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The Socio-Economic Impact of Climate Change in Armenia

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The Socio-Economic Impact of Climate Change in Armenia The Socio-Economic Impact of Climate Change in Armenia "Climate Change Impact Assessment" Project Yerevan 2009 The Socio-Economic Impact of Climate Change in Armenia Yerevan 2009 Authors: Elizabeth A. Stanton, Frank Ackerman, Flávia Resende, Stockholm Environment Institute – U.S. Center Tufts University, 11 Curtis Avenue Somerville, MA 02144, www.sei-us.org Reviewers: Anil Markandya, Basque Center for Climate Change, Seth Landau, Consultant Project Title: Climate Change Impact Assessment, UNDP/00049248 Implementing Agency: UNDP Armenia Implementing Partner: Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia UNDP Support: Keti Chachibaia, Regional Technical Advisor for Adaptation, Anna Kaplina, Programme Analyst, Bratislava UNDP Regional Centre for Europe and CIS Diana Harutyunyan, Climate Change Projects Manager, Vahagn Tonoyan, Task Leader, Climate Change Impact Assessment Project, UNDP Armenia Contributions: Cornelia Herzfeld, Ramón Bueno, and Adam Knoff at SEI-U.S, Mikhail Vermishev, Artem Kharazyan, Alvina Avagyan, Gagik Manucharyan, Anahit Hovsepyan, Hamlet Melkonyan, Levon Sahakyan, Ara Keshishyan, Armen Gevorgyan, Armen Nalbandyan, Benyamin Zakaryan, Boris Mnatsakanyan, Levon Chilingaryan, Georgi Fayvush, Lyonik Khachatryan, Rudik Nazaryan, Tigran Sadoyan and Hunan Ghazaryan, National Experts on Climate Change at UNDP Armenia Acknowledgement: This report, initiated by Mrs. Consuelo Vidal, Resident Representative of UNDP Armenia, is a product of cooperation and commitment of an extensive group of local and international consultants and institutions. The authors wish to express their gratitude to all agencies and professionals for their commitment and support in preparation of an independent and stimulating Report. Table of Contents Table of Contents.................................................................................................................................3 List of Tables .......................................................................................................................................4 List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................5 ABBREVIATIONS .............................................................................................................................6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................7 1. INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................................................17 2. THE ARMENIAN CONTEXT .....................................................................................................18 2.1. Economy and population.........................................................................................................19 2.2. Human development in Armenia ............................................................................................21 2.3. Armenia’s greenhouse gas emissions......................................................................................23 2.4. Climate projections for Armenia.............................................................................................25 2.5. Climate change and human development ...............................................................................38 3. SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ARMENIA...............................44 3.1. Higher temperatures and heat waves ......................................................................................45 3.2. Water shortage ........................................................................................................................47 3.3. Reduced agricultural production.............................................................................................55 3.4. Reduced electricity production and price increases................................................................65 3.5. Damage to Forests...................................................................................................................77 3.6. Natural Disasters.....................................................................................................................82 4. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................86 4.1. Conclusions.............................................................................................................................86 4.2. Policy recommendations.........................................................................................................89 Appendix A. Examples of climate adaptation projects......................................................................93 Appendix B. Adaptation funding.......................................................................................................95 Appendix C. Overview of climate economics methodologies...........................................................98 Appendix D. Tables: Population, Poverty, Labor and Unemployment, Industry and Trade...........100 Appendix E. Additional Tables........................................................................................................100 Appendix F. Development Projects .................................................................................................106 Appendix G. Review of Existing Research and Data ......................................................................122 Appendix H. Bibliography...............................................................................................................130 3 List of Tables Table 1: Armenian economy and population, 1991-2007............................................................. 18 Table 2: Armenian GDP and its sectors, 2007 .............................................................................. 19 Table 3: Share of industrial production by marz........................................................................... 20 Table 4: Urban and rural population by marz, 2007 ..................................................................... 21 Table 5: Forecasted changes in average annual temperature and precipitation in Armenia according to a high emission scenario (A2) and a rapid stabilization scenario (B2) ....... 31 Table 6: Factors that enhance vulnerability to climate change impacts........................................ 38 Table 7: Some examples of projections of climate change impacts to water supply and human development from around the world ............................................................................... 39 Table 8: Taxonomy of climate adaptation measures..................................................................... 41 Table 9: Summary of Socio-economic Impacts of Climate Change in Armenia.......................... 44 Table 10: Projected river flow change in 2100 ............................................................................. 49 Table 11: Lake Sevan Basin river flow change............................................................................. 51 Table 12: Agricultural production (2007) ..................................................................................... 57 Table 13: Armenian agricultural products by marz (2005)........................................................... 58 Table 14: Armenian pastures and hayfields by altitude ................................................................ 60 Table 15: Distribution and prevalence of pastures........................................................................ 61 Table 16: Productivity of pastures and feed resources.................................................................. 61 Table 17: River Flow Projections for Metsamor, Hrazdan, and Vorotan Rivers.......................... 68 Table 18: Projected hydroelectric losses from climate change ..................................................... 70 Table 19: Armenian electricity sector, 1992-2007........................................................................ 72 Table 20: Armenian regions by heating degree days .................................................................... 73 Table 21: Armenian power plants and networks........................................................................... 75 Table 22: Armenian forests (in hectares) ...................................................................................... 78 Table 23: Illegal logging in Armenia ............................................................................................ 78 Table 24: Forest first incidence in Armenia (2001-2006)............................................................. 80 Table 25: Prevalence of landslides by marz.................................................................................. 82 Table 26: Prevalence of mudflow prone areas by marz ................................................................ 83 Tables in the Appendices Table A.1: Examples of existing social policies reducing climate change vulnerability ……. 94 Table B.1: Projections of adaptation costs from different sources …………………………... 95 Table D.1: Armenia population and poverty ………………………………………………… 100 Table D.2: Armenia labor …………………………………………………………………… 101 Table D.3: Armenia industry and trade ………………………………………………………. 102 Table E.1: Characteristics of the five State water companies, 2005 …………………………. 103 Table E.2: Area under fruit orchards, vineyards and grain crops in 1990, 2000 and 2004 …… 103 Table E.3:
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