GTMax Training Course for Georgian State Electric System (GSE)
14-18 March 2011 Tbilisi, Georgia
Thomas Veselka, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Vahan Sargsyan, Armenian Scientific Research Institute of Energy (SRIE).
Lecture 11: Overview of GTMax Application in Armenia CONTENT
. Country Overview . USAID Project Purposes & Objectives . Armenian Power System in 2008, 2015 & 2020 . Modeling of Armenian Power System in GTMax . Summary of Model Results . Future uses/applications Armenia: country overview Armenia: country overview
Territory – 29.8 thousand km2 40 % – 2 500 m above the sea level
Population – 3.25 million inhabitants 64% – urban, including 1.1 million peoples in Yerevan Armenia: country overview
Main economic indicators (2009/2008)
GDP, million € 6 239/8 108
GDP per capita, € 1 919/2 504
GDP growth, % -14.4/6.8
Unemployment rate,% 6.9/6.3 USAID Project
“Assistance to Energy Sector to Strengthen Energy Security and Regional Integration” USAID Project’s Main Objectives
. Improve the Enabling Environment for Development of Renewable Energy in Armenia
. Support Armenia’s Integration into Regional Energy Systems and ability to trade with Region for Security, Supply and Power Export Consideration USAID Project’s Specific Objectives
. Support in Development of Renewable Energy Strategy
. Assistance in Facilitation of Regional Electricity System Synchronization and Trade & Market Development USAID Project’s Main Tasks
. Development of Armenia Power System national economic Simulation Models using GTMax Software . Conduct Economic Evaluation of Renewable Impacts on Operational Costs of Armenia Power System . Development of Regional Economic Simulation Models of Armenia and Georgia Power Systems USAID Project’s Main Tasks
. Economic simulation of the Regional (Armenia-Georgia) market . Analysis of adequacy of the proposed transmission investment project . Provide assistance on utilizing and deepening knowledge of GTMax software Armenian entities . Transfer of Armenia and Georgia power system models to System Operator and Transmission Company for their future utilization Armenian Power System in 2008 (Base Year) Power System. Main Indicators
Installed capacities (MW) Armenian NPP 407 Hrazdan TPP 1110 Yerevan CHP 550 Sevan-Hrazdan Cascade of HPPs 550 Vorotan cascade of HPPs 400 Small HPPs (<10 MW) 92 Wind Power Plant 2.6 Power System. Main Indicators
Electricity generation and consumption
3 215 MW – total installed capacity 6 114 mln. kWh – annual production 4 730 mln. kWh – final consumption 485 mln. kWh – export 343 mln. kWh – import 1 327 MW – peak demand
950 000 – consumers Power System. Main Indicators
Shares of Installed Capacities
NPP 13% TPP 51% HPP Shares of Electricity 33% Production Wind, Small HPP NPP 3% 40%
TPP HPP 30% 26% Wind, Small HPP 4% Power System. Main Indicators
2008 Small HPPs and 2006 Wind
Armenian NPP 2004
2002 Yerevan CHP
2000 Hrazdan TPP
1998 Sevan-Hrazdan Cascade of HPPs 1996 V orot an Cascade of 1988 HPPs
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 m ln. kWh Interconnections
Gyumri Vanadzor
Lake Sevan
Power System Structure Customers Electricity Tariffs
1 USc ≈ 3.80 AMD Tariff, Voltage, Connection type AMD (USc)/kWh Night-time Daytime 35 kV and higher 17 (4.47) 21 (5.53) 6 (10) kV direct connection 17 (4.47) 25 (6.58) 6 (10) kV non-direct connection 17 (4.47) 30 (7.89) 0.38 kV 20 (5.26) 30 (7.89) Electricity Generation Tariffs Main Power Plants (without VAT – 20%) 1 USc ≈ 3.80 AMD
Power Plant Measurement Unit Tariff Armenian NPP: Power Tariff AMD(US$)/kW 2352.6(6.19) Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 4.4136(1.16) Hrazdan TPP: Power Tariff AMD(US$)/kW 494.35(1.30) Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 27.049(7.12) Yerevan TPP: Power Tariff AMD(US$)/kW 580.82(1.52) Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 26.222(6.90) Electricity Generation Tariffs Main Power Plants (without VAT – 20%) 1 USc ≈ 3.80 AMD
