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november 2009 . Vol 2 . Issue 11 afford higher ransoms. Moreover, while Even if firms minimize their expatriate Hizb Allah’s Domestic AQIM member Mokhtar Belmokhtar’s personnel, AQIM has demonstrated marriage into local families allowed him that it views nationals working for Containment and Regional to be a capable leader in the Sahara, he foreign firms as legitimate targets. In Expansion Strategies seems to be increasingly less motivated addition, AQIM is likely benefiting by Salafi-jihadi ideology and now from advances in navigation and By Benedetta Berti harbors more conventionally criminal, communication technology. Further for-profit aspirations.24 His apparently enhancement of GPS capabilities in during the past few months, Lebanese ideologically rigorous counterpart, the Sahara and Sahel are likely, and Hizb Allah has pursued two strategic Yahya Djouadi, who was ostensibly AQIM will use these improvements to priorities. Within , the appointed by AQIM leader Abdelmalek facilitate movement around the desert organization is focused on preserving the Droukdel to replace the wavering and improve its ability to plan and internal balance of power and preventing Belmokhtar, is from northern Algeria carry out attacks. Similarly, cell phone the international community from and is at pains to make alliances in the penetration will make it easier for AQIM increasing its role within the country. Sahara. As a result, he has been unable cells to communicate with one another At the same time, while concentrating to carry out effective campaigns there. and foster technology transfers such its efforts on protecting its political and as how to build improvised explosive military power internally, Hizb Allah Yet the increased presence of foreign devices. is investing significant political capital energy and mining firms throughout to improve its regional role and status, the Sahara and Sahel in the coming Aid that the U.S. and are both politically and operationally. years means that AQIM will have a providing Sahel and Sahara states richer target set. AQIM, in both the to enhance their counterterrorism This article will first analyze Hizb Sahara and in northern Algeria, has capabilities is unlikely to allow local Allah’s domestic strategy, showing targeted foreign companies in addition governments to keep pace with AQIM’s how the organization is stifling the to representatives of state security increasing target opportunities and actions of the newly elected government services. There are abundant examples capabilities. France has provided while also curtailing the influence of of AQIM attacks against foreign firms in military assistance to President the international community within northern Algeria, where they have been Mohamed Abdel Aziz’s government in Lebanon. It will then examine Hizb historically more prevalent. Attacks Mauritania and the has Allah’s regional strategy, which includes against Brown and Root-Condor, a KBR given military aid to Mali, but the aid becoming increasingly confrontational subsidiary, in 2006 and subsequent is calibrated to the threat that AQIM with “moderate” governments in the attacks against Canadian engineering, poses at the present and not its likely region, particularly . procurement and construction firm capabilities in the coming years. Algeria SNC-Lavalin in 2008 and again in 2009 has refused U.S. counterterrorism Hizb Allah’s Domestic Strategy have made foreign firms extremely assistance, even though the AQIM In the aftermath of its electoral defeat aware of the threat AQIM poses to threat there is perhaps most acute and is in Lebanon’s June 2009 parliamentary their operations and personnel.25 likely to grow most significantly in light elections, Hizb Allah has been relying Foreigners in general are privileged of Algeria’s aggressive push to expand on its popular legitimacy and political AQIM targets. While not an exhaustive oil and gas exploration and production power to limit the elected government’s list, the kidnapping of German in the southwest of the country. freedom of political maneuver. tourists in 2003 in Tamanrasset, the Specifically, the Hizb Allah-led March murder of French tourists in Aleg in These factors mean that in the coming 8 coalition stalled the formation of the Mauritania in 2006, the kidnapping of years, new investments in the Sahara new executive cabinet for months by Austrian tourists in Tunisia who were and Sahel will come under increasing demanding to be rewarded with at least transported to Mali in 2008, and the danger from criminals and bandits, 11 of the 30 available cabinet seats. If capture of Swiss and French tourists along with fighters belonging to AQIM. granted, this request would have