Gl B L E It M K T P F Global Equity Market Performance
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Weekly Equity Capital Markets Newsletter Piper Jaffray Asia Securities Limited October 10, 2011 Glo ba l Equit y Mark et Per formance Global Equity Market Update Piper Jaffray Asia Capital Markets Group U.S. stocks rose last week amid optimism that European leaders J. West Riggs (Head of Asia ECM), [email protected], Tel: 852 3755 - 2333 will tame the region’s debt crisis and after American economic data improved. The European Central Bank president announced a bond- Michael Cheung (Principal), [email protected], Tel: 852 3755 - 2323 purchase program to tackle the debt crisis. Stocks rose as a report Amanda Lui (Associate), [email protected], Tel: 852 3755 - 2318 showed that claims for U.S. unemployment benefits rose less than ftforecast ltlast week. USU.S. LbLabor DttDepartment dtdata shdhowed payrolls Michlhael Bassett (Associate), michlhael.w. [email protected], Tel: 852 3755 -2322 climbed by 103,000 workers in September after a revised 57,000 increase in August. Raw-material producers in the S&P 500 surged Gaby Zhang (Analyst), [email protected], Tel: 852 3755 - 2321 6.2 percent last week, the most among ten groups. Last week, the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index advanced 4.4 percent, the Dow rose 1.7 percent to close at 11,103.1, the NASDAQ gained 2.6 percent to close at 2,479.4 and the S&P500 was up 2.1 percent— Global Market Performance breaking a two-week losing streak—to close at 1,155.5. Performance (%) European stocks advanced for a second week as the European Central Bank announced the reintroduction of year-long loans— Last price 1 day 1 week 1 month 2011YTD giving banks access to unlimited cash through January 2013—and Global Indices U.S. jobs data spurred optimism the world’ s largest economy will avoid a recession. The Bank of England said last week that it will Dow Jones 11,103.1 (0.2%) 1.7% (2.7%) (4.9%) boost bond purchases as government budget cuts and Europe’s debt S&P500 1,155.5 (0.8%) 2.1% (3.6%) (9.2%) crisis jeopardize Britain’s economic recovery. The Monetary Policy Committee raised the ceiling for quantitative easing to 275 billion NASDAQ 2,479.4 (1.1%) 2.6% (2.7%) (7.9%) pounds ($423 billion) from 200 billion pounds. National benchmark indexes gained in 14 of Europe’s 18 western markets. France’s CAC FTSE 5,303.4 0.2% 3.4% (0.3%) (10.1%) 40 rallied 3.8 percent and Germany’s DAX increased 3.2 percent. Last Asian Indices week, the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 2.6 percent to reach 231.9, while the FTSE rose 3.4 percent to close at 5,303.4. Hang Seng 17,707.0 3.1% 0.7% (11.7%) (24.4%) Asian stocks pared weekly losses amid optimism Europe will act to HSCEI 8,887.5 3.7% (0.3%) (15.7%) (31.0%) contain its debt crisis. Markets in mainland China were closed for a Shanghai A 2,471.1 0.0% 0.0% (6.2%) (16.0%) weeklong holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.2 percent to 112.95 last week as the European Commission pushed for a Nikkei 225 8,605.6 1.0% (1.1%) (1.8%) (15.9%) coordinated capital injection for banks. Last week, the Nikkei was down 1.1 percent to close at 8,605.6. HK Weekly Market Update Global Indices Performance (Rebased to 100) Hong Kong stocks rose, posting their first weekly gain in five weeks 200 as Europe-related shares advanced amid optimism officials will protect banks from the region’s debt crisis. Stocks also rose after 180 the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission said it would monitor short-selling in the local stock market after seven 160 brokerages called for a ban on the practice. Last week, the Hang Seng Index gained 0.7 percent to close at 17,707.0, while the HSCEI 140 slid 0.3 percent to close at 8,887.5. 120 Among Index constituents, 41 gained and five declined. Among gainers, China Overseas Land & Investment increased 26.0 percent, 100 China Resources Land was up 18.6 percent and Ping An Insurance (Grp) Co of China gained 18.5 percent. Among losers, China Mobile 80 slid 2.0 percent, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) fell by 2.1 percent and The Hong Kong and China Gas 60 Company declined 3.5 percent. 