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Ecology and Biodiversity Working Group 2 Report: ECOLOGY AND BIODIVERSITY Editors: Kasey R. Jacobs1, Lisamarie Carrubba2, and Ernesto L. Díaz1 Contributing Authors (In Alphabetical Order): Richard Appeldoorn3, Roy Armstrong3, Lisamarie Carrubba2, Ricardo J. Colón-Rivera4, Jorge Corredor3, Yasmin Detrés3, Carlos Diez5, Fernando Gilbes3, Carmen González6, William Gould7, Rosana Grafals-Soto3, Edwin A. Hernández-Delgado3, Nilda Jimenez5, Craig Lilyestrom5, Melissa Meléndez3, Chris Nytch3, Coralys Ortiz5, Ernesto Otero-Morales3, Antares Ramos2, Neftali Rios-López3 , Loretta Roberson3, Jorge E. Saliva8, Mayra Sanchez3, Clark Sherman3, Susan Silander8, Brenda Soler-Figueroa3, Ernesto Weil3 1 Department of Natural and Environmental Resources - Coastal Zone Management Program 2 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration 3 University of Puerto Rico 4 Texas A&M University 5 Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources (PRDNER) 6 PRDNER - Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve 7 USDA Forest Service – International Institute of Tropical Forestry 8 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Acknowledgments: This report is a product of the project Puerto Rico Coastal Adaptation Project carried out by the Puerto Rico Coastal Zone Management Program and funded by NOAA’s OCRM through Section 309 of the Coastal Zone Management Act. Our special appreciation goes to PRCCC member Jorge E. Saliva, PhD, who sadly passed away soon after completion of the seabirds and shorebirds section and after presenting his exceptional work at our July PRCCC meeting. The climate and conservation community will profoundly miss Jorge. We also thank Jess K. Zimmerman of the Institute for Tropical Ecosystem Studies at the University of Puerto Rico – Rio Piedras and Maria Uriarte of the Department of Ecology, Evolution & Environmental Biology at Columbia University for their contributions to the forest section. Co-author Neftali Rios-López is especially grateful to Dr. Alberto Puente-Rolón for valuable discussion, information, and unpublished data of snakes and other reptiles on their most likely responses to expected climate changes. A special thanks to EPA, DNER, NOAA, USFWS, USGS, and IITF for sponsoring the November 2011 conference Climate Change in the Caribbean: Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands where many key discussions occurred as well as the Puerto Rico Tourism Company, the Puerto Rico Conservation Trust and The Nature Conservancy for their support of conference activities and throughout the development of this report. We also thank the Social and Environmental Research Institute, the South Carolina Sea Grant Consortium, and the University of South Carolina for their development and training of the VCAPS diagrams and process that was used to facilitate WG 2 meeting discussions and the writing process. WG 2 would like to thank the Caribbean Natural Resources Institute as many of our initial discussions were guided by their climate change publications. Lastly, WG2 is grateful for the eight anonymous reviewers for their input and suggestions. TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................. 1 REPORT ORGANIZATION ................................................................................................................................................ 2 BEACH ECOSYSTEMS ...................................................................................................................................................... 3 Introduction to Beach Ecosystems ............................................................................................................................ 3 Status of Beach Ecosystems in Puerto Rico .............................................................................................................. 3 Outcomes and Consequences of Climate Change to Puerto Rico’s Beaches ............................................................ 7 Sea Level Rise ....................................................................................................................................................... 7 Increasing Temperature ........................................................................................................................................ 8 Increasing Carbon Dioxide ................................................................................................................................... 9 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes ......................................................................................................................... 10 Research and Information Needs for Beach Ecosystems ........................................................................................ 11 Summary of Climate Change Impacts on Puerto Rico’s Beach Systems ................................................................ 11 WETLANDS ................................................................................................................................................................... 12 Introduction to Wetlands and their Ecosystem Services ......................................................................................... 12 Status of Wetlands Worldwide, in the Caribbean, and in Puerto Rico .................................................................... 16 Worldwide ........................................................................................................................................................... 16 Caribbean Wetlands ........................................................................................................................................... 16 Puerto Rico’s Wetlands....................................................................................................................................... 17 Outcomes and Consequences of Climate Change on Wetland Ecosystems ............................................................ 18 Sea Level Rise ..................................................................................................................................................... 18 Changes in Salinity ............................................................................................................................................. 19 Increased Temperature ....................................................................................................................................... 19 Increased Carbon Dioxide .................................................................................................................................. 20 Precipitation Changes ........................................................................................................................................ 20 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes ......................................................................................................................... 21 Adaptive Capacity of Wetlands ............................................................................................................................... 21 2 Research and Information Needs ............................................................................................................................ 23 Summary of Climate Change Impacts on Puerto Rico’s Wetland Ecosystems ....................................................... 24 COASTAL LAGOONS ..................................................................................................................................................... 26 Introduction to Coastal Lagoons .......................................................................................................................... 26 Status and Threats of Coastal Lagoons ............................................................................................................... 27 Outcome and Consequences of Climate Change to Puerto Rico’s Coastal Lagoons ....................................... 27 Sea Level Rise ..................................................................................................................................................... 27 Precipitation Changes and Freshwater Influx .................................................................................................... 28 Increased Temperature ....................................................................................................................................... 28 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes ......................................................................................................................... 29 Research Gaps and Information Needs ............................................................................................................... 29 Summary of Climate Change Impacts on Puerto Rico’s Coastal Lagoons ............................................................. 30 SEABIRDS AND SHOREBIRDS ........................................................................................................................................ 31 Introduction to Seabirds and Shorebirds ................................................................................................................. 31 Seabirds ................................................................................................................................................................... 32 Seabird species .................................................................................................................................................
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