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China | Equity Strategy China 14 December 2014 EQUITY RESEARCH China The Year of the Ram: Stars Aligned for a Historic Bull Run Key Takeaway The Ram, the Bull and the Heavenly Twins – the stars are now aligned for China’s historic bull-run. China's stock market offers massive untapped potential given the high savings rate and low penetration. “Keeping Growth Steady” is a top priority for 2015; we expect SHCOMP and HSCEI to test 4,050 and 15,420, up 38% and 37% from current levels. As confidence gains momentum, volatility becomes the investors’ best friend. CHINA China Gallops into a Historic Bull Run. On Nov 20, 2013, we wrote “The Year of the Horse will see China unleash its full potential, as President Xi ushers in a new era of profound change.” “We expect capital markets to gradually gain confidence in China’s ability to drive fundamental reforms and expect Chinese stocks to enter a historic multi-year bull run.” Indeed, 2014 has been a remarkable year. As of Dec.12, SHCOMP surged 39% to 2938, breaking a seven-year bearish trend to become the best performing index in the world. China Stock Market: Massive Untapped Potential. According to China Household Finance Survey, property accounted for 66.4% of total Chinese household assets in 2013. Financial assets accounted for a mere 10.1% of household wealth. While over 61% of Chinese families have bank deposits, only 6.5% of them invested in the stock market. Given China’s high savings rate and low stock market penetration, we believe the A-share market offers significant upside potential. We believe the rationalization of risk, increasing comfort with online transactions and the impact of social media will help accelerate asset re-allocation and drive stock market participation higher. Stars Are Aligned; Keeping Growth Steady a Top Priority. As highlighted at the Christie Ju, CFA * Central Economic Work Conference, the key focus in 2015 is to keep economic growth Equity Analyst +852 3743 8012 [email protected] steady. Rising disposable income, lower energy costs and a US recovery will drive domestic Laban Yu * consumption and export growth. We believe the surprise rate cut is a clear “step up” in Equity Analyst government’s pro-growth policy. China has entered a monetary easing cycle; we expect +852 3743 8047 [email protected] Venant Chiang * more RRR and rate cuts ahead to drive a broad based demand recovery. Equity Analyst +852 3743 8013 [email protected] Our Bull Case for A-Share is Gaining Momentum. China’s citizens display remarkable Sean Darby * confidence in the government and its leaders. The Third Plenum outlined a clear roadmap Chief Global Equity Strategist towards future prosperity. China is still the largest contributor to global economic growth. +852 3743 8073 [email protected] Jessie Guo, PhD * Chinese stocks are minimally correlated to the rest of the world. We expect the foreign Equity Analyst ownership of A-shares will increase from 1% to 15-20% by 2020. +852 3743 8036 [email protected] Johnson Leung * How to Position for the Big Rally? We are bullish on the outlook of A shares, and expect Equity Analyst HSCEI to play catch up, as foreign investors gain confidence with reduced risk premium, +852 3743 8055 [email protected] Jessica Li, Ph.D. * reform dividends and improving fundamentals. We recommend investors to buy the airline, Equity Analyst bank, broker, clean energy, conglo, consumer staples, environmental service, healthcare, +852 3743 8010 [email protected] insurance, Internet, IPP, machinery, property and shipping sectors, and underweight coal, Leon Liao * Equity Analyst gold and steel. 852 3743 8021 [email protected] Cynthia Meng * Jefferies’ 2015 Top Picks. Among overseas listed companies, our Top Buys are Baidu, Equity Analyst Bank of China-H, CEI, CGN Power, CITIC Securities-H, COLI, CPIC-H, Haitong Securities-H, +852 3743 8033 [email protected] Ping An-H and Sinopharm. For A-share investors, we like the outlook of Anhui Conch-A, Bank Baron Nie, CFA, AIAA * Equity Analyst of China-A, CITIC Securities-A, Haitong Securities-A, Ping An-A, SAIC and Vanke. Investors +852 3743 8747 [email protected] may find Daqing Railway, Kweichow Moutai and Tongrentang interesting as leaders in their Po Wei * respective sectors. Equity Analyst +852 3743 8067 [email protected] * Jefferies Hong Kong Limited Jefferies does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Jefferies