1-Jan-09 21-Jul-09 8-Feb-10 29-Aug-10 19-Mar-11 7-Oct-11 AdAAdiccorddiingng toto SfSouf un H Hoold ldiings,ngs, ththe countrycountry ’s bibiggestgges t real estateesta te S&P 500 NASDAQ FTSE Hang Seng Shang ha i A Webwebsite site owner, owner, China’s China’s home home prices prices drop drop for for the the first first time time in in a a year. year.Prices Prices fell 0.03 fell percent0.03 percent from froma month a month earlier earlier in September. in September. Residential prices rose in 54 of 100100 cities tracked by Soufun and fell in 44 cities, with average home vavalueslues nationwide at 8,877 yuan HSI Sectoral Weekly Performance ($1,396) a square meter. 5.0% 3.9% HSI Weekly Performance 4.0% 3.0% 17,707.0 15 17,172.3 18,000 16,822.2 2.0% 1.0% 10 16,250.3 17,000 10%1.0% 5 9.8 10.8 10.6 16,000 9.7 0.0% 0 15,000 (1.0%) (0.3%) 3-Oct-11 4-Oct-11 6-Oct-11 7-Oct-11 (0.6%) Property Finance Comm/Indu Utilities Turnover (in US$ billion) Close Source: DataStream, Reuters, Hang Seng Index Website 1 Weekly Equity Capital Markets Newsletter Piper Jaffray Asia Securities Limited October 10, 2011 Piper Jaffra y China Inde x PJ China Index Performance Since January 2009 Sector Breakdown and Performance(1) Current Level: 1,176.60 Financial/Real Estate 6% 3,000 Health Care 10% Telecom , Media & 2,500 Technology 37% Clean Tech/Energy 12% 2,000 1,500 Consum er 14% Business Services and Industrial Growth 1,000 21% 4.0% 2.3% 500 2.0% 1-Jan-09 21-Jul-09 8-Feb-10 29-Aug-10 19-Mar-11 7-Oct-11 0.0% PJ China Index (2.0%) (1.7%) (2.3%) (4.0%) Week-to-date change (14. 29) -120%1.20% (6.0%) (4.9%) (5.0%) 2011 Year-to-date change (1,473.51) -55.60% (8.0%) LTM change (1,142.79) -49.27% (10.0%) (12.0%) 6-month change (1,356.15) -53.54% (12.5%) (14.0%) 2011 Year-to-date high (pts) 2,788.24 18-Jan-11 Clean Tech/Energy Telecom, Media & Technolo 2011 Year-to-date low (pts) 1,118.28 3-Oct-11 Business Services and Industrial Growth Health Care Consumer Financial/Real Estate Top Five Weekly Gainers and Losers 40.0% 29.6% 24.1% 22.8% 30.0% 20.1% 14.8% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% (10.0%) (20.0%) (30.0%) (20.8%) (21.6%) (23.3%) (23.8%) (40.0%) (50.0%) (46.4%) (60.0%) JinkoSolar VanceInfo Fushi AsiaInfo-Linkage Sky Mobi VisionChina Lentuo Le Gaga China Real CDC Software Holding Technologies Copperweld Media International Holdings Estate Information Note: (1) Sector Breakdown as of Oct 7, 2011; Sector Performance chart represents weekly percentage change (2) Piper Jaffray China Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of U.S. exchange listed securities of companies with significant exposure to the Chinese economy and market capitalization between US$100m and US$2b. The index was developed with a base level of 1,000 as of January 1, 09 (Please refer to the last page of this report for constituents) Source: Bloomberg 2 Weekly Equity Capital Markets Newsletter Piper Jaffray Asia Securities Limited October 10, 2011 Macro Indicators and Global Currencies Performance – Since January 2009 Gold (UBS-IB) Copper (NYC) CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) US$/oz US$/lb Current Level: US$1,638.6 per ounce Current Level: US$3.301 per pound Current Level: 36.20 2,000 5 60 1,800 50 4 1,600 40 1,400 3 30 1,200 2 20 1,000 800 1 10 1-Jan-09 21-JlJul-09 8F8-Fe b-10 29-Aug-10 19-Mar-11 7-Oct-11 1-Jan-09 21-JlJul-09 8F8-Fe b-10 29-Aug-10 19-Mar-11 7-Oct-11 1-Jan-09 21-JJlul-09 88F-Feb -10 29-Aug-10 19-Mar-11 7-Oct-11 Spot WTI Crude Stowe Global Coal Index Baltic Dry Index US$/barrel Current Level: US$82.98 per barrel Current Level: 4,354.58 Current Level: 2000 120 8,000 5,000 110 70007,000 4,000 100 6,000 90 3,000 80 5,000 70 4,000 2,000 60 3,000 50 1,000 2,000 40 30 1,000 0 1-Jan-09 21-Jul-09 8-Feb-10 29-Aug-10 19-Mar-11 7-Oct-11 1-Jan-09 21-Jul-09 8-Feb-10 29-Aug-10 19-Mar-11 7-Oct-11 1-Jan-09 21-Jul-09 8-Feb-10 29-Aug-10 19-Mar-11 7-Oct-11 Euro Sterling Japanese Yen EUR/US$ GBP/US$ JPY/US$ Current Level: 1.3375 Current Level: 1.5558 Current Level: 76.71 1.6 1.8 105 151.5 171.7 100 1.4 1.6 95 1.3 1.5 90 1.2 1.4 85 1.1 1.3 80 1.0 1.2 75 1-Jan-09 21-JlJul-09 8F8-Fe b-10 29-Aug-10 19-Mar-11 7-OtOct-11 1J1-Jan- 09 21- Ju l- 09 8F8-Fe b10b-10 29- Aug- 10 19- Mar- 11 7O7-Oc t11t-11 1J1-Jan- 09 21- Ju l- 09 8F8-Fe b10b-10 29- Aug- 10 19- Mar- 11 7Ot117-Oct-11 Source: DataStream, Reuters 3 Weekly Equity Capital Markets Newsletter Piper Jaffray Asia Securities Limited October 10, 2011 HK and UUS.S.