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UCLA Electronic Theses and Dissertations UCLA UCLA Electronic Theses and Dissertations Title Globalization, Realignment, and Geographic Cleavages in Four Developed Democracies Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1j63p2wq Author Vitalone, Antonio Isidoro Lorenzo Publication Date 2021 Peer reviewed|Thesis/dissertation eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Los Angeles Globalization, Realignment, and Geographic Cleavages in Four Developed Democracies A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Antonio Isidoro Lorenzo Vitalone 2021 © Copyright by Antonio Isidoro Lorenzo Vitalone 2021 ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Globalization, Realignment, and Geographic Cleavages in Four Developed Democracies by Antonio Isidoro Lorenzo Vitalone Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science University of California, Los Angeles, 2021 Professor Michael F. Thies, Chair In recent years, developed Western democracies have seen the rapid rise of new political forces, including movements commonly described as “populist”, “nationalist” or “sovereigntist”, but also new forms of opposition against these movements. A growing body of research identifies these changes as the product a realignment driven by the differential impact of globalization on these societies. In this dissertation, I build on this research by arguing that geography plays a key role in shaping this realignment. The benefits of globalization tend to concentrate in large metropolitan areas, while the rest of the country bears the brunt of its negative effects. As a result, developed democracies see the rise of a political cleavage opposing these two geographic entities, with large urban areas increasingly distinguishing themselves from less-dense communities in their voting patterns and other political behaviors. I test this argument by examining geographic ii variations in socioeconomic and electoral patterns in four major developed democracies: France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. I find clear evidence for this dynamic in three countries, with Germany presenting some null findings. Complementing the geographic analysis, I also examine individual-level attitudes and behavior through recent, high-quality survey data from the United States. This data reveals that the political cleavage between large urban areas and the rest of the country persists even when controlling for individual socioeconomic characteristics. This research sheds light on a major transformation in Western politics, which has already resulted in stunning electoral upsets with major repercussions for world politics. iii The dissertation of Antonio Isidoro Lorenzo Vitalone is approved. Kathleen Bawn Jeffrey B. Lewis Ronald L. Rogowski Michael F. Thies, Committee Chair University of California, Los Angeles 2021 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS • Introduction...................................................................................................................p. 1 • Chapter I: Globalization, Geography, and Political Cleavages: A Theoretical Framework.....................................................................................................................p. 5 o What is a Realignment?........................................................................................p. 7 o Understanding Recent Political Changes...........................................................p. 19 o From Social Divide to Political Conflict.............................................................p. 31 o Hypotheses.........................................................................................................p. 43 • Chapter II: The Lay of the Land: Cases and Data....................................................p. 47 o Four Developed Democracies............................................................................p. 49 o Charting Metropoles and Periphery...................................................................p. 63 o The Dependent Variables...................................................................................p. 72 • Chapter III: Metropoles and Periphery under Globalization...................................p. 78 o Education Levels................................................................................................p. 80 o Labor Force Structure........................................................................................p. 89 o Foreign Influence and Multiculturalism...........................................................p. 107 o Other Indicators...............................................................................................p. 119 o Conclusion........................................................................................................p. 126 v • Chapter IV: Electoral Realignment across Geography...........................................p. 128 o Realignment across Three Countries................................................................p. 130 o Germany and the Limits of a Model..................................................................p. 153 o Conclusion........................................................................................................p. 167 • Chapter V: Geographic Divide and Individual Attitudes.......................................p. 169 o The Nationscape Survey...................................................................................p. 171 o Modeling Political Attitudes and Behavior.......................................................p. 177 o The Impact of the Geographic Cleavage...........................................................p. 185 o Conclusion........................................................................................................p. 192 • Conclusion..................................................................................................................p. 193 • Appendix A: Categorization of Urban Areas...........................................................p. 198 • Appendix B: Logistic Regression Models.................................................................p. 217 • References...................................................................................................................p. 263 vi LIST OF FIGURES Chapter II • Figure 2.1: Population by Area Type, France, 2016........................................................p. 67 • Figure 2.2: Map of French Municipalities by Area Type................................................p. 67 • Figure 2.3: Population by Area Type, Germany, 2011....................................................p. 68 • Figure 2.4: Map of German Administrative Districts by Area Type...............................p. 69 • Figure 2.5: Population by Area Type, England and Wales, 2011...................................p. 70 • Figure 2.6: Map of House of Commons constituencies in England and Wales (1997-2005) by Area Type..................................................................................................................p. 70 • Figure 2.7: Map of House of Commons constituencies in England and Wales (2010-2019) by Area Type..................................................................................................................p. 70 • Figure 2.8: Population by Area Type, United States, 2010.............................................p. 71 • Figure 2.9: Map of United States Counties by Area Type..............................................p. 72 Chapter III • Figure 3.1: Highest Degree Attained by Area Type, France, 2015.................................p. 82 • Figure 3.2: Highest Schooling Attained by Area Type, Germany, 2011........................p. 84 • Figure 3.3: Highest Qualification by Area Type, England and Wales, 2011..................p. 86 • Figure 3.4: Share with a University Degree by Area Type, England and Wales, 2011..p. 87 • Figure 3.5: Highest Degree Attained by Area Type, United States, 2015-2019.............p. 88 vii • Figure 3.6: Share of Inactive Groups by Area Type, France, 2014.................................p. 92 • Figure 3.7: Active Population Breakdown of Occupation Categories by Area Type, France, 2014................................................................................................................................p. 93 • Figure 3.8: Active Population Breakdown of Broad Industries by Area Type, France, 2014................................................................................................................................p. 94 • Figure 3.9: Active Population Breakdown of Occupational Categories by Area Type, Germany, 2011...............................................................................................................p. 96 • Figure 3.10: Active Population Breakdown of Industries by Area Type, Germany, 2011................................................................................................................................p. 98 • Figure 3.11: Working-Age Population Breakdown of Occupational Categories by Area Type, England and Wales, 2011...................................................................................p. 101 • Figure 3.12: Working-Age Population Breakdown of Industries by Area Type, England and Wales, UK, 2011....................................................................................................p. 103 • Figure 3.13: Active Civilian Population Breakdown of Occupational Categories by Area Type, United States, 2015-2019....................................................................................p.
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