 89 16 46 8 36 67 25 21 12 31 26 13 40 14 17

217

Beer (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 Hounslow 37 83 16 44 8 34 66 23 20 11 31 27 12 38 13 17 Islington 33 75 18 42 8 36 66 20 20 10 32 28 15 46 11 16 Kensington and Chelsea 30 66 17 38 7 35 61 17 17 9 28 21 14 53 9 15 Kingston upon Thames 27 60 12 32 5 27 48 17 15 8 22 16 10 36 9 12 Lambeth 47 106 25 58 11 50 92 29 27 14 44 39 20 62 16 22 Lewisham 43 98 20 52 9 42 80 27 24 13 38 34 17 47 15 19 Merton 32 72 14 38 7 31 58 20 18 10 27 21 12 39 11 15 Newham 45 104 21 58 11 44 87 29 26 14 43 42 16 39 15 22 Redbridge 40 90 17 48 8 38 71 26 22 12 33 27 13 41 13 18 Richmond upon Thames 33 74 17 41 7 37 63 20 19 10 28 18 13 52 10 16 Southwark 51 116 26 62 12 51 97 32 29 15 48 46 20 57 17 23 Sutton 31 70 13 36 6 29 54 20 17 9 24 20 10 35 11 14 Tower Hamlets 41 93 21 52 10 42 80 26 24 12 40 39 15 45 14 20 Waltham Forest 35 80 15 42 7 33 64 22 20 11 30 26 13 35 12 16 Wandsworth 49 108 26 61 11 54 97 29 29 15 45 35 21 76 16 24 Westminster 40 89 23 51 9 46 82 23 24 12 38 30 19 71 12 20

North 286 643 145 352 64 300 548 174 163 87 257 212 117 384 92 134 North East 241 549 106 290 53 226 435 154 131 73 206 192 84 233 83 110 South East 229 519 104 271 48 219 412 144 125 70 193 170 83 249 78 102

218

Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Sugar, confectionery and ice cream Other food Coffee, tea and cocoa Fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks Tobacco Spirits (off trade) Wine, cider & perry (off trade) Beer (off trade) and Newspapers periodicals COICOPS CODE 01.1.1 01.1.2 01.1.3 01.1.4 01.1.5 01.1.6 01.1.7 01.1.8 01.1.9 01.2.1 01.2.2 02.2 02.1.1 02.1.2 0.2.1.3 09.5.2 South West 274 613 131 331 58 279 509 169 153 83 235 186 107 360 91 126 West 258 580 122 315 56 261 480 161 144 79 224 181 95 317 85 121 CAZ 77 171 42 96 18 85 153 45 45 23 72 61 34 117 24 37

Inner London 527 1,187 269 655 122 551 1,025 321 304 159 489 433 217 685 173 248 Outer London 761 1,717 340 902 158 734 1,360 481 413 232 626 509 269 859 256 344 Greater London 1,288 2,904 610 1,558 279 1,284 2,384 802 717 391 1,115 941 486 1,543 430 592

219

Annual expenditure on comparison goods by detailed product group 2006 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions Clothing materials materials Clothing Garments & of clothing articles Other accessories clothing Shoes and other footwear Materials for maintenance & repair of the dwelling furnishings and Furniture Carpets andother floor coverings Household textiles Major household appliances whether electric not or household electric Small appliances Small tools and accessories miscellaneous and tableware Glassware, household utensils equipment and tools Major Non-durable household goods Pharmaceutical products products medical Other Therapeutic appliances equipment and Bicycles Recording media Games, toys and hobbies Equipment forsport, camping & open-air recreation Musical instrumnts& maj durables fr indoor recrtn Gardens, plantsand flowers Pets andrelated products Books Miscellaneous printed matter Stationery and drawing materials & recrding Eqpt fr recptn, reprdtn of sound & pics Photographic & cine eqpt & instruments optical processing Information equipment Telephonetelefax and equipment for appliances Electric care personal Other appliances, articles & care fr personl prods and clocks Jewellery, watches Other personal effects COICOPS CODE 03.1.1 03.1.2 03.1.3 03.2.1 04.3.1 05.1.1 05.1.2 05.2 05.3.1 05.3.2 05.5.2 05.4 05.5.1 05.6.1 06.1.1 06.1.2 06.1.3 07.1.3 09.1.4 09.3.1 09.3.2 09.2.2 09.3.3 09.3.4 09.5.1 09.5.3 09.5.4 09.1.1 09.1.2 09.1.3 08.2 12.1.2 12.1.3 12.3.1 12.3.2 Barking and Dagenham 0 89 3 22 11 57 17 9 17 2 8 7 4 16 7 1 4 1 16 16 6 1 12 10 7 6 3 25 2 9 4 3 30 9 6 Barnet 2 205 8 46 25 140 49 26 43 5 18 20 10 33 15 1 17 2 36 31 10 2 30 20 23 13 10 63 5 25 9 10 68 22 15 Bexley 113053017872715243 1312623101 8 222248 22014119 5354135 444139 Brent 215863715972917263 121252411110128218 21712179 645316104521711 Bromley 1196844271334725384 19201034161152333411231212013857520810662014 Camden 2 150 6 36 13 103 27 23 27 4 11 11 6 22 10 1 11 1 30 19 7 1 15 10 21 8 8 43 4 22 7 4 48 14 9 City of London 09021722 20 1101101021 101110120201311 Croydon 2 212 9 48 24 136 45 25 38 4 18 19 9 34 16 1 14 2 36 34 11 2 28 20 21 14 8 60 5 21 11 8 70 22 15 Ealing 2186844211263723354 15168301311323427102231620118525249 6621913 Enfield 1 170 7 39 20 111 36 19 31 4 15 15 7 28 13 1 11 2 30 28 9 2 23 17 16 11 7 49 4 18 9 7 57 18 12 Greenwich 113953315922716243 1211623101 8 126227 11613149 6393157 6461410 Hackney 2 128 5 31 10 77 22 14 18 2 9 9 3 19 8 1 7 1 26 15 5 1 11 9 16 8 5 38 2 12 9 3 41 12 8 Hammersmith and Fulha 2 121 5 28 11 81 22 18 21 3 9 9 5 18 8 1 9 1 24 15 6 0 12 8 17 7 6 34 3 17 6 3 38 11 8 Haringey 1 143 6 33 13 92 27 17 24 3 11 12 5 21 9 1 9 1 27 19 6 1 15 10 17 8 6 42 3 17 9 4 46 14 9 Harrow 112853016832815243 111262110110121207 21812128 5373136 543149 Havering 1 136 5 31 19 91 30 16 26 3 13 12 6 24 11 1 9 2 23 26 9 2 22 15 11 10 5 37 4 13 5 5 46 13 9 Hillingdon 114763419963117273 131372511110224269 2211513105394146 6491511 Hounslow 1 129 5 31 15 85 25 15 23 3 11 11 5 21 9 1 8 1 23 21 8 1 16 12 12 8 5 36 3 15 6 4 43 13 9 Islington 2 135 6 32 11 86 23 18 20 3 10 10 4 20 8 1 9 1 27 16 6 1 12 9 18 8 6 39 3 16 8 4 43 12 8 Kensington and Chelsea213163113992523274 9106199 111227167 0158207 8385255 343128 Kingston upon Thames 1 102 4 23 12 71 22 14 20 2 9 9 5 17 8 1 8 1 18 16 5 1 14 10 11 7 5 29 3 13 4 4 34 10 7 Lambeth 2 185 8 44 15 117 33 24 29 4 13 14 6 27 12 1 12 1 37 23 8 1 17 12 24 11 9 53 4 22 11 5 59 17 12 Lewisham 1 162 7 37 15 102 30 18 25 3 13 13 5 25 11 1 9 1 30 23 8 1 17 13 18 10 7 47 3 17 10 4 53 16 11 Merton 1 125 5 28 15 87 26 16 24 3 11 11 6 20 9 1 9 1 22 20 7 1 17 11 14 8 6 36 4 17 6 5 42 13 9 Newham 2 136 5 36 12 77 22 12 23 2 10 10 3 20 9 1 7 1 24 16 6 2 12 10 13 8 5 38 2 10 9 2 44 15 9 Redbridge 114363417932916263 131262411110224239 21913139 5393157 6481510 Richmond upon Thames112652816943019283 111272010111123196 11912168 7384205 642139 Southwark 2 158 6 39 14 101 29 18 24 3 12 12 5 24 10 1 9 1 33 20 7 1 15 12 20 10 7 47 3 17 10 6 51 15 10 Sutton 1 119 5 27 15 80 26 14 22 3 11 11 6 20 9 1 8 1 20 22 7 1 17 12 11 8 5 32 3 12 5 5 40 12 9 Tower Hamlets 2 124 4 33 11 77 20 14 20 2 9 9 3 19 8 1 7 1 25 15 5 1 11 9 15 7 5 34 2 12 7 6 40 11 8 Waltham Forest 1 135 5 31 13 83 25 14 21 3 11 11 4 21 9 1 8 1 24 20 7 1 15 11 13 8 5 38 3 13 9 3 44 14 9 Wandsworth 2 194 8 45 18 134 36 28 35 5 15 16 8 29 13 1 14 2 37 26 10 1 21 14 26 11 10 54 5 29 9 6 62 18 13 Westminster 2 171 7 41 16 125 31 28 33 5 12 13 7 25 11 1 13 2 35 21 9 1 18 10 25 9 10 49 6 30 7 5 55 15 10 00000000 00 0000000000 000000000000000 North 12 1102 45 258 108 734 216 146 195 25 85 90 43 169 74 8 77 10 212 149 53 7 124 85 137 65 52 323 28 140 59 36 358 107 72 North East 7 773 29 188 84 486 146 83 134 15 65 62 27 126 56 5 45 8 137 118 42 10 91 69 74 49 29 214 17 73 41 26 256 79 52 South East 7 786 31 183 88 514 160 92 135 17 68 68 31 129 56 5 50 8 144 123 40 7 98 73 82 51 32 225 19 81 41 30 260 77 54 South West 10 1064 44 244 116 720 218 140 197 24 88 93 46 168 76 7 76 11 194 160 54 8 133 91 122 66 48 302 28 133 51 39 349 105 73 West 10 999 40 236 109 667 197 127 183 22 81 83 42 158 71 7 69 11 181 147 55 10 121 83 110 61 44 281 27 124 49 32 330 101 68 CAZ 4 306 13 74 27 211 54 46 54 8 22 23 12 45 20 2 22 3 62 38 15 1 31 19 43 17 16 87 9 46 15 9 98 28 19 00000000 00 0000000000 000000000000000 Inner London 25 1,943 79 469 175 1,278 349 256 325 43 144 149 67 292 126 14 124 16 384 249 91 12 193 135 247 112 93 556 46 246 109 58 626 183 123 Outer London 21 2,780 110 639 330 1,843 588 332 519 60 243 247 120 457 208 18 191 32 484 448 153 30 374 265 279 179 114 788 71 306 131 105 928 285 196 Greater London 46 4,723 189 1,108 505 3,122 937 588 844 103 386 396 188 749 333 32 316 47 868 697 245 42 567 400 526 291 206 1,344 117 552 240 163 1,553 468 319

220

Annual expenditure on comparison goods by detailed product group 2011 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions Clothing materials materials Clothing Garments & of clothing articles Other accessories clothing Shoes and other footwear Materials for maintenance & repair of the dwelling furnishings and Furniture Carpets andother floor coverings Household textiles Major household appliances whether electric not or household electric Small appliances Small tools and accessories miscellaneous and tableware Glassware, household utensils equipment and tools Major Non-durable household goods Pharmaceutical products products medical Other Therapeutic appliances equipment and Bicycles Recording media Games, toys and hobbies sport, for Equipment camping & open-air recreation Musical instrumnts& maj durables fr indoor recrtn Gardens, plantsand flowers Pets andrelated products Books Miscellaneous printed matter Stationery and drawing materials & recrding Eqpt fr recptn, reprdtn of sound & pics Photographic & cine eqpt & instruments optical processing Information equipment Telephonetelefax and equipment for appliances Electric care personal Other appliances, articles & care fr personl prods and clocks Jewellery, watches Other personal effects COICOPS CODE 03.1.1 03.1.2 03.1.3 03.2.1 04.3.1 05.1.1 05.1.2 05.2 05.3.1 05.3.2 05.5.2 05.4 05.5.1 05.6.1 06.1.1 06.1.2 06.1.3 07.1.3 09.1.4 09.3.1 09.3.2 09.2.2 09.3.3 09.3.4 09.5.1 09.5.3 09.5.4 09.1.1 09.1.2 09.1.3 08.2 12.1.2 12.1.3 12.3.1 12.3.2 Barking and Dagenham 1 119 4 26 12 70 18 12 20 1 10 8 4 18 8 1 5 1 19 22 7 1 13 10 8 7 3 45 5 18 7 5 38 9 7 Barnet 2 268 10 54 27 168 51 34 52 4 23 23 12 37 18 2 18 2 43 41 11 2 33 21 25 14 10 111 11 51 15 16 84 21 17 Bexley 116163318992719282 1513624121 8 224309 12114119 5587258 7511210 Brent 2 202 8 43 16 114 30 21 30 2 15 14 6 27 12 1 10 2 33 27 10 1 18 12 17 10 6 77 6 31 16 7 62 16 12 Bromley 1248950291544731453 2322113617216337421223321201489610401215791816 Camden 2 189 7 41 14 119 27 28 31 3 13 13 6 24 11 1 11 2 35 23 8 0 16 9 22 9 8 73 8 44 12 6 57 13 10 City of London 0130311022 30 1112101022 101121151401411 Croydon 2 272 10 55 26 160 45 31 45 3 23 22 10 38 18 2 15 3 42 43 12 2 30 20 22 14 9 103 10 41 18 12 84 21 17 Ealing 2 239 9 51 22 149 38 30 42 3 19 18 9 33 15 2 13 2 39 35 12 2 24 16 22 12 9 90 10 49 15 10 75 18 15 Enfield 1213844211283624363 18178301411123335102241617117828341410671614 Greenwich 1 183 7 39 16 112 28 20 29 2 15 13 7 26 11 1 8 2 31 29 8 1 18 13 15 10 6 70 7 30 12 10 58 13 12 Hackney 216563611912318212 11114219 1 7 131206 1129178 66642515449119 Hammersmith and Fulha 215563311962222252 11115199 1 9 127197 0138187 65963510546119 Haringey 2 183 7 37 14 109 27 22 28 2 13 13 6 23 11 1 9 1 32 24 7 1 16 10 18 9 7 72 6 34 15 5 56 14 11 Harrow 116163417962818282 141362311110224258 21912138 561625108511311 Havering 1173635201073020312 1714726131 9 22632102231512105637268 8551311 Hillingdon 1183638201103021312 16157261311022732102221513105667279 9581412 Hounslow 1 171 6 37 16 103 26 19 28 2 14 13 6 24 11 1 9 2 27 27 9 1 18 12 14 9 5 63 7 30 11 7 54 13 11 Islington 2 175 7 38 12 103 24 23 24 2 12 12 5 22 10 1 9 1 32 21 7 0 14 9 19 8 7 68 6 32 13 7 52 12 10 Kensington and Chelsea 2 165 6 35 14 115 25 28 31 3 11 12 7 21 10 1 11 2 31 20 8 0 15 8 21 7 8 65 9 49 8 5 51 11 9 Kingston upon Thames 1 130 5 26 13 83 22 18 24 2 11 11 6 18 9 1 8 1 21 21 6 1 15 9 12 7 5 49 6 26 7 6 41 10 8 Lambeth 3 236 9 51 16 137 33 30 34 3 16 16 6 30 13 2 12 2 43 29 9 1 19 12 25 11 9 91 8 43 18 7 70 16 13 Lewisham 2 208 8 43 16 120 30 23 30 2 16 15 6 27 12 1 10 2 35 29 9 1 18 13 19 10 7 80 6 34 17 7 64 15 13 Merton 1 157 6 32 15 100 26 20 28 2 13 13 7 22 10 1 9 2 25 25 7 1 17 11 14 8 6 60 7 32 9 8 49 12 10 Newham 2 192 7 45 14 100 25 17 29 2 13 12 4 25 11 1 8 1 31 23 7 2 14 11 15 9 5 72 4 22 17 4 58 15 12 Redbridge 1 186 7 39 19 111 30 20 31 2 16 14 7 26 13 1 10 2 28 30 10 2 21 14 14 10 6 69 7 29 11 9 59 15 12 Richmond upon Thames 1 159 6 32 17 110 30 23 33 2 13 14 8 22 11 1 11 2 26 24 7 1 20 12 16 8 7 65 8 39 7 10 51 12 10 Southwark 2 213 8 47 15 125 31 24 30 2 16 15 6 28 12 2 10 1 40 27 8 1 17 12 22 11 8 85 6 35 17 9 65 15 12 Sutton 114953116932618262 1312622101 8 223277 11812128 5546247 8471110 Tower Hamlets 3 178 6 42 13 103 23 20 26 2 13 11 4 23 10 1 8 1 32 21 7 1 13 10 18 8 6 66 5 27 13 11 54 12 10 Waltham Forest 1 173 6 35 14 98 25 18 25 2 14 13 5 23 11 1 8 2 27 26 8 1 16 11 14 9 5 65 5 26 14 5 53 13 11 Wandsworth 2 250 10 52 20 159 37 36 42 3 18 18 9 32 15 2 14 2 43 33 11 1 23 14 27 12 10 94 11 57 15 10 76 18 15 Westminster 2219847171473136393 151592813213240271001910271010831159128671412 00000000 00 0000000000 000000000000000 North 13 1411 54 296 115 865 218 184 232 19 106 104 49 185 85 10 79 12 245 190 60 6 133 85 145 68 54 555 54 279 96 56 433 101 83 North East 8 1033 36 226 93 598 153 110 165 12 84 73 32 144 66 7 48 10 167 155 49 9 101 71 82 53 31 384 34 152 70 43 322 78 63 South East 7 1013 37 211 94 610 162 117 161 12 85 78 36 142 65 7 52 10 168 157 46 6 106 73 88 54 33 389 36 164 67 48 316 73 63 South West 10 1353 51 278 123 842 219 175 233 18 108 105 52 183 86 9 77 13 222 202 60 7 142 91 128 68 49 516 55 263 82 61 418 99 85 West 10 1276 47 270 116 784 199 160 217 16 99 95 48 173 81 8 71 13 209 186 62 8 130 82 116 63 45 481 52 247 79 50 398 95 79 CAZ 4 395 15 85 29 251 55 58 64 6 27 27 14 50 23 3 22 3 72 48 17 1 33 20 46 18 17 151 17 91 25 15 119 26 22 00000000 00 0000000000 000000000000000 Inner London 27 2,540 95 551 190 1,537 359 328 394 33 182 174 79 328 146 18 130 19 453 324 105 10 212 138 267 120 96 975 92 497 181 94 771 177 146 Outer London 22 3,546 130 731 352 2,163 591 417 614 44 299 281 138 499 235 23 196 38 558 567 172 25 401 264 293 186 116 1,349 139 607 213 164 1,115 269 227 Greater London 49 6,086 225 1,282 542 3,700 951 746 1,008 77 481 455 217 826 381 41 326 57 1,011 890 277 35 613 402 560 306 212 2,324 230 1,105 393 258 1,887 446 373

221

Annual expenditure on comparison goods by detailed product group 2016 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions Clothing materials materials Clothing Garments Other articles of clothing & accessories clothing footwear other and Shoes maintenance for Materials dwelling of the repair & furnishings and Furniture Carpets and other floor coverings textiles Household household Major electric whether appliances not or Small electric household appliances Small tools and accessories miscellaneous and tableware Glassware, utensils household equipment tools and Major household Non-durable goods products Pharmaceutical products medical Other Therapeutic appliances equipment and Bicycles media Recording hobbies toys and Games, Equipment for sport, & open-air camping recreation Musicalinstrumnts & maj recrtn indoor fr durables and plants Gardens, flowers products related and Pets Books Miscellaneous printed matter drawing and Stationery materials & recrding recptn, fr Eqpt reprdtn of sound & pics & eqpt & cine Photographic instruments optical Information processing equipment telefax and Telephone equipment for appliances Electric personal care & articles appliances, Other care personl fr prods clocks and Jewellery, watches effects personal Other COICOPS CODE 03.1.1 03.1.2 03.1.3 03.2.1 04.3.1 05.1.1 05.1.2 05.2 05.3.1 05.3.2 05.5.2 05.4 05.5.1 05.6.1 06.1.1 06.1.2 06.1.3 07.1.3 09.1.4 09.3.1 09.3.2 09.2.2 09.3.3 09.3.4 09.5.1 09.5.3 09.5.4 09.1.1 09.1.2 09.1.3 08.2 12.1.2 12.1.3 12.3.1 12.3.2 Barking and Dagenham115243014872015232 14105219 1 5 224289 114129 7 473628106449 9 Barnet 2 350 12 65 32 214 57 45 60 4 31 30 13 46 21 2 19 3 55 54 15 2 38 25 30 15 12 185 15 80 22 19 99 22 22 Bexley 1196637201182823302 1915728131 8 3293711122151210590937118561113 Brent 2 247 8 49 18 136 31 26 33 3 19 17 6 31 13 1 10 2 39 34 12 2 20 13 19 10 7 120 8 47 23 8 68 16 15 Bromley 1 301 10 56 31 183 49 38 48 4 29 27 11 41 19 2 16 3 44 52 14 2 35 23 23 14 9 149 14 59 17 18 86 18 20 Camden 2 233 8 47 15 143 29 35 34 3 17 16 7 28 12 2 11 2 42 29 10 1 18 11 25 9 9 115 11 66 17 7 63 13 13 City of London 0181411323 30 1112101032 102121181711511 Croydon 2 329 11 62 28 189 47 38 48 4 29 26 10 43 19 2 15 3 49 53 15 2 32 22 25 14 9 160 13 61 25 14 92 20 21 Ealing 22951058241794037464 24221038172133474314227182412914313732111831818 Enfield 1 256 9 49 23 150 37 29 38 3 23 20 8 34 15 2 11 3 40 42 12 2 26 18 19 11 7 126 10 51 18 12 73 16 16 Greenwich 1 239 8 47 19 143 31 27 33 3 21 17 7 32 14 1 9 2 39 37 11 1 21 16 18 10 7 117 9 49 19 12 67 14 15 Hackney 2 206 7 42 12 111 24 23 23 2 15 13 4 25 10 1 7 1 38 25 7 1 13 10 19 8 6 105 6 38 21 5 55 11 11 Hammersmith and Fulha 2 192 7 38 13 117 24 28 27 3 14 13 6 23 10 1 9 2 33 25 8 0 15 9 20 7 7 93 9 52 14 6 52 11 11 Haringey 2222842151292827303 1716627121 9 238299 11712209 7113850216611313 Harrow 1196738181143022302 171672612110229311022114148 696838139561313 Havering 1210740221273125333 2117730141 9 331401222517131059910391110611213 Hillingdon 1 223 7 43 22 131 32 26 34 3 20 18 8 30 14 1 10 3 33 40 12 2 24 16 14 10 6 103 10 40 13 10 63 13 15 Hounslow 1 212 7 42 18 125 28 24 31 2 18 15 7 28 12 1 9 2 33 34 11 1 19 13 15 9 6 100 9 46 15 8 60 13 13 Islington 2217743131242528273 1614525112 9 139268 11510228 7107849198581212 Kensington and Chelsea 2 203 7 40 15 138 26 35 34 3 14 14 7 24 11 1 11 2 37 25 9 0 17 9 23 8 9 102 12 74 12 6 56 11 11 Kingston upon Thames 1 160 6 30 14 100 24 22 26 2 14 13 6 21 10 1 8 2 25 26 7 1 17 11 14 7 5 78 8 40 9 7 45 9 10 Lambeth 32921058181653537374 2120735152122523712120142812101451165258791617 Lewisham 2 258 9 50 18 145 32 29 32 3 21 18 6 32 14 2 10 2 43 37 11 1 20 14 22 11 8 128 9 51 24 8 71 15 15 Merton 1189736171182725302 1615725111 9 230309 11912158 692947129531112 Newham 3256855171312924342 1816531131 8 242329 2161319107123637266701615 Redbridge 1 230 7 45 21 133 32 25 34 3 20 18 7 31 14 1 10 2 34 37 12 2 23 15 16 10 6 108 9 44 16 11 66 15 15 Richmond upon Thames 1 194 7 36 18 131 31 29 36 3 17 17 9 25 12 1 11 2 32 30 8 1 21 13 18 8 7 101 11 59 10 11 55 12 12 Southwark 3 280 10 57 18 160 34 33 34 3 21 19 6 35 14 2 10 2 52 36 10 1 19 15 26 12 9 143 9 56 26 12 77 15 16 Sutton 1181634171092722282 1715625111 8 227339 12014138 5848351010511112 Tower Hamlets 3 233 7 51 15 132 26 27 30 3 18 14 5 29 12 2 9 1 41 28 9 1 15 12 21 9 8 111 7 43 19 14 63 13 13 Waltham Forest 1211740161172722272 1715527121 8 233329 11712169 6102738206591313 Wandsworth 3 310 11 60 22 192 40 46 46 4 23 22 10 37 17 2 15 3 53 42 13 1 25 16 31 12 11 149 15 87 22 12 85 18 18 Westminster 32711054191783345424 1918932142143493312021123010111321590179741414 00000000 00 0000000000 000000000000000 North 14 1755 61 342 129 1048 234 232 254 23 137 128 52 216 95 12 81 14 300 239 74 6 147 97 165 71 60 884 73 424 135 67 484 101 103 North East 9 1310 42 266 105 740 167 142 184 15 110 92 35 171 75 8 50 12 208 198 62 9 112 82 96 56 36 624 47 236 102 53 367 79 79 South East 8 1273 43 247 106 748 175 150 178 15 110 97 38 167 73 8 53 12 208 199 57 7 117 83 101 56 38 627 50 252 96 58 357 74 78 South West 11 1656 57 317 135 1005 231 219 251 21 137 128 55 210 95 11 78 16 267 250 73 7 154 101 144 70 55 809 73 394 114 71 460 97 103 West 11 1568 53 308 128 938 210 200 235 20 127 116 50 199 90 10 71 16 252 231 76 9 141 92 130 65 50 757 70 371 111 58 439 94 96 CAZ 54931799333056074717 36331459253234886121137225219192422314036181342627 00000000 00 0000000000 000000000000000 Inner London 30 3,208 110 645 215 1,892 391 421 437 40 240 217 85 389 166 22 134 24 563 414 131 11 237 160 307 127 110 1,579 127 765 260 115 876 179 183 Outer London 24 4,354 146 834 387 2,588 625 522 664 53 382 342 145 575 261 26 197 45 673 703 210 27 435 296 328 191 129 2,123 187 912 297 192 1,231 265 276 Greater London 54 7,562 255 1,479 602 4,480 1,016 943 1,101 93 621 560 229 963 427 48 332 69 1,235 1,117 341 38 672 455 635 318 239 3,702 314 1,677 557 307 2,107 445 459

