Job Name:2044532 Date:14-11-03 PDF Page:2044532pbc.p1.pdf Color: Black PANTONE 124 C The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, established in 1943, is a publicly supported, nonpartisan, research and educational organization. Its purpose is to assist policy makers, scholars, businessmen, the press, and the public by providing objective analysis of national and international issues. Views expressed in the institute's publications are those of the authors and do not neces­ sarily reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers, or trustees of AEI. Council of Academic Advisers Paul W. McCracken, Chairman, Edmund Ezra Day University Professor of Busi­ ness Administration, University of Michigan Kenneth W. Dam, Harold 7. and Marion F. Green Professor of Law, University of Chicago Law School Milton Friedman, Paul Snowden Russell Distinguished Service Professor of Eco­ nomics, University of Chicago ; Nobel Laureate in Economic Science Donald C. Hellmann, Professor of Political Science and Comparative and Foreign Area Studies, University of Washington D. Gale Johnson, Eliakim Hastings Moore Distinguished Service Professor of Economics and Provost, [lniversity of Chicago Robert A. Nisbet, Albert Schweitzer Professor of Humanities, Columbia University G. Warren Nutter, Paul Goodloe McIntire Professor of Economics, University of Virginia Marina v. N. Whitman, Distinguished Public Service Professor of Economics, Uni­ versity of Pittsburgh James Q. Wilson, Henry Lee Shattuck Professor of Government, Harvard University Executive Committee Herman J. Schmidt, Chairman of the Board Richard J. Farrell William J. Baroody, Jr., President Richard B. Madden Charles T. Fisher III, Treasurer Richard D. Wood Gary L. Jones, Vice President, Edward Styles, Director of Administration Publications Program Directors Periodicals Russell Chapin, Legislative Analyses AEI Defense Review, Robert A. Goldwin, Seminar Programs Robert J. Pranger, Bruce Palmer, Jr., Co-Editors Robert B. Helms, Health Policy Studies AEI Economist, Herbert Stein, Thomas F. Johnson, Economic Policy Studies Editor Marvin H. Kosters/James C. Miller III, Public Opinion, Seymour Martin Government Regulation Studies Lipset, Ben J. Wattenberg, Co­ W. S. Moore, Legal Policy Studies Editors; David R. Gergen, Rudolph G. Penner, Tax Policy Studies Managing Editor Howard R. Penniman/Austin Ranney, Regulation, Anne Brunsdale, Political and Social Processes Editor Robert J. Pranger, Foreign and Defense William J. Baroody, Sr., Policy Studies Counsellor and Chairman, Laurence H. Silberman, Special Projects Development Conlmittee GER Y AT THE POLLS GER V AT THE p~-~ The Bundestag Election of 1976 Edited by Karl H. Cerny American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research Washington, D.C. Distributed to the Trade by National Book Network, 15200 NBN Way, Blue Ridge Summit, PA 17214. To order call toll free 1-800-462-6420 or 1-717-794-3800. For all other inquiries please contact the AEI Press, 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 or call 1-800-862-5801. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Main entry under title: Germany at the polls. (AEI studies; 208) Includes index. 1. Germany (Federal Republic, 1949- ) Bundestag-Elections-Addresses, essays, lectures. 2. Elections-Germany, West-Addresses, essays, lectures. I. Cerny, Karl H. II. Series: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. AEI studies ; 208. JN3971.A95G48 329'.023'43087 78-15362 ISBN 0-8447-3310-5 AEI Studies 208 © 1978 by American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C. Permission to quote from or to reproduce materials in this publication is granted when due acknowledgment is made. The views expressed in the publications of the American Enterprise Institute are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers, or trustees of AEI. Printed in the United States of America CONTENTS PREFACE Karl H. Cerny THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GERMAN PARTY 1 SYSTEM Gerhard Loewenberg 1 Introduction 1 Continuity and Discontinuity in the German Party System 3 The Impact of Nazism and Military Government 9 Socioeconomic Determinants of the Postwar Party System 17 Political Attitudes toward the Party System 23 Conclusion 27 THE 1976 CAMPAIGN AND ELECTION: AN 2 OVERVIEW David P. Conradt 29 Elections and the German Political System 29 The Course of the 1976 Campaign 37 The Outcome: An Analysis of the Results 48 Concluding Remarks 55 THE CAMPAIGN OF THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC 3 PARTY Kurt Sontheimer 57 From Triumph to Insecurity 57 The State of the Party 59 The Record of the Government and the Role of the Chancellor 62 The SPO Platform 64 Campaign Strategy 66 The Campaign Issues 67 Outcome and Assessment 70 THE FDP IN THE GERMAN PARTY SYSTEM 4 Heino Kaack 77 The Strategy of Self-Sufficiency 77 Landtag Elections and Coalition Policy 83 The 1976 Bundestag Campaign of the FOP 93 The Election Results 102 The Consequences of the Election for the FOP and for the German Party System 107 WINNING WITHOUT VICTORY: THE 1976 CDU 5 CAMPAIGN Werner Kaltefleiter 