INPRO Dialogue Forum on the Potential of Nuclear Energy to Support the Sustainable Development Goals, Including Climate Change Mitigation

6 – 8 June 2017 VIC, Vienna, Austria

ACHIEVING THE GOALS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT BY CONSIDERATION OF NUCLEAR OPTIONS IN ENERGY SYSTEM EXPANSION PLANS ARMENIAN CASE

Vahan Sargsyan Energy Strategy Center of Scientific Research Institute of Energy Ministry of Energy Infrastructures and Natural Resources Armenia

IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency Country Overview

2 Regional Location

3 Country Overview

Territory – 29.8 thousand km2 ~40 % – 2 500 m above the sea level

Population – 3.0046 million inhabitants ~ 63.6% – urban, including 1.07 million peoples in Yerevan

4 Country Overview

Main macroeconomic indicators (2015 / 2014)

GDP, million $ 10 530/ 10 893 GDP per capita, $ 3 505/ 3 611 GDP growth, % 3.0 / 5.9 Unemployment rate, % 18.5 / 17.6

5 Energy System Overview

6 Main TPES Indicators (as of 31.12.2015)

1000 ktoe Production 0.43 Energy import 2.93 Energy export -0.12 Total Primary Energy Supply 3.24 TPES per capita (toe/cap.) 1.08

7 Armenian Power System: Main Indicators (as of 31.12.2015)

Total installed/available capacities, MW 3 152/2695

Nuclear 14% Armenian NPP (VVER-440) 440 / 385 Thermal (Gas fired) 38% Hrazdan TPP 810 / 370 Hrazdan unit 5 480 /440 Yerevan CCPP 242 /220 Hydro 36% Sevan-Hrazdan Cascade of HPPs 561 / 561 Vorotan cascade of HPPs 404 / 404 Rnewables 12% Small HPPs (<30 MW) 312 / 312 Wind Farm 2.6 / 2.6

8 Armenian Power System: Main Indicators (as of 31.12.2015)

Shares of electricity production

Nuclear, Natural Gas, 2787.7, 2254.5, 31% 38% Total generation mix

Wind, Small HPP, 836.5, 12% Hydro, 1369.3, 19%

Nuclear, Natural Gas, 2787.7, 48% 830.5, 14% Generation for domestic use

Wind, Small HPP, Hydro, 1369.3, 836.5, 14% 24% 9 Armenian Power System: Main Indicators (as of 31.12.2015)

2014 Small HPPs and Wind 2012 Armenian NPP 2010 2008 Yerevan CHP 2006 Yerevan CCHP 2004 Hrazdan TPP 2002 Hrazdan 5 2000 Sevan-Hrazdan Cascade of HPPs 1998 Vorotan Cascade of HPPs 1996 1988 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 bln. kWh

10 RA Government

USAID/LEDS/Tetra Tech, USAID/SRIE

“Long-term (up to 2036) Development

Pathways of Armenian Energy System” Objectives

• Preparation of least-cost energy development program till 2036, considering the following: . Ensuring reasonable level of energy security and independence of the country . Reliable supply of energy carriers to the local market consumers at the lowest price possible . Realization of energy efficiency and renewable energy potential . Expansion of regional cooperation – Generation and consumption technologies available in the market – Infrastructural and technological restrictions • Sensitivity analysis Macroeconomic data

Macroeconomic indicators

Annual growth 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Source

GDP 5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% World Bank

Population 0.175% 0.024% 0.024% -0.215% -0.215% -0.215% -0.275% -0.275% GoA

Useful energy demand growth for whole planning period PJ 100.00 • 90.00 Residential 203% (3.0%) 80.00 • Commercial 201% (2.9%) 70.00 Agriculture • Industry 245% (3.8%) 60.00 Industry 50.00 Commercial • Agriculture 173% (2.3%) 40.00 Residential • Transport 30.00 20.00 Passenger161% (2.0%) 10.00 Freight 254% (4.0%) 0.00 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Change in Household conditions during planning period (24 years) • Number of persons per dwelling -14% (3.76 –> 3.24) • Number of dwellings +12% Technical/Technological Data

Iran – Armenia Electricity - gas swap Swap levels 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Electricity export (GWh) 1,200 6,000 6,900 6,900 6,900 6,900 6,900 6,900 Natural gas import (mln. cm) 405 2,000 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300