222

Annual expenditure on comparison goods by detailed product group 2021 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions Clothing materials materials Clothing Garments Other articles of clothing & clothing accessories Shoes and other footwear Materialsmaintenance for & repair of the dwelling Furniture and furnishings Carpets and other floor coverings Household textiles Major household applianceselectric whether not or Small electric household appliances Small tools and miscellaneous accessories Glassware, tableware and household utensils Major tools and equipment Non-durable household goods Pharmaceutical products Other medical products Therapeutic appliances and equipment Bicycles media Recording Games, toys and hobbies Equipmentsport, for camping & open-air recreation Musical instrumnts & maj durables fr indoor recrtn Gardens, plants and flowers Petsrelated and products Books Miscellaneous printed matter Stationerydrawing and materials & recrding fr recptn, Eqpt reprdtn of sound & pics Photographic & cine eqpt & instruments optical Information processing equipment Telephone and telefax equipment Electric appliances for personal care Other appliances, articles & prods fr personl care Jewellery, clocks and watches Other personal effects COICOPS CODE 03.1.1 03.1.2 03.1.3 03.2.1 04.3.1 05.1.1 05.1.2 05.2 05.3.1 05.3.2 05.5.2 05.4 05.5.1 05.6.1 06.1.1 06.1.2 06.1.3 07.1.3 09.1.4 09.3.1 09.3.2 09.2.2 09.3.3 09.3.4 09.5.1 09.5.3 09.5.4 09.1.1 09.1.2 09.1.3 08.2 12.1.2 12.1.3 12.3.1 12.3.2 Barking and Dagenham 1 202 5 39 17 114 23 20 27 2 19 14 5 27 11 1 5 2 32 37 12 1 17 14 10 8 5 112 9 42 14 7 54 10 12 Barnet 2 436 14 77 36 261 61 54 68 5 39 36 14 54 24 2 20 4 68 67 18 2 43 29 33 17 13 264 20 114 30 23 114 23 27 Bexley 1 243 7 44 22 143 30 28 34 3 24 19 7 33 15 1 9 3 36 46 13 2 25 17 14 10 6 128 12 52 14 9 65 12 15 Brent 2 305 10 57 20 164 33 32 37 3 25 21 7 36 15 2 11 3 48 42 14 2 22 16 21 11 8 170 11 66 30 9 79 16 18 Bromley 1 371 12 66 35 221 52 45 54 4 36 32 12 48 22 2 16 4 54 64 17 2 40 27 25 15 10 211 17 83 23 21 98 18 24 Camden 3 292 10 56 18 175 31 42 39 4 21 19 7 33 14 2 12 2 52 36 12 1 20 12 28 10 10 166 14 93 23 8 74 13 16 City of London 0 23 1 4 2 16 2 4 4 0 2 2 1 3 1 0 1 0 4 3 1 0 2 1 2 1 1 12 2 10 1 1 6 1 1 Croydon 2 402 13 72 32 226 49 45 53 4 36 31 11 49 22 2 15 4 60 65 18 2 35 25 27 15 10 223 16 85 32 16 104 20 25 Ealing 2 366 12 69 28 217 43 44 52 4 30 27 10 44 20 2 14 4 58 54 18 2 30 20 27 13 11 203 17 103 28 14 96 19 22 Enfield 1 314 10 57 26 180 39 34 43 3 29 24 9 40 18 2 12 3 48 52 15 2 29 20 20 12 8 178 13 70 24 14 83 16 20 Greenwich 2 306 9 57 22 179 35 34 39 3 27 22 8 38 16 2 10 3 50 48 14 1 24 18 21 12 8 172 12 72 25 15 80 15 19 Hackney 2 260 8 50 14 138 27 28 27 3 19 17 4 30 12 2 8 1 47 32 9 1 15 12 22 9 7 152 8 55 28 6 65 12 14 Hammersmith and Fulha 2 240 8 45 14 143 25 34 31 3 18 16 6 27 11 2 10 2 41 31 10 0 17 10 22 8 8 134 11 74 19 8 60 11 13 Haringey 2 278 9 50 17 157 30 33 34 3 21 20 6 32 13 2 10 2 47 37 11 1 19 13 22 10 8 161 10 71 28 8 71 14 16 Harrow 1 239 8 44 21 136 31 26 34 3 22 19 7 30 14 1 10 2 35 38 12 2 23 15 15 9 6 134 10 53 17 11 63 13 15 Havering 1 259 8 47 25 153 33 30 37 3 27 21 8 35 16 1 10 3 38 49 14 2 28 19 14 11 6 139 13 54 14 12 69 13 16 Hillingdon 1 275 8 51 24 159 34 30 38 3 26 22 8 36 16 1 10 3 40 49 14 2 27 19 16 11 7 145 13 57 17 12 72 14 18 Hounslow 2 261 8 49 20 151 30 29 35 3 22 19 7 33 14 1 9 3 41 42 13 1 22 15 17 10 7 142 12 64 20 9 69 13 16 Islington 2 272 9 52 15 153 27 34 30 3 20 17 6 30 12 2 10 2 48 33 10 1 17 11 25 9 8 154 10 70 25 9 68 12 15 Kensington and Chelsea 2 252 8 48 17 168 28 42 38 4 18 17 8 29 13 2 11 3 46 31 11 0 19 10 25 8 10 145 16 105 16 7 65 11 13 Kingston upon Thames 1 197 6 35 16 121 25 26 29 2 18 16 6 24 11 1 9 2 30 32 9 1 19 12 15 8 6 110 10 56 12 8 51 10 12 Lambeth 3 368 12 70 21 204 38 45 42 4 27 24 7 41 17 2 13 2 65 46 14 1 23 16 32 13 11 209 14 93 34 10 92 17 20 Lewisham 2 321 10 59 20 177 35 35 36 3 26 22 7 38 16 2 10 2 53 45 13 1 22 17 24 12 9 182 11 72 32 10 82 16 19 Merton 1 232 8 42 19 142 29 29 33 3 20 18 7 29 13 1 9 2 36 37 11 1 21 14 17 9 7 130 11 66 16 10 61 11 14 Newham 3 326 10 66 20 164 32 29 39 3 24 20 5 38 16 2 9 2 52 40 12 2 19 16 22 11 8 180 8 53 35 7 83 17 19 Redbridge 1 283 9 53 24 160 34 30 38 3 26 21 8 36 16 2 11 3 41 45 15 2 25 18 17 11 7 153 12 62 21 12 75 15 18 Richmond upon Thames 1 240 8 42 21 158 33 35 40 3 21 20 9 30 14 1 12 3 39 37 10 1 24 15 20 9 8 143 13 83 14 13 64 12 15 Southwark 3 367 12 71 22 205 39 41 41 4 29 24 7 43 17 2 11 2 67 47 13 1 23 18 31 13 11 214 12 84 36 15 93 17 20 Sutton 1 223 7 40 20 132 28 26 31 3 21 18 7 29 13 1 8 2 33 40 11 1 22 15 14 9 6 119 10 49 13 11 59 11 15 Tower Hamlets 3 302 9 63 18 167 29 34 36 3 24 18 6 36 14 2 9 2 53 36 12 2 18 14 25 10 9 164 9 64 26 17 76 14 17 Waltham Forest 1 258 8 46 17 140 28 26 30 3 22 18 6 31 13 1 8 2 40 39 11 1 19 14 17 10 6 142 9 53 25 7 67 13 16 Wandsworth 3 387 13 71 25 235 42 55 53 5 30 27 11 44 19 2 16 3 65 52 17 1 29 18 34 13 13 214 19 123 29 14 98 18 22 Westminster 3 338 11 64 22 217 36 54 48 5 25 23 10 38 17 2 14 3 60 42 15 1 24 14 33 11 12 189 19 128 22 11 86 15 18 00000000 00 0000000000 000000000000000 North 16 2191 71 405 147 1281 251 279 288 26 175 156 56 257 109 14 85 17 370 298 91 7 166 112 183 78 67 1265 94 601 180 80 560 105 125 North East 11 1654 49 319 122 914 181 173 211 17 143 114 38 205 87 9 53 15 260 250 77 10 128 96 108 62 41 903 61 338 138 64 430 82 98 South East 9 1608 51 296 122 924 190 183 204 17 143 119 42 200 85 10 57 14 260 250 71 7 134 98 114 63 43 907 65 362 130 70 419 77 97 South West 12 2049 67 372 153 1218 246 261 282 24 174 155 58 247 108 12 82 19 327 309 90 8 173 116 159 76 60 1147 94 555 150 84 528 99 124 West 13 1940 62 363 145 1137 223 238 264 22 161 141 53 234 103 11 75 19 308 286 93 9 159 106 144 71 55 1072 89 521 146 69 504 96 116 CAZ 6 621 20 119 38 376 65 89 81 8 46 41 16 70 30 4 24 5 110 77 26 1 42 26 58 21 21 349 30 199 48 21 157 28 33 00000000 00 0000000000 000000000000000 Inner London 34 4,055 130 776 250 2,340 425 512 502 46 311 270 93 468 194 26 144 29 703 523 165 12 272 188 345 142 124 2,286 164 1,096 352 139 1,027 188 227 Outer London 27 5,385 170 981 440 3,134 666 622 747 60 484 415 155 676 298 31 207 54 822 871 257 29 489 340 362 209 142 3,008 238 1,282 392 228 1,413 272 334 Greater London 61 9,441 300 1,756 690 5,473 1,091 1,134 1,249 106 795 685 247 1,144 492 56 352 84 1,525 1,394 422 41 760 528 707 351 267 5,294 403 2,377 743 367 2,441 460 561

223

Annual expenditure on comparison goods by detailed product group 2026 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions Clothing materials Garments Other articles of clothing & clothing accessories Shoes and footwear other Materials for maintenance & repair of the dwelling Furniture and furnishings Carpets and other floor coverings Household textiles Major household appliances whether electric not or Small electric household appliances Small tools and miscellaneous accessories Glassware, tableware and household utensils Major tools and equipment Non-durable household goods Pharmaceutical products Other medical products Therapeutic appliances and equipment Bicycles Recording media Games, toys and hobbies Equipment sport, for camping & open-air recreation Musical instrumnts & maj durables fr indoor recrtn Gardens, plants and flowers Pets and related products Books Miscellaneous printed matter Stationery and drawing materials & recrding Eqpt fr recptn, reprdtn of sound & pics Photographic & cine eqpt & instruments optical Information processing equipment Telephone and telefax equipment Electric appliances for personal care Other appliances, articles & care personl fr prods Jewellery, clocks and watches Other personal effects COICOPS CODE 03.1.1 03.1.2 03.1.3 03.2.1 04.3.1 05.1.1 05.1.2 05.2 05.3.1 05.3.2 05.5.2 05.4 05.5.1 05.6.1 06.1.1 06.1.2 06.1.3 07.1.3 09.1.4 09.3.1 09.3.2 09.2.2 09.3.3 09.3.4 09.5.1 09.5.3 09.5.4 09.1.1 09.1.2 09.1.3 08.2 12.1.2 12.1.3 12.3.1 12.3.2 Barking and Dagenham 1 268 7 51 22 150 30 26 36 3 25 18 7 36 1517342491622319141161481256199711315 Barnet 3 536 17 95 45 320 75 65 83 6 48 44 17 66 30 3 25 5 83 82 22 2 52 35 41 20 16 324 24 139 37 28 140 28 34 Bexley 1 299 9 54 28 176 37 34 42 3 30 23 9 40 18 2 11 4 44 57 16 2 31 22 17 13 7 158 15 64 17 11 80 14 19 Brent 3 375 12 70 25 201 41 39 45 4 30 26 8 44 19 2 13 3 59 51 18 2 27 19 26 13 9 209 13 81 36 11 97 20 22 Bromley 2 454 14 81 43 270 63 55 66 5 45 39 15 59 27 3 20 5 66 79 21 3 48 33 30 19 12 258 21 101 28 25 120 22 29 Camden 3 363 12 69 22 215 38 52 47 5 27 24 9 40 17 2 14 3 65 45 15 1 25 15 34 12 12 207 17 113 29 10 91 16 19 City of London 0 301622135 50 2213101054 20213111621312812 Croydon 2 487 16 87 38 273 60 54 65 5 43 38 13 59 26 3 18 5 72 79 22 3 43 30 32 19 12 270 20 102 39 20 126 25 30 Ealing 3 445 14 84 34 262 51 53 62 5 37 32 12 53 24 2 17 4 70 65 22 2 36 25 32 16 13 245 20 122 34 16 117 23 27 Enfield 2 384 12 70 32 220 48 42 52 4 35 30 11 48 21 2 14 4 59 63 18 2 35 25 25 15 10 217 16 86 30 17 101 20 24 Greenwich 2 380 12 71 28 222 43 42 48 4 34 27 10 47 20 2 12 3 62 60 17 2 30 23 26 15 10 213 15 88 32 18 100 18 23 Hackney 3 327 11 63 17 173 33 35 34 3 24 21 5 37 14 2 10 2 59 40 12 1 19 15 27 12 9 191 9 69 35 8 82 15 18 Hammersmith and Fulha 2 298 10 55 18 177 31 42 38 4 22 20 7 33 14 2 12 2 51 38 12 1 21 13 27 10 10 166 14 92 24 10 75 14 17 Haringey 2 344 12 62 21 192 37 39 41 4 26 24 8 39 17 2 12 3 58 45 13 1 23 17 27 12 10 200 12 85 35 9 87 17 20 Harrow 2 290 9 54 25 164 37 32 41 3 26 23 8 36 16 2 12 3 42 46 15 2 28 19 19 11 7 162 12 63 21 13 77 16 19 Havering 1 318 9 57 30 188 40 36 46 4 33 25 9 43 19 2 12 4 47 60 17 2 34 24 18 14 7 171 16 66 18 14 85 15 19 Hillingdon 1 337 10 62 30 194 41 37 46 4 32 26 10 43 19 2 12 4 49 60 17 2 32 23 19 14 8 177 16 69 21 14 89 17 22 Hounslow 2 319 10 60 25 183 36 35 42 3 27 23 9 39 17 2 11 3 49 51 17 2 26 19 20 12 8 172 14 77 24 11 84 16 20 Islington 3 339 11 64 18 191 34 43 38 4 25 22 7 38 15 2 12 2 60 41 13 1 21 14 31 12 10 192 13 87 32 12 84 15 18 Kensington and Chelsea 3 308 10 58 21 203 34 51 46 4 22 21 10 35 15 2 14 3 56 38 14 0 23 13 31 10 12 177 19 126 20 8 79 13 16 Kingston upon Thames 1 239 8 43 20 146 31 31 35 3 21 19 8 29 13 1 10 2 37 39 11 1 23 15 18 9 7 134 12 67 15 10 62 12 15 Lambeth 4 462 15 88 26 255 48 57 53 5 34 30 9 51 21 3 16 3 81 58 18 1 29 20 40 16 14 262 17 116 43 13 115 21 26 Lewisham 2 395 13 72 25 218 43 43 45 4 32 28 9 46 20 2 13 3 65 56 17 1 28 21 29 15 10 224 14 89 39 12 101 19 23 Merton 1 281 9 50 23 171 35 35 40 3 25 22 9 34 15 2 11 3 44 45 13 1 25 17 20 11 8 157 14 78 20 13 74 14 17 Newham 4 410 12 84 25 206 40 37 49 3 30 25 6 47 20 2 11 2 66 51 15 3 24 20 27 14 10 226 10 67 44 8 104 21 24 Redbridge 2 345 11 65 29 195 41 36 46 4 32 26 9 43 19 2 13 4 50 55 18 3 31 21 21 13 8 186 14 75 26 15 92 18 22 Richmond upon Thames 2 294 10 52 26 194 41 42 49 4 26 25 11 36 17 2 14 3 47 46 13 1 30 19 24 11 10 175 16 100 17 16 78 15 18 Southwark 4 462 15 90 27 257 49 51 51 5 36 30 9 54 21 3 14 3 86 59 17 1 28 23 38 17 13 271 14 104 46 18 118 21 26 Sutton 1 270 8 49 24 160 35 31 38 3 26 21 8 35 16 2 10 3 40 49 13 2 27 19 17 11 7 144 12 59 16 14 71 13 18 Tower Hamlets 4 383 11 81 23 211 37 42 45 4 30 23 7 45 18 2 12 2 67 46 15 2 23 18 31 13 11 209 11 79 33 22 97 17 21 Waltham Forest 1 313 10 56 21 170 34 32 37 3 27 22 7 37 16 2 10 3 48 48 14 1 23 17 21 12 8 173 11 64 31 9 81 16 19 Wandsworth 4 479 16 89 31 290 52 68 65 6 37 34 13 54 24 3 19 4 81 64 20 1 35 22 43 17 16 264 23 152 36 18 121 22 28 Westminster 4 417 14 79 27 268 44 67 59 6 31 28 12 47 20 3 18 4 74 52 19 1 30 17 41 14 15 233 24 157 28 14 106 18 22 0 0000000 00 0000000000 000000000000000 North 20 2709 88 502 181 1578 310 343 354 32 216 193 69 314 135 17 105 21 458 368 112 8 205 138 226 97 83 1565 115 735 225 98 693 129 155 North East 14 2068 61 400 152 1141 225 215 264 21 178 142 47 254 109 12 66 18 326 313 96 13 160 120 135 78 51 1129 76 421 172 79 537 103 123 South East 11 1991 62 368 151 1142 235 225 251 22 177 147 51 245 105 12 70 18 322 310 88 9 165 121 140 78 53 1124 80 445 161 85 518 95 120 South West 15 2513 82 457 188 1490 301 319 344 29 213 190 71 299 132 15 99 23 401 380 111 10 211 143 194 94 74 1406 114 675 185 102 648 122 152 West 16 2371 75 444 177 1384 272 288 321 27 197 171 65 283 125 14 91 23 376 350 114 12 194 130 174 87 67 1309 108 630 180 84 616 118 142 CAZ 7 772 25 148 47 466 80 110 100 10 57 51 19 87 37 5 30 6 137 96 32 2 52 33 72 26 26 435 37 245 60 27 195 34 41 0 0000000 00 0000000000 000000000000000 Inner London 43 5,053 162 968 311 2,906 529 633 622 57 387 336 114 576 242 32 178 36 877 652 204 16 337 235 429 177 154 2,852 202 1,350 441 173 1,280 234 283 Outer London 33 6,599 207 1,203 539 3,830 813 756 912 73 594 508 188 820 365 37 252 67 1,006 1,070 317 36 598 417 440 257 173 3,681 291 1,554 482 277 1,732 333 410 Greater London 76 11,653 369 2,172 850 6,736 1,342 1,389 1,534 131 981 843 302 1,396 606 69 430 103 1,884 1,722 521 52 935 652 868 434 327 6,533 493 2,905 923 450 3,013 567 692

224

Annual expenditure on comparison goods by detailed product group 2031 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions

Clothing materials Garments articlesOther of clothing & clothing accessories footwearShoes and other Materials for maintenance of& repair the dwelling and furnishingsFurniture floor and other Carpets coverings Household textiles householdMajor appliances electric whether not or Small electric household appliances Small and tools miscellaneous accessories Glassware, tableware and household utensils toolsMajor and equipment household Non-durable goods Pharmaceutical products medicalOther products Therapeutic appliances equipmentand Bicycles mediaRecording Games, toys and hobbies Equipment sport, for camping & open-air recreation maj & instrumnts Musical recrtndurables indoor fr Gardens, plants and flowers Pets and related products Books Miscellaneous printed matter Stationery and drawing materials Eqpt recptn, fr recrding & of soundreprdtn & pics Photographic & cine eqpt & instruments optical Information processing equipment Telephone and telefax equipment Electric appliances for care personal appliances,Other articles & care fr personl prods clocksJewellery, and watches personal effectsOther COICOPS CODE 03.1.1 03.1.2 03.1.3 03.2.1 04.3.1 05.1.1 05.1.2 05.2 05.3.1 05.3.2 05.5.2 05.4 05.5.1 05.6.1 06.1.1 06.1.2 06.1.3 07.1.3 09.1.4 09.3.1 09.3.2 09.2.2 09.3.3 09.3.4 09.5.1 09.5.3 09.5.4 09.1.1 09.1.2 09.1.3 08.2 12.1.2 12.1.3 12.3.1 12.3.2 Barking and Dagenham 1 358 10 69 29 200 40 35 48 4 33 24 9 47 20 2 10 4 56 66 21 2 30 25 18 15 8 198 16 74 25 12 95 17 21 Barnet 4 669 22 119 56 398 93 81 103 8 60 55 21 81 37 4 31 6 104 103 28 3 65 44 50 25 20 405 30 172 46 35 175 35 42 Bexley 1 372 11 68 34 219 46 42 52 4 37 29 11 49 22 2 13 5 55 71 20 2 38 27 21 16 8 196 18 79 21 14 99 18 23 Brent 3 469 15 88 31 251 51 48 57 5 38 32 10 54 24 3 16 4 74 64 22 3 34 24 32 17 12 262 16 100 46 14 121 25 28 Bromley 2 562 18 100 53 333 78 68 81 7 55 48 18 72 33 3 24 6 82 98 27 3 60 41 37 23 15 319 26 124 34 31 149 28 36 Camden 4 447 15 86 27 264 47 63 58 6 33 29 11 49 21 3 17 3 80 55 18 1 30 19 42 15 15 256 20 137 36 13 113 20 24 City of London 0381732647 61 3314202075 203241220316221022 Croydon 3 598 19 108 47 336 74 66 79 7 53 46 16 72 32 3 23 6 89 97 27 3 53 37 39 23 15 332 25 124 47 24 155 30 37 Ealing 4 548 17 105 42 319 63 63 76 6 46 39 15 65 29 3 20 5 86225 81 27 3 44 30 38 20 15 300 24 145 42 20 144 28 34 Enfield 2 477 15 86 39 273 59 52 64 5 44 37 13 59 27 3 17 5 73 79 23 3 43 31 31 19 12 268 20 106 37 21 126 24 30 Greenwich 3 478 15 89 35 278 54 52 60 5 42 34 13 59 25 3 15 4 78 75 21 2 38 29 32 19 12 268 19 109 40 23 125 23 29 Hackney 4 415 13 80 22 219 42 44 43 4 31 27 7 46 18 3 13 2 76 51 15 1 24 19 35 15 11 243 12 87 45 10 104 19 23 Hammersmith and Fulha 3 373 12 69 22 221 39 52 48 5 28 25 9 41 18 2 15 3 64 48 16 1 26 16 34 13 12 208 17 114 30 13 94 17 21 Haringey 3 429 14 78 25 237 46 47 50 4 33 30 9 48 21 3 14 3 73 56 16 1 28 21 34 15 12 250 15 101 45 11 109 21 25 Harrow 2 358 11 66 31 202 46 39 50 4 33 28 10 44 20 2 15 4 52 56 18 3 34 23 23 14 9 200 15 78 26 16 95 19 23

Annual expenditure on leisure goods by detailed product group 2006 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions stbshmnts ervices Recreational and sporting s Cultural services Games of chance Restaurants, cafes etc Accommodation services Hairdressing salons & personal grooming e COICOPS CODE 9.4.1 9.4.2 9.4.3 11.1.1 11.2 12.1.1 Barking and Dagenham 21 38 20 135 17 11 Barnet 73 87 31 330 60 32 Bexley 34 54 26 190 29 18 Brent 41 64 25 243 34 20 Bromley 63 81 33 298 54 30 Camden 48 61 19 250 39 19 City of London 3 4 1 16 3 1 Croydon 60 87 35 321 51 29 Ealing 58 80 30 302 48 26 Enfield 49 71 30 259 41 24 Greenwich 37 59 25 219 30 18 Hackney 32 52 19 207 25 15 Hammersmith and Fulham 40 51 16 205 32 16 Haringey 41 60 21 234 34 19 Harrow 38 53 21 192 33 18 Havering 36 56 28 200 31 19 Hillingdon 41 60 27 215 34 20 Hounslow 36 55 23 201 30 17 Islington 39 54 19 223 31 17 Kensington and Chelsea 47 54 15 220 38 17 Kingston upon Thames 35 44 16 166 29 15 Lambeth 54 76 26 307 43 23 Lewisham 43 66 26 256 35 21 Merton 41 54 21 204 34 18 Newham 27 54 22 203 22 15 Redbridge 39 59 25 214 34 20 Richmond upon Thames 50 56 18 215 41 20 Southwark 43 67 24 264 34 20 Sutton 35 49 21 179 30 17 Tower Hamlets 31 51 19 204 25 14 Waltham Forest 33 55 23 204 27 18 Wandsworth 66 84 27 336 54 27 Westminster 58 70 21 286 47 22

North 341 454 159 1789 277 147 North East 192 318 139 1177 159 98

226

stbshmnts ervices Cultural services Games of chance Recreational and sporting s Restaurants, cafes etc Accommodation services Hairdressing salons & personal grooming e COICOPS CODE 9.4.1 9.4.2 9.4.3 11.1.1 11.2 12.1.1 South East 220 327 135 1226 181 107 South West 341 451 165 1730 281 150 West 300 416 157 1578 249 134 CAZ 97 125 40 510 78 38

Inner London 569 803 280 3,195 458 245 Outer London 825 1,163 476 4,304 689 392 Greater London 1,394 1,966 756 7,499 1,147 637

227

Annual expenditure on leisure goods by detailed product group 2011 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions stbshmnts ervices Recreational and sporting s Cultural services Games of chance Restaurants, cafes etc Accommodation services Hairdressing salons & personal grooming e COICOPS CODE 9.4.1 9.4.2 9.4.3 11.1.1 11.2 12.1.1 Barking and Dagenham 22 41 22 147 19 12 Barnet 74 92 33 354 67 34 Bexley 33 53 27 192 31 18 Brent 41 66 27 255 38 21 Bromley 61 82 34 306 58 30 Camden 47 63 20 260 42 19 City of London 4 5 1 19 4 1 Croydon 60 89 37 337 56 31 Ealing 58 83 32 319 53 27 Enfield 47 71 31 266 43 24 Greenwich 39 63 27 238 34 20 Hackney 32 54 20 219 28 16 Hammersmith and Fulham 40 53 17 217 35 17 Haringey 41 62 22 245 37 20 Harrow 37 53 22 197 35 19 Havering 36 57 30 207 34 20 Hillingdon 39 60 27 218 36 20 Hounslow 37 58 25 218 33 18 Islington 39 57 20 238 35 18 Kensington and Chelsea 46 55 16 230 41 17 Kingston upon Thames 35 45 17 173 32 16 Lambeth 53 78 28 321 47 24 Lewisham 42 69 28 270 38 22 Merton 40 55 21 210 36 19 Newham 30 62 26 236 27 18 Redbridge 39 62 27 227 37 21 Richmond upon Thames 49 58 19 224 44 21 Southwark 45 73 27 292 39 22 Sutton 34 50 21 183 31 17 Tower Hamlets 35 60 22 240 31 16 Waltham Forest 32 57 25 214 30 18 Wandsworth 67 88 29 356 60 28 Westminster 59 73 22 303 52 23

North 340 470 168 1885 304 154 North East 198 343 152 1292 181 106

228

stbshmnts ervices Cultural services Games of chance Recreational and sporting s Restaurants, cafes etc Accommodation services Hairdressing salons & personal grooming e COICOPS CODE 9.4.1 9.4.2 9.4.3 11.1.1 11.2 12.1.1 South East 219 340 143 1298 199 112 South West 337 463 172 1806 306 155 West 298 429 166 1654 272 139 CAZ 98 131 43 543 87 40

Inner London 578 851 303 3,442 513 261 Outer London 814 1,194 498 4,493 750 405 Greater London 1,392 2,045 802 7,935 1,263 666

229

Annual expenditure on leisure goods by detailed product group 2016 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions stbshmnts ervices Recreational and sporting s Cultural services Games of chance Restaurants, cafes etc Accommodation services Hairdressing salons & personal grooming e COICOPS CODE 9.4.1 9.4.2 9.4.3 11.1.1 11.2 12.1.1 Barking and Dagenham 23 44 23 163 20 13 Barnet 80 101 36 400 74 37 Bexley 33 55 27 203 32 19 Brent 41 68 27 270 39 22 Bromley 62 84 34 322 59 31 Camden 49 66 20 279 44 21 City of London 4 5 1 23 4 2 Croydon 60 91 37 354 57 32 Ealing 60 87 32 341 55 28 Enfield 47 73 30 277 44 25 Greenwich 42 70 29 270 38 22 Hackney 34 57 21 239 30 17 Hammersmith and Fulham 41 56 18 235 37 18 Haringey 42 64 23 260 38 21 Harrow 38 55 22 208 37 19 Havering 36 59 30 218 35 20 Hillingdon 39 62 27 230 37 21 Hounslow 38 61 25 234 35 19 Islington 41 60 20 256 37 19 Kensington and Chelsea 48 58 17 246 43 18 Kingston upon Thames 36 47 17 186 33 17 Lambeth 55 83 29 347 49 26 Lewisham 44 73 29 291 40 23 Merton 40 56 21 220 37 19 Newham 34 70 28 276 31 20 Redbridge 40 64 27 242 39 22 Richmond upon Thames 50 60 19 237 46 22 Southwark 49 81 29 334 44 24 Sutton 34 51 21 192 32 18 Tower Hamlets 39 66 24 274 35 18 Waltham Forest 33 59 25 228 31 19 Wandsworth 69 93 30 386 63 30 Westminster 61 76 23 327 55 24

North 353 497 173 2039 322 164 North East 210 368 159 1424 195 115

230

stbshmnts ervices Cultural services Games of chance Recreational and sporting s Restaurants, cafes etc Accommodation services Hairdressing salons & personal grooming e COICOPS CODE 9.4.1 9.4.2 9.4.3 11.1.1 11.2 12.1.1 South East 230 362 148 1420 213 120 South West 344 481 174 1922 319 162 West 305 447 168 1765 284 146 CAZ 102 139 44 591 93 43

Inner London 610 913 317 3,784 551 283 Outer London 833 1,241 504 4,785 782 425 Greater London 1,443 2,154 821 8,569 1,333 707

