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Bulletin 52 (1978)

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Bulletin 52 (1978) '-- Lc ,2 APR 1979 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THEc PACIFIC Bangkok, Thailand TRANSPORT\- AND COMMUNICATIONSBULLETIN " for Asia and the P aeiIie No. 52 ~ ~ -..~~~ ;; UNrrED NATIONS New York, 1978 ,The Bulletin, a semiannualpublication, origin~tedin 1950, and servesto dissemmateinformation on transport and commu- nication techniquesand developmentsof interest to the region. It is preparedby the ESCAPsecretariat with the help of special correspondentsappointed for this purpose by member and associatemember countries of ESCAP.. The designationsemployed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expressionof any opinion whatsoeveron the part of the Secretariatof the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory city or area, or of its authorities, or concerningthe delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. I ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC Bangkok, Thailand TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS BULLETIN for Asia and the Pacific No. 52 ;'1~f{"",,; ~ ~ -~~~ UNITED NATIONS New York, 1978 UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION SalesNo. E.79.II.F.2 Price: $US 5.00 or equivalentin other currencies CONTENTS Page I. ARTICLES Economic evaluationof completedtransport projects. 1/ Developmentof containertraffic and a~ociatedequipment in the USSR, 1976-1980 """"""'" 4 Highway fmancingin developingcountries 14/ Energyand railways: comparisons,components, specific values and savings. I9~ Urban transport planningin developingcountries. 29 ,/ The formulation of basic conceptsand guidelines for preparation of tourism sub-regionalmaster plans ~ in the ESCAPregion. 33 ThedevelopmentofrailwaysintheUSSR, 41 Containerizedhaulage between Europeand Japanalong the Trans-Siberianroute. 45 .,/ H. NEWS ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS Air transportin Australia. 48 Australia's "last link"paved 49 High-speedtoll road to easetraffic congestionin Bangkok. 50 Industry and tourism in the Republic of Korea spurredby expresswayprogramme. 50 PakistanRailways prepares for a new five.yearinvestment plan 51 Calcutta'srapidtransitsystem 52 Running test of the levitation railway car by JapaneseNational Railways. 52 International Transport Exhibition ("IV A '79"), Hamburg,Federal Republic of Germany-8 June-I July 1979 52 HI. CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS IN TRANSPORT CO.oRDINA~ON PROGRAMMESAND poucms IN MEMBER COUNTRIES OF THE ESCAP REGION Transport coordinationpolicies in NewZealand 54 Strategyfor co-ordinatedtransport developmentin Bangladesh. 57 IV. DOCUMENTATION Recenttransport publications 60 I. ARTICLES ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF COMPLETED tion of a transport project very necessaryand, at the TRANSPORTPROJECTS. sametime, an extremely complexone. This task is very important for all countriesand especiallyfor developing Transport is one of the major parts of the pro- ones where the acceleratedgrowth of the economyis ductive infrastructure of the country. By integrating often being held down by backwardnessand deficiencies separatesectors of the economy and linking economic in some transport facilities or in the transport system regions it createsa big potential for broad spatial and as a whole. For these countries with limited amounts sectoral division of labour and for deepeningspecializa- of immediately availableresources and with high prio- tion of production in regionsand particular enterprises. rities in other sectors,it is of vital importance tp ela- Therefore,the scale,capacity and technologicallevel of borate well groundedpolicies of transport development the transport network and of the rolling stock, as well as well as careful economic analysis of completed as their performance,are significantindicators reflecting transportprojects. technical and economicadvances of the country. Trans- port's impact on the efficiency of the economy cannot A very specialproblem in a numberof developing be overestimated. countries is the absence or incompletness of basic The growth of production, the rise of the mone- transport statistics; this is frequently decisive for the tary sector'sshare of production and the broadeningof degree of accuracy and refinement possible in the foreign trade relations lead to the steadyincrease of the evaluation analysis. Most of these countries have, for over-allcargo volume neededto be moved. On the other instance,initiated only very recently the collection of hand, the complexity of sectoral structure and the highway traffic data. Where highway statistics are processesof specializationand concentrationsof pro- available, they are usually limited to simple traffic duction are causingan increasein the distanceof deli- counts. Therefore, a transport study or survey