both in 2009 are all indicative of this trend. Unfortunately, it does not appear that conferred the organization veto power Likewise, foreign diplomats and foreign governments in the region are currently over any substantial national reform installations in the Sahara and Sahel prepared to neutralize this growing that could threaten the group, and at have been at the top of AQIM’s target threat. the same time it would have weakened list, as exemplified by the capture of two the elected majority.1 In the end, the Canadian diplomats in December 2008 Dr. Geoff D. Porter is the Director of two camps agreed to form a “unity and the suicide attack on the French Middle East and Africa at Eurasia Group, cabinet” composed of 15 members of Embassy in August 2009. the political risk consulting firm. He writes the March 14 coalition, 10 members frequently on energy and security issues in from the Hizb Allah-led opposition, and North Africa. During the course of his work five independent candidates appointed he has traveled extensively throughout the by President Michel Suleiman.2 24 Geoffrey York, “Diplomat Robert Fowler’s Kidnap- region. per has Powerful Terrorist Links,” Globe and Mail, Octo- 1 “PM Al-Sanyurah After Cairo Meeting: Third Blocking ber 13, 2009. Experience Failed,” Lebanese National News Agency, 25 Bertrand Marotte, “SNC-Lavalin Won’t Evacuate June 14, 2009. Workers,” Globe and Mail, October 22, 2009. 2 “Without National Consensus New Cabinet Will

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This agreement is still considered the aftermath of the June 2009 elections, head. All those standing behind favorable to Hizb Allah, which counts Hizb Allah’s parliamentary leader, [these accusations] will regret on the “independent” candidates to Mohammed Raad, warned that a political [it] and let everyone know that prevent the elected government from crisis would explode if the government what we did on May 7, 2008 [the implementing reforms that would hurt insisted on disarming Hizb Allah.4 organization’s armed “takeover” the organization’s strategic interests. of West Beirut] was just a shaking At the same time, while actively of a hand. We are powerful to the At the core of the ongoing crisis lies Hizb engaging the domestic political system to point where we can turn ten tables Allah’s strategic interest in preserving maintain the current balance of power, and not just one.7 its freedom of action and preventing the Hizb Allah has been increasingly active March 14 forces from addressing the in attempting to curtail the influence Concurrently, Hizb Allah has also issue of Hizb Allah’s military apparatus of the international community within increased its opposition against the and their de facto control of southern Lebanon, directing its efforts against UNIFIL presence in Lebanon, especially the recently established UN Special after Hizb Allah sympathizers and “Hizb Allah has Tribunal for Lebanon, and the locally- UNIFIL troops clashed on July 18, deployed forces of the 2009.8 On that occasion, UNIFIL troops become increasingly Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). were prevented from inspecting a village confrontational with the From the outset, Hizb Allah has been in southern Lebanon where a Hizb Allah adamantly against the idea of creating weapons depot had just exploded.9 so-called ‘moderate Arab an international tribunal to investigate During the confrontation with the local regimes,’ including , political killings in Lebanon. Even after Hizb Allah militia, 14 UN peacekeepers the actual establishment of the UN were injured.10 Hizb Allah initially Egypt, and Special Tribunal for Lebanon tasked blamed the peacekeepers’ alleged lack the Gulf states.” with investigating the 2005 attack that of coordination with the Lebanese killed former Prime Minister Rafiq army for the incident—a claim quickly Hariri, the group has maintained a non- denied by the international troops.11 cooperative position. Furthermore, Subsequently, Hizb Allah changed its Lebanon. It has been a strategic during the past six months, Hizb Allah’s position and directed its accusations imperative of the Lebanese-Shi`a animosity and rhetoric against the against the UNIFIL presence. Lebanese organization to rely on all available tribunal have increased even further. Hizb Allah Member of Parliament tools—political and military—to avoid Nawaf Mousawi said, “The UN has no this occurrence. This was exemplified First, the group reacted angrily to sovereignty over south Lebanon because by Hizb Allah’s violent reaction in May accusations advanced by the German the area is not under international 2008 to the attempts by the cabinet of newspaper Der Spiegel directly implicating mandate.” Mousawi blamed the