231

Annual expenditure on leisure goods by detailed product group 2021 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions stbshmnts ervices Recreational and sporting s Cultural services Games of chance Restaurants, cafes etc Accommodation services Hairdressing salons & personal grooming e COICOPS CODE 9.4.1 9.4.2 9.4.3 11.1.1 11.2 12.1.1 Barking and Dagenham 25 49 25 183 21 15 Barnet 82 105 36 418 73 39 Bexley 34 57 27 210 31 20 Brent 42 71 27 281 38 23 Bromley 63 87 34 333 58 33 Camden 51 69 21 295 44 22 City of London 5 6 2 25 4 2 Croydon 61 93 37 363 55 33 Ealing 61 91 33 356 55 30 Enfield 48 74 30 285 43 26 Greenwich 45 75 30 292 39 24 Hackney 35 61 22 255 30 19 Hammersmith and Fulham 43 58 18 247 37 19 Haringey 43 67 23 274 38 22 Harrow 38 56 22 213 35 20 Havering 37 61 30 225 34 21 Hillingdon 40 64 27 238 36 22 Hounslow 39 63 26 242 34 20 Islington 42 63 21 271 37 20 Kensington and Chelsea 49 60 17 258 43 19 Kingston upon Thames 36 49 17 192 33 17 Lambeth 57 87 29 368 50 27 Lewisham 45 76 29 304 40 25 Merton 41 58 21 226 36 20 Newham 36 75 30 295 31 22 Redbridge 41 66 28 250 38 22 Richmond upon Thames 51 62 19 247 45 23 Southwark 53 89 31 368 45 27 Sutton 34 52 21 198 31 18 Tower Hamlets 42 72 25 298 36 20 Waltham Forest 33 60 25 234 30 20 Wandsworth 71 97 30 405 63 32 Westminster 63 80 23 344 55 25

North 364 519 176 2141 320 173 North East 218 389 163 1510 195 122

232

stbshmnts ervices Cultural services Games of chance Recreational and sporting s Restaurants, cafes etc Accommodation services Hairdressing salons & personal grooming e COICOPS CODE 9.4.1 9.4.2 9.4.3 11.1.1 11.2 12.1.1 South East 239 383 152 1507 213 128 South West 352 498 175 1999 314 170 West 311 463 169 1834 279 153 CAZ 106 147 45 627 93 46

Inner London 635 968 328 4,024 553 303 Outer London 848 1,284 508 4,967 767 444 Greater London 1,484 2,251 836 8,991 1,320 746

233

Annual expenditure on leisure goods by detailed product group 2026 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions stbshmnts ervices Recreational and sporting s Cultural services Games of chance Restaurants, cafes etc Accommodation services Hairdressing salons & personal grooming e COICOPS CODE 9.4.1 9.4.2 9.4.3 11.1.1 11.2 12.1.1 Barking and Dagenham 28 55 28 204 24 17 Barnet 85 109 37 432 75 41 Bexley 35 59 28 218 32 20 Brent 44 73 28 290 40 24 Bromley 64 89 36 342 59 33 Camden 52 72 22 308 45 23 City of London 5 6 2 27 5 2 Croydon 62 95 38 369 56 33 Ealing 61 92 34 361 55 30 Enfield 49 77 31 293 44 27 Greenwich 46 78 32 304 40 25 Hackney 37 64 23 269 32 20 Hammersmith and Fulham 44 61 19 258 39 20 Haringey 43 69 24 283 38 23 Harrow 38 57 22 217 36 20 Havering 38 63 31 232 35 22 Hillingdon 41 66 28 245 37 22 Hounslow 39 65 27 248 35 21 Islington 44 67 22 284 38 21 Kensington and Chelsea 50 62 17 264 43 20 Kingston upon Thames 36 50 18 195 33 18 Lambeth 60 92 31 388 52 29 Lewisham 47 78 30 315 41 26 Merton 41 59 22 229 36 20 Newham 38 79 31 312 33 23 Redbridge 41 68 28 257 39 23 Richmond upon Thames 53 64 20 254 47 24 Southwark 55 94 33 390 47 28 Sutton 35 53 22 202 32 19 Tower Hamlets 44 77 27 318 38 21 Waltham Forest 34 61 25 239 31 20 Wandsworth 74 101 31 421 65 33 Westminster 65 83 24 357 57 26

North 375 540 185 2225 330 180 North East 228 409 172 1589 204 128

234

stbshmnts ervices Cultural services Games of chance Recreational and sporting s Restaurants, cafes etc Accommodation services Hairdressing salons & personal grooming e COICOPS CODE 9.4.1 9.4.2 9.4.3 11.1.1 11.2 12.1.1 South East 247 399 159 1569 220 133 South West 360 513 182 2058 321 175 West 317 475 175 1882 284 157 CAZ 111 154 48 656 96 48

Inner London 661 1,014 346 4,215 576 316 Outer London 866 1,323 528 5,109 784 456 Greater London 1,528 2,337 873 9,324 1,359 772

235

Annual expenditure on leisure goods by detailed product group 2031 (2003 prices) Expenditure figures in £millions

stbshmnts ervices Recreational and sporting s Cultural services Games of chance Restaurants, cafes etc Accommodation services Hairdressing salons & personal grooming e COICOPS CODE 9.4.1 9.4.2 9.4.3 11.1.1 11.2 12.1.1 Barking and Dagenham 31 62 31 229 27 19 Barnet 88 114 40 453 79 43 Bexley 37 62 29 229 34 21 Brent 46 77 30 305 42 25 Bromley 66 93 38 356 61 35 Camden 53 75 23 319 46 24 City of London 6 7 2 29 5 2 Croydon 63 98 39 381 58 34 Ealing 61 95 35 370 55 31 Enfield 51 80 33 306 46 28 Greenwich 48 83 34 321 42 26 Hackney 40 69 25 287 34 21 Hammersmith and Fulham 46 64 20 271 41 21 Haringey 44 72 26 295 39 24 Harrow 40 59 23 225 37 21 Havering 39 65 32 242 36 23 Hillingdon 43 69 30 255 39 23 Hounslow 40 67 28 257 36 21 Islington 47 71 23 302 41 22 Kensington and Chelsea 50 63 18 271 44 20 Kingston upon Thames 37 51 19 199 34 18 Lambeth 64 98 33 414 55 31 Lewisham 49 82 32 329 43 27 Merton 41 61 23 236 37 21 Newham 40 85 34 336 35 25 Redbridge 43 71 30 267 40 24 Richmond upon Thames 54 66 21 264 48 25 Southwark 58 101 36 417 50 30 Sutton 36 55 23 209 33 19 Tower Hamlets 47 83 29 344 41 23 Waltham Forest 36 64 27 250 32 21 Wandsworth 77 106 33 443 68 35 Westminster 68 87 25 374 59 28

North 391 568 195 2337 343 188

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stbshmnts ervices Cultural services Games of chance Recreational and sporting s Restaurants, cafes etc Accommodation services Hairdressing salons & personal grooming e COICOPS CODE 9.4.1 9.4.2 9.4.3 11.1.1 11.2 12.1.1 North East 242 438 185 1698 216 136 South East 258 420 169 1651 229 139 South West 373 536 192 2146 333 182 West 326 495 184 1954 292 162 CAZ 116 162 51 691 101 51

Inner London 694 1,074 368 4,457 603 334 Outer London 896 1,383 557 5,329 811 475 Greater London 1,590 2,456 925 9,786 1,414 809

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APPENDIX 8 - RESULTS FROM STAGE 2A (BASE SCENARIO)

Turnover estimates – base scenario

A8.1 The following tables summarise expenditure on comparison goods for 2006-2031. The 2031 figures are based on the ‘Baseline’ scenario. This assumes that there will be no further development in London, but that population, workforce and expenditure will grow according to GLA/Experian forecasts

A8.2 The tables list the classification of each centre (International, Metropolitan, Major, District). ‘Additional’ has been used to describe retail centres where no classification is available: these include retail warehouse parks, out-of-town shopping malls, neighbourhood centres and convenience superstores.

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Table 3: Modelled comparison goods expenditure for town centres (2006 – 2031) Base scenario. Modelled Expenditure (£m) Centre Name Classification Borough Floorspace (m²) 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Barking & Dagenham Major Barking and Dagenham 20,446 88 104 124 157 198 258 Chadwell Heath District Barking and Dagenham 5,275 14 17 19 24 29 37 Dagenham & Heathway District Barking and Dagenham 10,382 35 41 48 60 75 97 Residual Residual Barking and Dagenham 33,594 61 71 84 104 131 169 Edgware Major Barnet 22,143 92 108 131 162 201 256 Brent Street District Barnet 2,705 20 24 29 36 45 56 Burnt Oak District Barnet 9,051 37 44 53 65 81 103 Chipping Barnet District Barnet 13,489 83 98 118 146 182 229 Church End, Finchley District Barnet 7,934 60 70 84 104 127 158 Colindale/The Hyde District Barnet 5,959 15 20 25 30 39 54 East Finchley District Barnet 4,204 16 18 21 26 31 38 Golders Green District Barnet 5,747 20 24 29 36 44 55 Hendon central District Barnet 11,715 31 37 45 55 69 87 Mill Hill District Barnet 8,706 22 26 32 39 49 62 New Barnet District Barnet 10,558 23 27 32 40 49 62 North Finchley District Barnet 24,813 46 54 65 80 97 121 Temple Fortune District Barnet 8,815 32 38 46 57 70 87 Whetstone District Barnet 6,494 21 24 29 36 44 55 Residual Residual Barnet 172,887 495 580 701 865 1070 1354 Bexleyheath Major Bexley 48,831 247 287 342 424 527 666 Crayford District Bexley 6,504 42 50 60 74 93 117 Erith District Bexley 7,700 20 23 27 34 43 55 Sidcup District Bexley 9,474 37 43 50 62 76 96 Welling District Bexley 19,563 55 62 73 90 112 143

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Modelled Expenditure (£m) Centre Name Classification Borough Floorspace (m²) 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Residual Residual Bexley 8,864 21 24 29 36 44 55 Kilburn Major Brent 20,230 76 90 108 133 164 206 Wembley Major Brent 16,388 26 31 37 45 57 73 Cricklewood District Brent 30,638 72 85 102 126 155 194 Ealing Road District Brent 2,290 11 13 15 18 22 29 Harlesden District Brent 10,972 30 35 41 50 62 79 Kenton District Brent 4,055 16 19 21 26 32 40 Kingsbury District Brent 6,862 36 42 49 60 74 95 Neasden District Brent 2,573 17 19 22 26 34 46 Preston Road District Brent 2,155 8 9 10 13 16 20 Wembley Park District Brent 8,482 18 21 25 30 37 47 Willesden Green District Brent 7,437 17 20 23 29 35 43 Residual Residual Brent 48,656 211 247 294 360 447 567 Bromley Metropolitan Bromley 108,222 444 515 607 749 924 1,163 Orpington Major Bromley 28,462 83 95 112 138 171 218 Beckenham District Bromley 8,848 34 39 45 55 67 83 Crystal Palace District Bromley 3,491 16 18 21 26 31 39 Penge District Bromley 12,250 28 31 36 44 54 67 Petts Wood District Bromley 7,238 21 24 27 33 41 51 West Wickham District Bromley 10,025 52 59 68 83 102 128 Residual Residual Bromley 40,737 110 128 149 185 230 294 Camden Town Major Camden 27,037 287 345 418 522 651 831 Hampstead District Camden 8,459 48 55 67 82 100 123 Kentish Town District Camden 7,432 52 60 70 87 107 135 Swiss Cottage/Finchley Road District Camden 12,172 41 48 58 71 87 108 West Hampstead District Camden 3,024 18 20 25 31 37 45

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Modelled Expenditure (£m) Centre Name Classification Borough Floorspace (m²) 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Residual Residual Camden 31,478 96 116 141 179 223 285 Cheapside CAZ Frontage City of London 8,995 46 56 68 86 108 139 Fleet Street CAZ Frontage City of London 4,790 24 29 35 44 56 71 Leadenhall Market CAZ Frontage City of London 9,120 35 43 53 68 85 109 Liverpool Street CAZ Frontage City of London 23,143 187 224 272 342 429 549 Moorgate CAZ Frontage City of London 27,433 228 272 329 413 516 659 Residual Residual City of London 67,645 420 503 607 767 958 1222 Croydon Metropolitan Croydon 180,531 636 738 862 1,053 1,289 1,612 Addiscombe District Croydon 3,490 18 21 24 29 36 44 Coulsdon District Croydon 6,396 18 21 26 32 39 49 Norbury District Croydon 14,669 32 37 42 51 64 82 Purley District Croydon 6,148 14 16 19 23 29 36 South Norwood District Croydon 5,166 12 13 15 19 22 28 Thornton Heath District Croydon 12,672 28 32 37 45 55 69 Upper Norwood District Croydon 4,617 15 17 20 24 30 37 Residual Residual Croydon 122,487 491 568 663 810 995 1250 Ealing Metropolitan Ealing 39,576 239 277 326 400 486 605 Southall Major Ealing 23,572 76 88 105 129 163 213 Acton District Ealing 8,696 28 32 38 47 56 69 Greenford District Ealing 7,952 22 25 29 36 45 59 Hanwell District Ealing 3,902 7 8 9 11 14 19 Residual Residual Ealing 56,576 135 155 179 219 272 349 Enfield Town Major Enfield 30,888 178 206 244 301 375 476 Angel Edmonton District Enfield 9,569 13 15 17 21 26 33 Edmonton Green District Enfield 11,800 14 16 18 22 27 35 Palmers Green District Enfield 10,263 29 33 38 47 57 71

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Modelled Expenditure (£m) Centre Name Classification Borough Floorspace (m²) 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Southgate District Enfield 8,141 24 28 33 40 48 60 Residual Residual Enfield 80,469 192 222 263 322 400 511 Eltham Major Greenwich 27,198 109 126 149 184 230 293 Woolwich Major Greenwich 30,385 187 220 263 326 411 532 Greenwich West District Greenwich 6,713 28 34 42 53 65 81 Plumstead District Greenwich 2,644 7 8 9 11 14 18 Thamesmead District Greenwich 6,308 25 29 34 41 52 70 Residual Residual Greenwich 58,522 148 176 212 266 331 422 Dalston Major Hackney 25,567 73 86 102 126 157 200 Finsbury Park District Hackney 12,353 28 32 38 47 58 73 Mare Street District Hackney 12,464 38 46 54 68 84 107 Stoke Newington District Hackney 7,457 35 40 47 58 73 94 Residual Residual Hackney 19,338 78 93 110 137 171 218 Fulham Major Hammersmith and Fulham 5,831 85 103 125 156 193 242 Hammersmith Major Hammersmith and Fulham 26,345 150 175 207 255 309 381 Shepherds Bush District Hammersmith and Fulham 14,095 97 113 133 164 200 249 Residual Residual Hammersmith and Fulham 24,564 91 106 125 152 183 224 Wood Green Metropolitan Haringey 76,828 299 347 406 499 613 769 Crouch End District Haringey 11,165 34 39 45 55 66 82 Green Lanes District Haringey 4,928 14 17 20 24 30 38 Muswell Hill District Haringey 10,084 50 57 67 82 98 119 Tottenham District Haringey 5,751 33 38 44 55 69 89 West Green Road District Haringey 3,682 18 20 23 29 36 46 Residual Residual Haringey 26,186 119 137 160 197 246 316 Harrow Metropolitan Harrow 69,401 308 355 418 511 625 782 North Harrow District Harrow 1,887 9 11 12 15 18 23

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Modelled Expenditure (£m) Centre Name Classification Borough Floorspace (m²) 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Pinner District Harrow 5,354 14 16 18 22 27 33 Rayners Lane District Harrow 5,801 14 16 18 22 27 34 South Harrow District Harrow 7,714 27 31 35 43 53 68 Stanmore District Harrow 2,925 14 16 19 24 29 36 Wealdstone District Harrow 10,144 27 31 36 44 54 66 Residual Residual Harrow 12,508 27 30 35 43 52 65 Romford Metropolitan Havering 103,730 355 417 494 611 753 943 Collier Row District Havering 4,393 20 24 28 34 42 53 Elm Park District Havering 1,858 4 5 5 6 8 10 Harold Hill District Havering 3,345 9 11 13 16 20 25 Hornchurch District Havering 11,710 40 46 54 66 81 100 Rainham District Havering 5,969 10 12 15 18 23 29 Upminster District Havering 12,867 53 61 73 90 110 138 Residual Residual Havering 58,821 123 143 171 210 258 323 Uxbridge Metropolitan Hillingdon 74,811 331 381 451 552 676 843 Eastcote District Hillingdon 6,019 19 22 25 31 37 47 Hayes District Hillingdon 12,246 45 52 61 75 93 118 Northwood District Hillingdon 2,965 15 18 21 26 31 39 Ruislip District Hillingdon 11,213 44 50 59 71 87 109 Yiewsley/West Drayton District Hillingdon 6,823 25 29 34 42 51 63 Residual Residual Hillingdon 91,872 245 281 331 406 501 633 Hounslow Metropolitan Hounslow 68,602 269 315 373 458 569 725 Chiswick Major Hounslow 22,286 165 193 228 280 338 416 Brentford District Hounslow 4,386 19 22 26 31 38 48 Feltham High Street District Hounslow 13,871 41 48 57 69 87 112 Residual Residual Hounslow 29,991 56 66 76 95 116 150

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Modelled Expenditure (£m) Centre Name Classification Borough Floorspace (m²) 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Angel Major Islington 31,321 186 220 262 327 406 513 Nags Head Major Islington 27,746 107 125 147 182 226 286 Archway District Islington 7,100 29 33 39 48 58 72 Residual Residual Islington 12,496 58 67 79 97 120 151 Kensington High Street Major Kensington and Chelsea 54,373 257 309 375 467 573 713 Kings Road East Major Kensington and Chelsea 80,045 338 420 519 653 817 1,044 Fulham Road (east) District Kensington and Chelsea 15,974 117 140 169 210 258 323 Earls Court Road District Kensington and Chelsea 14,645 26 30 35 44 52 64 Fulham Road (west) District Kensington and Chelsea 16,577 59 70 84 104 127 159 Kings Road (west) District Kensington and Chelsea 15,616 56 69 84 106 132 167 Notting Hill Gate District Kensington and Chelsea 9,751 42 52 64 80 101 128 Portobello Road District Kensington and Chelsea 23,549 127 151 180 224 278 352 South Kensington District Kensington and Chelsea 5,874 42 49 58 72 87 108 Residual Residual Kensington and Chelsea 31,929 145 170 203 253 311 388 Kingston Metropolitan Kingston upon Thames 169,489 646 754 901 1,113 1,370 1,715 New Malden District Kingston upon Thames 12,862 31 36 42 52 65 82 Surbiton District Kingston upon Thames 6,881 20 23 27 34 42 53 Tolworth District Kingston upon Thames 7,605 22 26 31 38 47 60 Residual Residual Kingston upon Thames 22,481 45 52 61 76 94 120 Brixton Major Lambeth 30,810 86 101 119 148 185 236 Streatham Major Lambeth 19,864 65 75 88 108 133 168 Clapham High Street District Lambeth 8,964 45 52 61 76 93 118 Stockwell District Lambeth 12,708 14 16 19 23 28 36 Tulse Hill District Lambeth 3,530 7 8 9 11 13 16 West Norwood District Lambeth 6,901 8 9 11 13 16 20 Lower Marsh CAZ Frontage Lambeth 10,721 42 51 62 79 99 125

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Modelled Expenditure (£m) Centre Name Classification Borough Floorspace (m²) 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Residual Residual Lambeth 19,583 38 44 51 65 81 104 Catford Major Lewisham 9,056 49 57 66 82 101 129 Lewisham Major Lewisham 49,788 248 290 344 427 524 658 Lee Green District Lewisham 2,345 11 12 14 18 22 28 Blackheath District Lewisham 1,827 3 3 4 5 6 7 Deptford District Lewisham 9,331 23 28 33 42 51 62 Downham District Lewisham 4,646 5 5 6 7 10 13 Forest Hill District Lewisham 3,685 22 25 29 36 44 55 New Cross District Lewisham 16,927 29 35 42 52 63 78 Sydenham District Lewisham 8,765 22 25 29 36 44 56 Residual Residual Lewisham 23,958 54 64 76 94 116 150 Wimbledon Major Merton 47,799 240 276 325 398 487 606 Mitcham District Merton 5,463 30 35 40 49 60 76 Morden District Merton 5,741 27 31 36 45 55 70 Residual Residual Merton 44,869 121 139 162 199 244 304 East Ham Major Newham 20,728 101 119 142 179 226 293 Stratford Major Newham 22,514 129 158 196 245 305 388 Canning Town District Newham 12,196 19 25 31 41 52 69 East Beckton District Newham 12,489 24 30 36 46 60 80 Forest Gate District Newham 11,205 34 41 49 61 76 97 Upton Park District Newham 22,184 67 80 95 119 149 193 Residual Residual Newham 56,763 148 177 213 268 342 446 Ilford Metropolitan Redbridge 127,546 365 432 513 637 793 1,010 Barkingside District Redbridge 8,389 39 46 54 67 83 106 Gants Hill District Redbridge 5,701 31 36 43 52 65 82 South Woodford District Redbridge 10,739 29 34 40 49 60 75

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Modelled Expenditure (£m) Centre Name Classification Borough Floorspace (m²) 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Wanstead District Redbridge 5,027 15 17 21 25 31 38 Residual Residual Redbridge 36,845 99 116 137 170 211 266 Richmond Major Richmond upon Thames 38,027 196 229 271 333 408 510 East Sheen District Richmond upon Thames 10,203 51 59 70 85 104 129 Teddington District Richmond upon Thames 9,648 30 35 42 51 63 80 Twickenham District Richmond upon Thames 13,110 39 47 56 69 85 108 Whitton District Richmond Upon Thames 5,236 10 11 13 16 20 27 Residual Residual Richmond upon Thames 39,341 120 139 165 201 248 312 Peckham Major Southwark 27,640 92 110 133 168 207 263 Camberwell District Southwark 6,425 33 39 47 59 73 94 Dulwich - Lordship Lane District Southwark 5,741 18 21 25 31 38 46 Elephant and Castle District Southwark 4,184 20 24 29 37 46 60 Surrey Quays District Southwark 18,532 71 89 111 142 177 223 Walworth Road District Southwark 21,349 99 117 142 179 225 291 Borough High Street CAZ Frontage Southwark 17,885 108 133 164 208 260 333 Residual Residual Southwark 40,553 142 171 208 265 330 423 Sutton Metropolitan Sutton 95,782 325 376 443 544 666 830 Cheam District Sutton 6,128 13 15 18 22 27 33 North Cheam District Sutton 5,682 26 30 35 43 53 67 Rosehill District Sutton 2,087 13 15 17 21 26 34 Wallington District Sutton 7,169 18 21 25 30 37 47 Worcester Park District Sutton 10,035 22 25 30 37 46 58 Residual Residual Sutton 6,930 31 34 40 49 59 74 Canary Wharf Major Tower Hamlets 36,300 272 338 417 531 663 847 Bethnal Green District Tower Hamlets 7,387 40 49 59 75 93 120 Chrisp Street District Tower Hamlets 11,008 24 30 37 48 60 77

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Modelled Expenditure (£m) Centre Name Classification Borough Floorspace (m²) 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Crossharbour District Tower Hamlets 5,741 5 5 6 7 10 13 Poplar District Tower Hamlets 4,799 28 36 44 57 72 93 Roman Road (east) District Tower Hamlets 12,404 31 38 47 59 73 94 Watney Market District Tower Hamlets 12,698 87 106 130 166 209 269 Whitechapel District Tower Hamlets 5,136 32 40 49 63 79 102 Residual Residual Tower Hamlets 38,433 152 188 231 291 369 476 Walthamstow Major Waltham Forest 40,083 263 307 361 443 547 696 Bakers Arms District Waltham Forest 14,784 29 34 39 48 59 74 Leyton - High Road Leyton District Waltham Forest 3,642 13 16 19 23 28 35 Leytonstone District Waltham Forest 16,886 46 55 66 81 99 124 North Chingford District Waltham Forest 8,527 24 29 34 42 52 67 South Chingford District Waltham Forest 9,053 23 27 32 39 48 61 Wood Street District Waltham Forest 3,735 12 14 16 20 24 30 Residual Residual Waltham Forest 12,088 24 29 36 44 54 69 Clapham Junction Major Wandsworth 34,377 159 184 218 269 330 414 Putney Major Wandsworth 28,100 152 177 209 257 314 391 Tooting Major Wandsworth 33,000 187 215 252 309 378 472 Wandsworth Major Wandsworth 21,969 84 98 115 142 174 217 Balham District Wandsworth 9,598 28 32 38 46 56 69 Residual Residual Wandsworth 31,340 89 102 119 148 182 229 Knightsbridge International Westminster 148,518 842 1,009 1,224 1,523 1,894 2,396 West End International Westminster 858,396 4,179 5,102 6,265 7,847 9,818 12,495 Queensway/Westbourne Grove Major Westminster 24,700 154 181 216 267 329 412 Edgware Road/Church Street District Westminster 9,283 68 80 95 118 146 183 Harrow Road District Westminster 4,081 26 31 36 44 55 70 Praed Street/Paddington District Westminster 10,888 45 53 63 78 96 121

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Modelled Expenditure (£m) Centre Name Classification Borough Floorspace (m²) 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 St John's Wood District Westminster 4,373 27 31 38 46 57 72 Edgware Road South CAZ Frontage Westminster 1,719 5 6 8 9 12 16 Marylebone High Street CAZ Frontage Westminster 20,007 149 174 207 257 316 395 Victoria Street CAZ Frontage Westminster 37,362 248 290 345 429 529 668 Warwick Way/Tachbrook St CAZ Frontage Westminster 8,214 32 37 45 56 70 90 Residual Residual Westminster 34,161 94 108 127 157 201 257

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APPENDIX 9 - PIPELINE DEVELOPMENTS

List of pipeline developments

7.18 The scale and timelines for the major retail developments and redevelopments that are proposed for London over the coming years have been assessed by the GLA and consultants and evaluated by the boroughs in terms of accuracy. The information has been gathered from the public domain, directly from the boroughs, and estimated/modelled in developments for which actual data is not forthcoming. Using the model, Experian then estimated the extent to which the new developments will affect consumer patterns and expenditure flows throughout London. Understanding the nature and scale of these developments will help formulate a picture of how London’s retailing landscape will evolve over the next decade and beyond.