Power Plant Measurement Unit Tariff Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade: Power Tariff AMD(US$)/kW 717.45(1.88) Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 1.164(0.306) Vorotan HPP Cascade: Power Tariff AMD(US$)/kW 197.73(0.52) Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 0.180(0.047) Electricity Generation Tariffs Renewables (without VAT – 20%) 1 USc ≈ 3.80 AMD Power Plant Measurement Unit Tariff Small HPPs: Build on drinking water AMD(USc)/kWh 10.284(2.71) pipeline Build on irrigation system AMD(USc)/kWh 15.424(4.06) Build on natural water flow AMD(USc)/kWh 23.136(6.09) Wind Power Plant AMD(USc)/kWh 37.61(9.897) Armenian Power System in 2015 Power System. Main Indicators. 2015
Installed capacities (MW) Armenian NPP 407 Hrazdan TPP 1110 Hrazdan Unit 5 445 Yerevan CCHP 242 Sevan-Hrazdan Cascade of HPPs 550 Vorotan cascade of HPPs 400 Small HPPs (<10 MW) 117 Wind Power Plants 38.6 Electricity Generation Tariffs. 2015 Main Power Plants (without VAT – 20%) 1 USc ≈ 3.80 AMD
Power Plant Measurement Unit Tariff Armenian NPP: Power Tariff AMD(US$)/kW 3108.4(8.18) Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 4.604(1.21) Hrazdan TPP: Power Tariff AMD(US$)/kW 512.7(1.35) Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 32.59(8.58) Yerevan CCHP: Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 14.32(3.77) Hrazdan Unit 5: Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 16.91(4.45) Electricity Generation Tariffs. 2015 Main Power Plants (without VAT – 20%) 1 USc ≈ 3.80 AMD
Power Plant Measurement Unit Tariff Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade: Power Tariff AMD(US$)/kW 502.7(1.32) Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 1.174(0.31) Vorotan HPP Cascade: Power Tariff AMD(US$)/kW 214.57(0.56) Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 1.154(0.30) Electricity Generation Tariffs. 2015 Renewables (without VAT – 20%) 1 USc ≈ 3.80 AMD Power Plant Measurement Unit Tariff Small HPPs: Build on drinking water AMD(USc)/kWh 10.284(2.71) pipeline Build on irrigation system AMD(USc)/kWh 15.424(4.06) Build on natural water flow AMD(USc)/kWh 23.136(6.09) Wind Power Plant AMD(USc)/kWh 42.902(11.29) New Small HPPs: AMD(USc)/kWh 19.0(5.0) Armenian Power System in 2020 Power System. Main Indicators. 2020 Installed capacities (MW) New NPP 1000 Hrazdan TPP 1110 Hrazdan Unit 5 445 Yerevan CCHP 235 Sevan-Hrazdan Cascade of HPPs 550 Vorotan cascade of HPPs 400 HPPs (>10 MW) 110 Small HPPs (<10 MW) 142 Wind Power Plants 282.6 Electricity Generation Tariffs. 2020 Main Power Plants (without VAT – 20%) 1 USc ≈ 3.80 AMD
Power Plant Measurement Unit Tariff
New NPP: Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 38.0(10.0) Hrazdan TPP: Power Tariff AMD(US$)/kW 512.7(1.35) Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 32.59(8.58) Yerevan CCHP: Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 13.94(3.67) Hrazdan Unit 5: Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 16.34(4.3) Electricity Generation Tariffs. 2020 Main Power Plants (without VAT – 20%) 1 USc ≈ 3.80 AMD
Power Plant Measurement Unit Tariff Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade: Power Tariff AMD(US$)/kW 412.92(1.10) Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 0.978(0.26) Vorotan HPP Cascade: Power Tariff AMD(US$)/kW 178.81(0.47) Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 0.962(0.25) Shnokh HPP: Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 36.1(9.50) Loriberd HPP: Electricity Tariff AMD(USc)/kWh 32.3(8.50) Electricity Generation Tariffs. 2020 Renewables (without VAT – 20%) 1 USc ≈ 3.80 AMD