former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora them in the Hariri assassination.5 international troops for “overstepping to remove Hizb Allah sympathizer Following the release of the report, their boundaries,” reminding them that Wafic Shkeir from his post as security Hizb Allah Secretary General Hassan UNIFIL’s role should be solely “limited chief at Hariri International Airport, Nasrallah stated that the article was to supporting the Lebanese army when and to shut down the organization’s an “act of Israeli provocation against the army requests support, and they communications network.3 Similarly, in the Shiites.”6 Second, in the aftermath cannot move according to the request of of the elections, Hizb Allah adopted a the Israeli side.”12 In this sense, in the Achieve Nothing,” Agence France-Presse, November 11, progressively more hostile tone against past few months Hizb Allah has actively 2009. the tribunal. On July 28, 2009, the engaged in trying to limit UNIFIL’s 3 The May 2008 events are the culmination of a political organization threatened the court, freedom of action and its role within crisis that began in December 2006 between the ruling stating: southern Lebanon. coalition and the Hizb Allah-led opposition. The predica- ment was over the failure to create a national unity gov- Hizb Allah is a steady mountain ernment between the majority coalition (the March 14 Al- and the international tribunal liance) and the opposition parties. This lack of agreement will not shake one hair on its led to the resignation of the opposition ministers from 7 “March 14 Sources to Rai Aam: Nasrallah Put Gun Prime Minister Siniora’s cabinet in November 2006 and Rafiq Hariri’s Future Movement are located. The seizure Back on the Table,” al-Rai al-Aam, July 28, 2009. to a long-standing boycott, causing the de facto paralysis of Beirut led to a series of bloody engagements between 8 “South Lebanon Residents Prevent Peacekeepers of the Lebanese government and deeply impairing its de- the different sectarian groups, leading to the worst epi- Searching After Ammunition Explosion,” Xinhua, July cision-making process. The crisis escalated from peace- sodes of violence since the civil war. See “ Mili- 18, 2009. ful protests to armed confrontation in May 2008, after tants Take Over West Beirut,” CNN, May 9, 2008. 9 Zeina Karam, “UN Says South Lebanon Weapons the March 14 government attempted to remove Hizb 4 David Schenker, “Now Comes the Hard Part,” Weekly Cache a Violation,” Associated Press, July 15, 2009. Allah sympathizer Wafic Shkeir from his post as secu- Standard, June 22, 2009. 10 “14 UN Peacekeepers Injured in Lebanon Protest,” rity chief at the Hariri International Airport and to shut 5 Erich Follath, “New Evidence Points to Hezbollah in Agence France-Presse, July 18, 2009. down the organization’s communications network. Hizb Hariri Murder,” Der Spiegel, May 23, 2009. 11 “Clashes Between Southerners & UN Forces, A Threat Allah viewed these acts as a war declaration and on May 6 “Hezbollah Chief Describes Report of Der Spiegel as To UNIFIL Role,” al-Hayat, July 20, 2009. 7, 2008 the organization sent gunmen to seize parts of Israeli Provocation Against Shiites,” Xinhua, May 26, 12 “Hezbollah Lawmaker Says South Lebanon not Un- West Beirut—the Sunni area where most supporters of 2009. der International Mandate,” Xinhua, July 21, 2009.

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Hizb Allah’s Regional Strategy with weakening Egypt’s position as a said that the group had been monitoring While the majority of the international broker in the Arab-Israeli conflict.16 tourist resorts in the Sinai, an area with media’s attention has focused on the Within Lebanon, members of the ruling a high concentration of international domestic aspect of Hizb Allah’s political March 14 Coalition, including Christian and Israeli tourists.20 Eventually, 26 and military strategy, the past few chief Samir Geagea, individuals, including two Lebanese months have also revealed an increased criticized Hizb Allah for its escalation and five Palestinian nationals, were level of international activism for the of words against Egypt and accused the brought to trial and formally charged group, both through direct operational group of attempting to topple the Arab with spying for Hizb Allah. They are involvement as well as through political regime.17 currently awaiting sentencing by the and diplomatic interventions. State Security Emergency Court.21 The In the months following the end of state prosecutor indicated that 18 of the First, Hizb Allah has become hostilities in Gaza, tensions between captured militants were providing Hizb increasingly confrontational with the Hizb Allah and Egypt did not deescalate; Allah logistics information regarding