7.19 The following major retail developments are either committed, approved or proposed to commence in the short to medium term:

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Table 4: List of Pipeline developments by Borough

Additional Comparison Year of Borough Site Name Status Planning Ref No. Floorspace Completion (m2)

Barking and Dagenham Fresh Wharf Estate, Fresh Wharf Road 7,440 FY2007 Pending decision - Barking and Dagenham Town Square, Phase 2, Clockhouse Avenue 3,604 Under construction Under construction 06/01249/REM Barking and Dagenham Lidl - site of Robin Hood Public House, Longbridge Road 1,113 Not started Not Started 06/01230/FUL Barking and Dagenham Fishing Smack , Abbey Road 202 Pending Not Started 07/00136/FUL Barnet Brent Cross Cricklewood 60,776 - Application - Barnet 612-614, Finchley Road 2,166 FY2008 Not started C02948AM/02 Barnet Former Courts Unit, Staples Corner Retail Park, 200, Edgware Road 2,142 FY2009 Not started C03021DF/06 Barnet Grahame Park Estate, Lanacre Avenue 1,870 FY2009 Not started W01731JS/04 Barnet Staples Corner Retail Park, Edgware Road 1,012 FY2008 Not started C09777CB03 Barnet Unit C1 Brent Cross Shopping Centre, Prince Charles Drive 854 FY2007 Not started W00560ML/06 Bexley B & Q Plc Sidcup, Sidcup-By-Pass 30,261 Not started Not started 06/05574/OUTM Bexley BT Crayford TSVC, 1, Roman Way 3,595 Not started Not started 06/03405/OUTM Bexley Upper Wickham Lane 1,026 FY2008 Not started 0202574F Bexley Site Of Erith Small Business Centre & Former Odeon Building, Erith High Street 981 Unknown Under construction - Bexley In the area of Tavy Bridge, Tavy Bridge 906 Not started Not started 04/03641/OUTEA Bexley J Sainsbury, Stadium Way 267 Not started Not started 06/11504/FULM Bexley Embassy Court & 102, Welling High Street 237 Not started Not started 06/02680/FULM Brent Oriental City, 399 Edgware Road 14,677 Unknown Permission 06/1652 Brent Central Square, Station Grove 8,176 01/06/2008 Under Construction 681239 Brent Land Next To Wembley Stadium Station, South Way 5,980 FY2007 Not started -

250

Additional Comparison Year of Borough Site Name Status Planning Ref No. Floorspace Completion (m2)

Brent 1-11 & 20-41, Central Square 2,976 Unknown Under construction - Brent Land Surrounding Wembley Stadium, Engineers Way 2,944 FY2009 Not started - Brent Land Surrounding Wembley Stadium, Plot W04, Empire Way 2,734 FY2009 Not started - Brent 1a,1b,1c,2a,2b,3-9inc, & 18 Wembley Retail Park, Engineers Way 1,992 FY2009 Not started - Brent Allied, 3, Burnt Oak Broadway 1,732 FY2010 Not started - Brent Marvelfairs House, 255, Ealing Road 1,600 FY2008 Not started - Brent Asda Superstore, Forty Lane 1,115 Unknown Not started - Bromley Bromley Town Centre 38,000 - Part of Bromley AAP - Bromley Land At Nugent Industrial Park, Cray Avenue 11,318 FY2009 Not started - Bromley 25-33 The Mall, 67-71, High Street 8,218 FY2008 Not started - Bromley Multistorey Car Park, Earls Way 6,404 FY2010 Not started - Bromley The Glades Extension, High Street 3,790 01/04/2008 Under Construction - Camden Kings Cross Railway Lands, York Way 24,800 FY2009 Not started - Camden The Stables Market, Stanley Sidings, Chalk Farm Road 3,496 FY2007 Under construction - Camden 227-233, Tottenham Court Road 2,314 Unknown Under construction - Camden 21-31, New Oxford Street 2,000 Unknown Under construction - Camden Safeway Store, Chalk Farm Road 1,764 FY2007 Not started - Camden 121-126, High Holborn 1,748 Unknown Under construction - Camden 146-162, Kilburn High Road 1,564 FY2010 Not started - Camden The O2 Centre, Finchley Road 1,488 FY2007 Under construction - Camden 44-48, Birchington Road 1,283 Unknown Not started - Camden Land Adjacent To Stables Market (Site/Building D), Chalk Farm Road 965 FY2008 Not started - Camden 37-63, Fortune Green Road 858 Unknown Under construction -

251

Additional Comparison Year of Borough Site Name Status Planning Ref No. Floorspace Completion (m2)

Camden 64-70, Camden High Street 843 FY2008 Not started - City of London One New Change, 9-36 Cheapside, Bread Street, 85 Watling Street 12,793 01/09/2010 Under Construction - City of London 15-22, Cornhill 6,264 Unknown Under construction - City of London Walbrook Square, Bucklesbury House 4,900 Unknown Permission - City of London 22 - 24, Bishopsgate 3,187 FY2009 Not started - City of London Bow Bells House, 9, Bread Street 1,011 Unknown Under construction - City of London Regina House, 1-5, Queen Street 872 FY2009 Not started - City of London 39, Cornhill 800 FY2007 Not started - City of London Land Bounded By, Mark Lane 0 Unknown Under construction - City of London 2 Southampton Buildings, 311-318, High Holborn 0 Unknown Under construction - City of London Condor House, 10, St Paul's Churchyard 0 Unknown Under construction - Croydon Park Place, Park Street 36,707 01/07/2011 Permission 00/2350/P Croydon 500, Purley Way 10,730 FY2007 Not started - Croydon Bishop's Court At The Whitgift, George Street 8,390 01/09/2008 Permission 03/03064/P Croydon Purley Way, 226 Purley Way 1,520 Unknown Permission - Croydon Centrale Shopping Centre, North End 119 Unknown Permission 06/04744/P Ealing Arcadia Centre, The Broadway 16,360 Unknown Application P/2007/4246 Ealing Waitrose (No.2), And Adjoining Sites Of, Alexandria Road 3,956 Unknown Under construction - Ealing Daniel Department Store-96, Uxbridge Road 2,845 Unknown Under construction - Ealing Brentside Works And, 1-2, Brent Crescent 2,515 FY2007 Not started - Ealing Phase 2, Part Of South Acton Estate, Bollo Bridge Road 1,992 FY2009 Not started - Ealing 309, Ruislip Road East 1,122 Unknown Under construction - Ealing 7-11, New Broadway 853 FY2010 Not started -

252

Additional Comparison Year of Borough Site Name Status Planning Ref No. Floorspace Completion (m2)

Ealing The Former " Victory" Public House, King Street 831 Unknown Under construction - Ealing Waitrose (No.2), And Adjoining Sites Of, Alexandria Road 0 Unknown Under construction - Enfield Edmonton Grn Shopping Centre & Adjacent, The Broadway 17,472 Unknown Under construction - Enfield Edmonton Green Shopping Centre, Market Square 11,000 01/12/2008 Under Construction - Enfield 109-111, Cecil Road 2,566 Unknown Under construction - Enfield Ravenside Retail Park, Ravenside Close 1,999 Unknown Not Started - Enfield Land At & Adjoining Units 12-17, North Side, Market Square 1,370 FY2007 Not started - Enfield 198-232, Great Cambridge Road 1,200 FY2009 Not started - Greenwich Woolwich Town Regeneration Site, Hare Street 22,297 01/04/2011 Application 07/2335/O Greenwich Woolwich Town Centre, Love Lane 12,000 2010 Construction started 06/1750 Greenwich Greenwich Reach, Creek Road 3,000 01/01/2005 Construction started 05/1386 Greenwich Tripcock Point, Thamesmead 1,442 Unknown Not started - Greenwich Lidl, 135 - 143, Eltham High Street 801 FY2009 Construction started - Greenwich The Royal Arsenal/Warren, Warren Lane 495 Unknown Not started 05/2363/O Hackney Car Park, Rear Kingsland Shopping Centre, Kingsland High Street 3,040 FY2008 Not started - Hackney Eagle House Land Bounded By, 159-189, City Road 1,017 FY2009 Not started - Hackney Land South Of, Dalston Lane 880 FY2009 Not started - Hackney Dalston Junction Interchange, Site R/O 514 - 600, Kingsland Road 880 FY2009 Not started - Hammersmith and FulhamLand adjacent to Hammersmith Town Hall (1.33ha) 0 - Pre-application - Hammersmith and FulhamWestfield London, Wood Lane 121,046 14/11/2008 Opened 2008 2000/1642/P Hammersmith and Fulham207 King Street 3,444 - Application 2008/00485/FUL Hammersmith and Fulham51 Townmead Road (Sainsburys) 902 - Not started 2003/03090/FUL Hammersmith and FulhamJanet Adegoke Leisure Centre, 56 Bloemfontein Road 874 - Application 2007/04690/FUL

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Additional Comparison Year of Borough Site Name Status Planning Ref No. Floorspace Completion (m2)

Hammersmith and FulhamLand West Of West London Line, North And East Of, Shepherds Bush Place 800 Unknown Under construction - Haringey Tottenham Hale Retail Park, Broad Lane 15,863 Unknown Under construction - Haringey The Mall Shopping City Wood Green, High Street 8,000 Unknown Permission HGY/2007/0500 Haringey GLS 4,400 - Not Started HGY/2006/1177 Haringey Wards Corner 3,034 - Application HGY/2008/0303 Harrow Safeway Superstore, 299, Uxbridge Road 590 FY2008 Not started - Harrow Tescos, 177, Station Road 428 FY2009 Not started - Havering Land On The North Side Of The, Market Place 10,479 Unknown Under construction - Havering 22-24, Station Road 2,336 FY2001 Not started - Havering Tesco Store, Hornchurch Road 1,590 FY2009 Not started - Havering 10, Southend Arterial Road 1,200 FY2009 Not started - Havering 51-53, Station Road 1,140 FY2009 Not started - Havering 44-52, Market Place 1,138 FY2009 Not started - Havering 22-24, Station Road 1,120 FY2010 Not started - Havering Tesco's, 300, Hornchurch Road 1,094 Unknown Under construction - Havering Carpetright, Gallows Corner, Southend Arterial Road 912 FY2008 Not started - Hillingdon Sainsbury's Land At Lombardy Retail Park, Coldharbour Lane 9,056 FY2009 Not started - Hillingdon 664, Victoria Road 1,437 FY2008 Not started - Hillingdon Land At 92 - 104, High Street 1,023 FY2009 Not started - Hillingdon Former Hayes & Harlington Station Goods Yard 83-103, Station Road 843 Unknown Under construction - Hillingdon Sainsbury Store And Land Adjacent To, Long Drive 764 FY2009 Not started - Hillingdon Sainsbury Supermarket, York Road 605 FY2010 Not started - Hounslow Blenheim Centre, Key Site One (Phase 2), High Street 13,266 Unknown Application P/2007/3413

254

Additional Comparison Year of Borough Site Name Status Planning Ref No. Floorspace Completion (m2)

Hounslow Brentford Town Centre (Land south of the High Street), High Street 6,600 Unknown Pre-application - Hounslow Wallis House, Great West Road 1,115 FY2009 Under construction - Hounslow 193-199, High Street 1,070 Unknown Under construction - Hounslow Tesco, Dukes Green 928 - Permission - Hounslow Ivybridge Retail Park, Twickenham 654 30/11/2007 Permission P/2007/3223 Islington 183-205, Old Street 1,772 FY2010 Not started - Islington North Incl. Nos. 79, 101 & 103 & South Incl. Nos. 2-42, Queensland Road 1,528 FY2008 Not started - Islington Ashburton Grove, Ashburton Grove 1,504 Unknown Under construction - Islington 10-14, White Lion Street 1,460 FY2009 Not started - Islington 394-416, St John Street 1,164 Unknown Under construction - Islington King's Cross House, 200, Pentonville Road 1,094 Unknown Under construction - Islington 394-416, St John Street 0 Unknown Under construction - Kensington and Chelsea 37-53, Kensington High Street 2,760 Unknown Under construction - Kensington and Chelsea Lots Road Power Station And Chelsea Creek, Lots Road 958 FY2010 Not started - Kingston upon Thames Eden Walk Shopping Centre, Eden Walk 50,000 Unknown Pre-Application - Kingston upon Thames 31-35, Blagdon Road 0 FY1997 Pre-Application - Kingston upon Thames 25-29, Blagdon Road 0 FY2000 Pre-Application - Lambeth Shell Centre, 2-8, York Road 8,000 FY2009 Not started 01/02543/FUL Lambeth St George Wharf (Effra Site), Wandsworth Road 2,149 FY2010 Under construction 03/01501/FUL Lambeth Elizabeth House, 39, York Road 1,746 FY2009 Not started 04/02704/FUL Lambeth 214-238, Norwood Road 1,058 Unknown Under construction 03/03488/FUL Lambeth Land At St George Wharf, Wandsworth Road 814 Unknown Under construction 05/00781/FUL Lewisham Sydenham Gas Works, Phase 2, Bell Green 12,586 FY2008 Not started -

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Additional Comparison Year of Borough Site Name Status Planning Ref No. Floorspace Completion (m2)

Lewisham Lewisham Gateway 9,600 04/09/2009 Permission - Lewisham Thurston Road Industrial Estate, Jerrard Street 6,771 FY2009 Not started - Lewisham Tesco Store, Conington Road, Conington Road 6,000 - Pre app - Lewisham Convoys Wharf, Prince Street 5,126 - Application - Lewisham Tesco Store, Catford Shopping Centre, Rushey Green 3,330 - Pre app - Lewisham Bell Green Gasworks Site Phase 3, Southend Lane 1,247 FY2008 Not started DC/05/58884 Lewisham Loampit Vale (East and West Elmira Street), Loampit Vale 1,200 - Pre app - Lewisham Site Of Hither Green Hospital, Hither Green Lane 813 Unknown Under construction - Lewisham Former Bell Green Gasworks Site, Southend Lane 0 Unknown Permission DC/05/58884 Merton Shannon Corner Retail Park, Burlington Road 10,844 Unknown Permission 04/P1400 Merton Broadway House, 112 - 134, The Broadway & 2-14 Stanley Road, Wimbledon, 990 - Permission 05/P0709 Merton Plough Lane Retail Park, Plough Lane, Wimbeldon 921 - Permission 07/P0606 Newham Stratford City, Stratford Rail Lands 112,000 01/01/2011 Under construction P/03/0607 & P/O3/0659 Newham Stratford Town Centre 40,000 - Unknown - Newham Standard Industrial Estate, Factory Road 6,400 FY2007 Under construction - Newham Emerald Shopping Centre, Forest Gate 5,488 Lapsed consent Application 2001/0029 Full Newham Beckton Gas Works, Windsor Terrace 4,560 FY2009 Not started - Newham Gallion Reach Retail Park (Units 28-30), Armada Way 4,031 FY2008 Not started - Newham 232 - 236, Green Street 3,200 Unknown Under construction - Newham Land North Side Of Royal Albert Dock, Royal Albert Dock Spine Road 1,600 Unknown Under construction - Newham Land Bounded By, Shirley Street 880 Unknown Under construction - Redbridge Sainsburys Store, 33,, Roden Street 2,684 FY2008 Not started - Redbridge Peachey House, 39, Ilford Hill 1,826 FY2010 Under construction -

256

Additional Comparison Year of Borough Site Name Status Planning Ref No. Floorspace Completion (m2)

Redbridge Pioneer Market And 1-5, Winston Way 1,822 Unknown Under construction - Redbridge 253-269, High Road 1,000 FY2009 Under construction - Southwark Elephant & Castle, New Kent Road 48,030 Unknown Not started - Southwark London Bridge Station, Bounded By, 64-84, Tooley Street 12,800 FY2008 Not started - Southwark Cantium Retail Park, Old Kent Road 5,421 Unknown Permission - Southwark 1, Blackfriars Road 1,934 FY2009 Not started - Southwark 'Bankside 1,2,3', Southwark Street 1,426 Unknown Under construction - Southwark Surrey Quays Shopping Centre, Redriff Road 1,400 FY2009 Under Construction - Southwark Butterfly Walk Shopping Centre, Denmark Hill 1,299 Unknown Under construction - Southwark 44-47, Hopton Street 1,200 FY2008 Not started - Southwark 151-173, Tooley Street 801 FY2008 Under construction - Southwark Newington Industrial Estate, Crampton Street 800 FY2009 Under construction - Sutton Hackbridge 1,250 2011 Core Strategy Proposal - Sutton Victoria House, 338, London Road 832 FY2009 Not started A2005/55183 Tower Hamlets Heron Quays (Parcels Hq 2-5), West India Dock 5,600 Unknown Under construction - Tower Hamlets Trumans Brewery, 91, Brick Lane 2,800 FY2010 Not started - Tower Hamlets Reuters, Paul Julius Close 2,032 FY2010 Not started - Tower Hamlets Land At Shed 35 North Quay, Aspen Way 1,999 Unknown Not started - Tower Hamlets Hertsmere House, 2, Hertsmere Road 1,797 FY2009 Not started - Tower Hamlets The London Arena, 36, Limeharbour 1,282 Unknown Under construction - Tower Hamlets Rodwell House, 100-106, Middlesex Street 1,266 Unknown Under construction - Tower Hamlets Sainsbury Foodstore, 1, Cambridge Heath Road 1,257 FY2009 Not started - Tower Hamlets 22-28, Marsh Wall 1,060 Unknown Not started -

257

Additional Comparison Year of Borough Site Name Status Planning Ref No. Floorspace Completion (m2)

Tower Hamlets The Horner Site, Rear Of 51 To 63, Brushfield Street 1,016 Unknown Under construction - Tower Hamlets East Of Poplar Business Park And South West Of Junction, Prestons Road 867 Unknown Under construction - Tower Hamlets Indescon Court, 20, Millharbour 815 FY2007 Not started - Waltham Forest Arcade Site, High Street 6,835 01/03/2010 Pre-Application - Waltham Forest 1-23 The Arcade & Service Yard, 261-267, High Street 4,372 FY2008 Pre-Application - Waltham Forest Leyton Mills Retail Park, Marshall Road 654 Unknown Permission 2007/0608 Wandsworth The Power Station, Battersea Park Road 30,000 01/12/2010 Application - Wandsworth Southside, Wandsworth High Street 14,400 Unknown Application 2007/1346 Wandsworth Battersea Reach, York Road 9,600 Unknown Under construction - Wandsworth Garage & Land To The East Of & Including, 17-35, Battersea Bridge Road 2,350 FY2008 Not started - Wandsworth 72-78, Garratt Lane 1,206 FY2009 Not started - Wandsworth 951-959, Garratt Lane 916 FY2010 Not started - Westminster North of Victoria Station 16,756 - Application - Westminster 224-244, Regent Street 10,817 Unknown Under construction - Westminster 53- 63, New Bond Street 10,252 FY2010 Not started - Westminster Site At Park House, 116, Park Street 8,886 FY2009 Not started - Westminster Former Courts Unit, 300 Edgware Road 3,747 Unknown Permission C03021DF/06 Westminster 37-67, Baker Street 3,589 Unknown Under construction - Westminster 315, Oxford Street 1,982 Unknown Under construction - Westminster 83-97, Regent Street 1,948 Unknown Under construction - Westminster 219, Oxford Street 1,817 Unknown Under construction - Westminster 70, Brompton Road 1,817 Unknown Under construction - Westminster 19, Baker Street 1,690 FY2009 Not started -

258

Additional Comparison Year of Borough Site Name Status Planning Ref No. Floorspace Completion (m2)

Westminster Development Site At Abford House And, 333, Vauxhall Bridge Road 1,628 Unknown Under construction - Westminster 47 - 50, New Bond Street 1,487 Unknown Under construction - Westminster Bowater House, 68, Knightsbridge 1,158 Unknown Under construction - Westminster 23, North Wharf Road 1,104 Unknown Under construction - Westminster 178-202, Great Portland Street 1,011 Unknown Under construction - Westminster 9-12, Barrett Street 949 Unknown Under construction - Westminster 103, New Bond Street 855 FY2009 Not started - Westminster 48, Mortimer Street 827 Unknown Under construction - Westminster 7-13, Mercer Street 822 FY2009 Not started -

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APPENDIX 10 - RESULTS FROM STAGE 2B (FUTURE SCENARIOS)

Gross Total Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements

1.27 The projections of retail turnover for 5 year increments between 2006 and 2031 have been converted into actual need for additional retail space based on a range of key assumptions regarding:

• The sales density of new floorspace • The rate that sales densities increase (productivity growth)

1.28 We find that the need for new floorspace is very sensitive to assumptions made about retail space productivity growth (i.e. the sustainable rate of increase of sales densities of both existing and new space) and to assumptions about sales densities for new space.

1.29 The following series of tables indicate the gross total comparison goods floorspace requirements at a town centre level for 5 year increments between 2006 and 2031.

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Table 5: Gross total comparison goods floorspace requirements by town centre (2011 - 2031) using 1.5% productivity growth

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Barking & Dagenham Major Barking and Dagenham 2,062 4,447 8,687 13,820 20,841 Chadwell Heath District Barking and Dagenham 340 701 1,352 2,149 3,241 Dagenham & Heathway District Barking and Dagenham 771 1,757 3,653 5,991 9,138 Residual Residual Barking and Dagenham 1,477 3,242 6,501 10,522 16,017 Edgware Major Barnet 2,124 5,012 9,039 13,909 20,348 Brent Street District Barnet 268 687 1,192 1,760 2,509 Burnt Oak District Barnet 870 2,005 3,603 5,618 8,362 Chipping Barnet District Barnet 1,261 3,000 5,510 8,431 12,147 Church End, Finchley District Barnet 677 1,691 3,094 4,577 6,512 Colindale/The Hyde District Barnet 925 1,865 2,713 4,179 6,415 East Finchley District Barnet 282 734 1,403 1,987 2,788 Golders Green District Barnet 557 1,471 2,554 3,695 5,181 Hendon central District Barnet 891 2,218 3,880 5,852 8,458 Mill Hill District Barnet 618 1,480 2,683 4,144 6,066 New Barnet District Barnet 570 1,363 2,528 3,903 5,704 North Finchley District Barnet 1,090 2,734 5,082 7,559 10,825 Temple Fortune District Barnet 803 2,068 3,672 5,395 7,636 Whetstone District Barnet 488 1,174 2,220 3,382 4,917 Residual Residual Barnet 11,097 30,036 55,791 86,226 127,321 Bexleyheath Major Bexley 3,900 9,473 18,335 28,636 42,139 Crayford District Bexley 597 1,418 2,682 4,088 5,908

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Erith District Bexley 417 1,033 2,087 3,408 5,215 Sidcup District Bexley 655 1,592 3,189 4,968 7,351 Welling District Bexley 1,029 2,596 5,294 8,579 12,996 Residual Residual Bexley 371 921 1,856 2,899 4,299 Kilburn Major Brent 1,953 4,387 7,983 12,098 17,541 Wembley Major Brent 763 1,676 3,078 4,948 7,586 Cricklewood District Brent 1,873 4,512 8,182 12,286 17,622 Ealing Road District Brent 173 364 712 1,193 1,894 Harlesden District Brent 614 1,366 2,587 4,040 6,115 Kenton District Brent 236 556 1,134 1,824 2,808 Kingsbury District Brent 587 1,279 2,347 3,760 5,786 Neasden District Brent 128 248 601 1,255 2,186 Preston Road District Brent 167 348 653 1,054 1,648 Wembley Park District Brent 373 826 1,597 2,554 3,937 Willesden Green District Brent 369 876 1,636 2,407 3,418 Residual Residual Brent 3,938 9,156 17,277 27,041 40,172 Bromley Metropolitan Bromley 8,322 19,535 38,044 9,297 37,518 Orpington Major Bromley 1,715 4,121 8,202 13,357 20,247 Beckenham District Bromley 502 1,162 2,477 3,873 5,826 Crystal Palace District Bromley 190 433 946 1,509 2,303 Penge District Bromley 445 1,023 2,196 3,459 5,201 Petts Wood District Bromley 293 720 1,587 2,657 4,125 West Wickham District Bromley 511 1,233 2,657 4,458 6,951 Residual Residual Bromley 2,243 5,350 10,595 17,117 25,923 Camden Town Major Camden 3,157 6,983 12,393 18,692 27,118

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Hampstead District Camden 654 1,701 3,164 4,641 6,561 Kentish Town District Camden 523 1,272 2,557 4,003 6,002 Swiss Cottage/Finchley Road District Camden 947 2,432 4,492 6,646 9,391 West Hampstead District Camden 246 654 1,186 1,668 2,254 Residual Residual Camden 2,541 5,633 10,143 15,238 21,912 Cheapside CAZ Frontage City of London 1,078 2,391 4,387 6,580 9,518 Fleet Street CAZ Frontage City of London 535 1,218 2,278 3,421 4,930 Leadenhall Market CAZ Frontage City of London 1,304 2,809 4,963 7,327 10,485 Liverpool Street CAZ Frontage City of London 2,625 5,777 10,687 16,174 23,619 Moorgate CAZ Frontage City of London 2,966 6,562 12,245 18,580 27,135 Residual Residual City of London 7,123 15,914 29,723 44,910 65,137 Croydon Metropolitan Croydon 13,702 30,195 58,434 44,304 87,993 Addiscombe District Croydon 236 497 994 1,543 2,299 Coulsdon District Croydon 454 1,049 1,969 3,051 4,402 Norbury District Croydon 593 1,250 2,526 4,216 6,649 Purley District Croydon 327 747 1,421 2,223 3,234 South Norwood District Croydon 205 429 898 1,413 2,130 Thornton Heath District Croydon 570 1,134 2,239 3,620 5,565 Upper Norwood District Croydon 231 514 1,108 1,763 2,699 Residual Residual Croydon 8,456 18,939 36,847 48,324 77,015 Ealing Metropolitan Ealing 3,091 7,083 13,525 20,462 29,991 Southall Major Ealing 1,626 3,940 7,453 12,352 19,452 Acton District Ealing 596 1,284 2,423 3,566 5,098 Greenford District Ealing 371 886 1,791 3,113 5,011 Hanwell District Ealing 121 285 568 988 1,619

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Residual Residual Ealing 2,192 4,981 9,922 16,227 25,194 Enfield Town Major Enfield 2,450 5,760 11,068 17,592 26,197 Angel Edmonton District Enfield 231 531 1,108 1,833 2,843 Edmonton Green District Enfield 310 705 1,481 2,448 3,806 Palmers Green District Enfield 515 1,207 2,502 3,938 5,871 Southgate District Enfield 476 1,137 2,259 3,410 4,913 Residual Residual Enfield 4,345 9,982 19,294 30,895 46,719 Eltham Major Greenwich 2,026 4,880 9,606 15,310 23,138 Woolwich Major Greenwich 2,777 6,370 11,879 19,071 29,046 Greenwich West District Greenwich 772 1,770 3,223 4,572 6,357 Plumstead District Greenwich 119 276 549 998 1,650 Thamesmead District Greenwich 457 1,060 2,015 3,585 5,905 Residual Residual Greenwich 4,167 9,574 17,765 26,900 39,237 Dalston Major Hackney 1,898 4,086 7,829 12,200 18,283 Finsbury Park District Hackney 579 1,256 2,594 4,121 6,261 Mare Street District Hackney 982 2,123 3,977 6,113 9,123 Stoke Newington District Hackney 558 1,204 2,469 4,059 6,318 Residual Residual Hackney 1,432 3,110 6,015 9,338 13,817 Fulham Major Hammersmith and Fulham 763 1,639 2,833 4,130 5,835 Hammersmith Major Hammersmith and Fulham 2,207 5,011 9,456 14,000 20,030 Shepherds Bush District Hammersmith and Fulham 1,092 2,490 4,827 7,349 10,737 Residual Residual Hammersmith and Fulham 1,423 3,322 6,614 9,674 13,623 Wood Green Metropolitan Haringey 5,675 4,820 25,555 31,814 50,931 Crouch End District Haringey 653 1,462 3,022 4,495 6,528 Green Lanes District Haringey 351 729 1,412 2,247 3,390

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Muswell Hill District Haringey 657 1,621 3,212 4,585 6,454 Tottenham District Haringey 412 890 1,820 3,105 4,933 West Green Road District Haringey 263 552 1,158 1,903 2,907 Residual Residual Haringey 1,862 4,062 8,196 13,507 21,008 Harrow Metropolitan Harrow 4,875 11,271 22,264 34,730 51,500 North Harrow District Harrow 97 249 517 809 1,208 Pinner District Harrow 237 600 1,209 1,874 2,756 Rayners Lane District Harrow 204 533 1,108 1,801 2,751 South Harrow District Harrow 351 899 1,934 3,315 5,253 Stanmore District Harrow 222 523 999 1,536 2,240 Wealdstone District Harrow 500 1,226 2,409 3,648 5,260 Residual Residual Harrow 464 1,170 2,359 3,629 5,291 Romford Metropolitan Havering 9,327 20,841 27,514 48,079 74,757 Collier Row District Havering 358 784 1,516 2,368 3,512 Elm Park District Havering 51 126 296 500 776 Harold Hill District Havering 215 504 974 1,510 2,217 Hornchurch District Havering 807 1,889 3,782 5,861 8,579 Rainham District Havering 254 604 1,155 1,845 2,764 Upminster District Havering 1,031 2,439 4,683 7,155 10,344 Residual Residual Havering 3,061 7,001 13,328 20,362 29,485 Uxbridge Metropolitan Hillingdon 5,187 12,562 24,553 38,140 56,135 Eastcote District Hillingdon 256 692 1,483 2,443 3,738 Hayes District Hillingdon 860 2,120 4,100 6,597 10,037 Ickenham District Hillingdon 158 439 893 1,400 2,089 Northwood District Hillingdon 215 523 1,008 1,541 2,221

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Ruislip District Hillingdon 599 1,605 3,285 5,240 7,870 Yiewsley/West Drayton District Hillingdon 458 1,134 2,208 3,371 4,926 Residual Residual Hillingdon 4,091 10,364 20,145 32,017 48,120 Hounslow Metropolitan Hounslow 5,878 13,356 24,775 24,878 44,675 Chiswick Major Hounslow 1,831 4,153 7,845 11,597 16,592 Brentford District Hounslow 372 798 1,510 2,339 3,486 Feltham High Street District Hounslow 995 2,248 4,121 6,695 10,170 Residual Residual Hounslow 1,007 2,098 3,914 6,392 9,933 Angel Major Islington 3,039 6,639 12,740 19,447 28,344 Nags Head Major Islington 2,246 5,053 9,910 15,464 23,166 Archway District Islington 493 1,180 2,348 3,500 5,144 Residual Residual Islington 976 2,079 4,206 6,578 9,864 Kensington High Street Major Kensington and Chelsea 4,065 12,023 22,999 34,445 49,015 Kings Road East Major Kensington and Chelsea 12,903 27,038 45,084 65,742 93,111 Earls Court Road District Kensington and Chelsea 420 961 1,883 2,666 3,653 Fulham Road (east) District Kensington and Chelsea 1,873 4,084 7,215 10,552 14,913 Fulham Road (west) District Kensington and Chelsea 1,577 3,400 6,072 8,815 12,388 Kings Road (west) District Kensington and Chelsea 2,184 4,616 7,714 11,220 15,875 Notting Hill Gate District Kensington and Chelsea 1,561 3,255 5,437 7,959 11,229 Portobello Road District Kensington and Chelsea 2,585 5,639 10,136 15,333 22,168 South Kensington District Kensington and Chelsea 455 1,079 2,084 3,028 4,247 Residual Residual Kensington and Chelsea 2,949 6,578 12,123 18,126 26,045 Kingston Metropolitan Kingston upon Thames 14,232 34,343 64,189 47,503 90,768 New Malden District Kingston upon Thames 652 1,615 3,078 4,844 7,168 Surbiton District Kingston upon Thames 482 1,164 2,159 3,293 4,801