Power Plant Measurement Unit Tariff Small HPPs: Build on drinking water AMD(USc)/kWh 10.284(2.71) pipeline Build on irrigation system AMD(USc)/kWh 15.424(4.06) Build on natural water flow AMD(USc)/kWh 23.136(6.09) Wind Power Plant AMD(USc)/kWh 42.902(11.29) New Small HPPs: AMD(USc)/kWh 19.0(5.0) Modeling of Armenian Power System in GTMax Modeling of Armenian Power System in GTMax
Isolated Operation of Armenian Power System Scenarios of Power System Development
2015 – With / Without New Renewables
2020 – With / Without New Renewables
with technical minimum to NPP operation without technical minimum to NPP operation Armenian System’s full GTMax Model GTMax Model of NPP/TPP GTMax Model of NPP/TPP input data
Armenian NPP MW 450 Hrazdan TPP MW 400 600 Yerevan TPP MW 350 60 500 300
25050 400 200 40 300 150
10030 200 50 20 100 0 1 8760 10 0 1 8760 0 1 8760 GTMax Model of Sevan-Hrazdan & Vorotan HPP Cascades GTMax Model of Sevan-Hrazdan & Vorotan HPP Cascades Input Data
Sevan-Hrazdan Cascade of HPP MW 300 Vorotan Cascade of HPP MW 350 250
300 200 250 150 200
100 150
10050
500 1 8760 0 1 8760 GTMax Model of Renewables/Networks/Consumers GTMax Model of Renewables/Networks/Consumers Input Data
Lori Wind Farm MW 2.5 Small HPPs MW 60 2.0
50 1.5 40
1.0 30
0.5 20
0.0 10 1 8760 0 1 8760 Summary of Model Results Example of Model Results
DaDaiillyy LoadLoad Curve,Curve, January,January, 2020,2020, withwith newnew RERE, with/o NPPNPP technicaltechnical minimumminimum
Total Generation
1600 1600
1400 1400
Zod Wind Farm Zod Wind Farm 1200 Vorotan cascade 1200 Vorotan cascade Sevan-Hrazdan cascade Sevan-Hrazdan cascade Karakhach Wind Farm Karakhach Wind Farm 10001000 New Small HPPs
MW New Small HPPs MW Loriberd HPP Loriberd HPP Shnokh HPP Shnokh HPP 800 800 HrazdanHrazdan 5 5--thth unitunit YerevanYerevan CC CC NewNew NPP NPP 600 600 LoriLori Wind Wind Farm Farm SmallSmall HPPsHPPs HrazdanHrazdan TPP TPP 11--44 unitsunits 400400 InternalInternal ConsumptionConsumption
200200
00 217241 218242 219243 220244 221245 222246 223247 224248 225249 226250 227251 228252 229253 230254 231255 256232 257233 258234 259235 260236 261237 262238 263239 264240 Summary of Model Results. 2015
Main Economic Indicators
250
200
150 217.75 230.58 100
50 33.57 35.15 0 Weighted average cost, $/MWh Total cost, mln. $ W/o Renewables 33.57 217.75 With Renewables 35.15 230.58 Summary of Model Results. 2020
Main Economic Indicators
800
700
600
500 650 797
400
300 200 334 410 77 83 44 54 100
0 Weighted average cost, $/MWh Total cost, mln. $
W/o Renewables with NPP min 77.41 650.28 With Renewables with NPP min 83.37 797.13 W/o Renewables w/o NPP min 43.67 334.26 With Renewables w/o NPP min 53.58 410.01 Summary of Model Results
GHG Emission
6000
5000
4000 2015 2020 with 2020 without NPP min NPP min 3000
2000
1000
0 TPP, GWh CO2, Gg TPP, GWh CO2, Gg TPP, GWh CO2, Gg With Renewables 2081 937 889 411 4153 1931 W/o Renewables 2311 1043 1449 677 5873 2843 Main Conclusions
1. Development of feasible RE potential will add up to 740 MW with annual generation around 1.93 bln. kWh
2. Development of new RE resources will slightly increase generation cost (current gas prices and renewable energy tariffs) Main Conclusions (continued)
3. Integration of new RE into the Power system will reduce the generation from gas-fired thermal units and, thus, decrease the GHG emissions
4. Development of Renewable Energy Resources will increase the energy independence and security of power supply Future Uses/Applications
. Implementation of GTMax for use by the System Operator for economic dispatch of national power system . Development of integrated Armenia-Georgia economic model as a tool for investors and regional power traders and used by system operators to dispatch the integrated system economically. ANY QUESTIONS ????