may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications, important disclosure information, and information regarding the status of non-US analysts on pages 154 to 158 of this report. Equity Strategy China 14 December 2014 Exhibit 1: HSCEI target 15,420 (10x 2016 P/E) Exhibit 2: SHCOMP target 4,050 (15x 2016 P/E) 6000 19000 15,420 5000 4,050 15000 4000 +37% 11000 +38% 3000 7000 2000 3000 1000 2015 2015 Target Target Source: Bloomberg price as of Dec 11, 2014, Jefferies estimates Source: Bloomberg price as of Dec 11, 2014, Jefferies estimates Exhibit 3: JEF sector allocation Sector Allocation Over-weight Equal-weight Under-weight Sector Fundamental Sector Fundamental Sector Fundamental Airlines Positive Autos Neutral Coal Negative Banks Neutral Cement Neutral Gold Negative Brokers Positive Consumer discretionary Neutral Packaging Paper Negative Clean Energy Positive Gaming Neutral Steel Negative Conglomerate Positive Oil/Gas Positive Consumer Staples Positive Ports Neutral Environmental Positive Tech Neutral Healthcare Positive Telecom Neutral Insurance Positive Internet Positive IPPs Positive Machinery Positive Property Positive Shipping Positive Source: Jefferies Exhibit 4: Top picks for overseas stocks Exhibit 5: China A share stock ideas Mkt Cap Price PE PB Mkt Cap Price PE PB Company Ticker US$ mn trading 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E Company Ticker US$ mn trading 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E Baidu BIDU US 78,929 225.12 36.0 25.9 9.2 6.8 Anhui Conch 600585 17,447 19.96 8.8 7.9 1.6 1.4 Bank of China 3988 HK 149,991 4.10 5.7 5.5 0.9 0.8 Bank of China 601988 149,991 3.34 5.9 5.6 0.9 0.8 CEI 257 HK 6,605 11.42 30.9 24.3 3.2 2.9 China Vanke 000002 21,694 12.03 8.1 7.3 1.5 1.3 CGN Power 1816 HK 20,605 3.62 19.3 20.6 2.4 2.2 Citic Securities 600030 43,421 24.71 40.5 32.1 2.9 2.7 Citic Securities 6030 HK 43,421 27.15 27.4 17.9 2.5 2.3 Daqin Railway 601006 24,678 10.27 10.1 9.0 1.8 1.6 COLI 688 HK 24,199 22.95 8.3 7.0 1.5 1.3 HT Securities 600837 29,098 19.55 36.9 29.6 2.9 2.7 CPIC 2601 HK 36,310 32.65 19.7 17.1 2.1 1.9 Kweichow Moutai 600519 32,466 175.89 12.9 11.8 3.7 3.2 HT Securities 6837 HK 29,098 18.32 20.6 15.2 2.1 1.9 Ping An 601318 79,362 56.82 11.5 9.9 1.9 1.5 Ping An 2318 HK 79,362 73.70 11.9 10.2 2.0 1.6 SAIC 600104 40,043 22.47 8.6 7.6 1.6 1.4 Sinopharm 1099 HK 10,030 28.10 20.0 16.9 1.7 1.6 Tongrentang 600085 4,688 22.12 37.5 31.5 5.2 4.7 Average 20.0 16.1 2.8 2.3 Average 18.1 15.2 2.4 2.1 Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies, priced as of Dec 11, 2014 Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies, priced as of Dec 11, 2014 page 2 of 158 Christie Ju, CFA, Equity Analyst, +852 3743 8012, [email protected] Please see important disclosure information on pages 154 - 158 of this report. Equity Strategy China 14 December 2014 The Year of the Ram: Stars Are Aligned China Stock Market - Massive Untapped Potential 4 The Third Plenum: A Roadmap for Future Prosperity 8 2015: Keeping Growth Steady a Top Priority 11 The Bull Case for China A Shares 13 Our Journey Begins with China 2025 16 China Macro: Monetary Relaxation 26 Jefferies Sector Allocation & Top Picks 2014 Sector Performance 33 Summary of Sector Views 35 2015 Sector Allocation & Top Picks 37 China 2015 Sector View Autos & Machinery 72 Consumer 76 Conglomerate & Gaming 81 Energy (Oil & Gas, Coal) 87 Financials (Banks, Insurance & Brokers) 92 Healthcare 95 IPPs, Clean Tech & Environmental Services 101 Metals & Mining (Cement, Steel & Gold) 113 Property 126 TMT (Telecom, Internet & Tech) 131 Transportation (Airlines, Ports & Shipping) 139 page 3 of 158 Christie Ju, CFA, Equity Analyst, +852 3743 8012, [email protected] Please see important disclosure information on pages 154 - 158 of this report. Equity Strategy China 14 December 2014 China stock market – massive untapped potential The potential for asset reallocation With an extraordinarily high savings rate, Chinese citizens should have ample liquidity to invest. In the past decade, much of this liquidity was funnelled towards real estate. The remainder was kept as bank deposits, with some yield chasing through shadow banking products. Equity markets were given short thrift. According to China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), property accounted for 66.4% of total Chinese household assets in 2013. Financial assets accounted for a mere 10.1% household wealth.
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