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Tolworth District Kingston upon Thames 508 1,235 2,311 3,619 5,374 Residual Residual Kingston upon Thames 963 2,386 4,515 7,038 10,394 Brixton Major Lambeth 1,945 4,454 8,653 13,535 20,331 Streatham Major Lambeth 1,349 2,992 5,843 9,160 13,716 Clapham High Street District Lambeth 654 1,554 3,107 4,797 7,072 Stockwell District Lambeth 228 554 1,131 1,757 2,621 Tulse Hill District Lambeth 84 208 450 689 1,047 West Norwood District Lambeth 130 321 675 1,029 1,545 Lower Marsh CAZ Frontage Lambeth 1,276 2,869 5,273 7,802 11,107 Residual Residual Lambeth 695 1,687 3,566 5,734 8,800 Catford Major Lewisham 673 1,528 3,049 4,835 7,349 Lewisham Major Lewisham 4,190 9,591 18,570 4,415 17,240 Blackheath District Lewisham 33 103 213 340 526 Deptford District Lewisham 648 1,499 2,781 3,831 5,173 Downham District Lewisham 78 182 388 754 1,346 Forest Hill District Lewisham 238 549 1,150 1,806 2,724 Lee Green District Lewisham 157 385 794 1,280 1,982 New Cross District Lewisham 777 1,798 3,404 4,831 6,691 Sydenham District Lewisham 346 810 1,749 2,884 4,499 Residual Residual Lewisham 1,117 2,582 5,153 8,285 12,768 Wimbledon Major Merton 3,300 7,988 15,734 24,224 35,521 Mitcham District Merton 326 751 1,566 2,596 4,032 Morden District Merton 342 822 1,696 2,785 4,290 Residual Residual Merton 1,686 4,066 8,237 12,938 19,253 East Ham Major Newham 2,060 4,473 8,684 13,795 20,938

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Stratford Major Newham 16,598 36,518 64,147 -17,474 24,357 Canning Town District Newham 959 1,912 3,273 4,762 6,847 East Beckton District Newham 816 1,696 3,246 5,294 8,157 Forest Gate District Newham 836 1,844 3,472 5,273 7,803 Upton Park District Newham 1,808 3,727 7,222 11,367 17,361 Residual Residual Newham 4,083 8,943 17,264 27,488 41,564 Ilford Metropolitan Redbridge 9,956 16,342 35,481 58,036 88,657 Barkingside District Redbridge 762 1,663 3,096 4,865 7,265 Gants Hill District Redbridge 504 1,091 2,043 3,184 4,741 South Woodford District Redbridge 706 1,561 2,920 4,354 6,371 Wanstead District Redbridge 340 768 1,393 2,008 2,850 Residual Residual Redbridge 2,367 5,062 9,592 15,028 22,450 Richmond Major Richmond upon Thames 3,184 7,351 13,785 20,962 30,437 East Sheen District Richmond upon Thames 762 1,730 3,363 5,138 7,495 Teddington District Richmond upon Thames 652 1,528 2,904 4,515 6,686 Twickenham District Richmond upon Thames 1,126 2,482 4,439 6,702 9,733 Whitton District Richmond Upon Thames 209 465 880 1,525 2,457 Residual Residual Richmond Upon Thames 2,194 5,007 9,481 14,938 22,359 Peckham Major Southwark 2,575 5,933 11,244 16,585 23,792 Camberwell District Southwark 593 1,398 2,745 4,188 6,210 Dulwich - Lordship Lane District Southwark 396 951 1,898 2,629 3,581 Elephant and Castle District Southwark 5,184 11,909 22,719 -13,305 3,110 Surrey Quays District Southwark 2,809 6,244 10,958 15,431 21,247 Walworth Road District Southwark 2,139 5,009 9,631 14,778 21,999 Borough High Street CAZ Frontage Southwark 2,458 5,369 9,552 14,011 20,003

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Residual Residual Southwark 3,120 7,169 13,413 20,014 28,945 Sutton Metropolitan Sutton 6,918 16,395 32,124 49,320 71,990 Cheam District Sutton 282 677 1,315 1,970 2,812 North Cheam District Sutton 403 981 1,925 3,074 4,619 Rosehill District Sutton 126 297 614 1,010 1,562 Wallington District Sutton 364 862 1,718 2,713 4,015 Worcester Park District Sutton 439 1,091 2,127 3,409 5,127 Residual Residual Sutton 322 740 1,500 2,409 3,637 Canary Wharf Major Tower Hamlets 5,420 11,404 19,992 13,514 25,603 Bethnal Green District Tower Hamlets 978 2,060 3,618 5,413 7,919 Chrisp Street District Tower Hamlets 978 2,034 3,448 5,011 7,162 Crossharbour District Tower Hamlets 0 0 0 0 0 Poplar District Tower Hamlets 874 1,814 3,122 4,498 6,387 Roman Road (east) District Tower Hamlets 1,094 2,293 3,905 5,726 8,334 Watney Market District Tower Hamlets 1,728 3,696 6,628 9,917 14,403 Whitechapel District Tower Hamlets 782 1,661 2,907 4,290 6,151 Residual Residual Tower Hamlets 4,062 8,581 15,229 23,013 33,781 Walthamstow Major Waltham Forest 3,284 7,172 13,770 21,690 32,927 Bakers Arms District Waltham Forest 653 1,400 2,666 4,066 6,088 Leyton - High Road Leyton District Waltham Forest 289 621 1,117 1,626 2,371 Leytonstone District Waltham Forest 1,202 2,682 4,829 7,143 10,325 North Chingford District Waltham Forest 606 1,394 2,613 4,090 6,131 South Chingford District Waltham Forest 487 1,095 2,132 3,476 5,416 Wood Street District Waltham Forest 244 525 1,003 1,528 2,301 Residual Residual Waltham Forest 715 1,506 2,702 4,013 5,866

269

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Clapham Junction Major Wandsworth 2,699 6,332 12,221 18,745 27,572 Putney Major Wandsworth 2,209 5,171 9,923 15,037 21,799 Tooting Major Wandsworth 2,257 5,350 10,643 16,609 24,553 Wandsworth Major Wandsworth 1,748 4,106 7,865 11,917 17,274 Balham District Wandsworth 470 1,120 2,270 3,419 4,893 Residual Residual Wandsworth 3,952 9,222 17,872 27,544 40,874 Knightsbridge International Westminster 13,951 35,101 64,107 97,548 141,123 West End International Westminster 62,116 135,291 306,711 504,894 762,815 Queensway/Westbourne Grove Major Westminster 2,332 5,255 9,738 14,664 21,129 Edgware Road/Church Street District Westminster 878 2,008 3,709 5,605 8,042 Harrow Road District Westminster 275 625 1,283 2,103 3,249 Praed Street/Paddington District Westminster 1,038 2,375 4,408 6,636 9,487 St John's Wood District Westminster 323 837 1,592 2,431 3,523 Edgware Road South CAZ Frontage Westminster 244 539 802 1,223 1,839 Marylebone High Street CAZ Frontage Westminster 1,669 3,863 7,467 11,371 16,449 Victoria Street CAZ Frontage Westminster 3,115 7,373 14,243 21,761 31,906 Warwick Way/Tachbrook St CAZ Frontage Westminster 702 1,682 3,274 5,145 7,753 Residual Residual Westminster 1,457 3,511 7,047 11,523 17,818

270

Table 6: Gross total comparison goods floorspace requirements by town centre (2011 - 2031) using 2.2% productivity growth

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Barking & Dagenham Major Barking and Dagenham 1,302 2,793 5,833 9,420 14,323 Chadwell Heath District Barking and Dagenham 192 386 824 1,354 2,091 Dagenham & Heathway District Barking and Dagenham 395 951 2,278 3,888 6,057 Residual Residual Barking and Dagenham 835 1,863 4,149 6,922 10,724 Edgware Major Barnet 1,305 3,208 5,985 9,279 13,640 Brent Street District Barnet 167 462 810 1,186 1,686 Burnt Oak District Barnet 535 1,271 2,363 3,734 5,613 Chipping Barnet District Barnet 763 1,905 3,649 5,616 8,100 Church End, Finchley District Barnet 386 1,052 2,014 2,970 4,231 Colindale/The Hyde District Barnet 744 1,446 2,013 3,072 4,701 East Finchley District Barnet 130 406 854 1,192 1,684 Golders Green District Barnet 344 992 1,741 2,483 3,456 Hendon central District Barnet 557 1,474 2,620 3,946 5,704 Mill Hill District Barnet 378 950 1,784 2,778 4,083 New Barnet District Barnet 324 827 1,624 2,540 3,744 North Finchley District Barnet 593 1,647 3,249 4,837 6,964 Temple Fortune District Barnet 478 1,345 2,449 3,570 5,039 Whetstone District Barnet 268 696 1,413 2,175 3,191 Residual Residual Barnet 5,726 18,218 35,834 56,152 83,866 Bexleyheath Major Bexley 2,119 5,600 11,755 18,687 27,777 Crayford District Bexley 357 892 1,782 2,728 3,948

271

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Erith District Bexley 203 571 1,302 2,209 3,456 Sidcup District Bexley 312 857 1,949 3,113 4,695 Welling District Bexley 450 1,354 3,198 5,409 8,402 Residual Residual Bexley 179 506 1,152 1,842 2,778 Kilburn Major Brent 1,204 2,752 5,219 7,947 11,578 Wembley Major Brent 457 1,014 1,964 3,248 5,080 Cricklewood District Brent 1,111 2,838 5,354 8,051 11,574 Ealing Road District Brent 90 188 417 746 1,233 Harlesden District Brent 341 779 1,601 2,561 3,969 Kenton District Brent 91 250 626 1,069 1,725 Kingsbury District Brent 336 738 1,445 2,396 3,789 Neasden District Brent 37 61 290 763 1,435 Preston Road District Brent 92 190 390 657 1,066 Wembley Park District Brent 188 434 942 1,573 2,513 Willesden Green District Brent 205 521 1,038 1,523 2,173 Residual Residual Brent 2,201 5,394 10,935 17,471 26,335 Bromley Metropolitan Bromley 4,385 11,049 23,717 37,790 6,615 Orpington Major Bromley 816 2,194 4,960 8,445 13,121 Beckenham District Bromley 186 497 1,368 2,239 3,510 Crystal Palace District Bromley 66 172 511 867 1,388 Penge District Bromley 163 431 1,208 2,002 3,134 Petts Wood District Bromley 80 274 845 1,546 2,528 West Wickham District Bromley 155 485 1,415 2,598 4,271 Residual Residual Bromley 1,107 2,909 6,480 10,884 16,873 Camden Town Major Camden 2,137 4,724 8,531 12,819 18,568

272

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Hampstead District Camden 346 1,027 2,026 2,959 4,190 Kentish Town District Camden 254 693 1,578 2,534 3,882 Swiss Cottage/Finchley Road District Camden 516 1,487 2,897 4,278 6,047 West Hampstead District Camden 136 410 774 1,065 1,421 Residual Residual Camden 1,726 3,824 7,033 10,507 15,042 Cheapside CAZ Frontage City of London 737 1,634 3,076 4,580 6,595 Fleet Street CAZ Frontage City of London 355 819 1,585 2,366 3,395 Leadenhall Market CAZ Frontage City of London 960 2,034 3,608 5,248 7,429 Liverpool Street CAZ Frontage City of London 1,755 3,856 7,373 11,124 16,237 Moorgate CAZ Frontage City of London 1,939 4,304 8,358 12,671 18,520 Residual Residual City of London 4,690 10,547 20,452 30,807 44,611 Croydon Metropolitan Croydon 7,141 16,198 35,026 56,162 38,222 Addiscombe District Croydon 110 232 554 896 1,385 Coulsdon District Croydon 262 632 1,264 1,987 2,881 Norbury District Croydon 277 584 1,419 2,549 4,215 Purley District Croydon 181 432 891 1,425 2,093 South Norwood District Croydon 85 179 483 802 1,266 Thornton Heath District Croydon 291 548 1,266 2,167 3,472 Upper Norwood District Croydon 87 212 605 1,019 1,636 Residual Residual Croydon 4,330 10,128 22,100 26,238 45,336 Ealing Metropolitan Ealing 1,650 3,984 8,323 12,752 19,008 Southall Major Ealing 863 2,286 4,669 8,073 13,071 Acton District Ealing 341 738 1,507 2,218 3,199 Greenford District Ealing 161 438 1,041 1,960 3,295 Hanwell District Ealing 60 154 348 645 1,098

273

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Residual Residual Ealing 1,053 2,554 5,859 10,091 16,233 Enfield Town Major Enfield 1,323 3,326 6,958 11,366 17,185 Angel Edmonton District Enfield 94 242 625 1,106 1,791 Edmonton Green District Enfield 127 319 836 1,478 2,400 Palmers Green District Enfield 211 562 1,424 2,341 3,603 Southgate District Enfield 223 597 1,353 2,074 3,034 Residual Residual Enfield 2,316 5,622 11,951 19,778 30,555 Eltham Major Greenwich 1,039 2,749 6,001 9,851 15,191 Woolwich Major Greenwich 1,657 3,929 7,739 12,720 19,663 Greenwich West District Greenwich 519 1,206 2,250 3,122 4,294 Plumstead District Greenwich 50 131 308 624 1,087 Thamesmead District Greenwich 228 571 1,199 2,314 3,977 Residual Residual Greenwich 2,651 6,233 12,036 18,216 26,614 Dalston Major Hackney 1,137 2,445 5,042 7,985 12,142 Finsbury Park District Hackney 295 653 1,572 2,586 4,036 Mare Street District Hackney 605 1,307 2,591 4,023 6,078 Stoke Newington District Hackney 288 629 1,497 2,580 4,144 Residual Residual Hackney 883 1,918 3,973 6,234 9,294 Fulham Major Hammersmith and Fulham 540 1,143 1,985 2,850 3,994 Hammersmith Major Hammersmith and Fulham 1,242 2,928 5,949 8,819 12,708 Shepherds Bush District Hammersmith and Fulham 579 1,388 2,973 4,595 6,817 Residual Residual Hammersmith and Fulham 707 1,787 4,026 5,891 8,350 Wood Green Metropolitan Haringey 2,888 -1,135 15,526 16,834 29,499 Crouch End District Haringey 298 710 1,760 2,651 3,940 Green Lanes District Haringey 200 408 871 1,431 2,206

274

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Muswell Hill District Haringey 294 844 1,909 2,701 3,843 Tottenham District Haringey 204 449 1,079 1,968 3,246 West Green Road District Haringey 130 271 684 1,186 1,866 Residual Residual Haringey 948 2,115 4,920 8,531 13,707 Harrow Metropolitan Harrow 2,366 5,884 13,243 21,302 32,345 North Harrow District Harrow 30 107 281 462 719 Pinner District Harrow 93 292 696 1,116 1,685 Rayners Lane District Harrow 63 233 609 1,058 1,688 South Harrow District Harrow 91 352 1,027 1,948 3,268 Stanmore District Harrow 116 294 614 963 1,425 Wealdstone District Harrow 225 637 1,424 2,198 3,223 Residual Residual Harrow 183 572 1,360 2,156 3,218 Romford Metropolitan Havering 5,508 12,567 13,520 27,091 44,745 Collier Row District Havering 198 441 937 1,500 2,264 Elm Park District Havering 8 38 149 282 464 Harold Hill District Havering 114 285 605 958 1,427 Hornchurch District Havering 384 986 2,265 3,604 5,376 Rainham District Havering 143 363 746 1,219 1,849 Upminster District Havering 561 1,423 2,964 4,583 6,680 Residual Residual Havering 1,725 4,110 8,446 13,056 19,066 Uxbridge Metropolitan Hillingdon 2,485 6,718 14,760 23,556 35,367 Eastcote District Hillingdon 63 284 803 1,428 2,287 Hayes District Hillingdon 418 1,167 2,501 4,179 6,522 Ickenham District Hillingdon 49 206 505 826 1,275 Northwood District Hillingdon 107 291 619 962 1,402

275

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Ruislip District Hillingdon 200 754 1,865 3,127 4,857 Yiewsley/West Drayton District Hillingdon 212 606 1,323 2,062 3,072 Residual Residual Hillingdon 1,882 5,604 12,166 20,030 30,845 Hounslow Metropolitan Hounslow 3,362 7,912 15,628 11,032 24,528 Chiswick Major Hounslow 1,016 2,397 4,893 7,246 10,455 Brentford District Hounslow 212 454 933 1,476 2,243 Feltham High Street District Hounslow 584 1,356 2,622 4,399 6,799 Residual Residual Hounslow 597 1,219 2,441 4,138 6,605 Angel Major Islington 1,879 4,117 8,424 12,927 18,925 Nags Head Major Islington 1,233 2,874 6,221 9,915 15,129 Archway District Islington 237 631 1,422 2,139 3,211 Residual Residual Islington 523 1,114 2,575 4,136 6,342 Kensington High Street Major Kensington and Chelsea 1,998 7,430 15,149 22,684 32,257 Kings Road East Major Kensington and Chelsea 9,763 19,926 32,826 47,019 65,775 Earls Court Road District Kensington and Chelsea 219 529 1,156 1,611 2,201 Fulham Road (east) District Kensington and Chelsea 1,270 2,751 4,944 7,145 10,037 Fulham Road (west) District Kensington and Chelsea 1,047 2,237 4,095 5,870 8,204 Kings Road (west) District Kensington and Chelsea 1,641 3,387 5,598 7,996 11,176 Notting Hill Gate District Kensington and Chelsea 1,179 2,391 3,949 5,684 7,917 Portobello Road District Kensington and Chelsea 1,702 3,701 6,837 10,339 14,951 South Kensington District Kensington and Chelsea 241 617 1,304 1,885 2,649 Residual Residual Kensington and Chelsea 1,847 4,166 8,022 11,977 17,237 Kingston Metropolitan Kingston upon Thames 8,025 20,804 41,298 63,213 41,788 New Malden District Kingston upon Thames 341 939 1,937 3,121 4,684 Surbiton District Kingston upon Thames 280 722 1,411 2,166 3,178

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Tolworth District Kingston upon Thames 286 750 1,491 2,375 3,568 Residual Residual Kingston upon Thames 517 1,415 2,875 4,563 6,822 Brixton Major Lambeth 1,112 2,651 5,582 8,882 13,539 Streatham Major Lambeth 713 1,633 3,559 5,740 8,793 Clapham High Street District Lambeth 329 855 1,924 3,030 4,541 Stockwell District Lambeth 107 295 693 1,102 1,679 Tulse Hill District Lambeth 30 92 255 402 638 West Norwood District Lambeth 54 159 401 624 966 Lower Marsh CAZ Frontage Lambeth 871 1,967 3,706 5,423 7,661 Residual Residual Lambeth 326 898 2,217 3,685 5,798 Catford Major Lewisham 344 825 1,863 3,051 4,759 Lewisham Major Lewisham 2,366 5,647 11,874 17,997 2,937 Blackheath District Lewisham 16 64 145 234 366 Deptford District Lewisham 420 994 1,910 2,555 3,392 Downham District Lewisham 32 84 223 490 928 Forest Hill District Lewisham 105 268 676 1,101 1,712 Lee Green District Lewisham 72 204 487 815 1,299 New Cross District Lewisham 485 1,156 2,299 3,199 4,392 Sydenham District Lewisham 127 349 977 1,725 2,820 Residual Residual Lewisham 596 1,459 3,246 5,382 8,491 Wimbledon Major Merton 1,574 4,283 9,510 14,974 22,367 Mitcham District Merton 130 338 877 1,561 2,533 Morden District Merton 136 387 968 1,690 2,706 Residual Residual Merton 724 2,014 4,803 7,833 11,980 East Ham Major Newham 1,290 2,799 5,803 9,361 14,361

277

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Stratford Major Newham 11,493 25,158 44,687 65,111 93,594 Canning Town District Newham 773 1,485 2,510 3,569 5,052 East Beckton District Newham 574 1,161 2,304 3,797 5,865 Forest Gate District Newham 522 1,160 2,303 3,509 5,236 Upton Park District Newham 1,147 2,299 4,774 7,626 11,816 Residual Residual Newham 2,643 5,789 11,799 19,009 28,919 Ilford Metropolitan Redbridge 6,106 8,006 21,313 36,564 57,429 Barkingside District Redbridge 453 995 1,971 3,163 4,794 Gants Hill District Redbridge 295 640 1,285 2,043 3,092 South Woodford District Redbridge 408 918 1,838 2,751 4,083 Wanstead District Redbridge 204 474 898 1,280 1,822 Residual Residual Redbridge 1,386 2,958 6,045 9,677 14,701 Richmond Major Richmond upon Thames 1,792 4,337 8,709 13,386 19,628 East Sheen District Richmond upon Thames 391 937 2,034 3,168 4,701 Teddington District Richmond upon Thames 355 885 1,821 2,889 4,344 Twickenham District Richmond upon Thames 729 1,612 2,964 4,477 6,519 Whitton District Richmond Upon Thames 114 262 540 996 1,660 Residual Residual Richmond Upon Thames 1,207 2,878 5,904 9,546 14,561 Peckham Major Southwark 1,654 3,900 7,726 11,287 16,142 Camberwell District Southwark 356 878 1,847 2,825 4,215 Dulwich - Lordship Lane District Southwark 228 584 1,264 1,705 2,294 Elephant and Castle District Southwark 3,245 7,650 15,379 23,560 34,824 Surrey Quays District Southwark 2,088 4,598 8,070 11,069 14,967 Walworth Road District Southwark 1,345 3,259 6,596 10,138 15,155 Borough High Street CAZ Frontage Southwark 1,771 3,825 6,865 9,915 14,022

278

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Residual Residual Southwark 2,082 4,861 9,399 13,902 20,021 Sutton Metropolitan Sutton 3,468 8,981 19,649 30,756 45,591 Cheam District Sutton 146 385 821 1,239 1,780 North Cheam District Sutton 198 539 1,180 1,950 2,993 Rosehill District Sutton 52 139 350 612 986 Wallington District Sutton 172 451 1,027 1,679 2,540 Worcester Park District Sutton 213 602 1,305 2,167 3,329 Residual Residual Sutton 142 359 865 1,459 2,275 Canary Wharf Major Tower Hamlets 4,011 8,236 14,477 20,584 13,391 Chrisp Street District Tower Hamlets 746 1,510 2,536 3,614 5,105 Bethnal Green District Tower Hamlets 696 1,432 2,540 3,769 5,503 Crossharbour District Tower Hamlets 0 0 0 0 0 Poplar District Tower Hamlets 683 1,375 2,346 3,304 4,621 Roman Road (east) District Tower Hamlets 803 1,641 2,786 4,026 5,831 Watney Market District Tower Hamlets 1,241 2,607 4,735 7,013 10,125 Whitechapel District Tower Hamlets 582 1,210 2,119 3,080 4,369 Residual Residual Tower Hamlets 2,955 6,104 10,926 16,370 23,914 Walthamstow Major Waltham Forest 1,819 4,033 8,495 13,756 21,401 Bakers Arms District Waltham Forest 362 778 1,625 2,522 3,871 Leyton - High Road Leyton District Waltham Forest 173 371 701 1,015 1,501 Leytonstone District Waltham Forest 750 1,694 3,162 4,660 6,770 North Chingford District Waltham Forest 351 840 1,677 2,673 4,067 South Chingford District Waltham Forest 248 584 1,277 2,183 3,520 Wood Street District Waltham Forest 130 283 600 931 1,445 Residual Residual Waltham Forest 477 986 1,819 2,686 3,943

279

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Clapham Junction Major Wandsworth 1,447 3,628 7,656 11,922 17,792 Putney Major Wandsworth 1,186 2,961 6,198 9,497 13,921 Tooting Major Wandsworth 1,066 2,803 6,368 10,237 15,467 Wandsworth Major Wandsworth 947 2,375 4,942 7,565 11,078 Balham District Wandsworth 212 570 1,346 2,060 2,989 Residual Residual Wandsworth 2,099 5,229 11,139 17,474 26,390 Knightsbridge International Westminster 8,362 22,708 42,988 65,564 94,927 West End International Westminster 31,021 65,521 187,022 322,521 497,915 Queensway/Westbourne Grove Major Westminster 1,419 3,265 6,364 9,609 13,894 Edgware Road/Church Street District Westminster 535 1,258 2,436 3,693 5,307 Harrow Road District Westminster 128 312 757 1,309 2,091 Praed Street/Paddington District Westminster 635 1,494 2,909 4,385 6,270 St John's Wood District Westminster 165 491 1,007 1,557 2,276 Edgware Road South CAZ Frontage Westminster 194 421 602 907 1,353 Marylebone High Street CAZ Frontage Westminster 937 2,277 4,776 7,341 10,694 Victoria Street CAZ Frontage Westminster 1,748 4,402 9,188 14,168 20,970 Warwick Way/Tachbrook St CAZ Frontage Westminster 401 1,024 2,149 3,430 5,232 Residual Residual Westminster 725 1,937 4,381 7,449 11,816

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Table 7: Gross total comparison goods floorspace requirements by town centre (2011 - 2031) using 2.8% productivity growth Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Barking & Dagenham Major Barking and Dagenham 674 1,472 3,624 6,120 9,590 Chadwell Heath District Barking and Dagenham 69 134 415 758 1,257 Dagenham & Heathway District Barking and Dagenham 84 306 1,214 2,312 3,819 Residual Residual Barking and Dagenham 306 763 2,328 4,222 6,880 Edgware Major Barnet 628 1,767 3,620 5,807 8,768 Brent Street District Barnet 84 282 515 756 1,088 Burnt Oak District Barnet 259 684 1,404 2,321 3,617 Chipping Barnet District Barnet 352 1,030 2,209 3,505 5,161 Church End, Finchley District Barnet 146 541 1,178 1,766 2,575 Colindale/The Hyde District Barnet 594 1,111 1,470 2,242 3,457 East Finchley District Barnet 5 144 429 596 882 Golders Green District Barnet 169 609 1,112 1,574 2,203 Hendon central District Barnet 282 879 1,644 2,517 3,704 Mill Hill District Barnet 180 527 1,088 1,754 2,643 New Barnet District Barnet 121 398 923 1,519 2,322 North Finchley District Barnet 183 779 1,830 2,797 4,160 Temple Fortune District Barnet 210 767 1,502 2,202 3,153 Whetstone District Barnet 87 314 789 1,270 1,937 Residual Residual Barnet 1,290 8,766 20,389 33,605 52,310 Bexleyheath Major Bexley 650 2,506 6,663 11,228 17,348 Crayford District Bexley 159 471 1,086 1,708 2,525 Erith District Bexley 26 201 695 1,311 2,179

281

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Sidcup District Bexley 30 270 988 1,722 2,766 Welling District Bexley -27 361 1,575 3,032 5,066 Residual Residual Bexley 20 174 606 1,049 1,674 Kilburn Major Brent 585 1,446 3,080 4,834 7,248 Wembley Major Brent 204 485 1,102 1,973 3,259 Cricklewood District Brent 482 1,501 3,164 4,875 7,181 Ealing Road District Brent 21 47 190 410 754 Harlesden District Brent 115 310 838 1,453 2,412 Kenton District Brent -29 5 232 503 938 Kingsbury District Brent 128 306 747 1,373 2,339 Neasden District Brent -38 -89 50 394 889 Preston Road District Brent 31 63 185 359 643 Wembley Park District Brent 36 120 435 837 1,478 Willesden Green District Brent 70 237 575 861 1,268 Residual Residual Brent 768 2,388 6,026 10,297 16,288 Bromley Metropolitan Bromley 1,137 4,268 12,626 21,659 34,182 Orpington Major Bromley 74 654 2,451 4,762 7,946 Beckenham District Bromley -75 -34 509 1,014 1,827 Crystal Palace District Bromley -37 -36 175 385 724 Penge District Bromley -69 -42 443 909 1,633 Petts Wood District Bromley -95 -83 270 713 1,368 West Wickham District Bromley -139 -113 453 1,204 2,325 Residual Residual Bromley 168 958 3,295 6,213 10,300 Camden Town Major Camden 1,296 2,918 5,541 8,416 12,360 Hampstead District Camden 93 487 1,144 1,697 2,468