needs very from the point of production to the consumer. fIrst of all a specialarrangement to collect information Owing to this quantitative and qualitative growth and on origin and destinationof traffic or on the types of change of the economy, freight transport output ex- commodities carried on highways information which pressedin ton-kilometres is rapidly growing. Passenger is hardly ever available.little is usually known about transport demandtoo is growing significantly. vehicle operating costs on different types of surfaces. Another important feature of the transport The concept of project evaluation includes fIrst industry is its ability to acceleratethe turn-overof goods of all the determination of a criterion of economic by reducing delivery time and providing a regularity of efficiency as a guide to assessand selectamong projects.. service which allows a reduction in the necessaryraw Such a criterion is social labour productivity, that is, materialreserves of enterprises. the labour spent to produce a unit of product. But it Finally, transport is distinctive by the fact that should be taken into account that the developmen~ its output is inseparablefrom the consumption of its funds within eachsector are limited and proper distribu- production -which meansthe conveyanceof passengers tion of funds therefore needs economic justification and goods. Since transportation output cannot be based,among others, on evaluationof alreadycompleted ~tored, its reservesmay be created only in the form of projects. It is clear that all economicallyviable projects spare capacity to meet the peaks and rapid growth of in the aggregatewill not necessarilygive a maximum traffic. economicbenefit for a sectoras awhole. The specific featules mentioned above help So, for purposes of current and prospective determine the role of trattsport in the whole economy. planning, the recently completed projects should be But transport development needs large investments. compared among themselvesand with the proposed In the USSR, the total post-war sum of capital invest- ones to det.erminetheir relative economic efficiency. ment in the transportation sector has exceeded10 per cent of total investmentin the economy. The relative economic efficiency of projectscould be determinedfrom the following formula: The high capital-intensity of most transport projects as well as the multiplicity of economicbenefits induced by them, make the task of the economicevalua- * Contributed by the SpecialCorrespondent of the Union of SovietSocialist Republics to ESCAP. Kland~ -capitaljects beinginvestments compared; in two--- pro- So, after the first year hasexpired, the savingfrom - the standpoint of our project will exceedthe sum A Cl and C2 -annualprojects. costs-~ induced by- the by AE and will be equalto A (I + E). Subsequently, after t y~rs the saving of A today will increaseto The results from the above calculationshould be A(I + E)t. This means,that if a certain sumK could be comparedwith the standard co-efficient for capital in- spent, not JlOWbut afteI: t yearsit's presentvalue would vestment. For the USSR economy such an over-all be (I + E)t timesK. coefficient is establishedat presentat the level of 0.12 The_~dexr =, ~t canbe defmedas postp<:>ne- (12 per cent). In the course of economic development me~t co-efficientan~the inverseindex rd =~= (1 + Er such a co.efficient needs to be revisedwithin certain. time periods. Projects with an efficiency co-effient less as the discountingrate. So; to measurethe differencein- than 0.12 are regardedas economicallynon-viable. economic value, future costscan be expressed!n terms To compare a number of projects a criterion of of presentvalues by adjustingat a discountingrate based minimum annualized expensesis u~d. This measure on the co-e~ficientof investmente(ficiency. The prope! consists of annual recurrent (operational) costs and tnethods of comparingbenefits and costswith different annualized total capital cost adjusted to an annual time streamsis, therefore, to discount all future costs amount by using the standard co-efficient for capital and benefitsas of the time a cost is first incurred. investment: Consideringa road as an example of transport CI + EKI = minimum project, the specific features of the cost time streams. Where: KI -total capital cost of the project; should be taken into account. As a-rule the capital investmentis ~preadin time and the project itself has CI -annual recurrent cost of the same a number of implementationp~ses! This can consider- project; ably bias the resultsof economicevaluation; The opera- E -standard co-efficient for capital invest. tional expensesconcerning the road project are also variable owing to the steady growth of traffic density. ment efficiency. Thereforeit would be misleadingto calculatethe average. To assessthe efficiency of investmentin a sector efficiency co-efficient based
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