111 Preelection Campaigning 111 The 1976 Campaign 131 The Outcome 139 Epilogue 143 6 THE CSU CAMPAIGN Paul Noack 147 The csu Tradition 148 The csu on the Eve of the 1976 Election 150 A Two-Front Campaign 154 The Election Results 160 The Aftermath 163 ELECTION THEMES AND THE PRESTIGE 7 NEWSPAPERS Klaus Schonbach and Rudolf Wildenmann 169 Overview 169 Method 173 Results of the Analysis 176 Themes of Commentaries over Time 181 The Influence of the Press 190 Coding Scheme 191 PUBLIC OPINION POLLING IN THE FEDERAL 8 REPUBLIC OF GERMANY Max Kaase 195 The Development of Public Opinion Research in Postwar Germany 197 The Development of Research on the Sociology of Elections 199 The Organization of Political Public Opinion Research 203 Problems of Political Public Opinion Polling 208 The Bundestag Election of October 3, 1976 213 Concluding Remarks 224 APPENDIX: RECENT BUNDESTAG ELECTION STATISTICS Compiled by Richard M. Scammon 227 CONTRIBUTORS 243 INDEX 245 PREFACE Karl H. Cerny Germany at the Polls: The Bundestag Election of 1976 is another in the series of studies of national elections in selected democratic countries sponsored and published by the American Enterprise Insti­ tute for Public Policy Research. The first volumes covered important elections held in 1974: the two parliamentary elections in Britain, the Canadian general election, the French presidential election, and the House of Councillors election in Japan. In addition, a volume appeared that discussed the parliamentary elections in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden in 1973, 1975, and 1976. Other important elections in 1975 covered in At the Polls books include the national elections in Aus­ tralia and the referendum on British entry into the Common Market. For 1976, the series includes not only the present volume but also a study of the Italian parliamentary elections; for 1977, studies of the Indian, Irish, Israeli, Greek, Australian, and Spanish elections; and for 1978, studies of the French parliamentary election and the Colom­ bian presidential election. The selection of topics for the seven German and three u.s. con­ tributors to the present volume was guided to a large extent by the format of earlier AEI election studies. Gerhard Loewenberg analyzes the development of the German party system in the post-World War II period and calls attention to the important changes that have oc­ curred since the time of the Weimar Republic. David Conradt describes the institutional framework of the German electoral system, sketches the major outlines of the 1976 election campaign, and examines the outcome for the parties and for the West German political system. There follow four chapters on the major German parties: Kurt Sont­ heimer and Heino Kaack deal with the Social Democratic party (spo) and its ally, the Free Democratic party (FOP); Werner Kaltefleiter and PREFACE Paul Noack with the Christian Democratic Union (cou) and its Bavarian branch, the Christian Social Union (csu). The volume con­ cludes with three somewhat more specialized contributions: Klaus Schonbach and Rudolf Wildenmann test the impact of the four nation­ wide "prestige" newspapers of the German Federal Republic on public opinion formation during the election campaignj Max Kaase traces the development of public opinion polling in West Germany in the post-World War II period and analyzes survey findings important for the 1976 campaignj and in an appendix Richard Scammon presents useful detailed statistics on recent German parliamentary elections. The national election of October 3, 1976, was the eighth since the establishment of the Federal Republic of Germany in 1949. The eligible electorate totaled 41.6 million voters. They were being asked to choose 496 members from among 3,244 candidates for the Bundes­ tag, the major legislative organ of the German Parliament. (Berlin, because of its special occupation status, sends 22 additional nonvoting members to the Bundestag.) As in other parliamentary systems, the outcome of a Bundestag election helps determine the choice of the German chancellor and his cabinet. Although there is a second cham­ ber of the German Parliament, the Bundesrat, it is not directly elected by the German voters but rather is composed of cabinet members (or their delegates) of the ten state governments. (Once again, Berlin sends nonvoting members as a city-state.) The partisan make-up of the Bundesrat does not affect the composition of the German cabinet. Because of its absolute as well as suspensive veto power, however, the Bundesrat can affect the outcome of the legislative process. The immediate background to the 1976 Bundestag election cam­ paign was dominated by two features. For one thing, the election was perceived to be a real contest. Neither side had an overwhelming advantage. If anything, the opposition parties, the CDU/CSU, appeared to have an edge over the government parties, the SPD and FDP, because of their success in a series of recent state elections. Specifically, in the state assembly elections held between 1974 and 1976, the CDU/CSU had received a composite 51.4 percent of the votes.