282

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Kentish Town District Camden 32 231 821 1,433 2,341 Swiss Cottage/Finchley Road District Camden 161 732 1,661 2,502 3,618 West Hampstead District Camden 45 214 455 614 816 Residual Residual Camden 1,053 2,380 4,626 6,960 10,052 Cheapside CAZ Frontage City of London 457 1,030 2,061 3,080 4,473 Fleet Street CAZ Frontage City of London 206 500 1,049 1,576 2,281 Leadenhall Market CAZ Frontage City of London 677 1,414 2,559 3,688 5,211 Liverpool Street CAZ Frontage City of London 1,037 2,321 4,808 7,339 10,876 Moorgate CAZ Frontage City of London 1,092 2,500 5,349 8,240 12,264 Residual Residual City of London 2,682 6,257 13,279 20,232 29,701 Croydon Metropolitan Croydon 1,727 5,013 16,906 30,013 2,079 Addiscombe District Croydon 6 20 214 412 721 Coulsdon District Croydon 103 299 718 1,190 1,776 Norbury District Croydon 16 53 563 1,298 2,447 Purley District Croydon 61 181 480 826 1,265 South Norwood District Croydon -14 -21 162 345 639 Thornton Heath District Croydon 60 79 513 1,078 1,952 Upper Norwood District Croydon -32 -29 215 461 865 Residual Residual Croydon 926 3,089 10,684 9,678 22,330 Ealing Metropolitan Ealing 461 1,507 4,297 6,971 11,033 Southall Major Ealing 233 964 2,514 4,865 8,437 Acton District Ealing 132 302 798 1,207 1,820 Greenford District Ealing -13 80 461 1,096 2,048 Hanwell District Ealing 10 50 177 388 719 Residual Residual Ealing 110 615 2,714 5,490 9,726

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Enfield Town Major Enfield 394 1,381 3,777 6,698 10,641 Angel Edmonton District Enfield -19 11 251 562 1,027 Edmonton Green District Enfield -23 11 337 750 1,378 Palmers Green District Enfield -40 47 590 1,144 1,955 Southgate District Enfield 15 166 651 1,073 1,669 Residual Residual Enfield 644 2,135 6,266 11,443 18,817 Eltham Major Greenwich 224 1,046 3,210 5,758 9,420 Woolwich Major Greenwich 732 1,978 4,534 7,958 12,850 Greenwich West District Greenwich 311 756 1,497 2,036 2,795 Plumstead District Greenwich -6 15 121 344 679 Thamesmead District Greenwich 40 180 568 1,362 2,577 Residual Residual Greenwich 1,400 3,563 7,601 11,704 17,447 Dalston Major Hackney 510 1,133 2,885 4,825 7,682 Finsbury Park District Hackney 61 170 782 1,435 2,420 Mare Street District Hackney 295 655 1,519 2,455 3,867 Stoke Newington District Hackney 64 170 744 1,471 2,565 Residual Residual Hackney 429 966 2,392 3,906 6,010 Fulham Major Hammersmith and Fulham 356 747 1,328 1,891 2,656 Hammersmith Major Hammersmith and Fulham 446 1,264 3,234 4,934 7,392 Shepherds Bush District Hammersmith and Fulham 156 508 1,538 2,530 3,970 Residual Residual Hammersmith and Fulham 115 562 2,027 3,054 4,520 Wood Green Metropolitan Haringey 589 -5,893 7,763 5,603 13,935 Crouch End District Haringey 5 109 783 1,268 2,061 Green Lanes District Haringey 76 151 453 819 1,347 Muswell Hill District Haringey -6 222 901 1,288 1,947

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Tottenham District Haringey 32 97 505 1,115 2,021 West Green Road District Haringey 20 46 317 648 1,111 Residual Residual Haringey 191 559 2,385 4,800 8,405 Harrow Metropolitan Harrow 296 1,579 6,259 11,234 18,435 North Harrow District Harrow -25 -6 99 203 364 Pinner District Harrow -26 47 299 547 907 Rayners Lane District Harrow -54 -7 223 501 916 South Harrow District Harrow -123 -84 325 924 1,826 Stanmore District Harrow 28 111 317 534 832 Wealdstone District Harrow -2 166 662 1,110 1,743 Residual Residual Harrow -48 94 587 1,051 1,713 Romford Metropolitan Havering 2,357 5,955 2,687 11,354 22,951 Collier Row District Havering 65 166 489 849 1,358 Elm Park District Havering -27 -32 36 118 238 Harold Hill District Havering 30 111 320 545 854 Hornchurch District Havering 35 264 1,090 1,912 3,050 Rainham District Havering 51 170 428 750 1,185 Upminster District Havering 174 610 1,633 2,655 4,019 Residual Residual Havering 623 1,799 4,665 7,578 11,497 Uxbridge Metropolitan Hillingdon 255 2,048 7,180 12,622 20,285 Eastcote District Hillingdon -97 -43 277 667 1,232 Hayes District Hillingdon 53 406 1,263 2,367 3,970 Ickenham District Hillingdon -41 20 205 396 684 Northwood District Hillingdon 19 106 318 528 808 Ruislip District Hillingdon -130 73 765 1,543 2,670

285

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Yiewsley/West Drayton District Hillingdon 9 184 638 1,081 1,725 Residual Residual Hillingdon 58 1,798 5,990 11,044 18,299 Hounslow Metropolitan Hounslow 1,286 3,562 8,548 650 9,898 Chiswick Major Hounslow 344 994 2,608 3,983 5,997 Brentford District Hounslow 79 179 486 828 1,341 Feltham High Street District Hounslow 245 643 1,462 2,677 4,351 Residual Residual Hounslow 259 515 1,297 2,450 4,186 Angel Major Islington 921 2,102 5,083 8,038 12,085 Nags Head Major Islington 397 1,133 3,366 5,754 9,292 Archway District Islington 25 191 706 1,118 1,807 Residual Residual Islington 148 344 1,313 2,304 3,785 Kensington High Street Major Kensington and Chelsea 292 3,759 9,073 13,866 20,088 Kings Road East Major Kensington and Chelsea 7,173 14,242 23,338 32,981 45,923 Earls Court Road District Kensington and Chelsea 53 184 592 821 1,147 Fulham Road (east) District Kensington and Chelsea 772 1,687 3,185 4,591 6,496 Fulham Road (west) District Kensington and Chelsea 610 1,307 2,564 3,662 5,166 Kings Road (west) District Kensington and Chelsea 1,193 2,404 3,960 5,578 7,764 Notting Hill Gate District Kensington and Chelsea 864 1,701 2,797 3,979 5,512 Portobello Road District Kensington and Chelsea 974 2,151 4,282 6,595 9,710 South Kensington District Kensington and Chelsea 65 248 701 1,028 1,489 Residual Residual Kensington and Chelsea 934 2,237 4,848 7,368 10,841 Kingston Metropolitan Kingston upon Thames 2,905 9,985 23,580 37,504 6,218 New Malden District Kingston upon Thames 84 398 1,054 1,830 2,880 Surbiton District Kingston upon Thames 114 370 832 1,321 1,999 Tolworth District Kingston upon Thames 103 363 856 1,443 2,257

286

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Residual Residual Kingston upon Thames 150 639 1,604 2,708 4,227 Brixton Major Lambeth 426 1,210 3,205 5,394 8,606 Streatham Major Lambeth 188 547 1,791 3,176 5,217 Clapham High Street District Lambeth 61 297 1,009 1,705 2,702 Stockwell District Lambeth 7 88 353 611 995 Tulse Hill District Lambeth -16 -1 104 187 341 West Norwood District Lambeth -9 29 189 321 545 Lower Marsh CAZ Frontage Lambeth 537 1,245 2,493 3,639 5,159 Residual Residual Lambeth 22 265 1,170 2,149 3,616 Catford Major Lewisham 73 264 946 1,714 2,878 Lewisham Major Lewisham 862 2,495 6,691 10,508 16,121 Blackheath District Lewisham 1 33 92 155 250 Deptford District Lewisham 232 590 1,236 1,598 2,099 Downham District Lewisham -7 5 94 292 624 Forest Hill District Lewisham -4 43 310 572 978 Lee Green District Lewisham 3 59 249 465 803 New Cross District Lewisham 244 643 1,444 1,976 2,722 Sydenham District Lewisham -53 -20 379 857 1,601 Residual Residual Lewisham 167 562 1,770 3,204 5,387 Wimbledon Major Merton 150 1,322 4,693 8,039 12,815 Mitcham District Merton -31 9 344 785 1,444 Morden District Merton -33 38 404 869 1,556 Residual Residual Merton -70 377 2,145 4,006 6,701 East Ham Major Newham 655 1,461 3,573 6,037 9,584 Stratford Major Newham 7,282 16,080 29,623 43,056 62,540

287

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Canning Town District Newham 621 1,143 1,918 2,675 3,748 East Beckton District Newham 374 733 1,576 2,674 4,200 Forest Gate District Newham 263 613 1,399 2,187 3,372 Upton Park District Newham 602 1,158 2,879 4,821 7,789 Residual Residual Newham 1,457 3,269 7,569 12,653 19,738 Ilford Metropolitan Redbridge 2,931 1,345 10,346 20,465 34,751 Barkingside District Redbridge 198 462 1,100 1,887 2,999 Gants Hill District Redbridge 122 279 698 1,187 1,895 South Woodford District Redbridge 162 404 1,001 1,550 2,421 Wanstead District Redbridge 93 239 515 734 1,075 Residual Residual Redbridge 578 1,274 3,296 5,667 9,075 Richmond Major Richmond upon Thames 643 1,928 4,781 7,706 11,779 East Sheen District Richmond upon Thames 86 304 1,005 1,691 2,672 Teddington District Richmond upon Thames 110 372 983 1,669 2,644 Twickenham District Richmond upon Thames 402 916 1,822 2,809 4,186 Whitton District Richmond Upon Thames 36 100 277 600 1,082 Residual Residual Richmond Upon Thames 391 1,179 3,136 5,504 8,896 Peckham Major Southwark 895 2,276 5,003 7,315 10,587 Camberwell District Southwark 161 463 1,151 1,803 2,767 Dulwich - Lordship Lane District Southwark 90 291 773 1,011 1,359 Elephant and Castle District Southwark 1,645 4,246 9,697 15,188 22,974 Surrey Quays District Southwark 1,494 3,283 5,833 7,799 10,406 Walworth Road District Southwark 691 1,859 4,247 6,660 10,186 Borough High Street CAZ Frontage Southwark 1,204 2,590 4,784 6,843 9,678 Residual Residual Southwark 1,227 3,016 6,290 9,320 13,542

288

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Sutton Metropolitan Sutton 621 3,056 9,992 16,838 26,421 Cheam District Sutton 35 151 439 691 1,031 North Cheam District Sutton 28 185 603 1,107 1,812 Rosehill District Sutton -10 12 145 314 568 Wallington District Sutton 13 122 492 905 1,468 Worcester Park District Sutton 26 212 669 1,235 2,023 Residual Residual Sutton -4 56 372 747 1,286 Canary Wharf Major Tower Hamlets 2,848 5,703 10,209 14,300 4,523 Bethnal Green District Tower Hamlets 463 931 1,706 2,536 3,748 Chrisp Street District Tower Hamlets 556 1,090 1,829 2,566 3,611 Crossharbour District Tower Hamlets 0 0 0 0 0 Poplar District Tower Hamlets 524 1,024 1,746 2,408 3,339 Roman Road (east) District Tower Hamlets 563 1,120 1,920 2,750 4,014 Watney Market District Tower Hamlets 839 1,737 3,270 4,835 7,018 Whitechapel District Tower Hamlets 417 849 1,509 2,172 3,075 Residual Residual Tower Hamlets 2,042 4,125 7,590 11,388 16,751 Walthamstow Major Waltham Forest 610 1,525 4,411 7,808 13,030 Bakers Arms District Waltham Forest 122 281 819 1,364 2,260 Leyton - High Road Leyton District Waltham Forest 78 172 378 556 870 Leytonstone District Waltham Forest 376 904 1,871 2,798 4,189 North Chingford District Waltham Forest 141 398 952 1,611 2,568 South Chingford District Waltham Forest 51 176 615 1,213 2,143 Wood Street District Waltham Forest 37 89 287 484 824 Residual Residual Waltham Forest 281 571 1,136 1,692 2,546 Clapham Junction Major Wandsworth 413 1,467 4,123 6,807 10,689

289

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Putney Major Wandsworth 341 1,195 3,315 5,343 8,200 Tooting Major Wandsworth 83 767 3,058 5,460 8,869 Wandsworth Major Wandsworth 286 990 2,680 4,302 6,579 Balham District Wandsworth 0 130 631 1,041 1,607 Residual Residual Wandsworth 573 2,040 5,925 9,922 15,873 Knightsbridge International Westminster 3,751 12,803 26,640 41,584 61,380 West End International Westminster 5,366 9,764 94,373 185,784 305,545 Queensway/Westbourne Grove Major Westminster 666 1,675 3,753 5,818 8,640 Edgware Road/Church Street District Westminster 252 659 1,451 2,259 3,321 Harrow Road District Westminster 7 62 351 713 1,251 Praed Street/Paddington District Westminster 303 790 1,749 2,698 3,934 St John's Wood District Westminster 34 215 555 902 1,371 Edgware Road South CAZ Frontage Westminster 153 327 448 671 1,001 Marylebone High Street CAZ Frontage Westminster 333 1,010 2,692 4,320 6,514 Victoria Street CAZ Frontage Westminster 620 2,028 5,275 8,475 13,029 Warwick Way/Tachbrook St CAZ Frontage Westminster 152 499 1,278 2,143 3,402 Residual Residual Westminster 123 677 2,316 4,397 7,461

290

APPENDIX 11 – NET ADDITIONAL COMPARSION GOODS FLOORSPACE REQUIREMENTS BY BOROUGH

Table 8: Net Additional Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (2006-2011) – Timeline scenario, fixed productivity growth, assumes centre specific capacity for additional developments Productivity growth Sub-region Borough 1.50% 2.20% 2.80% North Barnet 6,820 3,632 1,073 Camden 2,788 1,768 927 Enfield 2,679 1,380 309 Hackney 1,608 931 374 Haringey 3,245 1,620 280 Islington 2,239 1,279 487 Westminster 18,049 7,166 726 Total 35,708 15,801 2,419 North East City Of London 5,061 3,359 1,955 Tower Hamlets 4,907 3,594 2,511 Newham 16,354 11,147 6,852 Waltham Forest 2,257 1,278 473 Redbridge 4,440 2,669 1,208 Havering 4,985 2,854 1,096 Barking and Dagenham 1,502 881 368 Total 36,363 23,611 13,091 South East Southwark 8,035 5,220 2,904 Lewisham 2,635 1,434 446 Greenwich 3,191 1,888 813 Bexley 2,317 1,218 313 Bromley 4,700 2,312 344 Total 20,568 11,900 4,749 South West Croydon 8,071 4,171 954 Lambeth 1,904 1,070 382 Merton 1,818 829 -7 Sutton 2,892 1,436 236 Kingston upon Thames 5,573 3,138 1,130 Richmond upon Thames 2,565 1,456 541 Wandsworth 5,236 2,753 707 Total 27,899 14,767 3,934 West Hammersmith and Fulham 1,365 739 227 Brent 3,583 2,041 770 Ealing 2,433 1,253 279 Harrow 2,284 1,046 41 Hillingdon 3,829 1,752 39 Hounslow 3,177 1,819 698 Kensington and Chelsea 10,173 6,836 4,091 Total 26,709 15,400 6,074 London Total 143,172 76,352 23,274 CAZ 20,652 8,793 1,331

291

Table 9: Net Additional Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (2006-2016) – Timeline scenario, fixed productivity growth, assumes centre specific capacity for additional developments Productivity growth Sub-region Borough 1.50% 2.20% 2.80% North Barnet 27,424 16,801 8,336 Camden 9,685 6,312 3,616 Enfield 9,326 5,143 1,801 Hackney 5,203 3,021 1,281 Haringey 4,454 565 3,226 Islington 7,434 4,332 1,853 Westminster 62,180 25,206 3,296 Total 120,342 54,306 10,464 North East City Of London 16,828 11,194 6,693 Tower Hamlets 15,464 11,053 7,529 Newham 54,055 36,744 22,919 Waltham Forest 7,395 4,243 1,731 Redbridge 10,071 4,611 774 Havering 16,927 10,013 4,488 Barking and Dagenham 4,932 2,920 1,313 Total 113,714 71,827 38,383 South East Southwark 27,483 18,153 10,716 Lewisham 9,130 5,244 2,141 Greenwich 11,122 6,858 3,451 Bexley 8,476 4,902 2,047 Bromley 16,644 8,965 2,829 Total 71,804 43,518 20,914 South West Croydon 26,769 14,293 4,323 Lambeth 6,556 3,849 1,686 Merton 6,572 3,399 865 Sutton 10,310 5,621 1,874 Kingston upon Thames 20,214 12,245 5,878 Richmond upon Thames 8,787 5,188 2,311 Wandsworth 18,398 10,374 3,964 Total 97,052 54,653 20,773 West Hammersmith and Fulham 4,681 2,657 1,047 Brent 12,330 7,321 3,318 Ealing 8,457 4,657 1,621 Harrow 7,908 3,935 779 Hillingdon 14,028 7,319 1,975 Hounslow 10,745 6,343 2,825 Kensington and Chelsea 35,712 24,491 15,525 Total 93,268 56,309 26,773

London Total 483,252 264,326 95,113 CAZ 70,669 30,470 5,399

292

Table 10: Net Additional Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (2006-2021) – Timeline scenario, fixed productivity growth, assumes centre specific capacity for additional developments Productivity growth Sub-region Borough 1.50% 2.20% 2.80% North Barnet 67,657 43,701 25,169 Camden 23,451 15,786 9,852 Enfield 24,280 14,895 7,629 Hackney 13,614 8,666 4,838 Haringey 29,265 17,607 8,583 Islington 19,388 12,360 6,919 Westminster 217,422 121,125 51,673 Total 389,589 227,402 106,322 North East City Of London 41,802 28,824 18,780 Tower Hamlets 36,426 26,201 18,287 Newham 128,042 88,502 57,895 Waltham Forest 18,724 11,654 6,184 Redbridge 30,315 17,520 7,833 Havering 28,845 14,050 3,704 Barking and Dagenham 13,068 8,477 4,922 Total 269,489 174,138 100,556 South East Southwark 69,047 47,512 30,858 Lewisham 23,921 15,127 8,321 Greenwich 27,957 18,285 10,799 Bexley 22,112 14,024 7,764 Bromley 44,012 26,773 13,430 Total 184,237 119,946 70,180 South West Croydon 69,303 41,476 19,936 Lambeth 17,090 10,948 6,193 Merton 17,491 10,398 4,907 Sutton 26,984 16,467 8,325 Kingston upon Thames 50,396 32,431 18,524 Richmond upon Thames 21,947 13,865 7,610 Wandsworth 47,575 29,539 15,580 Total 249,347 154,221 80,589 West Hammersmith and Fulham 12,005 7,454 3,937 Brent 30,647 19,405 10,703 Ealing 21,770 13,271 6,691 Harrow 21,241 12,374 5,514 Hillingdon 37,006 22,012 10,410 Hounslow 26,637 16,774 9,139 Kensington and Chelsea 84,220 58,572 38,717 Total 232,056 148,830 84,406

London Total 1,313,743 812,217 426,736 CAZ 239,912 136,765 61,630

293

Table 11: Net Additional Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (2006-2026) – Timeline scenario, fixed productivity growth, assumes centre specific capacity for additional developments

Productivity growth Sub-region Borough 1.50% 2.20% 2.80% North Barnet 130,141 85,019 51,197 Camden 43,862 29,431 18,612 Enfield 48,406 30,706 17,435 Hackney 26,814 17,446 10,422 Haringey 44,971 23,673 8,407 Islington 37,367 24,162 14,260 Westminster 474,697 285,641 148,145 Total 801,622 490,437 261,173 North East City Of London 79,032 54,325 35,800 Tower Hamlets 45,627 47,936 33,256 Newham 22,995 163,267 107,195 Waltham Forest 36,437 23,173 13,230 Redbridge 63,064 38,693 20,565 Havering 63,839 35,286 14,646 Barking and Dagenham 26,280 17,477 10,877 Total 327,811 346,758 211,242 South East Southwark 47,914 88,937 58,282 Lewisham 15,697 29,369 17,027 Greenwich 54,770 36,373 22,582 Bexley 43,374 28,098 16,645 Bromley 24,205 54,761 30,486 Total 175,032 233,866 142,836 South West Croydon 59,356 68,565 30,279 Lambeth 33,042 21,476 12,804 Merton 34,166 20,961 11,061 Sutton 52,047 32,458 17,771 Kingston upon Thames 31,192 62,305 37,053 Richmond upon Thames 42,401 27,235 15,865 Wandsworth 91,459 57,794 32,556 Total 321,453 288,075 154,916 West Hammersmith and Fulham 22,329 13,929 7,636 Brent 59,681 38,513 22,642 Ealing 43,326 27,327 15,332 Harrow 41,699 25,221 12,869 Hillingdon 72,967 44,961 23,967 Hounslow 32,190 14,891 3,582 Kensington and Chelsea 155,786 107,266 70,890 Total 422,645 266,427 149,462

London Total 2,038,548 1,611,506 904,313 CAZ 517,254 315,416 168,053

294

Table 12: Net Additional Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (2006-2031) – Timeline scenario, fixed productivity growth, assumes centre specific capacity for additional developments Productivity growth Sub-region Borough 1.50% 2.20% 2.80% North Barnet 191,142 126,041 78,770 Camden 63,005 42,244 27,167 Enfield 72,753 47,151 28,560 Hackney 40,422 26,756 16,833 Haringey 73,076 42,139 20,048 Islington 55,283 36,221 22,379 Westminster 743,191 465,360 266,523 Total 1,234,948 781,358 454,608 North East City Of London 114,858 78,830 52,667 Tower Hamlets 75,021 46,837 26,849 Newham 97,557 236,571 157,551 Waltham Forest 54,927 35,702 21,741 Redbridge 97,387 61,922 36,250 Havering 100,340 59,083 29,590 Barking and Dagenham 39,806 26,850 17,441 Total 578,164 497,122 306,388 South East Southwark 100,376 129,473 86,161 Lewisham 35,076 14,285 26,927 Greenwich 81,952 55,047 35,509 Bexley 64,156 42,097 26,078 Bromley 60,842 21,486 49,734 Total 334,062 232,036 220,789 South West Croydon 120,414 52,223 10,403 Lambeth 49,058 32,311 20,150 Merton 50,681 31,842 18,161 Sutton 76,244 48,345 28,084 Kingston upon Thames 68,724 27,021 3,775 Richmond upon Thames 62,477 40,665 24,826 Wandsworth 134,676 86,473 51,472 Total 543,940 295,522 122,315 West Hammersmith and Fulham 32,009 20,154 11,548 Brent 88,673 58,076 35,856 Ealing 66,055 42,800 25,912 Harrow 62,021 38,557 21,518 Hillingdon 108,784 68,703 39,599 Hounslow 57,557 31,351 13,210 Kensington and Chelsea 221,644 151,606 100,747 Total 630,980 405,958 242,633

London Total 3,317,515 2,197,931 1,322,127 CAZ 804,816 508,418 273,886

295

APPENDIX 12 – NET ADDITIONAL COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE REQUIREMENTS BY TOWN CENTRE

Table 13: Net additional comparison goods floorspace requirements by town centre (2011 - 2031) using 1.5% growth Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Barking & Dagenham Major Barking and Dagenham 666 2,161 5,622 11,181 16,849 Chadwell Heath District Barking and Dagenham 110 341 875 1,739 2,620 Dagenham & Heathway District Barking and Dagenham 249 854 2,364 4,847 7,388 Residual Residual Barking and Dagenham 477 1,576 4,207 8,513 12,949 Edgware Major Barnet 643 2,389 5,826 11,270 16,537 Brent Street District Barnet 81 327 768 1,426 2,039 Burnt Oak District Barnet 263 956 2,322 4,552 6,796 Chipping Barnet District Barnet 382 1,430 3,552 6,831 9,872 Church End, Finchley District Barnet 205 806 1,994 3,709 5,292 Colindale/The Hyde District Barnet 280 889 1,749 3,386 5,214 East Finchley District Barnet 85 350 904 1,610 2,266 Golders Green District Barnet 169 701 1,646 2,994 4,211 Hendon central District Barnet 270 1,057 2,501 4,742 6,874 Mill Hill District Barnet 187 705 1,729 3,358 4,930 New Barnet District Barnet 173 650 1,629 3,163 4,636 North Finchley District Barnet 330 1,303 3,276 6,125 8,798 Temple Fortune District Barnet 243 986 2,367 4,371 6,206 Whetstone District Barnet 148 560 1,431 2,740 3,996 Residual Residual Barnet 3,361 14,316 35,960 69,867 103,477 Bexleyheath Major Bexley 1,296 4,714 12,123 23,623 34,701 Crayford District Bexley 198 706 1,773 3,372 4,865

296

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Erith District Bexley 139 514 1,380 2,811 4,294 Sidcup District Bexley 218 792 2,109 4,098 6,053 Welling District Bexley 342 1,292 3,500 7,077 10,702 Residual Residual Bexley 123 458 1,227 2,391 3,540 Kilburn Major Brent 626 2,113 5,120 9,697 14,049 Wembley Major Brent 245 807 1,974 3,966 6,076 Cricklewood District Brent 601 2,174 5,247 9,847 14,114 Ealing Road District Brent 55 175 457 956 1,517 Harlesden District Brent 197 658 1,659 3,238 4,898 Kenton District Brent 76 268 727 1,462 2,249 Kingsbury District Brent 188 616 1,505 3,014 4,634 Neasden District Brent 41 119 385 1,006 1,751 Preston Road District Brent 54 168 419 845 1,320 Wembley Park District Brent 120 398 1,024 2,047 3,153 Willesden Green District Brent 118 422 1,049 1,929 2,738 Residual Residual Brent 1,263 4,411 11,080 21,674 32,174 Bromley Metropolitan Bromley 2,750 9,684 25,102 4,038 21,117 Orpington Major Bromley 567 2,043 5,412 5,802 11,396 Beckenham District Bromley 166 576 1,634 1,682 3,279 Crystal Palace District Bromley 63 215 624 655 1,296 Penge District Bromley 147 507 1,449 1,502 2,927 Petts Wood District Bromley 97 357 1,047 1,154 2,322 West Wickham District Bromley 169 611 1,753 1,936 3,912 Residual Residual Bromley 741 2,652 6,991 7,435 14,591 Camden Town Major Camden 1,091 3,621 8,564 16,111 23,329

297

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Hampstead District Camden 226 882 2,187 4,000 5,644 Kentish Town District Camden 181 660 1,767 3,450 5,163 Swiss Cottage/Finchley Road District Camden 327 1,261 3,104 5,728 8,079 West Hampstead District Camden 85 339 820 1,438 1,939 Residual Residual Camden 878 2,921 7,009 13,134 18,850 Cheapside CAZ Frontage City of London 349 1,161 2,853 5,362 7,763 Fleet Street CAZ Frontage City of London 173 591 1,481 2,788 4,021 Leadenhall Market CAZ Frontage City of London 422 1,363 3,227 5,970 8,552 Liverpool Street CAZ Frontage City of London 850 2,804 6,950 13,179 19,264 Moorgate CAZ Frontage City of London 960 3,185 7,963 15,140 22,132 Residual Residual City of London 2,306 7,724 19,328 36,595 53,127 Croydon Metropolitan Croydon 4,464 14,763 38,047 23,808 55,189 Addiscombe District Croydon 77 243 647 829 1,442 Coulsdon District Croydon 148 513 1,282 1,640 2,761 Norbury District Croydon 193 611 1,645 2,266 4,170 Purley District Croydon 107 365 925 1,195 2,028 South Norwood District Croydon 67 210 585 759 1,336 Thornton Heath District Croydon 186 554 1,458 1,945 3,490 Upper Norwood District Croydon 75 251 721 947 1,693 Residual Residual Croydon 2,755 9,259 23,992 25,968 48,304 Ealing Metropolitan Ealing 940 3,245 8,252 15,633 22,939 Southall Major Ealing 495 1,805 4,547 9,437 14,878 Acton District Ealing 181 588 1,478 2,724 3,899 Greenford District Ealing 113 406 1,093 2,378 3,833 Hanwell District Ealing 37 131 347 755 1,238