so-called “moderate Arab regimes,” on the contrary, the crisis only deepened both tourist resorts in the Sinai, as including Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia as Egypt uncovered a Hizb Allah well as Suez Canal schedules, and that and the Gulf states. Specifically, Hizb network operating clandestinely within Hizb Allah had transferred more than Allah relied on the last Israeli military $38,000 to the local cell, tasking them operation in Gaza in December 2008 to to acquire explosives.22 January 2009 to criticize and chastise “Although the actual some of these countries for their lack of extent of Hizb Allah’s Hizb Allah first reacted by denying support for . For instance, Hizb any interest in carrying out operations Allah’s head of international relations, operations in Egypt within Egypt,23 and accused Cairo of Nawaf Mousawi, repeatedly lamented remains unknown, it is fabricating accusations in retaliation for the “suspicious silence” of Arab leaders, the organization’s criticisms of Egypt’s while Secretary General Nasrallah clear that the group had stance on Gaza.24 By April 10, 2009, conducted a personal campaign against an organized logistic, and however, Secretary General Nasrallah Egypt. Similarly, the Lebanese-Shi`a admitted that at least one of the arrested organization also used the at least to some extent militants—Sami Hani Shehab, the to issue declarations casting doubts on operational, presence in alleged ringleader—was a Hizb Allah the role of Saudi Arabia and its peace agent dispatched to Egypt to aid Hamas proposal. Hizb Allah Shaykh Qassem the country—and that it in smuggling weapons through the strengthened this thesis by stating “we is now employing these Egyptian-Palestinian border. He added: believe that the mentioned initiative “if aiding the is a crime, [the Saudi initiative] was buried after external cells in a way that then I am guilty and proud of it.”25 the Gaza war,” adding that “as long as signals a trend of increased During a later rally in Beirut, Nasrallah exists, it will pose a threat to the also stated: entire region.”13 regional activism.” We have not formed an organization In particular, Hizb Allah is engaged in an in Egypt and we do not plan to open confrontation with Egypt. At first, form an organization in Egypt. We Secretary General the country. In April 2009, Egypt did not target Egypt, its security, harshly criticized Egypt for not opening announced the arrests of approximately order, and stability, and we are the Rafah Crossing during the last Gaza 50 Egyptians, Palestinians and Lebanese not concerned with its internal war, and called the Egyptian people militants, all accused of having ties with affairs. We work for a very clear to protest and rise up against their Hamas and Hizb Allah, and of operating cause; namely, supporting our government: “Let the Egyptian people on behalf of the latter organization.18 Palestinian brothers.26 take to the streets in the millions. Can Egypt’s state prosecutor also indicted the Egyptian police kill millions of the individuals for plotting to carry out 14 19 Egyptians? No, they cannot.” The terrorist operations within Egypt. As 20 Maggie Michael, “Egypt: Hezbollah Cell Plotted organization’s stance, backed by Iranian the investigations unfolded, Egyptian Against ,” Associated Press, April 12, 2009. 15 President , cabinet minister Mufed Shehab 21 Sarah El Deeb, “Egypt Refers 26 Hezbollah Suspects was rebutted by the Egyptian media, disclosed that the local authorities had to Trial,” Associated Press, July 26, 2009. which reacted by accusing the Shi`a seized explosive belts from the cell, and 22 Ibid. group of being an Iranian proxy tasked 23 Muhammad Shumaysani, “Egypt and the Aggressive 16 “Egyptian FM Slams Hezbollah Chief Over Protest Claims Against Hezbollah,” al-Manar, April 9, 2009. 13 Husayn Asi, “Shaykh Qassem Affirms Arab Peace Calls,” Agence France-Presse, December 29, 2008. 24 Muhammad Abdallah, “The Egyptian Government Initiative was Buried,” al-Manar, January 22, 2009. 17 “Lebanese Pro-Gov’t Leaders Criticize Verbal Attack and the Hostile Accusations Against Hezbollah,” al-Ma- 14 “Hezbollah Calls for Urgent Steps on Gaza Among On Egypt,” Xinhua, December 30, 2008. nar, April 8, 2009. Arab Leaders,” Xinhua, December 27, 2008; Al-Manar, 18 “Egypt Arrests 50 for Alleged Extremist Ties,” Asso- 25 “Lebanese Hezbollah Chief Denies Plotting Attacks December 28, 2008. ciated Press, April 7, 2009. Against Egypt,” Xinhua, April 10, 2009. 15 “Lebanon: Hezbollah Leader Criticizes Egyptian 19 “Egypt Accuses Hezbollah of Plotting Attacks,” al- 26 “Lebanese Hezbollah Did Not Target Egyptian Secu- Stand on Gaza,” al-Manar, January 14, 2009. Arabiya, April 7, 2009. rity, Stability,” al-Manar, May 2, 2009.

