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Gl B L E It M K T P F Global Equity Market Performance Weekly Equity Capital Markets Newsletter Piper Jaffray Asia Securities Limited September 26, 2011 Glo ba l Equit y Mark et Per formance Global Equity Market Update Piper Jaffray Asia Capital Markets Group U.S. stocks witnessed mixed performance last week. Stocks J. West Riggs (Head of Asia ECM), [email protected], Tel: 852 3755 - 2333 continued to decline until Thursday, as banking counters tumbled after Moody's cut U.S. lenders' credit ratings of Bank of America, Michael Cheung (Principal), [email protected], Tel: 852 3755 - 2323 Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Market sentiment weakened following Moody’s downgrade, as investors feared that central banks are Amanda Lui (Associate), [email protected], Tel: 852 3755 - 2318 running out of measures to prevent a recession. The Federal Reserve signa ldled siifiignificant downs ide rikisks to the economy, stating Mic hae l Bassett (Assoc iate ), mihichae l.w. bassett@p jc.com, TlTel: 852 3755 -2322 that risks to the economy have increased and concerns grew that policy makers will fail to spur growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Gaby Zhang (Analyst), [email protected], Tel: 852 3755 - 2321 Average plunged 6.4%, its worst weekly decline since 2008, to close at 10,771.5. However, on Friday, U.S. stocks advanced, trimming their biggest weekly decline since October 2008 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, amid speculation that policy makers will act to Global Market Performance prevent a global financial crisis from getting worse. Last week, S&P was down 6.5 percent to close at 1,136.4. Performance (%) European stocks witnessed the biggest weekly drop in seven weeks as the Federal Reserve said it sees significant downside risks for the Last price 1 day 1 week 1 month 2011YTD economy and speculation grew that policy makers will be unable to Global Indices solve the debt crisis. Stocks declined, as the ppyolicy makers failed to allay investor concern that the European debt crisis is spreading and Dow Jones 10,771.5 0.4% (6.4%) (4.9%) (7.7%) the economy is weakening. European Commission President Jose Barroso stated that policy makers should consider issuing joint Euro- S&P500 1,136.4 0.6% (6.5%) (3.5%) (10.6%) area bonds and must develop tools to make that possible as a measure to tackle the European debt crisis. However, on Friday, NASDAQ 2,455.7 0.0% (6.4%) (0.5%) (8.8%) European shares reversed declines amid speculation that central 5,066.8 0.5% (5.6%) (2.7%) (14.1%) banks will take measures to prevent a financial crisis. Last week, the FTSE Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 6.1 percent to close at 216.9, while Asian Indices the FTSE slid 5.6 percent to close at 5,066.8. Hang Seng 17,668.8 (1.4%) (9.2%) (9.2%) (24.6%) Asian stocks tumbled last week—extending their largest weekly loss since 2008—and metals declined as a pledge by the Group of 20 HSCEI 9,033.1 (1.8%) (11.9%) (11.9%) (29.9%) nations (G20) to tackle rising risks failed to ease concerns that the global economy might witness anotheranother recession. Last week, the Shanghai A 2,548.5 (0.40%) (2.0%) (4.2%) (13.3%) MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which is heavily weighted to Japanese stocks, dropped 7.1 percent to close at 111.7, taking its losses from a Nikkei 225 8,560.3 0.0% (3.4%) (0.9%) (16.3%) May 2 high to more than 20 percent, while the Nikkei was down 3.4 percent to close at 8,560.3. HK Weekly Market Update Global Indices Performance (Rebased to 100) Hong Kong stocks ended lower last week, dragging the benchmark 200 Hang Seng Index to its worst weekly decline in almost three years on concerns that policy makers are running out of tools to avert 180 recession as Europe’s debt crisis worsens and economic growth in the U.S. slows. However, on Friday, stocks pared weekly losses after policy makers from the Group of 20 nations vowed to strong ly 160 address heightened risks to the global economy and pushed Europe to contain its sovereign debt crisis. Last week, the Hang Seng Index 140 declined 9.2 percent to close at 17,668.8, while the HSCEI slid 11.9 percent to close at 9,033.1. 120 Among Index constituents, three gained and 43 declined. Among 100 gainers, China Merchants Holdings increased 0.5 percent, China Resources Power was up 0.3 percent and Hang Lung Properties gained 0.2 percent. Among losers, Aluminum Corporation of China 80 (CHALCO) slid 18.2 percent, Esprit Holdings fell by 16.0 percent and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China declined 13.4 percent. 