298

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Residual Residual Ealing 667 2,282 6,054 12,398 19,270 Enfield Town Major Enfield 788 2,780 7,126 14,165 21,095 Angel Edmonton District Enfield 74 256 713 1,476 2,289 Edmonton Green District Enfield 100 340 954 1,971 3,065 Palmers Green District Enfield 166 583 1,611 3,171 4,728 Southgate District Enfield 153 549 1,454 2,746 3,956 Residual Residual Enfield 1,398 4,818 12,423 24,877 37,620 Eltham Major Greenwich 627 2,268 5,963 11,905 18,002 Woolwich Major Greenwich 859 2,961 7,374 14,829 22,599 Greenwich West District Greenwich 239 823 2,001 3,555 4,946 Plumstead District Greenwich 37 128 341 776 1,284 Thamesmead District Greenwich 141 493 1,251 2,788 4,594 Residual Residual Greenwich 1,289 4,450 11,028 20,917 30,528 Dalston Major Hackney 560 1,805 4,658 9,130 13,736 Finsbury Park District Hackney 171 555 1,543 3,084 4,704 Mare Street District Hackney 290 938 2,366 4,575 6,854 Stoke Newington District Hackney 165 532 1,469 3,038 4,747 Residual Residual Hackney 423 1,374 3,578 6,988 10,381 Fulham Major Hammersmith and Fulham 190 616 1,433 2,623 3,719 Hammersmith Major Hammersmith and Fulham 549 1,882 4,784 8,892 12,765 Shepherds Bush District Hammersmith and Fulham 272 935 2,442 4,668 6,843 Residual Residual Hammersmith and Fulham 354 1,248 3,346 6,145 8,682 Wood Green Metropolitan Haringey 1,865 1,519 16,853 23,204 38,708 Crouch End District Haringey 215 461 1,993 3,278 4,961 Green Lanes District Haringey 115 230 931 1,639 2,576

299

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Muswell Hill District Haringey 216 511 2,118 3,344 4,905 Tottenham District Haringey 135 280 1,200 2,265 3,749 West Green Road District Haringey 86 174 764 1,388 2,209 Residual Residual Haringey 612 1,280 5,405 9,851 15,966 Harrow Metropolitan Harrow 1,602 5,412 14,419 28,208 41,886 North Harrow District Harrow 32 120 335 657 982 Pinner District Harrow 78 288 783 1,522 2,241 Rayners Lane District Harrow 67 256 718 1,463 2,237 South Harrow District Harrow 115 432 1,253 2,692 4,272 Stanmore District Harrow 73 251 647 1,248 1,822 Wealdstone District Harrow 164 589 1,560 2,963 4,278 Residual Residual Harrow 153 562 1,528 2,948 4,303 Romford Metropolitan Havering 3,078 10,319 14,905 35,006 56,639 Collier Row District Havering 118 388 821 1,724 2,661 Elm Park District Havering 17 62 160 364 588 Harold Hill District Havering 71 250 528 1,099 1,680 Hornchurch District Havering 266 935 2,049 4,267 6,500 Rainham District Havering 84 299 626 1,343 2,094 Upminster District Havering 340 1,208 2,537 5,209 7,837 Residual Residual Havering 1,010 3,466 7,220 14,825 22,339 Uxbridge Metropolitan Hillingdon 1,680 5,986 15,754 30,667 45,189 Eastcote District Hillingdon 83 330 952 1,964 3,009 Hayes District Hillingdon 279 1,010 2,631 5,304 8,080 Ickenham District Hillingdon 51 209 573 1,126 1,682 Northwood District Hillingdon 70 249 647 1,239 1,788

300

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Ruislip District Hillingdon 194 765 2,108 4,213 6,335 Yiewsley/West Drayton District Hillingdon 148 540 1,417 2,710 3,965 Residual Residual Hillingdon 1,325 4,939 12,926 25,744 38,737 Hounslow Metropolitan Hounslow 1,852 6,335 15,651 15,430 30,303 Chiswick Major Hounslow 577 1,970 4,956 7,193 11,254 Brentford District Hounslow 117 379 954 1,451 2,365 Feltham High Street District Hounslow 313 1,066 2,603 4,152 6,898 Residual Residual Hounslow 317 995 2,473 3,965 6,738 Angel Major Islington 1,008 3,301 8,458 16,153 23,557 Nags Head Major Islington 745 2,513 6,579 12,844 19,253 Archway District Islington 163 587 1,559 2,907 4,275 Residual Residual Islington 324 1,034 2,792 5,464 8,198 Kensington High Street Major Kensington and Chelsea 1,353 6,252 16,041 30,166 43,001 Kings Road East Major Kensington and Chelsea 4,293 14,060 31,445 57,575 81,686 Earls Court Road District Kensington and Chelsea 140 500 1,313 2,335 3,205 Fulham Road (east) District Kensington and Chelsea 623 2,124 5,032 9,241 13,083 Fulham Road (west) District Kensington and Chelsea 525 1,768 4,235 7,720 10,868 Kings Road (west) District Kensington and Chelsea 727 2,400 5,380 9,826 13,927 Notting Hill Gate District Kensington and Chelsea 519 1,693 3,792 6,970 9,851 Portobello Road District Kensington and Chelsea 860 2,932 7,070 13,428 19,448 South Kensington District Kensington and Chelsea 151 561 1,454 2,652 3,726 Residual Residual Kensington and Chelsea 981 3,421 8,456 15,874 22,849 Kingston Metropolitan Kingston upon Thames 4,710 17,038 42,423 22,350 52,639 New Malden District Kingston upon Thames 216 801 2,034 2,279 4,157 Surbiton District Kingston upon Thames 160 577 1,427 1,549 2,784

301

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Tolworth District Kingston upon Thames 168 613 1,527 1,703 3,117 Residual Residual Kingston upon Thames 319 1,184 2,984 3,311 6,028 Brixton Major Lambeth 582 1,995 5,153 10,049 15,057 Streatham Major Lambeth 404 1,340 3,480 6,801 10,158 Clapham High Street District Lambeth 196 696 1,850 3,562 5,238 Stockwell District Lambeth 68 248 674 1,304 1,941 Tulse Hill District Lambeth 25 93 268 512 775 West Norwood District Lambeth 39 144 402 764 1,144 Lower Marsh CAZ Frontage Lambeth 382 1,285 3,140 5,793 8,226 Residual Residual Lambeth 208 755 2,124 4,257 6,517 Catford Major Lewisham 215 733 1,958 2,282 4,275 Lewisham Major Lewisham 1,337 4,602 11,924 2,084 10,029 Blackheath District Lewisham 11 49 137 160 306 Deptford District Lewisham 207 719 1,786 1,808 3,009 Downham District Lewisham 25 87 249 356 783 Forest Hill District Lewisham 76 263 738 852 1,585 Lee Green District Lewisham 50 185 510 604 1,153 New Cross District Lewisham 248 863 2,186 2,280 3,892 Sydenham District Lewisham 110 389 1,123 1,361 2,617 Residual Residual Lewisham 356 1,239 3,309 3,910 7,427 Wimbledon Major Merton 1,061 3,852 10,106 19,455 28,532 Mitcham District Merton 105 362 1,006 2,085 3,239 Morden District Merton 110 396 1,089 2,237 3,446 Residual Residual Merton 542 1,961 5,291 10,391 15,465 East Ham Major Newham 1,240 4,090 10,362 6,281 16,080

302

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Stratford Major Newham 9,994 33,394 76,542 -7,956 18,706 Canning Town District Newham 577 1,748 3,905 2,168 5,258 East Beckton District Newham 491 1,551 3,873 2,410 6,265 Forest Gate District Newham 503 1,686 4,143 2,401 5,993 Upton Park District Newham 1,089 3,408 8,618 5,175 13,333 Residual Residual Newham 2,459 8,178 20,600 12,515 31,921 Ilford Metropolitan Redbridge 3,021 6,213 19,727 41,840 65,244 Barkingside District Redbridge 231 632 1,721 3,507 5,346 Gants Hill District Redbridge 153 415 1,136 2,295 3,489 South Woodford District Redbridge 214 594 1,623 3,139 4,689 Wanstead District Redbridge 103 292 774 1,448 2,097 Residual Residual Redbridge 718 1,925 5,333 10,834 16,521 Richmond Major Richmond upon Thames 1,005 3,480 8,681 16,527 24,021 East Sheen District Richmond upon Thames 241 819 2,118 4,051 5,915 Teddington District Richmond upon Thames 206 723 1,829 3,560 5,277 Twickenham District Richmond upon Thames 355 1,175 2,795 5,284 7,681 Whitton District Richmond Upon Thames 66 220 554 1,202 1,939 Residual Residual Richmond Upon Thames 692 2,370 5,970 11,778 17,646 Peckham Major Southwark 1,074 3,707 9,449 10,691 18,529 Camberwell District Southwark 247 874 2,307 2,700 4,836 Dulwich - Lordship Lane District Southwark 165 594 1,595 1,695 2,789 Elephant and Castle District Southwark 2,161 7,442 19,093 -8,576 2,422 Surrey Quays District Southwark 1,171 3,902 9,209 9,947 16,547 Walworth Road District Southwark 892 3,130 8,094 9,526 17,133 Borough High Street CAZ Frontage Southwark 1,025 3,355 8,027 9,031 15,578

303

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Residual Residual Southwark 1,301 4,480 11,272 12,901 22,542 Sutton Metropolitan Sutton 2,259 8,033 20,977 40,169 58,539 Cheam District Sutton 92 332 859 1,604 2,287 North Cheam District Sutton 132 481 1,257 2,504 3,756 Rosehill District Sutton 41 146 401 823 1,270 Wallington District Sutton 119 422 1,122 2,210 3,265 Worcester Park District Sutton 143 535 1,389 2,776 4,169 Residual Residual Sutton 105 363 980 1,962 2,957 Canary Wharf Major Tower Hamlets 1,671 5,257 12,374 8,638 17,503 Bethnal Green District Tower Hamlets 302 950 2,239 3,460 5,414 Chrisp Street District Tower Hamlets 302 938 2,134 3,203 4,896 Crossharbour District Tower Hamlets 0 0 0 0 0 Poplar District Tower Hamlets 269 836 1,932 2,875 4,366 Roman Road (east) District Tower Hamlets 337 1,057 2,417 3,660 5,697 Watney Market District Tower Hamlets 533 1,704 4,102 6,339 9,846 Whitechapel District Tower Hamlets 241 766 1,799 2,742 4,205 Residual Residual Tower Hamlets 1,252 3,956 9,426 14,709 23,093 Walthamstow Major Waltham Forest 991 3,235 8,362 16,592 25,322 Bakers Arms District Waltham Forest 197 632 1,619 3,110 4,682 Leyton - High Road Leyton District Waltham Forest 87 280 678 1,244 1,823 Leytonstone District Waltham Forest 363 1,210 2,933 5,464 7,940 North Chingford District Waltham Forest 183 629 1,587 3,129 4,715 South Chingford District Waltham Forest 147 494 1,295 2,659 4,165 Wood Street District Waltham Forest 74 237 609 1,169 1,770 Residual Residual Waltham Forest 216 679 1,641 3,070 4,511

304

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 1.5% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Clapham Junction Major Wandsworth 1,060 3,722 9,564 18,381 27,111 Putney Major Wandsworth 867 3,040 7,765 14,745 21,435 Tooting Major Wandsworth 886 3,145 8,329 16,286 24,143 Wandsworth Major Wandsworth 686 2,414 6,155 11,686 16,985 Balham District Wandsworth 185 658 1,776 3,353 4,811 Residual Residual Wandsworth 1,552 5,421 13,986 27,009 40,191 Knightsbridge International Westminster 2,858 10,998 32,844 67,609 102,310 West End International Westminster 12,725 42,388 157,136 349,935 553,019 Queensway/Westbourne Grove Major Westminster 478 1,646 4,989 10,163 15,318 Edgware Road/Church Street District Westminster 180 629 1,900 3,885 5,830 Harrow Road District Westminster 56 196 657 1,458 2,355 Praed Street/Paddington District Westminster 213 744 2,258 4,599 6,878 St John's Wood District Westminster 66 262 816 1,685 2,554 Edgware Road South CAZ Frontage Westminster 50 169 411 848 1,333 Marylebone High Street CAZ Frontage Westminster 342 1,210 3,826 7,881 11,925 Victoria Street CAZ Frontage Westminster 638 2,310 7,297 15,082 23,131 Warwick Way/Tachbrook St CAZ Frontage Westminster 144 527 1,677 3,566 5,621 Residual Residual Westminster 298 1,100 3,610 7,986 12,918

305

Table 14: Net additional comparison goods floorspace requirements by town centre (2011 - 2031) using 2.2% growth Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Barking & Dagenham Major Barking and Dagenham 421 1,361 3,779 7,628 11,585 Chadwell Heath District Barking and Dagenham 62 188 534 1,096 1,691 Dagenham & Heathway District Barking and Dagenham 128 463 1,476 3,148 4,899 Residual Residual Barking and Dagenham 270 908 2,688 5,605 8,674 Edgware Major Barnet 373 1,501 3,824 7,475 11,041 Brent Street District Barnet 48 216 517 955 1,365 Burnt Oak District Barnet 153 595 1,510 3,008 4,544 Chipping Barnet District Barnet 218 892 2,331 4,524 6,557 Church End, Finchley District Barnet 110 492 1,287 2,393 3,425 Colindale/The Hyde District Barnet 213 677 1,286 2,475 3,805 East Finchley District Barnet 37 190 546 960 1,363 Golders Green District Barnet 98 464 1,112 2,000 2,798 Hendon central District Barnet 159 690 1,674 3,179 4,617 Mill Hill District Barnet 108 445 1,140 2,238 3,305 New Barnet District Barnet 93 387 1,038 2,046 3,031 North Finchley District Barnet 170 771 2,076 3,897 5,637 Temple Fortune District Barnet 137 630 1,565 2,876 4,079 Whetstone District Barnet 77 326 903 1,752 2,583 Residual Residual Barnet 1,638 8,527 22,893 45,238 67,889 Bexleyheath Major Bexley 713 2,807 7,799 15,448 22,902 Crayford District Bexley 120 447 1,182 2,255 3,255 Erith District Bexley 68 286 864 1,826 2,850 Sidcup District Bexley 105 430 1,293 2,573 3,871

306

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Welling District Bexley 151 679 2,122 4,472 6,928 Residual Residual Bexley 60 254 764 1,523 2,290 Kilburn Major Brent 387 1,329 3,351 6,376 9,278 Wembley Major Brent 147 490 1,261 2,606 4,071 Cricklewood District Brent 357 1,371 3,438 6,459 9,275 Ealing Road District Brent 29 91 268 599 988 Harlesden District Brent 110 376 1,028 2,055 3,181 Kenton District Brent 29 121 402 858 1,382 Kingsbury District Brent 108 356 928 1,922 3,036 Neasden District Brent 12 29 186 612 1,150 Preston Road District Brent 30 92 250 527 854 Wembley Park District Brent 60 210 605 1,262 2,014 Willesden Green District Brent 66 252 666 1,222 1,741 Residual Residual Brent 707 2,605 7,021 14,017 21,104 Bromley Metropolitan Bromley 1,457 5,499 15,677 31,179 2,763 Orpington Major Bromley 271 1,092 3,279 6,968 5,480 Beckenham District Bromley 62 247 904 1,847 1,466 Crystal Palace District Bromley 22 86 338 715 580 Penge District Bromley 54 215 799 1,652 1,309 Petts Wood District Bromley 27 136 559 1,276 1,056 West Wickham District Bromley 52 241 935 2,144 1,784 Residual Residual Bromley 368 1,448 4,283 8,980 7,048 Camden Town Major Camden 739 2,451 5,897 11,044 15,959 Hampstead District Camden 120 533 1,400 2,549 3,601 Kentish Town District Camden 88 360 1,091 2,183 3,337

307

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Swiss Cottage/Finchley Road District Camden 178 772 2,002 3,686 5,197 West Hampstead District Camden 47 213 535 918 1,221 Residual Residual Camden 597 1,984 4,861 9,052 12,929 Cheapside CAZ Frontage City of London 237 789 1,994 3,725 5,372 Fleet Street CAZ Frontage City of London 114 395 1,028 1,924 2,765 Leadenhall Market CAZ Frontage City of London 309 982 2,339 4,268 6,051 Liverpool Street CAZ Frontage City of London 565 1,861 4,781 9,047 13,225 Moorgate CAZ Frontage City of London 624 2,077 5,419 10,305 15,084 Residual Residual City of London 1,509 5,090 13,261 25,055 36,335 Croydon Metropolitan Croydon 2,334 7,943 22,839 41,297 19,860 Addiscombe District Croydon 36 114 361 659 720 Coulsdon District Croydon 86 310 824 1,461 1,497 Norbury District Croydon 91 286 925 1,874 2,190 Purley District Croydon 59 212 581 1,048 1,088 South Norwood District Croydon 28 88 315 590 658 Thornton Heath District Croydon 95 269 826 1,593 1,804 Upper Norwood District Croydon 28 104 394 749 850 Residual Residual Croydon 1,415 4,967 14,411 19,293 23,557 Ealing Metropolitan Ealing 501 1,827 5,079 9,751 14,553 Southall Major Ealing 262 1,048 2,849 6,173 10,007 Acton District Ealing 103 338 920 1,696 2,449 Greenford District Ealing 49 201 635 1,499 2,523 Hanwell District Ealing 18 71 212 493 841 Residual Residual Ealing 320 1,171 3,575 7,716 12,428 Enfield Town Major Enfield 425 1,604 4,478 9,150 13,835

308

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Angel Edmonton District Enfield 30 117 402 890 1,442 Edmonton Green District Enfield 41 154 538 1,190 1,932 Palmers Green District Enfield 68 271 916 1,885 2,901 Southgate District Enfield 72 288 871 1,670 2,443 Residual Residual Enfield 744 2,711 7,691 15,922 24,600 Eltham Major Greenwich 319 1,272 3,716 7,649 11,807 Woolwich Major Greenwich 509 1,818 4,792 9,876 15,283 Greenwich West District Greenwich 159 558 1,393 2,424 3,337 Plumstead District Greenwich 15 61 191 484 845 Thamesmead District Greenwich 70 264 742 1,797 3,091 Residual Residual Greenwich 815 2,885 7,452 14,143 20,685 Dalston Major Hackney 330 1,062 2,977 5,951 9,102 Finsbury Park District Hackney 86 284 928 1,927 3,025 Mare Street District Hackney 176 568 1,530 2,998 4,556 Stoke Newington District Hackney 84 273 884 1,923 3,106 Residual Residual Hackney 256 833 2,346 4,646 6,967 Fulham Major Hammersmith and Fulham 130 419 991 1,792 2,526 Hammersmith Major Hammersmith and Fulham 299 1,073 2,969 5,545 8,037 Shepherds Bush District Hammersmith and Fulham 139 509 1,484 2,889 4,311 Residual Residual Hammersmith and Fulham 170 655 2,009 3,704 5,281 Wood Green Metropolitan Haringey 943 -175 10,219 11,289 21,319 Crouch End District Haringey 97 109 1,158 1,778 2,847 Green Lanes District Haringey 65 63 573 960 1,594 Muswell Hill District Haringey 96 130 1,257 1,811 2,777 Tottenham District Haringey 67 69 710 1,320 2,346

309

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 West Green Road District Haringey 42 42 450 795 1,349 Residual Residual Haringey 309 326 3,238 5,721 9,906 Harrow Metropolitan Harrow 782 2,766 8,511 17,218 26,217 North Harrow District Harrow 10 50 181 373 583 Pinner District Harrow 31 137 447 902 1,366 Rayners Lane District Harrow 21 110 391 855 1,368 South Harrow District Harrow 30 165 660 1,575 2,649 Stanmore District Harrow 38 138 395 778 1,155 Wealdstone District Harrow 74 299 915 1,777 2,612 Residual Residual Harrow 60 269 874 1,743 2,608 Romford Metropolitan Havering 1,819 6,226 6,411 18,280 32,291 Collier Row District Havering 65 218 444 1,012 1,634 Elm Park District Havering 3 19 71 190 335 Harold Hill District Havering 38 141 287 646 1,030 Hornchurch District Havering 127 488 1,074 2,432 3,880 Rainham District Havering 47 180 354 823 1,334 Upminster District Havering 185 705 1,406 3,092 4,821 Residual Residual Havering 570 2,036 4,005 8,810 13,759 Uxbridge Metropolitan Hillingdon 804 3,146 9,406 18,855 28,377 Eastcote District Hillingdon 20 133 512 1,143 1,835 Hayes District Hillingdon 135 547 1,594 3,345 5,233 Ickenham District Hillingdon 16 96 322 661 1,023 Northwood District Hillingdon 35 136 394 770 1,125 Ruislip District Hillingdon 65 353 1,188 2,503 3,897 Yiewsley/West Drayton District Hillingdon 69 284 843 1,650 2,465

310

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Residual Residual Hillingdon 609 2,624 7,753 16,032 24,749 Hounslow Metropolitan Hounslow 1,060 3,762 9,887 5,807 15,188 Chiswick Major Hounslow 320 1,140 3,095 3,814 6,474 Brentford District Hounslow 67 216 590 777 1,389 Feltham High Street District Hounslow 184 645 1,659 2,316 4,210 Residual Residual Hounslow 188 580 1,544 2,178 4,090 Angel Major Islington 621 2,041 5,585 10,727 15,720 Nags Head Major Islington 407 1,425 4,124 8,228 12,567 Archway District Islington 78 313 943 1,775 2,667 Residual Residual Islington 173 552 1,707 3,432 5,268 Kensington High Street Major Kensington and Chelsea 653 3,861 10,578 19,910 28,366 Kings Road East Major Kensington and Chelsea 3,193 10,354 22,922 41,270 57,840 Earls Court Road District Kensington and Chelsea 72 275 807 1,414 1,935 Fulham Road (east) District Kensington and Chelsea 415 1,429 3,452 6,271 8,826 Fulham Road (west) District Kensington and Chelsea 342 1,162 2,859 5,152 7,214 Kings Road (west) District Kensington and Chelsea 537 1,760 3,909 7,018 9,828 Notting Hill Gate District Kensington and Chelsea 386 1,242 2,757 4,989 6,962 Portobello Road District Kensington and Chelsea 557 1,923 4,774 9,075 13,147 South Kensington District Kensington and Chelsea 79 321 911 1,655 2,329 Residual Residual Kensington and Chelsea 604 2,165 5,602 10,512 15,158 Kingston Metropolitan Kingston upon Thames 2,665 10,343 27,326 52,207 18,807 New Malden District Kingston upon Thames 113 467 1,282 2,578 2,108 Surbiton District Kingston upon Thames 93 359 934 1,789 1,430 Tolworth District Kingston upon Thames 95 373 987 1,962 1,606 Residual Residual Kingston upon Thames 172 703 1,902 3,769 3,070

311

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Brixton Major Lambeth 336 1,194 3,333 6,603 10,030 Streatham Major Lambeth 215 735 2,125 4,267 6,514 Clapham High Street District Lambeth 99 385 1,149 2,252 3,364 Stockwell District Lambeth 32 133 414 819 1,244 Tulse Hill District Lambeth 9 41 152 299 473 West Norwood District Lambeth 16 72 239 464 716 Lower Marsh CAZ Frontage Lambeth 263 886 2,213 4,031 5,676 Residual Residual Lambeth 98 404 1,324 2,739 4,295 Catford Major Lewisham 108 391 1,189 2,452 2,186 Lewisham Major Lewisham 743 2,680 7,578 14,461 1,349 Blackheath District Lewisham 5 30 93 188 168 Deptford District Lewisham 132 472 1,219 2,053 1,558 Downham District Lewisham 10 40 142 394 426 Forest Hill District Lewisham 33 127 431 885 786 Lee Green District Lewisham 23 97 311 655 597 New Cross District Lewisham 152 549 1,467 2,570 2,017 Sydenham District Lewisham 40 166 624 1,386 1,295 Residual Residual Lewisham 187 692 2,072 4,324 3,900 Wimbledon Major Merton 509 2,073 6,120 12,045 17,991 Mitcham District Merton 42 164 564 1,256 2,037 Morden District Merton 44 187 623 1,359 2,177 Residual Residual Merton 234 975 3,091 6,301 9,636 East Ham Major Newham 780 2,581 6,923 13,648 20,610 Stratford Major Newham 6,946 23,197 53,315 94,930 134,319 Canning Town District Newham 467 1,369 2,995 5,203 7,250

312

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 East Beckton District Newham 347 1,070 2,749 5,536 8,417 Forest Gate District Newham 315 1,070 2,748 5,116 7,514 Upton Park District Newham 693 2,120 5,696 11,118 16,957 Residual Residual Newham 1,597 5,338 14,077 27,715 41,502 Ilford Metropolitan Redbridge 1,841 2,639 11,197 25,501 41,388 Barkingside District Redbridge 137 328 1,035 2,206 3,455 Gants Hill District Redbridge 89 211 675 1,425 2,228 South Woodford District Redbridge 123 303 966 1,919 2,943 Wanstead District Redbridge 61 156 472 893 1,313 Residual Residual Redbridge 418 975 3,176 6,749 10,595 Richmond Major Richmond upon Thames 569 2,062 5,496 10,579 15,525 East Sheen District Richmond upon Thames 124 445 1,284 2,504 3,718 Teddington District Richmond upon Thames 113 421 1,149 2,283 3,436 Twickenham District Richmond upon Thames 231 766 1,870 3,538 5,156 Whitton District Richmond Upon Thames 36 125 341 787 1,313 Residual Residual Richmond Upon Thames 383 1,368 3,726 7,544 11,517 Peckham Major Southwark 676 2,395 6,424 11,894 17,181 Camberwell District Southwark 146 539 1,536 2,977 4,486 Dulwich - Lordship Lane District Southwark 93 359 1,051 1,797 2,442 Elephant and Castle District Southwark 1,326 4,699 12,787 24,826 37,066 Surrey Quays District Southwark 853 2,824 6,710 11,664 15,931 Walworth Road District Southwark 550 2,002 5,484 10,683 16,131 Borough High Street CAZ Frontage Southwark 724 2,349 5,708 10,448 14,925 Residual Residual Southwark 851 2,986 7,815 14,649 21,310 Sutton Metropolitan Sutton 1,135 4,407 12,841 25,044 37,047

313

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Cheam District Sutton 48 189 537 1,009 1,446 North Cheam District Sutton 65 264 771 1,588 2,432 Rosehill District Sutton 17 68 229 498 801 Wallington District Sutton 56 221 671 1,367 2,064 Worcester Park District Sutton 70 295 853 1,765 2,705 Residual Residual Sutton 46 176 565 1,188 1,849 Canary Wharf Major Tower Hamlets 1,230 3,775 8,933 15,977 8,608 Bethnal Green District Tower Hamlets 229 692 1,565 2,805 3,282 Chrisp Street District Tower Hamlets 214 656 1,567 2,925 3,538 Crossharbour District Tower Hamlets 0 0 0 0 0 Poplar District Tower Hamlets 210 630 1,448 2,565 2,971 Roman Road (east) District Tower Hamlets 246 752 1,719 3,125 3,748 Watney Market District Tower Hamlets 381 1,195 2,922 5,443 6,509 Whitechapel District Tower Hamlets 179 555 1,307 2,391 2,809 Residual Residual Tower Hamlets 906 2,798 6,741 12,706 15,373 Walthamstow Major Waltham Forest 539 1,788 5,115 10,477 16,425 Bakers Arms District Waltham Forest 107 345 978 1,921 2,971 Leyton - High Road Leyton District Waltham Forest 51 164 422 773 1,152 Leytonstone District Waltham Forest 222 751 1,904 3,549 5,196 North Chingford District Waltham Forest 104 372 1,010 2,036 3,121 South Chingford District Waltham Forest 74 259 769 1,663 2,702 Wood Street District Waltham Forest 39 125 361 709 1,109 Residual Residual Waltham Forest 141 437 1,095 2,046 3,026 Clapham Junction Major Wandsworth 573 2,143 6,007 11,727 17,555 Putney Major Wandsworth 469 1,749 4,863 9,342 13,736

314

Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.2% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Tooting Major Wandsworth 422 1,656 4,996 10,070 15,261 Wandsworth Major Wandsworth 375 1,403 3,878 7,441 10,931 Balham District Wandsworth 84 337 1,056 2,026 2,949 Residual Residual Wandsworth 831 3,088 8,740 17,189 26,039 Knightsbridge International Westminster 1,295 5,445 19,680 42,377 65,664 West End International Westminster 4,804 15,712 85,619 208,459 344,423 Queensway/Westbourne Grove Major Westminster 220 783 2,913 6,211 9,611 Edgware Road/Church Street District Westminster 83 302 1,115 2,387 3,671 Harrow Road District Westminster 20 75 347 846 1,446 Praed Street/Paddington District Westminster 98 358 1,332 2,834 4,337 St John's Wood District Westminster 26 118 461 1,006 1,574 Edgware Road South CAZ Frontage Westminster 30 101 276 586 936 Marylebone High Street CAZ Frontage Westminster 145 546 2,186 4,745 7,397 Victoria Street CAZ Frontage Westminster 271 1,056 4,206 9,157 14,506 Warwick Way/Tachbrook St CAZ Frontage Westminster 62 246 984 2,217 3,619 Residual Residual Westminster 112 464 2,006 4,815 8,173