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Within Egypt, the role and increase its internal strength.30 Nasrallah’s message was directed both was one of the few local political forces Even more recently, the UAE-based toward the people living under regimes that stood up to defend Hizb Allah, newspaper al-Ittihad claimed that three deemed by the organization as “corrupt” stating that the government’s indictment Hizb Allah militants were killed during by encouraging them to embrace the was a political move to discredit the a confrontation between the Yemeni “resistance,” as well as toward the group.27 The head of the Brotherhood’s government and Houthist rebels in the Lebanese people by urging them to political bureau, Isam al-Aryan, Saada region, in northern . If the shift their regional political alliances. asserted that the accusations were part report is true, it raises questions over In this sense, the secretary general also of Egypt’s plan to pressure Hizb Allah the extent of Hizb Allah’s presence in stated: “ wants to include Lebanon that country.31 in the Syrian-Iranian axis by arming the “Hizb Allah is army.”34 In this sense, both the ongoing political strengthening the tensions between Egypt and Hizb Conclusion ‘resistance bloc’ Allah, and the organization’s enhanced Hizb Allah’s internal strategy of regional presence, can be read as part containing both its political enemies while discrediting the of a larger Iranian plan to expand its and the international community has ‘moderate’ regimes and regional influence by discrediting and been matched by an increased interest questioning the legitimacy of other in adopting a more visible regional role alienating them from their prominent regional players, such and in boosting the “” populations.” as Egypt. With that objective, the as a viable regional political project. organization is actively struggling, both politically and operationally, to further At this point, it is still rather redefine the regional alliances. Hizb difficult—given the paucity of reliable to change its hostile position toward Allah is strengthening the “resistance information available—to estimate the Egyptian government.28 Palestinian bloc” while discrediting the “moderate” the extent and impact of Hizb Allah’s political forces were divided in reacting regimes and alienating them from their operational presence outside of to Egypt’s accusations. -aligned populations. Lebanon. Nevertheless, the fact that forces condemned Hizb Allah’s actions, the group has been remarkably more whereas Hamas rebutted the charges Secretary General Nasrallah articulated visible in the region, more active in and added that the accusations were Hizb Allah’s regional strategy in detail supporting local “resistance” cells, and part of an intimidation campaign against during the September 18, 2009 al-Quds more vocal against the “Arab moderate Hamas.29 () day celebrations. On that regimes” may signal that the group is occasion, he stressed the fact that the permanently seeking a more prominent Although the actual extent of Hizb organization sees the region as divided and powerful regional role. This could Allah’s operations in Egypt remains between “allies” and “enemies” of the represent both a political and a security unknown, it is clear that the group had “resistance,” and emphasized the need challenge for the group’s enemies in the an organized logistic, and at least to to change the status quo. Referring to Arab world, as well as for Israel. some extent operational, presence in the the moderate Arab regimes, he said that country—and that it is now employing “we have to replace the regimes in the Benedetta Berti is the Bradley Foundation the organization’s external cells in a Arab countries with other regimes that Doctoral fellow at the Fletcher School way that signals a trend of increased are convinced of war in order to send (Tufts University), and a Neubauer regional activism. In fact, although it their armies to war.”32 Recognizing Associate Research Fellow at the Institute is not possible to assess to what extent that this option may not be realistic in for National Security Studies (Tel Aviv Hizb Allah already had an organized the short-term, he stressed the need to University). Ms. Berti specializes in clandestine presence in the region, boost popular resistance throughout international security studies and Middle the group is now increasingly visible the region and added that the entire Eastern politics. and active, shifting from dormant to Middle East should follow the steps of operational. In fact, this rise in external Iran and . In that regard, he also operational activities and regional added: “I know Iran and I know its wise, visibility has not been limited to courageous, and skilful administrator. I Egypt. According to ’s al-Watan, know its leaders and its people and its for example, Hizb Allah has also been stand. I tell you that this Iran will never increasingly active within Kuwait, where abandon the peoples of this region or the the local branch of the organization is resistance movements in this region.”33 currently trying to enhance its political 30 Abdullah al-Najjar, “Hezbollah and the Incursion Into Kuwait,” al-Watan, October 9, 2009. 27 Durayd al-Bayk, “Egypt to Prove ‘Hezbollah Plot,’” 31 “Three Explosives Experts from Hezbollah Killed in Gulf News, April 9, 2009. Saada,” al-Ittihad, October 17, 2009. 28 Ibid. 32 “Nasrallah Commemorates Al-Quds Day,” speech 29 “Hamas MP Says Egypt’s ‘Campaign’ Against Hez- transcript, September 18, 2009. 34 “Nasrallah Says Iran Is Willing To Arm The Leba- bollah Targets Hamas,” Quds Press, April 15, 2009. 33 Ibid. nese Army,” al-Manar, May 29, 2009.

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