60 1-Jan-09 19-Jul-09 3-Feb-10 21-Aug-10 8-Mar-11 23-Sep-11 According to the data released by HSBC purchasing managers' index (PMI), China's manufacturing activity continued to contract S&P 500 NASDAQ FTSE Hang Seng Shanghai A for the third consecutive month in September, with both production and new orders declining during the month, as turbulence in the U.S. and Europe affected demand for exports. The HSBC preliminary PMI for China's manufacturing sector fell to a two- HSI Sectoral Weekly Performance month low of 49.4 in September from August's final reading of 49.9. 0.0% (2.0% ) HSI Weekly Performance (1.7% ) (4.0% ) 15 17,912.0 17,668.8 21,000 (6.0% ) 19,014.8 18,824.2 10 18,918.0 20,000 19,000 (8. 0% ) 5 10.7 12.5 6.9 8.2 8.4 18,000 0 17,000 (10.0% ) (8.7% ) (9.9% ) 19-Sep-11 20-Sep-11 21-Sep-11 22-Sep-11 23-Sep-11 (12.0% ) (10.5% ) Utilities Com m /Indu Property Finance Turnover (in US$ billion) Close Source: DataStream, Reuters, Hang Seng Index Website 1 Weekly Equity Capital Markets Newsletter Piper Jaffray Asia Securities Limited September 26, 2011 Piper Jaffra y China Inde x PJ China Index Performance Since January 2009 Sector Breakdown and Performance(1) Current Level: 1,298.89 Financial/Real Estate 3,000 6% Health Care 10% Telecom , Media & 2,500 Technology 37% Clean Tech/Energy 12% 2,000 1,500 Consum er 14% Business Services and Industrial Growth 1,000 21% 500 0.0% 1-Jan-09 19-Jul-09 3-Feb-10 21-Aug-10 8-Mar-11 23-Sep-11 (2.0%) PJ China Index (4.0%) (6.0%) Week-to-date change ((4184.81) -12.46% (5.7 %) (8.0%) 2011 Year-to-date change (1,351.23) -50.99% (8.0%) (10.0%) LTM change (774.32) -37.35% (12.0%) (10.8%) (11.5%) (12.0%) 6-month change (1,140.17) -46.75% (14.0%) 2011 Year-to-date high (pts) 2,788.24 18-Jan-11 (16.0%) (15.2%) 2011 Year-to-date low (pts) 1,273.94 22-Sep-11 Health Care Business Services and Industrial Growth Consumer Financial/Real Estate Telecom, Media & Technology Clean Tech/Energy Top Five Weekly Gainers and Losers 15.0% 9.1% 10.0% 6.9% 6.0% 4.1% 3.8% 5.0% 0.0% (%)(5.0%) (10.0%) (15.0%) (20.0%) (25.0%) (30.0%) (28.3%) (28.8%) (35.0%) (30.6%) (32.0%) (33.1%) (40.0%) Deer Consumer Concord Global Education Synutra China Ming Yang Suntech Power Tudou Holdings China Xiniya LDK Solar Co Jinkosolar Products Medical and Technology International Wind Power Holdings Co Fashion Holding Co Group Group Note: (1) Sector Breakdown as of Sep 23, 2011; Sector Performance chart represents weekly percentage change (2) Piper Jaffray China Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of U.S. exchange listed securities of companies with significant exposure to the Chinese economy and market capitalization between US$100m and US$2b. The index was developed with a base level of 1,000 as of January 1, 09 (Please refer to the last page of this report for constituents) Source: Bloomberg 2 Weekly Equity Capital Markets Newsletter Piper Jaffray Asia Securities Limited September 26, 2011 Macro Indicators and Global Currencies Performance – Since January 2009 Gold (UBS-IB) Copper (NYC) CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) US$/oz US$/lb Current Level: US$1,655.3 per ounce Current Level: US$3.543 per pound Current Level: 41.25 2,000 5 60 1,800 50 4 1,600 40 1,400 3 30 1,200 2 20 1,000 800 1 10 1-Jan-09 19-JlJul-09 3-FbFeb-10 21-Aug-10 8M8-Mar-11 23-Sep-11 1-Jan-09 19-Jul-09 3-Feb-10 21-Aug-10 8-Mar-11 23-Sep-11 1-Jan-09 19-JlJul-09 3-FbFeb-10 21-Aug-10 8M8-Mar-11 23-Sep-11 Spot WTI Crude Stowe Global Coal Index Baltic Dry Index US$/barrel Current Level: US$79.96 per barrel Current Level: 4,434.34 Current Level: 1920 8,000 120 5,000 110 7, 000 4,000 100 6,000 90 5,000 3,000 80 70 4,000 2,000 60 3,000 50 1,000 2,000 40 30 1,000 0 1-Jan-09 19-JJlul-09 3-FFbeb-10 21-Aug-10 88M-Mar-11 23-Sep-11 1Jan091-Jan-09 19- Jul- 09 3Feb103-Feb-10 21- Aug- 10 8Mar118-Mar-11 23- Sep- 11 11Jan09-Jan-09 19-Jul -09 33Feb10-Feb-10 21-Aug -10 88Mar11-Mar-11 23-Sep -11 Euro Sterling Japanese Yen EUR/US$ GBP/US$ JPY/US$ Current Level: 1.3496 Current Level: 1.5466 Current Level: 76.58 1.6 1.8 105 151.5 171.7 100 1.4 1.6 95 1.3 1.5 90 1.2 1.4 85 1.1 1.3 80 1.0 1.2 75 1-Jan-09 19-JlJul-09 3-FbFeb-10 21-Aug-10 8M8-Mar-11 23-Sep-11 1J1-Jan- 09 19- Ju l- 09 3F3-Fe b10b-10 21- Aug- 10 8M8-Mar- 11 23- Sep- 11 1Jan091-Jan-09 19- Jul- 09 3Feb103-Feb-10 21- Aug- 10 8Mar118-Mar-11 23- Sep- 11 Source: DataStream, Reuters 3 Weekly Equity Capital Markets Newsletter Piper Jaffray Asia Securities Limited September 26, 2011 HK and UUS.S.
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