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Table 15: Net additional comparison goods floorspace requirements by town centre (2011 - 2031) using 2.8% growth Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Barking & Dagenham Major Barking and Dagenham 219 722 2,353 4,964 7,763 Chadwell Heath District Barking and Dagenham 22 66 269 615 1,018 Dagenham & Heathway District Barking and Dagenham 27 150 788 1,875 3,092 Residual Residual Barking and Dagenham 99 374 1,512 3,424 5,570 Edgware Major Barnet 147 792 2,272 4,629 7,049 Brent Street District Barnet 20 126 323 603 875 Burnt Oak District Barnet 61 307 881 1,850 2,908 Chipping Barnet District Barnet 82 462 1,386 2,794 4,149 Church End, Finchley District Barnet 34 242 739 1,408 2,070 Colindale/The Hyde District Barnet 139 498 923 1,787 2,779 East Finchley District Barnet 1 65 269 475 709 Golders Green District Barnet 39 273 698 1,255 1,771 Hendon central District Barnet 66 394 1,032 2,006 2,978 Mill Hill District Barnet 42 236 683 1,398 2,125 New Barnet District Barnet 28 178 579 1,211 1,867 North Finchley District Barnet 43 349 1,149 2,229 3,344 Temple Fortune District Barnet 49 344 943 1,755 2,535 Whetstone District Barnet 20 141 495 1,012 1,557 Residual Residual Barnet 302 3,928 12,796 26,785 42,053 Bexleyheath Major Bexley 237 1,288 4,455 9,321 14,336 Crayford District Bexley 58 242 726 1,418 2,087 Erith District Bexley 9 103 465 1,088 1,801 Sidcup District Bexley 11 139 661 1,430 2,286

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Welling District Bexley -10 186 1,053 2,517 4,186 Residual Residual Bexley 7 89 405 871 1,383 Kilburn Major Brent 190 704 1,983 3,886 5,814 Wembley Major Brent 66 236 710 1,586 2,614 Cricklewood District Brent 156 730 2,037 3,919 5,760 Ealing Road District Brent 7 23 122 330 605 Harlesden District Brent 37 151 540 1,168 1,935 Kenton District Brent -9 2 149 404 752 Kingsbury District Brent 41 149 481 1,104 1,876 Neasden District Brent -12 -43 32 317 713 Preston Road District Brent 10 31 119 289 516 Wembley Park District Brent 12 58 280 673 1,186 Willesden Green District Brent 23 115 370 692 1,017 Residual Residual Brent 249 1,162 3,880 8,277 13,066 Bromley Metropolitan Bromley 405 2,167 8,385 17,914 28,189 Orpington Major Bromley 26 332 1,628 3,939 6,553 Beckenham District Bromley -27 -17 338 839 1,507 Crystal Palace District Bromley -13 -18 116 318 597 Penge District Bromley -25 -21 294 752 1,347 Petts Wood District Bromley -34 -42 179 590 1,128 West Wickham District Bromley -49 -57 301 996 1,917 Residual Residual Bromley 60 486 2,188 5,139 8,494 Camden Town Major Camden 448 1,516 3,832 7,245 10,608 Hampstead District Camden 32 253 791 1,461 2,118 Kentish Town District Camden 11 120 568 1,234 2,009

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Swiss Cottage/Finchley Road District Camden 56 380 1,149 2,154 3,105 West Hampstead District Camden 16 111 315 529 700 Residual Residual Camden 364 1,236 3,199 5,991 8,627 Cheapside CAZ Frontage City of London 145 492 1,330 2,497 3,635 Fleet Street CAZ Frontage City of London 65 239 677 1,278 1,854 Leadenhall Market CAZ Frontage City of London 215 675 1,651 2,990 4,235 Liverpool Street CAZ Frontage City of London 330 1,108 3,102 5,950 8,839 Moorgate CAZ Frontage City of London 347 1,193 3,451 6,681 9,967 Residual Residual City of London 852 2,987 8,568 16,404 24,138 Croydon Metropolitan Croydon 577 2,497 11,067 20,062 635 Addiscombe District Croydon 2 10 140 275 220 Coulsdon District Croydon 34 149 470 795 542 Norbury District Croydon 5 26 369 868 747 Purley District Croydon 20 90 314 552 386 South Norwood District Croydon -5 -10 106 231 195 Thornton Heath District Croydon 20 39 336 721 596 Upper Norwood District Croydon -11 -14 141 308 264 Residual Residual Croydon 310 1,538 6,994 6,469 6,817 Ealing Metropolitan Ealing 138 694 2,623 5,340 8,462 Southall Major Ealing 70 444 1,535 3,727 6,471 Acton District Ealing 39 139 487 925 1,396 Greenford District Ealing -4 37 281 840 1,571 Hanwell District Ealing 3 23 108 297 551 Residual Residual Ealing 33 283 1,657 4,205 7,460 Enfield Town Major Enfield 125 663 2,427 5,389 8,564

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Angel Edmonton District Enfield -6 5 161 452 827 Edmonton Green District Enfield -7 5 217 603 1,109 Palmers Green District Enfield -13 23 379 920 1,573 Southgate District Enfield 5 80 418 863 1,343 Residual Residual Enfield 205 1,025 4,027 9,207 15,144 Eltham Major Greenwich 67 479 1,977 4,459 7,309 Woolwich Major Greenwich 220 906 2,793 6,163 9,970 Greenwich West District Greenwich 94 346 922 1,577 2,169 Plumstead District Greenwich -2 7 75 266 527 Thamesmead District Greenwich 12 82 350 1,055 1,999 Residual Residual Greenwich 422 1,631 4,682 9,063 13,537 Dalston Major Hackney 140 469 1,677 3,568 5,736 Finsbury Park District Hackney 17 70 455 1,061 1,807 Mare Street District Hackney 81 271 883 1,816 2,887 Stoke Newington District Hackney 18 70 432 1,088 1,915 Residual Residual Hackney 118 400 1,390 2,889 4,488 Fulham Major Hammersmith and Fulham 75 254 643 1,164 1,655 Hammersmith Major Hammersmith and Fulham 94 430 1,567 3,036 4,605 Shepherds Bush District Hammersmith and Fulham 33 173 745 1,557 2,473 Residual Residual Hammersmith and Fulham 24 191 982 1,879 2,816 Wood Green Metropolitan Haringey 181 4,038 5,084 3,031 9,063 Crouch End District Haringey 2 -75 513 686 1,340 Green Lanes District Haringey 23 -103 297 443 876 Muswell Hill District Haringey -2 -152 590 697 1,266 Tottenham District Haringey 10 -66 331 603 1,314

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 West Green Road District Haringey 6 -32 208 351 723 Residual Residual Haringey 59 -383 1,562 2,597 5,466 Harrow Metropolitan Harrow 264 648 3,935 8,977 14,837 North Harrow District Harrow -22 -2 62 162 293 Pinner District Harrow -23 19 188 437 730 Rayners Lane District Harrow -48 -3 140 400 737 South Harrow District Harrow -110 -34 204 738 1,470 Stanmore District Harrow 25 46 199 427 670 Wealdstone District Harrow -2 68 416 887 1,403 Residual Residual Harrow -43 39 369 840 1,379 Romford Metropolitan Havering 781 2,956 877 6,455 15,041 Collier Row District Havering 22 82 160 483 890 Elm Park District Havering -9 -16 12 67 156 Harold Hill District Havering 10 55 104 310 560 Hornchurch District Havering 12 131 356 1,087 1,999 Rainham District Havering 17 84 140 426 777 Upminster District Havering 58 303 533 1,509 2,634 Residual Residual Havering 206 893 1,523 4,308 7,535 Uxbridge Metropolitan Hillingdon 77 881 4,493 10,001 16,171 Eastcote District Hillingdon -29 -18 173 529 982 Hayes District Hillingdon 16 175 790 1,876 3,165 Ickenham District Hillingdon -12 9 128 314 545 Northwood District Hillingdon 6 46 199 418 644 Ruislip District Hillingdon -39 31 479 1,223 2,129 Yiewsley/West Drayton District Hillingdon 3 79 399 857 1,375

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Residual Residual Hillingdon 17 773 3,748 8,751 14,588 Hounslow Metropolitan Hounslow 406 1,707 5,425 220 5,073 Chiswick Major Hounslow 109 476 1,655 1,347 3,074 Brentford District Hounslow 25 86 308 280 687 Feltham High Street District Hounslow 77 308 928 906 2,230 Residual Residual Hounslow 82 247 823 829 2,145 Angel Major Islington 301 1,033 3,360 6,659 10,028 Nags Head Major Islington 130 557 2,225 4,767 7,710 Archway District Islington 8 94 467 926 1,499 Residual Residual Islington 48 169 868 1,909 3,141 Kensington High Street Major Kensington and Chelsea 92 1,950 6,347 12,216 17,732 Kings Road East Major Kensington and Chelsea 2,269 7,390 16,327 29,055 40,537 Earls Court Road District Kensington and Chelsea 17 95 414 723 1,012 Fulham Road (east) District Kensington and Chelsea 244 875 2,228 4,045 5,734 Fulham Road (west) District Kensington and Chelsea 193 678 1,794 3,226 4,560 Kings Road (west) District Kensington and Chelsea 377 1,247 2,770 4,914 6,853 Notting Hill Gate District Kensington and Chelsea 273 883 1,957 3,505 4,865 Portobello Road District Kensington and Chelsea 308 1,116 2,996 5,810 8,571 South Kensington District Kensington and Chelsea 21 129 490 906 1,314 Residual Residual Kensington and Chelsea 295 1,161 3,392 6,491 9,569 Kingston Metropolitan Kingston upon Thames 978 4,993 15,641 31,015 1,335 New Malden District Kingston upon Thames 28 199 699 1,513 618 Surbiton District Kingston upon Thames 38 185 552 1,092 429 Tolworth District Kingston upon Thames 35 182 568 1,193 485 Residual Residual Kingston upon Thames 50 320 1,064 2,239 908

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Brixton Major Lambeth 134 554 1,924 4,020 6,379 Streatham Major Lambeth 59 251 1,075 2,367 3,867 Clapham High Street District Lambeth 19 136 606 1,271 2,003 Stockwell District Lambeth 2 40 212 455 738 Tulse Hill District Lambeth -5 0 62 139 253 West Norwood District Lambeth -3 13 113 239 404 Lower Marsh CAZ Frontage Lambeth 169 570 1,497 2,712 3,824 Residual Residual Lambeth 7 121 702 1,601 2,680 Catford Major Lewisham 21 121 596 1,367 2,316 Lewisham Major Lewisham 254 1,143 4,214 8,383 12,972 Blackheath District Lewisham 0 15 58 124 201 Deptford District Lewisham 68 270 778 1,275 1,689 Downham District Lewisham -2 2 59 233 502 Forest Hill District Lewisham -1 20 195 456 787 Lee Green District Lewisham 1 27 157 371 646 New Cross District Lewisham 72 295 909 1,576 2,190 Sydenham District Lewisham -16 -9 239 684 1,288 Residual Residual Lewisham 49 257 1,115 2,556 4,335 Wimbledon Major Merton -66 655 3,036 6,491 10,336 Mitcham District Merton 14 4 223 634 1,165 Morden District Merton 15 19 261 702 1,255 Residual Residual Merton 31 187 1,387 3,235 5,405 East Ham Major Newham 399 1,369 4,262 8,733 13,607 Stratford Major Newham 4,434 15,068 35,335 62,283 88,791 Canning Town District Newham 378 1,071 2,288 3,870 5,321

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 East Beckton District Newham 228 687 1,880 3,868 5,963 Forest Gate District Newham 160 574 1,669 3,164 4,787 Upton Park District Newham 367 1,085 3,434 6,974 11,058 Residual Residual Newham 887 3,063 9,028 18,303 28,023 Ilford Metropolitan Redbridge 867 260 4,780 13,365 24,126 Barkingside District Redbridge 59 89 508 1,232 2,082 Gants Hill District Redbridge 36 54 322 775 1,316 South Woodford District Redbridge 48 78 462 1,012 1,681 Wanstead District Redbridge 28 46 238 479 746 Residual Residual Redbridge 171 246 1,523 3,701 6,300 Richmond Major Richmond upon Thames 208 929 3,031 6,119 9,355 East Sheen District Richmond upon Thames 28 146 637 1,343 2,122 Teddington District Richmond upon Thames 36 179 623 1,325 2,100 Twickenham District Richmond upon Thames 130 441 1,155 2,230 3,324 Whitton District Richmond Upon Thames 12 48 176 476 859 Residual Residual Richmond Upon Thames 127 568 1,988 4,370 7,065 Peckham Major Southwark 351 1,353 4,086 7,621 11,193 Camberwell District Southwark 63 275 940 1,879 2,925 Dulwich - Lordship Lane District Southwark 35 173 631 1,053 1,437 Elephant and Castle District Southwark 645 2,524 7,920 15,824 24,288 Surrey Quays District Southwark 586 1,952 4,764 8,126 11,001 Walworth Road District Southwark 271 1,105 3,469 6,939 10,769 Borough High Street CAZ Frontage Southwark 472 1,540 3,907 7,130 10,232 Residual Residual Southwark 481 1,793 5,138 9,710 14,317 Sutton Metropolitan Sutton 207 1,510 6,543 13,704 21,440

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Cheam District Sutton 12 75 287 562 837 North Cheam District Sutton 9 91 395 901 1,470 Rosehill District Sutton -3 6 95 256 461 Wallington District Sutton 4 60 322 737 1,191 Worcester Park District Sutton 9 105 438 1,005 1,642 Residual Residual Sutton -1 28 244 608 1,044 Canary Wharf Major Tower Hamlets 867 2,590 6,269 11,070 2,636 Bethnal Green District Tower Hamlets 141 423 1,048 1,963 2,184 Chrisp Street District Tower Hamlets 169 495 1,123 1,986 2,104 Crossharbour District Tower Hamlets 0 0 0 0 0 Poplar District Tower Hamlets 159 465 1,072 1,864 1,946 Roman Road (east) District Tower Hamlets 171 509 1,179 2,129 2,339 Watney Market District Tower Hamlets 255 789 2,008 3,743 4,089 Whitechapel District Tower Hamlets 127 386 927 1,681 1,792 Residual Residual Tower Hamlets 621 1,873 4,661 8,816 9,761 Walthamstow Major Waltham Forest 170 641 2,605 5,894 9,964 Bakers Arms District Waltham Forest 34 118 484 1,030 1,728 Leyton - High Road Leyton District Waltham Forest 22 72 223 420 665 Leytonstone District Waltham Forest 105 380 1,105 2,112 3,203 North Chingford District Waltham Forest 39 167 562 1,216 1,964 South Chingford District Waltham Forest 14 74 363 916 1,639 Wood Street District Waltham Forest 10 37 170 365 630 Residual Residual Waltham Forest 78 240 671 1,277 1,947 Clapham Junction Major Wandsworth 172 883 3,255 6,741 10,618 Putney Major Wandsworth 142 719 2,617 5,291 8,145

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Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (m²) Centre Name Category Borough 2.8% Productivity Growth 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Tooting Major Wandsworth 35 461 2,414 5,407 8,810 Wandsworth Major Wandsworth 119 596 2,116 4,260 6,535 Balham District Wandsworth 0 78 498 1,031 1,596 Residual Residual Wandsworth 239 1,227 4,678 9,826 15,767 Knightsbridge International Westminster 232 1,383 9,771 23,716 39,245 West End International Westminster 331 1,055 34,614 105,954 195,358 Queensway/Westbourne Grove Major Westminster 41 181 1,377 3,318 5,524 Edgware Road/Church Street District Westminster 16 71 532 1,288 2,123 Harrow Road District Westminster 0 7 129 407 800 Praed Street/Paddington District Westminster 19 85 642 1,539 2,515 St John's Wood District Westminster 2 23 204 514 877 Edgware Road South CAZ Frontage Westminster 9 35 164 383 640 Marylebone High Street CAZ Frontage Westminster 21 109 987 2,464 4,165 Victoria Street CAZ Frontage Westminster 38 219 1,935 4,833 8,330 Warwick Way/Tachbrook St CAZ Frontage Westminster 9 54 469 1,222 2,175 Residual Residual Westminster 8 73 849 2,508 4,770

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APPENDIX 13 - MAPS OF CATCHMENT AREAS BASED ON 'BASE' (2008) AND 'TIMELINE' (2018) SCENARIOS

Catchment Area Overview

A13.1 A database of shopper flow patterns consists of a list of geographic bricks (in this case, postal sectors) and a likelihood to travel to each of the competing shopping centres from that brick. For a given retail centre, the catchment area is usually represented by selecting those geographic bricks whose population is most likely to shop at that centre. For the purposes of this project a '50% catchment' refers to the area comprising the set of postal sectors whose flows to a given centre are greatest, such that that area represents 50% of the total shoppers at that centre. Catchments are shown for illustrative purposes only – shopper flows come from outside as well as inside catchment areas and a change in relative attractiveness will affect centre spend by altering penetrations both within and outside of catchments.

A13.2 The following definitions are used for the maps in this appendix: • Primary, 50% catchment • Secondary, 80% catchment • Tertiary, 90% catchment

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Brent Cross 2008 Catchment Area

Brent Cross 2018 Catchment Area

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Battersea 2018 Catchment Area

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Bromley 2008 Catchment Area

Bromley 2018 Catchment Area

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Croydon 2008 Catchment Area

Croydon 2018 Catchment Area

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Elephant & Castle 2008 Catchment Area

Elephant & Castle 2018 Catchment Area

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Ealing Broadway 2008 Catchment Area

Ealing Broadway 2018 Catchment Area

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Harrow 2008 Catchment Area

Harrow 2018 Catchment Area

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Hounslow 2008 Catchment Area

Hounslow 2018 Catchment Area

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Ilford 2008 Catchment Area

Ilford 2018 Catchment Area

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Kingston 2008 Catchment Area

Kingston 2018 Catchment Area

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Knightsbridge 2008 Catchment Area

Knightsbridge 2018 Catchment Area

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London West End 2008 Catchment Area

London West End 2018 Catchment Area

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Romford 2008 Catchment Area

Romford 2018 Catchment Area

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Stratford 2008 Catchment Area

Stratford 2018 Catchment Area

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Sutton 2008 Catchment Area

Sutton 2018 Catchment Area

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Uxbridge 2008 Catchment Area

Uxbridge 2018 Catchment Area

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White City 2018 Catchment Area

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Wood Green 2008 Catchment Area

Wood Green 2018 Catchment Area

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APPENDIX 14 - DERIVATION OF COMPARISON GOODS SALES DENSITY GROWTH

Measuring Sales Densities

A14.1 Sales density is typically measured as either: • Sales relative to the total floorspace (gross) – as used in official statistics and planning requirements. This is sales relative to the actual area covered by the buildings. • Sales relative to the net sales area (shopping space) only, as quoted by retailers. This excludes storage space, offices and toilets, but includes display areas.

A14.2 An investigation of trends in sales densities is hampered by a lack of quantitative information. Estimation of sale density requires a space measure. At present, UK retail floorspace estimates are derived from two sources: • The Valuation Office Agency (VOA), which is part of HM Customs and Revenues and publishes a measure of retail space close to the property industry’s gross definition. • Larger retailers provide net density estimates, although definitions are not standardised.

A14.3 The VOA data is potentially most valuable, although it has limitations: • These figures are defined as net space, but exclude only non- useable areas – such as staircases, but not storage – and so are actually closer to a total or gross floorspace. • VOA totals vary between an all-retail and A1 space definition, depending on the year. Neither is precise and there are large jumps in the data, notably in 1998 and 2005. • The data only covers England and Wales. • There is no breakdown into comparison and convenience stores, or between comparison and convenience goods space.

A14.4 VOA numbers only indicate gross retail space (i.e. the total space occupied by the buildings), with no details on the split for different goods, or of how net capacity has changed. To provide a fuller breakdown, a combination of industry benchmarks and consultation was used to split the total into convenience and comparison, into in-town and out-of-town and to identify net, or actual shopping space, as well as the total space occupied by the buildings.

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A14.5 Experian’s new methodology uses expert estimates to inform a view on the key unknowns: • Gross floorspace split in-town, out-of-town, modern, old, convenience and comparison • Net-to-gross ratios • Proportions of convenience store space used for selling comparison goods • Detailed sales densities in 2006 and growth rates between the benchmark years

A14.6 These estimates are combined to estimate figures that can be compared with official data. For example, does net comparison floorspace multiplied by its sales density, summed across all types of comparison space (including space in convenience stores) give total in-store comparison goods sales? Afterwards, if there is any mismatch, this process is repeated until estimates are within £½ million of the figures.

A14.7 The results are not data in the strict sense, but an educated guess consistent with the available evidence. There is little alternative to the iterative process used for the final figures and, given the uncertainty, some experts may reasonably question the estimates. But they provide the most satisfactory combination of the official data and expert opinion available.

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Floorspace, sales and sales density growth Average Annual Growth in England & Wales

A14.8 Comparison goods sales densities have shown exceptional growth in the recent past. Comparison goods sales space increased at an average annual rate of 3.0 per cent between 2000 and 2005 (including for comparison goods sales in convenience stores). But sales volumes rose at an annual rate of almost 7 per cent over the same period, implying that net sales density has risen by 3.6 per cent a year to accommodate this (after rounding). This average was actually dragged down by an increase in the share of floor space taken by, lower density, out-of-town stores. Allowing for this the underlying growth rates were actually 3.9 per cent per annum. Retailers are therefore using new and existing space more efficiently to make more sales. For the earlier period, 1987-1999, both the underlying and actual growth rates were 2.5 per cent per annum.

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A14.9 Convenience goods sales density growth has been considerably slower than comparison. In the case of convenience goods, however, the change in the space mix towards larger more efficient stores has pushed up the observed total increase relative to the underlying. Between 2000 and 2005 the overall increase in sales densities for convenience goods was 1.6 per cent per annum but the underlying growth rate was 1.2 per cent, the difference being accounted for by a move towards newer higher density stores. The equivalent figures for 1987-1999 were 1.2 and 0.9 per cent for actual and underlying respectively.

A14.10 Net floorspace has consistently grown faster than gross since the 1980s, implying an increasing proportion of floorspace has been converted to selling, and that space for storage and back-of-house activities has been reduced.

A14.11 The growth in comparison space has greatly exceeded that for convenience, which has been static or, more recently, contracting. This is partly because convenience stores such as supermarkets have expanded comparison goods lines, like clothes, electrical goods or DVDs. This trend is expected to continue, with Tesco aiming to reach an even balance between food and non-food in its larger stores in the next few years.

A14.12 Comparison goods sales densities have increased at a far faster rate than convenience goods, partly due to technological advances leading to smaller, highervalue products, for example the difference in size between a flat-screen and a traditional television.

A14.13 On balance, the early 2000s was an unusually rapid phase of sales growth, reflected in big increases in densities. Part of this rise is likely to be cyclical and thus not sustainable. So it is important to also examine the 1987-99 figures in establishing a benchmark.

Influence of longer opening hours

A14.14 The introduction of Sunday shopping significantly lengthened opening hours in the 1990s, with profound implications for the trend in sales densities. Unfortunately, there are no statistics on Sunday business, or, more importantly, on how the extension affected sales in the rest of the week. But related evidence points to a major shift in

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consumer behaviour. Footfall figures on visits to retail centres, for instance, show that shopping patterns have changed markedly, with on average, around 8 per cent of weekly activity now taking place on a Sunday (Figure 50).

A14.15 When Sunday trading was first introduced it is likely that total retail spending remained largely unaffected and was spread over more days, with little impact on sales or densities. Over time, however – as Sunday trading effectively increased retail capacity at a stroke – it enables more sales to be made from the existing floorspace. As such, it allows new sales growth without the corresponding requirement for new retail space.

A14.16 A store opening for 16 hours for example, could potentially realise twice the sales density of one open for eight hours. In practice this would require a considerable change in consumer behaviour, not least the desire to shop first thing in the morning or last thing at night. Along the same lines, the impact of an extra day’s trading is less, but still implies the potential for an increase in sales densities over time.

But how much of the change in sales density does this explain? We can adjust our previous estimates to account for Sunday trading. Assuming that all of the impact occurred between 1986 and 1999 and that daily sales are proportional to footfall, longer opening would have accounted for 0.7 per cent of the annual increase in sales densities over this period.

Figure 50 Average footfall by day of the week

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Influence of 24 hour shopping

A14.17 Sunday trading is now a normal part of the UK retail environment, but 24-hour shopping’s potential remains disputed: it could have a similar impact on potential sales densities as Sunday trading. At one extreme, it can be argued that the move to all-day shopping alone could cause any future growth in retail sales to be absorbed in higher densities and remove the need for more retail space in future.

But the evidence is not strong. Although there is 24-hour opening in some supermarkets, this is usually seen at out-of-town convenience stores, or at times of heavy demand such as Christmas, or in urban centres where footfall is particularly heavy. This has often been possible because the stores are staffed anyway, with the need for over-night restocking, rather than a result of demand from shoppers. Few other retailers have followed the supermarkets. Current lifestyles and habits do not suggest a wholesale move to 24 hour shopping. This may change in the future, but it is too early to make strong assumptions in our forecasts.

The future for retail sales densities

A14.18 The rapid increase in comparison goods sales densities in the recent past was a product of the retail spending boom and is unlikely to be sustainable. On balance the 1987-99 trend of 2.5 per cent a year increases in sales density may be a better start point for projections.

Yet even this includes one-off changes because of the advent of Sunday trading. As noted, the introduction of Sunday trading could have accounted for up to 0.7 per cent a year of the estimated increase in sales densities in this period. On the other hand, not all Sunday trading effects occurred between 1986-99 and there is still scope for further changes were the current restrictions on hours to be relaxed.

Consequently, projected sales densities are only reduced from the 1987 and 1999 by 0.3 per cent a year in the central case, to 2.2 per cent and 0.6 per cent a year for comparison and convenience space respectively. The move towards more modern, higher density, stores and the demolition of older inefficient space means that the observed comparison rate is likely to be closer to 2.4 per cent a year.

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The combination of unsatisfactory data and uncertainty about underlying trends mean that risk analysis is particularly important. Much slower density increases than in the central forecast imply there is higher demand for capacity. One possible cause is that the impact of longer opening hours has been overstated; another that the gains from technological change and efficiency are exhausted. As a result, increased sales growth can only be met by new retail.

In this alternative view, it is assumed that comparison goods sales densities grow at only 1.5 per cent a year (or 0.25 per cent a year for convenience goods). This was the benchmark figure for retail planning studies until recently and is significantly slower than historical trends. On the other hand, the more recent growth rates (2000-2005) were much higher than for the 1987-99 growth rates that we have used to create the central case. This means that there must be a significant upside and we suggest that a realistic upside would be 2.8 and 0.8 per cent for comparison and convenience goods sales densities respectively.

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APPENDIX 15 - SUMMARY OF DATA SOURCES USED

List of key data sources

A15.1 Where more than one version of a dataset was used, all versions are listed. The majority of the model build took place in January/February 2008. Data obtained since then has primarily been used to sense-check results rather than as inputs within the model:

16. List of retail centres from London Plan.

17. Shopper Flow Model January 2008 (9605 postal sector geography).

18. Estimates of consumer expenditure (based on Experian Business

19. Strategies’ Retail Planner, revised for project).

20. Retail Locations database, January 2008.

21. Goad retail database, January 2008 (and monthly updates since).

22. Experian list of neighbourhood centres, 2008.

23. Where Britain Shops January 2008.

24. Retail Centre Ranking September 2007.

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APPENDIX 16 - BACKGROUND TO EXPERIAN

Experian Business Strategies

A16.1 Experian is a global leader in providing analytical and information services to organisations and consumers to help manage the risk and reward of commercial and financial decisions. Combining its unique information tools and deep understanding of individuals, markets and economies, Experian partners with organisations around the world to establish and strengthen customer relationships and provide their businesses with competitive advantage.

A16.2 For consumers, Experian delivers critical information that enables them to make financial and purchasing decisions with greater control and confidence. Clients include organisations from financial services, retail and catalogue, telecommunications, utilities, media, insurance, automotive, leisure, e-commerce, manufacturing, property and government sectors.

A16.3 Experian Group Limited is listed on the London Stock Exchange (EXPN) and is a constituent of the FTSE-100 index. Experian employs more than 12,500 people in 32 countries worldwide, supporting clients in more than 60 countries. Annual sales are in excess of £1.7 billion.

A16.4 For more information, please visit the company's website at www.experian.com.

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