• European gas prices are Natural Gas Import Prices, $/1000 cub.m based on World energy 600 495 508 471 481 outlook 2013 500 460

400 355 324 335 • Russian gas price stated 297 315 274 according to Russian- 300 243 European 189 189 189 Russian Armenian Intergovernmental 200 Agreement, which assumes 65% Russian wholesale gas 100 price, and 35% CPI-U 0 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Capacities of gas pipelines of RA

Gas pipeline Daily maximum capacity, mln. cm Annual maximum capacity, bln. cm North-South pipeline 10 3.65 Iran-Armenia pipeline 8 2.30 Total 18 5.95 Domestic Energy Sources: Renewables only

TOTAL New: 714 MW, ~2480 million kWh/year  Solar PV: 40 MW, 58 million kWh/year up to 2020 30 MW, 48 million kWh up to 2038  Wind Farms: 150 MW, 395 million kWh up to 2027 50 MW, 85 million kWh up to 2040  Geothermal PP: 30 MW, 194 million kWh in 2021  Small HPPs: 148 MW, 495 million kWh up to 2021  Shnokh HPP: 70 MW, 270 million kWh in 2021  Loriberd HPP: 66 MW, 212 million kWh in 2021  Meghri HPP: 130 MW, 720 million kWh in 2032

15 Technical/Technological Data

Hydro technologies Meghri Loriberd Shnokh Indicator Small HPPs HPP HPP HPP Capacity, MW 130 66 70 148 Efficiency 0.88 0.88 0.875 0.9

Specific investment cost, €/kW 0 1,620 1,810 910 (1,137 after 2021)

18.87 (23.59 after Specific fixed cost, €/kW/year 28.32 12.52 15.03 2021) Variable cost, €/MWh 0.57 0.433 0.433 0.2 Construction period, years 5 4 4 2

Annual maximum generation, 800 212 270 527 GWh/year

Investment, Million € 0 106.9 126.7 134.7 - 168.2 Technical/Technological Data

Alternative technologies Indicator Geothermal Solar PV Wind

Maximum capacity, MW 30 up to 70 up to 200

2,037 1,960 Specific investment cost per kW, €/kW 2,335 [1,000] [1,400]

Specific fixed cost per kW, €/kW/year 194 29 40

Variable O&M cost, €/MWh 1.2 0 0

Annual maximum generation, GWh/year 194 145 527

Investment, Million € 70.1 153.6 392 Technical/Technological Data

Nuclear technologies

Indicator PWR-1000 CANDU-6 SMR ANPP life extension

Investment, Million € 4,073.19 1,622.21 1,633.20 227.38

Efficiency 0.342 0.332 0.340 0.300

Fixed O&M cost, Million €/year 54.70 38.46 24.83 25.44

Fresh fuel cost, €/MWh 5.23 2.21 5.88 8.97

Spent fuel cost, €/MWh 1.34 4.05 0.78 0.52

Variable O&M cost, €/MWh 0.51 0.55 0.66 0.43

Total variable O&M cost, €/MWh 1.85 4.60 1.44 0.94

Unit capacity, MW 1028 670 360 385

Specific investment cost per kW, €/kW 3,962.24 2,421.21 4,536.68 590.59

Specific fixed cost per kW, €/kW/year 53.21 57.41 68.97 66.08 Annual maximum generation, GWh/year 8,105 5,282 2,838 2,277

Construction period, years 6 6 4 1 Technical/Technological Data

Thermal technologies

Indicator Natural gas CCGT

Unit capacity, MW 220/400 Efficiency 0.49 Specific investment cost per kW, €/kW 780

Specific fixed cost per kW, €/kW/year 30

Variable O&M cost, €/MWh 1.53

Annual maximum generation, GWh/year 1,760/3,200 Investment, Million € 171.6/312 Scenario Options

20 Scenario Results

21 Nuclear Scenarios Analysis

35,500 35,179

35,000 34,734

34,500 34,229

34,000

2012MEuro 33,666

33,500

33,000

32,500 Reference No ANPP No New No New life NPP NPP and no extension ANPP life extension

22 Total Energy System Cost

23 Electricity Generation Cost

24 Level of Energy Independence by Scenarios

25 Level of Energy Independence by Scenarios

Goal 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern 02 September 2016 energy for all 26 Thank you

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